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Economic Surprises › France
France +0.3 ▬ vs 1w ago (+0.4)
France economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+0.3
1 Week Ago
+0.4
Releases (90d)
184
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CAC 40 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (184 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-03-10 Balance of Trade -1.8 -4.6 +1.945 Medium +73.69
2026-02-03 CPI -0.3 -0.1 +3.929 Medium +66.33
2026-03-13 HICP MoM 0.7 0.4 -1.262 Medium -51.23
2026-02-03 Inflation Rate MoM -0.3 -0.1 +2.396 Medium +40.44
2026-02-03 Inflation Rate YoY 0.3 0.6 +1.567 High +39.68
2026-02-27 Unemployment Benefit Claims -26.9 7.5 +1.265 Medium +37.18
2026-02-27 Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 0.8 -0.784 High -34.54
2026-02-20 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 49.9 51.6 -1.324 Medium -33.10
2026-02-27 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ -0.1 0.1 -2.046 Low -30.07
2026-02-27 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.1 0.7 -1.873 Low -27.52
2026-03-03 Budget Balance -9.7 -16.9 +1.630 Low +26.27
2026-02-06 Foreign Exchange Reserves 409.263 363.0 +2.756 Low +24.93
2026-03-10 Current Account 2.1 -1.2 +1.261 Low +23.89
2026-02-27 CPI 0.7 0.5 -0.786 Medium -23.10
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.9 51.0 -0.914 Medium -22.86
2026-01-23 HCOB Services PMI 47.9 50.6 -1.706 Medium -22.33
2026-01-23 Services PMI 47.9 50.3 -1.650 Medium -21.60
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 51.0 -0.864 Medium -21.60
2026-02-24 Business Confidence 102.0 104.0 -0.741 Medium -20.33
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 49.9 50.9 -0.787 Medium -19.67
2026-01-23 HCOB Composite PMI 48.6 50.6 -1.427 Medium -18.68
2026-02-05 Industrial Production MoM -0.7 0.2 -0.992 Medium -17.54
2026-03-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.4 -0.803 Low -16.31
2026-01-30 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ -0.1 0.1 -2.046 Low -15.74
2026-03-10 Imports 55.3 56.8 -0.801 Low -15.17
2026-01-23 Business Confidence 105.0 102.0 +1.134 Medium +14.84
2026-02-27 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.5 -0.479 Medium -14.08
2026-02-25 Consumer Confidence 91.0 90.0 +0.418 Medium +11.73
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.336 Medium +9.89
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.336 Medium +9.89
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.336 Medium +9.89
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.336 Medium +9.89
2026-02-06 Balance of Trade -4.8 -4.1 -0.545 Medium -9.87
2026-03-06 Foreign Exchange Reserves 421.573 411.0 +0.556 Low +9.61
2026-02-03 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 0.4 0.6 +1.093 Low +9.22
2026-02-03 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.4 -0.2 +1.071 Low +9.04
2026-02-20 Services PMI 49.6 49.1 +0.352 Medium +8.80
2026-02-20 Services PMI 49.6 49.1 +0.352 Medium +8.80
2026-02-20 Services PMI 49.6 49.1 +0.352 Medium +8.80
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY -14.7 -4.0 -0.534 Low -8.61
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY -14.7 -4.0 -0.534 Low -8.61
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.582 Low -8.55
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.582 Low -8.55
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.582 Low -8.55
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 1.1 0.7 -0.582 Low -8.55
2026-02-03 CPI 0.3 0.6 +0.982 Low +8.29
2026-01-09 Consumer Spending MoM -0.3 -0.1 -0.813 Medium -7.70
2026-01-23 PMI 48.6 50.1 -1.165 Low -7.62
2026-01-06 HICP MoM 0.1 0.2 +0.841 Medium +7.43
2026-02-27 CPI 1.0 0.8 -0.491 Low -7.22
2026-02-27 CPI 1.0 0.8 -0.491 Low -7.22
2026-02-24 Business Climate Indicator 97.0 99.0 -0.505 Low -6.93
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.2 -0.440 Medium -6.77
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 48.4 47.9 +0.388 Medium +6.70
2026-01-29 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.2 -0.440 Medium -6.62
2026-02-20 HCOB Services PMI 49.6 49.2 +0.260 Medium +6.50
2026-03-13 Inflation Rate YoY 0.9 1.0 +0.313 Low +6.36
2026-02-04 Services PMI 48.4 47.9 +0.361 Medium +6.24
2026-02-04 Services PMI 48.4 47.9 +0.361 Medium +6.24
2026-02-10 Unemployment Rate 7.9 7.8 -0.302 Medium -6.00
2026-02-10 Unemployment Rate 7.9 7.8 -0.302 Medium -6.00
2026-02-03 Budget Balance -124.7 -153.0 +0.708 Low +5.97
2026-02-27 Jobseekers Total 3090.5 3124.9 +0.371 Low +5.45
2026-01-06 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.2 +0.599 Medium +5.29
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.161 Medium +5.06
2026-01-06 Inflation Rate YoY 0.8 0.9 +0.348 High +4.62
2026-01-05 New Car Registrations YoY -5.8 1.5 -0.972 Low -4.20
2026-02-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.1 48.6 +0.469 Low +4.05
2026-02-03 New Car Registrations YoY -6.6 -2.0 -0.459 Low -3.88
2026-02-06 Imports 57.9 57.1 +0.425 Low +3.84
2026-02-20 HCOB Composite PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.145 Medium +3.63
2026-03-13 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.171 Low +3.48
2026-02-04 PMI 49.1 48.6 +0.400 Low +3.46
2026-02-04 PMI 49.1 48.6 +0.400 Low +3.46
2026-01-08 Current Account -0.8 1.4 -0.720 Low -3.33
2026-02-04 HCOB Composite PMI 49.1 48.6 +0.372 Low +3.21
2026-02-27 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.214 Low +3.15
2026-03-05 HCOB Construction PMI 43.9 44.4 -0.186 Low -3.14
2026-01-30 Consumer Spending MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.203 Medium -3.13
2026-01-30 Consumer Spending MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.203 Medium -3.13
2026-01-29 Consumer Spending MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.203 Medium -3.06
2025-12-29 Unemployment Benefit Claims -21.5 45.0 +0.408 Medium +2.99
2026-02-27 Consumer Spending MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.102 Medium +2.99
2026-02-27 Consumer Spending MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.102 Medium +2.99
2026-02-27 Consumer Spending MoM 0.5 0.4 +0.102 Medium +2.99
2026-01-09 Household Consumption MoM -0.3 0.2 -0.615 Low -2.91
2026-02-04 HCOB Services PMI 48.4 47.9 +0.334 Low +2.88
2026-02-03 HICP YoY 0.4 0.6 +0.339 Low +2.86
2026-02-03 HICP YoY 0.4 0.6 +0.339 Low +2.86
2026-02-03 HICP YoY 0.4 0.6 +0.339 Low +2.86
2026-02-03 HICP YoY 0.4 0.6 +0.339 Low +2.86
2026-02-27 Producer Price Index MoM 0.5 0.3 -0.188 Low -2.76
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.170 Low +2.68
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.1 1.2 -0.114 High -2.64
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.0 +0.157 Medium +2.59
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.0 +0.157 Medium +2.59
2025-12-29 Jobseekers Total 3129.3 3195.8 +0.701 Low +2.58
2026-03-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.161 Low +2.54
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.9 +0.161 Low +2.53
2026-01-09 Industrial Production MoM -0.1 0.6 -0.257 Medium -2.44
2026-02-27 Household Consumption MoM 0.5 0.3 +0.164 Low +2.41
2026-02-06 Current Account -0.6 -1.2 +0.229 Low +2.07
2026-02-20 PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.157 Low +1.96
2026-02-20 PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.157 Low +1.96
2026-02-20 PMI 49.9 49.7 +0.157 Low +1.96
2026-02-27 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2 1.1 +0.125 Low +1.83
2026-01-06 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 0.7 0.8 +0.410 Low +1.81
2026-01-30 Producer Price Index YoY -2.0 -3.5 -0.233 Low -1.80
2026-02-05 HCOB Construction PMI 43.5 44.0 -0.188 Low -1.66
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.0 +0.166 Low +1.37
2026-01-30 Producer Price Index MoM 0.2 0.5 +0.169 Low +1.30
2026-02-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.0 +0.158 Low +1.30
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.0 +0.157 Low +1.30
2026-01-08 Imports 56.4 55.9 +0.271 Low +1.26
2026-01-13 Budget Balance -155.4 -165.0 +0.223 Low +1.16
2026-01-23 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.9 +0.079 Medium +1.03
2026-01-23 Manufacturing PMI 51.0 50.9 +0.079 Medium +1.03
2026-01-07 HCOB Construction PMI 43.4 44.0 -0.226 Low -1.02
2026-01-06 CPI 0.8 0.9 +0.218 Low +0.96
2026-01-30 Household Consumption MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.123 Low -0.95
2026-02-27 Producer Price Index YoY -2.3 -2.6 -0.063 Low -0.92
2026-01-08 Exports 52.2 52.5 -0.169 Low -0.78
2026-01-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.6 +0.079 Medium +0.64
2026-01-06 Services PMI 50.1 50.2 -0.069 Medium -0.61
2026-01-06 HICP YoY 0.7 0.8 +0.127 Low +0.56
2026-02-06 Exports 53.1 53.2 -0.056 Low -0.50
2026-01-08 Foreign Exchange Reserves 362.743 361.0 +0.104 Low +0.48
2026-01-06 PMI 50.0 50.1 -0.078 Low -0.34
2026-01-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.7 50.6 +0.079 Low +0.32
2026-01-06 HCOB Composite PMI 50.0 50.1 -0.072 Low -0.32
2026-01-06 HCOB Services PMI 50.1 50.2 -0.064 Low -0.28
2026-01-06 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-07 Consumer Confidence 90.0 90.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-08 Balance of Trade -4.2 -4.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 HICP MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-01-15 HICP YoY 0.7 0.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 Inflation Rate YoY 0.8 0.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 0.7 0.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-23 Business Climate Indicator 99.0 99.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-27 Consumer Confidence 90.0 90.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-29 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-18 HICP MoM -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP YoY 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 CPI 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP MoM -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP YoY 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 Inflation Rate YoY 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 Inflation Rate MoM -0.3 -0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP YoY 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP MoM -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 CPI 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 CPI -0.3 -0.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP YoY 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP MoM -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP YoY 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 HICP MoM -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 1.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 HCOB Composite PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 HCOB Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 Services PMI 49.6 49.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 49.9 49.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-05 Industrial Production MoM 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-10 Exports 53.4 53.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-13 HICP YoY 1.1 1.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.1 1.1 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms