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BRSL NYSE

Brightstar Lottery
1W: -0.6% 1M: -12.6% 3M: -17.9% YTD: -27.8%
$11.20
+0.15 (+1.36%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±6.7%
$9 $10 $11 $11 $12
NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos · Alpha Radar Strong Sell · Power 30 · $2.1B mcap · 100M float · 1.42% daily turnover · Short 48% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
50.6 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Cost Advantage  ·  ROIC: 11.7%
Cost Advantage ★
67
Intangibles
51
Switching Cost
60
Network Effect
23
Scale
40
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. BRSL shows a Weak competitive edge (50.6/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Cost Advantage. ROIC of 11.7% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$13
Low
$14
Avg Target
$15
High
Based on 3 analysts since May 12, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 4Hold: 2Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$13.87
Analysts3
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-05-14 Susquehanna Initiated $15 +35.4% $11.07
2026-05-14 BNP Paribas Initiated $13 +14.9% $10.97
2026-05-13 Truist Financial $17 $14 -3 +27.5% $10.98
2026-02-19 Stifel Nicolaus $21 $20 -1 +47.3% $13.58
2026-01-13 Truist Financial Barry Jonas $18 $17 -1 +15.0% $14.78
2025-11-05 Stifel Nicolaus $18 $21 +3 +25.4% $16.75
2025-10-21 Truist Financial Barry Jonas Initiated $18 +7.5% $16.74
2025-07-25 Stifel Nicolaus Jeffrey Stantial Initiated $18 +23.7% $14.55

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

B+
May 22, 2026
DCF
5
ROE
5
ROA
3
D/E
1
P/E
3
P/B
2
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. BRSL receives an overall rating of B+. Strongest factors: DCF (5/5), ROE (5/5). Areas of concern: D/E (1/5), P/B (2/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-04-01 B B+
2026-03-12 B- B
2026-02-27 B+ B-
2026-01-13 B B+
2026-01-03 B+ B

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

19 Grade D
Profitability
51
Balance Sheet
33
Earnings Quality
25
Growth
Value
73
Momentum
Safety
15
Cash Flow
18
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. BRSL scores highest in Value (73/100) and lowest in Safety (15/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
0.47
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
2/9
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score
-5.92
Bankruptcy prob: 0.3%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
B-
Score: 24.3/100
Earnings Quality
25/100
OCF/NI: -2.29x
Accruals: 7.7%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. BRSL scores 0.47, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. BRSL scores 2/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. BRSL's implied 0.3% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. BRSL receives an estimated rating of B- (score: 24.3/100). The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). BRSL's score of 25/100 is low — reported earnings may not be fully supported by cash flows.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
13.27x
PEG
-0.20x
P/S
0.82x
P/B
2.46x
P/FCF
-3.19x
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
7.01x
EV/Revenue
2.75x
EV/EBIT
10.96x
EV/FCF
-6.94x
Earnings Yield
9.02%
FCF Yield
-31.35%
Shareholder Yield
44.55%
Graham Number
$11.00
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 13.3x earnings, BRSL trades at a reasonable valuation. An earnings yield of 9.0% exceeds typical risk-free rates, suggesting equities are being compensated for risk. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $11.00 per share, 2% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.621
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.732
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.251
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.206
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
10.466
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
24.6%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. BRSL's ROE of 24.6% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 10.47x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$9.77
Price/Value
1.30x
Margin of Safety
-30.36%
Premium
30.36%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with BRSL's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR — what the company actually delivered, not what analysts hope for. BRSL trades at a 30% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $9.77, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 13.3x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 225 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$11.20
Median 1Y
$8.70
5th Pctile
$5.35
95th Pctile
$14.16
Ann. Volatility
29.9%
Analyst Target
$13.87
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
ROE 7.1% 20.3% 24.6% 24.57%
ROA 1.1% 1.9% 2.3% 2.35%
ROIC 2.6% 9.4% 11.7% 11.72%
ROCE 2.2% 5.7% 7.8% 7.77%
Gross Margin 51.2% 49.3% 37.6% 37.65%
Operating Margin 37.8% 35.0% 21.6% 21.64%
Net Margin 18.6% 9.1% 6.3% 6.30%
EBITDA Margin 35.8% 35.0% 47.9% 47.87%
FCF Margin -84.6% -61.8% -39.6% -39.64%
OCF Margin -73.5% -50.6% -26.1% -26.10%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 8.47%
Cash ROA snapshot only -5.37%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -13.37%
CROIC snapshot only -20.30%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 22.88%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 18.37%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 2.02%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 12.47%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio 28.51 16.61 11.08 13.275
P/S Ratio 5.30 2.28 1.26 0.824
P/B Ratio 2.02 3.38 2.72 2.458
P/FCF -6.27 -3.69 -3.19 -3.190
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA 36.54 12.55 7.01 7.009
EV/Revenue 13.07 4.44 2.75 2.753
EV/EBIT 48.36 16.65 10.96 10.965
EV/FCF -15.46 -7.18 -6.94 -6.944
Earnings Yield 3.5% 6.0% 9.0% 9.02%
FCF Yield -15.9% -27.1% -31.4% -31.35%
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 5.948
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 8.658
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 44.55%
Graham Number snapshot only $11.00
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio 2.29 0.76 0.76 0.760
Quick Ratio 2.25 0.72 0.72 0.723
Debt/Equity 3.31 4.86 4.86 4.857
Net Debt/Equity 2.96 3.20 3.20 3.205
Debt/Assets 0.53 0.46 0.46 0.464
Debt/EBITDA 24.31 9.26 5.74 5.743
Net Debt/EBITDA 21.71 6.11 3.79 3.789
Interest Coverage 4.72 3.17 3.11 3.112
Equity Multiplier 6.22 10.47 10.47 10.466
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.471
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 4.868
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.340
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.176
Defensive Interval snapshot only 2636.6 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.06 0.14 0.21 0.206
Inventory Turnover 2.72 5.57 8.72 8.724
Receivables Turnover 1.34 2.47 3.58 3.582
Payables Turnover 0.43 0.84 1.32 1.321
DSO 272 148 102 101.9 days
DIO 134 66 42 41.8 days
DPO 854 433 276 276.3 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -448 -219 -133 -132.5 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 2.191
Operating Cycle snapshot only 143.7 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 1.303
Capital Intensity snapshot only 4.861
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability
Earnings Stability
Margin Stability
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence
Earnings Smoothness
ROE Trend
Gross Margin Trend
FCF Margin Trend
Sustainable Growth Rate -33.9% -60.8% -61.4% -61.37%
Internal Growth Rate
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income -3.95 -3.69 -2.29 -2.287
FCF/OCF 1.15 1.22 1.52 1.519
FCF/Net Income snapshot only -3.474
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only -0.664
CapEx/Revenue 11.0% 11.2% 13.5% 13.54%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.956
Accruals Ratio 0.06 0.09 0.08 0.077
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.255
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -0.488
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.250
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 20.3% 24.0% 31.6% 34.36%
Dividend/Share $3.46 $3.72 $4.02 $3.85
Payout Ratio 5.8% 4.0% 3.5% 3.50%
FCF Payout Ratio
Total Payout Ratio 8.0% 5.6% 4.9% 4.94%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield 7.9% 9.5% 13.0% 12.99%
Net Buyback Yield 7.9% 9.5% 13.0% 12.99%
Total Shareholder Return 28.2% 33.5% 44.6% 44.55%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.87 0.70 0.62 0.621
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 0.79 0.73 0.73 0.732
EBIT Margin 0.27 0.27 0.25 0.251
Asset Turnover 0.06 0.14 0.21 0.206
Equity Multiplier 6.22 10.47 10.47 10.466
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.60 $0.93 $1.15 $1.15
Book Value/Share $8.43 $4.58 $4.68 $11.34
Tangible Book/Share $-7.98 $-10.25 $-10.47 $-10.47
Revenue/Share $3.21 $6.79 $10.07 $13.52
FCF/Share $-2.71 $-4.20 $-3.99 $-2.80
OCF/Share $-2.36 $-3.44 $-2.63 $-0.87
Cash/Share $2.98 $7.57 $7.73 $6.85
EBITDA/Share $1.15 $2.40 $3.96 $3.96
Debt/Share $27.90 $22.25 $22.73 $22.73
Net Debt/Share $24.92 $14.68 $14.99 $14.99
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Altman Z-Score 0.469
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 0.150
Piotroski F-Score 2 2 2 2
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -5.916
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-27.98
EVA snapshot only $63172254.34
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B-
Credit Score 33.95 22.61 24.34 24.338
Credit Grade snapshot only 16
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 900.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 20
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 11

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms