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Economic Surprises › Canada
Canada +1.8 ▲ vs 1w ago (-1.5)
Canada economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.8
1 Week Ago
-1.5
Releases (90d)
125
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with TSX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (125 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-03-20 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 -0.3 +1.788 High +128.03
2026-02-19 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.4 0.1 -3.062 Medium -74.81
2026-02-20 Retail Sales MoM 1.5 0.2 +2.905 Medium +72.63
2026-03-20 New Housing Price Index MoM 0.3 -0.3 +1.225 Medium +58.48
2026-02-20 Producer Price Index MoM 2.7 0.2 -4.467 Low -55.84
2026-03-16 New Motor Vehicle Sales 114.41 90.0 +2.129 Low +46.34
2026-02-27 GDP Growth Rate QoQ -0.2 -0.1 -1.008 High -44.44
2026-03-18 Foreign Securities Purchases 46.73 4.72 +1.550 Low +35.34
2026-02-06 Unemployment Rate 6.5 6.8 +1.085 High +29.45
2026-02-24 Manufacturing Sales MoM -3.3 0.4 -1.939 Low -26.59
2026-02-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.0 0.2 +1.017 Medium +23.73
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.803 Medium +23.60
2026-01-22 New Housing Price Index MoM -0.2 0.1 -1.837 Medium -23.50
2026-02-26 Current Account -0.7 -7.7 +0.813 Medium +23.34
2026-02-26 Current Account -0.7 -7.7 +0.813 Medium +23.34
2026-02-20 Raw Materials Prices MoM 7.7 0.7 -1.843 Low -23.04
2026-03-13 Unemployment Rate 6.7 6.6 -0.373 High -22.70
2026-03-13 Full Time Employment Chg -108.4 -30.0 -0.556 Medium -22.57
2026-03-12 Exports 62.48 66.0 -1.066 Low -21.14
2026-01-15 Wholesale Sales MoM -1.8 0.1 -3.788 Low -20.61
2026-02-16 Housing Starts 238.0 263.3 -0.868 Medium -19.79
2026-02-06 Participation Rate 65.0 65.5 -1.027 Medium -18.57
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.4 48.9 +1.012 Medium +16.69
2026-03-16 Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 1.9 +0.245 High +15.99
2026-03-13 Employment Change -83.9 10.0 -0.386 Medium -15.68
2026-03-16 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.2 -0.685 Low -14.91
2026-03-13 Average Hourly Wages YoY 4.2 3.2 +0.725 Low +14.71
2026-02-27 CFIB Business Barometer 64.8 59.0 +0.975 Low +14.33
2026-03-16 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.7 +0.291 Medium +12.65
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.803 Medium -12.36
2026-01-19 Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 -0.1 +1.017 Medium +12.14
2026-02-20 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.1 -0.3 +0.478 Medium +11.95
2026-01-19 Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.1 -0.665 High -11.90
2026-01-23 Retail Sales MoM -0.5 1.6 -0.587 High -11.52
2026-03-16 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.255 Medium +11.09
2026-01-09 Unemployment Rate 6.8 6.6 -0.745 High -10.59
2026-02-26 Average Weekly Earnings 1.9 2.3 -0.733 Low -10.53
2026-02-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.8 +0.437 Medium +10.18
2026-03-16 CPI 2.3 2.4 +0.443 Low +9.64
2026-02-06 Full Time Employment Chg 44.9 -30.0 +0.531 Medium +9.61
2026-02-17 CPI 2.4 2.6 +0.818 Low +9.54
2026-02-06 Part Time Employment Chg -69.7 20.0 -0.499 Medium -9.03
2026-03-20 Retail Sales YoY 1.5 1.0 +0.126 High +9.00
2026-01-21 Producer Price Index MoM -0.6 0.2 +1.430 Low +8.93
2026-01-16 Housing Starts 282.4 260.0 +0.778 Medium +8.67
2026-03-20 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 0.8 1.2 -0.120 High -8.56
2026-03-20 Retail Sales MoM 1.1 1.5 -0.119 High -8.54
2026-03-13 Participation Rate 64.9 64.8 +0.208 Medium +8.43
2026-02-25 Wholesale Sales MoM -0.6 0.3 -0.598 Low -8.39
2025-12-23 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 -0.2 +1.205 Medium +7.70
2026-02-17 Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.194 High +6.78
2026-03-12 Imports 66.13 66.9 -0.317 Low -6.28
2026-01-08 Exports 65.61 61.5 +1.335 Low +6.18
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 0.2 -0.402 Medium -6.18
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.7 +0.195 Medium +6.15
2026-02-06 PMI 50.9 49.7 +0.329 Medium +5.94
2026-03-20 Producer Price Index MoM 0.4 1.1 +0.227 Low +5.43
2026-03-12 Building Permits 4.8 -2.0 +0.243 Low +4.82
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 0.2 -1.3 +0.305 Low +4.48
2026-01-09 Part Time Employment Chg -42.0 15.0 -0.423 Medium -4.01
2026-02-17 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.4 +0.343 Low +4.00
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 45.8 47.0 -0.454 Low -3.92
2026-01-23 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM 1.7 1.1 +0.196 High +3.84
2026-01-19 New Motor Vehicle Sales 150.8 164.0 -0.632 Low -3.77
2026-01-23 Retail Sales YoY 3.1 1.8 +0.181 High +3.56
2026-02-06 Employment Change -24.8 7.0 -0.187 Medium -3.38
2026-03-20 Raw Materials Prices MoM 0.6 2.4 +0.138 Low +3.30
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 46.5 46.0 +0.193 Low +3.19
2026-02-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 46.4 47.2 -0.357 Low -3.09
2026-01-08 Imports 66.19 67.8 -0.653 Low -3.02
2026-03-13 Part Time Employment Chg 24.5 15.0 +0.070 Medium +2.86
2026-02-17 Foreign Securities Purchases -5.57 14.27 -0.242 Low -2.82
2026-03-12 Wholesale Sales MoM -1.0 -0.6 -0.133 Low -2.64
2026-03-13 Capacity Utilization 78.5 78.4 +0.123 Low +2.49
2026-03-13 Capacity Utilization 78.5 78.4 +0.123 Low +2.49
2026-03-16 Housing Starts 250.9 252.5 -0.057 Medium -2.49
2026-02-19 Exports 65.63 65.0 +0.194 Low +2.37
2026-02-19 Imports 66.93 67.4 -0.192 Low -2.34
2026-01-21 Raw Materials Prices MoM 0.5 -0.5 -0.369 Low -2.30
2026-02-20 Producer Price Index YoY 5.4 4.4 -0.180 Low -2.26
2025-12-22 Producer Price Index MoM 0.9 0.3 -0.715 Low -2.23
2026-02-20 Retail Sales MoM -0.4 -0.5 +0.089 Medium +2.23
2026-01-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 48.6 49.0 -0.269 Medium -2.17
2026-01-09 Full Time Employment Chg 50.2 25.0 +0.214 Medium +2.03
2026-01-09 Participation Rate 65.4 65.3 +0.206 Medium +1.95
2026-01-30 Budget Balance -8.02 -4.2 -0.240 Low -1.85
2026-03-12 Balance of Trade -3.65 -0.9 -0.041 Medium -1.63
2026-01-09 Employment Change 8.2 -5.0 +0.109 High +1.54
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.1 46.9 +0.090 Low +1.48
2026-02-06 Average Hourly Wages YoY 3.3 3.5 -0.132 Low -1.20
2026-03-06 Ivey PMI s.a 56.6 51.1 +0.022 High +1.16
2026-01-23 Manufacturing Sales MoM 0.5 0.3 +0.140 Low +0.91
2026-01-06 S&P Global Services PMI 46.5 46.0 +0.193 Low +0.85
2026-01-21 Producer Price Index YoY 4.9 5.9 +0.135 Low +0.84
2026-01-09 Average Hourly Wages YoY 3.7 4.0 -0.174 Low -0.82
2026-01-23 Retail Sales MoM 1.3 1.2 +0.037 High +0.73
2026-01-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 46.7 47.0 -0.135 Low -0.59
2026-02-16 Manufacturing Sales MoM 0.6 0.5 +0.042 Low +0.48
2025-12-22 Producer Price Index YoY 6.1 5.2 -0.137 Low -0.43
2026-01-29 Balance of Trade -2.2 -0.7 -0.029 Medium -0.43
2026-02-20 Raw Materials Prices YoY 8.0 5.9 -0.031 Low -0.39
2026-03-13 Manufacturing Sales MoM -3.0 -3.3 +0.019 Low +0.39
2026-01-13 Building Permits -13.1 -6.5 -0.073 Low -0.38
2026-03-20 Producer Price Index YoY 5.4 5.5 +0.014 Low +0.34
2026-01-16 Foreign Securities Purchases 16.33 24.61 -0.059 Low -0.33
2025-12-23 Budget Balance -2.28 -3.52 +0.093 Low +0.30
2025-12-22 Raw Materials Prices MoM 0.3 0.6 +0.092 Low +0.29
2026-02-11 Building Permits 6.8 5.0 +0.026 Low +0.26
2026-01-07 Ivey PMI s.a 51.9 49.5 +0.010 High +0.14
2026-02-06 Ivey PMI s.a 50.9 49.7 +0.005 High +0.14
2026-02-19 Balance of Trade -1.31 -2.1 +0.005 Medium +0.12
2026-02-17 Wholesale Sales MoM 2.0 2.1 -0.009 Low -0.11
2026-01-15 Manufacturing Sales MoM -1.2 -1.1 -0.019 Low -0.10
2026-01-08 Balance of Trade -0.58 -1.4 +0.008 Medium +0.07
2026-01-21 Raw Materials Prices YoY 6.4 5.8 -0.009 Low -0.06
2025-12-22 Raw Materials Prices YoY 6.4 6.7 +0.004 Low +0.01
2025-12-23 Gross Domestic Product MoM -0.3 -0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-19 CPI 2.7 2.7 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-01-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-01-22 CFIB Business Barometer 59.5 59.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-28 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-27 GDP Implicit Price QoQ 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Labour Productivity QoQ -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-18 BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-20 Raw Materials Prices YoY 8.6 8.6 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms