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Economic Surprises › Italy
Italy -5.0 ▬ vs 1w ago (-5.3)
Italy economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-5.0
1 Week Ago
-5.3
Releases (90d)
141
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE MIB Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (141 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate MoM 0.8 0.2 -2.869 Medium -92.49
2026-03-04 Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.6 +1.899 Medium +62.63
2026-03-03 CPI 0.8 0.3 -3.550 Low -57.21
2026-03-03 CPI 0.8 0.3 -3.550 Low -57.21
2026-03-03 CPI 0.8 0.3 -3.550 Low -57.21
2026-02-27 Industrial Sales YoY 3.6 0.4 +3.689 Low +54.21
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.1 +1.714 Medium +53.97
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.1 -1.091 High -52.73
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.211 Low -51.75
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.211 Low -51.75
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.211 Low -51.75
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.211 Low -51.75
2026-03-03 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.153 Low -50.82
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.789 Low -44.95
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.789 Low -44.95
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.789 Low -44.95
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.789 Low -44.95
2026-03-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.0 +1.182 Medium +37.23
2026-03-13 Industrial Production MoM -0.6 0.3 -0.636 Medium -25.81
2026-01-30 Producer Price Index YoY -1.4 -0.3 +3.144 Low +24.19
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.5 +0.752 Medium +23.69
2026-02-04 Services PMI 52.9 51.3 +1.318 Medium +22.76
2026-02-04 Services PMI 52.9 51.3 +1.318 Medium +22.76
2026-01-06 HCOB Services PMI 51.5 54.7 -2.508 Medium -22.16
2026-02-04 HCOB Services PMI 52.9 51.4 +1.251 Medium +21.61
2026-03-05 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.2 +0.639 Medium +21.58
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.5 +0.863 High +19.92
2026-01-06 Services PMI 51.5 54.2 -2.105 Medium -18.60
2026-02-26 Business Confidence 88.5 89.5 -0.639 Medium -18.36
2026-03-05 HCOB Construction PMI 50.4 48.5 +1.057 Low +17.85
2026-02-05 Retail Sales MoM -0.8 0.4 -0.959 Medium -16.95
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.5 +2.135 Low +16.42
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.5 +2.135 Low +16.42
2026-01-08 Unemployment Rate 5.7 6.0 +1.063 High +14.76
2026-03-20 Current Account -1785.0 -750.0 -0.593 Low -14.15
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.601 High +13.88
2026-01-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 47.9 50.2 -1.659 Medium -13.37
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY 14.0 4.3 +0.760 Low +12.25
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY 14.0 4.3 +0.760 Low +12.25
2026-01-02 Manufacturing PMI 47.9 50.0 -1.422 Medium -11.46
2026-01-30 Unemployment Rate 5.6 5.8 +0.733 Medium +11.28
2026-01-06 HCOB Composite PMI 50.3 53.2 -2.379 Low -10.51
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 52.9 51.3 +1.183 Low +10.22
2026-03-03 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.1 -0.595 Low -9.59
2026-03-20 Construction Output YoY -0.6 4.8 -0.365 Low -8.72
2026-02-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 48.1 48.8 -0.519 Medium -8.57
2026-03-17 HICP YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.383 Low +8.54
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY -0.6 0.8 -0.407 Low -8.26
2026-03-04 HCOB Services PMI 52.3 52.0 +0.247 Medium +8.16
2026-03-04 Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.241 Medium -7.95
2026-03-04 Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.241 Medium -7.95
2026-03-04 Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.241 Medium -7.95
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 48.1 48.5 -0.463 Medium -7.63
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.216 Medium -7.14
2026-03-04 HCOB Composite PMI 52.1 51.6 +0.423 Low +6.97
2026-02-04 HICP YoY 1.0 0.9 -0.682 Low -5.89
2026-02-04 HICP YoY 1.0 0.9 -0.682 Low -5.89
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.763 Low +5.87
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.763 Low +5.87
2026-03-02 Government Budget -3.1 -3.0 -0.123 High -5.80
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index MoM 1.5 0.7 -0.299 Low -5.67
2026-02-04 HCOB Composite PMI 51.4 50.7 +0.603 Low +5.20
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index YoY -1.6 -2.3 -0.261 Low -4.94
2026-01-30 Producer Price Index MoM -0.7 0.5 +0.629 Low +4.84
2026-01-15 Industrial Production MoM 1.5 0.5 +0.424 Medium +4.61
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 48.1 48.5 -0.279 Medium -4.60
2026-03-05 Retail Sales YoY 2.3 1.0 +0.256 Low +4.33
2026-01-15 Industrial Production YoY 1.4 -0.6 +0.774 Low +4.21
2026-02-20 Construction Output YoY 5.4 2.7 +0.325 Low +4.06
2026-02-11 Industrial Production YoY 3.2 1.2 +0.387 Low +3.93
2026-02-05 HCOB Construction PMI 47.7 48.4 -0.390 Low -3.45
2026-03-17 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.150 Low +3.34
2026-01-09 Retail Sales MoM 0.5 0.3 +0.213 High +3.03
2026-03-20 Balance of Trade 1.089 5.6 -0.063 Medium -3.01
2026-01-07 Inflation Rate YoY 1.2 1.1 -0.218 High -2.96
2026-02-19 Current Account 3109.0 1990.0 +0.242 Low +2.95
2026-01-07 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.1 -0.631 Low -2.85
2026-03-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.8 +0.120 Low +2.66
2026-02-02 New Car Registrations YoY 6.2 3.2 +0.316 Low +2.61
2026-01-07 HCOB Construction PMI 47.9 48.9 -0.552 Low -2.50
2026-02-26 Consumer Confidence 97.4 97.2 +0.084 Medium +2.42
2026-03-17 HICP MoM 0.5 0.6 +0.107 Low +2.38
2026-03-17 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.6 +0.105 Low +2.34
2026-01-28 Business Confidence 89.2 89.0 +0.129 Medium +1.89
2026-03-17 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.082 Low +1.82
2025-12-22 Producer Price Index YoY -0.2 -0.6 -0.572 Low -1.79
2026-02-04 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 0.9 -0.145 Low -1.26
2026-01-28 Consumer Confidence 96.8 97.0 -0.084 Medium -1.24
2026-01-07 CPI 1.2 1.1 -0.194 Low -0.88
2026-02-11 Industrial Production MoM -0.4 -0.5 +0.042 Medium +0.86
2025-12-22 Producer Price Index MoM 1.0 0.5 -0.262 Low -0.82
2026-01-20 Current Account -1333.0 -1800.0 +0.111 Low +0.68
2026-02-05 Retail Sales YoY 0.9 1.4 -0.070 Low -0.62
2026-02-17 Balance of Trade 6.037 4.5 +0.027 Medium +0.62
2026-01-09 Retail Sales YoY 1.3 1.5 -0.026 High -0.37
2026-02-27 Industrial Sales MoM 0.5 0.6 -0.025 Low -0.36
2026-01-05 New Car Registrations YoY 2.2 2.5 -0.040 Low -0.17
2026-01-15 Balance of Trade 5.078 5.2 -0.002 Medium -0.02
2026-01-07 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-07 HICP YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-07 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-01-16 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-16 HICP MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-16 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-16 Inflation Rate YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-16 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-16 HICP YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-21 Construction Output YoY 3.2 3.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 48.1 48.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-04 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-04 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-04 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-04 CPI 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-04 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-04 Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-02 Full Year GDP Growth 0.5 0.5 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms