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CARL NASDAQ

Carlsmed, Inc.
1W: +17.6% 1M: +19.1% 3M: -0.9% YTD: +8.8%
$12.11
-0.54 (-4.27%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±9.5%
$9 $10 $11 $12 $13
NASDAQ · Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Information Services · Alpha Radar Buy · Power 68 · $329.2M mcap · 10M float · 1.60% daily turnover · Short 59% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
49.8 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: -186.0%
Cost Advantage
31
Intangibles
63
Switching Cost
67
Network Effect
39
Scale
35
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. CARL shows a Weak competitive edge (49.8/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. Negative ROIC of -186.0% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$0
Low
$18
Avg Target
$20
High
Based on 4 analyst ratings (12 mo)
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 3Hold: 0Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$18.00
Analysts1
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-04-15 Truist Financial Initiated $18 +66.7% $10.80
2026-01-09 Goldman Sachs Initiated $20 +55.4% $12.87
2025-12-15 BTIG Ryan Zimmerman Initiated $24 +85.3% $12.95
2025-08-18 Piper Sandler Matt O'Brien Initiated $18 +32.5% $13.58

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C-
May 22, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
2
P/E
1
P/B
3
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. CARL receives an overall rating of C-. Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), D/E (2/5), P/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-04-01 C C-
2026-01-03 C- C

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

38 Grade D
Profitability
20
Balance Sheet
23
Earnings Quality
57
Growth
Value
30
Momentum
Safety
100
Cash Flow
30
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. CARL scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Profitability (20/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
4.39
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score
-6.13
Bankruptcy prob: 0.2%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BBB+
Score: 64.2/100
Earnings Quality
OCF/NI: 1.01x
Accruals: 0.3%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. CARL scores 4.39, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. CARL scores 1/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. CARL's implied 0.2% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. CARL receives an estimated rating of BBB+ (score: 64.2/100).

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-9.79x
PEG
-0.27x
P/S
5.83x
P/B
3.52x
P/FCF
-9.09x
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
-4.78x
EV/Revenue
3.39x
EV/EBIT
-6.72x
EV/FCF
-5.63x
Earnings Yield
-10.88%
FCF Yield
-11.00%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. CARL currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.822
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
1.436
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
-0.505
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.341
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.316
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-26.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. CARL's ROE of -26.7% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.341), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
Price/Value
Margin of Safety
Premium
Assessment
Overvalued

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 211 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$12.11
Median 1Y
$7.54
5th Pctile
$2.20
95th Pctile
$25.76
Ann. Volatility
72.3%
Analyst Target
$18.00
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
Mike Cordonnier
Chief Executive Officer, President and Co-Founder
$480,822 $353,218 $2,789,967
Scott Durall
Chief Commercial Officer
$411,260 $— $1,516,272
Leo Greenstein
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
$377,863 $— $1,119,311

CEO Pay Ratio

7:1
CEO-to-Employee Pay Ratio
CEO Total Comp: $2,789,967
Avg Employee Cost (SGA/emp): $406,260
Employees: 127

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
127
Revenue / Employee
$397,724
Rev: $50,511,000
Profit / Employee
$-237,937
NI: $-30,218,000
SGA / Employee
$406,260
Avg labor cost proxy
R&D / Employee
$134,008
Innovation spend

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
ROE 12.1% -17.9% -26.7% -26.72%
ROA -16.5% -13.6% -20.3% -20.30%
ROIC -7.6% -73.1% -1.9% -1.86%
ROCE -18.9% -19.3% -19.3% -19.32%
Gross Margin 75.9% 76.5% 77.1% 77.10%
Operating Margin 69.1% -99.2% -57.6% -57.56%
Net Margin -65.2% -60.6% -54.0% -53.96%
EBITDA Margin -61.7% -93.2% -57.6% -57.56%
FCF Margin -67.3% -48.3% -60.3% -60.25%
OCF Margin -64.7% -48.8% -60.4% -60.39%
ROIC Economic snapshot only -10.46%
Cash ROA snapshot only -20.59%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -4.13%
CROIC snapshot only -4.12%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only -27.21%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -72.48%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 33.56%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 1.05%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 7.04%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio -33.11 -9.91 -9.19 -9.793
P/S Ratio 21.59 6.22 5.48 5.833
P/B Ratio -4.00 1.78 2.46 3.523
P/FCF -32.07 -12.88 -9.09 -9.088
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA -32.16 -3.75 -4.78 -4.780
EV/Revenue 19.84 2.95 3.39 3.393
EV/EBIT -31.84 -3.72 -6.72 -6.723
EV/FCF -29.46 -6.11 -5.63 -5.631
Earnings Yield -3.0% -10.1% -10.9% -10.88%
FCF Yield -3.1% -7.8% -11.0% -11.00%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 2.456
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 4.431
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio 5.60 8.87 8.87 8.871
Quick Ratio 5.48 8.74 8.74 8.741
Debt/Equity -0.24 0.18 0.18 0.176
Net Debt/Equity -0.93 -0.93 -0.934
Debt/Assets 0.33 0.13 0.13 0.134
Debt/EBITDA -2.13 -0.78 -0.55 -0.553
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.85 4.16 2.93 2.934
Interest Coverage -21.44 -20.98 -29.61 -29.610
Equity Multiplier -0.73 1.32 1.32 1.316
Cash Ratio snapshot only 7.689
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only -41.642
Cash to Debt snapshot only 6.305
FCF to Debt snapshot only -1.535
Defensive Interval snapshot only 657.0 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.25 0.22 0.34 0.341
Inventory Turnover 3.16 3.63 5.63 5.634
Receivables Turnover 1.93 2.49 3.90 3.904
Payables Turnover 1.30 1.50 2.32 2.320
DSO 189 147 93 93.5 days
DIO 115 100 65 64.8 days
DPO 280 244 157 157.3 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 25 3 1 0.9 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 13.388
Operating Cycle snapshot only 158.3 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.404
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.934
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability
Earnings Stability
Margin Stability
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence
Earnings Smoothness
ROE Trend
Gross Margin Trend
FCF Margin Trend
Sustainable Growth Rate
Internal Growth Rate
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 0.99 0.78 1.01 1.014
FCF/OCF 1.04 0.99 1.00 0.998
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.012
CapEx/Revenue 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.14%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.350
Accruals Ratio -0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.003
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.024
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -425.190
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio
FCF Payout Ratio
Total Payout Ratio
Div. Increase Streak
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield -33.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.08%
Total Shareholder Return -33.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.08%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 0.76 0.82 0.822
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.05 1.05 1.44 1.436
EBIT Margin -0.62 -0.79 -0.50 -0.505
Asset Turnover 0.25 0.22 0.34 0.341
Equity Multiplier -0.73 1.32 1.32 1.316
Per Share
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.40 $-1.25 $-0.98 $-0.98
Book Value/Share $-3.35 $6.95 $3.68 $3.44
Tangible Book/Share $-3.35 $6.95 $3.68 $3.68
Revenue/Share $0.62 $1.99 $1.65 $2.10
FCF/Share $-0.42 $-0.96 $-1.00 $-1.28
OCF/Share $-0.40 $-0.97 $-1.00 $-1.26
Cash/Share $1.90 $7.72 $4.09 $3.62
EBITDA/Share $-0.38 $-1.56 $-1.17 $-1.17
Debt/Share $0.81 $1.22 $0.65 $0.65
Net Debt/Share $-1.09 $-6.50 $-3.44 $-3.44
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Altman Z-Score 4.388
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 10.145
Piotroski F-Score 2 2 1 1
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.132
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -19.35%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $3.56
EVA snapshot only $-12718620.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BBB+
Credit Score 20.00 53.14 64.15 64.154
Credit Grade snapshot only 8
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 225.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 60
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 57

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms