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Economic Surprises › France
France -6.6 ▬ vs 1w ago (-6.4)
France economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-6.6
1 Week Ago
-6.4
Releases (90d)
168
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CAC 40 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (168 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-04-08 Balance of Trade -5.8 -2.4 -4.299 Medium -81.44
2026-04-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 49.5 +2.641 Medium +70.77
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.0 0.2 -1.110 High -52.44
2026-04-24 Consumer Confidence 84.0 88.0 -1.704 Medium -46.72
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.0 0.2 -1.447 Medium -45.57
2026-04-23 S&P Global Services PMI 46.5 48.4 -1.507 Medium -40.38
2026-05-13 Unemployment Rate 8.1 7.8 -0.906 Medium -38.53
2026-04-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.6 48.6 -0.980 Medium -26.27
2026-05-07 Balance of Trade -6.9 -5.6 -0.704 Medium -26.08
2026-03-31 Consumer Spending MoM -1.4 -0.3 -1.485 Medium -23.39
2026-04-30 CPI MoM 1.0 0.9 -0.656 Medium -20.65
2026-04-30 HICP MoM 1.2 0.9 -0.578 Medium -18.19
2026-03-10 Balance of Trade -1.8 -4.6 +1.847 Medium +17.91
2026-02-27 CPI MoM 0.7 0.5 -2.361 Medium -17.75
2026-04-08 S&P Global Construction PMI 38.4 45.0 -1.665 Low -15.78
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.0 -0.316 High -14.94
2026-04-15 CPI MoM 1.0 0.9 -0.656 Medium -14.60
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 2.2 2.0 -0.910 Low -14.33
2026-04-08 Imports 57.8 55.1 +1.482 Low +14.04
2026-04-08 Foreign Exchange Reserves 390.629 423.0 -1.448 Low -13.71
2026-03-13 HICP MoM 0.7 0.4 -1.299 Medium -13.50
2026-05-05 Budget Balance -42.9 -36.0 -0.741 Low -13.09
2026-03-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.3 49.3 -0.966 Medium -12.95
2026-03-31 Household Consumption MoM -1.4 -0.2 -1.478 Low -11.64
2026-04-23 Business Confidence 100.0 99.0 +0.391 Medium +10.49
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index YoY 0.2 -1.0 -0.661 Low -10.41
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 38.1 40.0 -0.539 Low -9.98
2026-03-24 HCOB Composite PMI 48.3 49.3 -0.736 Medium -9.86
2026-02-27 Unemployment Benefit Claims -26.9 7.5 +1.278 Medium +9.61
2026-04-28 Unemployment Benefit Claims 35.6 17.0 -0.305 Medium -9.17
2026-04-08 Exports 52.0 53.7 -0.953 Low -9.03
2026-04-08 Current Account -1.8 1.7 -0.950 Low -9.00
2026-02-27 Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 0.8 -0.790 High -8.92
2026-03-13 CPI MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.843 Medium +8.76
2026-02-27 CPI YoY 1.0 0.8 -2.275 Low -8.55
2026-02-20 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 49.9 51.6 -1.324 Medium -8.47
2026-05-06 Industrial Production MoM 1.0 0.5 +0.221 Medium +8.00
2026-03-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.2 49.5 +0.560 Medium +7.51
2026-03-24 S&P Global Services PMI 48.3 49.0 -0.548 Medium -7.35
2026-02-27 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.1 0.7 -1.888 Low -7.10
2026-04-23 Business Climate Indicator 94.0 96.0 -0.525 Low -7.03
2026-03-03 Budget Balance -9.7 -16.9 +1.646 Low +6.79
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index MoM 2.0 0.8 -0.427 Low -6.72
2026-05-07 Imports 59.3 58.6 +0.361 Low +6.69
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.1 1.0 +0.139 High +6.55
2026-03-24 HCOB Services PMI 48.3 49.0 -0.460 Medium -6.16
2026-03-10 Current Account 2.1 -1.2 +1.269 Low +6.15
2026-02-27 CPI 0.7 0.5 -0.786 Medium -5.91
2026-04-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.2 0.9 -0.360 Low -5.68
2026-03-26 Business Climate Indicator 97.0 94.0 +0.804 Low +5.64
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 51.0 -0.864 Medium -5.53
2026-05-07 Current Account -1.2 -3.4 +0.299 Low +5.53
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.9 51.0 -0.855 Medium -5.47
2026-03-26 Business Confidence 99.0 100.0 -0.388 Medium -5.44
2026-02-24 Business Confidence 102.0 104.0 -0.745 Medium -5.23
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 50.9 -0.787 Medium -5.03
2026-03-13 CPI YoY 0.9 1.0 +0.910 Low +4.73
2026-03-31 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.6 -0.198 High -4.67
2026-04-07 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.8 48.3 +0.493 Low +4.57
2026-04-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.3 -0.287 Low -4.53
2026-03-31 CPI YoY 1.7 1.6 -0.569 Low -4.48
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 0.9 -0.134 Medium -4.23
2026-05-07 Exports 52.5 52.9 -0.228 Low -4.22
2026-03-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.4 -0.811 Low -4.21
2026-03-10 Imports 55.3 56.8 -0.799 Low -3.87
2026-04-07 S&P Global Services PMI 48.8 48.3 +0.397 Low +3.68
2026-02-27 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.5 -0.483 Medium -3.64
2026-02-25 Consumer Confidence 91.0 90.0 +0.416 Medium +2.99
2026-04-28 Jobseekers Total 3109.1 3125.2 +0.176 Low +2.64
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.347 Medium +2.61
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.347 Medium +2.61
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.347 Medium +2.61
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.347 Medium +2.61
2026-03-31 Inflation Rate MoM 0.9 0.8 -0.151 Medium -2.38
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.604 Low -2.27
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.604 Low -2.27
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.604 Low -2.27
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.604 Low -2.27
2026-02-20 Services PMI 49.6 49.1 +0.352 Medium +2.25
2026-02-20 Services PMI 49.6 49.1 +0.352 Medium +2.25
2026-02-20 Services PMI 49.6 49.1 +0.352 Medium +2.25
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY -14.7 -4.0 -0.534 Low -2.20
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY -14.7 -4.0 -0.534 Low -2.20
2026-03-06 Foreign Exchange Reserves 421.573 411.0 +0.487 Low +2.15
2026-04-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 1.9 -0.174 Low -1.94
2026-02-27 CPI 1.0 0.8 -0.491 Low -1.85
2026-02-27 CPI 1.0 0.8 -0.491 Low -1.85
2026-02-24 Business Climate Indicator 97.0 99.0 -0.509 Low -1.79
2026-02-20 HCOB Services PMI 49.6 49.2 +0.262 Medium +1.67
2026-03-13 Inflation Rate YoY 0.9 1.0 +0.316 Low +1.64
2026-04-15 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 0.9 -0.134 Low -1.50
2026-04-30 HICP YoY 2.5 2.3 -0.092 Low -1.45
2026-02-27 Jobseekers Total 3090.5 3124.9 +0.375 Low +1.41
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.161 Medium +1.29
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.2 -0.158 Low -1.27
2026-02-20 HCOB Composite PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.146 Medium +0.93
2026-03-13 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.173 Low +0.90
2026-05-11 Foreign Exchange Reserves 386.898 386.0 +0.044 Low +0.89
2026-03-31 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.1 1.0 -0.108 Low -0.85
2026-02-27 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.216 Low +0.81
2026-03-05 HCOB Construction PMI 43.9 44.4 -0.186 Low -0.80
2026-02-27 Consumer Spending MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.101 Medium +0.76
2026-02-27 Consumer Spending MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.101 Medium +0.76
2026-02-27 Consumer Spending MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.101 Medium +0.76
2026-03-27 Unemployment Benefit Claims 17.7 15.0 -0.050 Medium -0.72
2026-02-27 Producer Price Index MoM 0.5 0.3 -0.190 Low -0.71
2026-03-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.161 Low +0.65
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.161 Low +0.65
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.159 Low +0.64
2026-02-27 Household Consumption MoM 0.5 0.3 +0.164 Low +0.62
2026-03-31 Producer Price Index YoY -2.4 -2.1 +0.079 Low +0.62
2026-04-15 HICP YoY 2.0 1.9 -0.056 Low -0.62
2026-03-05 S&P Global Construction PMI 43.9 44.4 -0.128 Low -0.55
2026-02-20 PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.157 Low +0.50
2026-02-20 PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.157 Low +0.50
2026-02-20 PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.157 Low +0.50
2026-02-27 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2 1.1 +0.126 Low +0.47
2026-02-27 Producer Price Index YoY -2.3 -2.6 -0.064 Low -0.24
2026-03-27 Jobseekers Total 3108.2 3105.5 -0.030 Low -0.21
2026-04-02 Budget Balance -32.1 -32.0 -0.012 Low -0.10
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-27 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 HCOB Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 HCOB Composite PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-05 Industrial Production MoM 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-10 Exports 53.4 53.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.1 1.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 HICP YoY 1.1 1.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-26 Consumer Confidence 89.0 89.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-31 Producer Price Index MoM -0.2 -0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-31 HICP YoY 1.9 1.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-31 CPI MoM 0.9 0.9 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-03-31 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 1.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-15 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-15 HICP MoM 1.1 1.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-15 CPI YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.1 1.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-30 Consumer Spending MoM 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 Household Consumption MoM 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-30 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.6 47.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 46.5 46.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-13 CPI MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-05-13 HICP YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 HICP MoM 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-05-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 CPI YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms