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JCAP NASDAQ

Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
1W: -7.0% 1M: -14.7% 3M: -17.6% YTD: -21.4%
$17.29
-0.10 (-0.58%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±4.2%
$16 $17 $18 $19 $19
NASDAQ · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · Alpha Radar Strong Sell · Power 37 · $958.2M mcap · 10M float · 3.31% daily turnover · Short 49% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
51.4 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: 2.3%
Cost Advantage
69
Intangibles
39
Switching Cost
70
Network Effect
24
Scale
45
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. JCAP shows a Weak competitive edge (51.4/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. ROIC of 2.3% suggests modest returns relative to capital deployed.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$21
Low
$21
Avg Target
$21
High
Based on 1 analyst since May 14, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 7Hold: 1Sell: 1Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$25.00
Analysts2
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-05-15 Raymond James $25 $21 -4 +17.2% $17.92
2026-03-06 Jefferies John Hecht Initiated $29 +34.7% $21.54
2026-02-10 Capital One Financial Initiated $28 +24.6% $22.48
2025-12-19 Raymond James Robert Dodd Initiated $25 +12.6% $22.20
2025-11-14 JMP Securities Initiated $26 +25.1% $20.78

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

B
May 22, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
5
ROA
5
D/E
1
P/E
3
P/B
1
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. JCAP receives an overall rating of B. Strongest factors: ROE (5/5), ROA (5/5). Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), D/E (1/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-04-16 B+ B
2026-04-14 B B+
2026-04-10 B+ B
2026-04-01 B B+
2026-03-16 A- B
2026-02-12 B+ A-
2026-02-04 A- B+
2026-01-03 B+ A-

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

49 Grade C
Profitability
82
Balance Sheet
15
Earnings Quality
69
Growth
Value
77
Momentum
Safety
100
Cash Flow
76
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. JCAP scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Balance Sheet (15/100). A grade of C represents mixed fundamentals — strengths in some areas offset by weaknesses.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman-B Score
6.84
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
4/9
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score
-5.72
Bankruptcy prob: 0.3%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
A-
Score: 69.3/100
Earnings Quality
100/100
OCF/NI: 1.47x
Accruals: -2.8%
The Altman-B Score replaces the traditional Z-Score for banks and financial institutions. It weights equity-to-assets, return on assets, retained earnings, market value coverage, and cash reserves — metrics that better capture bank solvency than manufacturing-oriented ratios. JCAP scores 6.84, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 3.0, distress < 1.5). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. JCAP scores 4/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. JCAP's implied 0.3% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. JCAP receives an estimated rating of A- (score: 69.3/100). The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). JCAP's score of 100/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
5.96x
PEG
0.01x
P/S
1.51x
P/B
2.17x
P/FCF
5.90x
P/OCF
5.89x
EV/EBITDA
14.31x
EV/Revenue
5.70x
EV/EBIT
14.58x
EV/FCF
15.10x
Earnings Yield
11.57%
FCF Yield
16.94%
Shareholder Yield
8.50%
Graham Number
$20.70
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 6.0x earnings, JCAP trades at a deep value multiple. An earnings yield of 11.6% exceeds typical risk-free rates, suggesting equities are being compensated for risk. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $20.70 per share, suggesting a potential 20% margin of safety at the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.780
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.845
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.391
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.230
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
4.384
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
26.0%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. JCAP's ROE of 26.0% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 4.38x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$18.91
Price/Value
1.02x
Margin of Safety
-1.72%
Premium
1.72%
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with JCAP's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR — what the company actually delivered, not what analysts hope for. JCAP trades at a 2% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $18.91, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 6.0x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 229 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$17.29
Median 1Y
$15.45
5th Pctile
$8.57
95th Pctile
$27.82
Ann. Volatility
35.4%
Analyst Target
$25.00
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Executive Compensation

C-suite compensation breakdown including salary, stock awards, options, and incentive pay. The CEO-to-employee pay ratio and Gini coefficient measure pay distribution fairness.

C-Suite Compensation

ExecutiveSalaryStockTotal
David Burton
President and Chief Executive Officer
$765,769 $— $3,795,973
Mark Zellmann U.S.
ident of U.S. Business Lines
$325,009 $— $1,062,184
Penelope Person Commercial
ercial Officer
$142,000 $— $633,060

CEO Pay Ratio

Insufficient data for pay ratio.

C-Suite Pay Equality (Gini)

CEO Compensation Mix

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
Revenue / Employee
Rev: $613,289,000
Profit / Employee
NI: $187,965,000
SGA / Employee
Avg labor cost proxy

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
ROE 12.5% 22.5% 26.0% 25.97%
ROA 2.9% 5.2% 5.9% 5.92%
ROIC -4.3% -0.9% 2.3% 2.32%
ROCE 3.9% 6.7% 10.5% 10.50%
Gross Margin 79.0% 66.6% 61.8% 61.84%
Operating Margin -56.7% 46.4% 45.4% 45.45%
Net Margin 31.2% 25.4% 21.3% 21.33%
EBITDA Margin 40.7% 30.8% 46.8% 46.76%
FCF Margin 51.4% 46.6% 37.7% 37.73%
OCF Margin 51.7% 46.8% 37.8% 37.84%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 2.28%
Cash ROA snapshot only 8.70%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 8.48%
CROIC snapshot only 8.46%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 10.34%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 33.02%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 16.72%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio 1.07 4.07 8.65 5.956
P/S Ratio 0.34 1.15 2.23 1.509
P/B Ratio 0.13 0.91 2.25 2.170
P/FCF 0.65 2.47 5.90 5.903
P/OCF 0.65 2.46 5.89 5.887
EV/EBITDA 19.49 13.90 14.31 14.312
EV/Revenue 7.93 4.97 5.70 5.697
EV/EBIT 19.89 14.24 14.58 14.578
EV/FCF 15.42 10.67 15.10 15.100
Earnings Yield 93.1% 24.6% 11.6% 11.57%
FCF Yield 1.5% 40.4% 16.9% 16.94%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.007
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 2.597
EV/OCF snapshot only 15.059
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 8.280
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 43.012
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 8.50%
Graham Number snapshot only $20.70
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio 20.16 20.16 0.20 0.199
Quick Ratio 20.16 20.16 0.20 0.199
Debt/Equity 3.12 3.12 3.60 3.598
Net Debt/Equity 3.03 3.03 3.50 3.498
Debt/Assets 0.72 0.72 0.82 0.821
Debt/EBITDA 19.23 11.00 8.97 8.966
Net Debt/EBITDA 18.66 10.68 8.72 8.718
Interest Coverage 0.00 0.00 0.002
Equity Multiplier 4.32 4.32 4.38 4.384
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.159
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 0.002
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.028
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.106
Defensive Interval snapshot only 2743.8 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.09 0.18 0.23 0.230
Inventory Turnover
Receivables Turnover (trade) 8.89 17.67 16.81 16.808
Payables Turnover 1.57 1.572
DSO (trade) 41 21 22 21.7 days
DIO 0 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 0 0 232 232.1 days
Cash Conversion Cycle (trade) 41 21 -210 -210.4 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 89.667
Cash Velocity snapshot only 10.094
Capital Intensity snapshot only 4.349
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability
Earnings Stability
Margin Stability
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence
Earnings Smoothness
ROE Trend
Gross Margin Trend
FCF Margin Trend
Sustainable Growth Rate 8.2% 14.1% 19.3% 19.26%
Internal Growth Rate 1.9% 3.4% 4.6% 4.60%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.66 1.65 1.47 1.469
FCF/OCF 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.997
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.465
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.950
CapEx/Revenue 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.10%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.145
Accruals Ratio -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.028
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.004
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 5.597
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 1.000
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 32.1% 9.1% 3.0% 4.16%
Dividend/Share $5.78 $1.56 $0.57 $0.72
Payout Ratio 34.5% 37.1% 25.8% 25.83%
FCF Payout Ratio 20.9% 22.6% 17.6% 17.64%
Total Payout Ratio 34.5% 37.1% 73.5% 73.48%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 5.51%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 5.51%
Total Shareholder Return 32.1% 9.1% 8.5% 8.50%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.77 0.80 0.78 0.780
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.02 1.01 0.84 0.845
EBIT Margin 0.40 0.35 0.39 0.391
Asset Turnover 0.09 0.18 0.23 0.230
Equity Multiplier 4.32 4.32 4.38 4.384
Per Share
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $16.76 $4.20 $2.22 $2.22
Book Value/Share $134.55 $18.67 $8.56 $7.97
Tangible Book/Share $110.66 $15.35 $7.40 $7.40
Revenue/Share $53.71 $14.81 $8.63 $11.42
FCF/Share $27.61 $6.90 $3.26 $4.60
OCF/Share $27.75 $6.93 $3.27 $4.62
Cash/Share $12.49 $1.73 $0.86 $0.47
EBITDA/Share $21.85 $5.30 $3.44 $3.44
Debt/Share $420.23 $58.30 $30.82 $30.82
Net Debt/Share $407.75 $56.57 $29.96 $29.96
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
Altman-B Score 6.839
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 1.362
Piotroski F-Score 4 4 4 4
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -5.723
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-27.91
EVA snapshot only $-164573156.24
Credit
Metric Trend Q2'25 Q3'25 Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only A-
Credit Score 83.40 86.79 69.30 69.301
Credit Grade snapshot only 7
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 175.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 56
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 61

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms