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Economic Surprises › Germany

Germany Economic Surprise Index

-0.4 ▬ vs 1w ago (-0.4)
Germany economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-0.4
1 Week Ago
-0.4
Releases (90d)
123
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with DAX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (123 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-09-30 Employment Change 12.0 1.0 +2.971 High +119.40
2026-09-15 Wholesale Prices MoM 0.9 0.1 -3.119 Medium -59.10
2026-09-30 Retail Sales YoY -0.4 0.1 -1.291 High -51.90
2026-09-01 Retail Sales YoY -2.5 0.2 -3.487 Medium -47.81
2026-10-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53.5 +0.644 High +44.04
2026-09-07 Industrial Production MoM -1.1 0.1 -2.480 Medium -39.05
2026-10-06 Factory Orders MoM -10.6 -1.0 -1.067 Medium -32.85
2026-10-23 S&P Global Services PMI 51.7 52.5 -0.604 Medium -27.55
2026-10-20 Producer Price Index YoY 6.7 5.3 -0.646 Medium -27.49
2026-10-26 Ifo Current Conditions 88.8 89.9 -1.030 Low -25.16
2026-09-24 Ifo Business Climate 89.9 89.0 +0.711 High +24.89
2026-10-14 Wholesale Prices MoM 1.9 0.7 -0.668 Medium -24.75
2026-10-06 S&P Global Construction PMI 43.5 48.0 -1.603 Low -24.67
2026-09-01 Retail Sales MoM -3.4 0.4 -1.707 Medium -23.40
2026-08-25 Ifo Business Climate 88.8 87.2 +1.291 High +22.58
2026-10-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.8 53.3 -0.489 Medium -22.27
2026-10-26 Ifo Expectations 91.6 90.0 +0.873 Low +21.32
2026-10-07 Industrial Production MoM 2.0 0.5 +0.620 Medium +19.53
2026-10-13 Current Account 10.3 17.2 -0.853 Low -15.44
2026-10-20 Producer Price Index MoM 1.9 0.8 -0.720 Low -15.31
2026-10-08 Exports MoM -0.8 0.8 -0.458 Medium -14.78
2026-09-03 S&P Global Services PMI 49.7 48.5 +0.981 Medium +14.09
2026-09-04 Factory Orders MoM 2.5 0.3 +0.815 Medium +11.98
2026-07-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.1 +1.242 High +11.92
2026-10-26 Ifo Business Climate 90.2 90.0 +0.156 High +11.46
2026-10-07 Industrial Production YoY 2.33 0.7 +0.715 Low +11.26
2026-10-20 ZEW Current Conditions -35.9 -45.0 +0.506 Low +10.77
2026-07-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.1 +1.090 High +10.45
2026-08-31 CPI YoY 2.9 3.0 +0.780 Medium +10.45
2026-08-25 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.545 High +9.53
2026-08-31 HICP YoY 2.9 3.1 +1.423 Low +9.53
2026-09-18 Producer Price Index MoM 1.1 0.4 -0.916 Low -9.30
2026-08-25 Ifo Current Conditions 88.5 87.0 +1.451 Low +8.46
2026-07-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.9 0.6 +1.282 Medium +8.20
2026-08-31 CPI MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.400 High +8.04
2026-08-06 Factory Orders MoM 3.1 0.3 +1.038 Medium +7.80
2026-09-24 Ifo Expectations 90.4 89.3 +0.605 Low +7.05
2026-09-08 Balance of Trade 21.3 16.0 +0.288 High +6.95
2026-08-31 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.492 Medium +6.60
2026-07-31 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.3 -0.989 Medium -6.47
2026-08-07 Exports MoM 0.9 0.2 +0.802 Medium +6.17
2026-09-18 Producer Price Index YoY 4.6 4.1 -0.298 Medium -6.06
2026-09-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.8 51.0 +0.817 Low +5.86
2026-07-30 CPI YoY 2.8 2.7 -0.867 Medium -5.54
2026-09-24 Ifo Current Conditions 89.5 89.0 +0.473 Low +5.52
2026-08-25 Ifo Expectations 89.1 87.5 +0.898 Low +5.24
2026-10-14 Wholesale Prices YoY 8.7 7.0 -0.129 Medium -4.77
2026-08-31 HICP MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.611 Low +4.10
2026-07-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.9 0.6 +0.425 High +4.08
2026-09-25 Consumer Confidence -30.6 -27.4 -0.112 High -4.01
2026-08-25 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.621 Low +3.62
2026-09-30 Import Prices MoM 1.0 0.7 -0.269 Low -3.60
2026-10-20 Economic Sentiment 28.1 30.2 -0.082 Medium -3.49
2026-08-25 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.0 0.9 +0.285 Medium +3.32
2026-10-08 New Car Sales YoY 9.0 4.0 +0.191 Low +3.08
2026-09-15 Economic Sentiment 34.7 39.8 -0.151 Medium -2.87
2026-08-20 Producer Price Index YoY 3.0 2.7 -0.272 Medium -2.83
2026-08-31 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 3.0 +0.129 High +2.59
2026-08-31 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.381 Low +2.55
2026-09-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.1 +0.182 Medium +2.49
2026-09-11 Current Account 21.2 18.7 +0.284 Low +2.46
2026-09-15 ZEW Current Conditions -47.1 -52.2 +0.245 Low +2.32
2026-08-07 Imports MoM 4.4 1.0 +0.515 Low +1.98
2026-08-03 Retail Sales YoY 0.0 -0.7 +0.258 Medium +1.81
2026-09-30 Unemployed Persons 3.012 3.0 -0.068 Medium -1.81
2026-08-27 Consumer Confidence -26.6 -29.6 +0.097 High +1.78
2026-08-14 Wholesale Prices MoM 0.2 0.4 +0.195 Medium +1.76
2026-10-08 Imports MoM 0.9 2.8 -0.103 Low -1.66
2026-07-30 CPI MoM 0.8 0.7 -0.172 High -1.65
2026-08-18 Economic Sentiment 34.2 30.1 +0.161 Medium +1.60
2026-08-07 Industrial Production MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.207 Medium +1.59
2026-08-12 Current Account 19.0 16.2 +0.368 Low +1.59
2026-08-20 Producer Price Index MoM 1.1 0.7 -0.299 Low -1.55
2026-08-03 Retail Sales MoM -1.1 -0.5 -0.216 Medium -1.51
2026-08-18 ZEW Current Conditions -61.1 -69.5 +0.303 Low +1.50
2026-08-31 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 3.1 +0.207 Low +1.39
2026-07-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.7 -0.143 High -1.37
2026-07-30 Inflation Rate MoM 0.8 0.7 -0.211 Medium -1.35
2026-10-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.091 Low +1.25
2026-10-20 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 28.1 30.0 -0.018 High -1.17
2026-08-07 Balance of Trade 15.4 17.4 -0.100 High -1.15
2026-10-08 Balance of Trade 19.5 19.0 +0.023 High +1.10
2026-09-15 Wholesale Prices YoY 6.8 6.2 -0.051 Medium -0.97
2026-09-30 Retail Sales MoM 1.3 1.5 -0.024 High -0.96
2026-09-30 Import Prices YoY 8.3 8.0 -0.070 Low -0.94
2026-07-30 HICP MoM 0.9 0.8 -0.229 Low -0.73
2026-08-28 Employment Change 4.0 5.0 -0.054 Medium -0.68
2026-08-28 Import Prices YoY 6.8 7.2 +0.104 Low +0.65
2026-08-18 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 34.2 30.0 +0.041 High +0.60
2026-08-25 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.0 0.9 +0.094 Low +0.55
2026-09-15 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 34.7 37.0 -0.018 High -0.51
2026-07-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.9 0.8 -0.143 Low -0.46
2026-08-06 New Car Sales YoY 1.2 5.1 -0.117 Low -0.44
2026-07-31 Employment Change 6.0 5.0 +0.054 Medium +0.35
2026-09-03 New Car Sales YoY 2.6 3.6 -0.043 Low -0.31
2026-08-28 Unemployed Persons 2.996 3.0 +0.023 Medium +0.28
2026-07-31 Unemployed Persons 2.993 2.989 -0.023 Medium -0.15
2026-07-29 Import Prices YoY 6.1 6.0 -0.031 Low -0.10
2026-08-14 Wholesale Prices YoY 5.3 5.4 +0.010 Medium +0.09
2026-07-29 Import Prices MoM -0.7 -0.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-30 HICP YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-12 CPI YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-08-12 HICP MoM 0.9 0.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.8 0.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-12 HICP YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-12 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.9 0.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-12 CPI MoM 0.8 0.8 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-08-28 Import Prices MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-28 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-09-10 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-10 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-10 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-10 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-30 Unemployment Rate 6.4 6.4 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-10-05 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-10-05 S&P Global Services PMI 52.9 52.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-10-13 Inflation Rate YoY 3.3 3.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-10-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-10-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 3.3 3.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-10-13 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.6 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms