The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

Rep. William R. Keating (D-MA) quietly added JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) while insiders at Janus Henderson Group Plc (JHG) unloaded $641.2 million in stock—and that's just the appetizer before we get to Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) insiders dumping $60 million worth of shares while retail traders chase optical networking fever dreams. Smart money moved $5.1 billion toward the exits today against just $932.9 million in purchases, leaving a $4.2 billion net outflow that tells a very different story than the headlines. Here's what smart money is doing today.

Equity volatility remains in normal territory with the VIX at 17.82, declining 3.0% week-over-week, suggesting relatively calm expectations for stock market movements in the near term. However, bond market volatility tells a different story, with the MOVE index surging 47.1% to 22.20, indicating heightened uncertainty around interest rate movements despite remaining at historically low absolute levels. This divergence between equity and fixed income volatility gauges reflects contrasting investor sentiment across asset classes, with bond traders pricing in more potential turbulence than their equity counterparts.

The market is displaying narrow leadership with semiconductors, real estate, and technology showing the strongest momentum at 96%, 74%, and 73% respectively, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, and utilities lag significantly below 35%. Index breadth remains relatively weak across major benchmarks, with SPY at 45% and DIA at 47%, though QQQ shows marginally better participation at 54% and transports register 60%. This concentration in a handful of sectors alongside modest overall breadth suggests gains are being driven by a limited number of stocks rather than broad market participation.

As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.73 trillion, up $19.0 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, May 21. The $19 billion weekly increase in liquidity typically correlates with easier financial conditions, as more liquidity in the system has historically reduced pressure on asset prices and supported risk appetite across equity and credit markets.

Pending home sales showed unexpected strength in April with year-over-year growth of 3.2% against expectations of a -0.5% decline, marking the first positive annual reading since early 2023 and suggesting mortgage rates in the mid-6% range may finally be bringing buyers off the sidelines. The API reported a larger-than-expected crude draw of 9.1 million barrels versus the 3.4 million estimate, with markets now watching today's official EIA data and FOMC minutes for clues on whether recent inflation stickiness will delay rate cuts—the minutes particularly important given the Fed's ongoing internal debate about how long to maintain restrictive policy. Tomorrow's housing data presents a potential reality check with starts expected to decline 3.5% after April's 10.8% surge, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is forecast to cool sharply from 26.7 to 18.0, which would still represent solid expansion but suggest some momentum loss in the industrial sector.

Institutional flows this period show ETFs gravitating toward cyclical exposure, with semiconductors drawing the heaviest activity as 5,782 funds added Micron and 5,307 added Intel, while industrial names like Caterpillar attracted 4,206 new positions. The bifurcated positioning—with roughly equal numbers of ETFs entering and exiting the same names—suggests active rotation within sectors rather than broad directional conviction, particularly evident in the chip space where MU saw 3,093 funds reduce alongside its buyers.

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -8.8% 3M +66.0% 1Y +614.1%

5782 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -8.1% 3M +143.7% 1Y +411.5%

5307 ETFs • 0 shares

CAT Caterpillar Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -5.7% 3M +14.4% 1Y +144.9%

4206 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -8.8% 3M +66.0% 1Y +614.1%

3093 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -8.1% 3M +143.7% 1Y +411.5%

2804 ETFs • 0 shares

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +11.4% 3M +57.6% 1Y +24.4%

2292 ETFs • 0 shares

Rep. William R. Keating recently purchased positions in JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Simon Property Group (SPG), and VMware (VMW), while Rep. Dwight Evans sold holdings in American Tower (AMT), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Quanta Services (PWR). The trades show one member adding exposure to financial services, commercial real estate, and technology infrastructure, while another reduced positions across cell tower REITs, life sciences equipment, and specialty contractors.

JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -3.0% 3M -4.2% 1Y +11.7%

Rep. William R. Keating (William R. Keating) • $1,001 - $15,000

SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -2.3% 3M +0.7% 1Y +26.3%

Rep. William R. Keating (William R. Keating) • $1,001 - $15,000

VMW VMware, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -4.8% 3M -13.2% 1Y +19.4%

Rep. William R. Keating (William R. Keating) • $1,001 - $15,000

AMT American Tower Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D +2.3% 3M -1.9% 1Y -12.8%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

- Selling Falling Stock 5D -2.5% 3M -12.8% 1Y +9.0%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

PWR Quanta Services, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -6.7% 3M +37.6% 1Y +107.3%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

Republic Services saw coordinated activity with 21 insiders receiving awards, while Nomad Foods had 9 insiders participate in purchases during the period. On the distribution side, Crown Castle recorded the highest individual transaction count with 194 insiders selling positions totaling $574.5M, followed by DigitalOcean where 22 insiders reduced holdings valued at $561.3M.

RSG Republic Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +6.2% 3M -0.8% 1Y -12.8%

21 insiders • $202.4M

BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $189.7M

NOMD Nomad Foods Limited ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +11.8% 3M -17.9% 1Y -41.8%

9 insiders • $98.9M

JHG Janus Henderson Group plc ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.2% 3M +5.7% 1Y +36.3%

2 insiders • $641.2M

CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -7.4% 3M +4.6% 1Y +24.3%

194 insiders • $574.5M

DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -3.6% 3M +117.9% 1Y +382.5%

22 insiders • $561.3M

38 companies report earnings today, with notable accumulation signals appearing in NVDA and ADI ahead of their results. On the distribution side, TJX and LOW face their prints with recent institutional selling activity. Yesterday's session saw CMBT surge 9.6% and RERE gain 8.5%, while AMRZ dropped 7.8%.