LLY NYSE
Eli Lilly and Company
1W: +3.1%
1M: +8.1%
3M: +4.8%
YTD: +18.6%
1Y: +56.0%
3Y: +120.0%
5Y: +457.4%
$1,281.91
+2.77 (+0.22%)
After Hours: $1283.76 (+1.85, +0.14%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.4%
$1162
$1218
$1273
$1329
$1385
Credit Risk of going bust: lower than 84% of companies Debt: 4.4% of company value Bonds: $1.28B held by 465 funds, 44 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the safest four tenths, about 1 in 3,500 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $5.05 (down 99.6%), Eli Lilly and Company would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $54.91B against a stock market value of $1.20T.
Distance to default 10.86 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $30.98B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 34.6%; Altman Z 8.56. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $5.05 (down 99.6%), Eli Lilly and Company would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $54.91B against a stock market value of $1.20T.
Distance to default 10.86 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $30.98B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 34.6%; Altman Z 8.56. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Oct Typical
☀️
Sunny
+14.7% YTD avg
Midterm Year
☀️
Sunny
+19.8% YTD avg
2026 Now
☀️
Sunny
Above typical
20yr Avg YTD
+14.7%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
+19.8%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
+18.9%
Above 20yr avg
Typical Vol
34%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛅
+1.3%
Midterm
🌧️
-1.5%
50% win
26% vol
Feb
20yr
☁️
+2.6%
Midterm
☁️
-0.5%
45% win
26% vol
Mar
20yr
⛅
+4.0%
Midterm
⛅
+2.5%
80% win
31% vol
Apr
20yr
☀️
+5.5%
Midterm
⛅
+2.0%
60% win
27% vol
May
20yr
☀️
+7.5%
Midterm
⛅
+4.8%
65% win
24% vol
Jun
20yr
☀️
+11.3%
Midterm
☀️
+8.2%
75% win
27% vol
Jul
20yr
⛅
+11.9%
Midterm
☀️
+12.7%
60% win
22% vol
Aug
20yr
☀️
+14.4%
Midterm
☀️
+13.0%
50% win
29% vol
Sep
20yr
☁️
+15.0%
Midterm
☀️
+17.7%
50% win
23% vol
Oct
20yr
🌫️
+14.7%
Midterm
☀️
+19.9%
52% win
34% vol
Now:
+10.8%
Nov
20yr
☀️
+17.0%
Midterm
☀️
+22.7%
70% win
30% vol
Dec
20yr
☀️
+3.7%
Midterm
☁️
-0.3%
60% win
26% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: +18.9%