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Market Weather

Breadth, seasonality & regime — updated 2026-05-19 00:00:00

Market Regime
Risk-On
Dow Theory: CONFIRMED BULLISH
VIX
17.9
Normal
SPY TSI
+44.6
Bullish
QQQ TSI
+52.0
Bullish
DIA TSI
+20.5
Bullish
IWM TSI
+23.2
Bullish
Sector Strength
46%
Avg bullish

Stock Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
MSFT Microsoft Corporation +20 +17.3
WMT Walmart Inc. +25 +2.5
BRK-A Berkshire Hathaway Inc. +7 +9.7
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. +18 +32.1
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. -20 +5.1
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation +27 +3.6
V Visa Inc. -0 +8.5
JNJ Johnson & Johnson -21 +1.5
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation +30 +5.6
BAC-PL Bank of America Corporation -31 +5.3
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation +31 -4.0
AAPL Apple Inc. +33 -3.4
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. +11 -3.6
AVGO Broadcom Inc. +10 -1.2
TSLA Tesla, Inc. +18 -6.2
LLY Eli Lilly and Company +16 -4.7
MU Micron Technology, Inc. +34 -3.5
JPM-PC JPMorgan Chase & Co. -17 -12.2
JPM-PD JPMorgan Chase & Co. -41 -5.2
AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. +34 -1.5

ETF Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
BMOP BNY Mellon Municipal Opportunities ETF -0 +15.5
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF +13 +13.2
GRAG Leverage Shares 2x Long GRAB Daily ETF -38 +1.3
VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF +26 +20.0
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond ETF -12 +16.3
VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF +25 +19.1
SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF +24 +21.8
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF +6 +4.1
SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF +18 +3.9
SCHF Schwab International Equity ETF +6 +1.2
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF +18 -1.8
IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF +32 -2.1
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust +32 -3.8
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF +3 -2.5
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF +31 -1.9
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 +40 -3.1
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF -37 -4.3
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF -13 -2.4
LACG Leverage Shares 2x Long LAC Daily ETF -34 -19.3
VO Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF -39 -1.6

Macro Conditions

ETF proxies for gold, dollar, copper, and long-end rates · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · commentary derived from current pace vs seasonal trend

Gold GLD SPDR Gold Shares
$411.50
+3.32% YTD
Gold below seasonal — risk-on rotation or strong dollar pressure Trend continuing weak over last 30d.
Dollar UUP DXY proxy
$27.79
+2.51% YTD
Dollar near seasonal pace — no strong directional cue
Copper CPER United States Copper Index
$37.63
+7.58% YTD
Copper above trend — industrial demand healthy, China-growth proxy bullish Momentum positive over last 30d.
Long Bonds TLT Rate proxy — falls as yields rise
$83.02
-3.92% YTD
Long bonds soft vs seasonal — yields holding higher, no rate-cut catalyst yet Trend continuing weak over last 30d.

Presidential Cycle Seasonality

2026 — 2nd Term Year 2 (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year

SPY
YTD: +7.4%
QQQ
YTD: +14.6%
DIA
YTD: +2.3%
IWM
YTD: +9.8%

Sector ETF Seasonality

2026 — (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · all 11 sector SPDRs

XLK Technology
YTD: +20.1%
XLF Financials
YTD: -6.9%
XLE Energy
YTD: +34.2%
XLV Healthcare
YTD: -5.3%
XLI Industrials
YTD: +6.8%
XLY Discretionary
YTD: -2.8%
XLP Staples
YTD: +10.8%
XLU Utilities
YTD: +2.7%
XLRE Real Estate
YTD: +8.8%
XLB Materials
YTD: +6.3%
XLC Comm Services
YTD: -0.9%

Thematic ETF Seasonality

Sub-sector / industry plays beyond the GICS-11 · semis, airlines, biotech, energy E&P

Semiconductors SMH AI / chip demand proxy
YTD: +45.7%
Airlines JETS Travel / consumer recovery
YTD: -12.3%
Biotech XBI Equal-weighted small/mid biotech
YTD: +4.3%
Oil & Gas E&P XOP Energy / inflation play
YTD: +38.4%

Thematic ETF Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI · same metric as Index & Sector Breadth, applied to the thematic ETFs above

JETS Airlines
LEAN BEARISH
36%
Above SMA50: 32% Above SMA200: 15% Avg TSI: -6.8
SMH Semiconductors
BULLISH
96%
Above SMA50: 96% Above SMA200: 100% Avg TSI: +31.5
XBI Biotech
LEAN BEARISH
41%
Above SMA50: 30% Above SMA200: 55% Avg TSI: -1.5
XOP Oil & Gas E&P
NEUTRAL
53%
Above SMA50: 69% Above SMA200: 86% Avg TSI: +0.5

Index & Sector Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI (trend strength) — higher = broader participation

SPY S&P 500
NEUTRAL
46%
Above SMA50: 49% Above SMA200: 54% Avg TSI: -0.2
QQQ Nasdaq 100
NEUTRAL
50%
Above SMA50: 55% Above SMA200: 56% Avg TSI: +7.0
DIA Dow Jones
NEUTRAL
47%
Above SMA50: 53% Above SMA200: 57% Avg TSI: +4.2
IWM Russell 2000
NEUTRAL
54%
Above SMA50: 55% Above SMA200: 54% Avg TSI: +3.2
IYT Transports
LEAN BULLISH
62%
Above SMA50: 64% Above SMA200: 57% Avg TSI: +4.8
XLB Materials
NEUTRAL
54%
Above SMA50: 19% Above SMA200: 58% Avg TSI: -2.9
XLC Communication
LEAN BEARISH
43%
Above SMA50: 43% Above SMA200: 48% Avg TSI: +0.9
XLE Energy
BULLISH
71%
Above SMA50: 86% Above SMA200: 90% Avg TSI: +5.0
XLF Financials
NEUTRAL
47%
Above SMA50: 61% Above SMA200: 51% Avg TSI: +2.5
XLI Industrials
NEUTRAL
47%
Above SMA50: 41% Above SMA200: 49% Avg TSI: -3.3
XLK Technology
BULLISH
70%
Above SMA50: 77% Above SMA200: 59% Avg TSI: +17.4
XLP Consumer Staples
LEAN BEARISH
44%
Above SMA50: 47% Above SMA200: 53% Avg TSI: -0.2
XLRE Real Estate
BULLISH
77%
Above SMA50: 81% Above SMA200: 74% Avg TSI: +8.8
XLU Utilities
BEARISH
13%
Above SMA50: 19% Above SMA200: 71% Avg TSI: -13.6
XLV Healthcare
BEARISH
29%
Above SMA50: 34% Above SMA200: 44% Avg TSI: -7.3
XLY Consumer Disc.
BEARISH
15%
Above SMA50: 19% Above SMA200: 31% Avg TSI: -16.3

Stock Weather Distribution

☀️ Sunny: 72
⛅ Partly Cloudy: 3161
☁️ Cloudy: 4749
🌧️ Rainy: 3002
⛈️ Stormy: 1069

Sector Weather

Sector Score Stocks Sunny Cloudy Stormy
Energy +4.9 265 5 83 19
Financial Services -0.3 8202 40 3600 225
Technology -2.8 616 14 166 97
Real Estate -6.5 422 0 171 42
Industrials -11.0 569 4 177 128
Communication Services -13.6 206 1 60 53
Consumer Defensive -16.3 175 0 48 39
Healthcare -17.0 751 7 210 223
Basic Materials -17.1 246 0 75 49
Utilities -19.2 145 0 40 30
Consumer Cyclical -22.8 438 1 110 164

IPO Pulse

Operating-company IPOs only · SPACs (Shell Companies) excluded · Score and bands match Stock Weather methodology

IPO Weather
🌧️
Rainy
Score: -16 (-100 to +100)
Pace -10
$ Vol -13
Trend -9
Cycle -68
Trailing 12mo
385
priced (ex-SPAC)
TTM $ raised
$566.2B
aggregate mcap at IPO
vs 30y history
46th pctile
TTM count rank
IPO Pace — % of 20yr Average 100% = on seasonal trend
Now: 49% of normal

For deep IPO analytics (30y volume, post-IPO performance, leaderboard) see /ipos.

SPAC Pulse

Shell-company IPOs (SPACs) shown separately · Meaningful data starts 2018 · Peak: 2021 (269 IPOs)

SPAC Seasonality cumulative SPAC IPOs by trading day
40 YTD
SPAC Volume by Year 2015—present

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms