France Economic Surprise Index
-6.4 ▼ vs 1w ago (-1.9)
France economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-6.4
1 Week Ago
-1.9
Releases (90d)
95
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with CAC 40 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Business Confidence +1.55z
- Unemployment Benefit Claims +1.44z
- Consumer Spending MoM +1.48z
- Consumer Spending MoM +1.85z
- Jobseekers Total +0.84z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Consumer Confidence -2.23z
- S&P Global Composite PMI -1.61z
- S&P Global Services PMI -1.56z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -0.91z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY -1.49z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (95 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Consumer Confidence | 80.0 | 85.0 | -2.233 | Medium | -111.64 |
| 2026-10-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.4 | 50.5 | -1.612 | Medium | -73.49 |
| 2026-10-23 | S&P Global Services PMI | 48.4 | 50.7 | -1.559 | Medium | -71.08 |
| 2026-10-22 | Business Confidence | 105.0 | 101.0 | +1.548 | Medium | +68.94 |
| 2026-10-23 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.3 | 50.5 | -0.910 | Medium | -41.49 |
| 2026-09-29 | Unemployment Benefit Claims | -61.3 | 15.0 | +1.437 | Medium | +37.63 |
| 2026-08-28 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.5 | 0.7 | -1.494 | Medium | -18.67 |
| 2026-08-28 | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | +1.481 | Medium | +18.52 |
| 2026-08-28 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.0 | 0.2 | -1.418 | Medium | -17.72 |
| 2026-07-31 | CPI MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | -2.667 | Medium | -17.46 |
| 2026-10-06 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.449 | Medium | -13.82 |
| 2026-07-30 | Consumer Spending MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | +1.852 | Medium | +11.84 |
| 2026-07-31 | HICP MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | -1.744 | Medium | -11.42 |
| 2026-09-29 | Jobseekers Total | 3081.7 | 3158.0 | +0.844 | Low | +11.05 |
| 2026-10-07 | Imports | 60.3 | 61.6 | -0.678 | Low | -10.68 |
| 2026-09-24 | Consumer Confidence | 86.0 | 85.0 | +0.447 | Medium | +10.42 |
| 2026-10-02 | New Car Sales YoY | 11.6 | 2.9 | +0.741 | Low | +10.40 |
| 2026-09-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 380.694 | 357.4 | +1.251 | Low | +9.85 |
| 2026-09-24 | Business Confidence | 101.0 | 102.0 | -0.383 | Medium | -8.94 |
| 2026-09-09 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.524 | Medium | -8.64 |
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 370.203 | 381.0 | -0.544 | Low | -8.57 |
| 2026-08-21 | Business Confidence | 103.0 | 101.0 | +0.774 | Medium | +8.23 |
| 2026-10-07 | Exports | 54.2 | 55.1 | -0.514 | Low | -8.09 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | -1.223 | Medium | -8.01 |
| 2026-08-28 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.0 | 0.2 | -1.112 | Low | -6.95 |
| 2026-09-24 | Business Climate Indicator | 96.0 | 98.0 | -0.532 | Low | -6.21 |
| 2026-10-22 | Business Climate Indicator | 97.0 | 96.0 | +0.272 | Low | +6.05 |
| 2026-10-07 | Balance of Trade | -6.1 | -6.5 | +0.189 | Medium | +5.95 |
| 2026-09-30 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.436 | Low | -5.84 |
| 2026-09-08 | Balance of Trade | -6.7 | -6.0 | -0.358 | Medium | -5.77 |
| 2026-08-28 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.2 | -0.293 | High | -5.49 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | -0.537 | High | -5.27 |
| 2026-10-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.274 | Low | -5.19 |
| 2026-09-08 | Current Account | -4.7 | -2.0 | -0.635 | Low | -5.12 |
| 2026-08-25 | Consumer Confidence | 86.0 | 87.0 | -0.436 | Medium | -5.09 |
| 2026-10-07 | Current Account | -1.5 | -4.3 | +0.306 | Low | +4.82 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.653 | Medium | -4.18 |
| 2026-08-28 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.5 | -0.658 | Low | -4.11 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.1 | 51.5 | -0.298 | Medium | -4.08 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 48.0 | 48.4 | -0.284 | Medium | -4.08 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unemployment Benefit Claims | 21.5 | 10.0 | -0.325 | Medium | -3.97 |
| 2026-07-30 | Household Consumption MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | +1.231 | Low | +3.94 |
| 2026-10-06 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 39.8 | 39.0 | +0.236 | Low | +3.63 |
| 2026-07-31 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | -1.097 | Low | -3.59 |
| 2026-09-08 | Imports | 61.3 | 60.5 | +0.425 | Low | +3.42 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50.3 | +0.228 | Low | +3.13 |
| 2026-08-28 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.204 | Medium | -2.55 |
| 2026-08-07 | Balance of Trade | -5.8 | -6.5 | +0.330 | Medium | +2.54 |
| 2026-08-07 | Unemployment Rate | 8.3 | 8.2 | -0.290 | Medium | -2.23 |
| 2026-10-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.0 | -0.107 | Low | -2.03 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.2 | 51.4 | -0.134 | Low | -2.01 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.5 | 48.8 | -0.238 | Low | -1.71 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.177 | High | -1.70 |
| 2026-08-28 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.5 | -0.269 | Low | -1.68 |
| 2026-07-31 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.480 | Low | -1.57 |
| 2026-08-27 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.6 | -0.242 | Low | -1.48 |
| 2026-09-02 | New Car Sales YoY | 7.4 | 4.0 | +0.210 | Low | +1.47 |
| 2026-09-08 | Exports | 54.7 | 54.4 | +0.174 | Low | +1.40 |
| 2026-08-07 | Exports | 54.5 | 55.1 | -0.343 | Low | -1.32 |
| 2026-09-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.8 | 4.1 | -0.098 | Low | -1.31 |
| 2026-09-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.8 | +0.137 | Low | +1.30 |
| 2026-09-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | +0.124 | Low | +1.18 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.1 | 51.2 | -0.076 | Low | -1.14 |
| 2026-08-05 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.150 | Medium | -1.10 |
| 2026-08-27 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 2.7 | -0.149 | Low | -0.91 |
| 2026-08-27 | Jobseekers Total | 3143.0 | 3131.5 | -0.128 | Low | -0.78 |
| 2026-08-07 | Current Account | -1.4 | -2.4 | +0.196 | Low | +0.75 |
| 2026-08-24 | New Car Sales YoY | 9.0 | 6.2 | +0.112 | Low | +0.64 |
| 2026-08-07 | Imports | 60.4 | 60.7 | -0.159 | Low | -0.61 |
| 2026-07-31 | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.159 | Low | -0.52 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.6 | -0.4 | +0.145 | Low | +0.48 |
| 2026-08-04 | Budget Balance | -106.8 | -104.0 | -0.107 | Low | -0.38 |
| 2026-08-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 357.05 | 355.7 | +0.073 | Low | +0.28 |
| 2026-10-06 | Budget Balance | -159.6 | -160.2 | +0.015 | Low | +0.23 |
| 2026-09-02 | Budget Balance | -145.9 | -147.0 | +0.030 | Low | +0.21 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | +0.021 | Low | +0.07 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | HICP YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 2.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | CPI YoY | 2.1 | 2.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | CPI MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | HICP MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | Business Climate Indicator | 98.0 | 98.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | CPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.7 | 0.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |