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Market Weather

Breadth, seasonality & regime — updated 2026-10-29 00:00:00

Market Regime
Neutral
Dow Theory: CONFIRMED BULLISH
VIX
17.2
Normal
SPY TSI
+0.5
Lean Bull
QQQ TSI
-9.9
Lean Bear
DIA TSI
+7.9
Lean Bull
IWM TSI
-7.9
Lean Bear
Sector Strength
68%
Avg bullish

Stock Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
MSFT Microsoft Corporation +14 +8.2
GOOGN Alphabet Inc. Depository Shs Repr 1/20th Conv Pfd Registered Shs -22 +8.2
GOOGM Alphabet Inc. Depository Shs Repr 1/20th Conv Pfd Registered Shs -24 +3.8
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. -30 +6.5
GOOG Alphabet Inc. -30 +7.3
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. -13 +4.2
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited -28 +1.1
AVGO Broadcom Inc. -17 +25.2
SKHY SK hynix Inc. -9 +34.6
MU Micron Technology, Inc. -23 +14.9
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation -38 -13.5
AAPL Apple Inc. +13 -3.9
SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. -38 -16.5
META Meta Platforms, Inc. -52 -1.4
BRK-A Berkshire Hathaway Inc. +24 -2.6
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. +24 -2.1
WMT Walmart Inc. +21 -3.9
JPM-PJ JPMorgan Chase & Co. -32 -17.5
XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation +28 -1.5
JPM-PD JPMorgan Chase & Co. -12 -4.2

ETF Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF +9 +6.3
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF +9 +5.7
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF +8 +6.6
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF -12 +20.9
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 -31 +5.4
VUG Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF -19 +3.8
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF -21 +8.4
VTV Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF +28 +3.2
VO Vanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap ETF +20 +9.3
IEFA iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF -5 +21.8
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
BMOP BNY Mellon Municipal Opportunities ETF -3 -14.2
VCSH Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF -4 -9.1
XLE State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF +22 -1.3
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF -5 -4.9
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF -4 -1.4
FBND Fidelity Total Bond ETF +9 -3.9
EWJ iShares MSCI Japan ETF -31 -11.8
DVY iShares Select Dividend ETF +17 -1.5
SDY State Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF +24 -1.3
AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF -27 -11.3

Macro Conditions

ETF proxies for gold, dollar, copper, and long-end rates · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · commentary derived from current pace vs seasonal trend

Gold GLD SPDR Gold Shares
$368.57
-7.46% YTD
Gold below seasonal — risk-on rotation or strong dollar pressure Trend continuing weak over last 30d.
Dollar UUP DXY proxy
$29.04
+7.12% YTD
Dollar firmer than seasonal — supportive of US assets, pressures EM and commodities
Copper CPER United States Copper Index
$39.73
+13.58% YTD
Copper above trend — industrial demand healthy, China-growth proxy bullish
Long Bonds TLT Rate proxy — falls as yields rise
$81.49
-5.69% YTD
Long bonds soft vs seasonal — yields holding higher, no rate-cut catalyst yet

Presidential Cycle Seasonality

2026 — 2nd Term Year 2 (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year

SPY
YTD: +12.6%
QQQ
YTD: +16.8%
DIA
YTD: +8.3%
IWM
YTD: +14.2%

Sector ETF Seasonality

2026 — (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · all 11 sector SPDRs

XLK Technology
YTD: +30.8%
XLF Financials
YTD: +3.6%
XLE Energy
YTD: +50.5%
XLV Healthcare
YTD: +18.4%
XLI Industrials
YTD: +7.7%
XLY Discretionary
YTD: -1.9%
XLP Staples
YTD: +13.5%
XLU Utilities
YTD: -0.1%
XLRE Real Estate
YTD: +6.6%
XLB Materials
YTD: +15.4%
XLC Comm Services
YTD: -13.4%

Thematic ETF Seasonality

Sub-sector / industry plays beyond the GICS-11 · semis, airlines, biotech, energy E&P

Semiconductors SMH AI / chip demand proxy
YTD: +50.5%
Airlines JETS Travel / consumer recovery
YTD: -2.8%
Biotech XBI Equal-weighted small/mid biotech
YTD: +29.8%
Oil & Gas E&P XOP Energy / inflation play
YTD: +54.7%

Thematic ETF Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI · same metric as Index & Sector Breadth, applied to the thematic ETFs above

JETS Airlines
BEARISH
28%
Above SMA50: 33% Above SMA200: 35% Avg TSI: -10.7
SMH Semiconductors
BEARISH
28%
Above SMA50: 36% Above SMA200: 68% Avg TSI: -7.9
XBI Biotech
BEARISH
33%
Above SMA50: 38% Above SMA200: 45% Avg TSI: -8.5
XOP Oil & Gas E&P
BULLISH
78%
Above SMA50: 71% Above SMA200: 73% Avg TSI: +12.7

Index & Sector Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI (trend strength) — higher = broader participation

SPY S&P 500
BULLISH
66%
Above SMA50: 65% Above SMA200: 63% Avg TSI: +8.0
QQQ Nasdaq 100
NEUTRAL
54%
Above SMA50: 51% Above SMA200: 64% Avg TSI: +2.0
DIA Dow Jones
BULLISH
70%
Above SMA50: 70% Above SMA200: 67% Avg TSI: +9.7
IWM Russell 2000
LEAN BEARISH
43%
Above SMA50: 46% Above SMA200: 48% Avg TSI: -3.8
IYT Transports
LEAN BEARISH
36%
Above SMA50: 39% Above SMA200: 41% Avg TSI: -7.1
XLB Materials
BULLISH
71%
Above SMA50: 75% Above SMA200: 67% Avg TSI: +11.3
XLC Communication
LEAN BEARISH
36%
Above SMA50: 18% Above SMA200: 32% Avg TSI: -11.4
XLE Energy
BULLISH
90%
Above SMA50: 81% Above SMA200: 81% Avg TSI: +17.9
XLF Financials
LEAN BULLISH
59%
Above SMA50: 64% Above SMA200: 74% Avg TSI: +5.8
XLI Industrials
LEAN BULLISH
61%
Above SMA50: 64% Above SMA200: 53% Avg TSI: +5.6
XLK Technology
NEUTRAL
51%
Above SMA50: 53% Above SMA200: 71% Avg TSI: +1.8
XLP Consumer Staples
BULLISH
79%
Above SMA50: 74% Above SMA200: 65% Avg TSI: +15.8
XLRE Real Estate
NEUTRAL
53%
Above SMA50: 50% Above SMA200: 37% Avg TSI: +2.8
XLU Utilities
BULLISH
87%
Above SMA50: 87% Above SMA200: 52% Avg TSI: +18.8
XLV Healthcare
BULLISH
88%
Above SMA50: 82% Above SMA200: 88% Avg TSI: +18.2
XLY Consumer Disc.
BULLISH
66%
Above SMA50: 64% Above SMA200: 47% Avg TSI: +6.6

Stock Weather Distribution

☀️ Sunny: 15
⛅ Partly Cloudy: 2234
☁️ Cloudy: 5564
🌧️ Rainy: 3391
⛈️ Stormy: 1278

Sector Weather

Sector Score Stocks Sunny Cloudy Stormy
Energy -2.5 245 2 65 27
Consumer Cyclical -5.6 410 2 143 58
Financial Services -6.0 8760 4 4493 494
Healthcare -8.1 720 2 219 103
Utilities -9.8 145 0 34 34
Consumer Defensive -10.2 176 1 67 35
Technology -11.4 615 3 162 144
Industrials -13.1 578 0 151 127
Real Estate -18.7 364 0 111 95
Communication Services -19.1 194 0 60 57
Basic Materials -21.4 275 1 59 104

IPO Pulse

Operating-company IPOs only · SPACs (Shell Companies) excluded · Score and bands match Stock Weather methodology

IPO Weather
🌧️
Rainy
Score: -16 (-100 to +100)
Pace -17
$ Vol -13
Trend +6
Cycle -60
Trailing 12mo
282
priced (ex-SPAC)
TTM $ raised
$201.9B
aggregate mcap at IPO
vs 30y history
33th pctile
TTM count rank
IPO Pace — % of 20yr Average 100% = on seasonal trend
Now: 51% of normal

For deep IPO analytics (30y volume, post-IPO performance, leaderboard) see /ipos.

SPAC Pulse

Shell-company IPOs (SPACs) shown separately · Meaningful data starts 2018 · Peak: 2021 (265 IPOs)

SPAC Seasonality cumulative SPAC IPOs by trading day
121 YTD
SPAC Volume by Year 2015—present

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms