China Economic Surprise Index
+0.5 ▬ vs 1w ago (+0.5)
China economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+0.5
1 Week Ago
+0.5
Releases (90d)
93
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CSI 300 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Unemployment Rate +0.60z
- Retail Sales YoY +0.46z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI +0.57z
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ +0.31z
- NBS Non Manufacturing PMI +0.28z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- New Loans -4.34z
- New Loans -2.94z
- Foreign Exchange Reserves -1.13z
- Unemployment Rate -0.61z
- Outstanding Loan Growth YoY -1.60z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (93 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | New Loans | -340.0 | 45.0 | -4.340 | Medium | -39.26 |
| 2026-10-19 | Unemployment Rate | 5.2 | 5.3 | +0.601 | High | +37.46 |
| 2026-10-19 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.1 | 0.5 | +0.461 | High | +28.73 |
| 2026-08-14 | New Loans | -340.0 | -50.0 | -2.943 | Medium | -26.62 |
| 2026-09-30 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | +0.574 | High | +23.05 |
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.4 | 3.43 | -1.133 | Low | -17.85 |
| 2026-09-15 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | -0.612 | High | -17.40 |
| 2026-09-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | -1.602 | Low | -14.83 |
| 2026-10-19 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.2 | 1.1 | +0.308 | Medium | +12.81 |
| 2026-09-30 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 49.3 | +0.285 | High | +11.47 |
| 2026-10-14 | Balance of Trade Yuan | 905.97 | 805.0 | +0.587 | Low | +10.87 |
| 2026-10-19 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.5 | 4.4 | +0.173 | High | +10.78 |
| 2026-10-14 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.277 | Medium | +10.25 |
| 2026-08-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | +1.246 | Medium | +10.04 |
| 2026-10-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.2 | 7.4 | -0.516 | Low | -9.56 |
| 2026-08-09 | CPI YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | +1.087 | Medium | +8.76 |
| 2026-10-14 | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.9 | 1.0 | +0.145 | High | +8.05 |
| 2026-09-14 | New Loans | 60.0 | 400.0 | -0.431 | Medium | -7.98 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.0 | +0.580 | Medium | +7.96 |
| 2026-09-30 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.6 | 51.1 | +0.281 | Medium | +7.52 |
| 2026-10-14 | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.0 | 4.5 | -0.200 | Medium | -7.42 |
| 2026-08-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.1 | 5.3 | -1.541 | Low | -6.97 |
| 2026-08-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.1 | 5.3 | -1.541 | Low | -6.97 |
| 2026-08-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | +0.544 | High | +6.57 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.4 | 50.6 | +0.453 | Medium | +6.51 |
| 2026-10-12 | Vehicle Sales YoY | -8.4 | -4.3 | -0.339 | Low | -5.99 |
| 2026-10-14 | Exports YoY | 36.3 | 25.5 | +0.104 | High | +5.77 |
| 2026-09-15 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.8 | -0.192 | High | -5.46 |
| 2026-08-09 | CPI MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | +0.670 | Medium | +5.40 |
| 2026-10-14 | Balance of Trade | 133.53 | 118.1 | +0.085 | High | +4.74 |
| 2026-09-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.277 | Medium | -4.57 |
| 2026-09-03 | PMI | 51.9 | 51.0 | +0.624 | Low | +4.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | Industrial Capacity Utilization | 73.1 | 73.5 | -0.214 | Low | -4.44 |
| 2026-08-17 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 1.5 | -0.230 | High | -3.35 |
| 2026-10-14 | Imports YoY | 31.0 | 24.5 | +0.055 | High | +3.05 |
| 2026-08-17 | Unemployment Rate | 5.2 | 5.1 | -0.624 | Low | -3.03 |
| 2026-08-31 | NBS General PMI | 49.5 | 50.2 | -0.358 | Low | -2.40 |
| 2026-09-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.438 | 3.43 | +0.302 | Low | +2.38 |
| 2026-09-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.6 | -0.251 | Low | -2.33 |
| 2026-08-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.7 | 7.9 | -0.484 | Low | -2.19 |
| 2026-08-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.7 | 7.9 | -0.484 | Low | -2.19 |
| 2026-08-31 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | 49.5 | -0.158 | Medium | -2.12 |
| 2026-10-19 | House Price Index YoY | -2.8 | -3.1 | +0.051 | Medium | +2.11 |
| 2026-07-31 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | 50.0 | -0.313 | Medium | -2.05 |
| 2026-10-14 | New Loans | 1080.0 | 975.0 | +0.055 | Medium | +2.02 |
| 2026-09-15 | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.8 | +0.071 | High | +2.01 |
| 2026-07-31 | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.4 | -0.560 | Low | -1.83 |
| 2026-08-14 | Current Account | 195.1 | 150.0 | +0.190 | Medium | +1.72 |
| 2026-10-22 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -4.3 | -4.8 | +0.030 | Medium | +1.35 |
| 2026-08-17 | Industrial Production YoY | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.085 | High | -1.23 |
| 2026-08-09 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.142 | Medium | +1.15 |
| 2026-10-19 | Industrial Production YoY | 5.5 | 5.4 | +0.016 | High | +0.98 |
| 2026-08-14 | New Yuan Loans | -340.0 | 45.0 | -0.102 | Medium | -0.92 |
| 2026-09-30 | PMI | 52.4 | 52.3 | +0.068 | Low | +0.91 |
| 2026-09-09 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 3.7 | -0.049 | Medium | -0.80 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | -6.7 | -6.2 | -0.076 | Medium | -0.74 |
| 2026-09-08 | Balance of Trade Yuan | 809.3 | 795.0 | +0.084 | Low | +0.68 |
| 2026-08-07 | Balance of Trade Yuan | 767.07 | 740.0 | +0.171 | Low | +0.66 |
| 2026-10-19 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | -7.2 | -7.3 | +0.013 | Medium | +0.54 |
| 2026-09-18 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -5.3 | -5.8 | +0.025 | Medium | +0.51 |
| 2026-09-14 | Total Social Financing | 1660.0 | 2040.0 | -0.044 | Low | -0.40 |
| 2026-08-07 | Balance of Trade | 112.5 | 107.0 | +0.034 | High | +0.39 |
| 2026-10-14 | Total Social Financing | 3550.0 | 3270.0 | +0.020 | Low | +0.37 |
| 2026-09-15 | House Price Index YoY | -3.0 | -3.1 | +0.017 | Medium | +0.32 |
| 2026-09-28 | Industrial Profits YoY | 15.7 | 18.0 | -0.025 | Low | -0.32 |
| 2026-08-17 | House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.4 | +0.031 | Medium | +0.30 |
| 2026-09-08 | Imports YoY | 28.2 | 30.0 | -0.012 | High | -0.30 |
| 2026-08-07 | Exports YoY | 23.9 | 22.2 | +0.019 | High | +0.22 |
| 2026-08-14 | Total Social Financing | 1410.0 | 1200.0 | +0.041 | Low | +0.19 |
| 2026-08-14 | Total Social Financing | 1410.0 | 1200.0 | +0.041 | Low | +0.19 |
| 2026-08-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.419 | 3.42 | -0.038 | Low | -0.15 |
| 2026-08-27 | Industrial Profits YoY | 17.6 | 16.0 | +0.020 | Low | +0.12 |
| 2026-08-21 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -6.2 | -6.0 | -0.010 | Medium | -0.10 |
| 2026-10-27 | Industrial Profits YoY | 15.5 | 15.2 | +0.004 | Low | +0.10 |
| 2026-07-31 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.0 | -0.006 | High | -0.06 |
| 2026-09-29 | Current Account | 193.7 | 195.1 | -0.005 | Low | -0.06 |
| 2026-08-07 | Imports YoY | 27.5 | 27.9 | -0.003 | High | -0.03 |
| 2026-08-31 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 49.7 | +0.001 | High | +0.02 |
| 2026-08-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | Exports YoY | 25.0 | 25.0 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | Balance of Trade | 119.1 | 119.1 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | -7.2 | -7.2 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.1 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.8 | 4.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |