The Edge

🐷 PIG ROAST

💬 Word on the Street

While Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC) quietly scooped up AT&T Inc. (T) shares worth up to $50,000, insiders at Janus Henderson Group (JHG) were heading for the exits with $641.2 million in sales—part of a brutal $3.5 billion net outflow day that suggests the smart money crowd isn't feeling particularly bullish right now. Meanwhile, IBM (IBM) is suddenly the hot quantum play at 113 years old, and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) just tacked another 11% onto its mind-bending 1,150% annual run as AI infrastructure mania shows no signs of cooling. Here's what smart money is doing today.

Equity market volatility remains in normal territory with the VIX at 17.44, declining 2.4% over the past week, suggesting investor complacency in stocks has held steady. However, bond market volatility tells a different story, as the MOVE index jumped 16.9% week-over-week to 24.46, indicating growing uncertainty in fixed income markets despite remaining at historically low absolute levels. This divergence between calm equity volatility and rising bond volatility reflects increased concern about interest rate movements while stock market participants remain relatively untroubled.

Market leadership shows narrow concentration with Semiconductors, Energy, and Real Estate advancing strongly at 96%, 81%, and 77% respectively, while defensive sectors including Utilities at 13% and Consumer Discretionary at 12% significantly lag. Index breadth reveals a divergence, with the Dow Jones transports showing the strongest participation at 60% while the S&P 500 trails at only 45%, suggesting uneven participation beneath headline moves. The wide dispersion between leading and lagging sectors, combined with modest overall breadth readings, indicates a bifurcated market environment where gains remain concentrated in select areas rather than broadly distributed.

As of May 20, Fed net liquidity stood at $6.71 trillion, down $14.9 billion week-over-week, indicating a modest tightening in financial conditions. The next H.4.1 release is scheduled for Thursday, May 28, which will show whether this liquidity drain continued or reversed.

Yesterday's data painted a split picture as housing showed resilience with building permits surging 5.8% versus the 0.5% estimate and reaching 1.442M (well above the 1.39M forecast), while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index collapsed from 26.7 to -0.4 against expectations of 18.0—a dramatic 27-point swing that marks a sudden contraction after months of expansion. The housing strength and the manufacturing PMI rising to 55.3 versus 53.8 expected helped push the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker up to 4.3% for Q2, though the Philly Fed miss raises questions about whether regional manufacturing weakness could broaden. Today's focus shifts to Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which has been hovering near historically depressed levels at 48.2, and Fed Governor Waller's speech for any signals on rate policy, while CFTC positioning data will show whether speculators maintained their heavy short positions on equities (-143.8K on S&P 500 futures) amid recent market volatility.

Exchange-traded funds displayed mixed positioning in technology and industrials during the period, with 6,278 ETFs adding exposure to Micron Technology and 5,873 adding Intel, while 3,638 and 3,317 ETFs respectively reduced these same semiconductor holdings. Caterpillar attracted inflows from 4,610 ETFs in the industrial machinery space, as the overall flow showed balanced activity with equal numbers of ETFs expanding and contracting positions across sectors.

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -1.8% 3M +78.0% 1Y +678.0%

6278 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +2.2% 3M +168.7% 1Y +457.1%

5873 ETFs • 0 shares

CAT Caterpillar Inc. ⭐

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -5.9% 3M +13.9% 1Y +149.3%

4610 ETFs • 0 shares

MU Micron Technology, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D -1.8% 3M +78.0% 1Y +678.0%

3638 ETFs • 0 shares

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.2% 3M +168.7% 1Y +457.1%

3317 ETFs • 0 shares

PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ⭐

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.1% 3M +70.0% 1Y +30.0%

2711 ETFs • 0 shares

Congressional trading activity showed members taking positions in telecommunications and real estate, with Rep. Tim Moore purchasing AT&T (T) and Rep. William R. Keating adding both Simon Property Group (SPG) and VMware (VMW) to their portfolios. On the sell side, Rep. Dwight Evans reduced holdings in tower infrastructure, exiting both American Tower (AMT) and Intel (INTC), while Rep. Sara Jacobs sold Qualcomm (QCOM), indicating some members moved away from semiconductor and telecom infrastructure positions.

T AT&T Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D +2.8% 3M -9.4% 1Y -6.8%

Rep. Tim Moore (Tim Moore) • $15,001 - $50,000

SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +1.1% 3M +1.6% 1Y +30.6%

Rep. William R. Keating (William R. Keating) • $1,001 - $15,000

VMW VMware, Inc. ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D -4.8% 3M -13.2% 1Y +19.4%

Rep. William R. Keating (William R. Keating) • $1,001 - $15,000

AMT American Tower Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +7.8% 3M -1.9% 1Y -13.3%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

INTC Intel Corporation ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +2.2% 3M +168.7% 1Y +457.1%

Rep. Dwight Evans (Dwight Evans) • $1,001 - $15,000

QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated ⭐ CONGRESS

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +6.7% 3M +50.3% 1Y +41.1%

Rep. Sara Jacobs (Sara Jacobs) • $500,001 - $1,000,000

Recent insider filings show Republic Services (RSG) with 21 insiders receiving equity awards, while BRCB recorded 5 insiders adding positions. On the distribution side, Janus Henderson Group (JHG) reported 2 insiders offloading $641.2M in shares, DigitalOcean (DOCN) saw 12 insiders collectively selling $532.4M, and SelfHelp Community Services (SHC) had 2 insiders disposing of $482.9M in holdings.

RSG Republic Services, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -0.3% 3M -5.2% 1Y -17.1%

21 insiders • $202.4M

BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ + Buying Rising Stock 5D +9.7%

2 insiders • $189.7M

BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock ⭐ INSIDER

+ Buying Falling Stock 5D -8.1% 3M -49.4%

5 insiders • $73.7M

JHG Janus Henderson Group plc ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.1% 3M +3.1% 1Y +38.7%

2 insiders • $641.2M

DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +0.0% 3M +148.9% 1Y +424.2%

12 insiders • $532.4M

SHC Sotera Health Company ⭐ INSIDER

▲ - Selling Rising Stock 5D +1.4% 3M -10.2% 1Y +22.5%

2 insiders • $482.9M

Fourteen companies report earnings today, with accumulation signals detected in OXLCP and OXLCN ahead of their reports, while BAH and MNSO show distribution patterns as they prepare to announce results. Yesterday's session saw notable moves in SKE down 15.1%, RL up 12.2%, and NIO down 10.7%. Six additional companies are scheduled to report tomorrow.