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KG NASDAQ

Kestrel Group, Ltd.
1W: -4.0% 1M: -3.8% 3M: -1.9% YTD: +14.8% 1Y: -60.0%
$11.68
+0.68 (+6.18%)
Pre-Market: $11.98 (+0.30, +2.61%)
Weekly Expected Move ±12.3%
$9 $10 $12 $13 $15
NASDAQ · Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance · Alpha Radar Neutral · Power 52 · $91.4M mcap · 3M float · 0.373% daily turnover · Short 30% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
45.5 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: -6.4%
Cost Advantage
48
Intangibles
51
Switching Cost
60
Network Effect
14
Scale
40
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. KG shows a Weak competitive edge (45.5/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. Negative ROIC of -6.4% indicates the company is currently destroying value, though this may reflect a growth investment phase.

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

A-
Jun 12, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
5
ROA
5
D/E
1
P/E
4
P/B
4
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. KG receives an overall rating of A-. Strongest factors: ROE (5/5), ROA (5/5), P/E (4/5), P/B (4/5). Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), D/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-03-16 B+ A-
2026-01-14 C B+
2026-01-03 C- C

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

21 Grade D
Profitability
20
Balance Sheet
32
Earnings Quality
58
Growth
Value
33
Momentum
Safety
50
Cash Flow
30
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. KG scores highest in Earnings Quality (58/100) and lowest in Profitability (20/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman-I Score
2.15
Grey Zone
Piotroski F-Score
1/9
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score
-3.95
Bankruptcy prob: 1.9%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
B
Score: 29.3/100
Earnings Quality
OCF/NI: 3.29x
Accruals: 10.5%
The Altman-I Score is adapted for insurance companies, emphasizing return on equity, tangible net worth, and cash reserves alongside the standard equity and earnings components. KG scores 2.15, placing it in the Grey Zone (safe > 3.0, distress < 1.5). Financial distress is possible and warrants monitoring. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. KG scores 1/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. KG's implied 1.9% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. KG receives an estimated rating of B (score: 29.3/100).

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
2.28x
PEG
0.00x
P/S
2.22x
P/B
0.75x
P/FCF
-1.01x
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
-15.71x
EV/Revenue
11.92x
EV/EBIT
-15.93x
EV/FCF
-2.94x
Earnings Yield
-30.08%
FCF Yield
-98.90%
Shareholder Yield
0.58%
Graham Number
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 2.3x earnings, KG trades at a deep value multiple.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
1.077
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
1.531
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
-0.748
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.037
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
4.278
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-19.6%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. KG's ROE of -19.6% is driven by financial leverage (equity multiplier: 4.28x). Note: high leverage means ROE is amplified by debt rather than operational performance. A tax burden ratio of 1.08 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
Price/Value
Margin of Safety
Premium
Assessment
Overvalued

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 274 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$11.68
Median 1Y
$3.69
5th Pctile
$0.90
95th Pctile
$15.09
Ann. Volatility
85.4%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
ROE -13.8% -19.6% -19.63%
ROA -3.2% -4.6% -4.59%
ROIC -4.5% -6.4% -6.42%
ROCE -2.2% -2.8% -2.78%
Gross Margin 55.5% 77.9% 77.88%
Operating Margin -1.6% -68.2% -68.15%
Net Margin -1.7% -72.9% -72.90%
EBITDA Margin -1.2% -29.8% -29.84%
FCF Margin -6.6% -4.1% -4.06%
OCF Margin -6.6% -4.1% -4.06%
ROIC Economic snapshot only -6.07%
Cash ROA snapshot only -15.09%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -28.77%
CROIC snapshot only -28.77%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only -90.55%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -1.15%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio -4.47 -3.32 2.282
P/S Ratio 7.77 4.10 2.216
P/B Ratio 0.62 0.65 0.746
P/FCF -1.17 -1.01 -1.011
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA -19.20 -15.71 -15.711
EV/Revenue 23.39 11.92 11.923
EV/EBIT -19.54 -15.93 -15.930
EV/FCF -3.53 -2.94 -2.937
Earnings Yield -22.4% -30.1% -30.08%
FCF Yield -85.4% -98.9% -98.90%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.003
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 0.704
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 17.886
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.58%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Debt/Equity 1.38 1.38 1.376
Net Debt/Equity 1.24 1.24 1.243
Debt/Assets 0.32 0.32 0.322
Debt/EBITDA -14.18 -11.40 -11.397
Net Debt/EBITDA -12.82 -10.30 -10.303
Interest Coverage -2.90 -1.88 -1.882
Equity Multiplier 4.28 4.28 4.278
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only -1.908
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.096
FCF to Debt snapshot only -0.469
Defensive Interval snapshot only 174.4 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.037
Inventory Turnover
Receivables Turnover 14.10 28.18 28.178
Payables Turnover
DSO 26 13 13.0 days
DIO 0 0 0.0 days
DPO 0 0
Cash Conversion Cycle 26 13
Cash Velocity snapshot only 1.204
Capital Intensity snapshot only 26.899
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability
Earnings Stability
Margin Stability
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence
Earnings Smoothness
ROE Trend
Gross Margin Trend
FCF Margin Trend
Sustainable Growth Rate
Internal Growth Rate
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 3.81 3.29 3.288
FCF/OCF 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 3.288
CapEx/Revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Accruals Ratio 0.09 0.11 0.105
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.002
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Payout Ratio
FCF Payout Ratio
Total Payout Ratio
Div. Increase Streak
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.6% 0.58%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.6% 0.58%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.6% 0.58%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.08 1.08 1.077
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.35 1.53 1.531
EBIT Margin -1.20 -0.75 -0.748
Asset Turnover 0.02 0.04 0.037
Equity Multiplier 4.28 4.28 4.278
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-2.29 $-3.25 $-3.25
Book Value/Share $16.57 $16.55 $15.66
Tangible Book/Share $15.36 $15.34 $15.34
Revenue/Share $1.32 $2.63 $5.32
FCF/Share $-8.74 $-10.68 $-11.06
OCF/Share $-8.74 $-10.68 $-11.06
Cash/Share $2.19 $2.19 $8.02
EBITDA/Share $-1.61 $-2.00 $-2.00
Debt/Share $22.79 $22.76 $22.76
Net Debt/Share $20.60 $20.58 $20.58
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Altman-I Score 2.150
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 0.240
Piotroski F-Score 1 1 1
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -3.946
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -86.41%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-51.96
EVA snapshot only $-47251869.90
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only B
Credit Score 29.43 29.33 29.335
Credit Grade snapshot only 15
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 750.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 0
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 16

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms