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Economic Surprises › Japan
Japan +7.6 ▬ vs 1w ago (+7.8)
Japan economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+7.6
1 Week Ago
+7.8
Releases (90d)
206
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nikkei 225 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (206 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-02-26 Retail Sales YoY 1.8 -0.4 +4.446 Medium +127.67
2026-02-08 Current Account 7288.0 1060.0 +6.305 Medium +119.46
2026-03-09 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.1 +1.313 High +72.91
2026-03-04 Consumer Confidence 40.0 38.2 +1.156 High +57.18
2026-03-17 Exports YoY 4.2 1.6 +1.265 Medium +56.37
2026-03-09 Household Spending MoM -2.5 0.8 -1.062 Medium -39.32
2026-03-08 Current Account 3.15 1010.0 -1.070 Medium -38.71
2026-02-18 Balance of Trade 0.46 -0.18 +1.507 Medium +35.97
2026-02-17 Balance of Trade 0.46 -0.18 +1.507 Medium +35.15
2026-02-17 Balance of Trade 0.46 -0.18 +1.507 Medium +35.15
2026-02-17 Balance of Trade 0.46 -0.18 +1.507 Medium +35.15
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.8 52.5 +2.737 Low +34.21
2026-03-17 Balance of Trade 57.3 -483.2 +0.474 High +31.67
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index MoM -0.1 0.1 +1.598 Low +30.28
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.3 +1.195 Medium +29.88
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.0 +1.188 Medium +29.69
2026-01-23 S&P Global Services PMI Flash 53.4 51.5 +2.235 Medium +29.26
2026-02-26 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.999 Low +28.70
2026-02-26 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.999 Low +28.70
2026-03-02 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.900 Medium -28.34
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 51.3 +2.257 Low +28.21
2026-02-25 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.999 Low +28.04
2026-01-29 Retail Sales YoY -0.9 0.7 -1.848 Medium -27.78
2026-02-19 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 51.3 +2.257 Low +27.57
2026-02-26 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.741 Low +25.00
2026-02-26 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.741 Low +25.00
2026-02-25 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.741 Low +24.43
2026-03-09 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.3 0.1 +1.304 Low +24.15
2026-03-09 CB Leading Index 112.4 113.0 -1.274 Low -23.58
2026-02-04 Services PMI 53.1 52.8 +2.670 Low +23.06
2026-03-08 CB Leading Index 112.4 113.0 -1.274 Low -23.04
2026-02-03 Services PMI 53.1 52.8 +2.670 Low +22.53
2026-02-03 Services PMI 53.1 52.8 +2.670 Low +22.53
2026-02-15 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.4 -0.666 High -22.25
2026-03-02 Capital Expenditure YoY 6.5 3.0 +0.652 Medium +20.54
2025-12-25 Housing Starts YoY -8.5 0.4 -2.864 Medium -19.18
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 52.8 52.0 +0.758 Medium +18.95
2026-03-09 Coincident Index 116.8 114.5 +0.990 Low +18.34
2026-02-16 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.2 1.6 -0.719 Medium -16.40
2026-02-15 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.2 1.6 -0.719 Medium -16.02
2026-02-15 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.2 1.6 -0.719 Medium -16.02
2026-02-15 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.2 1.6 -0.719 Medium -16.02
2026-03-08 Overtime Pay YoY 3.3 1.0 +0.853 Low +15.43
2026-01-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 51.5 50.3 +1.175 Medium +15.38
2026-02-18 Machinery Orders YoY 16.8 3.9 +0.610 Medium +14.57
2026-03-04 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +14.41
2026-03-04 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +14.41
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 53.8 52.5 +1.145 Low +14.32
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI Flash 53.8 53.3 +0.568 Medium +14.21
2026-01-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 50.1 +2.157 Low +14.12
2026-03-03 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +14.08
2026-01-09 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.7 0.5 -2.920 Low -13.83
2026-02-18 Machinery Orders MoM 19.1 4.5 +0.577 Medium +13.77
2026-01-21 Balance of Trade -0.21 -0.06 -1.059 Medium -13.24
2026-02-15 GDP Growth Annualized 0.2 1.6 -0.582 Medium -12.97
2026-02-17 Imports YoY -2.5 3.0 -1.082 Low -12.62
2026-02-03 S&P Global Services PMI 53.7 53.4 +0.716 Medium +12.08
2026-02-05 Household Spending YoY -2.6 -0.5 -0.667 Medium -11.79
2026-01-23 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 52.8 50.9 +1.727 Low +11.30
2026-02-19 Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 0.3 +0.852 Low +10.41
2026-03-02 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.19 -0.654 Low -10.29
2026-02-19 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.9 +0.275 High +10.09
2026-01-21 Balance of Trade 105.7 -400.0 +0.536 High +10.05
2026-01-07 S&P Global Services PMI 51.6 52.5 -2.184 Low -9.88
2026-03-18 Reuters Tankan Index 18.0 12.0 +0.404 Low +9.21
2026-03-09 Leading Economic Index 112.4 113.2 -0.494 Low -9.15
2026-01-26 CB Leading Index 109.9 110.5 -1.302 Low -9.14
2026-01-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.8 +0.692 Medium +8.85
2026-02-26 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.608 Low -8.73
2026-02-26 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.608 Low -8.73
2026-02-25 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.608 Low -8.53
2026-03-09 Household Spending YoY -1.0 2.5 -0.222 Medium -8.23
2026-02-06 CB Leading Index 110.2 109.8 +0.874 Low +7.90
2026-03-19 Industrial Production MoM 4.3 2.2 +0.338 Low +7.88
2026-02-05 CB Leading Index 110.2 109.8 +0.874 Low +7.72
2026-01-23 Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI 51.5 50.1 +1.172 Low +7.67
2026-03-17 Balance of Trade -0.37 -0.62 +0.171 Medium +7.61
2026-02-16 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.0 0.1 -0.656 Low -7.48
2026-02-15 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.0 0.1 -0.656 Low -7.31
2026-02-15 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.0 0.1 -0.656 Low -7.31
2026-02-26 Leading Economic Index 111.0 110.2 +0.508 Low +7.29
2026-02-17 Exports YoY 16.8 12.0 +0.312 Medium +7.27
2026-02-15 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ 1.3 156013.0 -0.647 Low -7.21
2026-03-19 Industrial Production YoY 0.7 2.3 -0.309 Low -7.21
2026-01-30 Construction Orders YoY 20.2 -3.0 +0.900 Low +6.93
2026-02-17 Balance of Trade -1152.7 -2142.1 +0.196 High +6.85
2026-01-08 Household Spending YoY 2.9 -0.9 +0.671 Medium +6.21
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.7 53.4 +0.716 Low +6.18
2026-03-17 Tertiary Industry Index MoM 1.7 0.8 +0.270 Low +6.02
2026-02-26 Industrial Production MoM 2.2 5.3 -0.207 Medium -5.94
2026-02-26 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 1.2 +0.408 Low +5.85
2026-02-05 Household Spending MoM -2.9 -1.3 -0.317 Medium -5.60
2026-01-22 Inflation Rate YoY 2.1 2.7 +0.291 High +5.57
2026-02-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.1 52.8 +0.628 Low +5.42
2026-01-08 Consumer Confidence 37.2 37.8 -0.389 High -5.41
2026-01-29 Jobs/applications ratio 1.19 1.18 +0.659 Low +4.96
2026-01-22 Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 0.2 +0.767 Low +4.90
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.0 52.8 +0.292 Low +4.60
2026-01-26 Leading Index MoM 0.1 0.7 -0.642 Low -4.51
2026-02-11 Machine Tool Orders YoY 25.3 9.5 +0.441 Low +4.48
2026-02-19 Reuters Tankan Index 13.0 9.0 +0.359 Low +4.39
2026-02-18 Reuters Tankan Index 13.0 9.0 +0.359 Low +4.29
2026-01-19 Capacity Utilization -5.3 0.8 -0.718 Low -4.28
2026-02-17 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.5 -0.2 -0.361 Low -4.21
2026-01-29 Industrial Production MoM -0.1 -0.4 +0.265 Medium +3.99
2026-01-07 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.1 51.5 -0.858 Low -3.88
2025-12-25 Industrial Production YoY -2.1 1.4 -1.112 Low -3.72
2026-01-26 Coincident Indicator MoM -1.0 -0.7 -0.521 Low -3.66
2026-01-18 Machinery Orders MoM -11.0 -4.0 -0.311 Medium -3.63
2026-03-19 Capacity Utilization 2.9 1.1 +0.154 Low +3.59
2026-03-18 Machinery Orders MoM -5.5 -9.6 +0.076 Medium +3.46
2026-02-26 Retail Sales MoM 4.1 1.5 +0.238 Low +3.42
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.205 Low +3.39
2026-01-18 Machinery Orders YoY -6.4 13.2 -0.274 Medium -3.20
2026-01-08 Household Spending MoM 6.2 2.7 +0.334 Medium +3.09
2026-02-06 Coincident Index 114.5 115.3 -0.342 Low -3.09
2026-02-27 Housing Starts YoY -0.4 -1.6 +0.097 Medium +2.84
2026-01-07 Jibun Bank Services PMI 51.6 52.5 -0.309 Medium -2.79
2026-01-26 Leading Economic Index 109.9 110.5 -0.380 Low -2.66
2026-03-18 Machinery Orders YoY 13.7 10.5 +0.056 Medium +2.56
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.9 48.0 +0.135 Low +2.49
2026-01-19 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.2 0.3 -0.401 Low -2.39
2026-03-09 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.0 2.5 +0.126 Low +2.33
2026-02-06 Leading Economic Index 110.2 109.8 +0.255 Low +2.31
2026-01-07 Average Cash Earnings YoY 0.5 2.3 -0.493 Low -2.23
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index YoY 2.0 2.1 +0.117 Low +2.23
2026-03-09 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ 1.3 1.1 +0.118 Low +2.18
2026-01-09 Leading Index MoM 0.7 1.8 -0.458 Low -2.17
2026-02-09 Eco Watchers Survey Current 47.6 49.1 -0.219 Low -2.13
2026-03-09 GDP Growth Annualized 1.3 1.2 +0.055 Medium +2.05
2026-01-05 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.7 +0.466 Low +2.01
2026-01-09 Coincident Index 115.2 116.2 -0.424 Low -2.01
2026-02-26 Core CPI YoY 1.8 1.7 -0.136 Low -1.95
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.9 48.2 +0.104 Low +1.93
2026-02-04 Jibun Bank Services PMI 53.7 53.4 +0.101 Medium +1.75
2026-01-21 Imports YoY 5.3 3.6 +0.279 Low +1.74
2026-03-08 Bank Lending YoY 4.5 4.4 +0.095 Low +1.72
2026-02-19 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 2.6 2.8 +0.133 Low +1.62
2026-01-21 Exports YoY 5.1 6.1 -0.128 Medium -1.60
2026-01-29 Core CPI YoY 2.0 2.2 +0.210 Low +1.58
2026-01-14 Reuters Tankan Index 7.0 11.0 -0.294 Low -1.56
2026-01-12 Bank Lending YoY 4.4 4.1 +0.306 Low +1.55
2026-02-08 Overtime Pay YoY 0.9 1.6 -0.162 Low -1.54
2026-03-17 Imports YoY 10.2 11.5 -0.067 Low -1.49
2026-01-29 Consumer Confidence 37.9 38.0 -0.065 High -1.46
2025-12-24 CB Leading Index 109.8 110.0 -0.436 Low -1.43
2026-01-30 Housing Starts YoY -1.3 -4.1 +0.088 Medium +1.35
2026-03-03 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.081 Low -1.30
2026-03-02 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.081 Low -1.27
2026-03-02 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.081 Low -1.27
2026-02-26 Coincident Index 114.3 114.5 -0.086 Low -1.24
2026-03-11 BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ 3.8 5.5 -0.062 Low -1.20
2026-02-08 Average Cash Earnings YoY 2.4 3.0 -0.126 Low -1.19
2026-01-05 Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.7 +0.253 Low +1.09
2026-01-09 CB Leading Index 110.5 110.4 +0.217 Low +1.03
2026-01-05 Monetary Base YoY -9.8 -8.0 -0.222 Low -0.96
2026-02-27 Construction Orders YoY 5.7 12.0 -0.061 Low -0.90
2026-03-09 Current Account 941.6 960.0 -0.021 Medium -0.76
2025-12-25 Industrial Production MoM -2.6 -2.0 -0.106 Medium -0.71
2025-12-24 Coincident Index 115.9 115.4 +0.214 Low +0.70
2026-02-26 CPI 1.8 1.9 +0.048 Low +0.69
2026-02-02 Monetary Base YoY -9.5 -10.3 +0.077 Low +0.63
2026-02-02 Monetary Base YoY -9.5 -10.3 +0.077 Low +0.63
2026-02-02 Monetary Base YoY -9.5 -10.3 +0.077 Low +0.63
2025-12-25 CPI 2.0 2.5 +0.184 Low +0.62
2025-12-25 Core CPI YoY 2.3 2.5 +0.185 Low +0.62
2026-02-16 Capacity Utilization 1.3 3.0 -0.053 Low -0.61
2025-12-25 Retail Sales YoY 1.0 0.9 +0.090 Medium +0.60
2025-12-25 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 0.3 +0.137 Low +0.46
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 50.0 50.4 -0.025 Low -0.46
2025-12-24 Leading Economic Index 109.8 110.0 -0.127 Low -0.42
2026-01-22 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 2.9 2.8 -0.066 Low -0.42
2026-01-14 Machine Tool Orders YoY 10.6 14.2 -0.067 Low -0.36
2026-01-09 Leading Economic Index 110.5 110.4 +0.063 Low +0.30
2026-01-07 Overtime Pay YoY 1.2 1.4 -0.053 Low -0.24
2026-01-12 Current Account 3674.0 3594.0 +0.024 Medium +0.24
2026-03-10 Machine Tool Orders YoY 24.2 25.3 -0.012 Low -0.22
2026-01-13 Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.6 48.8 -0.029 Low -0.15
2026-01-19 Industrial Production YoY -2.2 -2.1 -0.021 Low -0.13
2026-02-09 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 50.1 50.3 -0.013 Low -0.12
2025-12-25 Construction Orders YoY 9.5 12.0 -0.024 Low -0.08
2026-01-19 Industrial Production MoM -2.7 -2.6 -0.014 Low -0.08
2025-12-25 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.18 +0.000 Low +0.00
2025-12-25 Unemployment Rate 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-01-13 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 50.5 50.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-14 Producer Price Index MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-14 Producer Price Index YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-23 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75 0.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-01-29 Unemployment Rate 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-02 Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-08 Bank Lending YoY 4.5 4.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-11 Producer Price Index YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-11 Producer Price Index MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-12 Producer Price Index MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-12 Producer Price Index YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-15 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-15 GDP Price Index YoY 3.4 3.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-16 Industrial Production YoY 2.6 2.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-16 Industrial Production MoM -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-03-03 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-09 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-09 GDP Price Index YoY 3.4 3.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-19 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75 0.75 +0.000 High +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms