Know What They Know
🐷 PIG ROAST
💬 Word on the Street
Rep. Tim Moore picked up AT&T (T) shares worth up to $50,000 while insiders at Janus Henderson Group (JHG) dumped $641.2 million in a single day — because nothing says "confidence" like a $3.6 billion net outflow from the people who actually know what's happening inside these companies. Meanwhile, ARM Holdings (ARM) is getting a $300 price target after a 94% run, Astera Labs (ALAB) is up 218% and still climbing, and bitcoin miners like Iris Energy (IREN) are suddenly AI companies with 517% gains to show for their identity crisis. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence — and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
▲ + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises — ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops — falling knife risk
▲ - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising — warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops — confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice — it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
SGI
Somnigroup International Inc
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GPN
Global Payments Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BA
The Boeing Company
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
WAT
Waters Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
Equity market volatility remains in normal territory with the VIX at 18.06, registering only a modest 0.4% increase week-over-week, suggesting investors are maintaining relatively steady expectations for stock price swings. In contrast, bond market volatility showed a more pronounced move, with the MOVE index jumping 24.1% to 23.89, though it remains at historically low levels, indicating fixed income traders are pricing in somewhat increased uncertainty around interest rate movements. The divergence between stable equity volatility and rising bond volatility reflects differentiated risk perceptions across asset classes, with fixed income markets appearing more sensitive to recent macro developments than equities.
Market participation shows a narrow leadership profile with semiconductors advancing 96% while utilities and consumer discretionary trail significantly at 13% and 12% respectively, creating a 84-percentage-point dispersion between the strongest and weakest sectors. Index breadth remains modest, with the S&P 500 at 45% participation and the Nasdaq at 54%, indicating that recent gains are concentrated in a small subset of stocks rather than broadly distributed. This combination of strong semiconductor performance alongside weak breadth and lagging defensive sectors like utilities suggests the market is being carried by technology-related momentum rather than broad-based strength.
As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.73 trillion, up $19.0 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, May 21. The $19 billion weekly increase in liquidity typically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets, as more liquidity in the financial system generally reduces funding stress and can flow into equities and other markets.
Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture for inflation pressures, with mortgage rates climbing 10 basis points to 6.56% while crude oil inventories fell by 7.864 million barrels against expectations for a 2.9 million barrel decline—the largest drawdown in over a month that pushed oil prices higher and could complicate the Fed's inflation fight. Gasoline stocks declined less than expected at -1.548 million barrels versus estimates of -2.1 million, offering minor relief on refined product supply. Today's focus shifts to housing market resilience with building permits expected to rebound 0.5% after April's sharp 11.4% plunge, while housing starts are projected to pull back 3.5% to 1.41 million units, and tomorrow brings the closely-watched Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading which collapsed to 48.2 in the prior release—a level not seen since the early days of the pandemic—making any further deterioration a potential signal of weakening consumer spending ahead.
ETF flows this period showed technology sector positioning remained split, with 10 funds adding exposure while an equal 10 reduced positions across semiconductor and cybersecurity names. Within the mixed picture, Micron and Intel saw net additions from roughly 2,900 and 2,500 ETFs respectively, while Palo Alto Networks attracted net inflows from approximately 1,900 funds, suggesting continued institutional rotation toward memory chips and network security despite broader tech uncertainty.
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
⭐
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
⭐
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
⭐
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
⭐
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
⭐
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
⭐
NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
⭐
Congressional trading activity showed Rep. William R. Keating adding positions in defense contractor Northrop Grumman (NOC) and financial giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM), while Rep. Tim Moore purchased AT&T (T). Rep. Dwight Evans reduced holdings across multiple sectors, exiting positions in cell tower operator American Tower (AMT), semiconductor manufacturer Intel (INTC), and utility services company Quanta Services (PWR).
T
AT&T Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
⭐
CONGRESS
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
VMW
VMware, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
AMT
American Tower Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
INTC
Intel Corporation
⭐
CONGRESS
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
⭐
CONGRESS
CPB
Campbell Soup Company
⭐
CONGRESS
Republic Services saw coordinated activity with 21 insiders receiving awards, while Nomad Foods recorded 9 insiders making purchases during the period. On the distribution side, DigitalOcean experienced the broadest exit with 22 insiders collectively selling $561.3 million in shares, followed by Life Time Group where 10 insiders reduced positions totaling $505.1 million.
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
⭐
INSIDER
WGS
GeneDx Holdings Corp.
⭐
INSIDER
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock
⭐
INSIDER
JHG
Janus Henderson Group plc
⭐
INSIDER
DOCN
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
SHC
Sotera Health Company
⭐
INSIDER
FLNC
Fluence Energy, Inc.
⭐
INSIDER
Fifty-seven companies report earnings today, with institutional accumulation patterns observed in WMT and MUFG heading into their releases, while DE and INTU show distribution signals from smart money positioning. Yesterday's session saw notable movement in IMVT surging 21.3% and GDS declining 19.8% following their respective reports. The earnings calendar lightens significantly tomorrow with only five companies scheduled to announce results.
IMVT
Immunovant, Inc.
⭐
MISS
+21.3%
GDS
GDS Holdings Limited
⭐
BEAT
-19.8%
ROIV
Roivant Sciences Ltd.
⭐
BEAT
+10.9%
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+8.7%
ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
-7.9%
URBN
Urban Outfitters, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+7.9%
ENS
EnerSys
⭐
BEAT
-7.9%
BLTE
Belite Bio, Inc
⭐
BEAT
-6.6%
ARCO
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
⭐
BEAT
+6.0%
HAS
Hasbro, Inc.
⭐
BEAT
-5.8%
WMT
Walmart Inc.
⭐
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.
⭐
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.
⭐
ZM
Zoom Communications, Inc.
⭐
BEKE
KE Holdings Inc.
⭐
OXLCN
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
⭐
OXLCG
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 7.95% Notes due 2032
⭐
STEP
StepStone Group Inc.
⭐
ATH-PE
Athene Holding Ltd.
⭐
ATH-PA
Athene Holding Ltd.
⭐
MRX
Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares
⭐
BTDR
Bitdeer Technologies Group
⭐
SB-PC
Safe Bulkers, Inc.
⭐
CDLR
Cadeler A/S
⭐
RAMP
LiveRamp Holdings, Inc.
⭐
GSL
Global Ship Lease, Inc.
⭐
BJ
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
⭐
TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited
⭐
BAH
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation
⭐
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding Limited
⭐
Smart money positioning reveals a divergence between institutional and insider activity, with accumulation signals reaching 30 while distribution signals register at zero, led by International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Sculptor Capital Management (SGI). Institutional flows into ETFs showed split positioning across technology, though Micron and Intel attracted net additions from approximately 2,900 and 2,500 ETFs respectively, while Palo Alto Networks drew inflows from roughly 1,900 funds, indicating continued appetite for memory chips and network security. Congressional activity reflected sector-specific moves as Rep. William R. Keating added defense contractor Northrop Grumman (NOC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), while Rep. Tim Moore purchased AT&T (T), and Rep. Dwight Evans exited American Tower (AMT), Intel (INTC), and Quanta Services (PWR). On the insider front, DigitalOcean saw the broadest exit with 22 insiders collectively selling $561.3 million in shares, followed by Life Time Group where 10 insiders reduced positions totaling $505.1 million, while Republic Services recorded 21 insider awards and Nomad Foods logged 9 insider purchases. Market dynamics reveal a narrowly-led advance with semiconductors dominating at 96% participation while utilities and consumer discretionary lag at just 13% and 12% respectively, creating an 84-percentage-point dispersion that underscores concentrated strength rather than broad-based momentum. Index breadth remains modest with the S&P 500 at 45% participation and the Nasdaq at 54%, while SPY strength registers at 44.9%, confirming gains are concentrated in a small subset of technology names. Volatility conditions show a notable divergence, with the VIX holding steady at 18.06 with only a 0.4% weekly increase, while the MOVE index surged 24.1% to 23.89, signaling that bond markets are pricing in greater uncertainty around interest rate movements even as equity volatility remains calm. This split suggests fixed income traders are more sensitive to recent macro developments than equity participants, particularly as crude oil inventories posted their largest drawdown in over a month at 7.864 million barrels against expectations for only a 2.9 million barrel decline, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's inflation trajectory. Today's focus centers on fifty-seven earnings releases, with institutional accumulation patterns observed in Walmart (WMT) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) heading into results, while Deere (DE) and Intuit (INTU) show distribution signals from smart money positioning. Housing data will test economic resilience as building permits are expected to rebound 0.5% after April's 11.4% collapse, while housing starts are projected to decline 3.5% to 1.41 million units, and tomorrow's Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading takes on heightened significance after the prior release plunged to 48.2—a level unseen since early pandemic days. The combination of rising mortgage rates now at
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.