Italy
+5.7
▬
vs 1w ago (+5.3)
Italy economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+5.7
1 Week Ago
+5.3
Releases (90d)
104
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE MIB Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Industrial Sales YoY +8.24z
- New Car Sales YoY +3.65z
- Inflation Rate MoM +0.95z
- Industrial Production MoM +1.28z
- Consumer Confidence +1.50z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Inflation Rate MoM -2.85z
- Consumer Confidence -0.91z
- CPI MoM -2.64z
- S&P Global Construction PMI -0.95z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -0.46z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (104 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Industrial Sales YoY | 4.4 | 0.1 | +8.238 | Low | +48.04 |
| 2026-07-01 | New Car Sales YoY | 10.6 | 1.9 | +3.650 | Low | +47.79 |
| 2026-05-29 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -2.850 | Medium | -34.81 |
| 2026-06-30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.0 | 0.1 | +0.950 | Medium | +24.30 |
| 2026-06-26 | Consumer Confidence | 92.4 | 94.5 | -0.909 | Medium | -21.21 |
| 2026-06-10 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | +1.280 | Medium | +20.63 |
| 2026-05-28 | Consumer Confidence | 93.4 | 90.1 | +1.499 | Medium | +17.89 |
| 2026-05-29 | CPI MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -2.640 | Low | -16.12 |
| 2026-06-19 | Construction Output YoY | 2.7 | -0.7 | +1.593 | Low | +15.81 |
| 2026-07-06 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 45.4 | 49.0 | -0.955 | Low | -14.04 |
| 2026-06-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.9 | 52.0 | +1.051 | Medium | +13.76 |
| 2026-07-16 | HICP MoM | 0.0 | 0.1 | +0.679 | Low | +12.57 |
| 2026-05-06 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.8 | 47.6 | +1.714 | Medium | +12.31 |
| 2026-07-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | 52.6 | -0.462 | Medium | -12.09 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.0 | 0.1 | +0.640 | Low | +11.86 |
| 2026-07-02 | Unemployment Rate | 5.0 | 5.1 | +0.422 | Medium | +11.30 |
| 2026-04-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.1 | +1.204 | High | +11.29 |
| 2026-06-30 | CPI MoM | 0.0 | 0.2 | +0.880 | Low | +11.26 |
| 2026-06-03 | New Car Sales YoY | 7.6 | 2.5 | +1.626 | Low | +11.15 |
| 2026-06-30 | CPI YoY | 3.0 | 3.1 | +0.839 | Low | +10.74 |
| 2026-06-04 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 49.4 | 44.2 | +1.530 | Low | +10.73 |
| 2026-05-29 | Unemployment Rate | 5.1 | 5.3 | +0.811 | Medium | +9.91 |
| 2026-07-03 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | +0.323 | Medium | +8.85 |
| 2026-04-30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.2 | 0.5 | -1.330 | Medium | -8.31 |
| 2026-05-06 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.8 | -0.4 | +0.968 | Medium | +6.95 |
| 2026-07-17 | Current Account | 594.0 | 2500.0 | -0.334 | Low | -6.33 |
| 2026-04-30 | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | -2.001 | Low | -6.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.2 | 50.5 | -0.220 | Medium | -6.04 |
| 2026-05-04 | New Car Sales YoY | 11.6 | 3.7 | +1.702 | Low | +5.83 |
| 2026-05-27 | Industrial Sales MoM | 2.0 | -0.4 | +0.912 | Low | +5.32 |
| 2026-06-30 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.4 | +0.400 | Low | +5.12 |
| 2026-06-05 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.323 | Medium | -4.63 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.1 | +1.464 | Low | +4.57 |
| 2026-04-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 0.6 | +0.484 | High | +4.53 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.732 | Low | +4.47 |
| 2026-05-12 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | +0.533 | Medium | +4.40 |
| 2026-05-15 | CPI YoY | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.929 | Low | +4.11 |
| 2026-07-16 | HICP YoY | 3.0 | 3.1 | +0.209 | Low | +3.87 |
| 2026-05-29 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.602 | Low | +3.68 |
| 2026-07-10 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.107 | Medium | -3.44 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.8 | 0.7 | +0.540 | Low | +3.30 |
| 2026-04-30 | HICP YoY | 2.9 | 2.5 | -1.036 | Low | -3.24 |
| 2026-05-28 | Business Confidence | 87.9 | 87.5 | +0.262 | Medium | +3.13 |
| 2026-06-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.4 | 49.1 | +0.227 | Medium | +3.11 |
| 2026-06-30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.1 | +0.078 | High | +3.01 |
| 2026-05-06 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.5 | 49.0 | +0.816 | Low | +2.93 |
| 2026-05-07 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 44.8 | 47.4 | -0.713 | Low | -2.62 |
| 2026-04-30 | Unemployment Rate | 5.2 | 5.3 | +0.406 | Medium | +2.54 |
| 2026-06-25 | Industrial Sales MoM | 0.3 | -0.7 | +0.217 | Low | +2.47 |
| 2026-06-18 | Current Account | 2258.0 | 1490.0 | +0.226 | Low | +2.19 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.7 | 0.6 | +0.630 | Low | +1.97 |
| 2026-05-20 | Construction Output YoY | -0.2 | 1.1 | -0.388 | Low | -1.92 |
| 2026-06-16 | HICP YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.196 | Low | +1.82 |
| 2026-04-30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | -0.187 | High | -1.75 |
| 2026-07-17 | Construction Output YoY | 2.9 | 2.3 | +0.086 | Low | +1.62 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.9 | +0.234 | Medium | +1.60 |
| 2026-06-16 | HICP MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.170 | Low | +1.57 |
| 2026-05-06 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.7 | 1.2 | +0.419 | Low | +1.50 |
| 2026-06-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.160 | Low | +1.48 |
| 2026-06-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.4 | 50.0 | +0.213 | Low | +1.46 |
| 2026-07-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.8 | 50.6 | +0.105 | Low | +1.44 |
| 2026-05-28 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 2.5 | +0.235 | Low | +1.40 |
| 2026-05-29 | HICP MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.226 | Low | -1.38 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.213 | Low | -1.30 |
| 2026-05-29 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 0.7 | +0.207 | Low | +1.27 |
| 2026-05-28 | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 9.1 | +0.207 | Low | +1.24 |
| 2026-05-29 | HICP YoY | 3.3 | 3.2 | -0.202 | Low | -1.24 |
| 2026-05-12 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.5 | 0.7 | +0.269 | Low | +1.11 |
| 2026-05-21 | Current Account | 1748.0 | 1200.0 | +0.200 | Low | +1.02 |
| 2026-05-15 | HICP YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.223 | Low | +0.99 |
| 2026-04-30 | CPI MoM | 1.2 | 0.9 | -0.293 | Low | -0.92 |
| 2026-06-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.3 | 7.9 | +0.062 | Low | +0.80 |
| 2026-07-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.1 | +0.043 | Low | +0.79 |
| 2026-06-05 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | 3.2 | -0.101 | Low | -0.72 |
| 2026-04-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.5 | -0.213 | Low | -0.66 |
| 2026-04-30 | HICP MoM | 1.7 | 1.3 | -0.209 | Low | -0.65 |
| 2026-04-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.7 | 1.3 | -0.197 | Low | -0.62 |
| 2026-07-03 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.2 | 1.8 | +0.045 | Low | +0.61 |
| 2026-07-10 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1.3 | -0.036 | Low | -0.58 |
| 2026-05-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.087 | Low | +0.38 |
| 2026-06-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.040 | Low | +0.37 |
| 2026-05-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.1 | 1.2 | +0.079 | Low | +0.35 |
| 2026-06-10 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.3 | 1.1 | +0.043 | Low | +0.34 |
| 2026-05-15 | CPI MoM | 1.1 | 1.2 | +0.073 | Low | +0.32 |
| 2026-05-29 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.2 | -0.042 | Low | -0.25 |
| 2026-06-15 | Balance of Trade | 4.293 | 5.19 | -0.014 | Medium | -0.25 |
| 2026-05-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.046 | Low | +0.20 |
| 2026-07-16 | Balance of Trade | 4.793 | 4.5 | +0.005 | Medium | +0.19 |
| 2026-05-15 | HICP MoM | 1.6 | 1.7 | +0.040 | Low | +0.18 |
| 2026-05-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 1.6 | 1.7 | +0.038 | Low | +0.17 |
| 2026-06-25 | Industrial Sales YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | -0.011 | Low | -0.13 |
| 2026-05-18 | Balance of Trade | 4.709 | 5.2 | -0.007 | Medium | -0.07 |
| 2026-05-29 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | CPI YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | CPI MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | CPI YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | Business Confidence | 88.4 | 88.4 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | HICP YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | CPI YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |