China
-3.5
▼
vs 1w ago (-0.9)
China economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-3.5
1 Week Ago
-0.9
Releases (90d)
129
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CSI 300 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY +5.09z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY +1.38z
- Manufacturing PMI +3.63z
- Inflation Rate MoM +2.05z
- Services PMI +2.83z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Inflation Rate MoM -3.28z
- New Loans -2.63z
- Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY -1.85z
- Producer Price Index YoY -1.54z
- Inflation Rate YoY -0.71z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (129 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | -0.1 | -3.281 | Medium | -133.24 |
| 2026-05-14 | New Loans | -10.0 | 320.0 | -2.635 | Medium | -114.70 |
| 2026-05-18 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | -1.6 | 1.6 | -1.849 | Medium | -88.29 |
| 2026-05-11 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.8 | 1.5 | -1.538 | Medium | -62.46 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | 1.8 | -0.4 | +5.086 | Medium | +56.64 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 5.0 | 4.8 | +1.376 | High | +47.05 |
| 2026-03-04 | Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 50.2 | +3.630 | High | +45.95 |
| 2026-05-11 | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.2 | 0.8 | -0.714 | High | -43.48 |
| 2026-04-10 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.7 | -0.2 | +2.050 | Medium | +40.69 |
| 2026-05-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.6 | 5.8 | -1.417 | Low | -30.84 |
| 2026-05-18 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.2 | 2.0 | -0.365 | High | -26.13 |
| 2026-04-16 | Industrial Capacity Utilization | 73.6 | 78.3 | -2.288 | Low | -26.07 |
| 2026-03-04 | Services PMI | 56.7 | 52.3 | +2.833 | Medium | +23.91 |
| 2026-03-27 | Industrial Profits YoY | 15.2 | 0.9 | +3.036 | Low | +21.80 |
| 2026-04-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.342 | 3.4 | -2.196 | Low | -20.32 |
| 2026-05-18 | Industrial Production YoY | 4.1 | 5.9 | -0.255 | High | -18.24 |
| 2026-03-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.0 | 0.3 | -1.914 | Medium | -18.13 |
| 2026-04-13 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.7 | 5.9 | -1.393 | Low | -14.81 |
| 2026-04-13 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.7 | 5.9 | -1.393 | Low | -14.81 |
| 2026-05-06 | PMI | 53.1 | 51.8 | +0.783 | Low | +14.17 |
| 2026-05-18 | Unemployment Rate | 5.2 | 5.3 | +0.587 | Low | +14.01 |
| 2026-04-16 | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.2 | -1.196 | Low | -13.63 |
| 2026-03-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.892 | High | -12.68 |
| 2026-04-14 | Balance of Trade | 51.13 | 112.0 | -0.350 | High | -11.42 |
| 2026-05-09 | Exports YoY | 14.1 | 7.9 | +0.190 | High | +11.03 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 39.6 | 7.1 | +1.106 | Medium | +10.72 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 39.6 | 7.1 | +1.106 | Medium | +10.72 |
| 2026-04-16 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 5.0 | 4.8 | +0.312 | High | +10.66 |
| 2026-03-02 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -5.7 | -1.0 | -1.312 | Medium | -10.57 |
| 2026-03-04 | PMI | 55.4 | 51.4 | +2.429 | Low | +10.25 |
| 2026-04-14 | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 11.1 | +0.307 | High | +10.02 |
| 2026-04-13 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 8.5 | 8.9 | -0.846 | Low | -9.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 8.5 | 8.9 | -0.846 | Low | -9.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | Producer Price Index YoY | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.444 | Medium | -8.80 |
| 2026-04-03 | PMI | 51.5 | 53.1 | -0.941 | Low | -7.94 |
| 2026-05-09 | Imports YoY | 25.3 | 15.2 | +0.136 | High | +7.88 |
| 2026-05-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.411 | 3.4 | +0.416 | Low | +7.71 |
| 2026-04-13 | New Loans | 2990.0 | 3465.0 | -0.350 | Medium | -7.45 |
| 2026-04-13 | New Loans | 2990.0 | 3465.0 | -0.350 | Medium | -7.45 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.500 | High | +7.27 |
| 2026-04-10 | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.0 | 1.2 | +0.238 | High | +7.08 |
| 2026-03-16 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.1 | -1.220 | Low | -6.79 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.437 | High | +6.35 |
| 2026-04-14 | Exports YoY | 2.5 | 8.3 | -0.169 | High | -5.51 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.500 | Medium | +4.85 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.500 | Medium | +4.85 |
| 2026-03-10 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.500 | Medium | +4.85 |
| 2026-05-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 8.6 | 8.5 | +0.221 | Low | +4.82 |
| 2026-04-30 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 49.9 | -0.153 | Medium | -4.80 |
| 2026-03-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.428 | 3.4 | +1.060 | Low | +4.79 |
| 2026-03-09 | Exports YoY | 21.8 | 7.1 | +0.500 | Medium | +4.74 |
| 2026-04-30 | NBS General PMI | 50.1 | 50.7 | -0.293 | Low | -4.62 |
| 2026-03-08 | CPI | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.491 | Medium | -4.54 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.437 | Medium | +4.24 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.437 | Medium | +4.24 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.437 | Medium | +4.24 |
| 2026-03-09 | Imports YoY | 19.8 | 6.3 | +0.437 | Medium | +4.14 |
| 2026-05-15 | Current Account | 184.1 | 215.0 | -0.087 | Medium | -3.89 |
| 2026-05-15 | Current Account | 184.1 | 215.0 | -0.087 | Medium | -3.89 |
| 2026-04-16 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.7 | 2.3 | -0.106 | High | -3.62 |
| 2026-03-16 | Industrial Production YoY | 6.3 | 5.1 | +0.196 | High | +3.28 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 1.5 | 1250.0 | -0.643 | Low | -3.12 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 1.5 | 1250.0 | -0.643 | Low | -3.12 |
| 2026-03-09 | Producer Price Index YoY | -0.9 | -1.1 | -0.323 | Medium | -3.06 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 90.98 | 177.4 | -0.314 | Medium | -3.04 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 90.98 | 177.4 | -0.314 | Medium | -3.04 |
| 2026-05-14 | Total Social Financing | 620.0 | 1500.0 | -0.133 | Low | -2.90 |
| 2026-04-24 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -7.3 | -5.4 | -0.098 | Medium | -2.69 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 13.8 | 6.3 | +0.243 | Medium | +2.35 |
| 2026-03-10 | Imports YoY | 13.8 | 6.3 | +0.243 | Medium | +2.35 |
| 2026-03-14 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.0 | 8.8 | +0.428 | Low | +2.27 |
| 2026-03-13 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.0 | 8.8 | +0.428 | Low | +2.22 |
| 2026-04-16 | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY | 1.7 | 1.9 | -0.097 | Medium | -2.22 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 1503.49 | 950.0 | +0.375 | Low | +1.82 |
| 2026-03-16 | Industrial Production YoY | 6.3 | 5.3 | +0.158 | Medium | +1.75 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 637.55 | 1250.0 | -0.315 | Low | -1.53 |
| 2026-03-09 | Balance of Trade | 637.55 | 1250.0 | -0.315 | Low | -1.49 |
| 2026-03-04 | NBS General PMI | 49.5 | 50.2 | -0.346 | Low | -1.46 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +1.27 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +1.27 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +1.27 |
| 2026-03-10 | Balance of Trade | 213.62 | 177.4 | +0.131 | Medium | +1.27 |
| 2026-03-31 | NBS General PMI | 50.5 | 50.2 | +0.148 | Low | +1.17 |
| 2026-03-13 | New Loans | 900.0 | 865.0 | +0.103 | Medium | +1.07 |
| 2026-03-13 | New Loans | 900.0 | 865.0 | +0.103 | Medium | +1.07 |
| 2026-04-16 | Industrial Production YoY | 5.7 | 5.5 | +0.030 | High | +1.04 |
| 2026-03-31 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.9 | +0.061 | Medium | +0.96 |
| 2026-03-16 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.8 | 2.5 | +0.049 | High | +0.81 |
| 2026-03-04 | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 49.8 | -0.092 | Medium | -0.77 |
| 2026-05-09 | Balance of Trade | 84.82 | 83.3 | +0.012 | High | +0.68 |
| 2026-05-14 | New Yuan Loans | -10.0 | 300.0 | -0.012 | Medium | -0.53 |
| 2026-03-20 | FDI (YTD) YoY | -5.7 | -5.0 | -0.039 | Medium | -0.48 |
| 2026-04-27 | Industrial Profits YoY | 15.5 | 18.0 | -0.027 | Low | -0.39 |
| 2026-04-16 | House Price Index YoY | -3.4 | -3.5 | +0.015 | Medium | +0.33 |
| 2026-03-16 | House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.3 | +0.015 | Medium | +0.17 |
| 2026-03-16 | House Price Index YoY | -3.2 | -3.3 | +0.015 | Medium | +0.17 |
| 2026-03-16 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | +0.031 | Low | +0.17 |
| 2026-03-13 | Total Social Financing | 2380.0 | 2130.0 | +0.027 | Low | +0.14 |
| 2026-03-14 | Total Social Financing | 2380.0 | 2130.0 | +0.027 | Low | +0.14 |
| 2026-04-13 | Total Social Financing | 5230.0 | 5400.0 | -0.007 | Low | -0.08 |
| 2026-04-13 | Total Social Financing | 5230.0 | 5400.0 | -0.007 | Low | -0.08 |
| 2026-04-30 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.1 | +0.002 | High | +0.07 |
| 2026-03-31 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | 50.1 | +0.002 | High | +0.05 |
| 2026-03-27 | Current Account | 243.8 | 242.1 | +0.004 | Low | +0.03 |
| 2026-04-13 | New Yuan Loans | 2990.0 | 3400.0 | -0.001 | Medium | -0.03 |
| 2026-04-13 | New Yuan Loans | 2990.0 | 3400.0 | -0.001 | Medium | -0.03 |
| 2026-03-04 | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | 49.1 | -0.001 | High | -0.01 |
| 2026-03-13 | New Yuan Loans | 900.0 | 979.0 | -0.001 | Medium | -0.01 |
| 2026-02-23 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | House Price Index YoY | -3.5 | -3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Prime Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Loan Prime Rate 5Y | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |