China
+6.1
▬
vs 1w ago (+5.1)
China economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+6.1
1 Week Ago
+5.1
Releases (90d)
128
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CSI 300 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY +5.11z
- Manufacturing PMI +3.63z
- Services PMI +2.83z
- Exports YoY +1.10z
- Exports YoY +1.10z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Inflation Rate MoM -2.03z
- Inflation Rate YoY -0.89z
- FDI (YTD) YoY -1.30z
- Unemployment Rate -1.22z
- CPI -0.49z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (128 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | 1.8 | -0.4 | +5.109 | Medium | +227.60 |
| 2026-03-04 | Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 50.2 | +3.630 | High | +183.80 |
| 2026-03-04 | Services PMI | 56.7 | 52.3 | +2.833 | Medium | +95.63 |
| 2026-03-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.0 | 0.3 | -2.027 | Medium | -76.81 |
| 2026-03-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.889 | High | -50.52 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 39.6 | 7.1 | +1.099 | Medium | +42.60 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 39.6 | 7.1 | +1.099 | Medium | +42.60 |
| 2026-03-02 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -5.7 | -1.0 | -1.301 | Medium | -41.95 |
| 2026-03-04 | PMI | 55.4 | 51.4 | +2.377 | Low | +40.12 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.497 | High | +28.90 |
| 2026-03-16 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.1 | -1.219 | Low | -27.14 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.434 | High | +25.27 |
| 2026-02-11 | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.2 | 0.4 | +0.711 | High | +22.16 |
| 2026-02-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.0 | 8.2 | +1.826 | Low | +20.34 |
| 2026-03-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.428 | 3.4 | +1.076 | Low | +19.47 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.497 | Medium | +19.27 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.497 | Medium | +19.27 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.497 | Medium | +19.27 |
| 2026-03-09 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.497 | Medium | +18.83 |
| 2026-03-08 | CPI | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.491 | Medium | -18.17 |
| 2026-01-14 | Imports YoY | 5.7 | 0.9 | +1.081 | High | +17.65 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.434 | Medium | +16.84 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.434 | Medium | +16.84 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.434 | Medium | +16.84 |
| 2026-03-09 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.434 | Medium | +16.46 |
| 2026-02-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 6.1 | 6.3 | -1.313 | Low | -14.63 |
| 2026-02-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.399 | 3.36 | +1.517 | Low | +14.37 |
| 2026-03-16 | Industrial Production YoY | 6.3 | 5.1 | +0.195 | High | +13.04 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 1.5 | 1250.0 | -0.640 | Low | -12.40 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 1.5 | 1250.0 | -0.640 | Low | -12.40 |
| 2026-03-09 | Producer Price Index YoY | -0.9 | -1.1 | -0.324 | Medium | -12.26 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 90.98 | 177.4 | -0.312 | Medium | -12.10 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 90.98 | 177.4 | -0.312 | Medium | -12.10 |
| 2026-01-19 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.2 | 1.0 | +0.978 | Medium | +11.94 |
| 2026-02-11 | CPI | 0.2 | 0.4 | +0.552 | Medium | +11.47 |
| 2026-02-10 | CPI | 0.2 | 0.4 | +0.552 | Medium | +11.21 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 13.8 | 6.3 | +0.241 | Medium | +9.36 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 13.8 | 6.3 | +0.241 | Medium | +9.36 |
| 2026-03-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.0 | 8.8 | +0.425 | Low | +9.05 |
| 2026-03-13 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.0 | 8.8 | +0.425 | Low | +8.84 |
| 2026-01-19 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.2 | 1.0 | +0.659 | Medium | +8.05 |
| 2026-02-11 | CPI | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.368 | Medium | +7.65 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 1503.49 | 950.0 | +0.373 | Low | +7.23 |
| 2026-03-16 | Industrial Production YoY | 6.3 | 5.3 | +0.156 | Medium | +6.97 |
| 2026-01-15 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 8.5 | 8.0 | +1.170 | Low | +6.52 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 637.55 | 1250.0 | -0.314 | Low | -6.08 |
| 2026-02-11 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.290 | Medium | +6.02 |
| 2026-03-09 | Balance of Trade | 637.55 | 1250.0 | -0.314 | Low | -5.94 |
| 2026-01-27 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 50.3 | -0.269 | High | -5.93 |
| 2026-01-14 | Vehicle Sales YoY | -6.2 | 3.1 | -1.060 | Low | -5.77 |
| 2026-02-04 | Services PMI | 52.3 | 51.8 | +0.325 | Medium | +5.75 |
| 2026-03-04 | NBS General PMI | 49.5 | 50.2 | -0.339 | Low | -5.73 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +5.07 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +5.07 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +5.07 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +5.07 |
| 2026-01-14 | Exports YoY | 6.6 | 3.0 | +0.288 | High | +4.70 |
| 2026-03-13 | New Loans | 900.0 | 865.0 | +0.110 | Medium | +4.56 |
| 2026-03-13 | New Loans | 900.0 | 865.0 | +0.110 | Medium | +4.56 |
| 2025-12-31 | Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.9 | +0.384 | High | +4.54 |
| 2026-02-02 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.1 | +0.178 | High | +4.51 |
| 2026-01-31 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 50.3 | -0.269 | Medium | -4.34 |
| 2026-02-04 | PMI | 51.6 | 50.9 | +0.420 | Low | +3.71 |
| 2026-01-15 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 6.4 | 6.3 | +0.657 | Low | +3.66 |
| 2026-02-13 | New Loans | 4710.0 | 5000.0 | -0.157 | Medium | -3.42 |
| 2026-02-13 | New Loans | 4710.0 | 5000.0 | -0.157 | Medium | -3.42 |
| 2026-02-13 | New Loans | 4710.0 | 5000.0 | -0.157 | Medium | -3.42 |
| 2026-01-15 | New Loans | 910.0 | 820.0 | +0.298 | Medium | +3.31 |
| 2026-03-16 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.8 | 2.5 | +0.048 | High | +3.22 |
| 2026-01-19 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.5 | 4.4 | +0.168 | High | +3.09 |
| 2026-03-04 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 49.8 | -0.091 | Medium | -3.06 |
| 2026-01-19 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | -3.8 | -3.0 | -0.248 | Medium | -3.03 |
| 2026-01-31 | NBS General PMI | 49.8 | 50.5 | -0.337 | Low | -2.72 |
| 2026-02-11 | Producer Price Index YoY | -1.4 | -1.5 | -0.119 | Medium | -2.47 |
| 2026-01-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.8 | 0.9 | +0.158 | High | +2.30 |
| 2025-12-31 | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.8 | +0.269 | Medium | +2.12 |
| 2026-02-13 | House Price Index YoY | -3.1 | -2.6 | -0.097 | Medium | -2.12 |
| 2026-02-13 | House Price Index YoY | -3.1 | -2.6 | -0.097 | Medium | -2.12 |
| 2026-03-20 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -5.7 | -5.0 | -0.039 | Medium | -1.89 |
| 2026-01-19 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.9 | 1.2 | -0.100 | High | -1.84 |
| 2026-01-19 | Industrial Capacity Utilization | 74.9 | 74.4 | +0.276 | Low | +1.68 |
| 2025-12-31 | NBS General PMI | 50.7 | 49.9 | +0.390 | Low | +1.54 |
| 2026-01-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.358 | 3.35 | +0.312 | Low | +1.44 |
| 2025-12-31 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 49.8 | +0.121 | High | +1.43 |
| 2026-01-19 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -9.5 | -6.8 | -0.110 | Medium | -1.34 |
| 2026-01-05 | Services PMI | 52.0 | 51.8 | +0.130 | Medium | +1.15 |
| 2026-01-09 | Producer Price Index YoY | -1.9 | -2.0 | -0.089 | Medium | -0.86 |
| 2026-01-05 | PMI | 51.3 | 51.0 | +0.180 | Low | +0.79 |
| 2025-12-27 | Industrial Profits YoY | 0.1 | 2.2 | -0.191 | Low | -0.69 |
| 2026-03-16 | House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.3 | +0.015 | Medium | +0.68 |
| 2026-03-16 | House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.3 | +0.015 | Medium | +0.68 |
| 2026-01-19 | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 5.0 | +0.033 | High | +0.61 |
| 2026-03-14 | Total Social Financing | 2380.0 | 2130.0 | +0.026 | Low | +0.56 |
| 2026-03-13 | Total Social Financing | 2380.0 | 2130.0 | +0.026 | Low | +0.54 |
| 2026-01-19 | House Price Index YoY | -2.7 | -2.6 | -0.019 | Medium | -0.24 |
| 2026-01-15 | Total Social Financing | 2210.0 | 2000.0 | +0.023 | Low | +0.13 |
| 2026-01-31 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.3 | 50.0 | -0.005 | High | -0.13 |
| 2026-02-14 | Total Social Financing | 7220.0 | 7500.0 | -0.008 | Low | -0.09 |
| 2025-12-31 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.2 | +0.007 | High | +0.08 |
| 2026-01-14 | Balance of Trade | 808.8 | 820.0 | -0.009 | Low | -0.05 |
| 2025-12-31 | Current Account | 198.7 | 195.6 | +0.009 | Low | +0.04 |
| 2026-03-04 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | 49.1 | -0.001 | High | -0.04 |
| 2026-03-13 | New Yuan Loans | 900.0 | 979.0 | -0.001 | Medium | -0.04 |
| 2026-01-15 | New Yuan Loans | 910.0 | 800.0 | +0.002 | Medium | +0.02 |
| 2025-12-22 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2025-12-22 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2025-12-22 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-01-06 | Caixin Services PMI | 52.0 | 52.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-01-09 | CPI | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-01-19 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 4.5 | 4.5 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-01-19 | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.1 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-01-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-01-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-01-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-02 | Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.3 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-14 | New Yuan Loans | 4710.0 | 4800.0 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |