The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

Rep. Tim Moore picked up AT&T (T) shares worth up to $50,000 while insiders at Janus Henderson Group (JHG) dumped $641.2 million in a single day — because nothing says "confidence" like a $3.6 billion net outflow from the people who actually know what's happening inside these companies. Meanwhile, ARM Holdings (ARM) is getting a $300 price target after a 94% run, Astera Labs (ALAB) is up 218% and still climbing, and bitcoin miners like Iris Energy (IREN) are suddenly AI companies with 517% gains to show for their identity crisis. Here's what smart money is doing today.

Equity market volatility remains in normal territory with the VIX at 18.06, registering only a modest 0.4% increase week-over-week, suggesting investors are maintaining relatively steady expectations for stock price swings. In contrast, bond market volatility showed a more pronounced move, with the MOVE index jumping 24.1% to 23.89, though it remains at historically low levels, indicating fixed income traders are pricing in somewhat increased uncertainty around interest rate movements. The divergence between stable equity volatility and rising bond volatility reflects differentiated risk perceptions across asset classes, with fixed income markets appearing more sensitive to recent macro developments than equities.

Market participation shows a narrow leadership profile with semiconductors advancing 96% while utilities and consumer discretionary trail significantly at 13% and 12% respectively, creating a 84-percentage-point dispersion between the strongest and weakest sectors. Index breadth remains modest, with the S&P 500 at 45% participation and the Nasdaq at 54%, indicating that recent gains are concentrated in a small subset of stocks rather than broadly distributed. This combination of strong semiconductor performance alongside weak breadth and lagging defensive sectors like utilities suggests the market is being carried by technology-related momentum rather than broad-based strength.

As of May 13, Fed net liquidity stands at $6.73 trillion, up $19.0 billion week-over-week, with the next H.4.1 release scheduled for Thursday, May 21. The $19 billion weekly increase in liquidity typically correlates with supportive conditions for risk assets, as more liquidity in the financial system generally reduces funding stress and can flow into equities and other markets.

Yesterday's data painted a mixed picture for inflation pressures, with mortgage rates climbing 10 basis points to 6.56% while crude oil inventories fell by 7.864 million barrels against expectations for a 2.9 million barrel decline—the largest drawdown in over a month that pushed oil prices higher and could complicate the Fed's inflation fight. Gasoline stocks declined less than expected at -1.548 million barrels versus estimates of -2.1 million, offering minor relief on refined product supply. Today's focus shifts to housing market resilience with building permits expected to rebound 0.5% after April's sharp 11.4% plunge, while housing starts are projected to pull back 3.5% to 1.41 million units, and tomorrow brings the closely-watched Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading which collapsed to 48.2 in the prior release—a level not seen since the early days of the pandemic—making any further deterioration a potential signal of weakening consumer spending ahead.

ETF flows this period showed technology sector positioning remained split, with 10 funds adding exposure while an equal 10 reduced positions across semiconductor and cybersecurity names. Within the mixed picture, Micron and Intel saw net additions from roughly 2,900 and 2,500 ETFs respectively, while Palo Alto Networks attracted net inflows from approximately 1,900 funds, suggesting continued institutional rotation toward memory chips and network security despite broader tech uncertainty.

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -8.9% 3M +75.4% 1Y +643.1%

5933 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.1% 3M +166.6% 1Y +456.4%

5492 ETFs • 0 shares

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +8.3% 3M +63.4% 1Y +26.9%

4359 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -8.9% 3M +75.4% 1Y +643.1%

3295 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -1.1% 3M +166.6% 1Y +456.4%

3026 ETFs • 0 shares

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +8.3% 3M +63.4% 1Y +26.9%

2435 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity showed Rep. William R. Keating adding positions in defense contractor Northrop Grumman (NOC) and financial giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM), while Rep. Tim Moore purchased AT&T (T). Rep. Dwight Evans reduced holdings across multiple sectors, exiting positions in cell tower operator American Tower (AMT), semiconductor manufacturer Intel (INTC), and utility services company Quanta Services (PWR).

T AT&T Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.8% 3M -10.6% 1Y -9.2%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.1% 3M -24.8% 1Y +18.7%

Rep. William R. Keating (William R. Keating) • $1,001 - $15,000

JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +0.6% 3M -2.0% 1Y +15.1%

Rep. William R. Keating (William R. Keating) • $1,001 - $15,000

AMT American Tower Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +5.8% 3M -0.4% 1Y -13.0%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -1.1% 3M +166.6% 1Y +456.4%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

PWR Quanta Services, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -8.2% 3M +28.1% 1Y +106.0%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

Republic Services saw coordinated activity with 21 insiders receiving awards, while Nomad Foods recorded 9 insiders making purchases during the period. On the distribution side, DigitalOcean experienced the broadest exit with 22 insiders collectively selling $561.3 million in shares, followed by Life Time Group where 10 insiders reduced positions totaling $505.1 million.

RSG Republic Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +4.2% 3M -4.2% 1Y -14.8%

21 insiders • $202.4M

BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock

2 insiders • $189.7M

NOMD Nomad Foods Limited ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +14.6% 3M -19.8% 1Y -40.5%

9 insiders • $98.9M

JHG Janus Henderson Group plc ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.2% 3M +5.7% 1Y +37.5%

2 insiders • $641.2M

DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.6% 3M +134.8% 1Y +427.6%

22 insiders • $561.3M

LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -2.1% 3M +14.6% 1Y +12.4%

10 insiders • $505.1M

Fifty-seven companies report earnings today, with institutional accumulation patterns observed in WMT and MUFG heading into their releases, while DE and INTU show distribution signals from smart money positioning. Yesterday's session saw notable movement in IMVT surging 21.3% and GDS declining 19.8% following their respective reports. The earnings calendar lightens significantly tomorrow with only five companies scheduled to announce results.