Italy Economic Surprise Index
-2.4 ▬ vs 1w ago (-2.4)
Italy economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-2.4
1 Week Ago
-2.4
Releases (90d)
88
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE MIB Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Retail Sales MoM +1.29z
- New Car Sales YoY +2.48z
- Business Confidence +0.89z
- S&P Global Construction PMI +1.32z
- S&P Global Services PMI +1.01z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Unemployment Rate -1.84z
- S&P Global Services PMI -1.80z
- Consumer Confidence -1.22z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -1.94z
- Inflation Rate MoM -1.43z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (88 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Unemployment Rate | 6.2 | 5.7 | -1.837 | High | -75.57 |
| 2026-10-02 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.3 | -0.1 | +1.291 | High | +54.34 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.7 | 54.6 | -1.798 | Medium | -54.08 |
| 2026-10-01 | New Car Sales YoY | 9.9 | 2.0 | +2.483 | Low | +34.04 |
| 2026-09-30 | Consumer Confidence | 91.2 | 94.0 | -1.221 | Medium | -32.72 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 51.4 | -1.939 | Medium | -26.58 |
| 2026-09-30 | Business Confidence | 91.9 | 90.5 | +0.893 | Medium | +23.94 |
| 2026-10-06 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 46.5 | 42.0 | +1.317 | Low | +20.27 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -1.433 | Medium | -19.65 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unemployment Rate | 5.7 | 5.1 | -2.464 | Medium | -15.76 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 55.2 | 53.6 | +1.011 | Medium | +14.51 |
| 2026-09-04 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.968 | Medium | -14.23 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.0 | 52.9 | -0.922 | Low | -13.86 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | 50.0 | +0.443 | Medium | +12.14 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.1 | +1.208 | High | +11.59 |
| 2026-09-29 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.4 | 0.7 | -0.657 | Low | -8.60 |
| 2026-08-06 | Industrial Production MoM | -1.0 | 0.3 | -0.928 | Medium | -6.98 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.0 | 0.7 | +0.627 | High | +6.01 |
| 2026-09-02 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.4 | 0.6 | -0.811 | Low | -5.69 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.0 | 0.7 | +1.639 | Low | +5.24 |
| 2026-07-31 | Consumer Confidence | 94.2 | 92.5 | +0.754 | Medium | +4.93 |
| 2026-09-29 | Industrial Sales MoM | 1.7 | 0.5 | +0.371 | Low | +4.85 |
| 2026-09-10 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | +0.286 | Medium | +4.82 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.1 | +1.463 | Low | +4.68 |
| 2026-08-04 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.645 | Medium | -4.63 |
| 2026-08-12 | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.976 | Low | -4.22 |
| 2026-10-09 | Industrial Production YoY | 0.0 | -0.3 | +0.237 | Low | +3.92 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.1 | -0.158 | High | -3.25 |
| 2026-07-31 | Business Confidence | 89.6 | 88.9 | +0.455 | Medium | +2.98 |
| 2026-08-28 | Consumer Confidence | 94.5 | 95.0 | -0.216 | Medium | -2.70 |
| 2026-09-18 | Construction Output YoY | 0.6 | 2.9 | -0.264 | Low | -2.68 |
| 2026-08-19 | Current Account | 5839.0 | 2680.0 | +0.524 | Low | +2.66 |
| 2026-10-20 | Current Account | 2766.0 | 3800.0 | -0.121 | Low | -2.57 |
| 2026-10-02 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.058 | High | -2.45 |
| 2026-10-16 | Balance of Trade | 1.773 | 7.5 | -0.061 | Medium | -2.37 |
| 2026-08-28 | Industrial Sales MoM | -1.0 | -0.3 | -0.360 | Low | -2.25 |
| 2026-09-29 | Producer Price Index YoY | 10.9 | 9.1 | -0.165 | Low | -2.16 |
| 2026-08-12 | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.496 | Low | -2.14 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.318 | Medium | +2.08 |
| 2026-08-12 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.478 | Low | -2.06 |
| 2026-09-10 | Industrial Production YoY | 0.0 | -0.6 | +0.237 | Low | +2.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.8 | 5.9 | -0.268 | Low | -1.88 |
| 2026-09-29 | Industrial Sales YoY | 4.8 | 2.9 | +0.128 | Low | +1.67 |
| 2026-09-18 | Current Account | 7384.0 | 5400.0 | +0.163 | Low | +1.66 |
| 2026-09-01 | New Car Sales YoY | 3.2 | 5.1 | -0.234 | Low | -1.61 |
| 2026-10-20 | Construction Output YoY | -2.2 | -1.8 | -0.074 | Low | -1.57 |
| 2026-08-06 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.6 | 1.0 | -0.380 | Low | -1.43 |
| 2026-09-18 | Construction Output YoY | -1.2 | -2.0 | +0.133 | Low | +1.35 |
| 2026-09-15 | Balance of Trade | 8.24 | 4.77 | +0.058 | Medium | +1.11 |
| 2026-09-04 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.8 | 3.0 | -0.149 | Low | -1.10 |
| 2026-07-31 | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.331 | Low | +1.08 |
| 2026-07-29 | Industrial Sales MoM | 0.6 | -0.7 | +0.287 | Low | +0.90 |
| 2026-08-04 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.1 | 1.4 | +0.247 | Low | +0.89 |
| 2026-07-30 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.270 | Low | -0.86 |
| 2026-08-28 | Business Confidence | 89.9 | 90.0 | -0.064 | Medium | -0.80 |
| 2026-07-31 | HICP YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.237 | Low | -0.78 |
| 2026-10-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.032 | Low | -0.63 |
| 2026-10-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 4.1 | -0.033 | Low | -0.63 |
| 2026-07-29 | Industrial Sales YoY | 5.3 | 2.7 | +0.188 | Low | +0.59 |
| 2026-08-12 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.088 | Low | -0.38 |
| 2026-08-28 | Industrial Sales YoY | 3.1 | 4.5 | -0.061 | Low | -0.38 |
| 2026-08-03 | New Car Sales YoY | 3.9 | 4.4 | -0.071 | Low | -0.25 |
| 2026-07-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 5.4 | -0.062 | Low | -0.20 |
| 2026-07-31 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.048 | Low | -0.16 |
| 2026-08-11 | Balance of Trade | 4.232 | 4.74 | -0.009 | Medium | -0.07 |
| 2026-07-31 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | HICP MoM | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.8 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.8 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | HICP YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | HICP MoM | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | Unemployment Rate | 5.8 | 5.8 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | CPI MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | HICP YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 4.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |