BRCB NASDAQ
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock
1W: -8.1%
1M: -51.1%
3M: -49.4%
YTD: -70.5%
$6.81
+0.23 (+3.50%)
Weekly Expected Move ±15.7%
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Overview
News
Chart
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Financials
Income Statement
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Earnings
Dividends
Analysis
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Institutions
ETF Exposure
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Edge Score
Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.
WEAK EDGE
43.5 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Cost Advantage
30
Intangibles
32
Switching Cost
70
Network Effect
35
Scale
45
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40.
BRCB shows a Weak competitive edge (43.5/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure.
The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs.
ROIC of 0.2% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.
Analyst Insights
Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.
Analyst Price Targets
$15
Low
$15
Avg Target
$15
High
Based on 1 analyst since May 12, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 4Hold: 0Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
Price Target Change History
| Date | Firm | Analyst | Old | New | Change | Upside @ Call | Stock@Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | D.A. Davidson | — | $16 | $15 | -1 | +36.7% | $10.97 |
| 2026-05-05 | D.A. Davidson | — | Initiated | $16 | — | +37.6% | $11.63 |
| 2026-04-21 | Morgan Stanley | Brian Harbour | $28 | $22 | -6 | +50.8% | $14.59 |
| 2026-04-21 | Raymond James | Brian Vaccaro | $26 | $20 | -6 | +38.1% | $14.48 |
| 2025-10-07 | Raymond James | — | Initiated | $26 | — | +17.4% | $22.14 |
| 2025-10-07 | Jefferies | — | Initiated | $30 | — | +35.5% | $22.14 |
| 2025-10-07 | Robert W. Baird | David Tarantino | Initiated | $32 | — | +44.5% | $22.14 |
| 2025-10-07 | Morgan Stanley | — | Initiated | $28 | — | +26.5% | $22.14 |
| 2025-10-07 | Stifel Nicolaus | Chris O'Cull | Initiated | $27 | — | +22.0% | $22.14 |
Financial Rating
Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5.
BRCB receives an overall rating of C-.
Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), ROE (2/5), D/E (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
| Date | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | D+ | C- |
| 2026-05-18 | C- | D+ |
| 2026-05-15 | C | C- |
| 2026-05-12 | D+ | C |
| 2026-03-09 | C- | D+ |
| 2026-03-03 | D+ | C- |
InsiderStreet Scorecard
Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.
★
★
★
★
★
22
Grade D
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores.
BRCB scores highest in Earnings Quality (98/100) and lowest in Profitability (12/100).
A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.
Risk & Quality Signals
Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.
Altman Z-Score
1.00
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
✓
✓
✗
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✗
Beneish M-Score
—
—
Ohlson O-Score
-5.62
Bankruptcy prob: 0.4%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
CCC
Score: 12.2/100
Earnings Quality
100/100
OCF/NI: 1.76x
Accruals: -0.1%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor.
BRCB scores 1.00, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81).
Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk.
The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point.
BRCB scores 4/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others.
The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation.
BRCB's implied 0.4% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory.
Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
BRCB receives an estimated rating of CCC (score: 12.2/100).
The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better).
BRCB's score of 100/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.
Valuation
Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.
P/E
92.68x
PEG
0.04x
P/S
0.57x
P/B
2.53x
P/FCF
-6.39x
P/OCF
404.47x
EV/EBITDA
139.23x
EV/Revenue
2.26x
EV/EBIT
-50.20x
EV/FCF
-10.21x
Earnings Yield
0.14%
FCF Yield
-15.65%
Shareholder Yield
107.01%
Graham Number
$1.03
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay.
At 92.7x earnings, BRCB is priced for high growth expectations.
Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $1.03 per share, 562% below the current price.
DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)
The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.
Tax Burden
-0.026
NI / EBT
Interest Burden
1.722
EBT / EBIT
EBIT Margin
-0.045
EBIT / Rev
Asset Turnover
0.477
Rev / Assets
Equity Multiplier
7.366
Assets / Equity
ROE
0.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability.
BRCB's ROE of 0.7% is driven by
financial leverage (equity multiplier: 7.37x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance.
A tax burden ratio of -0.03 suggests the company retains less than 60% of pre-tax earnings after taxes.
Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation
Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.
Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$0.15
Price/Value
83.95x
Margin of Safety
-8294.56%
Premium
8294.56%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with BRCB's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR — what the company actually delivered, not what analysts hope for.
BRCB trades at a 8295% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $0.15, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support.
The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 92.7x.
Profitability Trends
Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.
Leverage & Solvency Trends
Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.
Efficiency & Working Capital Trends
Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.
Earnings Stability
R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.
Monte Carlo Price Simulation
Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 175 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.
Current Price
$6.81
Median 1Y
$0.68
5th Pctile
$0.20
95th Pctile
$2.30
Ann. Volatility
75.9%
Analyst Target
$18.25
25th–75th percentile
5th–95th percentile
Median path
Historical
Analyst target
Executive Compensation
C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.
C-Suite Compensation
| Executive | Salary | Stock | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Mark Davis Chief Executive Officer |
$621,370 | $3,750,000 | $20,897,082 |
Rodd Booth Financial ancial Officer |
$307,123 | $750,000 | $2,106,129 |
Sam Seiberling Legal Legal Officer |
$285,753 | $771,385 | $2,003,328 |
CEO Pay Ratio
1416:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $20,897,082
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $14,759
Employees: 2,800
C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)
CEO Compensation Mix
Workforce & Productivity
Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.
Employees
2,800
Revenue / Employee
$71,543
Rev: $200,321,000
Profit / Employee
$-5,870
NI: $-16,436,999
SGA / Employee
$14,759
Avg labor cost proxy
Scaling Efficiency
All Ratios & Metrics
Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.
Profitability
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 0.70% | |
| ROA | -0.3% | -0.0% | 0.1% | 0.09% | |
| ROIC | -2.8% | -1.5% | 0.2% | 0.20% | |
| ROCE | -7.4% | -3.7% | -2.4% | -2.42% | |
| Gross Margin | 29.7% | 29.5% | 23.5% | 23.45% | |
| Operating Margin | -12.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.91% | |
| Net Margin | -1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.68% | |
| EBITDA Margin | -19.9% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 13.14% | |
| FCF Margin | -37.4% | -24.8% | -22.1% | -22.11% | |
| OCF Margin | -22.0% | -5.9% | 0.3% | 0.35% | |
| ROIC Economic | snapshot only | 0.17% | |||
| Cash ROA | snapshot only | 0.17% | |||
| Cash ROIC | snapshot only | 0.31% | |||
| CROIC | snapshot only | -19.58% | |||
| NOPAT Margin | snapshot only | 0.22% | |||
| Pretax Margin | snapshot only | -7.75% | |||
| R&D / Revenue | snapshot only | 0.00% | |||
| SGA / Revenue | snapshot only | 22.27% | |||
| SBC / Revenue | snapshot only | 0.00% | |||
Valuation
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | -496.24 | -6506.09 | 713.54 | 92.677 | |
| P/S Ratio | 6.86 | 3.71 | 1.41 | 0.572 | |
| P/B Ratio | -21.21 | 8.55 | 4.97 | 2.530 | |
| P/FCF | -18.38 | -14.97 | -6.39 | -6.392 | |
| P/OCF | — | — | 404.47 | 404.465 | |
| EV/EBITDA | -53.57 | -112.37 | 139.23 | 139.228 | |
| EV/Revenue | 10.66 | 5.00 | 2.26 | 2.258 | |
| EV/EBIT | -41.34 | -47.59 | -50.20 | -50.201 | |
| EV/FCF | -28.54 | -20.17 | -10.21 | -10.213 | |
| Earnings Yield | -0.2% | -0.0% | 0.1% | 0.14% | |
| FCF Yield | -5.4% | -6.7% | -15.6% | -15.65% | |
| PEG Ratio | snapshot only | 0.041 | |||
| Price/Tangible Book | snapshot only | 7.438 | |||
| EV/OCF | snapshot only | 646.255 | |||
| EV/Gross Profit | snapshot only | 8.223 | |||
| Acquirers Multiple | snapshot only | 798.566 | |||
| Shareholder Yield | snapshot only | 1.07% | |||
| Graham Number | snapshot only | $1.03 | |||
Leverage & Solvency
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.58 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.040 | |
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.965 | |
| Debt/Equity | -12.34 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.592 | |
| Net Debt/Equity | — | 2.97 | 2.97 | 2.970 | |
| Debt/Assets | 0.97 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.488 | |
| Debt/EBITDA | -20.07 | -35.05 | 63.00 | 62.999 | |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -19.07 | -28.98 | 52.09 | 52.091 | |
| Interest Coverage | -4.62 | -3.36 | -1.95 | -1.947 | |
| Equity Multiplier | -12.78 | 7.37 | 7.37 | 7.366 | |
| Cash Ratio | snapshot only | 0.736 | |||
| Debt Service Coverage | snapshot only | 0.702 | |||
| Cash to Debt | snapshot only | 0.173 | |||
| FCF to Debt | snapshot only | -0.216 | |||
| Defensive Interval | snapshot only | 266.5 days | |||
Efficiency & Turnover
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.477 | |
| Inventory Turnover | 17.61 | 25.54 | 40.19 | 40.191 | |
| Receivables Turnover | 12.25 | 31.77 | 48.54 | 48.537 | |
| Payables Turnover | 5.47 | 6.10 | 9.61 | 9.605 | |
| DSO | 30 | 11 | 8 | 7.5 days | |
| DIO | 21 | 14 | 9 | 9.1 days | |
| DPO | 67 | 60 | 38 | 38.0 days | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | -16 | -34 | -21 | -21.4 days | |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | snapshot only | 0.704 | |||
| Operating Cycle | snapshot only | 16.6 days | |||
| Cash Velocity | snapshot only | 5.652 | |||
| Capital Intensity | snapshot only | 2.095 | |||
Growth Quality
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Stability | — | — | — | — | |
| Earnings Stability | — | — | — | — | |
| Margin Stability | — | — | — | — | |
| Rev. Growth Consistency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| Earn. Growth Consistency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 | |
| FCF Positive Streak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Earnings Persistence | — | — | — | — | |
| Earnings Smoothness | — | — | — | — | |
| ROE Trend | — | — | — | — | |
| Gross Margin Trend | — | — | — | — | |
| FCF Margin Trend | — | — | — | — | |
| Sustainable Growth Rate | — | — | 0.7% | 0.70% | |
| Internal Growth Rate | — | — | 0.1% | 0.09% |
Cash Flow Quality
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCF/Net Income | 15.92 | 103.83 | 1.76 | 1.764 | |
| FCF/OCF | 1.70 | 4.19 | -63.28 | -63.280 | |
| FCF/Net Income | snapshot only | -111.635 | |||
| OCF/EBITDA | snapshot only | 0.215 | |||
| CapEx/Revenue | 15.3% | 18.9% | 22.5% | 22.46% | |
| CapEx/Depreciation | snapshot only | 3.670 | |||
| Accruals Ratio | 0.05 | 0.02 | -0.00 | -0.001 | |
| Sloan Accruals | snapshot only | -0.080 | |||
| Cash Flow Adequacy | snapshot only | 0.016 | |||
| Earnings Quality Score | snapshot only | 1.000 | |||
Dividends & Buybacks
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00% | |
| Dividend/Share | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| Payout Ratio | — | — | 0.0% | 0.00% | |
| FCF Payout Ratio | — | — | — | — | |
| Total Payout Ratio | — | — | 763.5% | 763.54% | |
| Div. Increase Streak | — | — | — | — | |
| Chowder Number | — | — | — | — | |
| Buyback Yield | 68.7% | 62.2% | 1.1% | 1.07% | |
| Net Buyback Yield | 68.7% | 62.1% | 1.1% | 1.07% | |
| Total Shareholder Return | 68.7% | 62.1% | 1.1% | 1.07% |
DuPont Factors
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax Burden (NI/EBT) | 0.04 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.026 | |
| Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) | 1.22 | 1.30 | 1.72 | 1.722 | |
| EBIT Margin | -0.26 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.045 | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.477 | |
| Equity Multiplier | -12.78 | 7.37 | 7.37 | 7.366 |
Per Share
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (Diluted TTM) | $-0.05 | $-0.00 | $0.02 | $0.02 | |
| Book Value/Share | $-1.13 | $2.60 | $2.60 | $6.12 | |
| Tangible Book/Share | $-2.25 | $1.74 | $1.74 | $1.74 | |
| Revenue/Share | $3.48 | $5.99 | $9.14 | $11.85 | |
| FCF/Share | $-1.30 | $-1.49 | $-2.02 | $-1.11 | |
| OCF/Share | $-0.77 | $-0.36 | $0.03 | $0.92 | |
| Cash/Share | $0.69 | $1.62 | $1.62 | $1.14 | |
| EBITDA/Share | $-0.69 | $-0.27 | $0.15 | $0.15 | |
| Debt/Share | $13.88 | $9.35 | $9.34 | $9.34 | |
| Net Debt/Share | $13.19 | $7.73 | $7.72 | $7.72 |
Academic Models
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altman Z-Score | — | — | — | 0.999 | |
| Altman Z-Prime | snapshot only | 0.913 | |||
| Piotroski F-Score | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Beneish M-Score | — | — | — | — | |
| Ohlson O-Score | snapshot only | -5.619 | |||
| ROIC (Greenblatt) | snapshot only | -3.14% | |||
| Net-Net WC | snapshot only | $-10.91 | |||
| EVA | snapshot only | $-17773240.00 | |||
Credit
| Metric | Trend | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Rating | snapshot only | CCC | |||
| Credit Score | 15.30 | 24.70 | 12.15 | 12.151 | |
| Credit Grade | snapshot only | 17 | |||
| Implied Spread (bps) | snapshot only | 1200.000 | |||
| Industry Credit Rank | snapshot only | 4 | |||
| Sector Credit Rank | snapshot only | 0 | |||