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BCAX NASDAQ

Bicara Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
1W: +0.9% 1M: -11.8% 3M: +34.6% YTD: +27.2% 1Y: +38.6%
$21.68
+0.84 (+4.03%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±5.8%
$18 $19 $20 $21 $23
NASDAQ · Healthcare · Biotechnology · Alpha Radar Sell · Power 37 · $1.2B mcap · 35M float · 1.64% daily turnover · Short 60% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NO EDGE
34.6 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: 1181.4%
Cost Advantage
33
Intangibles
25
Switching Cost
60
Network Effect
18
Scale
27
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. BCAX has No discernible competitive edge (34.6/100). The business operates without significant structural advantages. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. ROIC of 1181.4% confirms the company is generating returns well above its cost of capital — a hallmark of durable competitive advantages.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$18
Low
$28
Avg Target
$37
High
Based on 2 analysts since May 11, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 5Hold: 2Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$32.33
Analysts3
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-05-12 Morgan Stanley $35 $37 +2 +65.3% $22.38
2026-05-12 Goldman Sachs $14 $18 +4 -21.5% $22.92
2026-05-10 Guggenheim Initiated $42 +86.0% $22.58
2026-02-11 Goldman Sachs Richard Law Initiated $14 -5.4% $14.80
2026-01-08 BTIG Initiated $28 +63.1% $17.17
2025-12-17 Mizuho Securities Joseph Catanzaro Initiated $18 +0.1% $17.98
2025-08-22 H.C. Wainwright Robert Burns Initiated $40 +237.8% $11.84
2025-05-23 Wells Fargo Eva Fortea Verdejo Initiated $8 -13.7% $9.27
2025-03-27 Stifel Nicolaus Initiated $48 +258.2% $13.40
2024-10-08 Morgan Stanley Judah Frommer Initiated $35 +43.1% $24.45

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C+
May 22, 2026
DCF
3
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
4
P/E
1
P/B
3
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. BCAX receives an overall rating of C+. Strongest factors: D/E (4/5). Areas of concern: ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), P/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-05-06 C C+
2026-04-30 C+ C
2026-04-24 C C+
2026-04-01 C+ C
2026-02-06 B- C+
2026-02-05 C+ B-
2026-02-02 B- C+

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

Grade A+
Profitability
Balance Sheet
85
Earnings Quality
54
Growth
Value
38
Momentum
Safety
100
Cash Flow

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
24.32
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score
-1.76
Bankruptcy prob: 14.6%
Moderate
Credit Rating
A+
Score: 75.6/100
Trend: Stable
Earnings Quality
OCF/NI: 0.74x
Accruals: -8.2%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. BCAX scores 24.32, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. BCAX scores 1/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. BCAX's implied 14.6% bankruptcy probability is elevated and warrants attention to the balance sheet. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. BCAX receives an estimated rating of A+ (score: 75.6/100), with a stable trend.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-8.37x
PEG
0.18x
P/S
0.00x
P/B
2.56x
P/FCF
-10.36x
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
-4.69x
EV/Revenue
EV/EBIT
-4.68x
EV/FCF
-6.82x
Earnings Yield
-13.03%
FCF Yield
-9.65%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. BCAX currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
1.001
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.926
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.000
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.120
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-35.2%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. BCAX's ROE of -35.2% is driven by A tax burden ratio of 1.00 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
Price/Value
Margin of Safety
Premium
Assessment
Overvalued

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 424 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$21.68
Median 1Y
$14.88
5th Pctile
$3.82
95th Pctile
$57.73
Ann. Volatility
81.6%
Analyst Target
$32.33
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
Claire Mazumdar, Ph.D.
Chief Executive Officer
$625,000 $— $927,688
Ryan Cohlhepp, Pharm.D.
President and Chief Operating Officer
$588,000 $— $858,400
David Raben, M.D.
Chief Medical Officer
$525,000 $— $709,164

CEO Pay Ratio

6063:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $927,688
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $153
Employees: 200,000

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
200,000
0.0% YoY
Revenue / Employee
Profit / Employee
$-690
NI: $-137,950,000
SGA / Employee
$153
Avg labor cost proxy
R&D / Employee
$625
Innovation spend

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
ROE -8.0% -7.8% -15.3% -20.9% -34.2% -30.9% -35.2% -35.22%
ROA -7.5% -6.8% -13.2% -18.0% -30.3% -27.6% -31.5% -31.46%
ROIC 1.4% -12.9% -24.2% -33.0% -38.4% 10.6% 11.8% 11.81%
ROCE -9.4% -8.6% -16.2% -22.0% -24.8% -37.6% -42.2% -42.20%
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Net Margin
EBITDA Margin
FCF Margin
OCF Margin
ROIC Economic snapshot only -34.11%
Cash ROA snapshot only -26.97%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio -79.28 -24.67 -9.43 -4.93 -7.09 -6.73 -7.68 -8.368
P/S Ratio 0.000
P/B Ratio 6.34 1.93 1.44 1.03 1.75 2.31 3.01 2.561
P/FCF -80.42 -20.05 -9.41 -5.02 -7.62 -8.66 -10.36 -10.359
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA -56.08 -9.73 -2.48 -0.15 -2.73 -3.41 -4.69 -4.685
EV/Revenue
EV/EBIT -56.04 -9.72 -2.48 -0.15 -2.72 -3.41 -4.68 -4.683
EV/FCF -67.09 -9.71 -2.93 -0.18 -3.30 -4.81 -6.82 -6.816
Earnings Yield -1.3% -4.1% -10.6% -20.3% -14.1% -14.9% -13.0% -13.03%
FCF Yield -1.2% -5.0% -10.6% -19.9% -13.1% -11.5% -9.7% -9.65%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.184
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 3.008
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio 15.32 27.93 27.93 27.93 27.93 14.58 14.58 14.579
Quick Ratio 15.32 27.93 27.93 27.93 27.93 14.58 14.58 14.579
Debt/Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.004
Net Debt/Equity -1.05 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 -0.99 -1.03 -1.03 -1.029
Debt/Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.004
Debt/EBITDA -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.010
Net Debt/EBITDA 11.15 10.35 5.49 4.04 3.58 2.73 2.44 2.436
Interest Coverage
Equity Multiplier 1.07 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.07 1.07 1.074
Cash Ratio snapshot only 14.329
Cash to Debt snapshot only 242.574
FCF to Debt snapshot only -68.173
Defensive Interval snapshot only 869.8 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Inventory Turnover
Receivables Turnover
Payables Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
DSO
DIO
DPO
Cash Conversion Cycle
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.000
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.000
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue
Net Income -6.0% -2.6% -1.1% -1.09%
EPS -5.9% -2.5% -87.4% -87.42%
FCF -5.6% -1.3% -54.6% -54.59%
EBITDA -5.6% -2.2% -90.5% -90.55%
Op. Income -5.8% -2.3% -95.5% -95.45%
OCF Growth snapshot only -54.24%
Asset Growth snapshot only -24.28%
Equity Growth snapshot only -18.38%
Debt Growth snapshot only 1.32%
Shares Change snapshot only 11.50%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability
Earnings Stability
Margin Stability
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence
Earnings Smoothness
ROE Trend
Gross Margin Trend
FCF Margin Trend
Sustainable Growth Rate
Internal Growth Rate
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.99 1.23 1.00 0.98 0.93 0.77 0.74 0.739
FCF/OCF 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.003
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.741
CapEx/Revenue
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 3.953
Accruals Ratio -0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.00 -0.02 -0.06 -0.08 -0.082
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.183
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -341.871
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio
FCF Payout Ratio
Total Payout Ratio
Div. Increase Streak
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield -24.1% -35.1% -47.0% -65.9% -0.0% -3.5% -16.2% -16.16%
Total Shareholder Return -24.1% -35.1% -47.0% -65.9% -0.0% -3.5% -16.2% -16.16%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.85 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.926
EBIT Margin
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Equity Multiplier 1.07 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.120
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.32 $-0.71 $-1.38 $-1.88 $-2.23 $-2.50 $-2.59 $-2.59
Book Value/Share $4.02 $9.04 $9.03 $9.02 $9.01 $7.28 $6.61 $8.46
Tangible Book/Share $4.02 $9.04 $9.03 $9.02 $9.01 $7.28 $6.61 $6.61
Revenue/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
FCF/Share $-0.32 $-0.87 $-1.38 $-1.85 $-2.07 $-1.94 $-1.92 $-1.92
OCF/Share $-0.32 $-0.87 $-1.38 $-1.85 $-2.07 $-1.94 $-1.91 $-1.91
Cash/Share $4.24 $9.00 $8.99 $8.98 $8.98 $7.52 $6.83 $8.89
EBITDA/Share $-0.38 $-0.87 $-1.63 $-2.22 $-2.50 $-2.74 $-2.79 $-2.79
Debt/Share $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03
Net Debt/Share $-4.22 $-8.98 $-8.98 $-8.97 $-8.96 $-7.49 $-6.80 $-6.80
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Altman Z-Score 24.323
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 46.261
Piotroski F-Score 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -1.763
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -42.94%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $6.46
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only A+
Credit Score 76.30 76.29 76.25 73.88 76.04 76.15 75.61 75.608
Credit Grade snapshot only 5
Credit Trend snapshot only -0.641
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 125.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 76
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 70

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms