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Economic Surprises › Canada
Canada +5.9 ▲ vs 1w ago (+4.8)
Canada economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+5.9
1 Week Ago
+4.8
Releases (90d)
126
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with TSX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (126 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-20 CPI MoM -0.4 -0.2 +1.951 Medium +81.07
2026-07-24 Wholesale Sales MoM 2.7 -0.2 +2.832 Low +64.55
2026-05-29 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.4 -0.1 +3.898 Medium +48.73
2026-07-20 Inflation Rate MoM -0.4 -0.2 +1.027 Medium +42.69
2026-07-15 Capacity Utilization 82.5 80.5 +2.276 Low +42.14
2026-07-23 CFIB Business Barometer 58.3 49.9 +1.600 Low +35.64
2026-07-16 Housing Starts 239.0 258.0 -0.667 Medium -25.27
2026-06-12 New Motor Vehicle Sales 183.9 130.0 +2.766 Low +23.89
2026-06-17 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.3 -0.1 -1.226 Medium -23.77
2026-06-05 Unemployment Rate 6.6 6.9 +1.077 High +23.74
2026-06-19 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 0.3 +1.064 Medium +21.61
2026-07-24 Producer Price Index MoM -1.4 -0.4 +0.904 Low +20.61
2026-07-06 S&P Global Services PMI 47.1 50.9 -1.367 Low -20.55
2026-07-07 Ivey PMI 56.2 59.1 -0.444 High -20.50
2026-07-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.9 51.0 -1.310 Low -19.70
2026-05-29 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.0 0.1 -1.011 High -18.96
2026-07-10 Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.6 +0.375 High +18.58
2026-06-22 CPI MoM 1.0 0.7 -0.836 Medium -18.19
2026-05-28 Average Weekly Earnings 3.5 2.1 +2.570 Low +15.69
2026-05-06 Ivey PMI 57.7 49.9 +1.414 High +15.59
2026-05-29 GDP Growth Annualized -0.1 1.5 -0.824 High -15.46
2026-07-24 Raw Materials Prices MoM -6.9 -1.5 +0.676 Low +15.40
2026-05-29 Gross Domestic Product QoQ -0.1 1.5 -1.218 Medium -15.22
2026-05-14 New Motor Vehicle Sales 176.5 119.0 +3.224 Low +14.25
2026-07-24 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.1 -0.2 +0.306 Medium +13.97
2026-06-25 Average Weekly Earnings 3.8 2.9 +1.196 Low +13.95
2026-07-10 Participation Rate 65.0 65.2 -0.418 Medium -13.80
2026-05-15 Housing Starts 279.3 240.0 +1.483 Medium +13.41
2026-07-07 Exports 77.1 74.0 +0.825 Low +12.69
2026-06-19 CFIB Business Barometer 49.6 56.5 -1.161 Low -11.79
2026-05-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1 2.6 +1.183 Medium +11.74
2026-05-08 Part Time Employment Chg 29.0 2.0 +1.519 Medium +11.69
2026-07-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1 2.2 +0.280 Medium +11.62
2026-06-05 Ivey PMI 58.2 55.0 +0.526 High +11.60
2026-07-15 New Motor Vehicle Sales 190.6 175.0 +0.595 Low +11.01
2026-06-05 Full Time Employment Chg 154.0 35.0 +0.734 Medium +10.79
2026-06-22 Inflation Rate YoY 3.2 3.0 -0.314 High -10.24
2026-07-20 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.9 +0.162 High +10.12
2026-05-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.3 48.5 +3.051 Low +9.98
2026-05-22 CFIB Business Barometer 46.3 57.4 -1.838 Low -9.77
2026-06-09 Exports 75.16 71.0 +1.154 Low +9.30
2026-06-09 Imports 72.4 69.5 +1.125 Low +9.07
2026-06-15 Wholesale Sales MoM 0.6 0.1 +0.977 Low +9.04
2026-05-08 Unemployment Rate 6.9 6.7 -0.740 High -8.54
2026-05-19 CPI MoM 0.4 0.7 +0.836 Medium +8.29
2026-06-16 Foreign Securities Purchases 46.91 8.16 +0.847 Low +8.02
2026-05-05 Exports 72.77 65.5 +2.185 Low +7.84
2026-04-30 Average Weekly Earnings 3.4 2.1 +2.386 Low +7.63
2026-07-10 Average Hourly Wages YoY 3.7 3.1 +0.459 Low +7.57
2026-07-10 Full Time Employment Chg 0.6 -15.0 +0.225 Medium +7.41
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.9 52.0 +0.534 Medium +7.15
2026-05-19 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 3.1 +0.456 High +6.78
2026-06-19 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.1 0.7 -0.312 Medium -6.34
2026-07-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.0 53.4 -0.231 Medium -6.33
2026-06-03 Labour Productivity QoQ -0.5 0.7 -0.853 Low -5.99
2026-05-08 Full Time Employment Chg -46.7 18.0 -0.776 Medium -5.97
2026-05-28 Current Account -7.2 -4.7 -0.480 Medium -5.86
2026-06-22 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 0.8 -0.257 Medium -5.59
2026-06-05 Average Hourly Wages YoY 3.2 4.7 -0.757 Low -5.56
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.195 Medium +5.10
2026-07-07 Imports 72.86 72.0 +0.322 Low +4.96
2026-05-08 Participation Rate 65.0 64.7 +0.632 Medium +4.87
2026-06-05 Employment Change 88.0 10.0 +0.325 Medium +4.77
2026-06-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM 1.1 -1.3 +0.395 Low +4.51
2026-05-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.7 +0.440 Medium +4.37
2026-06-15 Housing Starts 261.4 255.1 +0.224 Medium +4.14
2026-07-10 Building Permits MoM -1.7 2.4 -0.244 Low -4.02
2026-07-23 Retail Sales YoY 5.9 3.5 +0.176 Low +3.92
2026-07-15 Wholesale Sales MoM 0.0 -0.7 +0.195 Low +3.62
2026-06-05 Part Time Employment Chg -66.2 -23.0 -0.211 Medium -3.11
2026-06-05 Participation Rate 65.0 65.1 -0.209 Medium -3.08
2026-05-05 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9 48.0 +0.853 Low +3.06
2026-06-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 50.8 49.8 +0.433 Low +3.04
2026-05-05 Imports 70.99 68.9 +0.818 Low +2.94
2026-05-26 Manufacturing Sales MoM 4.6 1.4 +0.490 Low +2.86
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 50.6 49.6 +0.369 Low +2.59
2026-07-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM -0.1 -0.2 +0.107 Low +2.44
2026-05-22 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 0.6 +0.228 Medium +2.42
2026-07-23 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 1.2 1.4 -0.052 Medium -2.32
2026-05-05 S&P Global Services PMI 49.2 47.6 +0.615 Low +2.21
2026-05-22 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 1.4 0.9 +0.202 Medium +2.15
2026-06-26 Wholesale Sales MoM -0.7 -0.4 -0.146 Low -1.75
2026-05-22 Retail Sales YoY 3.4 1.5 +0.325 Low +1.73
2026-05-19 Building Permits MoM 10.3 3.0 +0.347 Low +1.72
2026-07-17 Foreign Securities Purchases 7.9 15.21 -0.086 Low -1.66
2026-06-19 Retail Sales MoM 0.5 0.6 -0.076 Medium -1.54
2026-06-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.5 -0.142 Low -1.54
2026-06-11 Building Permits MoM -7.6 -3.5 -0.167 Low -1.41
2026-06-18 Producer Price Index MoM 1.2 1.8 +0.121 Low +1.20
2026-05-19 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.236 Low +1.17
2026-07-10 Employment Change 18.2 10.0 +0.034 Medium +1.13
2026-07-10 Part Time Employment Chg 17.5 25.0 -0.034 Medium -1.11
2026-05-22 Producer Price Index MoM 2.0 1.3 -0.195 Low -1.04
2026-05-22 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.5 +0.091 Medium +0.97
2026-05-25 Wholesale Sales MoM 0.1 0.8 -0.171 Low -0.97
2026-05-29 GDP Implicit Price QoQ 1.1 0.8 +0.120 Low +0.75
2026-06-19 Retail Sales YoY 3.7 2.9 +0.071 Low +0.72
2026-07-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 1.3 1.1 +0.039 Low +0.72
2026-05-08 Employment Change -17.7 15.0 -0.091 Medium -0.70
2026-05-29 Budget Balance -29.73 -21.0 -0.111 Low -0.70
2026-06-18 Raw Materials Prices MoM 0.7 1.1 +0.068 Low +0.68
2026-05-22 Producer Price Index YoY 11.4 10.0 -0.113 Low -0.60
2026-07-24 Producer Price Index YoY 12.4 12.8 +0.025 Low +0.58
2026-05-15 Foreign Securities Purchases 4.62 11.4 -0.106 Low -0.48
2026-07-24 Raw Materials Prices YoY 20.7 26.3 +0.019 Low +0.44
2026-05-14 Wholesale Sales MoM 1.9 1.4 +0.070 Low +0.31
2026-06-18 Producer Price Index YoY 13.6 14.0 +0.023 Low +0.23
2026-05-08 Average Hourly Wages YoY 4.8 4.9 -0.048 Low -0.19
2026-07-07 Balance of Trade 4.24 2.9 +0.006 Medium +0.19
2026-05-05 Balance of Trade 1.78 -2.9 +0.022 Medium +0.16
2026-05-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 3.0 3.5 -0.031 Low -0.14
2026-06-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM 4.2 4.5 -0.014 Low -0.13
2026-06-18 Raw Materials Prices YoY 33.4 37.0 +0.009 Low +0.09
2026-05-22 Raw Materials Prices MoM 2.6 2.7 +0.007 Low +0.04
2026-05-22 Raw Materials Prices YoY 31.6 29.0 -0.008 Low -0.04
2026-06-09 Balance of Trade 2.72 2.6 +0.001 Medium +0.01
2026-04-29 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-10 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-15 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-20 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-23 Retail Sales MoM 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-23 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 1.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms