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Market Weather

Breadth, seasonality & regime — updated 2026-07-29 00:00:00

Market Regime
Risk-Off
Dow Theory: CONFIRMED BULLISH
VIX
20.7
Elevated
SPY TSI
-4.1
Lean Bear
QQQ TSI
-16.6
Bearish
DIA TSI
+5.7
Lean Bull
IWM TSI
-1.6
Lean Bear
Sector Strength
65%
Avg bullish

Stock Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
AAPL Apple Inc. +32 +5.1
GOOG Alphabet Inc. -39 +1.6
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. -39 +2.5
MSFT Microsoft Corporation +4 +5.3
SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp. -36 +2.0
LLY Eli Lilly and Company +24 +8.2
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. +5 +15.3
BRK-A Berkshire Hathaway Inc. +23 +44.9
JPM-PM JPMorgan Chase & Co. -32 +5.6
JPM-PJ JPMorgan Chase & Co. -24 +7.3
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation -17 -6.6
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. -44 -26.4
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited -39 -2.8
AVGO Broadcom Inc. -9 -2.3
TSLA Tesla, Inc. -54 -1.5
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. +27 -2.9
MU Micron Technology, Inc. -38 -8.5
JPM-PC JPMorgan Chase & Co -5 -1.9
JPM-PD JPMorgan Chase & Co. -29 -1.9
AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. -33 -18.4

ETF Weather Movers

Most Improved
Symbol Name Score Change
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF -24 +1.0
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF -36 +3.2
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF -24 +1.8
VO Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF -20 +3.9
VB Vanguard Small-Cap ETF +13 +1.9
IEFA iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF +14 +1.1
SPYM State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF -7 +2.7
AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF -34 +7.1
VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF +26 +4.0
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond ETF -30 +4.9
Most Deteriorated
Symbol Name Score Change
VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF -25 -18.8
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 -37 -1.6
BMOP BNY Mellon Municipal Opportunities ETF -36 -4.7
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF -8 -1.1
VTV Vanguard Value ETF +22 -4.5
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF -16 -2.3
IEMG iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF -36 -3.7
GLD SPDR Gold Shares -15 -2.3
VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF -34 -3.1
IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF -46 -3.1

Macro Conditions

ETF proxies for gold, dollar, copper, and long-end rates · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · commentary derived from current pace vs seasonal trend

Gold GLD SPDR Gold Shares
$371.00
-6.85% YTD
Gold below seasonal — risk-on rotation or strong dollar pressure
Dollar UUP DXY proxy
$28.42
+4.83% YTD
Dollar firmer than seasonal — supportive of US assets, pressures EM and commodities
Copper CPER United States Copper Index
$38.35
+9.63% YTD
Copper above trend — industrial demand healthy, China-growth proxy bullish Momentum positive over last 30d.
Long Bonds TLT Rate proxy — falls as yields rise
$82.85
-4.12% YTD
Long bonds soft vs seasonal — yields holding higher, no rate-cut catalyst yet Trend continuing weak over last 30d.

Presidential Cycle Seasonality

2026 — 2nd Term Year 2 (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year

SPY
YTD: +6.8%
QQQ
YTD: +8.1%
DIA
YTD: +6.7%
IWM
YTD: +16.0%

Sector ETF Seasonality

2026 — (Donald Trump, R) · 20-year average vs cycle pattern vs current year · all 11 sector SPDRs

XLK Technology
YTD: +15.4%
XLF Financials
YTD: +3.2%
XLE Energy
YTD: +28.5%
XLV Healthcare
YTD: +6.9%
XLI Industrials
YTD: +11.8%
XLY Discretionary
YTD: -5.7%
XLP Staples
YTD: +12.4%
XLU Utilities
YTD: +4.0%
XLRE Real Estate
YTD: +13.8%
XLB Materials
YTD: +12.2%
XLC Comm Services
YTD: -6.3%

Thematic ETF Seasonality

Sub-sector / industry plays beyond the GICS-11 · semis, airlines, biotech, energy E&P

Semiconductors SMH AI / chip demand proxy
YTD: +35.0%
Airlines JETS Travel / consumer recovery
YTD: +9.5%
Biotech XBI Equal-weighted small/mid biotech
YTD: +21.7%
Oil & Gas E&P XOP Energy / inflation play
YTD: +33.4%

Thematic ETF Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI · same metric as Index & Sector Breadth, applied to the thematic ETFs above

JETS Airlines
NEUTRAL
49%
Above SMA50: 57% Above SMA200: 62% Avg TSI: +1.6
SMH Semiconductors
BEARISH
0%
Above SMA50: 0% Above SMA200: 76% Avg TSI: -17.4
XBI Biotech
LEAN BULLISH
57%
Above SMA50: 55% Above SMA200: 60% Avg TSI: +2.3
XOP Oil & Gas E&P
BULLISH
67%
Above SMA50: 61% Above SMA200: 63% Avg TSI: +8.6

Index & Sector Breadth

% of holdings with bullish TSI (trend strength) — higher = broader participation

SPY S&P 500
BULLISH
66%
Above SMA50: 66% Above SMA200: 68% Avg TSI: +7.2
QQQ Nasdaq 100
NEUTRAL
47%
Above SMA50: 49% Above SMA200: 61% Avg TSI: +1.3
DIA Dow Jones
NEUTRAL
50%
Above SMA50: 47% Above SMA200: 57% Avg TSI: +5.1
IWM Russell 2000
LEAN BULLISH
58%
Above SMA50: 56% Above SMA200: 60% Avg TSI: +2.9
IYT Transports
NEUTRAL
49%
Above SMA50: 35% Above SMA200: 79% Avg TSI: +0.3
XLB Materials
LEAN BULLISH
62%
Above SMA50: 62% Above SMA200: 73% Avg TSI: +5.6
XLC Communication
LEAN BEARISH
43%
Above SMA50: 52% Above SMA200: 39% Avg TSI: +3.2
XLE Energy
BULLISH
71%
Above SMA50: 62% Above SMA200: 81% Avg TSI: +8.8
XLF Financials
BULLISH
88%
Above SMA50: 83% Above SMA200: 80% Avg TSI: +17.4
XLI Industrials
LEAN BULLISH
62%
Above SMA50: 54% Above SMA200: 65% Avg TSI: +8.2
XLK Technology
LEAN BEARISH
42%
Above SMA50: 38% Above SMA200: 58% Avg TSI: -5.4
XLP Consumer Staples
BULLISH
71%
Above SMA50: 85% Above SMA200: 65% Avg TSI: +8.2
XLRE Real Estate
BULLISH
77%
Above SMA50: 81% Above SMA200: 84% Avg TSI: +9.2
XLU Utilities
LEAN BULLISH
58%
Above SMA50: 45% Above SMA200: 71% Avg TSI: +4.2
XLV Healthcare
BULLISH
86%
Above SMA50: 90% Above SMA200: 75% Avg TSI: +14.0
XLY Consumer Disc.
LEAN BULLISH
57%
Above SMA50: 72% Above SMA200: 51% Avg TSI: +2.8

Stock Weather Distribution

☀️ Sunny: 26
⛅ Partly Cloudy: 2204
☁️ Cloudy: 3815
🌧️ Rainy: 4542
⛈️ Stormy: 1528

Sector Weather

Sector Score Stocks Sunny Cloudy Stormy
Consumer Defensive +1.1 181 2 74 13
Consumer Cyclical -2.2 420 4 159 34
Real Estate -3.5 383 0 158 39
Communication Services -7.0 193 0 65 26
Energy -10.1 241 0 79 50
Healthcare -10.7 728 5 214 161
Financial Services -12.5 8350 12 2633 730
Industrials -15.4 587 2 181 154
Utilities -15.7 144 0 51 28
Technology -17.5 621 1 129 217
Basic Materials -23.4 267 0 72 76

IPO Pulse

Operating-company IPOs only · SPACs (Shell Companies) excluded · Score and bands match Stock Weather methodology

IPO Weather
🌧️
Rainy
Score: -26 (-100 to +100)
Pace -18
$ Vol -13
Trend -40
Cycle -71
Trailing 12mo
264
priced (ex-SPAC)
TTM $ raised
$201.4B
aggregate mcap at IPO
vs 30y history
30th pctile
TTM count rank
IPO Pace — % of 20yr Average 100% = on seasonal trend
Now: 44% of normal

For deep IPO analytics (30y volume, post-IPO performance, leaderboard) see /ipos.

SPAC Pulse

Shell-company IPOs (SPACs) shown separately · Meaningful data starts 2018 · Peak: 2021 (266 IPOs)

SPAC Seasonality cumulative SPAC IPOs by trading day
98 YTD
SPAC Volume by Year 2015—present

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms