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Economic Surprises › India
India -8.1 ▼ vs 1w ago (-1.5)
India economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-8.1
1 Week Ago
-1.5
Releases (90d)
82
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nifty 50 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (82 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-24 HSBC Services PMI 53.1 59.0 -3.567 Medium -158.89
2026-07-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 54.3 58.4 -2.165 Medium -96.43
2026-07-24 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 53.9 56.0 -1.734 Medium -77.26
2026-07-10 Foreign Exchange Reserves 674.19 715.0 -2.474 Low -39.88
2026-06-23 HSBC Services PMI 57.3 59.7 -1.434 Medium -31.21
2026-07-20 Infrastructure Output YoY 5.0 1.5 +1.315 Low +26.70
2026-06-23 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 54.5 55.5 -0.833 Medium -18.14
2026-06-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 57.4 58.8 -0.734 Medium -15.98
2026-07-13 Balance of Trade -30.43 -26.5 -0.436 Medium -15.05
2026-06-05 Gross Domestic Product YoY 7.8 7.2 +0.980 Medium +14.07
2026-06-30 Current Account 7.1 -15.0 +0.514 Medium +13.16
2026-07-14 WPI Manufacturing YoY 7.48 5.5 -0.709 Low -12.52
2026-05-20 Infrastructure Output YoY 1.7 -0.5 +2.479 Low +12.30
2026-06-05 GDP Growth Rate YoY 7.8 7.2 +0.546 High +11.75
2026-06-15 WPI Manufacturing YoY 7.48 4.9 -1.036 Low -9.37
2026-07-13 Exports 40.4 42.0 -0.536 Low -9.26
2026-07-13 Exports 40.41 42.0 -0.533 Low -9.20
2026-05-12 CPI YoY 3.48 3.8 +1.090 Medium +8.99
2026-06-03 HSBC India Services PMI 59.8 58.9 +1.254 Low +8.59
2026-07-13 CPI YoY 4.38 4.3 -0.241 Medium -8.32
2026-06-15 Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.3 -0.914 Low -8.27
2026-07-15 Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.4 -0.449 Low -8.12
2026-06-08 Current Account 7.1 -15.0 +0.514 Medium +7.91
2026-07-28 Industrial Production YoY 7.3 5.7 +0.140 Medium +6.85
2026-05-14 WPI Fuel YoY 24.71 3.0 -1.504 Low -6.50
2026-05-12 Inflation Rate YoY 3.48 3.8 +0.780 Medium +6.43
2026-05-21 HSBC Services PMI 58.9 57.9 +0.616 Medium +6.25
2026-05-21 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 54.3 55.0 -0.589 Medium -5.98
2026-07-13 Inflation Rate YoY 4.38 4.3 -0.172 Medium -5.95
2026-07-03 HSBC Services PMI 57.4 58.0 -0.369 Low -5.06
2026-06-29 External Debt 762.8 779.0 +0.396 Low +4.95
2026-06-29 External Debt 762.8 779.0 +0.396 Low +4.95
2026-05-06 HSBC India Services PMI 58.8 57.9 +1.275 Low +4.58
2026-06-22 Infrastructure Output YoY 0.5 1.9 -0.415 Low -4.41
2026-06-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 59.3 58.1 +0.637 Low +4.37
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 59.3 58.1 +0.617 Low +4.23
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 55.0 54.3 +0.617 Low +4.04
2026-05-14 WPI Inflation YoY 8.3 4.4 -0.909 Low -3.93
2026-06-01 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 55.0 54.3 +0.596 Low +3.90
2026-07-13 Inflation Rate MoM 1.03 0.7 -0.225 Low -3.88
2026-06-12 CPI YoY 3.93 4.0 +0.226 Medium +3.82
2026-07-28 Manufacturing Production YoY 7.8 5.0 +0.073 Medium +3.58
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.7 55.9 -1.028 Low -3.52
2026-06-15 WPI Food Index YoY 4.49 2.1 -0.381 Low -3.45
2026-07-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.2 54.5 -0.264 Low -3.45
2026-05-04 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 54.7 55.9 -0.993 Low -3.40
2026-07-01 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 54.2 54.5 -0.255 Low -3.33
2026-06-03 HSBC Services PMI 59.8 59.0 +0.484 Low +3.32
2026-05-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 58.1 57.5 +0.322 Medium +3.27
2026-05-06 HSBC Services PMI 58.8 57.5 +0.806 Low +2.89
2026-06-12 Inflation Rate YoY 3.93 4.0 +0.162 Medium +2.74
2026-07-13 Imports 70.84 70.0 +0.146 Low +2.53
2026-06-15 Balance of Trade -28.21 -27.0 -0.132 Medium -2.38
2026-07-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 57.1 57.4 -0.161 Low -2.21
2026-07-03 S&P Global Services PMI 57.1 57.4 -0.156 Low -2.14
2026-07-03 HSBC India Services PMI 57.4 57.3 +0.143 Low +1.96
2026-06-01 Industrial Production YoY 4.9 3.9 +0.128 Medium +1.68
2026-06-01 Industrial Production YoY 4.9 3.9 +0.128 Medium +1.68
2026-06-01 Industrial Production YoY 4.9 3.9 +0.128 Medium +1.68
2026-05-14 WPI Manufacturing YoY 4.62 3.9 -0.363 Low -1.57
2026-06-05 Fiscal Year GDP Growth 7.7 7.6 +0.199 Low +1.43
2026-07-14 WPI Inflation YoY 9.87 9.15 -0.081 Low -1.43
2026-05-15 Balance of Trade -28.38 -27.0 -0.150 Medium -1.33
2026-06-01 Manufacturing Production YoY 6.2 3.7 +0.088 Medium +1.16
2026-06-01 Manufacturing Production YoY 6.2 3.7 +0.088 Medium +1.16
2026-05-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.27 0.6 +0.262 Low +1.08
2026-06-29 Industrial Production YoY 5.1 4.7 +0.042 Medium +1.06
2026-06-15 WPI Inflation YoY 9.68 9.1 -0.065 Low -0.59
2026-06-30 Government Budget Value -1624.0 -5500.0 +0.037 Low +0.48
2026-06-15 WPI Fuel YoY 30.33 25.0 -0.044 Low -0.40
2026-06-01 Government Budget Value -3623.0 -1700.0 -0.060 Low -0.39
2026-06-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.75 0.7 -0.034 Low -0.29
2026-07-14 WPI Fuel YoY 27.41 25.9 -0.012 Low -0.21
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 58.2 58.3 -0.053 Low -0.19
2026-06-29 Manufacturing Production YoY 5.5 5.2 +0.008 Medium +0.19
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 58.2 58.3 -0.051 Low -0.18
2026-07-14 WPI Food Index YoY 6.14 6.0 -0.008 Low -0.14
2026-05-14 WPI Food Index YoY 2.31 2.2 -0.017 Low -0.07
2026-06-01 Government Budget Value -15191.7 -15800.0 +0.002 Low +0.01
2026-06-05 Interest Rate Decision 5.25 5.25 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-05 RBI Interest Rate Decision 5.25 5.25 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-05 Cash Reserve Ratio 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms