| Profitability | 59/100 |
| Growth | 61/100 |
| Momentum | 88/100 |
| Quality | 81/100 |
| Earnings Quality | 71/100 |
| Balance Sheet | 63/100 |
| Value | 73/100 |
| Risk (safety) | 100/100 |
| Overall | 61.0/100 |
| Symbol | IS Score |
|---|---|
| PGR | 57 |
| TRV | 69 |
| ALL | 60 |
| WRB | 60 |
| CINF | 78 |
| MKL | 50 |
| CB | 61 |
Both readings sit above the midpoint — business quality at 61 and price structure at 82 out of 100 — so they are not in conflict. The fundamentals and the tape are saying the same thing, which is the case in which either one alone would have been enough.
| Trigger | Where it stands now | What it would mean |
|---|---|---|
| IS Score reaches 75 and holds two consecutive quarters | now 61.0 | would move us up one band |
| IS Score stops falling - one quarter higher than the prior | last four: 51 → 54 → 59 → 61 | the direction matters more than the level |
| Technical vote share back above 50% | now 100% | price structure no longer broken |
| Institutional holder count rises two quarters running | peak 2,154 → now 2,154 | fewer institutions willing to hold is our clearest warning |
This page is InsiderStreet's own reading, produced from the data in the rest of this document. It is not a price target and not investment advice. Analyst consensus and street price targets appear later under their own heading and are the street's numbers, not ours.
| Quarter | Holders | 13F shares | Value | Reported own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 2,154 | 351.1M | $113.4B | 89.3% |
| 2026 Q1 | 2,101 | 350.8M | $108.6B | 89.3% |
| 2025 Q4 | 2,037 | 353.6M | $105.0B | 90.0% |
| 2025 Q3 | 1,908 | 343.9M | $93.2B | 87.5% |
| 2025 Q2 | 1,939 | 355.7M | $97.9B | 90.5% |
| 2025 Q1 | 1,906 | 366.2M | $103.4B | 93.2% |
| 2024 Q4 | 1,887 | 364.7M | $93.8B | 92.8% |
| 2024 Q3 | 1,781 | 359.7M | $97.4B | 91.5% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1,688 | 360.0M | $86.1B | 91.6% |
| 2024 Q1 | 1,682 | 359.7M | $87.2B | 91.5% |
| 2023 Q4 | 1,581 | 360.1M | $75.8B | 91.6% |
| 2023 Q3 | 1,453 | 359.9M | $69.1B | 91.6% |
| Insider | Role | Date | Type | Shares | Value | Post-Txn Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayland Joseph F | Executive Vice President and* | 2026-09-01 | TAX W/H | 144 | $0.05M | 33,605 |
| Connors Michael P | director | 2026-08-21 | SELL | 5,500 | $1.90M | 12,803 |
| Wayland Joseph F | Executive Vice President and* | 2026-07-28 | SELL | 8,502 | $3.10M | 33,749 |
| Ortega Juan Luis | Executive Vice President* | 2026-06-08 | EXERCISE | 3,886 | $0.54M | 32,745 |
| Ortega Juan Luis | Executive Vice President* | 2026-06-08 | SELL | 3,886 | $1.25M | 28,859 |
| Ortega Juan Luis | Executive Vice President* | 2026-06-08 | EXERCISE | 3,886 | $0.54M | 60,234 |
| Keogh John W | President &COO | 2026-05-28 | GIFT | 1,352 | — | 140,970 |
| Keogh John W | President &COO | 2026-05-27 | SELL | 20,176 | $6.49M | 206,146 |
| 6-mo decomposition (Form 4) | Txns | Shares | Value | Signal weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S — Open-market sales | 10 | 53,381 | $17.8M | Counted |
| M — Exercises (paired A/D) | 1 | 3,886 | $0.5M | None — mechanics |
| F — Tax withholding | 28 | 143,332 | $47.3M | None — compensation |
| G — Gifts | 1 | 61,000 | — | None |
| P — Open-market purchases | 0 | 0 | $0 | Counted — none occurred |
| Filed | Filer | Shares registered | Est. proceeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Connors Michael P | 5,500 | $1.9M |
| 2026-07-28 | Wayland Joseph F | 8,502 | $3.1M |
| 2026-06-09 | Burke Sheila P | 2,500 | $0.8M |
| 2026-06-08 | Ortega Juan Luis | 3,886 | $1.3M |
| Trailing 12 mo | 31 filings | 309,078 | $97M |
| Filed | Form | Reporting person | % of class | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | SCHEDULE 13G | Vanguard Capital Management | 6.88% | 26.9M sh |
| 2026-03-26 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | The Vanguard Group | — | exit/reporting change |
| 2025-11-14 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | National Indemnity Company | 8.00% | 31.3M sh |
| Member | Chamber | Trade | Size band | Traded | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-24 | 2026-10-08 |
| Kevin Hern | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-14 |
| Kevin Hern | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-13 |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-08-04 |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-08-04 |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-08-04 |
| Manager | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Wealth Enhancement Advisory Servic | 803,050 | $256M |
| Assenagon Asset Management S.A. | 612,668 | $199M |
| Confluence Investment Management L | 433,925 | $141M |
| Cacti Asset Management Llc | 255,039 | $85M |
| Fjarde Ap-Fonden /Fourth Swedish N | 207,177 | $67M |
| Zwj Investment Counsel Inc | 205,424 | $67M |
| Fund | Weight | Position |
|---|---|---|
| VITSX | 0.2% | $3.6B |
| VTSAX | 0.2% | $3.6B |
| VSMPX | 0.2% | $3.6B |
| VTI | 0.2% | $3.6B |
| VFINX | 0.2% | $3.0B |
| VOO | 0.2% | $3.0B |
| ATS Venue (4-wk) | Shares | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|
| Incr Intelligent Cross Llc | 2.1M | 30 sh |
| Ubsa Ubs Ats | 1.6M | 32 sh |
| Sgmt Sigma X2 | 1.0M | 27 sh |
| Mlix Instinct X | 1.0M | 43 sh |
| Ebxl Level Ats | 1.0M | 19 sh |
| Mspl Ms Pool (Ats-4) | 0.7M | 71 sh |
Moat score 53/100 — Weak; primary source Efficient Scale.
| Officer | Title |
|---|---|
| Evan G. Greenberg | Chairman & Chief Executive Officer |
| John W. Keogh | Chairman of North America Insurance, President & COO |
| Sean Ringsted | EVP of Chubb Group, Chief Scientist, Chief Digital Business & Chief Analytics Officer |
| Juan Luis Ortega | Executive Vice President of Chubb Group & President of North America Insurance |
| Period | EPS est. | EPS actual | EPS surprise | Rev est. ($M) | Rev actual ($M) | Rev surprise |
|---|
| YoY growth | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +13.1% | +5.4% | +16.7% | +12.0% | +6.1% |
| Gross profit | +61.6% | -4.4% | +27.8% | +16.9% | +70.3% |
| Operating income | +135.3% | -33.8% | +46.9% | +20.2% | +102.3% |
| Net income | +141.3% | -38.5% | +72.1% | +2.7% | +11.2% |
| $B · FY ends | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 40.8 | 43.0 | 50.1 | 56.2 | 59.6 | |
| Cost of revenue | 29.4 | 32.1 | 36.3 | 40.0 | 32.0 | |
| Gross profit | 11.3 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 16.2 | 27.5 | |
| R&D expense | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| SG&A expense | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | |
| Operating income | 9.8 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 23.2 | |
| EBITDA | 10.6 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 10.1 | |
| D&A | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Pretax income | 9.8 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 13.0 | |
| Income tax | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.4 | |
| Net income | 8.5 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 10.3 | |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 19.27 | 12.39 | 21.80 | 22.70 | 25.73 | |
| Diluted shares (M) | 443 | 424 | 414 | 412 | 396 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | |
| ST investments | 23.8 | 31.3 | 36.9 | 0.0 | |
| Receivables (net) | 31.1 | 33.6 | 34.5 | 15.9 | |
| Total current assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.4 | |
