Germany
+9.5
▲
vs 1w ago (+7.6)
Germany economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+9.5
1 Week Ago
+7.6
Releases (90d)
140
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with DAX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI +1.60z
- HICP MoM +5.38z
- CPI YoY +2.62z
- S&P Global Composite PMI +1.33z
- Economic Sentiment +3.16z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Imports MoM -3.91z
- S&P Global Composite PMI -1.80z
- S&P Global Services PMI -1.68z
- Retail Sales MoM -3.40z
- Ifo Current Conditions -0.77z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (140 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | 50.5 | +1.599 | High | +106.85 |
| 2026-06-30 | HICP MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | +5.384 | Low | +68.87 |
| 2026-06-30 | CPI YoY | 2.3 | 2.6 | +2.625 | Medium | +67.15 |
| 2026-07-09 | Imports MoM | -2.5 | 0.1 | -3.908 | Low | -61.55 |
| 2026-07-24 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.2 | 49.8 | +1.331 | Medium | +59.28 |
| 2026-06-16 | Economic Sentiment | 10.5 | -5.8 | +3.158 | Medium | +58.47 |
| 2026-05-29 | CPI MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | +3.186 | High | +58.37 |
| 2026-06-30 | Retail Sales MoM | 1.1 | -0.1 | +2.149 | Medium | +54.97 |
| 2026-05-29 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | +4.393 | Medium | +53.66 |
| 2026-06-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | +3.399 | Low | +43.48 |
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.0 | 49.9 | -1.803 | Medium | -39.23 |
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Services PMI | 46.8 | 49.0 | -1.683 | Medium | -36.63 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ifo Business Climate | 86.6 | 86.0 | +0.489 | High | +35.03 |
| 2026-07-21 | Economic Sentiment | 26.3 | 15.1 | +0.834 | Medium | +34.64 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wholesale Prices MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | +0.967 | Medium | +34.20 |
| 2026-05-29 | CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | +2.353 | Medium | +28.74 |
| 2026-07-09 | Exports MoM | 0.9 | -0.3 | +0.912 | Medium | +28.72 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ifo Expectations | 86.7 | 84.8 | +1.096 | Low | +26.17 |
| 2026-07-07 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.9 | 0.2 | +0.730 | Medium | +21.97 |
| 2026-06-16 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 10.5 | -6.0 | +0.789 | High | +21.90 |
| 2026-06-30 | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2.6 | +1.681 | Low | +21.50 |
| 2026-04-30 | Retail Sales MoM | -2.0 | -0.1 | -3.402 | Medium | -21.26 |
| 2026-07-24 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.6 | 49.0 | +0.459 | Medium | +20.45 |
| 2026-07-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 49.5 | 48.0 | +1.479 | Low | +20.28 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.3 | 0.1 | +2.156 | High | +20.22 |
| 2026-07-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 48.6 | 46.8 | +1.442 | Low | +19.77 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ifo Current Conditions | 86.5 | 87.3 | -0.772 | Low | -18.43 |
| 2026-06-30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.3 | 2.6 | +0.442 | High | +16.97 |
| 2026-05-29 | HICP MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | +2.692 | Low | +16.44 |
| 2026-07-06 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 44.8 | 42.0 | +1.094 | Low | +16.07 |
| 2026-05-21 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 51.0 | -1.025 | High | -15.60 |
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.0 | 50.5 | -0.470 | High | -15.35 |
| 2026-06-09 | Exports MoM | 0.9 | -0.3 | +0.912 | Medium | +14.36 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wholesale Prices MoM | -0.6 | 0.8 | +0.705 | Medium | +12.76 |
| 2026-05-29 | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.4 | +0.967 | Medium | +11.81 |
| 2026-07-09 | Balance of Trade | 19.1 | 14.8 | +0.249 | High | +11.75 |
| 2026-07-13 | Current Account | 10.4 | 15.1 | -0.656 | Low | -11.33 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | +1.700 | Low | +10.38 |
| 2026-05-22 | Ifo Business Climate | 84.9 | 84.2 | +0.583 | High | +9.09 |
| 2026-07-03 | New Car Sales YoY | 15.7 | -4.2 | +0.630 | Low | +8.64 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.827 | Medium | +8.60 |
| 2026-05-07 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 42.1 | 49.0 | -2.310 | Low | -8.49 |
| 2026-04-30 | Retail Sales YoY | -2.0 | 0.5 | -1.340 | Medium | -8.37 |
| 2026-07-21 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 26.3 | 18.0 | +0.132 | High | +8.24 |
| 2026-06-30 | Employment Change | -1.0 | 10.0 | -0.304 | Medium | -7.77 |
| 2026-05-29 | Employment Change | -12.0 | 10.0 | -0.607 | Medium | -7.42 |
| 2026-05-29 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | +0.396 | High | +7.26 |
| 2026-04-30 | Employment Change | 20.0 | 4.0 | +1.104 | Medium | +6.90 |
| 2026-06-24 | Ifo Current Conditions | 87.0 | 86.4 | +0.585 | Low | +6.51 |
| 2026-05-21 | S&P Global Services PMI | 47.8 | 47.0 | +0.638 | Medium | +6.48 |
| 2026-04-30 | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | -0.982 | Medium | -6.14 |
| 2026-04-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.620 | High | +5.81 |
| 2026-06-19 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.2 | 2.5 | +0.291 | Medium | +5.78 |
| 2026-06-24 | Ifo Expectations | 84.1 | 85.0 | -0.518 | Low | -5.77 |
| 2026-06-11 | Current Account | 13.8 | 20.2 | -0.668 | Low | -5.51 |
| 2026-07-20 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | +0.261 | Low | +5.29 |
| 2026-05-22 | Ifo Current Conditions | 86.1 | 85.1 | +0.990 | Low | +5.14 |
| 2026-05-29 | HICP YoY | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.780 | Low | +4.77 |
| 2026-05-12 | Economic Sentiment | -10.2 | -19.2 | +0.527 | Medium | +4.34 |
| 2026-06-30 | Unemployed Persons | 2.984 | 3.012 | +0.153 | Medium | +3.91 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wholesale Prices YoY | 4.9 | 6.2 | +0.109 | Medium | +3.86 |
| 2026-05-08 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.7 | 0.5 | -0.501 | Medium | -3.77 |
| 2026-07-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.0 | +0.285 | Low | +3.73 |
| 2026-06-08 | Factory Orders MoM | -3.8 | -1.2 | -0.241 | Medium | -3.71 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wholesale Prices MoM | 2.0 | 1.0 | -0.403 | Medium | -3.40 |
| 2026-05-07 | Factory Orders MoM | 5.0 | 1.0 | +0.445 | Medium | +3.27 |
| 2026-05-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | -0.324 | Medium | -3.21 |
| 2026-06-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.6 | +0.245 | Low | +3.13 |
| 2026-05-08 | Imports MoM | 5.1 | 0.8 | +0.808 | Low | +3.04 |
| 2026-06-19 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | +0.298 | Low | +2.96 |
| 2026-06-01 | Retail Sales YoY | -0.3 | -1.4 | +0.211 | Medium | +2.76 |
| 2026-04-30 | Import Prices YoY | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.807 | Low | -2.52 |
| 2026-05-13 | Current Account | 23.6 | 18.4 | +0.596 | Low | +2.51 |
| 2026-07-24 | Consumer Confidence | -29.6 | -28.5 | -0.037 | High | -2.46 |
| 2026-05-29 | Unemployed Persons | 2.987 | 3.021 | +0.185 | Medium | +2.26 |
| 2026-05-08 | Exports MoM | 0.5 | -1.7 | +0.295 | Medium | +2.22 |
| 2026-05-08 | Balance of Trade | 14.3 | 18.4 | -0.191 | High | -2.15 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wholesale Prices YoY | 5.9 | 7.6 | +0.117 | Medium | +2.11 |
| 2026-05-21 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.6 | 48.4 | +0.196 | Medium | +1.99 |
| 2026-07-06 | Factory Orders MoM | 1.9 | 1.2 | +0.065 | Medium | +1.91 |
| 2026-06-25 | Consumer Confidence | -29.2 | -27.6 | -0.055 | High | -1.89 |
| 2026-05-22 | Consumer Confidence | -29.8 | -34.0 | +0.118 | High | +1.84 |
| 2026-05-12 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | -10.2 | -19.8 | +0.139 | High | +1.72 |
| 2026-06-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 48.1 | 47.8 | +0.235 | Low | +1.61 |
| 2026-05-22 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.280 | Low | +1.46 |
| 2026-06-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.8 | 48.6 | +0.195 | Low | +1.34 |
| 2026-06-30 | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.103 | Low | -1.32 |
| 2026-06-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.9 | +0.190 | Low | +1.25 |
| 2026-06-04 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 42.4 | 42.0 | +0.156 | Low | +1.10 |
| 2026-04-30 | Unemployed Persons | 3.006 | 2.979 | -0.149 | Medium | -0.93 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wholesale Prices YoY | 6.3 | 5.2 | -0.110 | Medium | -0.93 |
| 2026-05-22 | Ifo Expectations | 83.8 | 83.5 | +0.176 | Low | +0.91 |
| 2026-06-03 | New Car Sales YoY | 0.1 | 4.2 | -0.130 | Low | -0.89 |
| 2026-06-16 | ZEW Current Conditions | -81.0 | -78.0 | -0.096 | Low | -0.88 |
| 2026-06-30 | Import Prices YoY | 6.8 | 6.6 | -0.056 | Low | -0.72 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.114 | Low | +0.69 |
| 2026-06-09 | Balance of Trade | 14.5 | 15.0 | -0.029 | High | -0.67 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.4 | 51.2 | +0.186 | Low | +0.64 |
| 2026-06-01 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.3 | -0.4 | +0.045 | Medium | +0.59 |
| 2026-05-20 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.2 | 1.0 | -0.104 | Low | -0.52 |
| 2026-04-30 | Import Prices MoM | 3.6 | 3.0 | -0.124 | Low | -0.39 |
| 2026-05-06 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.4 | 48.3 | +0.098 | Low | +0.35 |
| 2026-05-29 | Import Prices MoM | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.056 | Low | -0.34 |
| 2026-05-07 | New Car Sales YoY | 2.7 | 7.5 | -0.085 | Low | -0.31 |
| 2026-07-21 | ZEW Current Conditions | -77.6 | -77.8 | +0.006 | Low | +0.13 |
| 2026-05-12 | ZEW Current Conditions | -77.8 | -77.5 | -0.010 | Low | -0.04 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | S&P Global Services PMI | 46.9 | 46.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | CPI MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | HICP YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | HICP MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | Import Prices YoY | 5.3 | 5.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | HICP MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | CPI MoM | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | HICP YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | Ifo Business Climate | 85.6 | 85.6 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.3 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | HICP MoM | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | CPI YoY | 2.3 | 2.3 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | CPI MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.3 | 2.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.8 | 1.8 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |