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Economic Surprises › China
China -1.0 ▬ vs 1w ago (-1.1)
China economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-1.0
1 Week Ago
-1.1
Releases (90d)
91
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CSI 300 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (91 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-08-14 New Loans -340.0 45.0 -4.179 Medium -109.42
2026-07-15 Retail Sales YoY 1.0 -0.1 +4.202 High +82.51
2026-08-14 New Loans -340.0 -50.0 -2.833 Medium -74.18
2026-09-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.0 +0.530 High +31.54
2026-08-09 Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 0.2 +1.241 Medium +28.95
2026-08-09 CPI YoY 0.5 0.8 +1.087 Medium +25.35
2026-07-15 Gross Domestic Product YoY 4.3 4.5 -1.125 High -22.09
2026-08-14 Outstanding Loan Growth YoY 5.1 5.3 -1.541 Low -20.18
2026-08-14 Outstanding Loan Growth YoY 5.1 5.3 -1.541 Low -20.18
2026-08-09 Inflation Rate YoY 0.5 0.8 +0.542 High +18.96
2026-09-03 S&P Global Services PMI 51.4 50.6 +0.417 Medium +17.35
2026-08-09 CPI MoM -0.1 0.2 +0.670 Medium +15.62
2026-09-03 PMI 52.1 51.0 +0.729 Low +15.14
2026-09-09 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.276 Medium -13.17
2026-07-15 Outstanding Loan Growth YoY 5.2 5.4 -1.513 Low -9.90
2026-08-17 Retail Sales YoY 0.6 1.5 -0.229 High -9.65
2026-08-17 Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.1 -0.619 Low -8.68
2026-07-15 M2 Money Supply YoY 8.0 8.5 -1.117 Low -7.31
2026-08-31 NBS General PMI 49.5 50.2 -0.358 Low -6.94
2026-09-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 3.438 3.43 +0.303 Low +6.91
2026-07-15 GDP Growth Rate YoY 4.3 4.5 -0.335 High -6.58
2026-06-16 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY -4.1 -2.0 -0.980 Medium -6.56
2026-08-14 M2 Money Supply YoY 7.7 7.9 -0.481 Low -6.29
2026-08-14 M2 Money Supply YoY 7.7 7.9 -0.481 Low -6.29
2026-08-31 NBS Non Manufacturing PMI 49.0 49.5 -0.157 Medium -6.09
2026-07-31 NBS Non Manufacturing PMI 49.0 50.0 -0.311 Medium -5.89
2026-07-31 NBS General PMI 49.3 50.4 -0.560 Low -5.30
2026-08-14 Current Account 195.1 150.0 +0.190 Medium +4.98
2026-07-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 3.416 3.44 -0.907 Low -4.93
2026-07-09 Inflation Rate MoM -0.3 -0.2 +0.414 Medium +4.72
2026-07-15 Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.1 +0.619 Low +4.05
2026-08-17 Industrial Production YoY 4.5 5.0 -0.084 High -3.55
2026-07-15 Industrial Capacity Utilization 73.0 74.0 -0.522 Low -3.42
2026-08-09 Producer Price Index YoY 3.5 3.8 +0.142 Medium +3.31
2026-07-09 CPI YoY 1.0 1.1 +0.263 Medium +3.00
2026-08-14 New Yuan Loans -340.0 45.0 -0.102 Medium -2.66
2026-07-09 CPI MoM -0.3 -0.2 +0.223 Medium +2.54
2026-07-15 Industrial Production YoY 5.3 4.6 +0.128 High +2.52
2026-09-09 Producer Price Index YoY 3.8 3.7 -0.049 Medium -2.32
2026-07-14 Exports YoY 27.0 18.2 +0.118 High +2.27
2026-07-09 Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 1.1 +0.131 High +2.25
2026-08-17 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY -6.7 -6.2 -0.075 Medium -2.11
2026-06-16 Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.2 +0.607 Low +2.03
2026-07-23 FDI (YTD) YoY -5.0 -9.0 +0.128 Medium +2.01
2026-07-15 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY -5.7 -4.9 -0.152 Medium -1.99
2026-07-14 Imports YoY 36.0 24.0 +0.103 High +1.98
2026-09-08 Balance of Trade Yuan 809.3 795.0 +0.075 Low +1.76
2026-08-07 Balance of Trade Yuan 767.07 740.0 +0.154 Low +1.71
2026-07-14 Balance of Trade Yuan 859.05 820.0 +0.200 Low +1.28
2026-07-15 New Loans 1610.0 1950.0 -0.085 Medium -1.12
2026-07-15 New Loans 1610.0 1950.0 -0.085 Medium -1.12
2026-08-07 Balance of Trade 112.5 107.0 +0.033 High +1.12
2026-06-30 NBS Non Manufacturing PMI 50.2 49.9 +0.094 Medium +0.87
2026-09-08 Imports YoY 28.2 30.0 -0.012 High -0.87
2026-08-17 House Price Index YoY -3.2 -3.4 +0.031 Medium +0.86
2026-08-07 Exports YoY 23.9 22.2 +0.019 High +0.63
2026-08-14 Total Social Financing 1410.0 1200.0 +0.041 Low +0.53
2026-08-14 Total Social Financing 1410.0 1200.0 +0.041 Low +0.53
2026-06-22 FDI (YTD) YoY -8.6 -11.0 +0.063 Medium +0.48
2026-07-14 Balance of Trade 125.62 121.0 +0.025 High +0.48
2026-08-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 3.419 3.42 -0.038 Low -0.42
2026-06-16 Industrial Production YoY 4.5 4.3 +0.039 High +0.39
2026-08-27 Industrial Profits YoY 17.6 16.0 +0.020 Low +0.35
2026-08-21 FDI (YTD) YoY -6.2 -6.0 -0.010 Medium -0.29
2026-06-30 NBS General PMI 50.6 50.7 -0.051 Low -0.23
2026-07-15 House Price Index YoY -3.3 -3.4 +0.015 Medium +0.20
2026-07-31 NBS Manufacturing PMI 49.2 50.0 -0.006 High -0.18
2026-07-15 Total Social Financing 3360.0 3770.0 -0.025 Low -0.16
2026-06-16 House Price Index YoY -3.5 -3.4 -0.015 Medium -0.10
2026-08-07 Imports YoY 27.5 27.9 -0.003 High -0.10
2026-06-27 Industrial Profits YoY 18.8 20.0 -0.012 Low -0.05
2026-08-31 NBS Manufacturing PMI 49.8 49.7 +0.001 High +0.05
2026-07-27 Industrial Profits YoY 18.7 19.2 -0.005 Low -0.04
2026-07-15 New Yuan Loans 1610.0 2000.0 -0.002 Medium -0.03
2026-06-30 NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.1 +0.002 High +0.02
2026-06-22 Prime Rate 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-22 Loan Prime Rate 5Y 3.5 3.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-22 Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-26 Current Account 184.3 184.1 +0.001 Low +0.00
2026-07-09 Producer Price Index YoY 4.1 4.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-15 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-15 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.9 0.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-20 Prime Rate 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-20 Loan Prime Rate 5Y 3.5 3.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-20 Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-20 Prime Rate 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-20 Loan Prime Rate 5Y 3.5 3.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-20 Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-09-08 Exports YoY 25.0 25.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-08 Balance of Trade 119.1 119.1 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-09 Inflation Rate YoY 0.8 0.8 -0.000 High -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms