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Each stock page has a Smart Money tab that shows congressional disclosures under the STOCK Act — senators and representatives, transaction type, date, and dollar range — typically disclosed within 45 days of the trade.

Macro Regime Dashboard

Last updated: 2026-05-19 19:18

11 / 25

BULLISH

11 Bull · 11 Neutral · 3 Bear

Aggregate regime signal from 25 macro indicators.

Regime Score Trend

Indicators

Activity

Building Permits

BEAR

▼ -11.38% from prior

Activity

Capacity Utilization

BULL

76.1%

▲ +0.59% from prior

Activity

Durable Goods Orders

NEUTRAL

$319B

▲ +0.85% from prior

Activity

Industrial Production

BULL

102.5

▲ +0.68% from prior

Activity

TSI Freight Index

BULL

139.8

▲ +1.53% from prior

Activity

Truck Tonnage Index

BULL

283207.0

▲ +15.59% from prior

Consumer

Consumer Sentiment

NEUTRAL

53.3

▼ -5.83% from prior

Consumer

Retail Sales

BULL

$656B

▲ +0.47% from prior

Consumer

Vehicle Sales

BULL

16.7M

▲ +3.71% from prior

Credit

HY Credit Spread

BULL

2.83%

▲ +1.07% from prior

Energy

WTI Crude Oil

BEAR

$101.6

▲ +2.72% from prior

Housing

Case-Shiller Home Prices

NEUTRAL

327.3

▲ +0.29% from prior

Housing

New Home Sales

BEAR

682K

▲ +7.4% from prior

Inflation

CPI

NEUTRAL

332.4

▲ +0.64% from prior

Labor

Initial Claims

NEUTRAL

211K

▲ +6.03% from prior

Labor

Job Openings (JOLTS)

NEUTRAL

6.9M

▼ -0.81% from prior

Labor

Nonfarm Payrolls

NEUTRAL

158.7M

▲ +0.07% from prior

Labor

Sahm Rule

BULL

0.13

▼ -35.0% from prior

Labor

Unemployment Rate

BULL

4.3%

— 0% from prior

Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet

NEUTRAL

$6.7T

▲ +0.28% from prior

Liquidity

M2 Money Supply

BULL

$22.7T

▲ +0.26% from prior

Market

VIX

NEUTRAL

17.8

▼ -3.31% from prior

Output

Real GDP

NEUTRAL

$24.2T

▲ +0.49% from prior

Rates

Fed Funds Rate

NEUTRAL

3.64%

— 0% from prior

Rates

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y

BULL

0.54%

— 0% from prior

Long-Term Regime Score vs S&P 500 (since 2001)

Monthly regime score from 2001 to present. Shaded red zones highlight periods where the score turned negative — compare with major drawdowns.

Treasury Yield Curve

Fed Rate Projections

Recession Probability

Smoothed recession probability (Markov-switching model) and GDP-based indicator. Grey bands show NBER-defined recessions.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jan 2000 = 100). National composite and major metro areas.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan, Cboe, ICE BofA; retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. By using this page, you agree to the FRED® API Terms of Use.

Macro Regime Dashboard

Indicators

Long-Term Regime Score vs S&P 500 (since 2001)

Treasury Yield Curve

Fed Rate Projections

Recession Probability

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

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