| Profitability | 50/100 |
| Growth | 18/100 |
| Momentum | 51/100 |
| Quality | 56/100 |
| Earnings Quality | 71/100 |
| Balance Sheet | 28/100 |
| Value | 42/100 |
| Risk (safety) | 30/100 |
| Overall | 26.8/100 |
| Symbol | IS Score |
|---|---|
| CEG | 42 |
| NRG | 38 |
| TLN | 21 |
| OKLO | 39 |
| ETR | 37 |
| SRE | 35 |
| VST | 27 |
These two disagree — business quality 27, price structure 75 out of 100, so the price reads better than the business does. We publish the disagreement rather than resolving it: they answer different questions, and the gap between them is information, not an error.
| Trigger | Where it stands now | What it would mean |
|---|---|---|
| IS Score reaches 55 and holds two consecutive quarters | now 26.8 | would move us up one band |
| IS Score stops falling - one quarter higher than the prior | last four: 43 → 13 → 25 → 27 | the direction matters more than the level |
| Technical vote share back above 50% | now 82% | price structure no longer broken |
| Institutional holder count rises two quarters running | peak 1,413 → now 1,413 | fewer institutions willing to hold is our clearest warning |
This page is InsiderStreet's own reading, produced from the data in the rest of this document. It is not a price target and not investment advice. Analyst consensus and street price targets appear later under their own heading and are the street's numbers, not ours.
| Quarter | Holders | 13F shares | Value | Reported own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 1,413 | 287.1M | $44.3B | 85.2% |
| 2026 Q1 | 1,316 | 277.4M | $41.0B | 82.3% |
| 2025 Q4 | 1,339 | 290.5M | $46.0B | 86.2% |
| 2025 Q3 | 1,331 | 283.1M | $54.8B | 84.0% |
| 2025 Q2 | 1,271 | 288.7M | $55.6B | 85.7% |
| 2025 Q1 | 1,111 | 272.4M | $31.7B | 80.9% |
| 2024 Q4 | 1,100 | 286.5M | $39.3B | 85.1% |
| 2024 Q3 | 913 | 299.5M | $35.0B | 88.9% |
| 2024 Q2 | 794 | 307.2M | $26.1B | 91.2% |
| 2024 Q1 | 666 | 319.7M | $22.4B | 94.9% |
| 2023 Q4 | 544 | 314.6M | $12.0B | 93.4% |
| 2023 Q3 | 491 | 332.3M | $11.0B | 98.7% |
| Insider | Role | Date | Type | Shares | Value | Post-Txn Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | 2026-10-07 | SELL | 20,000 | $3.30M | 179,044 |
| Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 2026-10-06 | SELL | 22,222 | $3.56M | 308,915 |
| Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | 2026-09-08 | SELL | 20,000 | $3.02M | 199,044 |
| Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 2026-09-08 | SELL | 7,777 | $1.17M | 367,804 |
| Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 2026-09-08 | SELL | 28,826 | $4.38M | 338,978 |
| Hudson Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | 2026-09-08 | SELL | 7,841 | $1.20M | 331,137 |
| Burke James A | director, President and CEO | 2026-09-01 | BUY | 4,465 | $0.60M | 1,146,352 |
| Burke James A | director, President and CEO | 2026-08-31 | BUY | 2,200 | $0.30M | 1,141,887 |
| 6-mo decomposition (Form 4) | Txns | Shares | Value | Signal weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S — Open-market sales | 15 | 173,254 | $27.5M | Counted |
| P — Open-market purchases | 3 | 8,665 | $1.2M | Counted |
| F — Tax withholding | 6 | 23,154 | $3.9M | None — compensation |
| Filed | Filer | Shares registered | Est. proceeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | 20,000 | $3.1M |
| 2026-10-06 | Scott A Hudson | 22,222 | $3.6M |
| 2026-09-08 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | 20,000 | $3.0M |
| 2026-09-08 | Scott A Hudson | 44,444 | $6.7M |
| Trailing 12 mo | 53 filings | 1,141,715 | $217M |
| Filed | Form | Reporting person | % of class | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | SCHEDULE 13G | STATE STREET CORPORATION | 5.00% | 16.9M sh |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHEDULE 13G | Vanguard Capital Management | 7.25% | 24.6M sh |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHEDULE 13G | Vanguard Portfolio Management | 5.01% | 17.0M sh |
| 2026-03-26 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | The Vanguard Group | — | exit/reporting change |
| Member | Chamber | Trade | Size band | Traded | Disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-10-09 |
| Ro Khanna | House | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-04-13 | 2026-05-13 |
| Julia Letlow | House | BUY | $1,001 - $15,000 | 2026-02-17 | 2026-03-13 |
| Manager | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Sapient Capital Llc | 681,591 | $94M |
| Two Seas Capital Lp | 378,854 | $52M |
| Segra Capital Management, Llc | 373,456 | $52M |
| Guyasuta Investment Advisors Inc | 364,074 | $50M |
| Oak Grove Capital Llc | 224,510 | $31M |
| Wealth Enhancement Advisory Servic | 178,621 | $9M |
| Fund | Weight | Position |
|---|---|---|
| VITSX | 0.1% | $1.5B |
| VSMPX | 0.1% | $1.5B |
| VTSAX | 0.1% | $1.5B |
| VTI | 0.1% | $1.5B |
| VFIAX | 0.1% | $1.1B |
| VOO | 0.1% | $1.1B |
| ATS Venue (4-wk) | Shares | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|
| Ubsa Ubs Ats | 5.8M | 56 sh |
| Incr Intelligent Cross Llc | 5.7M | 53 sh |
| Sgmt Sigma X2 | 3.8M | 52 sh |
| Ebxl Level Ats | 2.6M | 33 sh |
| Mspl Ms Pool (Ats-4) | 2.2M | 153 sh |
| Mlix Instinct X | 2.0M | 68 sh |
| Region | Revenue | Share |
|---|---|---|
| East | $6.2B | 95% |
| West | $328M | 5% |
Moat score 50/100 — Weak; primary source Efficient Scale.
| Officer | Title |
|---|---|
| James A. Burke | President, Chief Executive Officer & Director |
| Stacey H. Dore | Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer & Executive Vice President of Public Affairs |
| Scott A. Hudson | Executive Vice President & President of Retail |
| Kristopher E. Moldovan | Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer |
| Period | EPS est. | EPS actual | EPS surprise | Rev est. ($M) | Rev actual ($M) | Rev surprise |
|---|
| YoY growth | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +20.5% | +33.8% | -12.9% | +24.7% | -12.4% |
| Gross profit | -97.6% | +6256.7% | +35.6% | +48.8% | -61.3% |
| Operating income | -166.7% | -367.0% | +48.3% | +59.2% | -78.6% |
| Net income | -300.3% | -3.7% | -221.7% | +78.1% | -64.5% |
| $B · FY ends | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.3 | 17.8 | 15.5 | 19.4 | 17.0 | |
| Cost of revenue | 13.3 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 14.0 | |
| Gross profit | 0.1 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | |
| R&D expense | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| SG&A expense | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | |
| Operating income | -1.0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 1.3 | |
| EBITDA | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.3 | |
| D&A | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3.0 | |
| Pretax income | -1.7 | -1.6 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | |
| Income tax | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| Net income | -1.3 | -1.2 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | |
| Diluted EPS ($) | -2.62 | -2.86 | 3.58 | 7.00 | 2.21 | |
| Diluted shares (M) | 482 | 422 | 375 | 353 | 340 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | |
| ST investments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Receivables (net) | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | |
| Total current assets | 11.1 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 9.2 | |
| PP&E (net) | 12.6 | 12.4 | 18.2 | 19.9 | |
| Goodwill + intangibles | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | |
| Total assets | 32.8 | 33.0 | 37.8 | 41.6 | |
| Accounts payable | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | |
| Short-term debt | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 4.2 | |
| Deferred revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Total current liabilities | 10.3 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 11.8 | |
| Long-term debt | 11.9 | 12.1 | 15.4 | 15.8 | |
| Total liabilities | 27.9 | 27.6 | 32.2 | 36.4 | |
| Shareholders' equity | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| $B | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | (1.2) | 1.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | |
| D&A | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | |
| Stock-based compensation | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Working capital change | (2.6) | 1.6 | (0.4) | (1.2) | |
| Operating cash flow | 0.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 | |
| Capital expenditures | (1.3) | (1.7) | (2.1) | (3.9) | |
| Investing cash flow | (1.2) | (2.1) | (5.3) | (4.4) | |
| Buybacks | (1.9) | (1.2) | (1.3) | (1.0) | |
| Dividends paid | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.5) | |
| Debt issuance / (repay) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 | |
| Financing cash flow | (0.1) | (0.3) | (1.6) | (0.1) | |
| Free cash flow | (0.8) | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | |||||||
| ROE | -15.3% | -18.6% | 29.2% | 48.9% | 17.7% | 41% | |
| ROA | -4.6% | -3.9% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 5.2% | |
| ROIC | -4.3% | 8.5% | 17.7% | 23.2% | 3.3% | 8.3% | |
| Gross margin | 0.5% | 21.4% | 33.3% | 39.7% | 17.5% | 38.0% | |
| Operating margin | -7.4% | 14.8% | 25.2% | 32.1% | 7.9% | 18.6% | |
| Net margin | -9.6% | -6.9% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 5.6% | 11.6% | |
| EBITDA margin | 6.4% | 7.2% | 29.7% | 37.1% | 30.9% | 34.2% | |
| FCF margin | -9.3% | -4.6% | 24.3% | 12.1% | 3.8% | — | |
| VALUATION | |||||||
| P/E | -7.79 | -7.09 | 8.94 | 17.54 | 58.07 | 25.3 | |
| P/B | 1.20 | 1.78 | 2.52 | 8.38 | 10.73 | 9.3 | |
| P/S | 0.75 | 0.49 | 0.86 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.66 | |
| P/FCF | -8.01 | -10.67 | 3.53 | 19.82 | 85.66 | 37.1 | |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.87 | 16.28 | 5.32 | 8.74 | 15.22 | 10.7 | |
| EV/Revenue | 1.48 | 1.21 | 1.58 | 3.24 | 4.45 | 3.7 | |
| Earnings yield | -12.8% | -14.1% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 4.33% | |
| FCF yield | -12.5% | -9.4% | 28.3% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 2.70% | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEVERAGE & SOLVENCY | |||||||
| Current ratio | 1.35 | 1.08 | 1.18 | 0.96 | 0.78 | 0.97 | |
| Quick ratio | 1.24 | 1.02 | 1.11 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.97 | |
| Debt / equity | 1.33 | 2.72 | 2.77 | 3.12 | 3.99 | 3.63 | |
| Debt / assets | 37.1% | 40.7% | 44.5% | 46.0% | 49.1% | 46.7% | |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 10.80 | 9.71 | 2.43 | 2.25 | 4.01 | 2.96 | |
| Interest coverage | -1.88 | -0.83 | 3.67 | 4.18 | 1.66 | — | |
| Ratio | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFFICIENCY | |||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.45 | |
| Receivables turnover | 9.92 | 10.32 | 8.33 | 10.60 | 7.77 | 8.4 | |
| DSO (days) | 37 | 35 | 44 | 34 | 47 | 44 | |
| DPO (days) | 33 | 38 | 48 | 42 | 41 | 46 | |
| Cash conversion cycle | 19 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 32 | -3 | |
| GROWTH (YoY) | |||||||
| Revenue growth | 20.0% | 34.4% | -12.9% | 24.7% | -13.7% | — | |
| Net income growth | -300.3% | 3.6% | 221.6% | 78.1% | -64.5% | — | |
| EPS growth | -309.0% | -15.6% | 235.3% | 84.2% | -64.5% | — | |
| FCF growth | -159.6% | 34.1% | 562.9% | -37.7% | -72.8% | — | |
| PER SHARE ($) | |||||||
| EPS (diluted, TTM) | -2.72 | -3.14 | 4.25 | 7.83 | 2.78 | 6.59 | |
| Book value / share | 17.68 | 12.53 | 15.10 | 16.39 | 15.04 | 16.31 | |
| Revenue / share | 28.30 | 45.59 | 44.22 | 57.03 | 49.23 | 57.03 | |
| FCF / share | -2.64 | -2.09 | 10.75 | 6.93 | 1.88 | 4.08 | |
| Cash / share | 2.82 | 1.16 | 9.92 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.29 | |
| SHAREHOLDER RETURN & SCORES | |||||||
| Buyback yield | 4.7% | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.22% | |
| Altman Z-Score | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.99 | 1.75 | 1.38 | 1.6 | |
| Piotroski F-Score | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6/9 | |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.46 | -8.26 | -3.89 | -2.21 | -2.44 | -2.95 | |
| Model | Score | Zone | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piotroski F-Score | 6 / 9 | Middling | |
| Altman Z-Score | 1.6 | Distress (<1.81) | Distress |
| Income quality | 5.79 | Cash-backed | OCF ÷ net income |
| Beneish M-Score | -2.95 | Non-manipulator | vs −2.22 threshold |
| DuPont Decomposition (TTM) | Value |
|---|---|
| Tax burden | 0.79 |
| Interest burden | 0.72 |
| Operating margin | 24.2% |
| Asset turnover | 0.40× |
| Financial leverage | 7.84× |
| = ROE | 43% |
| Growth Quality (live) | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue stability | 0.38 |
| Earnings stability | 0.81 |
| Earnings persistence | 0.97 |
| Revenue CAGR 3y | -2.2% |
| EPS CAGR 3y | 15.6% |
| FCF CAGR 3y | -19.2% |
| Company | Mkt cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Rev growth | Piotroski | 1-yr ret |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $96.1B | 26.3 | 15% | 6.8% | +26.0% | 3/9 | -31.5% |
| NRG | $21.8B | 27.3 | 24% | 6.8% | +12.9% | 6/9 | -38.2% |
| TLN | $16.8B | -87.8 | -13% | -12.3% | +65.8% | 4/9 | -15.1% |
| OKLO | $5.2B | -29.4 | -8% | — | — | 4/9 | -82.7% |
| ETR | $50.2B | 26.5 | 10% | 13.8% | +9.5% | 6/9 | — |
| SRE | $54.5B | 24.0 | 7% | 26.6% | +2.8% | 6/9 | — |
| XEL | $47.7B | 20.8 | 10% | 18.8% | +4.7% | 3/9 | — |
| D | $55.9B | 22.0 | 9% | 7.5% | +20.3% | 6/9 | — |
| Consensus estimates | Revenue mean | High / Low | EPS mean | High / Low | # EPS est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $22.46B | $24.63B / $19.25B | $8.65 | $10.19 / $7.52 | 8 |
| FY2027 | $24.63B | $27.98B / $20.25B | $10.25 | $12.29 / $8.78 | 9 |
| FY2028 | $25.96B | $31.81B / $18.68B | $12.14 | $13.86 / $11.31 | 8 |
| Window | Avg Target | vs. Price | # Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Month | $197.67 | +30.0% | 3 |
| Last Quarter | $207.75 | +36.7% | 8 |
| Last Year | $221.68 | +45.8% | 31 |
| All Time | $192.11 | +26.4% | 55 |
| Moving Average | Value | Distance | % Distance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $148.04 | +3.98 | +2.69% | Above |
| SMA 50 | $144.84 | +7.18 | +4.96% | Above |
| SMA 200 | $154.55 | -2.53 | -1.64% | Below |
| EMA 9 | $154.12 | -2.10 | -1.36% | Below |
| EMA 21 | $150.50 | +1.52 | +1.01% | Above |
| EMA 50 | $148.19 | +3.83 | +2.58% | Above |
| EMA 200 | $154.26 | -2.24 | -1.45% | Below |
| Level | Value | Level | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot / R1 / R2 | $151.49 / $157.14 / $160.10 | S1 / S2 | $148.53 / $142.88 |
| Bollinger (20,2) | $128.44 – $167.63 | Squeeze | Off |
| 52-wk range | $132.66 – $217.10 | Off 52-wk high | -30.0% |
| ATR (14) | $7.45 (4.9%) | Historical vol | 58.8% |
| Computed from live weekly prices | VST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly volatility (σ, 1y) | 5.74% | 1.83% |
| Best / worst week (1y) | +12.4% / -14.4% | — |
| Max drawdown (5y, monthly) | -46.7% | — |
| 1-week VaR (95%) | -11.0% | — |
| Beta (5y) | 1.41 | 1.00 |
| Reading | VST | Independent Power Producers n=141 | Utilities n=1,247 | All US symbols n=70,435 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +12.5 | -11.5 | -13.6 | -20.5 |
| Trend | +27.1 | -23.2 | -17.2 | -21.3 |
| Momentum | +30.3 | +0.2 | -4.2 | -15.8 |
| Volume | +37.9 | +15.0 | +0.0 | -3.8 |
| Executive | Total comp | Structure |
|---|---|---|
| James A. Burke President and Chief Executive | $16.0M | 90% equity+incentive |
| Stacey Doré Chief Strategy and Sustainabilit | $6.8M | 90% equity+incentive |
| Kristopher E. Moldovan EVP and Chief Financi | $6.7M | 90% equity+incentive |
| Scott A. Hudson EVP and President Vistra Ret | $4.1M | 83% equity+incentive |
| Stephanie Zapata Moore EVP, General Counsel, | $3.2M | 80% equity+incentive |
| Pillar (live disclosure scores) | Score |
|---|---|
| Environmental | 71 |
| Social | 70 |
| Governance | 72 |
| Composite ESG | 71 |
| Filed | 8-K contents | Items |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Material Agreement; Financial Obligation; Exhibits | 1.01,2.03,9.01 |
| 2026-09-24 | Material Agreement; Other Events; Exhibits | 1.01,8.01,9.01 |
| 2026-08-07 | Earnings Release; Exhibits | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2026-07-16 | Material Agreement; Financial Obligation; Exhibits | 1.01,2.03,9.01 |
| 2026-07-14 | Other Events | 8.01 |
| 2026-06-30 | Material Agreement; Financial Obligation; Exhibits | 1.01,2.03,9.01 |
| 2026-05-07 | Earnings Release; Exhibits | 2.02,9.01 |
| 2026-05-04 | Shareholder Vote | 5.07 |
Methodology. Every figure originates in InsiderStreet's production data layer and is computed deterministically by the same engines that power insiderstreet.ai. This factsheet contains no model-written text. Sections without underlying data are omitted rather than estimated.
| Data domain | Source | Coverage for this report |
|---|---|---|
| Price & volume | market_db.historical_prices | 52 rows |
| Fundamentals | income_statements_annual | 6 rows · 2020 to 2025 |
| Reported vs consensus | fact/earnings_calendar | 24 rows · 2020-11-04 to 2026-08-07 |
| Analyst estimates | dim/forward_estimates | 3 rows · 2026-12-31 to 2028-12-31 |
| Institutional ownership (13F) | holdings_db.institutional_ownership_summary | 41 rows · 2016 to 2026 |
| Insider transactions (Form 4) | edgar/form4 | 12 rows · 2026-06-18 to 2026-10-07 |
| Proposed sales (Form 144) | edgar/form144 | 1 record |
| Beneficial ownership (13D/G) | edgar/13dg | 4 rows · 2026-03-26 to 2026-08-07 |
| Short-sale volume (FINRA) | edgar/short_volume_daily | 60 rows · 2026-07-23 to 2026-10-15 |
| Dark pool (ATS, tier 1) | edgar/darkpool_weekly | 12 rows · 2026-06-15 to 2026-08-31 |
| ETF & fund holding | etf_holdings_changelog (30d) | 1 record |
| Peer set | stock_peers_dynamic | 8 rows |
| Industry medians | industry_medians | 1 record |
| Congressional trades | congress_db (House + Senate) | 1 record |
| ESG | fact/esg_disclosures | 1 record |
Method. Every figure in this factsheet is looked up from a named field computed in code. It contains no model-written text.
Not covered. Short interest as a percent of float and days-to-cover are not in this data set — the short-sale figures above are FINRA volume, a flow, and cannot support squeeze or covering analysis. Options positioning and intraday data are also absent. 13F ownership is filed 45 days after quarter end and congressional trades are disclosed on a lag, so both describe a past position, not a current one.