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Economic Surprises › China
China +2.4 ▬ vs 1w ago (+2.4)
China economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+2.4
1 Week Ago
+2.4
Releases (90d)
99
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CSI 300 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (99 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-15 Retail Sales YoY 1.0 -0.1 +4.188 High +232.59
2026-07-15 Gross Domestic Product YoY 4.7 4.5 +1.579 Medium +58.45
2026-07-15 Outstanding Loan Growth YoY 5.2 5.4 -1.523 Low -28.19
2026-05-11 Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 -0.1 -3.301 Medium -27.22
2026-05-14 New Loans -10.0 320.0 -2.796 Medium -24.71
2026-07-15 M2 Money Supply YoY 8.0 8.5 -1.110 Low -20.56
2026-07-15 GDP Growth Rate YoY 4.3 4.5 -0.335 High -18.61
2026-06-16 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY -4.1 -2.0 -0.976 Medium -18.49
2026-05-18 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY -1.6 1.6 -1.858 Medium -18.02
2026-07-15 New Loans 1610.0 1950.0 -0.473 Medium -17.50
2026-07-15 New Loans 1610.0 1950.0 -0.473 Medium -17.50
2026-07-03 S&P Global Services PMI 54.1 53.0 +0.550 Medium +15.42
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 54.4 52.3 +1.063 Medium +14.92
2026-05-11 CPI MoM 0.3 -0.1 -1.683 Medium -13.88
2026-07-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 3.416 3.44 -0.900 Low -13.84
2026-07-09 Inflation Rate MoM -0.3 -0.2 +0.413 Medium +13.30
2026-05-11 Producer Price Index YoY 2.8 1.5 -1.548 Medium -12.77
2026-04-30 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.2 51.0 +1.249 High +11.98
2026-07-15 Unemployment Rate 5.0 5.1 +0.617 Low +11.41
2026-07-15 Industrial Capacity Utilization 73.0 74.0 -0.522 Low -9.67
2026-05-11 Inflation Rate YoY 1.2 0.8 -0.718 High -8.89
2026-07-09 CPI YoY 1.0 1.1 +0.262 Medium +8.46
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.8 51.4 +0.413 High +8.30
2026-05-11 CPI YoY 1.2 0.9 -0.962 Medium -7.94
2026-06-12 New Loans 520.0 450.0 +0.422 Medium +7.28
2026-06-12 New Loans 520.0 450.0 +0.422 Medium +7.28
2026-07-15 Industrial Production YoY 5.3 4.6 +0.128 High +7.11
2026-06-10 Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 -0.2 -0.413 Medium -6.81
2026-07-09 CPI MoM -0.3 -0.2 +0.210 Medium +6.78
2026-06-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 3.442 3.42 +0.829 Low +6.38
2026-07-14 Exports YoY 27.0 18.2 +0.118 High +6.38
2026-07-09 Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 1.1 +0.131 High +6.32
2026-05-14 Outstanding Loan Growth YoY 5.6 5.8 -1.418 Low -6.27
2026-06-16 Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.2 +0.605 Low +5.73
2026-07-23 FDI (YTD) YoY -5.0 -9.0 +0.127 Medium +5.65
2026-07-15 Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY -5.7 -4.9 -0.152 Medium -5.62
2026-07-14 Imports YoY 36.0 24.0 +0.103 High +5.57
2026-06-03 PMI 54.0 52.8 +0.774 Low +5.43
2026-05-18 Retail Sales YoY 0.2 2.0 -0.343 High -4.98
2026-07-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.7 51.6 +0.103 High +4.13
2026-05-18 Industrial Production YoY 4.1 5.9 -0.256 High -3.73
2026-06-10 CPI YoY 1.2 1.3 +0.222 Medium +3.66
2026-06-10 CPI MoM -0.1 -0.2 -0.210 Medium -3.47
2026-05-06 PMI 53.1 51.8 +0.855 Low +3.14
2026-05-18 Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.3 +0.593 Low +2.88
2026-06-10 Inflation Rate YoY 1.2 1.3 +0.111 High +2.73
2026-07-03 PMI 53.6 53.3 +0.192 Low +2.69
2026-05-31 NBS Non Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.5 +0.187 Medium +2.44
2026-06-30 NBS Non Manufacturing PMI 50.2 49.9 +0.093 Medium +2.42
2026-06-09 Balance of Trade 105.43 92.1 +0.094 High +2.27
2026-05-09 Exports YoY 14.1 7.9 +0.191 High +2.25
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 52.6 52.0 +0.305 Medium +2.24
2026-06-12 M2 Money Supply YoY 8.6 8.5 +0.222 Low +1.92
2026-06-09 Exports YoY 19.4 15.0 +0.071 High +1.72
2026-05-25 FDI (YTD) YoY -10.3 -6.8 -0.147 Medium -1.67
2026-05-09 Imports YoY 25.3 15.2 +0.136 High +1.61
2026-05-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 3.411 3.4 +0.417 Low +1.57
2026-06-22 FDI (YTD) YoY -8.6 -11.0 +0.062 Medium +1.36
2026-07-14 Balance of Trade 125.62 121.0 +0.025 High +1.34
2026-06-16 Industrial Production YoY 4.5 4.3 +0.039 High +1.11
2026-04-30 NBS Non Manufacturing PMI 49.4 49.9 -0.154 Medium -0.99
2026-05-14 M2 Money Supply YoY 8.6 8.5 +0.222 Low +0.98
2026-04-30 NBS General PMI 50.1 50.7 -0.299 Low -0.96
2026-05-15 Current Account 184.1 215.0 -0.088 Medium -0.80
2026-05-15 Current Account 184.1 215.0 -0.088 Medium -0.80
2026-05-31 NBS General PMI 50.5 50.3 +0.100 Low +0.66
2026-06-30 NBS General PMI 50.6 50.7 -0.050 Low -0.65
2026-05-27 Industrial Profits YoY 18.2 12.0 +0.101 Low +0.60
2026-05-14 Total Social Financing 620.0 1500.0 -0.135 Low -0.59
2026-07-15 House Price Index YoY -3.3 -3.4 +0.015 Medium +0.56
2026-06-09 Imports YoY 27.4 25.0 +0.020 High +0.48
2026-07-15 Total Social Financing 3360.0 3770.0 -0.025 Low -0.46
2026-06-16 House Price Index YoY -3.5 -3.4 -0.015 Medium -0.29
2026-06-12 Total Social Financing 2030.0 1870.0 +0.020 Low +0.17
2026-05-09 Balance of Trade 84.82 83.3 +0.012 High +0.14
2026-06-27 Industrial Profits YoY 18.8 20.0 -0.012 Low -0.14
2026-07-27 Industrial Profits YoY 18.7 19.2 -0.005 Low -0.12
2026-05-14 New Yuan Loans -10.0 300.0 -0.012 Medium -0.11
2026-07-15 New Yuan Loans 1610.0 2000.0 -0.002 Medium -0.09
2026-06-30 NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.1 +0.002 High +0.06
2026-04-30 NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.1 +0.002 High +0.01
2026-06-12 New Yuan Loans 520.0 550.0 -0.001 Medium -0.01
2026-06-26 Current Account 184.3 184.1 +0.001 Low +0.01
2026-05-18 House Price Index YoY -3.5 -3.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-20 Prime Rate 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-20 Loan Prime Rate 5Y 3.5 3.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-20 Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-31 NBS Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-10 Producer Price Index YoY 3.9 3.9 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-12 Outstanding Loan Growth YoY 5.5 5.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-22 Prime Rate 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-22 Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-22 Loan Prime Rate 5Y 3.5 3.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-09 Producer Price Index YoY 4.1 4.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-15 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.9 0.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-15 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-20 Prime Rate 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-20 Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-07-20 Loan Prime Rate 5Y 3.5 3.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms