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Economic Surprises › Canada
Canada +8.6 ▬ vs 1w ago (+9.1)
Canada economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+8.6
1 Week Ago
+9.1
Releases (90d)
121
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with TSX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (121 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.4 -0.1 +3.861 Medium +116.11
2026-05-14 New Motor Vehicle Sales 176.5 119.0 +3.306 Low +68.69
2026-05-15 Housing Starts 279.3 240.0 +1.478 Medium +62.85
2026-05-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1 2.6 +1.176 Medium +54.86
2026-05-08 Part Time Employment Chg 29.0 2.0 +1.502 Medium +54.35
2026-05-22 CFIB Business Barometer 46.3 57.4 -1.871 Low -46.79
2026-05-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.3 48.5 +2.999 Low +46.15
2026-04-16 New Motor Vehicle Sales 124.0 80.0 +3.763 Low +40.95
2026-05-08 Unemployment Rate 6.9 6.7 -0.737 High -39.99
2026-04-30 Average Weekly Earnings 3.4 2.1 +2.498 Low +37.56
2026-05-05 Exports 72.77 65.5 +2.179 Low +36.78
2026-04-24 Wholesale Sales MoM 1.3 -0.1 +2.760 Low +36.14
2026-05-19 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 3.1 +0.453 High +31.69
2026-04-22 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.2 0.2 -1.223 Medium -30.58
2026-05-08 Full Time Employment Chg -46.7 18.0 -0.768 Medium -27.80
2026-04-24 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.2 +0.903 Medium +23.65
2026-05-08 Participation Rate 65.0 64.7 +0.628 Medium +22.71
2026-03-20 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 -0.3 +1.807 Medium +21.07
2026-05-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.7 +0.439 Medium +20.47
2026-04-02 Imports 72.05 65.8 +2.543 Low +20.03
2026-04-17 Housing Starts 235.9 255.0 -0.676 Medium -15.05
2026-05-05 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9 48.0 +0.848 Low +14.32
2026-03-20 New Housing Price Index MoM 0.3 -0.3 +1.223 Medium +14.27
2026-05-05 Imports 70.99 68.9 +0.812 Low +13.71
2026-03-06 PMI 56.6 51.1 +1.543 Medium +13.02
2026-03-31 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.772 Medium +11.61
2026-05-22 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 0.6 +0.226 Medium +11.29
2026-02-27 GDP Growth Rate QoQ -0.2 -0.1 -1.008 High -10.86
2026-05-05 S&P Global Services PMI 49.2 47.6 +0.613 Low +10.35
2026-04-10 Unemployment Rate 6.7 6.8 +0.363 High +10.32
2026-05-22 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 1.4 0.9 +0.201 Medium +10.03
2026-03-16 New Motor Vehicle Sales 114.41 90.0 +1.856 Low +9.87
2026-04-17 CFIB Business Barometer 58.5 54.0 +0.806 Low +8.98
2026-03-18 Foreign Securities Purchases 46.73 4.72 +1.570 Low +8.74
2026-04-10 Average Hourly Wages YoY 5.1 3.7 +0.887 Low +8.40
2026-05-22 Retail Sales YoY 3.4 1.5 +0.322 Low +8.04
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.2 +0.493 Medium +7.58
2026-03-26 Average Weekly Earnings 2.0 1.6 +1.009 Low +6.76
2026-04-20 Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.187 High +6.70
2026-02-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM -3.3 0.4 -1.959 Low -6.56
2026-03-27 Wholesale Sales MoM 2.3 0.4 +0.937 Low +6.42
2026-04-24 Retail Sales YoY 3.8 1.3 +0.489 Low +6.40
2026-04-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.4 -0.255 Medium -6.08
2026-02-26 Current Account -0.7 -7.7 +0.813 Medium +5.70
2026-02-26 Current Account -0.7 -7.7 +0.813 Medium +5.70
2026-04-02 Exports 66.31 64.0 +0.709 Low +5.58
2026-03-13 Unemployment Rate 6.7 6.6 -0.374 High -5.57
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.772 Medium +5.54
2026-03-13 Full Time Employment Chg -108.4 -30.0 -0.559 Medium -5.54
2026-05-19 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.232 Low +5.41
2026-03-24 CFIB Business Barometer 55.8 61.1 -0.839 Low -5.37
2026-03-12 Exports 62.48 66.0 -1.047 Low -5.07
2026-05-22 Producer Price Index MoM 2.0 1.3 -0.194 Low -4.84
2026-05-22 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.5 +0.090 Medium +4.52
2026-04-10 Full Time Employment Chg -1.1 10.0 -0.237 Medium -4.50
2026-04-10 Participation Rate 64.9 65.0 -0.208 Medium -3.95
2026-03-16 Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 1.9 +0.246 High +3.93
2026-03-13 Employment Change -83.9 10.0 -0.388 Medium -3.85
2026-03-16 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.2 -0.696 Low -3.70
2026-03-13 Average Hourly Wages YoY 4.2 3.2 +0.732 Low +3.63
2026-04-24 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.5 0.8 -0.135 Medium -3.55
2026-02-27 CFIB Business Barometer 64.8 59.0 +0.951 Low +3.42
2026-05-08 Employment Change -17.7 15.0 -0.090 Medium -3.26
2026-03-16 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.7 +0.293 Medium +3.11
2026-05-22 Producer Price Index YoY 11.4 10.0 -0.112 Low -2.81
2026-04-20 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.232 Low +2.77
2026-03-16 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.255 Medium +2.71
2026-04-06 S&P Global Services PMI 47.2 48.0 -0.304 Low -2.63
2026-04-24 Retail Sales MoM 0.7 0.9 -0.100 Medium -2.63
2026-02-26 Average Weekly Earnings 1.9 2.3 -0.702 Low -2.46
2026-04-20 Inflation Rate MoM 0.9 1.0 +0.102 Medium +2.44
2026-03-16 CPI 2.3 2.4 +0.443 Low +2.35
2026-04-23 Producer Price Index MoM 2.4 1.6 -0.180 Low -2.30
2026-05-15 Foreign Securities Purchases 4.62 11.4 -0.105 Low -2.23
2026-03-13 Participation Rate 64.9 64.8 +0.209 Medium +2.07
2026-04-23 Producer Price Index YoY 7.8 6.5 -0.160 Low -2.05
2026-02-25 Wholesale Sales MoM -0.6 0.3 -0.592 Low -2.03
2026-04-23 Manufacturing Sales MoM 3.5 2.2 +0.125 Low +1.60
2026-03-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM 3.8 1.8 +0.235 Low +1.50
2026-03-12 Imports 66.13 66.9 -0.308 Low -1.49
2026-04-17 Foreign Securities Purchases 6.17 23.81 -0.131 Low -1.46
2026-05-14 Wholesale Sales MoM 1.9 1.4 +0.070 Low +1.46
2026-03-20 Retail Sales MoM 1.1 1.5 -0.120 Medium -1.40
2026-03-20 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.8 1.2 -0.120 Medium -1.40
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.7 +0.179 Medium +1.38
2026-03-20 Producer Price Index MoM 0.4 1.1 +0.229 Low +1.34
2026-03-27 Budget Balance -5.07 -3.0 -0.184 Low -1.26
2026-03-12 Building Permits 4.8 -2.0 +0.243 Low +1.18
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 0.2 -1.3 +0.307 Low +1.10
2026-05-08 Average Hourly Wages YoY 4.8 4.9 -0.048 Low -0.87
2026-03-20 Raw Materials Prices MoM 0.6 2.4 +0.140 Low +0.81
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 46.5 46.0 +0.198 Low +0.80
2026-04-23 Raw Materials Prices YoY 23.6 14.0 -0.061 Low -0.78
2026-03-20 Retail Sales YoY 1.5 1.0 +0.127 Low +0.74
2026-05-05 Balance of Trade 1.78 -2.9 +0.022 Medium +0.74
2026-03-13 Part Time Employment Chg 24.5 15.0 +0.070 Medium +0.70
2026-04-23 Raw Materials Prices MoM 12.0 9.3 -0.054 Low -0.69
2026-03-12 Wholesale Sales MoM -1.0 -0.6 -0.131 Low -0.64
2026-05-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 3.0 3.5 -0.030 Low -0.64
2026-03-13 Capacity Utilization 78.5 78.4 +0.123 Low +0.61
2026-03-13 Capacity Utilization 78.5 78.4 +0.123 Low +0.61
2026-03-16 Housing Starts 250.9 252.5 -0.057 Medium -0.61
2026-04-10 Part Time Employment Chg 15.2 20.0 -0.027 Medium -0.51
2026-03-12 Balance of Trade -3.65 -0.9 -0.041 Medium -0.40
2026-04-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.6 47.5 +0.045 Low +0.39
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.1 46.9 +0.091 Low +0.37
2026-04-02 Balance of Trade -5.74 -2.3 -0.020 Medium -0.32
2026-03-06 Ivey PMI s.a 56.6 51.1 +0.022 High +0.28
2026-04-15 Wholesale Sales MoM 2.0 2.3 -0.026 Low -0.27
2026-05-22 Raw Materials Prices YoY 31.6 29.0 -0.008 Low -0.20
2026-05-22 Raw Materials Prices MoM 2.6 2.7 +0.007 Low +0.17
2026-04-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 3.6 3.8 -0.011 Low -0.12
2026-03-13 Manufacturing Sales MoM -3.0 -3.3 +0.019 Low +0.10
2026-03-20 Producer Price Index YoY 5.4 5.5 +0.015 Low +0.09
2026-04-10 Employment Change 14.1 15.0 -0.002 Medium -0.05
2026-02-27 GDP Implicit Price QoQ 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Labour Productivity QoQ -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-18 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-20 Raw Materials Prices YoY 8.6 8.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-29 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms