— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice
Also trades as: HPKEW (NASDAQ) · $vol 0M

HPK NASDAQ

HighPeak Energy, Inc.
1W: +7.5% 1M: +17.9% 3M: +37.7% YTD: +63.3% 1Y: -22.2% 3Y: -43.5% 5Y: -10.7%
$7.85
+0.55 (+7.53%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±12.3%
$5 $6 $7 $8 $9
NASDAQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Alpha Radar Buy · Power 64 · $991.9M mcap · 22M float · 4.76% daily turnover · Short 39% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

NO EDGE
27.0 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Efficient Scale  ·  ROIC: 2.9%  ·  5Y Avg: 11.8%
Cost Advantage
37
Intangibles
18
Switching Cost
26
Network Effect
19
Scale ★
38
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. HPK has No discernible competitive edge (27.0/100). The business operates without significant structural advantages. The primary source of advantage is Efficient Scale. ROIC of 2.9% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$0
Low
$12
Avg Target
$12
High
Based on 1 analyst ratings (12 mo)
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 3Hold: 1Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$12.00
Analysts1
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2025-10-13 Roth Capital Nick Pope Initiated $12 +73.9% $6.90
2024-09-30 Truist Financial Neal Dingmann $13 $12 -1 -17.7% $14.58
2024-05-23 Truist Financial Neal Dingmann Initiated $13 -12.1% $14.79

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C
May 22, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
2
P/E
1
P/B
5
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. HPK receives an overall rating of C. Strongest factors: P/B (5/5). Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), D/E (2/5), P/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-05-08 B- C
2026-04-28 B B-
2026-04-01 C+ B
2026-03-13 B- C+
2026-03-09 B B-

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

9 Grade D
Profitability
16
Balance Sheet
52
Earnings Quality
41
Growth
12
Value
50
Momentum
20
Safety
15
Cash Flow
12
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. HPK scores highest in Balance Sheet (52/100) and lowest in Growth (12/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
0.82
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
Beneish M-Score
-0.73
Possible Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-6.84
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
B
Score: 28.3/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
OCF/NI: -2.78x
Accruals: -17.1%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. HPK scores 0.82, placing it in the Distress Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Historically, companies in this range face elevated bankruptcy risk. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. HPK scores 5/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. HPK's score of -0.73 exceeds the −1.78 red flag threshold — this does not confirm manipulation but indicates the earnings profile resembles past manipulators statistically. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. HPK's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. HPK receives an estimated rating of B (score: 28.3/100), with a deteriorating trend.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-6.79x
PEG
0.03x
P/S
1.29x
P/B
0.67x
P/FCF
-37.50x
P/OCF
2.15x
EV/EBITDA
3.59x
EV/Revenue
2.46x
EV/EBIT
18.61x
EV/FCF
-82.25x
Earnings Yield
-16.76%
FCF Yield
-2.67%
Shareholder Yield
2.41%
Graham Number
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. HPK currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.827
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
-1.720
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.132
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.241
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.003
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-9.1%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. HPK's ROE of -9.1% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.241), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
Price/Value
Margin of Safety
Premium
Assessment
Overvalued

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$7.85
Median 1Y
$5.96
5th Pctile
$1.85
95th Pctile
$19.30
Ann. Volatility
70.3%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
47
-2.1% YoY
Revenue / Employee
$22,753,489
Rev: $1,069,414,000
Profit / Employee
$2,022,745
NI: $95,069,000
SGA / Employee
$704,106
Avg labor cost proxy

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
ROE -0.2% 4.0% 10.8% 6.7% 20.7% 40.1% 27.5% 35.2% 29.9% 21.9% 15.9% 12.6% 12.5% 13.3% 6.0% 7.9% 7.7% 3.4% 1.2% -9.1% -9.06%
ROA -0.2% 3.6% 8.2% 5.1% 15.6% 30.4% 15.3% 19.6% 16.6% 12.2% 8.1% 6.4% 6.3% 6.8% 3.1% 4.1% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6% -4.5% -4.52%
ROIC 2.3% 8.6% 12.7% 16.8% 30.1% 42.6% 17.4% 19.1% 17.6% 18.5% 13.0% 13.4% 13.2% 11.1% 9.6% 9.4% 8.4% 7.0% 4.1% 2.9% 2.88%
ROCE -0.1% 4.7% 10.5% 7.9% 22.2% 42.0% 17.7% 22.9% 21.3% 18.2% 15.2% 13.8% 14.0% 14.6% 10.6% 11.6% 11.0% 7.7% 4.7% 3.3% 3.28%
Gross Margin 50.1% 52.8% 61.8% 65.9% 69.3% 64.3% 53.6% 43.5% 41.4% 49.0% 38.7% 39.0% 35.7% 31.0% 35.0% 37.8% 26.5% 23.8% -7.4% 19.8% 19.77%
Operating Margin 43.6% 46.3% 53.7% 59.2% 61.0% 58.0% 49.2% 39.6% 35.3% 42.3% 35.5% 35.8% 31.7% 27.0% 31.4% 35.1% 21.7% 17.3% -9.9% 16.7% 16.68%
Net Margin 11.9% 17.0% 37.5% -17.9% 38.5% 52.9% 26.3% 22.5% 13.2% 11.2% 31.5% 2.2% 10.8% 18.4% 3.8% 14.1% 13.1% -9.7% -15.2% -59.0% -59.04%
EBITDA Margin 50.1% 52.9% 73.0% 5.2% 71.8% 95.7% 73.7% 77.3% 70.9% 60.0% 99.0% 63.8% 77.2% 89.3% 66.4% 74.0% 84.5% 60.8% 56.9% 69.2% 69.17%
FCF Margin -1.5% -1.2% -65.4% -80.9% -1.4% -1.2% -1.1% -1.0% -67.4% -50.5% -33.3% -13.1% 0.2% 10.1% 6.0% 4.3% 3.2% 4.7% 5.6% -3.0% -2.99%
OCF Margin 65.5% 75.7% 66.8% 64.7% 56.4% 60.7% 66.7% 72.6% 77.7% 67.7% 68.1% 62.8% 63.4% 69.2% 64.6% 65.1% 63.8% 63.3% 63.0% 52.2% 52.23%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 3.27%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 8.39%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 1.78%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 5.54%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 2.72%
Cash ROA snapshot only 12.06%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 15.33%
CROIC snapshot only -0.88%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 9.80%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -22.72%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 3.37%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.03%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio -830.24 43.10 24.77 59.68 25.87 11.67 10.93 8.62 4.74 11.01 8.36 11.57 10.43 9.68 19.60 12.68 10.06 16.51 31.31 -5.97 -6.790
P/S Ratio 11.06 6.58 6.25 7.14 6.24 4.03 3.43 2.95 1.32 1.95 1.62 1.69 1.47 1.54 1.74 1.53 1.27 1.00 0.73 1.12 1.287
P/B Ratio 1.90 1.68 2.49 3.70 4.96 4.35 2.21 2.24 1.04 1.78 1.16 1.28 1.14 1.13 1.16 0.99 0.76 0.55 0.37 0.54 0.670
P/FCF -7.59 -5.40 -9.56 -8.83 -4.38 -3.31 -3.13 -2.91 -1.96 -3.85 -4.88 -12.97 645.30 15.21 29.12 35.32 39.31 21.10 13.02 -37.50 -37.496
P/OCF 16.87 8.68 9.36 11.03 11.07 6.64 5.14 4.06 1.70 2.87 2.39 2.70 2.31 2.23 2.70 2.34 1.99 1.57 1.16 2.15 2.147
EV/EBITDA 26.88 11.45 10.27 16.73 11.39 5.92 6.10 4.68 2.60 3.71 3.25 3.43 3.03 2.89 3.56 3.18 2.88 2.92 2.86 3.59 3.591
EV/Revenue 10.82 6.42 6.54 7.36 6.39 4.14 4.32 3.71 2.05 2.58 2.48 2.51 2.26 2.39 2.64 2.45 2.27 2.09 2.00 2.46 2.459
EV/EBIT -1245.54 32.08 19.22 37.14 17.63 8.21 9.14 7.14 4.42 7.51 6.50 7.65 6.96 6.63 9.63 7.91 7.15 8.61 11.05 18.61 18.609
EV/FCF -7.43 -5.27 -10.00 -9.10 -4.48 -3.40 -3.94 -3.65 -3.04 -5.10 -7.47 -19.20 993.30 23.51 44.17 56.78 70.29 44.27 35.64 -82.25 -82.254
Earnings Yield -0.1% 2.3% 4.0% 1.7% 3.9% 8.6% 9.1% 11.6% 21.1% 9.1% 12.0% 8.6% 9.6% 10.3% 5.1% 7.9% 9.9% 6.1% 3.2% -16.8% -16.76%
FCF Yield -13.2% -18.5% -10.5% -11.3% -22.8% -30.2% -32.0% -34.4% -51.1% -26.0% -20.5% -7.7% 0.2% 6.6% 3.4% 2.8% 2.5% 4.7% 7.7% -2.7% -2.67%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.030
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 0.542
EV/OCF snapshot only 4.709
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 14.766
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 19.829
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 2.41%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio 1.48 1.48 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 1.13 1.13 1.129
Quick Ratio 1.48 1.48 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 1.10 1.10 1.096
Debt/Equity 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.75 0.75 0.749
Net Debt/Equity -0.04 -0.04 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.647
Debt/Assets 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.36 0.357
Debt/EBITDA 0.02 0.01 0.70 0.78 0.40 0.23 1.32 1.00 0.97 0.95 1.36 1.34 1.28 1.23 1.32 1.31 1.38 1.66 2.10 2.26 2.261
Net Debt/EBITDA -0.58 -0.28 0.45 0.50 0.26 0.15 1.26 0.96 0.92 0.91 1.13 1.11 1.06 1.02 1.21 1.20 1.27 1.53 1.81 1.95 1.954
Interest Coverage -3.36 21.00 30.15 7.40 9.47 9.87 7.06 6.38 4.19 2.94 2.87 2.34 2.33 2.35 1.74 1.99 1.97 1.44 1.01 0.71 0.707
Equity Multiplier 1.13 1.13 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.48 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 2.09 2.09 2.095
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.704
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 3.665
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.136
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.019
Defensive Interval snapshot only 2422.4 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.16 0.23 0.32 0.42 0.65 0.88 0.49 0.57 0.60 0.69 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.42 0.35 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.25 0.24 0.241
Inventory Turnover 280.03 415.45 58.98 67.52 89.52 118.98 34.48 45.92 55.50 67.96 61.21 66.00 69.49 70.59 76.09 74.39 71.12 66.35 67.68 69.09 69.094
Receivables Turnover 14.70 21.91 9.35 12.17 18.67 25.33 11.12 13.05 13.63 15.71 11.63 12.29 12.66 11.88 11.89 11.56 10.72 9.80 11.54 10.95 10.952
Payables Turnover 4.57 6.78 4.42 5.06 6.71 8.91 3.98 5.30 6.40 7.84 7.43 8.01 8.43 8.57 10.07 9.84 9.41 8.78 7.95 8.12 8.117
DSO 25 17 39 30 20 14 33 28 27 23 31 30 29 31 31 32 34 37 32 33 33.3 days
DIO 1 1 6 5 4 3 11 8 7 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5.3 days
DPO 80 54 83 72 54 41 92 69 57 47 49 46 43 43 36 37 39 42 46 45 45.0 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -54 -36 -37 -37 -31 -23 -48 -33 -24 -18 -12 -10 -9 -7 -1 -1 0 1 -9 -6 -6.4 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.263
Operating Cycle snapshot only 38.6 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 4.757
Capital Intensity snapshot only 4.332
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue 7.6% 6.2% 15.9% 7.4% 4.4% 3.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.1% 79.1% 47.1% 32.5% 30.6% 6.3% -3.8% -11.6% -20.3% -22.4% -24.0% -25.8% -25.80%
Net Income 98.8% 1.2% 1.6% 4.1% 98.8% 10.1% 3.3% 7.9% 1.4% -8.4% -8.9% -43.3% -34.1% -4.1% -56.0% -27.4% -28.5% -70.6% -80.1% -2.2% -2.16%
EPS 98.8% 1.2% 1.5% 4.1% 82.5% 7.9% 2.6% 6.2% 1.3% -16.9% -18.2% -48.5% -40.9% -5.6% -55.5% -26.0% -26.8% -69.6% -79.4% -2.2% -2.18%
FCF -10.4% 3.8% -9.9% -93.4% -4.3% -3.9% -4.8% -2.9% 0.3% 25.8% 55.4% 83.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 10.3% -63.9% -28.7% -1.5% -1.51%
EBITDA 1.4% 1.7% 2.6% 19.3% 6.5% 5.1% 2.8% 4.6% 2.0% 77.9% 58.8% 22.3% 23.6% 26.3% -6.5% -6.8% -15.9% -32.7% -28.4% -34.1% -34.13%
Op. Income 1.9% 2.7% 5.6% 13.4% 18.3% 6.1% 3.1% 2.0% 66.0% 28.1% 0.9% -3.4% 5.8% -17.0% -20.9% -26.3% -36.6% -35.2% -55.5% -70.6% -70.56%
OCF Growth snapshot only -40.44%
Asset Growth snapshot only 9.04%
Equity Growth snapshot only -0.49%
Debt Growth snapshot only 13.72%
Shares Change snapshot only -1.53%
Dividend Growth snapshot only -21.25%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue 3Y 4.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.0% 3.4% 2.3% 1.5% 1.1% 69.4% 53.6% 29.9% 13.9% 2.4% -4.6% -4.57%
Revenue 5Y 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 86.5% 86.52%
EPS 3Y 91.4% 9.0% 40.0% 0.3% -38.0% -57.8%
EPS 5Y
Net Income 3Y 1.1% 19.6% 53.9% 4.6% -36.3% -56.9%
Net Income 5Y
EBITDA 3Y 4.2% 2.0% 1.4% 78.3% 85.2% 45.4% 14.8% 2.1% -9.1% -9.11%
EBITDA 5Y 1.4% 1.43%
Gross Profit 3Y 8.9% 5.2% 5.7% 2.5% 1.3% 92.0% 46.8% 28.4% 3.4% -10.9% -27.0% -36.7% -36.71%
Gross Profit 5Y 2.8% 1.7% 1.6% 60.9% 60.93%
Op. Income 3Y 2.2% 96.4% 49.1% 29.2% 3.7% -11.7% -29.2% -40.6% -40.61%
Op. Income 5Y
FCF 3Y
FCF 5Y
OCF 3Y 4.7% 7.3% 3.8% 1.4% 1.0% 67.5% 53.9% 35.4% 15.5% 0.5% -14.5% -14.49%
OCF 5Y 1.9% 2.3% 1.3% 1.27%
Assets 3Y 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 78.9% 55.2% 55.2% 55.2% 55.2% 13.6% 13.6% 13.58%
Assets 5Y 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% 43.8% 44.1% 44.1% 44.08%
Equity 3Y 37.2% 37.2% 37.2% 37.2% 48.5% 48.5% 48.5% 48.5% 42.6% 42.6% 42.6% 42.6% 10.9% 10.9% 10.88%
Book Value 3Y 26.3% 26.1% 26.8% 23.0% 32.0% 33.4% 32.9% 33.0% 29.9% 29.7% 36.7% 38.8% 8.5% 8.6% 8.62%
Dividend 3Y -10.5% -14.9% -18.5% -6.2% -7.4% -2.1% 1.8% 4.6% 8.6% 1.3% 1.5% -0.5% -2.5% -9.5% -9.53%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability 0.78 0.82 0.87 0.88 0.81 0.83 0.92 0.94 0.98 0.97 0.99 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.83 0.73 0.61 0.48 0.481
Earnings Stability 0.16 0.98 1.00 0.98 0.65 0.85 0.99 0.87 0.73 0.72 0.80 0.74 0.46 0.51 0.55 0.30 0.08 0.03 0.033
Margin Stability 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.24 0.06 0.00 0.48 0.49 0.76 0.80 0.75 0.54 0.22 0.00 0.49 0.45 0.61 0.606
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
Earnings Persistence 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.97 0.96 0.83 0.86 0.98 0.50 0.89 0.89 0.50 0.50 0.20 0.200
Earnings Smoothness 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.91 0.91 0.45 0.59 0.96 0.22 0.68 0.67 0.00 0.00
ROE Trend 0.21 0.17 0.29 0.47 0.25 0.24 0.13 -0.04 -0.01 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.11 -0.11 -0.09 -0.11 -0.09 -0.19 -0.185
Gross Margin Trend 0.42 0.48 0.61 0.36 0.29 0.10 -0.06 -0.10 -0.15 -0.16 -0.17 -0.20 -0.18 -0.15 -0.13 -0.10 -0.17 -0.22 -0.219
FCF Margin Trend 10.88 6.56 5.00 3.94 4.25 1.14 0.77 0.71 0.54 0.78 1.05 0.96 0.77 0.62 0.37 0.25 0.19 0.01 0.014
Sustainable Growth Rate 1.2% 8.4% 3.7% 17.2% 37.9% 26.2% 33.8% 28.5% 20.4% 14.9% 11.5% 11.2% 11.8% 4.6% 6.6% 6.3% 2.0% -0.2%
Internal Growth Rate 1.1% 6.8% 2.9% 14.9% 40.3% 17.0% 23.2% 18.8% 12.8% 8.2% 6.2% 6.0% 6.4% 2.4% 3.5% 3.4% 1.0%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income -49.22 4.96 2.65 5.41 2.34 1.76 2.13 2.12 2.79 3.83 3.50 4.29 4.51 4.34 7.26 5.41 5.06 10.50 26.98 -2.78 -2.780
FCF/OCF -2.22 -1.61 -0.98 -1.25 -2.53 -2.01 -1.64 -1.40 -0.87 -0.75 -0.49 -0.21 0.00 0.15 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.09 -0.06 -0.057
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 0.159
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.763
CapEx/Revenue 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 75.8% 63.1% 59.0% 58.6% 60.7% 60.5% 58.6% 57.3% 55.2% 55.22%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.999
Accruals Ratio -0.11 -0.14 -0.13 -0.22 -0.21 -0.23 -0.17 -0.22 -0.30 -0.34 -0.20 -0.21 -0.22 -0.23 -0.19 -0.18 -0.16 -0.16 -0.15 -0.17 -0.171
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.096
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 0.910
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5% 3.7% 2.0% 2.04%
Dividend/Share $0.03 $0.14 $0.13 $0.16 $0.16 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.11 $0.10 $0.10 $0.12 $0.14 $0.16 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.18 $0.14 $0.16
Payout Ratio 69.5% 22.7% 44.4% 17.0% 5.4% 4.9% 4.0% 4.8% 6.7% 6.1% 9.1% 10.7% 11.1% 23.3% 17.3% 17.7% 40.6% 1.2%
FCF Payout Ratio 6.6% 17.5% 34.7% 48.1% 69.1% 51.9% 48.1%
Total Payout Ratio 1.1% 22.7% 44.4% 17.0% 5.4% 4.9% 4.0% 4.8% 6.7% 6.1% 14.2% 19.2% 26.2% 60.3% 38.4% 34.7% 62.7% 1.4%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Chowder Number 3.55 4.48 5.49 -0.14 -0.08 -0.20 -0.30 0.15 0.14 0.30 0.48 0.60 0.70 0.39 0.20 0.09 0.03 -0.19 -0.193
Buyback Yield 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.45%
Net Buyback Yield -10.6% -4.8% -2.6% -1.3% -1.0% -1.1% -0.0% -0.0% -0.1% -7.3% -8.6% -7.3% -7.8% 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.43%
Total Shareholder Return -10.2% -3.2% -1.7% -0.5% -0.3% -0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% -6.7% -7.8% -6.5% -6.8% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.3% 2.4% 2.39%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.26 0.80 0.77 0.69 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.75 0.73 0.74 0.77 0.75 0.72 0.83 0.827
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.21 0.95 0.97 0.88 0.91 0.91 0.87 0.85 0.78 0.67 0.66 0.59 0.58 0.59 0.45 0.52 0.52 0.33 0.18 -1.72 -1.720
EBIT Margin -0.01 0.20 0.34 0.20 0.36 0.50 0.47 0.52 0.46 0.34 0.38 0.33 0.32 0.36 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.24 0.18 0.13 0.132
Asset Turnover 0.16 0.23 0.32 0.42 0.65 0.88 0.49 0.57 0.60 0.69 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.42 0.35 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.25 0.24 0.241
Equity Multiplier 1.12 1.12 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.97 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.003
Per Share
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.01 $0.20 $0.57 $0.36 $0.95 $1.79 $2.02 $2.58 $2.22 $1.49 $1.65 $1.33 $1.31 $1.40 $0.74 $0.98 $0.96 $0.43 $0.15 $-1.16 $-1.16
Book Value/Share $5.12 $5.12 $5.65 $5.77 $4.97 $4.80 $9.98 $9.93 $10.09 $9.21 $11.89 $11.98 $12.01 $12.03 $12.40 $12.60 $12.71 $12.84 $12.73 $12.73 $11.72
Tangible Book/Share $5.11 $5.11 $5.65 $5.77 $4.97 $4.80 $9.98 $9.93 $10.09 $9.21 $11.89 $11.98 $12.01 $12.03 $12.40 $12.60 $12.71 $12.84 $12.73 $12.73 $12.73
Revenue/Share $0.88 $1.31 $2.25 $2.99 $3.95 $5.18 $6.45 $7.53 $7.99 $8.41 $8.51 $9.07 $9.36 $8.80 $8.28 $8.17 $7.65 $7.06 $6.49 $6.15 $6.15
FCF/Share $-1.28 $-1.60 $-1.47 $-2.42 $-5.63 $-6.31 $-7.06 $-7.65 $-5.38 $-4.25 $-2.83 $-1.18 $0.02 $0.89 $0.50 $0.35 $0.25 $0.33 $0.36 $-0.18 $-0.18
OCF/Share $0.58 $0.99 $1.50 $1.94 $2.23 $3.15 $4.30 $5.47 $6.20 $5.69 $5.79 $5.69 $5.93 $6.08 $5.34 $5.31 $4.88 $4.47 $4.08 $3.21 $3.21
Cash/Share $0.21 $0.21 $0.36 $0.36 $0.31 $0.30 $0.26 $0.26 $0.26 $0.24 $1.49 $1.50 $1.50 $1.51 $0.67 $0.68 $0.69 $0.69 $1.29 $1.29 $0.76
EBITDA/Share $0.35 $0.74 $1.43 $1.32 $2.22 $3.62 $4.56 $5.97 $6.29 $5.84 $6.50 $6.63 $6.98 $7.25 $6.15 $6.30 $6.01 $5.05 $4.54 $4.21 $4.21
Debt/Share $0.01 $0.01 $1.00 $1.02 $0.88 $0.85 $6.01 $5.98 $6.08 $5.55 $8.81 $8.88 $8.90 $8.91 $8.12 $8.25 $8.33 $8.41 $9.53 $9.53 $9.53
Net Debt/Share $-0.20 $-0.20 $0.64 $0.66 $0.57 $0.55 $5.75 $5.72 $5.81 $5.31 $7.32 $7.38 $7.40 $7.41 $7.45 $7.57 $7.64 $7.72 $8.24 $8.24 $8.24
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Altman Z-Score 0.821
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 1.205
Piotroski F-Score 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 5 5
Beneish M-Score 37.52 1.37 -0.90 -0.50 -0.38 -1.48 -1.53 -1.81 -2.38 -2.35 -2.55 -2.64 -2.28 -3.45 -3.41 -3.11 -3.23 -4.09 -0.73 -0.735
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.838
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 3.44%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-11.86
EVA snapshot only $-187089790.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B
Credit Score 65.74 89.66 83.72 80.93 80.41 79.31 53.95 55.18 42.73 46.04 44.86 45.30 45.95 47.99 39.43 38.83 37.44 30.35 34.17 28.27 28.270
Credit Grade snapshot only 15
Credit Trend snapshot only -10.559
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 750.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 16
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 18

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