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Economic Surprises › Canada

Canada Economic Surprise Index

+1.5 ▬ vs 1w ago (+1.4)
Canada economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.5
1 Week Ago
+1.4
Releases (90d)
129
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with TSX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (129 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-10-19 Common CPI YoY 2.4 2.6 +1.097 High +68.40
2026-10-19 Trimmed CPI YoY 1.8 1.9 +0.891 High +55.52
2026-08-27 Current Account 8.8 -2.0 +4.044 Medium +49.40
2026-10-06 Ivey PMI 58.2 65.2 -0.993 High -45.83
2026-10-23 Retail Sales MoM 0.7 0.3 +0.616 High +42.14
2026-10-09 Participation Rate 64.8 65.3 -1.051 Medium -34.69
2026-09-04 Full Time Employment Chg -35.9 4.0 -2.120 Medium -31.15
2026-09-04 Ivey PMI 64.3 56.2 +1.333 High +29.37
2026-10-26 Wholesale Sales MoM 0.5 -0.1 +1.183 Low +28.90
2026-10-22 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.2 -0.1 -0.615 Medium -27.39
2026-10-16 Housing Starts 248.0 232.5 +0.606 Medium +23.52
2026-10-09 Employment Change -68.3 7.0 -0.451 High -22.34
2026-10-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 52.9 -0.810 Medium -22.22
2026-10-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.2 +0.518 Medium +21.54
2026-10-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.4 +0.517 Medium +21.50
2026-10-15 Capacity Utilization 81.9 81.0 +1.003 Low +19.00
2026-10-19 CPI YoY 3.1 3.2 +0.836 Low +17.37
2026-09-14 Capacity Utilization 80.7 82.4 -1.862 Low -17.24
2026-10-19 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.0 0.2 +0.721 Low +14.99
2026-09-14 Common CPI YoY 2.6 2.7 +0.528 High +14.67
2026-10-22 CFIB Business Barometer 50.0 47.0 +0.616 Low +13.72
2026-10-09 Full Time Employment Chg -35.4 38.0 -0.410 Medium -13.54
2026-10-06 Imports 73.71 75.9 -0.781 Low -12.02
2026-09-24 CFIB Business Barometer 47.9 53.0 -0.928 Low -10.83
2026-10-15 New Motor Vehicle Sales 174.6 161.0 +0.568 Low +10.77
2026-08-28 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.790 Medium -9.87
2026-10-22 Producer Price Index MoM 2.0 0.9 -0.443 Low -9.87
2026-08-12 Building Permits MoM 18.5 0.8 +2.274 Low +9.82
2026-10-09 Average Hourly Wages YoY 2.3 3.0 -0.564 Low -9.30
2026-10-19 Inflation Rate YoY 3.1 3.2 +0.148 High +9.26
2026-10-09 Part Time Employment Chg -32.9 27.0 -0.253 Medium -8.33
2026-09-16 Housing Starts 229.0 240.0 -0.417 Medium -8.08
2026-08-07 Part Time Employment Chg 36.6 4.0 +0.928 Medium +7.14
2026-08-18 Housing Starts 229.1 248.0 -0.693 Medium -6.88
2026-09-17 Raw Materials Prices MoM 3.1 0.7 -0.653 Low -6.48
2026-08-28 GDP Implicit Price QoQ 2.5 0.6 +1.027 Low +6.42
2026-09-04 Participation Rate 65.0 65.2 -0.421 Medium -6.19
2026-08-17 New Motor Vehicle Sales 190.2 160.0 +1.270 Low +6.16
2026-10-16 Foreign Securities Purchases -17.31 23.59 -0.315 Low -6.10
2026-09-03 S&P Global Services PMI 46.8 49.0 -0.847 Low -6.08
2026-10-23 Manufacturing Sales MoM 0.1 -0.5 +0.260 Low +5.93
2026-08-17 Common CPI YoY 2.7 2.5 -1.141 Low -5.53
2026-09-04 Average Hourly Wages YoY 2.0 2.9 -0.750 Low -5.51
2026-09-24 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM -0.7 -0.5 -0.147 High -5.15
2026-10-23 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 1.2 1.0 +0.074 High +5.03
2026-09-14 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.3 -0.270 Medium -5.00
2026-08-28 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.3 0.2 +0.395 Medium +4.93
2026-10-05 S&P Global Services PMI 48.3 47.5 +0.318 Low +4.78
2026-08-17 Median CPI YoY 2.0 1.9 -0.983 Low -4.76
2026-08-17 CPI MoM 0.5 0.4 -0.491 Medium -4.76
2026-08-04 Imports 73.63 70.2 +1.323 Low +4.75
2026-08-20 Producer Price Index MoM 0.6 -0.4 -0.906 Low -4.71
2026-09-15 New Motor Vehicle Sales 176.2 190.1 -0.492 Low -4.66
2026-08-17 Trimmed CPI YoY 1.9 1.8 -0.940 Low -4.56
2026-08-07 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.5 +0.385 High +4.44
2026-09-03 Imports 75.37 73.8 +0.576 Low +4.14
2026-10-14 Building Permits MoM 8.8 2.9 +0.209 Low +3.87
2026-09-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.8 48.9 -0.502 Low -3.61
2026-09-14 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.2 +0.361 Low +3.34
2026-09-04 Part Time Employment Chg -5.8 6.0 -0.224 Medium -3.29
2026-09-25 Budget Balance -4.77 -2.4 -0.270 Low -3.23
2026-09-15 Wholesale Sales MoM 0.3 -0.5 +0.316 Low +2.99
2026-08-21 Retail Sales MoM -0.8 -0.5 -0.277 Medium -2.95
2026-09-24 Retail Sales YoY 5.1 3.9 +0.080 High +2.81
2026-08-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.2 -0.282 Medium -2.73
2026-09-24 Average Weekly Earnings 3.2 3.4 -0.232 Low -2.71
2026-07-31 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.3 0.2 +0.395 Medium +2.58
2026-08-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.4 -0.259 Medium -2.51
2026-08-21 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.4 +0.231 Medium +2.46
2026-10-06 Exports 77.91 77.3 +0.158 Low +2.43
2026-10-23 Retail Sales MoM 1.2 1.3 -0.036 High -2.43
2026-08-04 Exports 77.49 75.0 +0.664 Low +2.38
2026-08-17 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 2.9 -0.164 High -2.38
2026-09-04 Employment Change -41.7 15.0 -0.159 Medium -2.33
2026-10-22 Raw Materials Prices MoM 4.8 3.1 -0.104 Low -2.33
2026-09-24 Retail Sales MoM -0.7 -0.8 +0.058 High +2.02
2026-09-14 Manufacturing Sales MoM -0.4 -0.2 -0.217 Low -2.01
2026-08-14 Manufacturing Sales MoM 0.1 -0.1 +0.433 Low +1.96
2026-10-23 Retail Sales YoY 5.4 4.9 +0.027 High +1.82
2026-09-16 Building Permits MoM -17.3 -6.4 -0.175 Low -1.70
2026-09-03 Exports 76.14 77.0 -0.223 Low -1.60
2026-08-07 Average Hourly Wages YoY 3.0 3.6 -0.403 Low -1.55
2026-09-03 Labour Productivity QoQ 1.0 0.7 +0.215 Low +1.55
2026-08-17 Foreign Securities Purchases 40.83 15.0 +0.313 Low +1.52
2026-08-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM -0.2 0.9 -0.265 Low -1.51
2026-08-14 Capacity Utilization 82.3 82.0 +0.330 Low +1.49
2026-10-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 1.5 1.1 +0.079 Low +1.49
2026-08-21 CFIB Business Barometer 57.6 56.0 +0.276 Low +1.47
2026-10-05 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.7 48.5 +0.092 Low +1.38
2026-08-07 Full Time Employment Chg 38.6 21.0 +0.178 Medium +1.37
2026-08-07 Employment Change 75.1 15.0 +0.168 Medium +1.29
2026-07-30 Average Weekly Earnings 3.4 3.7 -0.320 Low -1.02
2026-08-21 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.092 Medium +0.98
2026-08-21 Retail Sales YoY 5.2 3.1 +0.177 Low +0.94
2026-08-28 Budget Balance 0.99 2.0 -0.138 Low -0.86
2026-07-31 Budget Balance -0.31 -6.4 +0.261 Low +0.85
2026-09-17 Producer Price Index YoY 13.5 12.3 -0.080 Low -0.79
2026-07-31 Budget Balance -1.05 -8.0 +0.238 Low +0.78
2026-08-07 Ivey PMI 55.1 55.5 -0.067 High -0.77
2026-08-27 Average Weekly Earnings 3.4 3.3 +0.120 Low +0.73
2026-08-25 Wholesale Sales MoM -0.6 -1.3 +0.106 Low +0.62
2026-10-06 Balance of Trade 4.2 1.7 +0.020 Medium +0.62
2026-10-22 Producer Price Index YoY 14.5 14.1 -0.023 Low -0.52
2026-09-17 Foreign Securities Purchases 20.65 28.64 -0.051 Low -0.50
2026-08-28 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 3.3 3.4 -0.037 Medium -0.46
2026-08-28 GDP Growth Annualized 3.3 3.4 -0.023 High -0.43
2026-10-22 Raw Materials Prices YoY 27.0 24.0 -0.012 Low -0.26
2026-10-15 Wholesale Sales MoM -1.6 -1.5 -0.013 Low -0.25
2026-09-17 Raw Materials Prices YoY 22.8 18.2 -0.023 Low -0.23
2026-08-20 Raw Materials Prices MoM -2.2 -1.8 +0.042 Low +0.22
2026-09-03 Balance of Trade 0.77 3.6 -0.011 Medium -0.15
2026-08-20 Producer Price Index YoY 12.4 12.0 -0.027 Low -0.14
2026-08-04 Balance of Trade 3.86 3.0 +0.004 Medium +0.03
2026-08-14 Wholesale Sales MoM 2.8 2.7 +0.007 Low +0.03
2026-07-31 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-07 Participation Rate 65.1 65.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-17 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-20 Raw Materials Prices YoY 18.1 18.0 -0.001 Low -0.00
2026-08-28 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.8 0.8 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-02 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-04 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.4 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-09-14 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-09-14 Trimmed CPI YoY 1.9 1.9 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-09-14 Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 -0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-09-14 Median CPI YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-09-14 CPI YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-29 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-10-09 Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.5 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-10-19 Median CPI YoY 1.9 1.9 -0.000 High -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms