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ZGN NYSE

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
1W: +5.3% 1M: +11.1% 3M: +16.6% YTD: +28.0% 1Y: +57.8% 3Y: +11.2%
$13.30
-0.05 (-0.37%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±6.4%
$11 $12 $13 $13 $14
NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Manufacturers · Alpha Radar Buy · Power 71 · $3.6B mcap · 73M float · 1.02% daily turnover · Short 67% of daily vol

Analyst Insights

Wall Street analyst consensus based on price targets and buy/sell/hold recommendations from institutional research coverage over the trailing 12 months.

Analyst Price Targets
$14
Low
$14
Avg Target
$14
High
Based on 1 analyst since Mar 20, 2026 earnings
Analyst Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0Buy: 3Hold: 2Sell: 0Strong Sell: 0
Rating Summary
ConsensusBuy
Avg Target$14.50
Analysts1
Consensus Change History
DateFieldFromTo
2026-05-21 consensus Hold Buy
2026-05-04 consensus Buy Hold
Price Target Change History
DateFirmAnalystOldNewChangeUpside @ CallStock@Call
2026-05-01 UBS Chris Huang $12 $14 +3 +19.6% $12.12
2026-02-12 Morgan Stanley Natasha Bonnet Initiated $11 +1.8% $10.81
2026-02-05 UBS $10 $12 +2 +18.4% $9.71
2025-11-25 Bernstein Initiated $13 +26.0% $10.32
2025-10-24 UBS Chris Huang $9 $10 +1 -4.1% $10.43
2025-10-13 Jefferies Bhumi Kanabar Initiated $13 +47.3% $8.76
2025-09-17 Oddo BHF Initiated $12 +23.0% $9.35
2024-12-02 BNP Paribas Anthony Charchafji Initiated $8 +0.8% $7.84
2024-10-23 UBS Susy Tibaldi $14 $9 -5 +12.5% $8.00
2024-10-23 Goldman Sachs Louise Singlehurst $19 $14 -4 +77.5% $8.00
2024-09-22 Bank of America Securities Ashley Wallace Initiated $10 +15.7% $8.47
2024-04-09 UBS Susy Tibaldi $11 $14 +3 +15.0% $12.17
2024-01-11 Goldman Sachs Louise Singlehurst Initiated $19 +70.0% $11.00
2022-04-29 UBS Initiated $11 +7.4% $10.24

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

B+
May 22, 2026
DCF
4
ROE
4
ROA
4
D/E
2
P/E
2
P/B
2
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. ZGN receives an overall rating of B+. Strongest factors: DCF (4/5), ROE (4/5), ROA (4/5). Areas of concern: D/E (2/5), P/E (2/5), P/B (2/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-05-20 B B+
2026-05-18 B+ B
2026-05-04 A- B+
2026-04-30 B+ A-
2026-04-21 A- B+
2026-04-21 B+ A-
2026-04-17 A- B+
2026-04-01 B A-
2026-03-30 B+ B
2026-03-02 A- B+

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

Grade A
Profitability
48
Balance Sheet
62
Earnings Quality
62
Growth
52
Value
Momentum
79
Safety
Cash Flow
69

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
Piotroski F-Score
7/9
Beneish M-Score
-3.04
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-7.46
Bankruptcy prob: 0.1%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
A-
Score: 67.2/100
Trend: Deteriorating
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 3.54x
Accruals: -15.9%
The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. ZGN scores 7/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. ZGN's score of -3.04 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. ZGN's implied 0.1% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. ZGN receives an estimated rating of A- (score: 67.2/100), with a deteriorating trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). ZGN's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
30.93x
PEG
1.60x
P/S
1.61x
P/B
2.95x
P/FCF
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenue
EV/EBIT
EV/FCF
Earnings Yield
FCF Yield
Shareholder Yield
Graham Number
$7.57
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 30.9x earnings, ZGN commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $7.57 per share, 76% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.649
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.780
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.090
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
1.377
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.994
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
18.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. ZGN's ROE of 18.7% is driven by Asset Turnover (1.377), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Adj. Growth Rate
0.00%
Fair P/E
8.50x
Intrinsic Value
$5.59
Price/Value
Margin of Safety
Premium
Assessment
Overvalued
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with ZGN's realized 0.0% 3-year EPS CAGR — what the company actually delivered, not what analysts hope for. ZGN trades at a premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $5.59, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 8.5x compares to the current market P/E of 30.9x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1110 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$13.30
Median 1Y
$12.98
5th Pctile
$6.59
95th Pctile
$25.78
Ann. Volatility
40.9%
Analyst Target
$14.50
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical Analyst target

Workforce & Productivity

Workforce efficiency metrics measuring revenue, profit, and R&D spend per employee — key indicators of operational leverage and human capital productivity.

Employees
300
-7.7% YoY
Revenue / Employee
$6,137,634
Rev: $1,841,290,265
Profit / Employee
$315,637
NI: $94,691,233
SGA / Employee
$2,892,279
Avg labor cost proxy

Scaling Efficiency

All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
ROE -27.3% -25.0% -16.6% -9.8% 24.0% 25.5% 24.9% 24.5% 18.7% 18.74%
ROA -6.7% -6.1% -4.6% -2.7% 6.6% 7.0% 7.6% 7.4% 6.3% 6.26%
ROIC -14.3% -7.3% -0.1% -28.3% 19.0% 19.7% 17.4% 14.8% 13.9% 13.91%
ROCE 4.1% 8.6% 14.7% 22.6% 21.8% 22.0% 20.7% 17.9% 16.6% 16.62%
Gross Margin 40.7% 61.6% 62.7% 64.2% 64.4% 66.4% 66.8% 67.5% 56.0% 56.01%
Operating Margin -22.7% 10.6% 10.3% 13.5% 9.2% 7.6% 9.5% 6.6% 9.5% 9.53%
Net Margin -23.7% 1.9% 4.9% 5.1% 7.5% 2.6% 5.3% 4.6% 5.6% 5.61%
EBITDA Margin -30.4% 22.7% 13.8% 17.0% 13.9% 12.2% 14.5% 11.9% 21.9% 21.92%
FCF Margin 20.4% 10.8% 10.9% 10.4% 9.3% 10.4% 10.3% 9.8% 11.2% 11.25%
OCF Margin 10.2% 6.9% 9.9% 10.5% 12.4% 14.2% 14.4% 14.3% 16.1% 16.07%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 3.43%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 1.92%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 4.25%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 12.33%
Cash ROA snapshot only 21.87%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 36.19%
CROIC snapshot only 25.33%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 6.18%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 7.00%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 55.14%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.27%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
P/E Ratio 30.930
P/S Ratio 1.610
P/B Ratio 2.946
P/FCF
P/OCF
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenue
EV/EBIT
EV/FCF
Earnings Yield
FCF Yield
PEG Ratio snapshot only 1.598
Graham Number snapshot only $7.57
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Current Ratio 1.97 1.97 1.48 1.48 1.27 1.27 1.41 1.41 1.59 1.586
Quick Ratio 1.49 1.49 1.01 1.01 0.76 0.76 0.80 0.80 0.91 0.911
Debt/Equity 1.77 1.77 1.35 1.35 1.19 1.19 1.13 1.13 0.95 0.948
Net Debt/Equity 0.44 0.44 0.49 0.49 0.73 0.73 0.81 0.81 0.66 0.661
Debt/Assets 0.43 0.43 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.34 0.345
Debt/EBITDA -5.07 -23.84 15.03 4.26 1.77 1.93 1.87 2.03 1.67 1.668
Net Debt/EBITDA -1.27 -5.96 5.49 1.56 1.08 1.18 1.34 1.45 1.16 1.163
Interest Coverage 11.18 23.09 14.67 22.61 42.04 42.42 20.01 9.74 5.64 5.643
Equity Multiplier 4.09 4.09 3.57 3.57 3.29 3.29 3.09 3.09 2.75 2.749
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.394
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 9.550
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.303
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.444
Defensive Interval snapshot only 94.4 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Asset Turnover 0.28 0.58 0.90 1.27 1.30 1.39 1.46 1.47 1.38 1.377
Inventory Turnover 1.21 2.04 2.37 3.16 2.89 2.99 2.85 2.81 2.69 2.689
Receivables Turnover 4.32 8.86 12.33 17.42 16.95 18.11 18.08 18.20 16.50 16.499
Payables Turnover 2.31 3.88 4.42 5.88 5.67 5.87 5.67 5.58 5.35 5.351
DSO 85 41 30 21 22 20 20 20 22 22.1 days
DIO 301 179 154 116 126 122 128 130 136 135.8 days
DPO 158 94 83 62 64 62 64 65 68 68.2 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 228 126 101 74 83 80 84 85 90 89.7 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 4.467
Operating Cycle snapshot only 157.9 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 13.042
Capital Intensity snapshot only 0.735
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Revenue 3.9% 1.6% 76.3% 25.5% 13.5% 13.51%
Net Income 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 3.9% 1.3% 1.30%
EPS 1.8% 2.2% 2.7% 3.8% -1.7% -1.70%
FCF 1.2% 1.4% 66.7% 18.4% 37.4% 37.43%
EBITDA 3.7% 12.5% 8.1% 1.4% 3.8% 3.83%
Op. Income 3.4% 5.6% 482.0% 1.6% -12.9% -12.92%
OCF Growth snapshot only 46.91%
Asset Growth snapshot only 2.40%
Equity Growth snapshot only 22.64%
Debt Growth snapshot only -1.91%
Shares Change snapshot only 3.04%
Dividend Growth snapshot only 29.16%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Revenue Stability 0.86 0.856
Earnings Stability 0.75 0.755
Margin Stability 0.76 0.763
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Earnings Persistence 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness 0.99 0.987
ROE Trend 0.20 0.204
Gross Margin Trend 0.12 0.121
FCF Margin Trend -0.04 -0.036
Sustainable Growth Rate 17.5% 19.0% 18.0% 17.6% 12.3% 12.26%
Internal Growth Rate 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 4.3% 4.27%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
OCF/Net Income -0.43 -0.66 -1.92 -4.86 2.44 2.79 2.79 2.82 3.54 3.536
FCF/OCF 2.01 1.56 1.10 0.99 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.69 0.70 0.700
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 2.475
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 1.057
CapEx/Revenue 10.2% 3.9% 1.0% 0.1% 3.1% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.82%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.775
Accruals Ratio -0.10 -0.10 -0.14 -0.16 -0.10 -0.13 -0.14 -0.14 -0.16 -0.159
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.027
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 2.515
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Dividend Yield 1.06%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.09 $0.09 $0.18 $0.19 $0.22 $0.22 $0.23 $0.12
Payout Ratio 27.1% 25.5% 27.9% 28.3% 34.6% 34.55%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 6.8% 14.9% 12.5% 13.9% 14.6% 14.0% 13.96%
Total Payout Ratio 4.2% 4.0% 27.9% 28.3% 34.6% 34.55%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Chowder Number
Buyback Yield
Net Buyback Yield
Total Shareholder Return
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.02 1.32 1.87 -3.73 0.64 0.68 0.66 0.68 0.65 0.649
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) -2.22 -0.76 -0.26 0.05 0.70 0.70 0.73 0.81 0.78 0.780
EBIT Margin 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.090
Asset Turnover 0.28 0.58 0.90 1.27 1.30 1.39 1.46 1.47 1.38 1.377
Equity Multiplier 4.09 4.09 3.57 3.57 3.62 3.62 3.30 3.30 2.99 2.994
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-0.80 $-0.63 $-0.46 $-0.27 $0.67 $0.73 $0.78 $0.77 $0.66 $0.66
Book Value/Share $2.93 $2.52 $2.80 $2.76 $3.25 $3.32 $3.59 $3.59 $3.87 $4.15
Tangible Book/Share $0.86 $0.74 $0.92 $0.91 $1.04 $1.06 $1.18 $1.18 $1.79 $1.79
Revenue/Share $3.37 $5.95 $9.01 $12.54 $13.15 $14.33 $15.09 $15.17 $14.48 $7.21
FCF/Share $0.69 $0.64 $0.98 $1.30 $1.22 $1.48 $1.56 $1.48 $1.63 $0.96
OCF/Share $0.34 $0.41 $0.89 $1.32 $1.63 $2.03 $2.17 $2.16 $2.33 $1.29
Cash/Share $3.90 $3.35 $2.39 $2.36 $1.50 $1.53 $1.16 $1.16 $1.11 $1.12
EBITDA/Share $-1.02 $-0.19 $0.25 $0.87 $2.18 $2.04 $2.17 $2.00 $2.20 $2.20
Debt/Share $5.19 $4.47 $3.77 $3.71 $3.86 $3.94 $4.06 $4.05 $3.67 $3.67
Net Debt/Share $1.30 $1.12 $1.38 $1.36 $2.36 $2.41 $2.90 $2.89 $2.56 $2.56
Per Employee
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Employee Count snapshot only 300
Revenue/Employee snapshot only $12854238.34
Income/Employee snapshot only $584180.65
EBITDA/Employee snapshot only $1953442.83
FCF/Employee snapshot only $1445937.37
Assets/Employee snapshot only $9445005.11
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Altman Z-Score
Piotroski F-Score 3 3 3 3 7 7 7 7 7 7
Beneish M-Score -2.53 -2.58 -2.54 -2.50 -3.04 -3.037
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -7.464
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 26.58%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-2.05
EVA snapshot only $66905693.70
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'21 Q2'22 Q4'22 Q2'23 Q4'23 Q2'24 Q4'24 Q2'25 Q4'25 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only A-
Credit Score 64.17 67.58 58.72 67.49 71.57 71.96 73.34 66.57 67.19 67.190
Credit Grade snapshot only 7
Credit Trend snapshot only -4.383
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 175.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 61
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 61

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms