Indonesia Economic Surprise Index
-7.2 ▼ vs 1w ago (-2.4)
Indonesia economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-7.2
1 Week Ago
-2.4
Releases (90d)
46
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Balance of Trade +1.03z
- Exports YoY +6.50z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI +1.51z
- Core Inflation Rate YoY +1.39z
- Retail Sales YoY +0.90z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Foreign Exchange Reserves -8.15z
- Interest Rate Decision -2.08z
- Lending Facility Rate -1.72z
- Core Inflation Rate YoY -1.11z
- Retail Sales YoY -1.79z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (46 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 146.3 | 1440.0 | -8.150 | Low | -128.35 |
| 2026-10-21 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 6.0 | -2.077 | Medium | -90.39 |
| 2026-10-21 | Lending Facility Rate | 6.5 | 6.75 | -1.715 | Low | -37.33 |
| 2026-10-01 | Balance of Trade | 3.55 | 0.6 | +1.033 | Medium | +28.32 |
| 2026-08-03 | Exports YoY | 8.84 | 0.25 | +6.502 | Low | +22.81 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 50.3 | +1.507 | Low | +20.67 |
| 2026-10-01 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.84 | 3.0 | +1.387 | Low | +19.01 |
| 2026-09-01 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.92 | 2.8 | -1.114 | Low | -7.64 |
| 2026-08-11 | Retail Sales YoY | -3.0 | 1.8 | -1.789 | Low | -7.55 |
| 2026-09-10 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.1 | -3.3 | +0.895 | Low | +7.55 |
| 2026-08-03 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.88 | 3.2 | +0.776 | Medium | +5.45 |
| 2026-08-05 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 5.29 | 5.1 | +0.619 | Medium | +4.55 |
| 2026-08-21 | Current Account | -12.5 | -1.8 | -0.822 | Low | -4.37 |
| 2026-08-05 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 5.29 | 5.1 | +1.125 | Low | +4.13 |
| 2026-09-01 | Balance of Trade | 0.13 | -0.3 | +0.301 | Medium | +4.13 |
| 2026-08-03 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.14 | 0.1 | +0.581 | Low | +2.04 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.19 | 3.13 | -0.149 | Medium | -2.04 |
| 2026-08-05 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 3.73 | 3.5 | +0.521 | Low | +1.91 |
| 2026-09-09 | Consumer Confidence | 118.5 | 117.0 | +0.232 | Low | +1.91 |
| 2026-10-21 | Loan Growth YoY | 13.26 | 12.5 | +0.072 | Low | +1.57 |
| 2026-10-01 | Exports YoY | 6.72 | 4.2 | +0.114 | Low | +1.56 |
| 2026-09-23 | Loan Growth YoY | 13.36 | 15.0 | -0.129 | Low | -1.47 |
| 2026-08-07 | Property Price Index YoY | 1.32 | 0.8 | +0.370 | Low | +1.42 |
| 2026-08-03 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.8 | +0.371 | Low | +1.30 |
| 2026-10-01 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.28 | 3.3 | +0.047 | Medium | +1.29 |
| 2026-09-01 | Exports YoY | 6.05 | 3.4 | +0.147 | Low | +1.01 |
| 2026-08-03 | Balance of Trade | -0.45 | -0.79 | +0.090 | Medium | +0.63 |
| 2026-08-10 | Consumer Confidence | 116.8 | 116.0 | +0.125 | Low | +0.51 |
| 2026-08-07 | Property Price Index YoY | 0.69 | 0.8 | -0.078 | Low | -0.30 |
| 2026-08-05 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 3.73 | 3.5 | +0.077 | Low | +0.28 |
| 2026-08-19 | Loan Growth YoY | 13.58 | 13.0 | +0.053 | Low | +0.27 |
| 2026-08-19 | Loan Growth YoY | 13.58 | 13.0 | +0.053 | Low | +0.27 |
| 2026-10-08 | Consumer Confidence | 118.1 | 118.0 | +0.015 | Low | +0.25 |
| 2026-10-01 | Imports YoY | 19.09 | 31.7 | -0.015 | Low | -0.20 |
| 2026-10-01 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.31 | +0.008 | Low | +0.11 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.21 | 0.2 | -0.012 | Low | -0.08 |
| 2026-08-03 | Imports YoY | 34.27 | 25.3 | +0.013 | Low | +0.05 |
| 2026-09-01 | Imports YoY | 27.02 | 24.1 | +0.005 | Low | +0.03 |
| 2026-08-19 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 5.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Lending Facility Rate | 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Deposit Facility Rate | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-23 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 5.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-23 | Deposit Facility Rate | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-23 | Lending Facility Rate | 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-21 | Deposit Facility Rate | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |