GEO NYSE
The GEO Group, Inc.
1W: +1.1%
1M: -6.5%
3M: -5.6%
YTD: +77.5%
1Y: +63.7%
3Y: +233.4%
5Y: +237.8%
$28.27
+0.70 (+2.54%)
Weekly Expected Move ±6.5%
$24
$26
$27
$29
$31
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 60% of companies Debt: 30.2% of company value Bonds: $181.2M held by 170 funds, 316 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.07 (down 96%), The GEO Group, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $1.61B against a stock market value of $3.72B.
Distance to default 4.19 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $786.6M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 48.7%; Altman Z 2.43. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.07 (down 96%), The GEO Group, Inc. would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $1.61B against a stock market value of $3.72B.
Distance to default 4.19 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-27, balance sheet 2026-06-30, debt counted $786.6M (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 48.7%; Altman Z 2.43. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Income Statement
Cash Flow
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Cash Flow Trends
Operating Cash Flow
$73M
-70.0% ▼
5Y CAGR: -30.3%
Capital Expenditures
$198M
-151.0% ▼
5Y CAGR: +12.7%
Free Cash Flow
-$125M
-176.4% ▼
Dividends Paid
$0
+0.0% ▲
Buybacks
$91M
+0.0% ▲
Net Change in Cash
-$2M
+93.4% ▲
Cash Flow Composition
Year-over-Year Growth
View Full Cash Flow Statement
| Line Item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Operating Activities — | |||||
| Net Income | $77M | $172M | $107M | $32M | $254M |
| Depreciation & Amort. | $135M | $133M | $126M | $126M | $132M |
| Stock-Based Comp. | $19M | $16M | $15M | $18M | $24M |
| Change in Working Capital | -$42M | -$26M | $20M | -$29M | -$136M |
| Other Non-Cash Items | $7M | $14M | $16M | $94M | -$224M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $283M | $296M | $285M | $242M | $73M |
| — Investing Activities — | |||||
| Capital Expenditures | -$69M | -$90M | -$73M | -$79M | -$198M |
| Acquisitions (Net) | $4M | -$93M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Investment Purchases | -$19M | -$8M | $0 | -$33M | -$22M |
| Investment Sales | $29M | $101M | $0 | $10M | $5M |
| Other Investing | $1M | $93M | $12M | $0 | $321M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -$54M | $3M | -$61M | -$102M | $106M |
| — Financing Activities — | |||||
| Net Debt Issuance | $44M | -$698M | -$208M | -$96M | -$74M |
| Stock Repurchased | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$91M |
| Dividends Paid | -$30M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other Financing | -$2M | $264K | -$5M | -$81M | -$26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | $11M | -$699M | -$208M | -$169M | -$186M |
| Net Change in Cash | $236M | -$404M | $16M | -$34M | -$2M |
| Cash End of Period | $548M | $144M | $160M | $126M | $124M |
| Free Cash Flow | $213M | $206M | $212M | $164M | -$125M |