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Economic Surprises › France
France +4.0 ▲ vs 1w ago (+1.9)
France economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+4.0
1 Week Ago
+1.9
Releases (90d)
125
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CAC 40 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (125 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-24 S&P Global Services PMI 49.8 47.5 +1.616 Medium +73.67
2026-07-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.6 47.8 +1.432 Medium +65.30
2026-07-10 CPI MoM -0.3 -0.2 +1.822 Medium +60.09
2026-05-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 43.5 47.7 -3.349 Medium -34.80
2026-07-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.0 51.0 -0.750 Medium -34.18
2026-06-23 S&P Global Services PMI 47.4 45.5 +1.394 Medium +31.04
2026-07-07 Balance of Trade -6.9 -5.2 -0.995 Medium -30.63
2026-06-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.6 46.0 +1.323 Medium +29.47
2026-07-02 New Car Sales YoY 11.4 1.0 +2.065 Low +28.31
2026-05-21 S&P Global Services PMI 42.9 46.6 -2.650 Medium -27.53
2026-05-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 48.9 52.2 -2.417 Medium -25.12
2026-05-29 CPI MoM 0.1 0.2 +1.822 Medium +22.77
2026-07-28 Consumer Confidence 86.0 85.0 +0.444 Medium +22.22
2026-05-29 Consumer Spending MoM -0.5 -0.1 -1.594 Medium -19.93
2026-07-08 Foreign Exchange Reserves 355.389 381.1 -1.233 Low -19.42
2026-06-30 CPI YoY 1.8 2.1 +1.382 Low +18.09
2026-06-30 Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 2.1 +0.455 High +17.89
2026-06-30 Consumer Spending MoM 0.5 0.2 +0.598 Medium +15.65
2026-06-26 Unemployment Benefit Claims 15.5 -12.0 -0.647 Medium -15.44
2026-05-29 HICP MoM 0.1 0.3 +1.175 Medium +14.68
2026-07-07 Exports 53.6 55.1 -0.825 Low -12.69
2026-07-23 Business Climate Indicator 97.0 95.0 +0.540 Low +12.03
2026-05-29 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.9 1.1 -0.962 Medium -12.02
2026-06-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.0 +0.535 Medium +11.92
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.0 0.2 -1.110 High -10.65
2026-06-25 Consumer Confidence 84.0 83.0 +0.455 Medium +10.61
2026-05-29 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.3 +0.809 Medium +10.12
2026-07-10 Inflation Rate MoM -0.3 -0.2 +0.607 Low +10.01
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.0 0.2 -1.447 Medium -9.25
2026-06-23 Business Confidence 100.0 101.0 -0.387 Medium -8.61
2026-06-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 44.9 43.5 +1.224 Low +8.59
2026-07-28 Unemployment Benefit Claims 5.9 15.0 +0.171 Medium +8.56
2026-05-22 Business Confidence 102.0 100.0 +0.781 Medium +8.30
2026-05-13 Unemployment Rate 8.1 7.8 -0.906 Medium -7.82
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 44.3 42.9 +1.089 Low +7.64
2026-06-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 2.4 +0.555 Low +7.26
2026-06-05 Exports 54.6 52.9 +0.974 Low +7.15
2026-07-07 Imports 60.5 61.4 -0.455 Low -7.01
2026-07-08 Current Account -0.1 -1.8 +0.439 Low +6.92
2026-07-08 Current Account -0.1 -1.8 +0.439 Low +6.92
2026-05-29 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ 0.0 -0.1 +1.064 Low +6.65
2026-05-29 Household Consumption MoM -0.5 -0.1 -0.990 Low -6.19
2026-06-05 Balance of Trade -5.6 -6.5 +0.422 Medium +6.19
2026-07-03 S&P Global Services PMI 46.8 47.4 -0.422 Low -5.93
2026-05-27 Consumer Confidence 82.0 83.0 -0.455 Medium -5.43
2026-07-06 S&P Global Construction PMI 38.2 39.4 -0.356 Low -5.35
2026-05-07 Balance of Trade -6.9 -5.6 -0.707 Medium -5.31
2026-05-28 Producer Price Index MoM -2.1 1.1 +0.833 Low +5.08
2026-07-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.2 50.7 +0.377 Low +5.05
2026-05-29 Unemployment Benefit Claims -9.0 23.0 +0.393 Medium +4.91
2026-06-05 Industrial Production MoM 0.1 -0.2 +0.334 Medium +4.90
2026-06-30 Household Consumption MoM 0.5 0.2 +0.371 Low +4.86
2026-07-03 Industrial Production MoM -0.1 -0.4 +0.167 Medium +4.68
2026-05-29 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.3 +0.725 Low +4.53
2026-06-30 Producer Price Index MoM -0.3 1.5 +0.343 Low +4.50
2026-07-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.2 47.6 -0.320 Low -4.48
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.7 48.9 +0.626 Low +4.19
2026-04-30 HICP MoM 1.2 0.9 -0.587 Medium -3.76
2026-06-26 Jobseekers Total 3115.6 3088.1 -0.308 Low -3.68
2026-06-04 S&P Global Construction PMI 39.6 38.0 +0.492 Low +3.53
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 2.2 2.0 -0.967 Low -3.09
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.0 -0.319 High -3.06
2026-06-05 Current Account -0.2 -1.8 +0.413 Low +3.04
2026-06-23 Business Climate Indicator 94.0 95.0 -0.270 Low -3.01
2026-06-02 New Car Sales YoY 3.7 -3.2 +0.428 Low +2.93
2026-05-05 Budget Balance -42.9 -36.0 -0.748 Low -2.69
2026-04-30 CPI MoM 1.0 0.9 -0.405 Medium -2.59
2026-06-30 Producer Price Index YoY 3.0 4.6 +0.195 Low +2.55
2026-05-29 CPI YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.387 Low +2.42
2026-05-29 Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.128 High +2.39
2026-06-30 HICP YoY 2.0 2.4 +0.182 Low +2.38
2026-05-29 Jobseekers Total 3100.1 3132.1 +0.354 Low +2.21
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index YoY 0.2 -1.0 -0.672 Low -2.15
2026-05-28 Producer Price Index YoY 2.1 5.6 +0.350 Low +2.14
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 38.1 40.0 -0.555 Low -2.09
2026-06-05 Foreign Exchange Reserves 381.3 386.6 -0.251 Low -1.84
2026-05-06 Industrial Production MoM 1.0 0.5 +0.222 Medium +1.63
2026-05-29 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.9 1.1 -0.254 Low -1.59
2026-07-02 Budget Balance -93.3 -96.0 +0.110 Low +1.51
2026-06-02 Budget Balance -69.6 -66.0 -0.213 Low -1.46
2026-05-07 Imports 59.3 58.6 +0.371 Low +1.40
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index MoM 2.0 0.8 -0.429 Low -1.37
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.1 1.0 +0.140 High +1.34
2026-04-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.2 0.9 -0.362 Low -1.16
2026-05-07 Current Account -1.2 -3.4 +0.301 Low +1.13
2026-04-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.3 -0.289 Low -0.93
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 0.9 -0.135 Medium -0.86
2026-05-07 Exports 52.5 52.9 -0.229 Low -0.86
2026-05-04 New Car Sales YoY -0.3 4.5 -0.212 Low -0.74
2026-05-29 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.9 +0.115 Low +0.72
2026-07-28 Jobseekers Total 3121.5 3120.0 -0.017 Low -0.42
2026-04-30 HICP YoY 2.5 2.3 -0.095 Low -0.30
2026-05-29 HICP YoY 2.8 2.9 +0.038 Low +0.24
2026-05-11 Foreign Exchange Reserves 386.898 386.0 +0.043 Low +0.18
2026-04-30 Consumer Spending MoM 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 Household Consumption MoM 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-30 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 46.5 46.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.6 47.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-13 CPI YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 HICP MoM 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-05-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 CPI MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-05-13 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-13 HICP YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-22 Business Climate Indicator 94.0 94.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-05 Imports 60.2 60.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-12 HICP MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-12 CPI YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 HICP YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 CPI MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.3 -0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 1.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 CPI YoY 1.8 1.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 HICP YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-10 HICP MoM -0.3 -0.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-23 Business Confidence 101.0 101.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms