India Economic Surprise Index
+5.1 ▬ vs 1w ago (+5.4)
India economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+5.1
1 Week Ago
+5.4
Releases (90d)
65
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nifty 50 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Bank Loan Growth YoY +3.38z
- Exports +1.72z
- HSBC Services PMI +0.52z
- Foreign Exchange Reserves +1.46z
- Unemployment Rate +0.99z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- HSBC Manufacturing PMI -0.42z
- HSBC Services PMI -0.73z
- Inflation Rate MoM -0.63z
- Inflation Rate YoY -0.24z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -0.53z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (65 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Bank Loan Growth YoY | 19.4 | 13.3 | +3.375 | Low | +65.43 |
| 2026-10-15 | Exports | 44.4 | 39.5 | +1.723 | Low | +32.64 |
| 2026-10-23 | HSBC Services PMI | 56.2 | 55.5 | +0.520 | Medium | +23.70 |
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 734.6 | 710.0 | +1.457 | Low | +22.94 |
| 2026-10-23 | HSBC Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 55.4 | -0.422 | Medium | -19.24 |
| 2026-10-15 | Unemployment Rate | 5.0 | 5.2 | +0.995 | Low | +18.84 |
| 2026-10-15 | Imports | 74.61 | 69.0 | +0.993 | Low | +18.81 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 7.8 | 7.1 | +1.216 | Medium | +16.29 |
| 2026-10-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56.7 | 56.2 | +0.303 | Medium | +13.81 |
| 2026-08-31 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 7.8 | 7.1 | +0.655 | High | +13.17 |
| 2026-10-06 | HSBC Services PMI | 55.2 | 56.2 | -0.733 | Low | -11.29 |
| 2026-10-12 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.69 | 0.3 | -0.633 | Low | -11.19 |
| 2026-09-15 | Balance of Trade | -26.86 | -33.0 | +0.552 | Medium | +10.47 |
| 2026-09-15 | Unemployment Rate | 5.0 | 5.2 | +0.995 | Low | +9.42 |
| 2026-08-31 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 7.8 | 7.1 | +0.655 | Medium | +8.78 |
| 2026-10-12 | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.54 | 5.4 | -0.242 | Medium | -8.57 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.1 | 55.7 | -0.530 | Low | -7.27 |
| 2026-08-17 | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.4 | +1.437 | Low | +6.96 |
| 2026-10-14 | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 9.76 | 8.3 | -0.356 | Low | -6.59 |
| 2026-08-21 | HSBC India Services PMI | 54.5 | 53.8 | +1.127 | Low | +5.99 |
| 2026-08-21 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.9 | 54.0 | -1.002 | Low | -5.33 |
| 2026-10-06 | S&P Global Services PMI | 55.9 | 56.5 | -0.328 | Low | -5.04 |
| 2026-10-21 | Infrastructure Output YoY | 7.9 | 5.7 | +0.220 | Low | +4.79 |
| 2026-09-03 | HSBC India Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.5 | -0.636 | Low | -4.57 |
| 2026-08-20 | Infrastructure Output YoY | 5.4 | 2.2 | +0.830 | Low | +4.31 |
| 2026-09-28 | Industrial Production YoY | 8.0 | 6.5 | +0.116 | Medium | +2.97 |
| 2026-10-15 | Balance of Trade | -30.21 | -29.5 | -0.071 | Medium | -2.71 |
| 2026-10-14 | WPI Inflation YoY | 11.39 | 10.18 | -0.123 | Low | -2.28 |
| 2026-09-03 | HSBC Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.5 | -0.303 | Low | -2.17 |
| 2026-09-01 | Current Account | -4.2 | -7.4 | +0.153 | Medium | +2.10 |
| 2026-09-28 | Manufacturing Production YoY | 9.0 | 5.9 | +0.069 | Medium | +1.78 |
| 2026-08-12 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.88 | 0.5 | -0.370 | Low | -1.60 |
| 2026-08-13 | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -30.2 | -0.175 | Medium | -1.55 |
| 2026-08-13 | Balance of Trade | -31.98 | -30.2 | -0.175 | Medium | -1.55 |
| 2026-08-12 | CPI YoY | 4.45 | 4.5 | +0.156 | Medium | +1.35 |
| 2026-08-03 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | 53.9 | -0.365 | Low | -1.28 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.3 | 54.6 | -0.169 | Low | -1.22 |
| 2026-08-05 | HSBC India Services PMI | 53.3 | 53.1 | +0.326 | Low | +1.20 |
| 2026-10-14 | WPI Food Index YoY | 8.66 | 7.4 | -0.059 | Low | -1.09 |
| 2026-09-30 | External Debt | 778.2 | 775.0 | -0.081 | Low | -1.08 |
| 2026-09-14 | WPI Fuel YoY | 22.93 | 15.0 | -0.113 | Low | -1.05 |
| 2026-09-14 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.73 | 0.6 | -0.105 | Low | -0.98 |
| 2026-08-12 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.45 | 4.5 | +0.104 | Medium | +0.90 |
| 2026-09-21 | Infrastructure Output YoY | 4.8 | 5.5 | -0.073 | Low | -0.79 |
| 2026-08-28 | Industrial Production YoY | 6.7 | 6.0 | +0.059 | Medium | +0.73 |
| 2026-09-14 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.82 | 4.8 | -0.039 | Medium | -0.72 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.8 | 52.9 | -0.093 | Low | -0.64 |
| 2026-08-21 | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.6 | 54.4 | +0.113 | Low | +0.60 |
| 2026-08-28 | Manufacturing Production YoY | 7.3 | 5.5 | +0.043 | Medium | +0.54 |
| 2026-10-14 | WPI Fuel YoY | 25.85 | 23.4 | -0.022 | Low | -0.42 |
| 2026-09-14 | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.37 | 8.5 | +0.031 | Low | +0.29 |
| 2026-08-14 | WPI Manufacturing YoY | 8.29 | 8.5 | +0.050 | Low | +0.23 |
| 2026-09-30 | Government Budget Value | -7102.5 | -5700.0 | -0.013 | Low | -0.18 |
| 2026-09-14 | WPI Food Index YoY | 7.05 | 6.7 | -0.018 | Low | -0.17 |
| 2026-08-31 | Government Budget Value | -4551.4 | -7000.0 | +0.019 | Low | +0.13 |
| 2026-07-31 | Government Budget Value | -3078.0 | -5400.0 | +0.023 | Low | +0.08 |
| 2026-08-14 | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.78 | 9.95 | +0.018 | Low | +0.08 |
| 2026-09-14 | WPI Inflation YoY | 9.92 | 9.89 | -0.003 | Low | -0.03 |
| 2026-08-14 | WPI Food Index YoY | 6.65 | 6.6 | -0.003 | Low | -0.01 |
| 2026-08-05 | Cash Reserve Ratio | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.3 | 54.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | WPI Fuel YoY | 20.05 | 20.0 | -0.001 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Cash Reserve Ratio | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |