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Economic Surprises › Japan
Japan +5.5 ▲ vs 1w ago (+3.6)
Japan economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+5.5
1 Week Ago
+3.6
Releases (90d)
203
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nikkei 225 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (203 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-05-20 Balance of Trade 301.9 -29.7 +4.457 High +319.16
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 1.5 2.3 +6.405 Low +96.32
2026-04-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.9 51.2 +3.397 Medium +86.90
2026-04-09 Consumer Confidence 33.3 38.0 -2.969 High -82.44
2026-05-21 S&P Global Services PMI 50.0 50.7 -1.246 Medium -60.88
2026-04-14 Machinery Orders MoM 13.6 -1.1 +2.348 Medium +48.79
2026-05-21 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.4 1.7 +0.862 Medium +42.13
2026-05-12 Coincident Index 116.5 112.0 +1.981 Low +39.31
2026-05-14 Producer Price Index MoM 2.3 0.7 -1.818 Low -37.79
2026-04-23 S&P Global Services PMI 51.2 52.0 -1.388 Medium -35.52
2026-03-09 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 1.3 0.2 +3.711 Medium +33.56
2026-04-27 Leading Index MoM 1.3 0.3 +2.351 Low +32.99
2026-05-14 Producer Price Index YoY 4.9 3.0 -1.559 Low -32.40
2026-05-11 Household Spending MoM -1.3 0.6 -0.820 Medium -31.80
2026-02-26 Retail Sales YoY 1.8 -0.4 +4.448 Medium +31.20
2026-04-30 Consumer Confidence 32.2 33.1 -0.653 High -29.44
2026-05-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.1 51.8 -1.204 Low -29.42
2026-03-24 S&P Global Services PMI 52.8 51.5 +2.278 Medium +29.14
2026-04-23 CPI YoY 1.8 1.7 -1.083 Medium -27.71
2026-04-27 CB Leading Index 113.3 112.4 +1.928 Low +27.05
2026-04-29 Retail Sales YoY 1.7 0.8 +0.910 Medium +26.74
2026-04-27 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.901 Medium -25.28
2026-04-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.4 51.4 +1.734 Low +22.18
2026-05-20 Exports YoY 14.8 9.3 +0.463 Medium +22.11
2026-05-21 Inflation Rate YoY 1.4 1.8 +0.294 High +21.53
2026-03-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.4 52.8 -1.246 Medium -15.94
2026-05-18 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.5 0.4 +0.223 High +15.26
2026-04-29 Industrial Production MoM -0.5 1.1 -0.518 Medium -15.21
2026-03-30 Retail Sales YoY -0.2 0.8 -1.011 Medium -14.85
2026-05-12 Bank Lending YoY 5.4 4.6 +0.732 Low +14.52
2026-03-17 Exports YoY 4.2 1.6 +1.273 Medium +13.85
2026-03-04 Consumer Confidence 40.0 38.2 +1.131 High +13.67
2026-03-23 CPI YoY 1.6 1.7 +1.083 Medium +13.54
2026-03-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.5 51.3 +2.084 Low +13.33
2026-03-30 Unemployment Rate 2.6 2.7 +0.868 Medium +12.75
2026-05-18 GDP External Demand QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.525 Low +11.96
2026-03-31 Construction Orders YoY 42.7 3.0 +1.543 Low +11.60
2026-05-18 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.5 0.4 +0.169 High +11.53
2026-05-19 Capacity Utilization -1.2 0.3 -0.476 Low -11.10
2026-05-21 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.5 +0.412 Low +10.06
2026-03-09 Household Spending MoM -2.5 0.8 -1.068 Medium -9.66
2026-05-21 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 1.9 2.4 +0.393 Low +9.60
2026-03-08 Current Account 3.15 1010.0 -1.076 Medium -9.51
2026-05-18 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.1 1.7 +0.202 Medium +9.20
2026-05-12 Current Account 4682.0 3879.0 +0.224 Medium +8.87
2026-04-03 S&P Global Services PMI 53.4 52.8 +1.025 Low +8.26
2026-04-27 Leading Economic Index 113.3 112.4 +0.565 Low +7.93
2026-04-08 Eco Watchers Survey Current 42.2 48.0 -0.872 Low -7.89
2026-05-11 Household Spending YoY -2.9 -1.3 -0.197 Medium -7.63
2026-05-18 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.328 Low +7.48
2026-05-18 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.325 Low +7.41
2026-04-07 Coincident Index 116.3 118.3 -0.834 Low -7.37
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index MoM -0.1 0.1 +1.591 Low +7.36
2026-04-14 Machinery Orders YoY 24.7 8.5 +0.354 Medium +7.36
2026-03-17 Balance of Trade 57.3 -483.2 +0.447 High +7.29
2026-05-18 GDP Growth Annualized 2.1 1.7 +0.157 Medium +7.17
2026-03-02 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.901 Medium -6.93
2026-04-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.0 52.5 +0.849 Low +6.84
2026-02-26 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.881 Low +6.60
2026-02-26 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.881 Low +6.60
2026-04-23 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.2 -0.515 Low -6.59
2026-02-25 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.881 Low +6.45
2026-03-23 Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 0.2 +1.030 Low +6.44
2026-05-08 S&P Global Services PMI 51.0 51.2 -0.353 Low -6.38
2026-03-30 CPI YoY 2.3 2.2 -0.837 Low -6.15
2026-05-08 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.2 52.4 -0.340 Low -6.15
2026-02-26 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.748 Low +6.13
2026-02-26 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.748 Low +6.13
2026-04-08 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 38.7 49.2 -0.678 Low -6.13
2026-05-13 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 39.4 36.0 +0.300 Low +6.09
2026-02-25 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.748 Low +5.99
2026-03-09 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.3 0.1 +1.313 Low +5.94
2026-04-30 Core CPI YoY 1.5 1.8 +0.388 Low +5.84
2026-04-21 Balance of Trade 667.0 1106.0 -0.158 High -5.81
2026-03-09 CB Leading Index 112.4 113.0 -1.279 Low -5.78
2026-03-08 CB Leading Index 112.4 113.0 -1.279 Low -5.65
2026-05-18 GDP Price Index YoY 3.4 3.1 -0.238 Low -5.43
2026-04-08 Overtime Pay YoY 3.3 1.3 +0.599 Low +5.42
2026-04-07 Overtime Pay YoY 3.3 1.3 +0.599 Low +5.30
2026-03-03 Capital Expenditure YoY 6.5 3.0 +0.658 Medium +5.18
2026-03-02 Capital Expenditure YoY 6.5 3.0 +0.658 Medium +5.06
2026-03-30 Jobs/applications ratio 1.19 1.18 +0.665 Low +4.88
2026-04-15 Reuters Tankan Index 7.0 15.0 -0.438 Low -4.65
2026-04-15 Reuters Tankan Index 7.0 15.0 -0.438 Low -4.65
2026-03-09 Coincident Index 116.8 114.5 +0.991 Low +4.48
2026-04-06 Household Spending YoY -1.8 -0.7 -0.251 Medium -4.34
2026-02-26 CPI YoY 1.6 1.5 -1.228 Low -4.31
2026-03-25 CB Leading Index 112.1 112.4 -0.643 Low -4.21
2026-05-12 CB Leading Index 114.5 114.4 +0.210 Low +4.18
2026-03-08 Overtime Pay YoY 3.3 1.0 +0.896 Low +3.96
2026-04-21 Imports YoY 10.9 7.1 +0.318 Low +3.88
2026-03-23 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.7 +0.287 Medium +3.59
2026-03-03 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.901 Low -3.55
2026-04-09 Bank Lending YoY 4.8 4.4 +0.383 Low +3.54
2026-03-04 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +3.52
2026-03-04 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +3.52
2026-05-15 Machine Tool Orders YoY 45.1 28.1 +0.163 Low +3.46
2026-03-03 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +3.44
2026-05-07 Overtime Pay YoY 1.9 3.5 -0.178 Low -3.15
2026-03-26 Coincident Index 117.9 116.8 +0.464 Low +3.11
2026-03-25 Coincident Index 117.9 116.8 +0.464 Low +3.04
2026-04-20 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.4 9.6 -0.252 Low -3.01
2026-03-25 Coincident Indicator MoM 3.4 2.5 +0.458 Low +3.00
2026-05-19 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.2 -0.4 +0.121 Low +2.83
2026-05-13 Eco Watchers Survey Current 40.8 41.6 -0.139 Low -2.82
2026-03-31 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index 36.0 33.0 +0.372 Low +2.80
2026-05-20 Machinery Orders YoY 5.9 4.5 +0.058 Medium +2.76
2026-05-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 55.1 54.9 +0.171 Low +2.64
2026-03-03 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.19 -0.659 Low -2.59
2026-03-02 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.19 -0.659 Low -2.54
2026-04-30 Construction Orders YoY -14.4 33.0 -0.167 Low -2.52
2026-05-20 Imports YoY 9.7 8.3 +0.100 Low +2.39
2026-03-31 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 17.0 16.0 +0.103 High +2.32
2026-03-30 Industrial Production YoY 0.3 1.0 -0.314 Low -2.30
2026-03-18 Reuters Tankan Index 18.0 12.0 +0.410 Low +2.28
2026-03-09 Leading Economic Index 112.4 113.2 -0.499 Low -2.26
2026-02-26 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.636 Low -2.23
2026-02-26 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.636 Low -2.23
2026-04-27 Coincident Indicator MoM -1.8 -1.6 -0.159 Low -2.23
2026-02-25 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.636 Low -2.18
2026-04-07 Current Account 3933.0 3549.0 +0.117 Medium +2.07
2026-03-09 Household Spending YoY -1.0 2.5 -0.224 Medium -2.02
2026-04-29 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 3.3 -0.136 Low -2.00
2026-03-19 Industrial Production MoM 4.3 2.2 +0.340 Low +1.94
2026-04-09 Producer Price Index YoY 2.6 2.4 -0.205 Low -1.90
2026-04-06 Household Spending MoM 1.5 2.6 -0.110 Medium -1.89
2026-04-09 Machine Tool Orders YoY 28.1 16.0 +0.203 Low +1.88
2026-03-31 Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook 14.0 13.0 +0.246 Low +1.85
2026-02-26 Leading Economic Index 111.0 110.2 +0.513 Low +1.80
2026-03-19 Industrial Production YoY 0.7 2.3 -0.312 Low -1.78
2026-05-07 Average Cash Earnings YoY 2.7 3.2 -0.099 Low -1.76
2026-03-17 Balance of Trade -0.37 -0.62 +0.161 Medium +1.75
2026-03-31 Tankan Large All Industry Capex 3.3 13.0 -0.229 Low -1.72
2026-05-19 Industrial Production MoM -0.4 -0.5 +0.071 Low +1.66
2026-04-14 Industrial Production YoY 0.4 0.3 +0.149 Low +1.55
2026-03-17 Tertiary Industry Index MoM 1.7 0.8 +0.273 Low +1.48
2026-02-26 Industrial Production MoM 2.2 5.3 -0.208 Medium -1.46
2026-02-26 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 1.2 +0.411 Low +1.44
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.4 +0.183 Low +1.41
2026-05-20 Machinery Orders MoM -9.4 -8.1 -0.028 Medium -1.35
2026-05-06 Monetary Base YoY -11.3 -10.5 -0.077 Low -1.34
2026-04-29 Retail Sales MoM 1.3 0.8 +0.087 Low +1.27
2026-03-26 Leading Economic Index 112.1 112.4 -0.188 Low -1.26
2026-03-30 Retail Sales MoM -2.0 -0.9 -0.170 Low -1.25
2026-04-07 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.3 2.7 +0.141 Low +1.25
2026-03-25 Leading Economic Index 112.1 112.4 -0.188 Low -1.23
2026-04-21 Exports YoY 11.7 11.0 +0.050 Medium +1.22
2026-05-12 Leading Economic Index 114.5 114.6 -0.062 Low -1.22
2026-04-14 Capacity Utilization -0.1 1.0 -0.105 Low -1.09
2026-03-30 Core CPI YoY 1.7 1.8 +0.129 Low +0.95
2026-03-31 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 29.0 28.0 +0.124 Low +0.93
2026-03-19 Capacity Utilization 2.9 1.1 +0.156 Low +0.89
2026-03-25 Leading Index MoM 1.7 2.1 -0.134 Low -0.88
2026-02-26 Retail Sales MoM 4.1 1.5 +0.240 Low +0.84
2026-03-18 Machinery Orders MoM -5.5 -9.6 +0.075 Medium +0.84
2026-04-09 Producer Price Index MoM 0.8 0.9 +0.088 Low +0.82
2026-02-27 Housing Starts YoY -0.4 -1.6 +0.097 Medium +0.70
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.0 52.8 +0.178 Low +0.68
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.166 Low +0.67
2026-03-18 Machinery Orders YoY 13.7 10.5 +0.057 Medium +0.63
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.9 48.0 +0.135 Low +0.61
2026-03-09 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.0 2.5 +0.127 Low +0.58
2026-04-01 Monetary Base YoY -11.6 -10.8 -0.075 Low -0.58
2026-04-07 Leading Economic Index 112.4 112.3 +0.063 Low +0.56
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index YoY 2.0 2.1 +0.117 Low +0.54
2026-03-09 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ 1.3 1.1 +0.118 Low +0.53
2026-03-09 GDP Growth Annualized 1.3 1.2 +0.056 Medium +0.50
2026-03-23 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 2.5 2.4 -0.079 Low -0.49
2026-02-26 Core CPI YoY 1.8 1.7 -0.137 Low -0.48
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.9 48.2 +0.105 Low +0.47
2026-05-19 Industrial Production YoY 2.4 2.3 +0.019 Low +0.45
2026-03-08 Bank Lending YoY 4.5 4.4 +0.096 Low +0.42
2026-03-17 Imports YoY 10.2 11.5 -0.067 Low -0.37
2026-03-03 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.083 Low -0.33
2026-03-02 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.083 Low -0.32
2026-03-02 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.083 Low -0.32
2026-02-26 Coincident Index 114.3 114.5 -0.086 Low -0.30
2026-03-11 BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ 3.8 5.5 -0.062 Low -0.29
2026-02-27 Construction Orders YoY 5.7 12.0 -0.061 Low -0.22
2026-03-09 Current Account 941.6 960.0 -0.021 Medium -0.19
2026-04-14 Industrial Production MoM -2.0 -2.1 +0.017 Low +0.18
2026-02-26 CPI 1.8 1.9 +0.048 Low +0.17
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 50.0 50.4 -0.025 Low -0.11
2026-04-30 Housing Starts YoY -29.3 -28.5 -0.004 Medium -0.11
2026-03-31 Housing Starts YoY -4.9 -4.7 -0.006 Medium -0.08
2026-03-10 Machine Tool Orders YoY 24.2 25.3 -0.012 Low -0.05
2026-03-03 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-09 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-09 GDP Price Index YoY 3.4 3.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-19 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75 0.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.3 1.3 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-03-30 Industrial Production MoM -2.1 -2.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-31 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index 7.0 7.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-07 CB Leading Index 112.4 112.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-23 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 1.8 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.5 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-04-23 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-27 Coincident Index 116.3 116.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-27 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.18 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-28 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75 0.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-20 Reuters Tankan Index 8.0 8.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms