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Macro Regime Dashboard

Last updated: 2026-03-20 19:18

11 / 25

BULLISH

11 Bull · 10 Neutral · 4 Bear

Aggregate regime signal from 25 macro indicators.

Regime Score Trend

Indicators

Activity

Building Permits

BEAR

▼ -5.43% from prior

Activity

Capacity Utilization

BULL

76.3%

▲ +0.05% from prior

Activity

Durable Goods Orders

BULL

$321B

▼ -0.01% from prior

Activity

Industrial Production

BULL

102.6

▲ +0.15% from prior

Activity

TSI Freight Index

NEUTRAL

137.8

▼ -0.58% from prior

Activity

Truck Tonnage Index

BEAR

252750.0

▼ -4.93% from prior

Consumer

Consumer Sentiment

NEUTRAL

56.4

▲ +6.62% from prior

Consumer

Retail Sales

BULL

$634B

▼ -0.15% from prior

Consumer

Vehicle Sales

BULL

16.1M

▲ +5.98% from prior

Credit

HY Credit Spread

NEUTRAL

3.27%

▲ +2.19% from prior

Energy

WTI Crude Oil

NEUTRAL

$93.4

▼ -5.17% from prior

Housing

Case-Shiller Home Prices

NEUTRAL

327.5

▼ -0.27% from prior

Housing

New Home Sales

BEAR

587K

▼ -17.56% from prior

Inflation

CPI

NEUTRAL

327.5

▲ +0.27% from prior

Labor

Initial Claims

BULL

205K

▼ -3.76% from prior

Labor

Job Openings (JOLTS)

NEUTRAL

6.9M

▲ +6.05% from prior

Labor

Nonfarm Payrolls

BEAR

158.5M

▼ -0.06% from prior

Labor

Sahm Rule

BULL

0.27

▼ -10.0% from prior

Labor

Unemployment Rate

BULL

4.4%

▲ +2.33% from prior

Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet

NEUTRAL

$6.7T

▲ +0.14% from prior

Liquidity

M2 Money Supply

BULL

$22.4T

▲ +0.34% from prior

Market

VIX

NEUTRAL

24.1

▼ -4.11% from prior

Output

Real GDP

NEUTRAL

$24.1T

▲ +0.16% from prior

Rates

Fed Funds Rate

BULL

3.64%

— 0% from prior

Rates

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y

BULL

0.51%

▲ +10.87% from prior

Long-Term Regime Score vs S&P 500 (since 2001)

Monthly regime score from 2001 to present. Shaded red zones highlight periods where the score turned negative — compare with major drawdowns.

Treasury Yield Curve

Fed Rate Projections

Recession Probability

Smoothed recession probability (Markov-switching model) and GDP-based indicator. Grey bands show NBER-defined recessions.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan 2000 = 100). National composite and major metro areas.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan, Cboe, ICE BofA; retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. By using this page, you agree to the FRED® API Terms of Use.

Macro Regime Dashboard

Indicators

Long-Term Regime Score vs S&P 500 (since 2001)

Treasury Yield Curve

Fed Rate Projections

Recession Probability

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

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