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Economic Surprises › Canada
Canada +3.1 ▬ vs 1w ago (+3.2)
Canada economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+3.1
1 Week Ago
+3.2
Releases (90d)
121
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with TSX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (121 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-08-27 Current Account 8.8 -2.0 +4.044 Medium +142.99
2026-09-04 Ivey PMI 64.3 56.2 +1.416 High +90.34
2026-09-04 Full Time Employment Chg -35.9 4.0 -2.112 Medium -89.84
2026-07-20 CPI MoM -0.4 -0.2 +1.963 Medium +28.85
2026-08-28 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.787 Medium -28.48
2026-08-12 Building Permits MoM 18.5 0.8 +1.982 Low +24.77
2026-07-24 Wholesale Sales MoM 2.7 -0.2 +2.847 Low +22.94
2026-08-07 Part Time Employment Chg 36.6 4.0 +0.923 Medium +20.56
2026-08-18 Housing Starts 229.1 248.0 -0.690 Medium -19.82
2026-08-28 GDP Implicit Price QoQ 2.5 0.6 +1.027 Low +18.57
2026-09-04 Participation Rate 65.0 65.2 -0.421 Medium -17.92
2026-08-17 New Motor Vehicle Sales 190.2 160.0 +1.261 Low +17.69
2026-09-03 S&P Global Services PMI 46.8 49.0 -0.836 Low -17.37
2026-09-04 Average Hourly Wages YoY 2.0 2.9 -0.745 Low -15.85
2026-07-20 Inflation Rate MoM -0.4 -0.2 +1.030 Medium +15.14
2026-07-15 Capacity Utilization 82.5 80.5 +2.295 Low +15.02
2026-08-28 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.3 0.2 +0.394 Medium +14.24
2026-08-17 CPI MoM 0.5 0.4 -0.491 Medium -13.77
2026-08-04 Imports 73.63 70.2 +1.323 Low +13.74
2026-08-20 Producer Price Index MoM 0.6 -0.4 -0.904 Low -13.59
2026-08-07 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.5 +0.383 High +12.81
2026-07-23 CFIB Business Barometer 58.3 49.9 +1.614 Low +12.71
2026-09-03 Imports 75.37 73.8 +0.576 Low +11.97
2026-09-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.8 48.9 -0.495 Low -10.28
2026-09-04 Part Time Employment Chg -5.8 6.0 -0.223 Medium -9.48
2026-07-16 Housing Starts 239.0 258.0 -0.667 Medium -8.94
2026-08-21 Retail Sales MoM -0.8 -0.5 -0.275 Medium -8.47
2026-06-17 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.3 -0.1 -1.226 Medium -8.40
2026-08-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.2 -0.281 Medium -7.88
2026-07-07 Ivey PMI 56.2 59.1 -0.482 High -7.87
2026-06-19 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 0.3 +1.070 Medium +7.68
2026-07-31 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.3 0.2 +0.394 Medium +7.46
2026-07-24 Producer Price Index MoM -1.4 -0.4 +0.904 Low +7.28
2026-08-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.4 -0.258 Medium -7.23
2026-08-21 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.4 +0.229 Medium +7.06
2026-09-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.0 52.7 +0.176 Medium +6.97
2026-08-04 Exports 77.49 75.0 +0.660 Low +6.86
2026-08-17 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 2.9 -0.163 High -6.85
2026-09-04 Employment Change -41.7 15.0 -0.158 Medium -6.73
2026-07-10 Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.6 +0.378 High +6.61
2026-06-22 CPI MoM 1.0 0.7 -0.841 Medium -6.47
2026-08-14 Manufacturing Sales MoM 0.1 -0.1 +0.431 Low +5.65
2026-07-24 Raw Materials Prices MoM -6.9 -1.5 +0.679 Low +5.47
2026-06-25 Average Weekly Earnings 3.8 2.9 +1.215 Low +5.01
2026-07-24 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.1 -0.2 +0.306 Medium +4.94
2026-07-10 Participation Rate 65.0 65.2 -0.421 Medium -4.91
2026-09-03 Exports 76.14 77.0 -0.222 Low -4.61
2026-07-07 Exports 77.1 74.0 +0.833 Low +4.53
2026-09-03 Labour Productivity QoQ 1.0 0.7 +0.215 Low +4.47
2026-08-07 Average Hourly Wages YoY 3.0 3.6 -0.400 Low -4.46
2026-08-14 Capacity Utilization 82.3 82.0 +0.338 Low +4.42
2026-08-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM -0.2 0.9 -0.264 Low -4.35
2026-08-17 Foreign Securities Purchases 40.83 15.0 +0.309 Low +4.34
2026-08-21 CFIB Business Barometer 57.6 56.0 +0.274 Low +4.22
2026-06-19 CFIB Business Barometer 49.6 56.5 -1.171 Low -4.20
2026-07-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1 2.2 +0.281 Medium +4.12
2026-08-07 Full Time Employment Chg 38.6 21.0 +0.177 Medium +3.95
2026-07-15 New Motor Vehicle Sales 190.6 175.0 +0.595 Low +3.90
2026-08-07 Employment Change 75.1 15.0 +0.168 Medium +3.74
2026-06-22 Inflation Rate YoY 3.2 3.0 -0.315 High -3.63
2026-07-20 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.9 +0.163 High +3.59
2026-06-15 Wholesale Sales MoM 0.6 0.1 +0.982 Low +3.21
2026-07-30 Average Weekly Earnings 3.4 3.7 -0.318 Low -2.94
2026-06-16 Foreign Securities Purchases 46.91 8.16 +0.853 Low +2.86
2026-08-21 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.091 Medium +2.81
2026-07-10 Average Hourly Wages YoY 3.7 3.1 +0.465 Low +2.71
2026-08-21 Retail Sales YoY 5.2 3.1 +0.175 Low +2.69
2026-07-10 Full Time Employment Chg 0.6 -15.0 +0.220 Medium +2.57
2026-08-28 Budget Balance 0.99 2.0 -0.138 Low -2.49
2026-07-31 Budget Balance -0.31 -6.4 +0.259 Low +2.45
2026-08-07 Ivey PMI 55.1 55.5 -0.071 High -2.37
2026-06-19 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.1 0.7 -0.313 Medium -2.25
2026-07-31 Budget Balance -1.05 -8.0 +0.237 Low +2.24
2026-08-27 Average Weekly Earnings 3.4 3.3 +0.119 Low +2.10
2026-06-22 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 0.8 -0.258 Medium -1.98
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.197 Medium +1.82
2026-08-25 Wholesale Sales MoM -0.6 -1.3 +0.106 Low +1.78
2026-07-07 Imports 72.86 72.0 +0.323 Low +1.76
2026-06-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM 1.1 -1.3 +0.398 Low +1.60
2026-06-15 Housing Starts 261.4 255.1 +0.224 Medium +1.46
2026-07-23 Retail Sales YoY 5.9 3.5 +0.177 Low +1.39
2026-08-28 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 3.3 3.4 -0.037 Medium -1.32
2026-07-15 Wholesale Sales MoM 0.0 -0.7 +0.196 Low +1.29
2026-08-28 GDP Growth Annualized 3.3 3.4 -0.023 High -1.25
2026-07-10 Building Permits MoM -1.7 2.4 -0.153 Low -0.89
2026-07-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM -0.1 -0.2 +0.108 Low +0.87
2026-07-23 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 1.2 1.4 -0.052 Medium -0.82
2026-08-20 Raw Materials Prices MoM -2.2 -1.8 +0.042 Low +0.63
2026-06-26 Wholesale Sales MoM -0.7 -0.4 -0.147 Low -0.62
2026-07-17 Foreign Securities Purchases 7.9 15.21 -0.086 Low -0.59
2026-06-19 Retail Sales MoM 0.5 0.6 -0.076 Medium -0.55
2026-06-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.5 -0.143 Low -0.55
2026-09-03 Balance of Trade 0.77 3.6 -0.011 Medium -0.45
2026-06-18 Producer Price Index MoM 1.2 1.8 +0.121 Low +0.42
2026-08-20 Producer Price Index YoY 12.4 12.0 -0.027 Low -0.41
2026-07-10 Part Time Employment Chg 17.5 25.0 -0.034 Medium -0.40
2026-07-10 Employment Change 18.2 10.0 +0.034 Medium +0.40
2026-06-19 Retail Sales YoY 3.7 2.9 +0.071 Low +0.26
2026-07-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 1.3 1.1 +0.039 Low +0.26
2026-06-18 Raw Materials Prices MoM 0.7 1.1 +0.069 Low +0.24
2026-07-24 Producer Price Index YoY 12.4 12.8 +0.025 Low +0.20
2026-07-24 Raw Materials Prices YoY 20.7 26.3 +0.019 Low +0.16
2026-08-14 Wholesale Sales MoM 2.8 2.7 +0.007 Low +0.10
2026-06-18 Producer Price Index YoY 13.6 14.0 +0.023 Low +0.08
2026-08-04 Balance of Trade 3.86 3.0 +0.004 Medium +0.08
2026-07-07 Balance of Trade 4.24 2.9 +0.006 Medium +0.07
2026-06-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 4.2 4.5 -0.014 Low -0.05
2026-06-18 Raw Materials Prices YoY 33.4 37.0 +0.009 Low +0.03
2026-08-20 Raw Materials Prices YoY 18.1 18.0 -0.001 Low -0.01
2026-06-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-15 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-20 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-23 Retail Sales MoM 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-23 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 1.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-31 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-07 Participation Rate 65.1 65.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-17 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-28 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.8 0.8 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-02 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-04 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.4 -0.000 High -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms