| Profitability | 12/100 |
| Growth | 62/100 |
| Momentum | 90/100 |
| Quality | 65/100 |
| Earnings Quality | 71/100 |
| Balance Sheet | 45/100 |
| Value | 49/100 |
| Risk (safety) | 30/100 |
| Overall | 43.3/100 |
| Symbol | IS Score |
|---|---|
| PKG | 51 |
| AMCR | 53 |
| BALL | 62 |
| AVY | 62 |
| CCK | 60 |
| SEE | 54 |
| SW | 43 |
Both readings sit below the midpoint — business quality at 43 and price structure at 20 out of 100 — so they are not in conflict. The fundamentals and the tape are saying the same thing, which is the case in which either one alone would have been enough.
| Trigger | Where it stands now | What it would mean |
|---|---|---|
| IS Score reaches 55 and holds two consecutive quarters | now 43.3 | would move us up one band |
| IS Score stops falling - one quarter higher than the prior | last four: 46 → 50 → 40 → 43 | the direction matters more than the level |
| Technical vote share back above 50% | now 9% | price structure no longer broken |
| Institutional holder count rises two quarters running | peak 645 → now 645 | fewer institutions willing to hold is our clearest warning |
This page is InsiderStreet's own reading, produced from the data in the rest of this document. It is not a price target and not investment advice. Analyst consensus and street price targets appear later under their own heading and are the street's numbers, not ours.
| Quarter | Holders | 13F shares | Value | Reported own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 645 | 507.2M | $23.3B | 96.9% |
| 2026 Q1 | 614 | 476.3M | $18.9B | 91.0% |
| 2025 Q4 | 594 | 460.3M | $18.4B | 87.9% |
| 2025 Q3 | 599 | 453.1M | $20.7B | 86.5% |
| 2025 Q2 | 578 | 450.4M | $20.4B | 86.0% |
| 2025 Q1 | 596 | 437.9M | $20.7B | 83.6% |
| 2024 Q4 | 599 | 434.9M | $23.3B | 83.1% |
| 2024 Q3 | 500 | 409.8M | $23.3B | 78.3% |
| Insider | Role | Date | Type | Shares | Value | Post-Txn Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown Carole Lynnette | director | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 48 | — | 6,836 |
| Rasmussen Jorgen Buhl | director | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 48 | — | 14,790 |
| Smurfit Anthony P J | director, President and CEO | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 486 | — | 1,728,994 |
| Smurfit Anthony P J | director, President and CEO | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 910 | — | 85,854 |
| Page Irene | Chief Accounting Officer | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 23 | — | 62,787 |
| Page Irene | Chief Accounting Officer | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 152 | — | 14,361 |
| Mayer Saverio | See remarks | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 119 | — | 241,684 |
| Mayer Saverio | See remarks | 2026-09-10 | A-Award | 403 | — | 38,054 |
| 6-mo decomposition (Form 4) | Txns | Shares | Value | Signal weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F — Tax withholding | 26 | 38,594 | $1.5M | None — compensation |
| P — Open-market purchases | 0 | 0 | $0 | Counted — none occurred |
| Filed | Filer | Shares registered | Est. proceeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Bowles Ken | 10,000 | $0.5M |
| 2026-02-19 | Smurfit Anthony P J | 40,000 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-18 | Laurent Sellier | 5,685 | $0.3M |
| 2026-02-17 | Skg Employee Trust | 274,700 | $13.9M |
| Trailing 12 mo | 4 filings | 330,385 | $17M |
| Filed | Form | Reporting person | % of class | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | Capital Research Global Investors | 8.10% | 42.7M sh |
| 2026-08-07 | SCHEDULE 13G | STATE STREET CORPORATION | 5.40% | 28.1M sh |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHEDULE 13G | Vanguard Capital Management | 7.49% | 39.3M sh |
| 2026-03-27 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | The Vanguard Group | — | exit/reporting change |
| Member | Chamber | Trade | Size band | Traded | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Ray Cisneros | House | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-12-15 |
| Julie Johnson | House | SELL | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-15 |
| Manager | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Trinity Street Asset Management Ll | 5.9M | $260M |
| Artemis Investment Management Llp | 3.2M | $142M |
| Vontobel Holding Ltd. | 1.4M | $61M |
| Oslo Pensjonsforsikring As | 837,950 | $37M |
| Salem Investment Counselors Inc | 561,957 | $25M |
| Asr Vermogensbeheer N.V. | 182,680 | $8M |
| Fund | Weight | Position |
|---|---|---|
| VITSX | 0.0% | $732M |
| VSMPX | 0.0% | $732M |
| VTSAX | 0.0% | $732M |
| VTI | 0.0% | $732M |
| VFFSX | 0.0% | $607M |
| VFIAX | 0.0% | $607M |
| ATS Venue (4-wk) | Shares | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|
| Incr Intelligent Cross Llc | 6.7M | 72 sh |
| Ubsa Ubs Ats | 5.7M | 76 sh |
| Ebxl Level Ats | 4.4M | 52 sh |
| Bids Bids Ats | 3.7M | 543 sh |
| Sgmt Sigma X2 | 3.2M | 74 sh |
| Mstx Ms Trajectory Cross (Ats-1) | 3.0M | 87 sh |
| Region | Revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|
| UNITED STATES | $14.5B | 46% |
| Other Europe, MEA And APAC | $7.2B | 23% |
| Other Americas | $3.4B | 11% |
| MEXICO | $2.5B | 8% |
| GERMANY | $1.9B | 6% |
| FRANCE | $1.5B | 5% |
| IRELAND | $226M | 1% |
Moat score 53/100 — Weak; primary source Efficient Scale.
| Officer | Title |
|---|---|
| Anthony Paul J. Smurfit | President, Group Chief Executive Officer & Director |
| Ken Bowles | Executive Vice President, Group Chief Financial Officer & Executive Director |
| Laurent Sellier | President & Chief Executive Officer North America (Including Mexico) |
| Saverio Mayer | President & Chief Executive Officer of Europe, MEA & APAC |
| Period | EPS est. | EPS actual | EPS surprise | Rev est. ($M) | Rev actual ($M) | Rev surprise |
|---|
| YoY growth | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +22.9% | +20.3% | -13.2% | +86.0% | +38.7% |
| Gross profit | -18.1% | +29.9% | -9.5% | +46.4% | +35.6% |
| Operating income | +24.0% | +31.7% | -14.6% | -21.8% | +64.9% |
| Net income | +29.3% | +37.0% | -22.6% | -58.8% | +114.2% |
| $B · FY ends | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.5 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 20.4 | 28.3 | |
| Cost of revenue | 8.1 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 16.3 | 22.8 | |
| Gross profit | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.5 | |
| R&D expense | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| SG&A expense | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | |
| Operating income | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | |
| EBITDA | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.9 | |
| D&A | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | |
| Pretax income | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | |
| Income tax | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Net income | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 3.09 | 3.80 | 3.22 | 0.79 | 1.23 | |
| Diluted shares (M) | 260 | 261 | 260 | 389 | 539 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| ST investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Receivables (net) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | |
| Total current assets | 4.5 | 4.6 | 10.1 | 10.4 | |
| PP&E (net) | 5.0 | 6.2 | 22.7 | 19.8 | |
| Goodwill + intangibles | 2.8 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | |
| Total assets | 12.5 | 14.1 | 43.8 | 45.2 | |
| Accounts payable | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | |
| Short-term debt | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | |
| Deferred revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Total current liabilities | 3.0 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | |
| Long-term debt | 3.3 | 3.6 | 12.5 | 13.4 | |
| Total liabilities | 7.5 | 7.9 | 26.4 | 26.8 | |
| Shareholders' equity | 5.0 | 6.2 | 17.4 | 18.4 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 | |
| D&A | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 | |
| Stock-based compensation | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Working capital change | (0.3) | 0.2 | (0.3) | 0.1 | |
| Operating cash flow | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.9 | |
| Capital expenditures | (0.9) | (0.9) | (1.5) | (1.9) | |
| Investing cash flow | (1.0) | (0.9) | (2.1) | (1.8) | |
| Buybacks | (0.1) | (0.0) | (0.0) | 0.0 | |
| Dividends paid | (0.3) | (0.4) | (0.7) | (0.8) | |
| Debt issuance / (repay) | (0.0) | (0.1) | 1.4 | 0.1 | |
| Financing cash flow | (0.4) | (0.5) | 0.6 | (1.1) | |
| Free cash flow | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Ratio | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | ||||
| ROE | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3% | |
| ROA | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | |
| ROIC | 0.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | |
| Gross margin | 19.9% | 19.4% | 18.0% | |
| Operating margin | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | |
| Net margin | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | |
| EBITDA margin | 13.5% | 13.8% | 14.1% | |
| FCF margin | 0.2% | 4.1% | — | |
| VALUATION | ||||
| P/E | 3808.58 | 30.91 | 43.3 | |
| P/B | 1.36 | 1.14 | 1.2 | |
| P/S | 1.67 | 0.71 | 0.71 | |
| P/FCF | 1083.00 | 17.37 | 21.3 | |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.28 | 7.48 | 8.2 | |
| EV/Revenue | 2.57 | 1.11 | 1.2 | |
| Earnings yield | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.26% | |
| FCF yield | 0.1% | 5.8% | 4.70% | |
| Ratio | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE & SOLVENCY | ||||
| Current ratio | 1.37 | 1.48 | 1.45 | |
| Quick ratio | 0.89 | 1.03 | 0.96 | |
| Debt / equity | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.79 | |
| Debt / assets | 31.1% | 28.0% | 31.3% | |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 7.09 | 2.70 | 3.16 | |
| Interest coverage | 1.87 | 2.55 | — | |
| Ratio | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFFICIENCY | ||||
| Asset turnover | 0.32 | 0.66 | 0.67 | |
| Receivables turnover | 3.44 | 7.59 | 6.2 | |
| DSO (days) | 106 | 48 | 59 | |
| DPO (days) | 104 | 49 | 51 | |
| Cash conversion cycle | 114 | 51 | 61 | |
| GROWTH (YoY) | ||||
| Revenue growth | — | 107.5% | — | |
| Net income growth | — | 10740.7% | — | |
| EPS growth | — | 9103.4% | — | |
| FCF growth | — | 5387.0% | — | |
| PER SHARE ($) | ||||
| EPS (diluted, TTM) | 0.01 | 1.25 | 0.93 | |
| Book value / share | 37.95 | 34.01 | 34.50 | |
| Revenue / share | 30.97 | 54.56 | 57.90 | |
| FCF / share | 0.05 | 2.23 | 1.94 | |
| Cash / share | 1.87 | 1.66 | 1.29 | |
| SHAREHOLDER RETURN & SCORES | ||||
| Buyback yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.09 | 1.43 | 1.4 | |
| Piotroski F-Score | 4 | 8 | 7/9 | |
| Beneish M-Score | — | -2.78 | -2.71 | |
| Model | Score | Zone | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piotroski F-Score | 7 / 9 | Strong | |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.4 | Distress (<1.81) | Distress |
| Income quality | 5.09 | Cash-backed | OCF ÷ net income |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.71 | Non-manipulator | vs −2.22 threshold |
| DuPont Decomposition (TTM) | Value |
|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.68 |
| Interest burden | 0.47 |
| Operating margin | 4.9% |
| Asset turnover | 0.67× |
| Financial leverage | 2.50× |
| = ROE | 3% |
| Growth Quality (live) | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue stability | — |
| Earnings stability | — |
| Earnings persistence | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3y | — |
| EPS CAGR 3y | — |
| FCF CAGR 3y | — |
| Company | Mkt cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Rev growth | Piotroski | 1-yr ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PKG | $21.0B | 30.5 | 15% | 7.7% | +10.3% | 4/9 | +15.7% |
| AMCR | $20.3B | 16.3 | 9% | 6.1% | +56.6% | 7/9 | +14.3% |
| BALL | $16.7B | 17.9 | 17% | 5.5% | +15.7% | 9/9 | +33.3% |
| AVY | $13.3B | 19.2 | 31% | 8.3% | +5.8% | 8/9 | +12.5% |
| CCK | $12.4B | 16.4 | 27% | 6.7% | +10.3% | 7/9 | — |
| SEE | $6.2B | 15.8 | 54% | 8.1% | -0.6% | 5/9 | — |
| SON | $4.9B | 7.7 | 19% | 5.6% | +31.7% | 5/9 | — |
| SLGN | $4.0B | 14.8 | 12% | 4.6% | +8.4% | 7/9 | — |
| Consensus estimates | Revenue mean | High / Low | EPS mean | High / Low | # EPS est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $32.24B | $32.49B / $32.08B | $2.15 | $2.30 / $2.05 | 6 |
| FY2027 | $34.40B | $35.12B / $33.52B | $3.56 | $3.91 / $3.24 | 10 |
| FY2028 | $35.09B | $36.49B / $33.13B | $4.05 | $4.74 / $3.38 | 8 |
| Window | Avg Target | vs. Price | # Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Month | $55.00 | +33.6% | 1 |
| Last Quarter | $78.00 | +89.5% | 6 |
| Last Year | $60.27 | +46.4% | 22 |
| All Time | $58.75 | +42.7% | 32 |
| Moving Average | Value | Distance | % Distance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $43.22 | -2.06 | -4.77% | Below |
| SMA 50 | $45.29 | -4.13 | -9.12% | Below |
| SMA 200 | $43.32 | -2.16 | -4.99% | Below |
| EMA 9 | $41.57 | -0.41 | -0.99% | Below |
| EMA 21 | $42.72 | -1.56 | -3.65% | Below |
| EMA 50 | $44.06 | -2.90 | -6.58% | Below |
| EMA 200 | $43.56 | -2.40 | -5.51% | Below |
| Level | Value | Level | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot / R1 / R2 | $41.23 / $42.19 / $43.14 | S1 / S2 | $40.28 / $39.32 |
| Bollinger (20,2) | $39.12 – $47.31 | Squeeze | Off |
| 52-wk range | $32.73 – $52.22 | Off 52-wk high | -21.2% |
| ATR (14) | $1.26 (3.1%) | Historical vol | 23.4% |
| Computed from live weekly prices | SW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly volatility (σ, 1y) | 5.96% | 1.83% |
| Best / worst week (1y) | +13.3% / -16.2% | — |
| Max drawdown (5y, monthly) | -33.1% | — |
| 1-week VaR (95%) | -9.8% | — |
| Beta (5y) | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| Reading | SW | Packaging & Containers n=399 | Consumer Cyclical n=5,686 | All US symbols n=70,435 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -45.4 | -23.8 | -20.5 | -20.5 |
| Trend | -48.6 | -24.5 | -25.1 | -21.3 |
| Momentum | -43.0 | -18.0 | -15.0 | -15.8 |
| Volume | -40.0 | -27.1 | -10.0 | -3.8 |
| Executive | Total comp | Structure |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smurfit – President & Group Chief Ex | $16.4M | 89% equity+incentive |
| Ken Bowles – Executive Vice President & Grou | $7.2M | 66% equity+incentive |
| Laurent Sellier – President & Chief Executiv | $6.1M | 67% equity+incentive |
| Saverio Mayer – President & Chief Executive | $5.2M | 68% equity+incentive |
| Ben Garren – Executive Vice President & Grou | $2.7M | 71% equity+incentive |
| Pillar (live disclosure scores) | Score |
|---|---|
| Environmental | 56 |
| Social | 63 |
| Governance | 64 |
| Composite ESG | 61 |
| Filed | 8-K contents | Items |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Earnings Release; Regulation FD; Exhibits | 2.02,7.01,9.01 |
| 2026-05-01 | Shareholder Vote | 5.07 |
| 2026-04-30 | Earnings Release; Regulation FD; Exhibits | 2.02,7.01,9.01 |
| 2026-02-27 | Departure/Election of Directors; Appointment of Officers | 5.02 |
| 2026-02-11 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosur | 2.02,7.01,9.01 |
| 2025-11-24 | Creation of Direct Financial Obligation; Other Events; Financial State | 2.03,8.01,9.01 |
| 2025-10-29 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosur | 2.02,7.01,9.01 |
| 2025-07-30 | Results of Operations and Financial Condition; Regulation FD Disclosur | 2.02,7.01,9.01 |
Methodology. Every figure originates in InsiderStreet's production data layer and is computed deterministically by the same engines that power insiderstreet.ai. This factsheet contains no model-written text. Sections without underlying data are omitted rather than estimated.
| Data domain | Source | Coverage for this report |
|---|---|---|
| Price & volume | market_db.historical_prices | 52 rows |
| Fundamentals | income_statements_annual | 6 rows · 2020 to 2025 |
| Reported vs consensus | fact/earnings_calendar | 14 rows · 2020-06-28 to 2026-07-29 |
| Analyst estimates | dim/forward_estimates | 3 rows · 2026-12-31 to 2028-12-31 |
| Institutional ownership (13F) | holdings_db.institutional_ownership_summary | 8 rows · 2024 to 2026 |
| Insider transactions (Form 4) | edgar/form4 | 12 rows · 2026-09-10 |
| Proposed sales (Form 144) | edgar/form144 | 1 record |
| Beneficial ownership (13D/G) | edgar/13dg | 4 rows · 2026-03-27 to 2026-08-12 |
| Short-sale volume (FINRA) | edgar/short_volume_daily | 60 rows · 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-15 |
| Dark pool (ATS, tier 1) | edgar/darkpool_weekly | 12 rows · 2026-06-15 to 2026-08-31 |
| ETF & fund holding | etf_holdings_changelog (30d) | 1 record |
| Peer set | stock_peers_dynamic | 8 rows |
| Industry medians | industry_medians | 1 record |
| Congressional trades | congress_db (House + Senate) | 1 record |
| ESG | fact/esg_disclosures | 1 record |
Method. Every figure in this factsheet is looked up from a named field computed in code. It contains no model-written text.
Not covered. Short interest as a percent of float and days-to-cover are not in this data set — the short-sale figures above are FINRA volume, a flow, and cannot support squeeze or covering analysis. Options positioning and intraday data are also absent. 13F ownership is filed 45 days after quarter end and congressional trades are disclosed on a lag, so both describe a past position, not a current one.