Australia Economic Surprise Index
-3.5 ▼ vs 1w ago (-1.8)
Australia economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-3.5
1 Week Ago
-1.8
Releases (90d)
122
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with ASX 200 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM +0.89z
- Building Permits MoM +3.41z
- Household Spending YoY +3.05z
- Balance of Trade +1.39z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY +1.11z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Ai Group Industry Index -3.17z
- S&P Global Services PMI -1.84z
- Employment Change -1.33z
- S&P Global Composite PMI -1.60z
- Unemployment Rate -0.59z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (122 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Ai Group Industry Index | -24.2 | -4.0 | -3.170 | Medium | -97.58 |
| 2026-10-22 | S&P Global Services PMI | 47.8 | 51.1 | -1.839 | Medium | -81.92 |
| 2026-10-15 | Employment Change | -39.3 | 20.0 | -1.333 | High | -75.79 |
| 2026-09-30 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.891 | High | +35.80 |
| 2026-10-22 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 47.7 | 50.5 | -1.600 | Low | -35.64 |
| 2026-10-15 | Unemployment Rate | 4.7 | 4.6 | -0.592 | High | -33.62 |
| 2026-10-06 | Ai Group Construction Index | -34.5 | -7.0 | -1.742 | Low | -26.80 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.3 | 0.3 | -3.518 | Medium | -23.03 |
| 2026-07-30 | Building Permits MoM | 7.2 | -1.0 | +3.406 | Medium | +21.79 |
| 2026-08-26 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | -1.781 | Medium | -21.26 |
| 2026-09-24 | Unemployment Rate | 4.6 | 4.5 | -0.605 | High | -21.16 |
| 2026-08-26 | Construction Work Done QoQ | -2.1 | 0.5 | -1.726 | Medium | -20.60 |
| 2026-08-27 | Household Spending YoY | 7.0 | 4.4 | +3.046 | Low | +18.61 |
| 2026-10-05 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.4 | 83.4 | -0.588 | Medium | -17.67 |
| 2026-10-05 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -4.7 | -1.2 | -0.360 | High | -16.24 |
| 2026-08-06 | Balance of Trade | 1.929 | -1.1 | +1.386 | High | +15.64 |
| 2026-10-01 | Balance of Trade | 0.495 | 2.0 | -0.379 | High | -15.58 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | +1.108 | Medium | +15.54 |
| 2026-10-22 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 49.4 | +0.346 | Medium | +15.42 |
| 2026-09-24 | Employment Change | 39.5 | 20.0 | +0.438 | High | +15.34 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.3 | +1.063 | Medium | +14.91 |
| 2026-10-15 | Participation Rate | 66.8 | 67.0 | -0.767 | Low | -14.53 |
| 2026-09-02 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.683 | High | +14.38 |
| 2026-08-18 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 88.9 | 81.7 | +1.440 | Medium | +14.28 |
| 2026-09-02 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | +0.965 | Medium | +13.53 |
| 2026-07-29 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | +2.115 | Medium | +13.22 |
| 2026-07-30 | Building Permits YoY | 8.9 | -0.1 | +4.092 | Low | +13.09 |
| 2026-07-29 | Consumer Price Index | 3.6 | 3.7 | +3.573 | Low | +11.17 |
| 2026-08-20 | Employment Change | -15.8 | 15.0 | -0.923 | Medium | -9.59 |
| 2026-10-13 | NAB Business Confidence | -13.0 | -9.0 | -0.165 | High | -8.97 |
| 2026-09-24 | Participation Rate | 67.1 | 66.9 | +0.768 | Low | +8.96 |
| 2026-08-26 | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.3 | -1.438 | Low | -8.58 |
| 2026-09-01 | Private House Approvals MoM | -4.2 | 1.0 | -1.223 | Low | -8.38 |
| 2026-09-30 | CPI YoY | 4.0 | 4.1 | +0.579 | Low | +7.76 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ai Group Industry Index | -3.5 | -32.0 | +0.559 | Medium | +7.67 |
| 2026-09-30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | +0.282 | Medium | +7.56 |
| 2026-08-26 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.632 | Medium | -7.54 |
| 2026-10-08 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 5.3 | 5.0 | -0.440 | Low | -7.09 |
| 2026-09-30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.0 | 4.1 | +0.254 | Medium | +6.81 |
| 2026-09-29 | Household Spending MoM | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.508 | Low | -6.65 |
| 2026-08-20 | Unemployment Rate | 4.5 | 4.4 | -0.618 | Medium | -6.43 |
| 2026-08-18 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 6.0 | -2.6 | +0.408 | High | +6.07 |
| 2026-08-04 | Household Spending MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | +1.525 | Low | +5.47 |
| 2026-08-27 | Household Spending MoM | 1.1 | 0.4 | +0.890 | Low | +5.43 |
| 2026-09-01 | Net Exports Contribution to GDP | 0.1 | -0.4 | +0.786 | Low | +5.39 |
| 2026-08-26 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.5 | -0.441 | Medium | -5.27 |
| 2026-10-06 | Ai Group Manufacturing Index | -8.7 | -16.0 | +0.337 | Low | +5.19 |
| 2026-09-30 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.3 | +0.347 | Low | +4.65 |
| 2026-08-20 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 4.9 | 4.4 | -0.833 | Low | -4.33 |
| 2026-09-29 | Household Spending YoY | 6.8 | 6.4 | +0.322 | Low | +4.22 |
| 2026-08-26 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.0 | 0.8 | -0.352 | Medium | -4.21 |
| 2026-07-29 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.668 | Medium | +4.18 |
| 2026-10-04 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.9 | 51.4 | +0.277 | Low | +4.07 |
| 2026-10-06 | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | 2.2 | -1.3 | +0.264 | Low | +4.06 |
| 2026-09-03 | Balance of Trade | 1.923 | 1.4 | +0.188 | High | +4.05 |
| 2026-09-08 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 84.4 | 85.7 | -0.248 | Medium | -3.99 |
| 2026-08-26 | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.667 | Low | -3.98 |
| 2026-07-29 | CPI YoY | 3.8 | 4.0 | +1.187 | Low | +3.71 |
| 2026-09-30 | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.260 | Low | +3.49 |
| 2026-08-04 | Household Spending YoY | 6.0 | 5.1 | +0.910 | Low | +3.27 |
| 2026-07-29 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 4.0 | +0.521 | Medium | +3.26 |
| 2026-08-03 | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | 1.0 | 0.3 | -0.915 | Low | -3.21 |
| 2026-08-04 | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | 0.8 | -0.1 | +0.883 | Low | +3.17 |
| 2026-08-03 | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | 0.8 | -0.1 | +0.883 | Low | +3.10 |
| 2026-09-07 | ANZ Job Advertisements MoM | 2.5 | 0.5 | +0.392 | Low | +3.09 |
| 2026-07-31 | Housing Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.825 | Low | +2.70 |
| 2026-07-29 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.7 | +0.418 | Medium | +2.61 |
| 2026-08-27 | Capital Expenditure QoQ | 2.1 | -1.8 | +0.423 | Low | +2.58 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ai Group Construction Index | -6.9 | -42.0 | +0.371 | Low | +2.54 |
| 2026-09-10 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 4.9 | 5.1 | +0.287 | Low | +2.43 |
| 2026-10-05 | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | +0.157 | Low | +2.36 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 2.5 | -0.715 | Low | -2.34 |
| 2026-08-31 | Business Inventories QoQ | -0.2 | 0.7 | -0.261 | Low | -1.75 |
| 2026-07-29 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 4.1 | +0.508 | Low | +1.59 |
| 2026-07-31 | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.8 | 0.6 | +0.434 | Low | +1.42 |
| 2026-09-01 | Building Permits MoM | -3.6 | -4.8 | +0.104 | Medium | +1.42 |
| 2026-09-08 | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -5.2 | -3.6 | -0.055 | High | -1.33 |
| 2026-07-29 | Inflation Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0.7 | +0.418 | Low | +1.31 |
| 2026-07-29 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.7 | +0.418 | Low | +1.30 |
| 2026-08-31 | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | -0.186 | Low | -1.25 |
| 2026-09-02 | S&P Global Services PMI | 53.2 | 52.9 | +0.161 | Low | +1.13 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ai Group Manufacturing Index | -19.6 | -14.0 | -0.296 | Low | -1.06 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ai Group Manufacturing Index | -16.6 | -21.0 | +0.155 | Low | +1.06 |
| 2026-07-30 | Private House Approvals MoM | 0.4 | -1.0 | +0.329 | Low | +1.05 |
| 2026-07-30 | Export Prices QoQ | 1.1 | 0.5 | -0.311 | Low | -1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | +0.305 | Low | +0.95 |
| 2026-08-14 | Investment Lending for Homes | -10.2 | -6.4 | -0.090 | Medium | -0.82 |
| 2026-08-31 | TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.098 | Low | -0.66 |
| 2026-08-14 | Home Loans QoQ | -1.9 | -2.3 | +0.061 | Medium | +0.56 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ai Group Industry Index | -29.9 | -27.0 | -0.067 | Medium | -0.48 |
| 2026-09-30 | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.3 | +0.024 | Low | +0.32 |
| 2026-09-01 | Commodity Prices YoY | 15.5 | 14.4 | -0.041 | Low | -0.28 |
| 2026-08-26 | CPI | 103.07 | 102.7 | -0.015 | High | -0.27 |
| 2026-10-01 | Commodity Prices YoY | 15.5 | 15.0 | -0.018 | Low | -0.25 |
| 2026-07-31 | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.5 | 8.2 | +0.073 | Low | +0.24 |
| 2026-08-31 | Company Gross Profits QoQ | 1.8 | 2.0 | -0.016 | Medium | -0.21 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ai Group Construction Index | -40.6 | -36.0 | -0.057 | Low | -0.20 |
| 2026-08-31 | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.5 | -0.024 | Low | -0.16 |
| 2026-09-01 | Current Account | -27.2 | -30.0 | +0.021 | Low | +0.15 |
| 2026-08-04 | Commodity Prices YoY | 15.4 | 15.0 | -0.014 | Low | -0.05 |
| 2026-07-29 | CPI | 102.03 | 102.3 | +0.011 | Low | +0.03 |
| 2026-09-01 | Building Permits YoY | 9.0 | 10.0 | -0.005 | Low | -0.03 |
| 2026-08-06 | Building Permits YoY | 8.9 | 8.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | Private House Approvals MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | Building Permits MoM | 7.2 | 7.2 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | NAB Business Confidence | -6.0 | -6.0 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | Interest Rate Decision | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Wage Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Wage Price Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Participation Rate | 66.9 | 66.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | Housing Credit MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.0 | 52.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | Building Permits MoM | -3.6 | -3.6 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | Building Permits YoY | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | Private House Approvals MoM | -4.2 | -4.2 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | NAB Business Confidence | -8.0 | -8.0 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | Interest Rate Decision | 4.6 | 4.6 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Building Permits YoY | 10.3 | 10.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Building Permits MoM | -6.1 | -6.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Private House Approvals MoM | 3.7 | 3.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |