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Market Weather

Breadth, seasonality & regime — updated 2026-07-28 00:00:00

Market Regime
Neutral
Dow Theory: CONFIRMED BULLISH
VIX
18.2
Normal
SPY TSI
-0.8
Lean Bear
QQQ TSI
-13.3
Bearish
DIA TSI
+9.4
Lean Bull
IWM TSI
+1.1
Lean Bull
Sector Strength
66%
Avg bullish

Stock Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
AAPL Apple Inc. +27 +1.9
GOOG Alphabet Inc. -40 +11.1
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. -42 +8.5
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited -36 +1.7
AVGO Broadcom Inc. -6 +24.2
SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. -38 +1.3
MU Micron Technology, Inc. -30 +2.2
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. +30 +3.0
WMT Walmart Inc. -34 +10.1
JPM-PC JPMorgan Chase & Co -3 +2.1
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation -11 -5.7
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. -18 -4.3
META Meta Platforms, Inc. -16 -1.9
TSLA Tesla, Inc. -53 -3.5
JPM-PJ JPMorgan Chase & Co. -31 -2.5
JPM-PM JPMorgan Chase & Co. -38 -2.0
JPM-PK JPMorgan Chase & Co. -38 -3.0
JPM-PL JPMorgan Chase & Co. -35 -2.7
AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. -15 -8.8
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation +27 -3.3

ETF Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF -8 +18.9
IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF -9 +4.3
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF -6 +18.4
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF -8 +15.4
BMOP BNY Mellon Municipal Opportunities ETF -32 +6.4
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF -39 +2.8
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF -6 +1.0
VTV Vanguard Value ETF +26 +4.3
VO Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF -24 +2.7
VB Vanguard Small-Cap ETF +11 +2.1
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF -25 -2.1
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF -26 -3.0
IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF -43 -18.1
ATCL REX Autocallable Income ETF -9 -6.2
VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF +19 -1.1
XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF -31 -5.3
ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF -26 -1.6
QQQM Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF -36 -2.0
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF -1 -18.5
IVW iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF -33 -2.5

Macro Conditions

ETF proxies for gold, dollar, copper, and long-end rates · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · commentary derived from current pace vs seasonal trend

Gold GLD SPDR Gold Shares
$369.37
-7.26% YTD
Gold below seasonal — risk-on rotation or strong dollar pressure Trend continuing weak over last 30d.
Dollar UUP DXY proxy
$28.58
+5.42% YTD
Dollar firmer than seasonal — supportive of US assets, pressures EM and commodities
Copper CPER United States Copper Index
$38.33
+9.58% YTD
Copper above trend — industrial demand healthy, China-growth proxy bullish Momentum positive over last 30d.
Long Bonds TLT Rate proxy — falls as yields rise
$84.24
-2.51% YTD
Long bonds soft vs seasonal — yields holding higher, no rate-cut catalyst yet Trend continuing weak over last 30d.

Presidential Cycle Seasonality

2026 — 2nd Term Year 2 (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year

SPY
YTD: +8.4%
QQQ
YTD: +10.3%
DIA
YTD: +9.1%
IWM
YTD: +17.9%

Sector ETF Seasonality

2026 — (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · all 11 sector SPDRs

XLK Technology
YTD: +18.6%
XLF Financials
YTD: +4.8%
XLE Energy
YTD: +26.1%
XLV Healthcare
YTD: +7.6%
XLI Industrials
YTD: +15.5%
XLY Discretionary
YTD: -4.9%
XLP Staples
YTD: +12.1%
XLU Utilities
YTD: +5.4%
XLRE Real Estate
YTD: +13.9%
XLB Materials
YTD: +13.5%
XLC Comm Services
YTD: -6.2%

Thematic ETF Seasonality

Sub-sector / industry plays beyond the GICS-11 · semis, airlines, biotech, energy E&P

Semiconductors SMH AI / chip demand proxy
YTD: +41.9%
Airlines JETS Travel / consumer recovery
YTD: +12.6%
Biotech XBI Equal-weighted small/mid biotech
YTD: +23.3%
Oil & Gas E&P XOP Energy / inflation play
YTD: +29.0%

Thematic ETF Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI · same metric as Index & Sector Breadth, applied to the thematic ETFs above

JETS Airlines
LEAN BEARISH
40%
Above SMA50: 74% Above SMA200: 66% Avg TSI: +0.9
SMH Semiconductors
BEARISH
0%
Above SMA50: 0% Above SMA200: 88% Avg TSI: -15.0
XBI Biotech
LEAN BULLISH
60%
Above SMA50: 60% Above SMA200: 63% Avg TSI: +3.9
XOP Oil & Gas E&P
BULLISH
69%
Above SMA50: 37% Above SMA200: 57% Avg TSI: +8.6

Index & Sector Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI (trend strength) — higher = broader participation

SPY S&P 500
BULLISH
67%
Above SMA50: 71% Above SMA200: 70% Avg TSI: +6.9
QQQ Nasdaq 100
LEAN BEARISH
45%
Above SMA50: 50% Above SMA200: 63% Avg TSI: +1.0
DIA Dow Jones
LEAN BULLISH
57%
Above SMA50: 57% Above SMA200: 67% Avg TSI: +4.9
IWM Russell 2000
LEAN BULLISH
59%
Above SMA50: 62% Above SMA200: 63% Avg TSI: +3.4
IYT Transports
LEAN BULLISH
56%
Above SMA50: 49% Above SMA200: 79% Avg TSI: +3.1
XLB Materials
LEAN BULLISH
62%
Above SMA50: 73% Above SMA200: 69% Avg TSI: +4.8
XLC Communication
LEAN BEARISH
43%
Above SMA50: 43% Above SMA200: 39% Avg TSI: +1.6
XLE Energy
BULLISH
71%
Above SMA50: 33% Above SMA200: 81% Avg TSI: +9.0
XLF Financials
BULLISH
92%
Above SMA50: 92% Above SMA200: 82% Avg TSI: +17.5
XLI Industrials
BULLISH
67%
Above SMA50: 69% Above SMA200: 74% Avg TSI: +9.3
XLK Technology
LEAN BEARISH
41%
Above SMA50: 43% Above SMA200: 62% Avg TSI: -5.4
XLP Consumer Staples
BULLISH
76%
Above SMA50: 88% Above SMA200: 71% Avg TSI: +6.4
XLRE Real Estate
BULLISH
74%
Above SMA50: 81% Above SMA200: 81% Avg TSI: +8.1
XLU Utilities
BULLISH
74%
Above SMA50: 68% Above SMA200: 81% Avg TSI: +6.1
XLV Healthcare
BULLISH
81%
Above SMA50: 92% Above SMA200: 69% Avg TSI: +12.5
XLY Consumer Disc.
NEUTRAL
47%
Above SMA50: 72% Above SMA200: 55% Avg TSI: +0.6

Stock Weather Distribution

☀️ Sunny: 14
⛅ Partly Cloudy: 2155
☁️ Cloudy: 4058
🌧️ Rainy: 4727
⛈️ Stormy: 1177

Sector Weather

Sector Score Stocks Sunny Cloudy Stormy
Consumer Cyclical -0.8 429 1 165 34
Consumer Defensive -1.7 178 2 76 14
Real Estate -4.7 379 0 167 30
Communication Services -8.9 189 0 68 30
Healthcare -9.4 731 1 232 138
Industrials -10.2 598 0 201 121
Energy -10.6 240 0 83 41
Financial Services -11.6 8354 10 2771 499
Utilities -13.0 142 0 57 21
Technology -16.6 633 0 168 183
Basic Materials -20.7 258 0 70 66

IPO Pulse

Operating-company IPOs only · SPACs (Shell Companies) excluded · Score and bands match Stock Weather methodology

IPO Weather
🌧️
Rainy
Score: -26 (-100 to +100)
Pace -18
$ Vol -13
Trend -40
Cycle -71
Trailing 12mo
264
priced (ex-SPAC)
TTM $ raised
$201.4B
aggregate mcap at IPO
vs 30y history
30th pctile
TTM count rank
IPO Pace — % of 20yr Average 100% = on seasonal trend
Now: 44% of normal

For deep IPO analytics (30y volume, post-IPO performance, leaderboard) see /ipos.

SPAC Pulse

Shell-company IPOs (SPACs) shown separately · Meaningful data starts 2018 · Peak: 2021 (266 IPOs)

SPAC Seasonality cumulative SPAC IPOs by trading day
98 YTD
SPAC Volume by Year 2015—present

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms