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Also trades as: USARW (NASDAQ) · $vol 1M

USAR NASDAQ

USA Rare Earth Inc
1W: -2.2% 1M: -4.4% 3M: +41.0% YTD: +71.7% 1Y: +157.9%
$25.30
+1.01 (+4.16%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±15.8%
$17 $21 $24 $28 $32
NASDAQ · Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · Alpha Radar Buy · Power 61 · $2.4B mcap · 69M float · 22.61% daily turnover · Short 52% of daily vol

Edge Score

Quantitative competitive moat analysis scoring five pillars of durable advantage — cost leadership, brand intangibles, switching costs, network effects, and efficient scale — using industry percentile rankings on a 0–100 scale.

WEAK EDGE
52.2 / 100
NoneWeakNarrowWide
Primary source: Switching Costs  ·  ROIC: 59.3%
Cost Advantage
37
Intangibles
40
Switching Cost
79
Network Effect
40
Scale
60
The Edge Score quantifies a company's competitive moat using five pillars: Cost Advantage (20%, operating margin and SG&A efficiency vs industry peers), Intangible Assets (25%, gross margin premium, R&D intensity, brand pricing power), Switching Costs (25%, revenue stability, earnings consistency, customer retention proxied by operating leverage), Network Effects (15%, revenue growth with expanding margins, market share dominance), and Efficient Scale (15%, market concentration, ROIC sustainability). Each pillar is scored 0–100 using industry percentile rankings, then weighted into a composite. Wide ≥ 70, Narrow ≥ 55, Weak ≥ 40, None < 40. USAR shows a Weak competitive edge (52.2/100) — limited structural advantages that may face competitive pressure. The primary source of advantage is Switching Costs. ROIC of 59.3% confirms the company is generating returns well above its cost of capital — a hallmark of durable competitive advantages.

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$33
Low
$33
Avg Target
$40
High
Based on 11 analyst ratings (12 mo)
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 4Hold: 0Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$32.67
Analysts6
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-05-12 Wedbush Sam Brandeis $29 $35 +6 +35.0% $25.92
2026-04-23 Northland Securities Initiated $45 +77.1% $25.41
2026-04-21 Canaccord Genuity $33 $32 -1 +41.7% $22.58
2026-04-20 Roth Capital $25 $30 +5 +37.9% $21.76
2026-04-20 Wedbush Initiated $29 +45.4% $19.95
2026-04-09 Roth Capital $35 $25 -10 +49.5% $16.72
2026-01-30 Cantor Fitzgerald Derek Soderberg Initiated $35 +58.6% $22.07
2026-01-27 Canaccord Genuity $22 $33 +11 +23.5% $26.72
2026-01-26 Roth Capital Suji Desilva $40 $35 -5 +31.0% $26.72
2025-10-10 Roth Capital Suji Desilva Initiated $40 +26.1% $31.73
2025-09-30 Canaccord Genuity Initiated $22 +25.4% $17.54

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C+
May 22, 2026
DCF
3
ROE
1
ROA
1
D/E
3
P/E
1
P/B
3
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. USAR receives an overall rating of C+. Areas of concern: ROE (1/5), ROA (1/5), P/E (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-05-18 C- C+
2026-05-13 C C-
2026-04-01 C+ C
2026-02-27 C C+
2026-02-20 D+ C
2026-01-14 C D+

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

44 Grade D
Profitability
0
Balance Sheet
0
Earnings Quality
59
Growth
Value
42
Momentum
Safety
100
Cash Flow
56
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. USAR scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Profitability (0/100). A grade of D flags significant fundamental concerns across multiple dimensions.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
9.31
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
3/9
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score
-6.16
Bankruptcy prob: 0.2%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
A-
Score: 67.6/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
OCF/NI: 0.14x
Accruals: -11.1%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. USAR scores 9.31, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. USAR scores 3/9, suggesting weak financial fundamentals — the company fails the majority of these accounting tests. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. USAR's implied 0.2% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. USAR receives an estimated rating of A- (score: 67.6/100), with a improving trend.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
-11.94x
PEG
0.19x
P/S
333.08x
P/B
2.65x
P/FCF
63.90x
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
-12.01x
EV/Revenue
8.18x
EV/EBIT
-11.82x
EV/FCF
56.21x
Earnings Yield
-14.00%
FCF Yield
1.56%
Shareholder Yield
0.38%
Graham Number
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. USAR currently has negative earnings — the P/E ratio is not meaningful.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
4.149
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.453
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
-0.692
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.099
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.466
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
-31.8%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. USAR's ROE of -31.8% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.099), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue. A tax burden ratio of 4.15 indicates minimal tax leakage — the company retains over 90% of pre-tax earnings.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
Price/Value
Margin of Safety
Premium
Assessment
Overvalued

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 300 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$25.30
Median 1Y
$12.45
5th Pctile
$1.33
95th Pctile
$115.11
Ann. Volatility
139.9%
Analyst Target
$32.67
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
132
+355.2% YoY
Revenue / Employee
$12,447
Rev: $1,643,000
Profit / Employee
$-2,254,235
NI: $-297,559,000
SGA / Employee
$326,780
Avg labor cost proxy
R&D / Employee
$120,341
Innovation spend

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
ROE 2.5% -4.3% -11.7% -59.1% -31.8% -31.80%
ROA 0.9% -1.6% -4.3% -42.8% -12.9% -12.90%
ROIC -0.2% -0.3% 1.1% -1.2% 59.3% 59.28%
ROCE 0.9% -1.6% -1.9% -20.2% -33.7% -33.69%
Gross Margin 81.5% -47.4% -35.1% -35.06%
Operating Margin 57.8% -15.9% -6.4% -6.44%
Net Margin -50.1% -30.6% -11.8% -11.76%
EBITDA Margin -5.0% -15.3% -6.1% -6.07%
FCF Margin 45.5% 28.7% 14.6% 14.55%
OCF Margin -6.7% -15.6% -17.9% -17.86%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 17.25%
Cash ROA snapshot only -8.22%
Cash ROIC snapshot only -39.36%
CROIC snapshot only 32.08%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 26.90%
Pretax Margin snapshot only -31.37%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 8.89%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 20.68%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 1.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
P/E Ratio 9.52 -11.20 -7.13 -5.92 -7.14 -11.938
P/S Ratio 5.64 5.61 9.30 333.084
P/B Ratio 0.23 0.48 0.83 3.50 5.91 2.646
P/FCF -36.89 -41.40 12.41 19.52 63.90 63.905
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA 69.65 -45.58 -45.94 -10.68 -12.01 -12.014
EV/Revenue 15.62 4.47 8.18 8.181
EV/EBIT 69.74 -45.45 -45.70 -10.56 -11.82 -11.821
EV/FCF -269.86 -168.44 34.34 15.55 56.21 56.212
Earnings Yield 10.5% -8.9% -14.0% -16.9% -14.0% -14.00%
FCF Yield -2.7% -2.4% 8.1% 5.1% 1.6% 1.56%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.189
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 9.925
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 10.391
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 24.029
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.38%
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Current Ratio 1.17 1.17 1.17 10.17 10.17 10.165
Quick Ratio 1.17 1.17 1.17 9.68 9.68 9.676
Debt/Equity 1.47 1.47 1.47 0.00 0.00 0.004
Net Debt/Equity 1.47 1.47 1.47 -0.71 -0.71 -0.712
Debt/Assets 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.00 0.003
Debt/EBITDA 60.13 -34.38 -29.34 -0.01 -0.01 -0.008
Net Debt/EBITDA 60.13 -34.38 -29.34 2.73 1.64 1.644
Interest Coverage 595.05 -918.51 -1078.72 -1342.56 -18446.42 -18446.417
Equity Multiplier 2.72 2.72 2.72 1.38 1.38 1.381
Cash Ratio snapshot only 9.494
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only -18149.917
Cash to Debt snapshot only 194.659
FCF to Debt snapshot only 25.175
Defensive Interval snapshot only 928.7 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.45 0.10 0.099
Inventory Turnover 3.25 7.34 7.338
Receivables Turnover 0.00 0.00 2.69 83.46 5.34 5.340
Payables Turnover 0.00 0.00 4.70 5.45 5.82 5.818
DSO 136 4 68 68.3 days
DIO 0 112 50 49.7 days
DPO 78 67 63 62.7 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 58 50 55 55.4 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 3.686
Operating Cycle snapshot only 118.1 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 0.889
Capital Intensity snapshot only 2.173
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue
Net Income -9.0% -9.03%
EPS -4.4% -4.40%
FCF 4.5% 4.48%
EBITDA -5.2% -5.20%
Op. Income 13.5% 13.49%
OCF Growth snapshot only -4.53%
Asset Growth snapshot only -87.94%
Equity Growth snapshot only -76.21%
Debt Growth snapshot only -99.94%
Shares Change snapshot only 1.36%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Revenue Stability
Earnings Stability
Margin Stability
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.500
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence
Earnings Smoothness
ROE Trend
Gross Margin Trend
FCF Margin Trend
Sustainable Growth Rate 2.5%
Internal Growth Rate 0.9%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
OCF/Net Income -0.20 0.20 0.09 0.16 0.14 0.137
FCF/OCF 1.30 1.35 -6.74 -1.84 -0.82 -0.815
FCF/Net Income snapshot only -0.112
CapEx/Revenue 16.8% 24.3% 35.0% 35.03%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 31.485
Accruals Ratio 0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.36 -0.11 -0.111
Sloan Accruals snapshot only 0.101
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only -0.463
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.00%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.11 $0.08 $0.06 $0.00
Payout Ratio 0.0%
FCF Payout Ratio 8.0% 12.6% 24.5% 24.48%
Total Payout Ratio 0.0%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% -8.2% -22.8% -62.2% -62.22%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% -7.6% -22.2% -61.8% -61.84%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.00 1.00 -3.50 -14.89 4.15 4.149
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.00 1.00 -0.66 -0.15 0.45 0.453
EBIT Margin -0.34 -0.42 -0.69 -0.692
Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.45 0.10 0.099
Equity Multiplier 2.72 2.72 2.72 1.38 2.47 2.466
Per Share
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.62 $-0.98 $-2.41 $-2.01 $-2.12 $-2.12
Book Value/Share $25.46 $22.80 $20.62 $3.40 $2.56 $9.61
Tangible Book/Share $11.68 $10.46 $9.46 $2.02 $1.53 $1.53
Revenue/Share $0.00 $0.00 $3.05 $2.12 $1.63 $0.04
FCF/Share $-0.16 $-0.26 $1.39 $0.61 $0.24 $-0.67
OCF/Share $-0.12 $-0.20 $-0.21 $-0.33 $-0.29 $-0.29
Cash/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.43 $1.83 $8.90
EBITDA/Share $0.62 $-0.98 $-1.04 $-0.89 $-1.11 $-1.11
Debt/Share $37.52 $33.60 $30.38 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Net Debt/Share $37.52 $33.60 $30.38 $-2.42 $-1.82 $-1.82
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Altman Z-Score 9.314
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 17.423
Piotroski F-Score 2 2 2 2 3 3
Beneish M-Score
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -6.164
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only -50.98%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $0.99
EVA snapshot only $71514760.00
Credit
Metric Trend Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only A-
Credit Score 43.53 25.89 26.77 68.98 67.59 67.586
Credit Grade snapshot only 7
Credit Trend snapshot only 24.056
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 175.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 65
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 59

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms