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Economic Surprises › India
India -3.9 ▲ vs 1w ago (-5.0)
India economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-3.9
1 Week Ago
-5.0
Releases (90d)
98
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nifty 50 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (98 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-01-14 WPI Inflation YoY 0.83 0.1 -7.417 Low -39.43
2026-02-12 Inflation Rate YoY 2.75 2.4 -1.336 Medium -27.76
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 7.8 7.2 +0.933 Medium +27.41
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 7.8 7.2 +0.933 Medium +27.41
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product YoY 7.8 7.2 +0.933 Medium +27.41
2026-02-12 CPI 2.75 2.4 -1.155 Medium -24.01
2026-02-12 CPI 2.75 2.4 -1.155 Medium -24.01
2026-02-12 CPI 2.75 2.4 -1.155 Medium -24.01
2026-02-12 CPI 2.75 2.4 -1.155 Medium -24.01
2026-02-27 GDP Growth Rate YoY 7.8 7.2 +0.541 High +23.86
2026-02-16 Balance of Trade -34.68 -26.0 -0.973 Medium -22.18
2026-03-16 Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.1 +0.946 Low +20.59
2026-01-23 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 56.8 55.4 +1.238 Medium +16.21
2026-01-23 HSBC Composite PMI 59.5 57.5 +1.216 Medium +15.92
2026-01-23 HSBC Services PMI 59.3 57.7 +1.080 Medium +14.14
2026-03-12 Inflation Rate YoY 3.21 3.1 -0.325 Medium -12.90
2026-02-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.35 0.1 -1.146 Low -11.90
2026-02-04 HSBC India Services PMI 58.5 59.3 -1.355 Low -11.70
2026-02-27 Fiscal Year GDP Growth 7.6 7.4 +0.398 Medium +11.69
2026-02-16 Unemployment Rate 5.0 4.8 -1.005 Low -11.45
2026-02-03 HSBC India Services PMI 58.5 59.3 -1.355 Low -11.44
2026-03-12 CPI 3.21 3.1 -0.281 Medium -11.16
2026-03-12 CPI 3.21 3.1 -0.281 Medium -11.16
2026-02-16 Balance of Trade -34.68 -26.14 -0.952 Low -10.85
2026-02-16 Balance of Trade -34.68 -26.14 -0.952 Low -10.85
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 55.4 56.8 -1.216 Low -10.03
2026-02-02 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 55.4 56.8 -1.208 Low -9.96
2026-02-16 WPI Manufacturing YoY 2.86 2.0 -0.843 Low -9.61
2026-01-12 CPI 1.33 1.5 +0.898 Medium +9.12
2026-03-04 HSBC India Services PMI 58.1 58.4 -0.516 Low -8.51
2026-03-04 HSBC India Services PMI 58.1 58.4 -0.516 Low -8.51
2026-03-03 HSBC India Services PMI 58.1 58.4 -0.516 Low -8.32
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.5 -0.515 Low -8.11
2026-03-20 Infrastructure Output YoY 2.3 4.4 -0.276 Low -6.60
2026-03-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.11 0.3 +0.290 Low +5.76
2026-02-04 HSBC Composite PMI 58.4 59.5 -0.646 Low -5.58
2026-02-04 Services PMI 58.4 59.5 -0.642 Low -5.54
2026-03-04 HSBC Services PMI 58.1 58.6 -0.332 Low -5.48
2026-02-03 Services PMI 58.4 59.5 -0.642 Low -5.41
2026-01-15 Balance of Trade -25.04 -30.0 +0.482 Medium +5.24
2026-01-07 Fiscal Year GDP Growth 7.4 7.7 -0.573 Medium -5.19
2026-01-07 Fiscal Year GDP Growth 7.4 7.7 -0.573 Medium -5.19
2026-02-16 WPI Inflation YoY 1.81 1.25 -0.455 Low -5.19
2026-02-04 HSBC Services PMI 58.5 59.4 -0.590 Low -5.10
2026-01-13 Inflation Rate YoY 1.33 1.4 +0.458 Medium +4.76
2026-01-20 Infrastructure Output YoY 3.7 1.6 +0.760 Low +4.64
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 58.4 59.5 -0.536 Low -4.63
2026-03-16 Balance of Trade -27.1 -28.0 +0.094 Medium +4.08
2026-03-02 Industrial Production YoY 4.8 6.5 -0.127 Medium -4.01
2026-03-04 HSBC Composite PMI 58.9 59.3 -0.236 Low -3.89
2026-03-04 Services PMI 58.9 59.3 -0.234 Low -3.86
2026-03-04 Services PMI 58.9 59.3 -0.234 Low -3.86
2026-03-03 Services PMI 58.9 59.3 -0.234 Low -3.77
2026-02-16 WPI Food Index YoY 1.41 0.7 -0.324 Low -3.69
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 58.9 59.3 -0.196 Low -3.23
2026-01-06 HSBC Services PMI 58.0 59.1 -0.725 Low -3.20
2026-01-28 Industrial Production YoY 7.8 5.5 +0.203 Medium +2.99
2026-01-06 HSBC Composite PMI 57.8 58.9 -0.653 Low -2.89
2026-02-16 WPI Fuel YoY -4.01 -1.8 +0.254 Low +2.89
2026-01-06 Services PMI 57.8 58.9 -0.648 Low -2.86
2026-01-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 55.0 55.7 -0.620 Low -2.50
2026-01-02 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 55.0 55.7 -0.616 Low -2.48
2026-01-06 S&P Global Services PMI 58.0 59.1 -0.540 Low -2.38
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 55.4 56.8 -0.288 Low -2.37
2026-02-01 Manufacturing PMI 55.4 56.8 -0.288 Low -2.32
2026-02-01 Manufacturing PMI 55.4 56.8 -0.288 Low -2.32
2025-12-29 Industrial Production YoY 6.7 4.1 +0.309 Medium +2.27
2026-01-14 WPI Manufacturing YoY 1.82 1.5 -0.418 Low -2.22
2026-03-16 Balance of Trade -27.1 -28.0 +0.094 Low +2.04
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.5 -0.122 Low -1.92
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.5 -0.122 Low -1.92
2026-03-01 Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.5 -0.122 Low -1.87
2026-02-20 Infrastructure Output YoY 4.0 3.2 +0.145 Low +1.81
2026-01-13 Inflation Rate MoM 0.05 0.2 +0.344 Low +1.79
2026-01-14 WPI Food Index YoY 0.0 -1.0 -0.319 Low -1.70
2026-03-02 Manufacturing Production YoY 4.8 7.8 -0.049 Medium -1.53
2026-01-14 WPI Fuel YoY -2.31 -1.0 +0.271 Low +1.44
2026-03-16 WPI Inflation YoY 2.13 2.0 -0.066 Low -1.44
2026-03-16 WPI Manufacturing YoY 2.92 3.0 +0.052 Low +1.14
2025-12-29 Manufacturing Production YoY 8.0 4.6 +0.093 Medium +0.69
2025-12-31 External Debt 746.0 750.0 +0.091 Low +0.35
2026-03-16 WPI Fuel YoY -3.78 -3.6 +0.010 Low +0.23
2025-12-22 Infrastructure Output YoY 1.8 2.0 -0.058 Low -0.18
2026-03-16 WPI Food Index YoY 1.85 1.9 +0.008 Low +0.18
2026-02-27 Government Budget Value -9814.0 -12500.0 +0.011 Low +0.16
2026-01-30 Government Budget Value -8558.4 -9990.0 +0.007 Low +0.06
2025-12-31 Government Budget Value -9766.7 -9200.0 -0.003 Low -0.01
2026-01-15 Unemployment Rate 4.8 4.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-05 Cash Reserve Ratio 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 5.25 5.25 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 5.25 5.25 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-06 Cash Reserve Ratio 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-06 RBI Interest Rate Decision 5.25 5.25 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-06 Interest Rate Decision 5.25 5.25 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-20 HSBC Services PMI 58.4 58.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-20 HSBC Composite PMI 59.3 59.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-20 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-02 HSBC Manufacturing PMI 56.9 56.9 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms