Australia
+5.8
▲
vs 1w ago (+3.0)
Australia economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+5.8
1 Week Ago
+3.0
Releases (90d)
144
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with ASX 200 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Employment Change +1.84z
- S&P Global Services PMI +1.59z
- Private House Approvals MoM +3.45z
- Inflation Rate MoM +1.93z
- S&P Global Composite PMI +1.47z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Balance of Trade -1.19z
- Building Permits MoM -1.38z
- Gross Domestic Product QoQ -1.35z
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ -0.82z
- Unemployment Rate -1.26z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (144 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Employment Change | 76.3 | 15.0 | +1.844 | Medium | +82.15 |
| 2026-07-23 | S&P Global Services PMI | 53.0 | 50.2 | +1.589 | Medium | +70.76 |
| 2026-07-02 | Balance of Trade | -3.018 | 2.2 | -1.192 | High | -49.02 |
| 2026-07-01 | Private House Approvals MoM | 2.8 | -0.2 | +3.448 | Low | +46.19 |
| 2026-06-24 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.7 | -0.3 | +1.928 | Medium | +43.93 |
| 2026-07-01 | Building Permits MoM | -1.1 | 1.0 | -1.379 | Medium | -36.95 |
| 2026-07-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.6 | 50.1 | +1.469 | Low | +32.73 |
| 2026-07-23 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 51.1 | +0.655 | Medium | +29.20 |
| 2026-06-22 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.2 | 50.0 | +1.340 | Medium | +29.16 |
| 2026-07-23 | Participation Rate | 67.0 | 66.7 | +1.148 | Low | +25.58 |
| 2026-06-25 | Household Spending YoY | 5.5 | 4.1 | +2.191 | Low | +25.56 |
| 2026-06-24 | CPI YoY | 4.0 | 4.3 | +1.873 | Low | +21.34 |
| 2026-06-24 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.0 | 4.4 | +0.924 | Medium | +21.06 |
| 2026-07-16 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 4.7 | 5.5 | +1.052 | Low | +19.93 |
| 2026-06-03 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.3 | 0.5 | -1.354 | Medium | -19.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | +1.158 | Low | +17.41 |
| 2026-06-03 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.817 | High | -17.20 |
| 2026-07-22 | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0.0 | -0.2 | +0.664 | Low | +14.45 |
| 2026-05-21 | Unemployment Rate | 4.5 | 4.3 | -1.263 | Medium | -13.12 |
| 2026-05-27 | Construction Work Done QoQ | 3.4 | 0.8 | +1.096 | Medium | +13.08 |
| 2026-05-20 | S&P Global Services PMI | 47.7 | 49.9 | -1.256 | Medium | -12.75 |
| 2026-07-14 | NAB Business Confidence | -5.0 | -12.0 | +0.213 | High | +11.58 |
| 2026-06-02 | Building Permits MoM | -3.4 | -1.5 | -0.832 | Medium | -11.41 |
| 2026-06-22 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.9 | 49.0 | +0.523 | Medium | +11.38 |
| 2026-06-24 | CPI MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.877 | Low | -10.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ai Group Construction Index | -38.1 | -14.0 | -0.762 | Low | -9.97 |
| 2026-06-24 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.5 | -0.426 | Medium | -9.72 |
| 2026-05-21 | Employment Change | -18.6 | 17.5 | -0.931 | Medium | -9.67 |
| 2026-06-02 | Private House Approvals MoM | -1.0 | 0.2 | -1.379 | Low | -9.45 |
| 2026-06-11 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 5.5 | 6.5 | +1.113 | Low | +9.39 |
| 2026-06-25 | Household Spending MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | +0.795 | Low | +9.28 |
| 2026-07-14 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 83.9 | 82.6 | +0.256 | Medium | +9.27 |
| 2026-05-07 | Balance of Trade | -1.841 | 4.25 | -0.720 | High | -8.12 |
| 2026-05-19 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 83.0 | 79.2 | +0.781 | Medium | +7.75 |
| 2026-06-02 | Company Gross Profits QoQ | -1.3 | 0.5 | -0.556 | Medium | -7.62 |
| 2026-05-19 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 3.5 | -1.1 | +0.508 | High | +7.56 |
| 2026-06-03 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.5 | 2.7 | -0.489 | Medium | -6.86 |
| 2026-05-20 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 47.8 | 50.0 | -1.296 | Low | -6.58 |
| 2026-06-17 | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0.0 | -0.1 | +0.664 | Low | +6.44 |
| 2026-06-03 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.7 | -0.427 | Medium | -5.99 |
| 2026-05-27 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | +0.482 | Medium | +5.75 |
| 2026-06-03 | Housing Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.805 | Low | +5.65 |
| 2026-05-27 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 4.4 | +0.462 | Medium | +5.51 |
| 2026-05-05 | Household Spending YoY | 6.3 | 5.1 | +1.510 | Low | +5.42 |
| 2026-05-13 | Home Loans QoQ | -4.3 | 5.1 | -0.606 | Medium | -5.23 |
| 2026-05-27 | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.877 | Low | +5.23 |
| 2026-07-02 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.4 | 49.8 | +0.355 | Low | +4.86 |
| 2026-06-02 | Business Inventories QoQ | 0.5 | -0.2 | +0.703 | Low | +4.82 |
| 2026-07-02 | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.5 | 49.9 | +0.342 | Low | +4.70 |
| 2026-06-22 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 49.8 | 49.1 | +0.420 | Low | +4.57 |
| 2026-05-20 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 50.6 | -0.441 | Medium | -4.48 |
| 2026-06-09 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.6 | 82.0 | -0.278 | Medium | -4.48 |
| 2026-05-04 | Private House Approvals MoM | 0.9 | -0.2 | +1.264 | Low | +4.43 |
| 2026-05-01 | Producer Price Index QoQ | 0.4 | 0.9 | +0.671 | Medium | +4.39 |
| 2026-05-28 | Household Spending YoY | 4.9 | 5.5 | -0.700 | Low | -4.28 |
| 2026-06-30 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.2 | +0.327 | Low | +4.28 |
| 2026-07-14 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 4.1 | 2.5 | +0.078 | High | +4.22 |
| 2026-05-21 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 5.6 | 6.3 | +0.804 | Low | +4.18 |
| 2026-06-09 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -2.9 | -1.2 | -0.172 | High | -4.16 |
| 2026-06-02 | S&P Global Services PMI | 48.7 | 47.7 | +0.597 | Low | +4.09 |
| 2026-05-27 | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0.0 | -0.3 | +0.664 | Low | +3.96 |
| 2026-06-01 | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | -0.3 | 0.6 | +0.579 | Low | +3.88 |
| 2026-06-01 | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | -0.3 | 0.6 | +0.579 | Low | +3.88 |
| 2026-06-02 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.7 | 47.8 | +0.554 | Low | +3.80 |
| 2026-05-31 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | 50.2 | +0.556 | Low | +3.64 |
| 2026-06-25 | Employment Change | 40.3 | 30.0 | +0.155 | Medium | +3.61 |
| 2026-05-28 | Capital Expenditure QoQ | -3.8 | 1.9 | -0.580 | Low | -3.54 |
| 2026-06-01 | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | 1.8 | -0.4 | +0.524 | Low | +3.51 |
| 2026-05-21 | Full Time Employment Chg | -10.7 | 40.0 | -0.318 | Medium | -3.30 |
| 2026-06-09 | NAB Business Confidence | -14.0 | -22.0 | +0.133 | High | +3.22 |
| 2026-07-01 | Building Permits YoY | 5.3 | 9.5 | -0.216 | Low | -2.89 |
| 2026-06-30 | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | +0.215 | Low | +2.81 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ai Group Industry Index | -30.0 | -26.0 | -0.106 | Medium | -2.78 |
| 2026-04-29 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.6 | 4.8 | +0.423 | Medium | +2.65 |
| 2026-04-30 | Housing Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.805 | Low | +2.57 |
| 2026-05-28 | Household Spending MoM | -1.1 | -0.6 | -0.414 | Low | -2.53 |
| 2026-05-13 | Investment Lending for Homes | -3.0 | 3.6 | -0.277 | Medium | -2.39 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ai Group Manufacturing Index | -16.8 | -22.0 | +0.172 | Low | +2.25 |
| 2026-05-21 | Participation Rate | 66.7 | 66.8 | -0.382 | Low | -1.99 |
| 2026-06-02 | Ai Group Construction Index | -9.9 | -20.0 | +0.223 | Low | +1.53 |
| 2026-06-03 | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | +0.215 | Low | +1.51 |
| 2026-05-01 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.0 | 4.1 | +0.432 | Low | +1.41 |
| 2026-06-02 | Net Exports Contribution to GDP | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.206 | Low | -1.41 |
| 2026-04-29 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.1 | 1.3 | +0.222 | Medium | +1.39 |
| 2026-05-12 | NAB Business Confidence | -24.0 | -32.0 | +0.091 | High | +1.16 |
| 2026-04-30 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.0 | +0.328 | Low | +1.05 |
| 2026-04-30 | Import Prices QoQ | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.316 | Low | -1.01 |
| 2026-06-02 | Ai Group Industry Index | -26.5 | -24.0 | -0.072 | Medium | -0.98 |
| 2026-07-06 | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | -0.2 | -0.6 | +0.064 | Low | +0.95 |
| 2026-04-29 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | +0.301 | Low | +0.94 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.7 | 50.3 | +0.226 | Low | +0.79 |
| 2026-04-29 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 4.2 | +0.242 | Low | +0.76 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ai Group Construction Index | -19.3 | -35.0 | +0.199 | Low | +0.71 |
| 2026-06-02 | Building Permits YoY | 10.2 | 12.9 | -0.102 | Low | -0.70 |
| 2026-04-30 | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | +0.215 | Low | +0.69 |
| 2026-06-30 | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.2 | 8.0 | +0.049 | Low | +0.64 |
| 2026-05-04 | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | -0.8 | 0.9 | -0.180 | Low | -0.63 |
| 2026-05-04 | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | 0.6 | 1.1 | +0.175 | Low | +0.62 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.4 | 50.1 | +0.176 | Low | +0.62 |
| 2026-05-21 | Part Time Employment Chg | -7.9 | -30.0 | +0.117 | Low | +0.61 |
| 2026-05-04 | Building Permits YoY | 9.0 | 13.2 | -0.155 | Low | -0.54 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ai Group Industry Index | -24.4 | -27.0 | +0.066 | Medium | +0.48 |
| 2026-07-01 | Commodity Prices YoY | 16.9 | 18.0 | +0.032 | Low | +0.43 |
| 2026-04-30 | Export Prices QoQ | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.128 | Low | +0.41 |
| 2026-05-05 | Household Spending MoM | 1.6 | 2.0 | -0.099 | Low | -0.36 |
| 2026-06-02 | Ai Group Manufacturing Index | -22.4 | -24.0 | +0.049 | Low | +0.33 |
| 2026-04-30 | Import Price Index QoQ | 0.1 | 0.4 | +0.098 | Low | +0.31 |
| 2026-05-04 | Building Permits MoM | -10.5 | -9.9 | -0.040 | Medium | -0.28 |
| 2026-06-02 | Current Account | -27.1 | -23.0 | -0.040 | Low | -0.28 |
| 2026-04-30 | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.1 | 7.8 | +0.076 | Low | +0.24 |
| 2026-05-01 | Commodity Prices YoY | 15.7 | 18.0 | +0.067 | Low | +0.22 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ai Group Manufacturing Index | -27.9 | -30.0 | +0.051 | Low | +0.18 |
| 2026-06-24 | CPI | 102.09 | 102.5 | +0.015 | Low | +0.17 |
| 2026-06-01 | Commodity Prices YoY | 16.8 | 17.4 | +0.018 | Low | +0.12 |
| 2026-05-27 | CPI | 102.8 | 103.2 | +0.015 | Low | +0.09 |
| 2026-06-04 | Balance of Trade | 1.791 | 1.8 | -0.003 | High | -0.05 |
| 2026-04-29 | CPI | 102.44 | 102.7 | +0.010 | Low | +0.03 |
| 2026-04-29 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Inflation Rate QoQ | 1.4 | 1.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Consumer Price Index | 1.4 | 1.4 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | Interest Rate Decision | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Private House Approvals MoM | 0.9 | 0.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Building Permits MoM | -10.5 | -10.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Building Permits YoY | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wage Price Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wage Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | Consumer Price Index | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-03 | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | Building Permits YoY | 10.2 | 10.2 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | Private House Approvals MoM | -1.0 | -1.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | Building Permits MoM | -3.4 | -3.4 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | Interest Rate Decision | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | Unemployment Rate | 4.4 | 4.4 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | Participation Rate | 66.7 | 66.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | Housing Credit MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | Building Permits MoM | -1.1 | -1.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | Building Permits YoY | 5.3 | 5.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | Private House Approvals MoM | 2.8 | 2.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Unemployment Rate | 4.4 | 4.4 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |