| Profitability | 69/100 |
| Growth | 65/100 |
| Momentum | 78/100 |
| Quality | 78/100 |
| Earnings Quality | 73/100 |
| Balance Sheet | 63/100 |
| Value | 79/100 |
| Risk (safety) | 100/100 |
| Overall | 60.1/100 |
| Symbol | IS Score |
|---|---|
| TRV | 69 |
| PGR | 57 |
| CB | 61 |
| WRB | 60 |
| CINF | 78 |
| MKL | 50 |
| ALL | 60 |
Both readings sit above the midpoint — business quality at 60 and price structure at 73 out of 100 — so they are not in conflict. The fundamentals and the tape are saying the same thing, which is the case in which either one alone would have been enough.
| Trigger | Where it stands now | What it would mean |
|---|---|---|
| IS Score reaches 75 and holds two consecutive quarters | now 60.1 | would move us up one band |
| IS Score stops falling - one quarter higher than the prior | last four: 59 → 60 → 59 → 60 | the direction matters more than the level |
| Technical vote share back above 50% | now 91% | price structure no longer broken |
| Institutional holder count rises two quarters running | peak 1,762 → now 1,762 | fewer institutions willing to hold is our clearest warning |
This page is InsiderStreet's own reading, produced from the data in the rest of this document. It is not a price target and not investment advice. Analyst consensus and street price targets appear later under their own heading and are the street's numbers, not ours.
| Quarter | Holders | 13F shares | Value | Reported own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 1,762 | 215.2M | $48.5B | 84.0% |
| 2026 Q1 | 1,694 | 212.2M | $41.5B | 82.9% |
| 2025 Q4 | 1,695 | 210.3M | $40.8B | 82.2% |
| 2025 Q3 | 1,625 | 203.8M | $40.7B | 79.6% |
| 2025 Q2 | 1,586 | 211.0M | $39.1B | 82.4% |
| 2025 Q1 | 1,580 | 210.3M | $40.9B | 82.2% |
| 2024 Q4 | 1,551 | 207.8M | $38.0B | 81.2% |
| 2024 Q3 | 1,433 | 204.2M | $36.7B | 79.8% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1,343 | 205.3M | $31.1B | 80.2% |
| 2024 Q1 | 1,337 | 203.8M | $33.7B | 79.6% |
| 2023 Q4 | 1,253 | 201.0M | $27.0B | 78.5% |
| 2023 Q3 | 1,097 | 202.0M | $21.6B | 78.9% |
| Insider | Role | Date | Type | Shares | Value | Post-Txn Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizzo Mario | other: Chief Operating Officer-AIC | 2026-10-03 | EXERCISE | 19 | — | 82,246 |
| Rizzo Mario | other: Chief Operating Officer-AIC | 2026-10-03 | TAX W/H | 8 | $0.00M | 82,238 |
| Rizzo Mario | other: Chief Operating Officer-AIC | 2026-10-03 | EXERCISE | 19 | — | 38 |
| Dugenske John E | other: Pres, Invest. & Corp. Strategy | 2026-10-03 | EXERCISE | 1,581 | — | 14,635 |
| Dugenske John E | other: Pres, Invest. & Corp. Strategy | 2026-10-03 | TAX W/H | 701 | $0.16M | 13,934 |
| Dugenske John E | other: Pres, Invest. & Corp. Strategy | 2026-10-03 | EXERCISE | 1,581 | — | 3,162 |
| Jeevanjee Zulfikar | other: EVP & CTO - AIC | 2026-10-03 | EXERCISE | 2,371 | — | 18,742 |
| Jeevanjee Zulfikar | other: EVP & CTO - AIC | 2026-10-03 | TAX W/H | 1,045 | $0.23M | 17,697 |
| 6-mo decomposition (Form 4) | Txns | Shares | Value | Signal weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S — Open-market sales | 18 | 179,174 | $42.8M | Counted |
| M — Exercises (paired A/D) | 18 | 129,201 | $11.5M | None — mechanics |
| F — Tax withholding | 7 | 3,701 | $0.8M | None — compensation |
| G — Gifts | 5 | 188,382 | $20.7M | None |
| P — Open-market purchases | 0 | 0 | $0 | Counted — none occurred |
| Member | Chamber | Trade | Size band | Traded | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-10-09 |
| Michael Rulli | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-08-12 | 2026-09-03 |
| Michael A. Rulli | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-08-12 | 2026-09-03 |
| Jerry Moran | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-08 |
| Jerry Moran | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-08 |
| Jerry Moran | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-07 |
| Manager | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Wealth Enhancement Advisory Servic | 439,548 | $98M |
| Y-Intercept | 262,728 | $58M |
| Assenagon Asset Management S.A. | 229,585 | $51M |
| Oslo Pensjonsforsikring As | 157,001 | $35M |
| Fjarde Ap-Fonden /Fourth Swedish N | 117,039 | $26M |
| Asr Vermogensbeheer N.V. | 95,740 | $21M |
| Fund | Weight | Position |
|---|---|---|
| VITSX | 0.1% | $1.8B |
| VTSAX | 0.1% | $1.8B |
| VTI | 0.1% | $1.8B |
| VSMPX | 0.1% | $1.8B |
| VFFSX | 0.1% | $1.5B |
| VFINX | 0.1% | $1.5B |
| ATS Venue (4-wk) | Shares | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|
| Incr Intelligent Cross Llc | 1.9M | 37 sh |
| Ubsa Ubs Ats | 1.6M | 41 sh |
| Ebxl Level Ats | 1.2M | 24 sh |
| Sgmt Sigma X2 | 1.1M | 32 sh |
| Mlix Instinct X | 0.9M | 60 sh |
| Mstx Ms Trajectory Cross (Ats-1) | 0.9M | 26 sh |
Moat score 51/100 — Weak; primary source Efficient Scale.
| Officer | Title |
|---|---|
| Thomas Joseph Wilson | Chairman of the Board, President & Chief Executive Officer |
| Christian Lown | Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer |
| John Edward Dugenske | President of Investments & Corporate Strategy |
| Jesse Edward Merten | Executive VP & President of Property-Liability |
| Period | EPS est. | EPS actual | EPS surprise | Rev est. ($M) | Rev actual ($M) | Rev surprise |
|---|
| YoY growth | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +16.8% | +4.0% | +11.8% | +12.2% | +4.6% |
| Gross profit | -7.6% | -52.8% | +26.3% | +102.2% | +52.3% |
| Operating income | -4.9% | -128.3% | -81.0% | -1755.5% | +128.4% |
| Net income | -71.1% | -179.9% | -85.4% | -2582.4% | +120.3% |
| $B · FY ends | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 48.7 | 50.6 | 56.6 | 63.5 | 66.5 | |
| Cost of revenue | 36.6 | 44.9 | 49.4 | 49.0 | 44.4 | |
| Gross profit | 12.0 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 14.5 | 22.1 | |
| R&D expense | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| SG&A expense | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | |
| Operating income | 6.5 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 5.8 | 13.2 | |
| EBITDA | 7.9 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 14.0 | |
| D&A | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | |
| Pretax income | 6.5 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 5.8 | 13.2 | |
| Income tax | 1.3 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | |
| Net income | 1.6 | -1.3 | -0.2 | 4.7 | 10.3 | |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 17.25 | -5.03 | -1.20 | 16.99 | 38.19 | |
| Diluted shares (M) | 299 | 271 | 262 | 268 | 265 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| ST investments | 4.2 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | |
| Receivables (net) | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.5 | 20.7 | |
| Total current assets | 23.7 | 24.7 | 24.8 | 26.2 | |
| PP&E (net) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | |
| Goodwill + intangibles | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 9.8 | |
| Total assets | 98.0 | 103.4 | 111.6 | 119.8 | |
| Accounts payable | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Short-term debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | |
| Deferred revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.1 | |
| Total current liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.9 | |
| Long-term debt | 8.0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 6.9 | |
| Total liabilities | 80.6 | 85.7 | 90.2 | 89.2 | |
| Shareholders' equity | 17.4 | 17.6 | 21.4 | 30.6 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | (1.4) | (0.2) | 4.6 | 10.3 | |
| D&A | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | |
| Stock-based compensation | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Working capital change | (0.1) | 3.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | |
| Operating cash flow | 5.1 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 10.1 | |
| Capital expenditures | (0.4) | (0.3) | (0.2) | (0.2) | |
| Investing cash flow | (1.7) | (3.0) | (8.3) | (7.3) | |
| Buybacks | (2.5) | (0.3) | (0.0) | (1.2) | |
| Dividends paid | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.1) | (1.2) | |
| Debt issuance / (repay) | 0.0 | (0.0) | 0.1 | (0.6) | |
| Financing cash flow | (3.4) | (1.2) | (0.7) | (2.9) | |
| Free cash flow | 4.7 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | |||||||
| ROE | 5.8% | -6.1% | -1.1% | 23.8% | 39.5% | 43% | |
| ROA | 1.4% | -1.3% | -0.2% | 4.3% | 8.9% | 10.7% | |
| ROIC | 18.2% | -7.1% | -1.4% | 18.9% | 31.6% | 31.3% | |
| Gross margin | 24.7% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 22.8% | 33.2% | 42.2% | |
| Operating margin | 13.3% | -3.6% | -0.6% | 9.1% | 19.8% | 24.8% | |
| Net margin | 3.3% | -2.5% | -0.3% | 7.3% | 15.5% | 19.2% | |
| EBITDA margin | 16.2% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 10.6% | 21.1% | 25.7% | |
| FCF margin | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 13.7% | 14.9% | — | |
| VALUATION | |||||||
| P/E | 19.30 | -25.79 | -189.34 | 10.89 | 5.36 | 4.9 | |
| P/B | 1.23 | 1.91 | 2.00 | 2.37 | 1.80 | 1.9 | |
| P/S | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.91 | |
| P/FCF | 6.47 | 7.11 | 8.99 | 5.83 | 5.58 | 5.1 | |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.33 | -55.45 | 51.26 | 7.99 | 4.06 | 3.9 | |
| EV/Revenue | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 1.0 | |
| Earnings yield | 5.2% | -3.9% | -0.5% | 9.2% | 18.7% | 20.97% | |
| FCF yield | 15.5% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 19.54% | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE & SOLVENCY | |||||||
| Current ratio | — | — | — | — | 0.37 | 0.24 | |
| Quick ratio | — | — | — | — | 0.37 | 0.24 | |
| Debt / equity | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.22 | |
| Debt / assets | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.41 | -4.64 | 2.82 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.37 | |
| Interest coverage | 20.54 | -4.49 | 0.08 | 15.40 | 33.97 | — | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFFICIENCY | |||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.55 | |
| Receivables turnover | 3.01 | 2.72 | 3.01 | 3.31 | 3.36 | 5.8 | |
| DSO (days) | 121 | 134 | 121 | 110 | 109 | 63 | |
| DPO (days) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | |
| Cash conversion cycle | 121 | 134 | 121 | 110 | 109 | 63 | |
| GROWTH (YoY) | |||||||
| Revenue growth | 12.2% | 4.7% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 4.6% | — | |
| Net income growth | -71.3% | -181.1% | 85.5% | 2582.4% | 120.3% | — | |
| EPS growth | -69.5% | -188.6% | 85.5% | 2545.5% | 123.6% | — | |
| FCF growth | -7.9% | -1.5% | -15.7% | 120.2% | 13.3% | — | |
| PER SHARE ($) | |||||||
| EPS (diluted, TTM) | 5.53 | -4.90 | -0.71 | 17.37 | 38.84 | 51.99 | |
| Book value / share | 87.12 | 66.14 | 67.13 | 79.80 | 115.64 | 131.55 | |
| Revenue / share | 166.83 | 190.94 | 213.79 | 236.38 | 251.08 | 270.27 | |
| FCF / share | 16.51 | 17.78 | 14.96 | 32.46 | 37.33 | 47.85 | |
| Cash / share | 16.51 | 18.57 | 22.16 | 19.51 | 21.02 | 22.31 | |
| SHAREHOLDER RETURN & SCORES | |||||||
| Buyback yield | 11.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 3.99% | |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.99 | 1.73 | 1.76 | 2.02 | 1.58 | 1.7 | |
| Piotroski F-Score | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6/9 | |
| Beneish M-Score | -1.27 | -2.48 | -2.49 | -2.66 | -2.45 | -2.85 | |
| Model | Score | Zone | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piotroski F-Score | 6 / 9 | Middling | |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.7 | Distress (<1.81) | Distress |
| Income quality | 1.07 | Cash-backed | OCF ÷ net income |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.85 | Non-manipulator | vs −2.22 threshold |
| DuPont Decomposition (TTM) | Value |
|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.78 |
| Interest burden | 0.98 |
| Operating margin | 25.1% |
| Asset turnover | 0.58× |
| Financial leverage | 4.17× |
| = ROE | 46% |
| Growth Quality (live) | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue stability | 0.98 |
| Earnings stability | 0.44 |
| Earnings persistence | 0.50 |
| Revenue CAGR 3y | 8.7% |
| EPS CAGR 3y | — |
| FCF CAGR 3y | 40.1% |
| Company | Mkt cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Rev growth | Piotroski | 1-yr ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRV | $81.2B | 10.1 | 27% | 15.4% | +1.1% | 6/9 | +51.2% |
| PGR | $127.0B | 11.0 | 35% | 14.0% | +10.5% | 6/9 | -1.4% |
| CB | $138.8B | 12.6 | 15% | 18.2% | +7.6% | 7/9 | +34.6% |
| WRB | $28.0B | 15.4 | 20% | 6.6% | +26.0% | 8/9 | +5.3% |
| CINF | $26.3B | 8.0 | 21% | 29.4% | +19.5% | 8/9 | — |
| MKL | $22.9B | 10.1 | 13% | 22.5% | +6.7% | 7/9 | — |
| L | $22.6B | 13.5 | 10% | 9.4% | +4.3% | 8/9 | — |
| RE | $15.3B | 8.0 | 13% | 14.1% | -5.1% | 5/9 | — |
| Consensus estimates | Revenue mean | High / Low | EPS mean | High / Low | # EPS est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $60.95B | $61.51B / $60.63B | $35.94 | $38.61 / $32.57 | 13 |
| FY2027 | $62.11B | $63.83B / $60.98B | $28.05 | $33.45 / $24.80 | 13 |
| FY2028 | $64.06B | $67.82B / $60.38B | $26.61 | $28.77 / $23.70 | 4 |
| Window | Avg Target | vs. Price | # Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Month | $253.60 | +2.3% | 5 |
| Last Quarter | $267.60 | +8.0% | 15 |
| Last Year | $258.22 | +4.2% | 37 |
| All Time | $220.21 | -11.2% | 73 |
| Moving Average | Value | Distance | % Distance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $230.07 | +17.81 | +7.74% | Above |
| SMA 50 | $246.73 | +1.15 | +0.47% | Above |
| SMA 200 | $225.66 | +22.22 | +9.85% | Above |
| EMA 9 | $236.02 | +11.86 | +5.02% | Above |
| EMA 21 | $235.80 | +12.08 | +5.12% | Above |
| EMA 50 | $240.91 | +6.97 | +2.89% | Above |
| EMA 200 | $229.95 | +17.93 | +7.80% | Above |
| Level | Value | Level | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot / R1 / R2 | $240.64 / $242.90 / $246.19 | S1 / S2 | $237.35 / $235.09 |
| Bollinger (20,2) | $216.24 – $243.90 | Squeeze | Off |
| 52-wk range | $187.20 – $277.22 | Off 52-wk high | -10.6% |
| ATR (14) | $5.59 (2.3%) | Historical vol | 31.4% |
| Computed from live weekly prices | ALL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly volatility (σ, 1y) | 3.41% | 1.83% |
| Best / worst week (1y) | +9.0% / -9.9% | — |
| Max drawdown (5y, monthly) | -39.9% | — |
| 1-week VaR (95%) | -4.8% | — |
| Beta (5y) | 0.15 | 1.00 |
| Reading | ALL | Insurance - Property & Casualty n=188 | Financial Services n=24,134 | All US symbols n=70,435 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +2.2 | -10.0 | -16.3 | -20.5 |
| Trend | +29.6 | +1.7 | -12.5 | -21.3 |
| Momentum | +65.7 | +14.3 | -4.4 | -15.8 |
| Volume | -59.2 | -7.5 | +0.0 | -3.8 |
| Executive | Total comp | Structure |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas J. Wilson Chair, President and Chief | $26.7M | 74% equity+incentive |
| Mario Rizzo President, Property-Liability | $9.3M | 79% equity+incentive |
| John Dugenske President, Investments and Cor | $8.2M | 79% equity+incentive |
| Jesse Merten Executive Vice President and Ch | $7.7M | 79% equity+incentive |
| Christine DeBiase Executive Vice President, | $5.2M | 76% equity+incentive |
| Pillar (live disclosure scores) | Score |
|---|---|
| Environmental | 57 |
| Social | 62 |
| Governance | 56 |
| Composite ESG | 59 |
Methodology. Every figure originates in InsiderStreet's production data layer and is computed deterministically by the same engines that power insiderstreet.ai. This factsheet contains no model-written text. Sections without underlying data are omitted rather than estimated.
| Data domain | Source | Coverage for this report |
|---|---|---|
| Price & volume | market_db.historical_prices | 52 rows |
| Fundamentals | income_statements_annual | 6 rows · 2020 to 2025 |
| Reported vs consensus | fact/earnings_calendar | 24 rows · 2020-11-04 to 2026-08-05 |
| Analyst estimates | dim/forward_estimates | 3 rows · 2026-12-31 to 2028-12-31 |
| Institutional ownership (13F) | holdings_db.institutional_ownership_summary | 119 rows · 1996 to 2026 |
| Insider transactions (Form 4) | edgar/form4 | 12 rows · 2026-10-03 |
| Proposed sales (Form 144) | edgar/form144 | not present for this symbol |
| Beneficial ownership (13D/G) | edgar/13dg | not present for this symbol |
| Short-sale volume (FINRA) | edgar/short_volume_daily | 60 rows · 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-15 |
| Dark pool (ATS, tier 1) | edgar/darkpool_weekly | 12 rows · 2026-06-15 to 2026-08-31 |
| ETF & fund holding | etf_holdings_changelog (30d) | 1 record |
| Peer set | stock_peers_dynamic | 8 rows |
| Industry medians | industry_medians | 1 record |
| Congressional trades | congress_db (House + Senate) | 1 record |
| ESG | fact/esg_disclosures | 1 record |
Method. Every figure in this factsheet is looked up from a named field computed in code. It contains no model-written text.
Not covered. Short interest as a percent of float and days-to-cover are not in this data set — the short-sale figures above are FINRA volume, a flow, and cannot support squeeze or covering analysis. Options positioning and intraday data are also absent. 13F ownership is filed 45 days after quarter end and congressional trades are disclosed on a lag, so both describe a past position, not a current one.