| PP&E (net) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | |
| Goodwill + intangibles | 25.4 | 30.1 | 29.2 | 26.4 | |
| Total assets | 199.0 | 230.7 | 246.5 | 247.8 | |
| Accounts payable | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 0.0 | |
| Short-term debt | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | |
| Deferred revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Total current liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Long-term debt | 14.4 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 16.2 | |
| Total liabilities | 148.5 | 167.0 | 178.2 | 168.1 | |
| Shareholders' equity | 50.5 | 63.7 | 68.4 | 79.8 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 5.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 10.3 | |
| D&A | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Stock-based compensation | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Working capital change | 3.4 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 4.1 | |
| Operating cash flow | 11.3 | 12.6 | 16.2 | 14.5 | |
| Capital expenditures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Investing cash flow | (5.7) | (7.6) | (13.9) | (13.0) | |
| Buybacks | (2.9) | (2.4) | (1.8) | (3.7) | |
| Dividends paid | (1.4) | (1.4) | (1.4) | (1.5) | |
| Debt issuance / (repay) | (1.0) | (0.5) | 1.0 | 2.2 | |
| Financing cash flow | (5.1) | (4.5) | (2.2) | (1.9) | |
| Free cash flow | 11.3 | 12.6 | 16.2 | 14.5 |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | |||||||
| ROE | 14.3% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15% | |
| ROA | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | |
| ROIC | -38.8% | 13.2% | 22.4% | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.5% | |
| Gross margin | 27.8% | 25.2% | 27.6% | 28.8% | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Operating margin | 24.0% | 15.1% | 19.0% | 20.4% | 38.9% | 18.2% | |
| Net margin | 20.9% | 12.2% | 18.0% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 18.1% | |
| EBITDA margin | 25.9% | 17.1% | 21.0% | 22.3% | 16.9% | 19.6% | |
| FCF margin | 27.2% | 26.2% | 25.2% | 28.8% | 22.6% | — | |
| VALUATION | |||||||
| P/E | 9.23 | 16.87 | 10.01 | 12.58 | 12.00 | 12.6 | |
| P/B | 1.32 | 1.75 | 1.52 | 1.82 | 1.68 | 1.9 | |
| P/S | 1.93 | 2.06 | 1.80 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 2.24 | |
| P/FCF | 7.07 | 7.87 | 7.16 | 7.21 | 9.16 | 8.6 | |
| EV/EBITDA | -0.27 | 10.55 | 6.77 | 7.41 | 10.15 | 12.6 | |
| EV/Revenue | -0.07 | 1.81 | 1.42 | 1.65 | 2.40 | 2.5 | |
| Earnings yield | 10.8% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.93% | |
| FCF yield | 14.1% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 11.58% | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE & SOLVENCY | |||||||
| Current ratio | — | — | — | — | — | 0.83 | |
| Quick ratio | — | — | — | — | — | 0.83 | |
| Debt / equity | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.24 | |
| Debt / assets | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | |
| Net debt / EBITDA | -7.72 | -1.48 | -1.84 | -1.91 | 1.40 | 1.26 | |
| Interest coverage | 20.95 | 12.40 | 15.18 | 16.46 | 18.01 | — | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFFICIENCY | |||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.22 | |
| Receivables turnover | 1.48 | 1.43 | 1.55 | 1.65 | 2.37 | 3.3 | |
| DSO (days) | 246 | 255 | 236 | 221 | 154 | 112 | |
| DPO (days) | 86 | 85 | 81 | 75 | 35 | 91 | |
| Cash conversion cycle | 160 | 170 | 155 | 147 | 119 | 21 | |
| GROWTH (YoY) | |||||||
| Revenue growth | 13.6% | 4.9% | 16.7% | 11.9% | 6.6% | — | |
| Net income growth | 141.7% | -38.6% | 72.1% | 2.7% | 11.2% | — | |
| EPS growth | 153.1% | -36.5% | 75.5% | -1.4% | 20.0% | — | |
| FCF growth | 13.9% | 0.9% | 12.3% | 28.1% | -16.5% | — | |
| PER SHARE ($) | |||||||
| EPS (diluted, TTM) | 19.73 | 12.53 | 21.98 | 21.68 | 26.00 | 28.53 | |
| Book value / share | 137.97 | 120.60 | 144.89 | 149.67 | 186.02 | 205.71 | |
| Revenue / share | 94.63 | 102.54 | 122.07 | 131.20 | 150.87 | 157.96 | |
| FCF / share | 25.76 | 26.86 | 30.76 | 37.83 | 34.09 | 40.91 | |
| Cash / share | 226.23 | 61.55 | 82.27 | 91.61 | 6.23 | 20.89 | |
| SHAREHOLDER RETURN & SCORES | |||||||
| Buyback yield | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.36% | |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.13 | 1.35 | 1.1 | |
| Piotroski F-Score | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7/9 | |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.41 | -2.46 | -2.47 | -2.59 | -3.07 | -3.57 | |
| Model | Score | Zone | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piotroski F-Score | 7 / 9 | Strong | |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.1 | Distress (<1.81) | Distress |
| Income quality | 1.39 | Cash-backed | OCF ÷ net income |
| Beneish M-Score | -3.57 | Non-manipulator | vs −2.22 threshold |
| DuPont Decomposition (TTM) | Value |
|---|---|
| Tax burden | 1.01 |
| Interest burden | 0.94 |
| Operating margin | 19.1% |
| Asset turnover | 0.23× |
| Financial leverage | 3.75× |
| = ROE | 15% |
| Growth Quality (live) | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue stability | 0.99 |
| Earnings stability | 0.49 |
| Earnings persistence | 0.91 |
| Revenue CAGR 3y | 10.1% |
| EPS CAGR 3y | 27.0% |
| FCF CAGR 3y | 14.0% |
| Company | Mkt cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Rev growth | Piotroski | 1-yr ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | $127.0B | 11.0 | 35% | 14.0% | +10.5% | 6/9 | -1.4% |
| TRV | $81.2B | 10.1 | 27% | 15.4% | +1.1% | 6/9 | +51.2% |
| ALL | $62.7B | 4.9 | 46% | 17.6% | +5.4% | 7/9 | +27.8% |
| WRB | $28.0B | 15.4 | 20% | 6.6% | +26.0% | 8/9 | +5.3% |
| CINF | $26.3B | 8.0 | 21% | 29.4% | +19.5% | 8/9 | — |
| MKL | $22.9B | 10.1 | 13% | 22.5% | +6.7% | 7/9 | — |
| L | $22.6B | 13.5 | 10% | 9.4% | +4.3% | 8/9 | — |
| RE | $15.3B | 8.0 | 13% | 14.1% | -5.1% | 5/9 | — |
| Consensus estimates | Revenue mean | High / Low | EPS mean | High / Low | # EPS est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $58.99B | $59.44B / $58.43B | $28.13 | $29.73 / $26.89 | 16 |
| FY2027 | $63.67B | $65.27B / $62.42B | $29.30 | $31.72 / $27.08 | 15 |
| FY2028 | $67.45B | $68.69B / $65.67B | $31.87 | $36.05 / $30.27 | 5 |
| Window | Avg Target | vs. Price | # Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Month | $345.00 | -4.1% | 3 |
| Last Quarter | $350.29 | -2.6% | 7 |
| Last Year | $339.56 | -5.6% | 39 |
| All Time | $300.53 | -16.5% | 78 |
| Moving Average | Value | Distance | % Distance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $338.28 | +21.51 | +6.36% | Above |
| SMA 50 | $340.44 | +19.35 | +5.68% | Above |
| SMA 200 | $331.38 | +28.41 | +8.57% | Above |
| EMA 9 | $347.13 | +12.66 | +3.65% | Above |
| EMA 21 | $342.07 | +17.72 | +5.18% | Above |
| EMA 50 | $340.76 | +19.03 | +5.58% | Above |
| EMA 200 | $329.16 | +30.63 | +9.31% | Above |
| Level | Value | Level | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot / R1 / R2 | $354.49 / $356.88 / $360.97 | S1 / S2 | $350.40 / $348.01 |
| Bollinger (20,2) | $321.18 – $355.39 | Squeeze | Off |
| 52-wk range | $264.46 – $365.91 | Off 52-wk high | -1.7% |
| ATR (14) | $5.70 (1.6%) | Historical vol | 18.0% |
| Computed from live weekly prices | CB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly volatility (σ, 1y) | 2.68% | 1.83% |
| Best / worst week (1y) | +8.5% / -5.8% | — |
| Max drawdown (5y, monthly) | -37.3% | — |
| 1-week VaR (95%) | -3.7% | — |
| Beta (5y) | 0.38 | 1.00 |
| Reading | CB | Insurance - Property & Casualty n=188 | Financial Services n=24,134 | All US symbols n=70,435 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +8.9 | -10.0 | -16.3 | -20.5 |
| Trend | +44.1 | +1.7 | -12.5 | -21.3 |
| Momentum | +70.4 | +14.3 | -4.4 | -15.8 |
| Volume | -53.5 | -7.5 | +0.0 | -3.8 |
| Executive | Total comp | Structure |
|---|---|---|
| Evan G. Greenberg Chairman and Chief Executi | $33.2M | 57% equity+incentive |
| John W. Keogh President and Chief Operating | $14.8M | 59% equity+incentive |
| John J. Lupica Former Vice Chairman and Exec | $9.3M | 61% equity+incentive |
| Peter C. Enns Chief Financial Officer | $6.8M | 50% equity+incentive |
| Juan Luis Ortega President, North America In | $6.4M | 44% equity+incentive |
| Pillar (live disclosure scores) | Score |
|---|---|
| Environmental | 50 |
| Social | 55 |
| Governance | 54 |
| Composite ESG | 53 |
| Filed | 8-K contents | Items |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Earnings Release; Exhibits | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2026-06-10 | Other Events; Exhibits | 8.01,9.01 |
| 2026-05-22 | Officer/Director Change; Bylaws Amendment; Shareholder Vote; Exhibits | 5.02,5.03,5.07,9.01 |
| 2026-05-20 | Other Events; Exhibits | 8.01,9.01 |
| 2026-04-21 | Earnings Release; Exhibits | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2026-03-11 | Amendments to Articles of Incorporation or Bylaws; Financial Statement | 5.03,9.01 |
| 2026-02-03 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements an | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2025-12-08 | Regulation FD Disclosure | 7.01 |
Methodology. Every figure originates in InsiderStreet's production data layer and is computed deterministically by the same engines that power insiderstreet.ai. This factsheet contains no model-written text. Sections without underlying data are omitted rather than estimated.
| Data domain | Source | Coverage for this report |
|---|---|---|
| Price & volume | market_db.historical_prices | 52 rows |
| Fundamentals | income_statements_annual | 6 rows · 2020 to 2025 |
| Reported vs consensus | fact/earnings_calendar | 24 rows · 2020-07-28 to 2026-04-21 |
| Analyst estimates | dim/forward_estimates | 3 rows · 2026-12-31 to 2028-12-31 |
| Institutional ownership (13F) | holdings_db.institutional_ownership_summary | 51 rows · 2011 to 2026 |
| Insider transactions (Form 4) | edgar/form4 | 12 rows · 2026-05-21 to 2026-09-01 |
| Proposed sales (Form 144) | edgar/form144 | 1 record |
| Beneficial ownership (13D/G) | edgar/13dg | 3 rows · 2025-11-14 to 2026-04-28 |
| Short-sale volume (FINRA) | edgar/short_volume_daily | 60 rows · 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-15 |
| Dark pool (ATS, tier 1) | edgar/darkpool_weekly | 12 rows · 2026-06-15 to 2026-08-31 |
| ETF & fund holding | etf_holdings_changelog (30d) | 1 record |
| Peer set | stock_peers_dynamic | 8 rows |
| Industry medians | industry_medians | 1 record |
| Congressional trades | congress_db (House + Senate) | 1 record |
| ESG | fact/esg_disclosures | 1 record |
Method. Every figure in this factsheet is looked up from a named field computed in code. It contains no model-written text.
Not covered. Short interest as a percent of float and days-to-cover are not in this data set — the short-sale figures above are FINRA volume, a flow, and cannot support squeeze or covering analysis. Options positioning and intraday data are also absent. 13F ownership is filed 45 days after quarter end and congressional trades are disclosed on a lag, so both describe a past position, not a current one.