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Economic Surprises Germany
Germany +9.5 ▲ vs 1w ago (+7.6)
Germany economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+9.5
1 Week Ago
+7.6
Releases (90d)
148
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with DAX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
Top Positive Surprises
Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (148 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.2 50.5 +1.599 High +109.34
2026-06-30 HICP MoM -0.2 0.1 +5.384 Low +70.48
2026-06-30 CPI YoY 2.3 2.6 +2.625 Medium +68.72
2026-07-09 Imports MoM -2.5 0.1 -3.908 Low -62.99
2026-07-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.2 49.8 +1.331 Medium +60.67
2026-06-16 Economic Sentiment 10.5 -5.8 +3.158 Medium +59.84
2026-05-29 CPI MoM -0.2 0.1 +3.186 High +59.74
2026-06-30 Retail Sales MoM 1.1 -0.1 +2.149 Medium +56.26
2026-05-29 Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 0.1 +4.393 Medium +54.92
2026-06-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 0.1 +3.399 Low +44.50
2026-06-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.0 49.9 -1.803 Medium -40.15
2026-06-23 S&P Global Services PMI 46.8 49.0 -1.683 Medium -37.49
2026-07-27 Ifo Business Climate 86.6 86.0 +0.489 High +35.85
2026-07-21 Economic Sentiment 26.3 15.1 +0.834 Medium +35.45
2026-07-14 Wholesale Prices MoM -0.7 0.5 +0.967 Medium +35.00
2026-05-29 CPI YoY 2.6 2.9 +2.353 Medium +29.41
2026-07-09 Exports MoM 0.9 -0.3 +0.912 Medium +29.39
2026-07-27 Ifo Expectations 86.7 84.8 +1.096 Low +26.78
2026-07-07 Industrial Production MoM 0.9 0.2 +0.730 Medium +22.48
2026-06-16 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 10.5 -6.0 +0.789 High +22.41
2026-06-30 HICP YoY 2.4 2.6 +1.681 Low +22.00
2026-04-30 Retail Sales MoM -2.0 -0.1 -3.402 Medium -21.76
2026-07-24 S&P Global Services PMI 49.6 49.0 +0.459 Medium +20.93
2026-07-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.5 48.0 +1.479 Low +20.76
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.1 +2.156 High +20.69
2026-07-03 S&P Global Services PMI 48.6 46.8 +1.442 Low +20.23
2026-07-27 Ifo Current Conditions 86.5 87.3 -0.772 Low -18.86
2026-06-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.6 +0.442 High +17.36
2026-05-29 HICP MoM -0.1 0.2 +2.692 Low +16.83
2026-07-06 S&P Global Construction PMI 44.8 42.0 +1.094 Low +16.44
2026-05-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.9 51.0 -1.025 High -15.97
2026-06-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.5 -0.470 High -15.71
2026-06-09 Exports MoM 0.9 -0.3 +0.912 Medium +14.70
2026-06-15 Wholesale Prices MoM -0.6 0.8 +0.705 Medium +13.06
2026-05-29 Unemployment Rate 6.3 6.4 +0.967 Medium +12.09
2026-07-09 Balance of Trade 19.1 14.8 +0.249 High +12.03
2026-07-13 Current Account 10.4 15.1 -0.656 Low -11.60
2026-05-29 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 0.2 +1.700 Low +10.62
2026-05-22 Ifo Business Climate 84.9 84.2 +0.583 High +9.30
2026-07-03 New Car Sales YoY 15.7 -4.2 +0.630 Low +8.84
2026-05-22 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.4 0.3 +0.827 Medium +8.80
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 42.1 49.0 -2.310 Low -8.68
2026-04-30 Retail Sales YoY -2.0 0.5 -1.340 Medium -8.57
2026-07-21 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 26.3 18.0 +0.132 High +8.44
2026-06-30 Employment Change -1.0 10.0 -0.304 Medium -7.95
2026-05-29 Employment Change -12.0 10.0 -0.607 Medium -7.59
2026-05-29 Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.9 +0.396 High +7.43
2026-04-30 Employment Change 20.0 4.0 +1.104 Medium +7.06
2026-06-24 Ifo Current Conditions 87.0 86.4 +0.585 Low +6.67
2026-05-21 S&P Global Services PMI 47.8 47.0 +0.638 Medium +6.63
2026-04-30 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.3 -0.982 Medium -6.28
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.620 High +5.95
2026-06-19 Producer Price Index YoY 2.2 2.5 +0.291 Medium +5.92
2026-06-24 Ifo Expectations 84.1 85.0 -0.518 Low -5.90
2026-06-11 Current Account 13.8 20.2 -0.668 Low -5.64
2026-07-20 Producer Price Index MoM -0.3 -0.2 +0.261 Low +5.42
2026-05-22 Ifo Current Conditions 86.1 85.1 +0.990 Low +5.26
2026-05-29 HICP YoY 2.7 2.8 +0.780 Low +4.88
2026-04-29 CPI YoY 2.9 3.0 +0.758 Medium +4.74
2026-05-12 Economic Sentiment -10.2 -19.2 +0.527 Medium +4.45
2026-04-29 HICP YoY 2.9 3.1 +1.410 Low +4.41
2026-06-30 Unemployed Persons 2.984 3.012 +0.153 Medium +4.00
2026-07-14 Wholesale Prices YoY 4.9 6.2 +0.109 Medium +3.95
2026-05-08 Industrial Production MoM -0.7 0.5 -0.501 Medium -3.85
2026-07-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.3 50.0 +0.285 Low +3.82
2026-06-08 Factory Orders MoM -3.8 -1.2 -0.241 Medium -3.79
2026-05-13 Wholesale Prices MoM 2.0 1.0 -0.403 Medium -3.48
2026-05-07 Factory Orders MoM 5.0 1.0 +0.445 Medium +3.34
2026-05-20 Producer Price Index YoY 1.7 1.5 -0.324 Medium -3.29
2026-06-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.6 +0.245 Low +3.21
2026-05-08 Imports MoM 5.1 0.8 +0.808 Low +3.11
2026-06-19 Producer Price Index MoM 0.3 0.7 +0.298 Low +3.03
2026-06-01 Retail Sales YoY -0.3 -1.4 +0.211 Medium +2.82
2026-04-30 Import Prices YoY 2.3 1.6 -0.807 Low -2.58
2026-05-13 Current Account 23.6 18.4 +0.596 Low +2.57
2026-07-24 Consumer Confidence -29.6 -28.5 -0.037 High -2.52
2026-05-29 Unemployed Persons 2.987 3.021 +0.185 Medium +2.31
2026-05-08 Exports MoM 0.5 -1.7 +0.295 Medium +2.27
2026-05-08 Balance of Trade 14.3 18.4 -0.191 High -2.20
2026-06-15 Wholesale Prices YoY 5.9 7.6 +0.117 Medium +2.16
2026-04-29 HICP MoM 0.5 0.8 +0.673 Low +2.10
2026-05-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.6 48.4 +0.196 Medium +2.03
2026-07-06 Factory Orders MoM 1.9 1.2 +0.065 Medium +1.95
2026-06-25 Consumer Confidence -29.2 -27.6 -0.055 High -1.93
2026-05-22 Consumer Confidence -29.8 -34.0 +0.118 High +1.88
2026-05-12 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index -10.2 -19.8 +0.139 High +1.76
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 48.1 47.8 +0.235 Low +1.65
2026-05-22 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.4 0.3 +0.280 Low +1.49
2026-04-29 CPI MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.152 High +1.42
2026-06-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.8 48.6 +0.195 Low +1.37
2026-06-30 Import Prices MoM 0.7 0.6 -0.103 Low -1.35
2026-04-29 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.8 +0.425 Low +1.33
2026-04-29 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.209 Medium +1.31
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.190 Low +1.28
2026-04-29 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 3.0 +0.128 High +1.20
2026-06-04 S&P Global Construction PMI 42.4 42.0 +0.156 Low +1.12
2026-04-30 Unemployed Persons 3.006 2.979 -0.149 Medium -0.95
2026-05-13 Wholesale Prices YoY 6.3 5.2 -0.110 Medium -0.95
2026-05-22 Ifo Expectations 83.8 83.5 +0.176 Low +0.93
2026-06-03 New Car Sales YoY 0.1 4.2 -0.130 Low -0.91
2026-06-16 ZEW Current Conditions -81.0 -78.0 -0.096 Low -0.90
2026-06-30 Import Prices YoY 6.8 6.6 -0.056 Low -0.73
2026-05-29 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.7 2.8 +0.114 Low +0.71
2026-06-09 Balance of Trade 14.5 15.0 -0.029 High -0.69
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.2 +0.186 Low +0.65
2026-04-29 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 3.1 +0.205 Low +0.64
2026-06-01 Retail Sales MoM -0.3 -0.4 +0.045 Medium +0.60
2026-05-20 Producer Price Index MoM 1.2 1.0 -0.104 Low -0.53
2026-04-30 Import Prices MoM 3.6 3.0 -0.124 Low -0.40
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.4 48.3 +0.098 Low +0.36
2026-05-29 Import Prices MoM 1.2 1.1 -0.056 Low -0.35
2026-05-07 New Car Sales YoY 2.7 7.5 -0.085 Low -0.32
2026-07-21 ZEW Current Conditions -77.6 -77.8 +0.006 Low +0.14
2026-05-12 ZEW Current Conditions -77.8 -77.5 -0.010 Low -0.04
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.3 0.3 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 46.9 46.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-12 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-12 HICP MoM 0.5 0.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-12 CPI MoM 0.6 0.6 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-05-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-12 HICP YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-12 CPI YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-05-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-22 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-22 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-29 Import Prices YoY 5.3 5.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-09 Industrial Production MoM 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.7 2.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 CPI MoM -0.2 -0.2 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-06-12 Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 -0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 HICP YoY 2.7 2.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 CPI YoY 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-12 Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 -0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 HICP MoM -0.1 -0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-24 Ifo Business Climate 85.6 85.6 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-30 Unemployment Rate 6.3 6.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-10 CPI MoM -0.3 -0.3 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-07-10 CPI YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-10 HICP MoM -0.2 -0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 Inflation Rate MoM -0.3 -0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 -0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 HICP YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-20 Producer Price Index YoY 1.8 1.8 -0.000 Medium -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms