| Profitability | 51/100 |
| Growth | 73/100 |
| Momentum | 94/100 |
| Quality | 72/100 |
| Earnings Quality | 70/100 |
| Balance Sheet | 49/100 |
| Value | 74/100 |
| Risk (safety) | 90/100 |
| Overall | 72.5/100 |
| Symbol | IS Score |
|---|---|
| VLO | 74 |
| PSX | 71 |
| DINO | 75 |
| BP | 51 |
| EQNR | 63 |
| PBR | 65 |
| MPC | 72 |
Both readings sit above the midpoint — business quality at 72 and price structure at 83 out of 100 — so they are not in conflict. The fundamentals and the tape are saying the same thing, which is the case in which either one alone would have been enough.
| Trigger | Where it stands now | What it would mean |
|---|---|---|
| IS Score reaches 75 and holds two consecutive quarters | now 72.5 | would move us up one band |
| IS Score stops falling - one quarter higher than the prior | last four: 41 → 54 → 59 → 72 | the direction matters more than the level |
| Technical vote share back above 50% | now 100% | price structure no longer broken |
| Institutional holder count rises two quarters running | peak 1,942 → now 1,942 | fewer institutions willing to hold is our clearest warning |
This page is InsiderStreet's own reading, produced from the data in the rest of this document. It is not a price target and not investment advice. Analyst consensus and street price targets appear later under their own heading and are the street's numbers, not ours.
| Quarter | Holders | 13F shares | Value | Reported own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 1,942 | 221.4M | $55.2B | 76.1% |
| 2026 Q1 | 1,883 | 220.9M | $53.1B | 75.9% |
| 2025 Q4 | 1,668 | 223.5M | $35.7B | 76.8% |
| 2025 Q3 | 1,648 | 219.8M | $41.5B | 75.5% |
| 2025 Q2 | 1,561 | 232.3M | $37.8B | 79.8% |
| 2025 Q1 | 1,552 | 236.2M | $33.0B | 81.2% |
| 2024 Q4 | 1,549 | 236.2M | $31.8B | 81.2% |
| 2024 Q3 | 1,564 | 237.7M | $38.0B | 81.7% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1,632 | 249.9M | $42.6B | 85.9% |
| 2024 Q1 | 1,677 | 262.4M | $52.0B | 90.2% |
| 2023 Q4 | 1,534 | 276.4M | $40.4B | 95.0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 1,452 | 289.1M | $43.0B | 99.4% |
| Insider | Role | Date | Type | Shares | Value | Post-Txn Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | 2026-08-31 | SELL | 1,000 | $0.38M | 11,194 |
| Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | 2026-08-28 | SELL | 425 | $0.16M | 12,194 |
| Brzezinski Erin M | VP and Controller | 2026-08-27 | SELL | 570 | $0.21M | 1,576 |
| Benson Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | 2026-08-17 | SELL | 5,000 | $1.79M | 30,334 |
| Lyon Shawn M | SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC | 2026-08-13 | SELL | 2,500 | $0.88M | 12,619 |
| Henschen Michael A Ii | Ex VP, Refining | 2026-08-12 | SELL | 6,011 | $2.05M | 10,889 |
| Mannen Maryann T. | director, Chairman, President & CEO | 2026-08-03 | TAX W/H | 908 | $0.28M | 110,939 |
| Henschen Michael A Ii | Ex VP, Refining | 2026-06-04 | SELL | 1,372 | $0.37M | 16,900 |
| 6-mo decomposition (Form 4) | Txns | Shares | Value | Signal weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S — Open-market sales | 14 | 27,315 | $8.4M | Counted |
| F — Tax withholding | 22 | 8,674 | $1.9M | None — compensation |
| G — Gifts | 2 | 3,214 | — | None |
| P — Open-market purchases | 0 | 0 | $0 | Counted — none occurred |
| Filed | Filer | Shares registered | Est. proceeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Lyon Shawn M | 1,000 | $0.4M |
| 2026-08-28 | Lyon Shawn M | 425 | $0.2M |
| 2026-08-27 | Brzezinski Erin M | 570 | $0.2M |
| 2026-08-24 | Hagedorn Carl Kristopher | 897 | $0.3M |
| Trailing 12 mo | 18 filings | 193,887 | $47M |
| Filed | Form | Reporting person | % of class | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | SCHEDULE 13G | Vanguard Capital Management | 7.52% | 22.1M sh |
| 2026-04-29 | SCHEDULE 13G | Vanguard Portfolio Management | 5.35% | 15.8M sh |
| 2025-07-29 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | The Vanguard Group | 12.65% | 38.9M sh |
| 2025-04-30 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | The Vanguard Group | 11.21% | 34.9M sh |
| Member | Chamber | Trade | Size band | Traded | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Taylor | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-22 | 2026-10-02 |
| David Taylor | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-22 | 2026-10-02 |
| David Taylor | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-22 | 2026-10-02 |
| Jerry Moran | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-08 |
| Jerry Moran | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-07 |
| Jerry Moran | Senate | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-07 |
| Manager | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Assenagon Asset Management S.A. | 206,879 | $82M |
| Wealth Enhancement Advisory Servic | 103,062 | $45M |
| Douglas Lane & Associates, Llc | 101,802 | $40M |
| Concurrent Investment Advisors, Ll | 82,806 | $33M |
| Czech National Bank | 80,688 | $32M |
| Turtle Creek Wealth Advisors, Llc | 69,274 | $27M |
| Fund | Weight | Position |
|---|---|---|
| VITSX | 0.2% | $3.5B |
| VSMPX | 0.2% | $3.5B |
| VTSAX | 0.2% | $3.5B |
| VTI | 0.2% | $3.5B |
| VFIAX | 0.2% | $2.9B |
| VOO | 0.2% | $2.9B |
| ATS Venue (4-wk) | Shares | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|
| Incr Intelligent Cross Llc | 2.5M | 40 sh |
| Ubsa Ubs Ats | 2.0M | 42 sh |
| Sgmt Sigma X2 | 1.4M | 34 sh |
| Ebxl Level Ats | 1.3M | 22 sh |
| Mlix Instinct X | 0.9M | 52 sh |
| Mspl Ms Pool (Ats-4) | 0.8M | 141 sh |
Moat score 57/100 — Narrow; primary source Efficient Scale.
| Officer | Title |
|---|---|
| Maryann T. Mannen | President, CEO & Chairman of the Board |
| Maria A. Khoury | Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer |
| Rick D. Hessling | Chief Commercial Officer |
| Molly R. Benson | Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary |
| Period | EPS est. | EPS actual | EPS surprise | Rev est. ($M) | Rev actual ($M) | Rev surprise |
|---|
| YoY growth | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +71.9% | +47.9% | -16.4% | -6.4% | -4.6% |
| Gross profit | +885.2% | +241.4% | -26.9% | -43.7% | +6.0% |
| Operating income | -135.1% | +399.3% | -41.4% | -58.3% | +23.8% |
| Net income | -199.1% | +49.1% | -33.3% | -64.4% | +17.5% |
| $B · FY ends | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 120.0 | 177.5 | 148.4 | 138.9 | 132.5 | |
| Cost of revenue | 113.4 | 154.9 | 131.9 | 129.6 | 122.7 | |
| Gross profit | 6.6 | 22.6 | 16.5 | 9.3 | 9.8 | |
| R&D expense | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| SG&A expense | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | |
| Operating income | 4.3 | 21.5 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 6.5 | |
| EBITDA | 7.4 | 24.9 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 11.5 | |
| D&A | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | |
| Pretax income | 2.8 | 20.5 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | |
| Income tax | 0.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | |
| Net income | 9.7 | 14.5 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.69 | 28.12 | 23.65 | 10.09 | 13.27 | |
| Diluted shares (M) | 638 | 516 | 409 | 341 | 305 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 8.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | |
| ST investments | 3.1 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Receivables (net) | 13.5 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 10.3 | |
| Total current assets | 35.2 | 32.1 | 24.4 | 24.8 | |
| PP&E (net) | 36.9 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 38.9 | |
| Goodwill + intangibles | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 12.1 | |
| Total assets | 89.9 | 86.0 | 78.9 | 85.6 | |
| Accounts payable | 15.3 | 13.8 | 13.9 | 13.0 | |
| Short-term debt | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | |
| Deferred revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Total current liabilities | 20.0 | 20.2 | 20.8 | 19.7 | |
| Long-term debt | 25.6 | 25.3 | 24.4 | 29.9 | |
| Total liabilities | 54.8 | 54.6 | 54.4 | 61.5 | |
| Shareholders' equity | 35.1 | 31.4 | 24.5 | 24.1 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 16.1 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | |
| D&A | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | |
| Stock-based compensation | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Working capital change | (1.7) | 0.3 | 0.4 | (0.7) | |
| Operating cash flow | 16.4 | 14.1 | 8.7 | 8.3 | |
| Capital expenditures | (2.4) | (1.9) | (2.5) | (3.5) | |
| Investing cash flow | 0.6 | (3.1) | 1.5 | (6.3) | |
| Buybacks | (11.9) | (11.6) | (9.2) | (3.5) | |
| Dividends paid | (1.3) | (1.3) | (1.2) | (1.1) | |
| Debt issuance / (repay) | 1.1 | 0.5 | (0.4) | 4.6 | |
| Financing cash flow | (13.6) | (14.2) | (12.4) | (1.5) | |
| Free cash flow | 13.9 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | |||||||
| ROE | 40.2% | 53.8% | 37.1% | 16.3% | 23.1% | 49% | |
| ROA | 11.4% | 16.6% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 9.1% | |
| ROIC | 9.2% | 38.2% | 26.1% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 14.2% | |
| Gross margin | 5.5% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 11.6% | |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 8.0% | |
| Net margin | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.6% | |
| EBITDA margin | 6.2% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | |
| FCF margin | 2.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | — | |
| VALUATION | |||||||
| P/E | 3.65 | 3.51 | 5.54 | 12.72 | 12.02 | 16.5 | |
| P/B | 1.36 | 1.84 | 2.20 | 2.47 | 2.81 | 7.3 | |
| P/S | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.87 | |
| P/FCF | 12.29 | 3.66 | 4.39 | 7.14 | 10.20 | 10.4 | |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.93 | 2.70 | 3.87 | 6.53 | 6.79 | 9.2 | |
| EV/Revenue | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 1.0 | |
| Earnings yield | 27.4% | 28.5% | 18.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.15% | |
| FCF yield | 8.1% | 27.3% | 22.8% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 9.61% | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE & SOLVENCY | |||||||
| Current ratio | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.59 | 1.17 | 1.26 | 1.25 | |
| Quick ratio | 1.25 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.89 | |
| Debt / equity | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 1.98 | 1.80 | |
| Debt / assets | 31.5% | 31.0% | 33.1% | 36.5% | 40.2% | 36.4% | |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.16 | 0.65 | 0.98 | 2.40 | 2.63 | 1.52 | |
| Interest coverage | 3.14 | 17.82 | 11.95 | 5.42 | 5.99 | — | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFFICIENCY | |||||||
| Asset turnover | 1.41 | 2.02 | 1.69 | 1.68 | 1.61 | 1.63 | |
| Receivables turnover | 14.29 | 14.48 | 11.56 | 11.90 | 12.37 | 9.8 | |
| DSO (days) | 26 | 25 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 37 | |
| DPO (days) | 35 | 34 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 52 | |
| Cash conversion cycle | 17 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 12 | |
| GROWTH (YoY) | |||||||
| Revenue growth | 71.9% | 47.9% | -16.4% | -6.4% | -4.4% | — | |
| Net income growth | 199.1% | 49.1% | -33.3% | -64.4% | 17.5% | — | |
| EPS growth | 205.8% | 94.0% | -17.2% | -58.2% | 26.1% | — | |
| FCF growth | 887.0% | 381.4% | -12.3% | -49.8% | -22.3% | — | |
| PER SHARE ($) | |||||||
| EPS (diluted, TTM) | 15.99 | 31.02 | 25.68 | 10.73 | 13.54 | 29.40 | |
| Book value / share | 43.03 | 59.22 | 64.73 | 55.28 | 57.91 | 88.38 | |
| Revenue / share | 197.02 | 379.17 | 393.58 | 432.60 | 443.81 | 529.02 | |
| FCF / share | 4.76 | 29.79 | 32.43 | 19.10 | 15.94 | 44.33 | |
| Cash / share | 17.80 | 25.15 | 27.12 | 10.00 | 12.28 | 26.69 | |
| SHAREHOLDER RETURN & SCORES | |||||||
| Buyback yield | 13.1% | 23.4% | 21.6% | 21.0% | 7.2% | 6.63% | |
| Altman Z-Score | 2.36 | 3.94 | 3.63 | 3.26 | 3.07 | 4.1 | |
| Piotroski F-Score | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8/9 | |
| Beneish M-Score | -1.32 | -2.63 | -2.45 | -2.60 | -2.93 | -2.67 | |
| Model | Score | Zone | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piotroski F-Score | 8 / 9 | Strong | |
| Altman Z-Score | 4.1 | Safe (>2.99) | Safe |
| Income quality | 1.74 | Cash-backed | OCF ÷ net income |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.67 | Non-manipulator | vs −2.22 threshold |
| DuPont Decomposition (TTM) | Value |
|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.67 |
| Interest burden | 0.90 |
| Operating margin | 9.2% |
| Asset turnover | 1.78× |
| Financial leverage | 4.84× |
| = ROE | 48% |
| Growth Quality (live) | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue stability | 0.52 |
| Earnings stability | 0.09 |
| Earnings persistence | 0.50 |
| Revenue CAGR 3y | -0.6% |
| EPS CAGR 3y | -1.1% |
| FCF CAGR 3y | 0.9% |
| Company | Mkt cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Rev growth | Piotroski | 1-yr ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | $128.0B | 18.4 | 29% | 10.2% | +7.4% | 9/9 | +186.2% |
| PSX | $117.5B | 16.6 | 24% | 7.5% | +15.6% | 9/9 | +130.3% |
| DINO | $22.3B | 11.9 | 20% | 8.6% | +16.3% | 9/9 | +155.5% |
| BP | $131.7B | 23.7 | 9% | 5.6% | +17.0% | 8/9 | +55.3% |
| EQNR | $112.3B | 12.5 | 21% | 14.0% | +6.7% | 8/9 | — |
| PBR | $167.6B | 6.4 | 31% | 31.0% | +20.8% | 9/9 | — |
| COP | $176.0B | 19.4 | 14% | 20.5% | +9.7% | 9/9 | — |
| TTE | $203.4B | 11.2 | 15% | 9.5% | +5.0% | 8/9 | — |
| Consensus estimates | Revenue mean | High / Low | EPS mean | High / Low | # EPS est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $180.50B | $193.96B / $157.79B | $64.16 | $72.50 / $57.71 | 10 |
| FY2027 | $167.22B | $199.78B / $112.40B | $55.09 | $69.89 / $38.73 | 11 |
| FY2028 | $157.99B | $207.48B / $134.65B | $27.61 | $39.19 / $16.83 | 5 |
| Window | Avg Target | vs. Price | # Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Month | $474.17 | -0.8% | 6 |
| Last Quarter | $415.06 | -13.2% | 17 |
| Last Year | $326.95 | -31.6% | 37 |
| All Time | $235.38 | -50.8% | 82 |
| Moving Average | Value | Distance | % Distance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $429.32 | +48.75 | +11.36% | Above |
| SMA 50 | $395.67 | +82.40 | +20.83% | Above |
| SMA 200 | $276.12 | +201.95 | +73.14% | Above |
| EMA 9 | $462.67 | +15.40 | +3.33% | Above |
| EMA 21 | $438.10 | +39.97 | +9.12% | Above |
| EMA 50 | $399.01 | +79.06 | +19.81% | Above |
| EMA 200 | $300.23 | +177.84 | +59.23% | Above |
| Level | Value | Level | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot / R1 / R2 | $475.85 / $482.62 / $488.33 | S1 / S2 | $470.14 / $463.37 |
| Bollinger (20,2) | $360.21 – $498.44 | Squeeze | Off |
| 52-wk range | $161.52 – $485.22 | Off 52-wk high | -1.5% |
| ATR (14) | $15.52 (3.2%) | Historical vol | 42.0% |
| Computed from live weekly prices | MPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly volatility (σ, 1y) | 5.50% | 1.83% |
| Best / worst week (1y) | +17.0% / -9.4% | — |
| Max drawdown (5y, monthly) | -70.4% | — |
| 1-week VaR (95%) | -7.6% | — |
| Beta (5y) | 0.53 | 1.00 |
| Reading | MPC | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing n=198 | Energy n=2,022 | All US symbols n=70,435 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +32.6 | -7.8 | -13.8 | -20.5 |
| Trend | +59.0 | +15.2 | -8.3 | -21.3 |
| Momentum | +76.8 | +3.2 | -8.5 | -15.8 |
| Volume | +29.5 | +1.5 | -25.0 | -3.8 |
| Executive | Total comp | Structure |
|---|---|---|
| Maryann T. Mannen President and CEO | $19.0M | 88% equity+incentive |
| Michael J. Hennigan Executive Chairman | $14.1M | 82% equity+incentive |
| John J. Quaid Executive Vice President and C | $5.9M | 79% equity+incentive |
| Timothy J. Aydt Former Executive Vice Presid | $5.5M | 61% equity+incentive |
| Rick D. Hessling Chief Commercial Officer | $4.1M | 72% equity+incentive |
| Pillar (live disclosure scores) | Score |
|---|---|
| Environmental | 66 |
| Social | 68 |
| Governance | 73 |
| Composite ESG | 69 |
| Filed | 8-K contents | Items |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Earnings Release; Exhibits | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2026-06-29 | Other Events | 8.01 |
| 2026-05-05 | Earnings Release; Exhibits | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2026-05-01 | Shareholder Vote | 5.07 |
| 2026-04-13 | Material Agreement; Termination of Agreement; Earnings Release; Financ | 1.01,1.02,2.02,2.03,9.01 |
| 2026-02-03 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements an | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2025-12-18 | Departure/Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers; Other Events | 5.02,8.01,9.01 |
| 2025-11-04 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Financial Statements an | 2.02,9.01 |
Methodology. Every figure originates in InsiderStreet's production data layer and is computed deterministically by the same engines that power insiderstreet.ai. This factsheet contains no model-written text. Sections without underlying data are omitted rather than estimated.
| Data domain | Source | Coverage for this report |
|---|---|---|
| Price & volume | market_db.historical_prices | 52 rows |
| Fundamentals | income_statements_annual | 6 rows · 2020 to 2025 |
| Reported vs consensus | fact/earnings_calendar | 24 rows · 2020-11-02 to 2026-08-04 |
| Analyst estimates | dim/forward_estimates | 3 rows · 2026-12-31 to 2028-12-31 |
| Institutional ownership (13F) | holdings_db.institutional_ownership_summary | 65 rows · 2006 to 2026 |
| Insider transactions (Form 4) | edgar/form4 | 12 rows · 2026-04-30 to 2026-08-31 |
| Proposed sales (Form 144) | edgar/form144 | 1 record |
| Beneficial ownership (13D/G) | edgar/13dg | 4 rows · 2025-04-30 to 2026-04-30 |
| Short-sale volume (FINRA) | edgar/short_volume_daily | 60 rows · 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-15 |
| Dark pool (ATS, tier 1) | edgar/darkpool_weekly | 12 rows · 2026-06-15 to 2026-08-31 |
| ETF & fund holding | etf_holdings_changelog (30d) | 1 record |
| Peer set | stock_peers_dynamic | 8 rows |
| Industry medians | industry_medians | 1 record |
| Congressional trades | congress_db (House + Senate) | 1 record |
| ESG | fact/esg_disclosures | 1 record |
Method. Every figure in this factsheet is looked up from a named field computed in code. It contains no model-written text.
Not covered. Short interest as a percent of float and days-to-cover are not in this data set — the short-sale figures above are FINRA volume, a flow, and cannot support squeeze or covering analysis. Options positioning and intraday data are also absent. 13F ownership is filed 45 days after quarter end and congressional trades are disclosed on a lag, so both describe a past position, not a current one.