Know What They Know
π· PIG ROAST
π¬ Word on the Street
While Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC) quietly scooped up AT&T Inc. (T) shares worth up to $50,000, insiders at Janus Henderson Group (JHG) were heading for the exits with $641.2 million in salesβpart of a brutal $3.5 billion net outflow day that suggests the smart money crowd isn't feeling particularly bullish right now. Meanwhile, IBM (IBM) is suddenly the hot quantum play at 113 years old, and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) just tacked another 11% onto its mind-bending 1,150% annual run as AI infrastructure mania shows no signs of cooling. Here's what smart money is doing today.
The Big Idea: When insiders, institutions, AND politicians all bet on the same stock? That's convergence β and historically, these aligned signals tend to pack more punch than solo moves. We track the smart money so you don't have to.
ETF Institutional funds adding/removing positions
INSIDER Corporate executives buying/selling their own stock
CONGRESS Politicians making trades (yes, we see you)
β² + Buying Rising Stock: Smart money accumulating as price rises β ideal alignment
+ Buying Falling Stock: Smart money accumulating while price drops β falling knife risk
β² - Selling Rising Stock: Smart money exiting while price still rising β warning signal
- Selling Falling Stock: Smart money exiting as price drops β confirms downtrend
The Bottom Line: Convergence + aligned momentum = strongest setups. Convergence + divergent momentum = proceed with caution. This isn't financial advice β it's intelligence. What you do with it is on you.
IFF
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
SGI
Somnigroup International Inc
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
GPN
Global Payments Inc.
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
BA
The Boeing Company
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
WAT
Waters Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
APG
APi Group Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INSIDER
ETF
Equity market volatility remains in normal territory with the VIX at 17.44, declining 2.4% over the past week, suggesting investor complacency in stocks has held steady. However, bond market volatility tells a different story, as the MOVE index jumped 16.9% week-over-week to 24.46, indicating growing uncertainty in fixed income markets despite remaining at historically low absolute levels. This divergence between calm equity volatility and rising bond volatility reflects increased concern about interest rate movements while stock market participants remain relatively untroubled.
Market leadership shows narrow concentration with Semiconductors, Energy, and Real Estate advancing strongly at 96%, 81%, and 77% respectively, while defensive sectors including Utilities at 13% and Consumer Discretionary at 12% significantly lag. Index breadth reveals a divergence, with the Dow Jones transports showing the strongest participation at 60% while the S&P 500 trails at only 45%, suggesting uneven participation beneath headline moves. The wide dispersion between leading and lagging sectors, combined with modest overall breadth readings, indicates a bifurcated market environment where gains remain concentrated in select areas rather than broadly distributed.
As of May 20, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.71 trillion, down $14.9 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest tightening in financial conditions. The next H.4.1 release is scheduled for Thursday, May 28, which will show whether this liquidity drain continued or reversed.
Yesterday's data painted a split picture as housing showed resilience with building permits surging 5.8% versus the 0.5% estimate and reaching 1.442M (well above the 1.39M forecast), while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index collapsed from 26.7 to -0.4 against expectations of 18.0βa dramatic 27-point swing that marks a sudden contraction after months of expansion. The housing strength and the manufacturing PMI rising to 55.3 versus 53.8 expected helped push the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker up to 4.3% for Q2, though the Philly Fed miss raises questions about whether regional manufacturing weakness could broaden. Today's focus shifts to Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which has been hovering near historically depressed levels at 48.2, and Fed Governor Waller's speech for any signals on rate policy, while CFTC positioning data will show whether speculators maintained their heavy short positions on equities (-143.8K on S&P 500 futures) amid recent market volatility.
Exchange-traded funds displayed mixed positioning in technology and industrials during the period, with 6,278 ETFs adding exposure to Micron Technology and 5,873 adding Intel, while 3,638 and 3,317 ETFs respectively reduced these same semiconductor holdings. Caterpillar attracted inflows from 4,610 ETFs in the industrial machinery space, as the overall flow showed balanced activity with equal numbers of ETFs expanding and contracting positions across sectors.
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
β
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
β
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
β
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
β
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
β
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
β
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
β
Congressional trading activity showed members taking positions in telecommunications and real estate, with Rep. Tim Moore purchasing AT&T (T) and Rep. William R. Keating adding both Simon Property Group (SPG) and VMware (VMW) to their portfolios. On the sell side, Rep. Dwight Evans reduced holdings in tower infrastructure, exiting both American Tower (AMT) and Intel (INTC), while Rep. Sara Jacobs sold Qualcomm (QCOM), indicating some members moved away from semiconductor and telecom infrastructure positions.
T
AT&T Inc.
β
CONGRESS
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
VMW
VMware, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
β
CONGRESS
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
β
CONGRESS
AMT
American Tower Corporation
β
CONGRESS
INTC
Intel Corporation
β
CONGRESS
QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated
β
CONGRESS
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
β
CONGRESS
TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
β
CONGRESS
Recent insider filings show Republic Services (RSG) with 21 insiders receiving equity awards, while BRCB recorded 5 insiders adding positions. On the distribution side, Janus Henderson Group (JHG) reported 2 insiders offloading $641.2M in shares, DigitalOcean (DOCN) saw 12 insiders collectively selling $532.4M, and SelfHelp Community Services (SHC) had 2 insiders disposing of $482.9M in holdings.
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
β
INSIDER
BXDC
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.
β
INSIDER
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock
β
INSIDER
ALKT
Alkami Technology, Inc.
β
INSIDER
WGS
GeneDx Holdings Corp.
β
INSIDER
JHG
Janus Henderson Group plc
β
INSIDER
DOCN
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.
β
INSIDER
SHC
Sotera Health Company
β
INSIDER
FLNC
Fluence Energy, Inc.
β
INSIDER
CVS
CVS Health Corporation
β
INSIDER
Fourteen companies report earnings today, with accumulation signals detected in OXLCP and OXLCN ahead of their reports, while BAH and MNSO show distribution patterns as they prepare to announce results. Yesterday's session saw notable moves in SKE down 15.1%, RL up 12.2%, and NIO down 10.7%. Six additional companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.
SKE
Skeena Resources Limited
β
MISS
-15.1%
RL
Ralph Lauren Corporation
β
BEAT
+12.2%
NIO
NIO Inc.
β
BEAT
-10.7%
CDLR
Cadeler A/S
β
MISS
-9.7%
WMT
Walmart Inc.
β
BEAT
-8.4%
DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
β
BEAT
+8.0%
DE
Deere & Company
β
BEAT
-7.5%
DAO
Youdao, Inc.
β
MISS
-6.1%
NMM
Navios Maritime Partners L.P.
β
BEAT
+5.3%
LSPD
Lightspeed Commerce Inc.
β
MISS
-5.0%
OXLCP
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
OXLCN
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
OXLCG
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 7.95% Notes due 2032
β
ATH-PE
Athene Holding Ltd.
β
ATH-PA
Athene Holding Ltd.
β
SB-PC
Safe Bulkers, Inc.
β
OXLCO
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
β
GSL
Global Ship Lease, Inc.
β
BJ
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
β
ATH-PB
Athene Holding Ltd.
β
SB-PD
Safe Bulkers, Inc.
β
BAH
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation
β
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding Limited
β
ATH-PD
Athene Holding Ltd.
β
VSAT
Viasat, Inc.
β
SVM
Silvercorp Metals Inc.
β
SBR
Sabine Royalty Trust
β
ABVX
Abivax S.A.
β
TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited
β
JOYY
JOYY, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A
β
Smart money flows reveal a complex positioning landscape as market participants diverge in their sector preferences. Institutional money showed balanced but active repositioning in semiconductors, with 6,278 ETFs adding exposure to Micron Technology while 3,638 reduced positions, and 5,873 ETFs adding Intel against 3,317 cutting exposure, suggesting split conviction on chip stocks. Caterpillar attracted inflows from 4,610 ETFs in the industrial machinery space, indicating institutional interest in economically sensitive sectors. Congressional activity leaned toward telecommunications and real estate, with Rep. Tim Moore purchasing AT&T and Rep. William R. Keating adding both Simon Property Group and VMware, while Rep. Dwight Evans exited American Tower and Intel, and Rep. Sara Jacobs sold Qualcomm, reflecting movement away from semiconductor and telecom infrastructure. On the insider front, Republic Services saw 21 insiders receiving equity awards and BRCB recorded 5 insiders adding positions, contrasting sharply with major distributions at Janus Henderson Group where 2 insiders offloaded $641.2M, DigitalOcean with 12 insiders collectively selling $532.4M, and SelfHelp Community Services with 2 insiders disposing of $482.9M in holdings. Market structure reveals a bifurcated environment where gains remain concentrated rather than broadly distributed across the investment landscape. Volatility presents a telling divergence, with the VIX at 17.44 declining 2.4% over the past week suggesting equity investor complacency, while the MOVE index jumped 16.9% week-over-week to 24.46, indicating growing uncertainty in fixed income markets despite historically low absolute levels. Leadership is starkly narrow, with Semiconductors advancing at 96% participation, Energy at 81%, and Real Estate at 77%, while defensive sectors lag with Utilities at just 13% and Consumer Discretionary at 12%. Index breadth reinforces this uneven participation, as the Dow Jones transports show 60% breadth compared to the S&P 500 trailing at only 45%, and SPY strength registers at 45.3%. The market generated 30 accumulation signals with top names including IFF, PANW, and SGI, while distribution signals registered at zero, suggesting selective buying interest rather than broad risk-off behavior. Today's Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading takes center stage against a backdrop of previously depressed levels at 48.2, while Fed Governor Waller's speech could provide critical signals on rate policy direction as bond market volatility continues climbing. The economic data split from yesterdayβbuilding permits surging 5.8% versus the 0.5% estimate to reach 1.442M well above the 1.39M forecast, contrasted against the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index collapsing from 26.7 to -0.4 in a dramatic 27-point swingβraises questions about whether regional manufacturing weakness could broaden despite the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker rising to 4.3% for Q2. Fourteen companies report earnings today with accumulation signals detected in OXLCP and OXLC
Key themes: Watch convergence signals closely. Stocks where insiders, institutions, and politicians agree tend to show stronger directional moves.