Canada
+9.8
▲
vs 1w ago (+7.7)
Canada economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+9.8
1 Week Ago
+7.7
Releases (90d)
123
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with TSX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Gross Domestic Product MoM +3.86z
- New Motor Vehicle Sales +3.31z
- Housing Starts +1.48z
- Core Inflation Rate YoY +1.18z
- Part Time Employment Chg +1.50z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Unemployment Rate -0.74z
- New Housing Price Index MoM -1.22z
- Full Time Employment Chg -0.77z
- New Housing Price Index MoM -3.06z
- Housing Starts -0.68z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (123 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | +3.861 | Medium | +121.60 |
| 2026-05-14 | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 176.5 | 119.0 | +3.306 | Low | +71.94 |
| 2026-05-15 | Housing Starts | 279.3 | 240.0 | +1.478 | Medium | +65.83 |
| 2026-05-19 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 2.6 | +1.176 | Medium | +57.46 |
| 2026-05-08 | Part Time Employment Chg | 29.0 | 2.0 | +1.502 | Medium | +56.92 |
| 2026-05-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 48.5 | +2.999 | Low | +48.33 |
| 2026-04-16 | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 124.0 | 80.0 | +3.763 | Low | +42.88 |
| 2026-05-08 | Unemployment Rate | 6.9 | 6.7 | -0.737 | High | -41.88 |
| 2026-04-30 | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 2.1 | +2.498 | Low | +39.34 |
| 2026-05-05 | Exports | 72.77 | 65.5 | +2.179 | Low | +38.52 |
| 2026-04-24 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 1.3 | -0.1 | +2.760 | Low | +37.85 |
| 2026-05-19 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.1 | +0.453 | High | +33.19 |
| 2026-04-22 | New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.2 | -1.223 | Medium | -32.03 |
| 2026-05-08 | Full Time Employment Chg | -46.7 | 18.0 | -0.768 | Medium | -29.11 |
| 2026-04-24 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | +0.898 | Medium | +24.62 |
| 2026-05-08 | Participation Rate | 65.0 | 64.7 | +0.628 | Medium | +23.79 |
| 2026-03-20 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | -0.3 | +1.796 | Medium | +21.93 |
| 2026-05-19 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.7 | +0.439 | Medium | +21.44 |
| 2026-04-02 | Imports | 72.05 | 65.8 | +2.543 | Low | +20.98 |
| 2026-02-19 | New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -3.058 | Medium | -19.11 |
| 2026-02-20 | Retail Sales MoM | 1.5 | 0.2 | +2.918 | Medium | +18.66 |
| 2026-04-17 | Housing Starts | 235.9 | 255.0 | -0.676 | Medium | -15.77 |
| 2026-05-05 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 49.9 | 48.0 | +0.848 | Low | +15.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | New Housing Price Index MoM | 0.3 | -0.3 | +1.223 | Medium | +14.94 |
| 2026-05-05 | Imports | 70.99 | 68.9 | +0.812 | Low | +14.36 |
| 2026-02-20 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.7 | 0.2 | -4.482 | Low | -14.33 |
| 2026-03-06 | PMI | 56.6 | 51.1 | +1.543 | Medium | +13.64 |
| 2026-03-31 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | +0.772 | Medium | +12.16 |
| 2026-02-27 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.2 | -0.1 | -1.008 | High | -11.37 |
| 2026-05-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.2 | 47.6 | +0.613 | Low | +10.84 |
| 2026-04-10 | Unemployment Rate | 6.7 | 6.8 | +0.363 | High | +10.80 |
| 2026-03-16 | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 114.41 | 90.0 | +1.856 | Low | +10.33 |
| 2026-04-17 | CFIB Business Barometer | 58.5 | 54.0 | +0.831 | Low | +9.69 |
| 2026-03-18 | Foreign Securities Purchases | 46.73 | 4.72 | +1.570 | Low | +9.16 |
| 2026-04-10 | Average Hourly Wages YoY | 5.1 | 3.7 | +0.887 | Low | +8.80 |
| 2026-04-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.0 | 49.2 | +0.493 | Medium | +7.94 |
| 2026-03-26 | Average Weekly Earnings | 2.0 | 1.6 | +1.009 | Low | +7.08 |
| 2026-04-20 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.187 | High | +7.02 |
| 2026-02-24 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -3.3 | 0.4 | -1.959 | Low | -6.87 |
| 2026-03-27 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.3 | 0.4 | +0.937 | Low | +6.72 |
| 2026-04-24 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.8 | 1.3 | +0.486 | Low | +6.66 |
| 2026-04-20 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | -0.255 | Medium | -6.37 |
| 2026-02-26 | Current Account | -0.7 | -7.7 | +0.813 | Medium | +5.97 |
| 2026-02-26 | Current Account | -0.7 | -7.7 | +0.813 | Medium | +5.97 |
| 2026-02-20 | Raw Materials Prices MoM | 7.7 | 0.7 | -1.853 | Low | -5.93 |
| 2026-04-02 | Exports | 66.31 | 64.0 | +0.709 | Low | +5.84 |
| 2026-03-13 | Unemployment Rate | 6.7 | 6.6 | -0.374 | High | -5.83 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | +0.772 | Medium | +5.81 |
| 2026-03-13 | Full Time Employment Chg | -108.4 | -30.0 | -0.559 | Medium | -5.80 |
| 2026-03-24 | CFIB Business Barometer | 55.8 | 61.1 | -0.865 | Low | -5.79 |
| 2026-05-19 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.232 | Low | +5.67 |
| 2026-03-12 | Exports | 62.48 | 66.0 | -1.047 | Low | -5.31 |
| 2026-04-10 | Full Time Employment Chg | -1.1 | 10.0 | -0.237 | Medium | -4.71 |
| 2026-04-10 | Participation Rate | 64.9 | 65.0 | -0.208 | Medium | -4.13 |
| 2026-03-16 | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.8 | 1.9 | +0.246 | High | +4.11 |
| 2026-03-13 | Employment Change | -83.9 | 10.0 | -0.388 | Medium | -4.04 |
| 2026-03-16 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.696 | Low | -3.88 |
| 2026-03-13 | Average Hourly Wages YoY | 4.2 | 3.2 | +0.732 | Low | +3.80 |
| 2026-04-24 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.135 | Medium | -3.70 |
| 2026-02-27 | CFIB Business Barometer | 64.8 | 59.0 | +0.980 | Low | +3.69 |
| 2026-05-08 | Employment Change | -17.7 | 15.0 | -0.090 | Medium | -3.42 |
| 2026-03-16 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.7 | +0.293 | Medium | +3.26 |
| 2026-02-20 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.1 | -0.3 | +0.480 | Medium | +3.07 |
| 2026-04-20 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.232 | Low | +2.90 |
| 2026-03-16 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.255 | Medium | +2.84 |
| 2026-04-06 | S&P Global Services PMI | 47.2 | 48.0 | -0.304 | Low | -2.75 |
| 2026-04-24 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.100 | Medium | -2.74 |
| 2026-02-26 | Average Weekly Earnings | 1.9 | 2.3 | -0.702 | Low | -2.58 |
| 2026-04-20 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.9 | 1.0 | +0.102 | Medium | +2.56 |
| 2026-03-16 | CPI | 2.3 | 2.4 | +0.443 | Low | +2.47 |
| 2026-04-23 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.4 | 1.6 | -0.179 | Low | -2.40 |
| 2026-05-15 | Foreign Securities Purchases | 4.62 | 11.4 | -0.105 | Low | -2.34 |
| 2026-03-13 | Participation Rate | 64.9 | 64.8 | +0.209 | Medium | +2.17 |
| 2026-04-23 | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.8 | 6.5 | -0.160 | Low | -2.14 |
| 2026-02-25 | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.592 | Low | -2.12 |
| 2026-04-23 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 3.5 | 2.2 | +0.125 | Low | +1.68 |
| 2026-03-24 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 3.8 | 1.8 | +0.235 | Low | +1.58 |
| 2026-03-12 | Imports | 66.13 | 66.9 | -0.308 | Low | -1.56 |
| 2026-05-14 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 1.9 | 1.4 | +0.070 | Low | +1.53 |
| 2026-04-17 | Foreign Securities Purchases | 6.17 | 23.81 | -0.131 | Low | -1.52 |
| 2026-03-20 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.120 | Medium | -1.47 |
| 2026-03-20 | Retail Sales MoM | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.120 | Medium | -1.46 |
| 2026-03-02 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.0 | 50.7 | +0.179 | Medium | +1.44 |
| 2026-03-20 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 1.1 | +0.228 | Low | +1.39 |
| 2026-03-27 | Budget Balance | -5.07 | -3.0 | -0.184 | Low | -1.32 |
| 2026-03-12 | Building Permits | 4.8 | -2.0 | +0.243 | Low | +1.23 |
| 2026-02-27 | Budget Balance | 0.2 | -1.3 | +0.307 | Low | +1.15 |
| 2026-05-08 | Average Hourly Wages YoY | 4.8 | 4.9 | -0.048 | Low | -0.91 |
| 2026-03-20 | Raw Materials Prices MoM | 0.6 | 2.4 | +0.139 | Low | +0.85 |
| 2026-03-04 | S&P Global Services PMI | 46.5 | 46.0 | +0.198 | Low | +0.84 |
| 2026-04-23 | Raw Materials Prices YoY | 23.6 | 14.0 | -0.061 | Low | -0.81 |
| 2026-03-20 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.5 | 1.0 | +0.126 | Low | +0.77 |
| 2026-05-05 | Balance of Trade | 1.78 | -2.9 | +0.022 | Medium | +0.77 |
| 2026-03-13 | Part Time Employment Chg | 24.5 | 15.0 | +0.070 | Medium | +0.73 |
| 2026-04-23 | Raw Materials Prices MoM | 12.0 | 9.3 | -0.054 | Low | -0.72 |
| 2026-03-12 | Wholesale Sales MoM | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.131 | Low | -0.67 |
| 2026-05-15 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.030 | Low | -0.67 |
| 2026-03-13 | Capacity Utilization | 78.5 | 78.4 | +0.123 | Low | +0.64 |
| 2026-03-13 | Capacity Utilization | 78.5 | 78.4 | +0.123 | Low | +0.64 |
| 2026-03-16 | Housing Starts | 250.9 | 252.5 | -0.057 | Medium | -0.64 |
| 2026-02-19 | Exports | 65.63 | 65.0 | +0.190 | Low | +0.59 |
| 2026-02-19 | Imports | 66.93 | 67.4 | -0.187 | Low | -0.58 |
| 2026-02-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 4.4 | -0.181 | Low | -0.58 |
| 2026-02-20 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.5 | +0.090 | Medium | +0.57 |
| 2026-04-10 | Part Time Employment Chg | 15.2 | 20.0 | -0.027 | Medium | -0.53 |
| 2026-03-12 | Balance of Trade | -3.65 | -0.9 | -0.041 | Medium | -0.42 |
| 2026-04-06 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 47.6 | 47.5 | +0.045 | Low | +0.41 |
| 2026-03-04 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 47.1 | 46.9 | +0.091 | Low | +0.39 |
| 2026-04-02 | Balance of Trade | -5.74 | -2.3 | -0.020 | Medium | -0.33 |
| 2026-03-06 | Ivey PMI s.a | 56.6 | 51.1 | +0.022 | High | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-15 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.026 | Low | -0.29 |
| 2026-04-15 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 3.6 | 3.8 | -0.011 | Low | -0.12 |
| 2026-02-20 | Raw Materials Prices YoY | 8.0 | 5.9 | -0.032 | Low | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-13 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -3.0 | -3.3 | +0.019 | Low | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 5.5 | +0.015 | Low | +0.09 |
| 2026-04-10 | Employment Change | 14.1 | 15.0 | -0.002 | Medium | -0.05 |
| 2026-02-19 | Balance of Trade | -1.31 | -2.1 | +0.005 | Medium | +0.03 |
| 2026-02-27 | GDP Implicit Price QoQ | 0.7 | 0.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | Labour Productivity QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-18 | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Raw Materials Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | BoC Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |