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Economic Surprises › Italy
Italy +0.9 ▬ vs 1w ago (+0.8)
Italy economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+0.9
1 Week Ago
+0.8
Releases (90d)
158
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE MIB Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (158 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 49.8 47.6 +1.632 Medium +59.05
2026-05-04 New Car Sales YoY 11.6 3.7 +3.383 Low +58.44
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.1 +1.200 High +56.69
2026-04-28 Producer Price Index YoY 4.2 0.8 -3.455 Low -51.96
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate MoM 1.2 0.5 -1.345 Medium -42.37
2026-05-06 Retail Sales MoM 0.8 -0.4 +0.962 Medium +34.80
2026-04-07 S&P Global Services PMI 48.8 51.0 -1.523 Medium -28.20
2026-03-26 Business Confidence 88.8 86.0 +1.855 Medium +26.03
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate MoM 0.8 0.2 -2.882 Medium -23.77
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 2.8 2.6 -1.466 Low -23.09
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.6 +0.481 High +22.74
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.1 +1.442 Low +22.71
2026-05-12 Industrial Production MoM 0.7 0.2 +0.533 Medium +22.14
2026-03-04 Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.6 +1.910 Medium +16.12
2026-04-30 HICP YoY 2.9 2.5 -1.002 Low -15.79
2026-04-28 Industrial Sales YoY 0.5 -0.4 +1.042 Low +15.66
2026-05-15 CPI YoY 2.7 2.8 +0.681 Low +15.16
2026-03-03 New Car Sales YoY 14.0 4.3 +3.575 Low +14.74
2026-03-03 CPI 0.8 0.3 -3.550 Low -14.64
2026-03-03 CPI 0.8 0.3 -3.550 Low -14.64
2026-03-03 CPI 0.8 0.3 -3.550 Low -14.64
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.1 +1.810 Medium +14.59
2026-03-26 Consumer Confidence 92.6 95.0 -1.037 Medium -14.55
2026-04-02 New Car Sales YoY 7.6 3.6 +1.761 Low +14.52
2026-04-01 New Car Sales YoY 7.6 3.6 +1.761 Low +14.19
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 44.8 47.4 -0.761 Low -14.08
2026-02-27 Industrial Sales YoY 3.6 0.4 +3.703 Low +13.92
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 50.5 49.0 +0.767 Low +13.87
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.320 Low -13.69
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.320 Low -13.69
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.320 Low -13.69
2026-03-03 HICP MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.320 Low -13.69
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.1 -1.098 High -13.58
2026-03-03 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.1 -3.179 Low -13.11
2026-04-30 Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.3 +0.404 Medium +12.71
2026-04-28 Producer Price Index MoM 4.4 1.1 -0.792 Low -11.91
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.848 Low -11.74
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.848 Low -11.74
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.848 Low -11.74
2026-03-03 HICP YoY 1.6 1.1 -2.848 Low -11.74
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.5 +1.317 Medium +10.61
2026-03-03 CPI MoM 0.8 0.3 -2.551 Low -10.52
2026-04-07 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.2 51.5 -1.119 Low -10.36
2026-04-08 S&P Global Construction PMI 46.8 50.6 -1.042 Low -9.87
2026-05-20 Construction Output YoY -0.2 1.1 -0.386 Low -9.65
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.7 0.6 +0.612 Low +9.63
2026-03-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.0 +1.182 Medium +9.53
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.6 -0.186 High -8.78
2026-04-30 CPI MoM 1.2 0.9 -0.510 Low -8.03
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.1 51.9 +0.228 Medium +7.89
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.3 50.9 +0.466 Medium +7.51
2026-05-06 Retail Sales YoY 3.7 1.2 +0.415 Low +7.50
2026-03-17 CPI YoY 1.5 1.6 +1.191 Low +6.79
2026-03-13 Industrial Production MoM -0.6 0.3 -0.639 Medium -6.64
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.5 +0.756 Medium +6.09
2026-05-12 Industrial Production YoY 1.5 0.7 +0.267 Low +5.55
2026-03-05 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.2 +0.641 Medium +5.54
2026-04-29 Consumer Confidence 90.8 91.2 -0.180 Medium -5.54
2026-04-02 Retail Sales MoM 0.0 0.4 -0.321 Medium -5.29
2026-03-31 Industrial Sales YoY -1.0 3.0 -0.617 Low -4.86
2026-05-15 HICP YoY 2.8 2.9 +0.216 Low +4.81
2026-04-16 HICP YoY 1.6 1.5 -0.418 Low -4.76
2026-02-26 Business Confidence 88.5 89.5 -0.637 Medium -4.68
2026-03-05 HCOB Construction PMI 50.4 48.5 +1.057 Low +4.57
2026-03-31 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.7 +0.275 Medium +4.32
2026-04-01 Manufacturing PMI 51.3 50.9 +0.267 Medium +4.31
2026-03-30 Producer Price Index MoM -0.4 0.5 +0.475 Low +3.66
2026-03-20 Current Account -1785.0 -750.0 -0.596 Low -3.64
2026-04-10 Industrial Production MoM 0.1 0.5 -0.170 Medium -3.38
2026-04-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.5 -0.211 Low -3.32
2026-04-30 HICP MoM 1.7 1.3 -0.204 Low -3.22
2026-03-31 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.8 +0.134 High +3.17
2026-04-17 Current Account 3654.0 2250.0 +0.269 Low +3.14
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY 14.0 4.3 +0.760 Low +3.13
2026-03-03 New Car Registrations YoY 14.0 4.3 +0.760 Low +3.13
2026-03-30 Producer Price Index YoY -2.7 -1.8 +0.406 Low +3.13
2026-04-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.7 1.3 -0.196 Low -3.08
2026-05-15 CPI MoM 1.1 1.2 +0.128 Low +2.84
2026-03-03 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.1 -0.599 Low -2.47
2026-03-05 S&P Global Construction PMI 50.4 48.5 +0.543 Low +2.35
2026-03-20 Construction Output YoY -0.6 4.8 -0.367 Low -2.24
2026-03-17 HICP YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.392 Low +2.23
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY -0.6 0.8 -0.409 Low -2.13
2026-03-04 HCOB Services PMI 52.3 52.0 +0.247 Medium +2.09
2026-03-04 Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.241 Medium -2.03
2026-03-04 Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.241 Medium -2.03
2026-03-04 Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.241 Medium -2.03
2026-03-31 CPI MoM 0.5 0.6 +0.255 Low +2.01
2026-04-29 Business Confidence 87.9 88.0 -0.065 Medium -1.99
2026-05-15 Inflation Rate YoY 2.7 2.8 +0.086 Low +1.92
2026-03-04 HCOB Composite PMI 52.1 51.6 +0.423 Low +1.78
2026-05-15 Inflation Rate MoM 1.1 1.2 +0.080 Low +1.78
2026-03-31 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.8 +0.220 Low +1.73
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 52.3 52.0 +0.204 Medium +1.72
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 52.3 52.6 -0.201 Medium -1.70
2026-04-20 Construction Output YoY 1.4 1.0 +0.131 Low +1.63
2026-03-02 Government Budget -3.1 -3.0 -0.123 High -1.48
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index MoM 1.5 0.7 -0.302 Low -1.46
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index YoY -1.6 -2.3 -0.247 Low -1.20
2026-03-05 Retail Sales YoY 2.3 1.0 +0.259 Low +1.12
2026-03-17 CPI MoM 0.7 0.8 +0.191 Low +1.09
2026-02-20 Construction Output YoY 5.4 2.7 +0.327 Low +1.04
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.1 51.6 +0.243 Low +1.02
2026-05-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.9 +0.045 Low +1.01
2026-04-16 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.5 -0.088 Low -1.00
2026-05-15 HICP MoM 1.6 1.7 +0.039 Low +0.87
2026-03-17 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.151 Low +0.86
2026-05-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.6 1.7 +0.037 Low +0.83
2026-03-20 Balance of Trade 1.089 5.6 -0.063 Medium -0.78
2026-02-19 Current Account 3109.0 1990.0 +0.243 Low +0.76
2026-03-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.8 +0.120 Low +0.68
2026-03-17 HICP MoM 0.5 0.6 +0.111 Low +0.63
2026-02-26 Consumer Confidence 97.4 97.2 +0.084 Medium +0.62
2026-03-17 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.6 +0.106 Low +0.60
2026-03-31 Industrial Sales MoM -0.3 -0.2 -0.075 Low -0.59
2026-04-02 Retail Sales YoY 1.6 2.5 -0.072 Low -0.59
2026-03-31 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.6 1.8 +0.071 Low +0.56
2026-04-17 Balance of Trade 4.944 3.83 +0.023 Medium +0.53
2026-03-17 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.082 Low +0.47
2026-04-16 HICP MoM 1.7 1.6 -0.041 Low -0.47
2026-04-16 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 1.7 1.6 -0.040 Low -0.45
2026-04-28 Industrial Sales MoM 0.6 0.5 +0.030 Low +0.45
2026-05-18 Balance of Trade 4.709 5.2 -0.007 Medium -0.36
2026-02-27 Industrial Sales MoM 0.5 0.6 -0.025 Low -0.09
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP YoY 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 CPI 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-23 HICP MoM -1.0 -1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-02 Full Year GDP Growth 0.5 0.5 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-01 Unemployment Rate 5.3 5.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-10 Industrial Production YoY 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-16 CPI MoM 0.5 0.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-16 CPI YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-16 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-16 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.5 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms