Indonesia
-11.4
▼
vs 1w ago (-5.0)
Indonesia economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-11.4
1 Week Ago
-5.0
Releases (90d)
49
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Interest Rate Decision +2.50z
- Deposit Facility Rate +2.12z
- Car Sales YoY +2.60z
- Inflation Rate YoY +1.49z
- Lending Facility Rate +2.01z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Interest Rate Decision -2.09z
- Lending Facility Rate -1.72z
- Deposit Facility Rate -1.69z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -2.41z
- Retail Sales YoY -2.00z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (49 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 6.0 | -2.087 | Medium | -90.85 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lending Facility Rate | 6.5 | 6.75 | -1.715 | Low | -37.33 |
| 2026-07-22 | Deposit Facility Rate | 4.75 | 5.0 | -1.693 | Low | -36.84 |
| 2026-07-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.9 | 50.4 | -2.412 | Low | -32.31 |
| 2026-07-09 | Retail Sales YoY | -3.9 | 2.0 | -1.995 | Low | -32.16 |
| 2026-05-20 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.0 | +2.505 | Medium | +25.43 |
| 2026-07-01 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.76 | 2.6 | -1.601 | Low | -21.45 |
| 2026-07-08 | Consumer Confidence | 117.8 | 125.0 | -1.024 | Low | -16.12 |
| 2026-07-01 | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | 1.2 | -0.489 | Medium | -13.10 |
| 2026-07-01 | Balance of Trade | -1.61 | 1.2 | -0.489 | Medium | -13.10 |
| 2026-06-11 | Retail Sales YoY | -3.7 | 3.6 | -1.372 | Low | -11.58 |
| 2026-05-20 | Deposit Facility Rate | 4.25 | 4.0 | +2.116 | Low | +10.74 |
| 2026-05-10 | Car Sales YoY | 55.0 | -7.0 | +2.600 | Low | +10.48 |
| 2026-05-04 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.42 | 3.0 | +1.489 | Medium | +10.45 |
| 2026-05-20 | Lending Facility Rate | 6.0 | 5.75 | +2.013 | Low | +10.22 |
| 2026-07-22 | Loan Growth YoY | 12.67 | 9.0 | +0.465 | Low | +10.13 |
| 2026-07-01 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.34 | 3.2 | -0.337 | Medium | -9.03 |
| 2026-05-05 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 5.61 | 5.3 | +0.969 | Medium | +6.95 |
| 2026-05-05 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 5.61 | 5.3 | +1.679 | Low | +6.03 |
| 2026-07-01 | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 6.4 | -0.421 | Low | -5.64 |
| 2026-07-01 | Exports YoY | -5.73 | 6.4 | -0.421 | Low | -5.64 |
| 2026-05-05 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | -0.77 | -0.97 | +1.551 | Low | +5.57 |
| 2026-06-02 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.59 | 2.52 | -0.723 | Low | -4.95 |
| 2026-06-02 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.08 | 2.97 | -0.285 | Medium | -3.91 |
| 2026-06-10 | Consumer Confidence | 120.9 | 124.0 | -0.444 | Low | -3.66 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.1 | 50.5 | -0.963 | Low | -3.38 |
| 2026-05-22 | Current Account | -4.0 | -0.8 | -0.551 | Low | -2.93 |
| 2026-06-02 | Balance of Trade | 0.09 | 1.5 | -0.196 | Medium | -2.69 |
| 2026-06-02 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.0 | 49.5 | +0.351 | Low | +2.41 |
| 2026-06-02 | Exports YoY | 21.98 | 8.8 | +0.333 | Low | +2.28 |
| 2026-07-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 145.6 | 145.0 | +0.146 | Low | +2.24 |
| 2026-05-04 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.44 | 2.5 | +0.624 | Low | +2.19 |
| 2026-06-02 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.28 | 0.14 | -0.240 | Low | -1.64 |
| 2026-06-02 | Imports YoY | 22.49 | 3.25 | +0.219 | Low | +1.50 |
| 2026-07-01 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.44 | 0.3 | -0.112 | Low | -1.50 |
| 2026-05-22 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.2 | 9.9 | -0.279 | Low | -1.49 |
| 2026-05-22 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.2 | 9.9 | -0.279 | Low | -1.49 |
| 2026-05-12 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.4 | 6.8 | -0.338 | Low | -1.43 |
| 2026-05-05 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.77 | -0.97 | +0.239 | Low | +0.86 |
| 2026-05-04 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.13 | 0.8 | +0.201 | Low | +0.70 |
| 2026-05-11 | Consumer Confidence | 123.0 | 122.0 | +0.146 | Low | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-08 | Property Price Index YoY | 0.62 | 0.5 | +0.131 | Low | +0.50 |
| 2026-05-04 | Balance of Trade | 3.32 | 4.2 | -0.044 | Medium | -0.31 |
| 2026-05-20 | Loan Growth YoY | 9.98 | 9.7 | +0.033 | Low | +0.17 |
| 2026-05-04 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 10.5 | 9.8 | +0.034 | Low | +0.12 |
| 2026-07-01 | Imports YoY | 22.16 | 19.5 | +0.005 | Low | +0.07 |
| 2026-06-18 | Deposit Facility Rate | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 5.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lending Facility Rate | 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |