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Economic Surprises › Japan
Japan +1.8 ▬ vs 1w ago (+1.7)
Japan economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.8
1 Week Ago
+1.7
Releases (90d)
170
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nikkei 225 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (170 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-08-31 Capital Expenditure YoY 1.6 0.2 +3.512 Medium +136.18
2026-08-21 S&P Global Services PMI 52.3 51.5 +1.468 Medium +45.18
2026-08-09 Current Account -923.0 1512.0 -1.744 Medium -40.69
2026-08-16 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ -1.2 0.4 -2.554 Low -35.02
2026-08-27 Unemployment Rate 2.4 2.5 +0.939 Medium +33.18
2026-08-20 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.1 -1.558 Low -23.43
2026-07-21 Balance of Trade -406.9 -120.0 -0.960 High -21.66
2026-08-25 Coincident Indicator MoM 0.6 0.3 +1.223 Low +20.65
2026-09-01 Consumer Confidence 35.5 35.0 +0.344 High +20.51
2026-09-07 Coincident Index 120.6 118.8 +0.758 Low +17.28
2026-08-17 Capacity Utilization 4.1 0.3 +1.212 Low +17.01
2026-08-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.4 52.8 +1.098 Low +16.89
2026-08-30 Industrial Production MoM 0.1 -0.6 +0.420 Medium +15.93
2026-08-06 Household Spending YoY -3.3 1.0 -0.695 Medium -15.13
2026-08-16 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.5 -0.361 High -14.87
2026-06-30 Tankan Large All Industry Capex 11.5 1.0 +2.974 Low +13.77
2026-07-30 Consumer Confidence 34.9 34.2 +0.494 High +13.71
2026-07-30 Retail Sales YoY 0.5 3.1 -0.685 Medium -12.68
2026-08-27 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.19 -0.666 Low -11.77
2026-08-16 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 2.0 -0.402 Medium -11.02
2026-08-19 Adjusted Trade Balance -0.69 -0.44 -0.359 Medium -10.56
2026-08-30 Retail Sales YoY 4.0 3.0 +0.272 Medium +10.31
2026-06-16 Machinery Orders MoM 8.7 0.9 +1.526 Medium +10.22
2026-09-10 BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ 7.6 2.5 +0.417 Low +10.18
2026-08-16 GDP External Demand QoQ 0.5 0.3 +0.712 Low +9.76
2026-07-30 Retail Sales MoM -4.1 -0.5 -1.013 Low -9.38
2026-08-16 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.0 0.5 -0.663 Low -9.09
2026-09-07 CB Leading Index 117.9 118.1 -0.394 Low -8.98
2026-09-03 Household Spending MoM 0.5 2.6 -0.212 Medium -8.82
2026-06-30 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 22.0 16.0 +0.621 High +8.63
2026-09-07 GDP Growth Annualized 1.4 1.1 +0.185 Medium +8.43
2026-09-03 Household Spending YoY -3.6 -1.6 -0.202 Medium -8.40
2026-08-12 Producer Price Index MoM 0.1 0.6 +0.670 Low +8.37
2026-08-16 GDP Growth Annualized 1.1 2.0 -0.305 Medium -8.37
2026-08-31 Construction Orders YoY -13.4 5.0 -0.432 Low -8.37
2026-09-08 Reuters Tankan Index 21.0 15.0 +0.336 Low +7.83
2026-09-03 S&P Global Services PMI 52.5 52.3 +0.361 Low +7.51
2026-08-20 Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 1.7 -0.159 High -7.15
2026-08-27 CPI YoY 1.9 2.0 +0.392 Low +6.92
2026-06-30 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index 9.0 4.0 +1.490 Low +6.90
2026-08-16 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.5 0.3 +0.484 Low +6.63
2026-07-30 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.17 +0.677 Low +6.27
2026-08-06 Household Spending MoM -6.4 -3.1 -0.280 Medium -6.09
2026-07-30 Industrial Production MoM 1.3 0.7 +0.309 Medium +5.72
2026-07-30 Industrial Production YoY 4.2 1.8 +0.606 Low +5.61
2026-07-21 Adjusted Trade Balance -0.88 -0.56 -0.361 Medium -5.43
2026-07-30 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 1.7 -0.584 Low -5.40
2026-07-27 CB Leading Index 116.5 116.8 -0.597 Low -5.16
2026-08-27 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 1.7 -0.292 Low -5.16
2026-06-28 Retail Sales YoY 5.3 3.2 +0.536 Medium +4.74
2026-07-06 Household Spending MoM 3.7 1.4 +0.432 Medium +4.59
2026-06-30 Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook 17.0 13.0 +0.986 Low +4.56
2026-07-14 Machinery Orders MoM -12.4 -4.2 -0.344 Medium -4.40
2026-08-19 Exports YoY 23.2 19.9 +0.131 Medium +3.85
2026-09-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.5 53.4 +0.181 Low +3.76
2026-06-29 Industrial Production YoY -1.7 2.2 -0.805 Low -3.64
2026-09-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.9 55.1 -0.182 Low -3.62
2026-09-08 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 48.3 46.1 +0.155 Low +3.61
2026-09-01 Monetary Base YoY -15.7 -13.5 -0.176 Low -3.49
2026-08-07 Coincident Indicator MoM 0.3 0.4 -0.306 Low -3.41
2026-08-20 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 1.9 1.7 -0.225 Low -3.39
2026-08-25 CB Leading Index 116.5 116.4 +0.200 Low +3.37
2026-09-09 Machine Tool Orders YoY 64.7 43.0 +0.139 Low +3.32
2026-08-30 Industrial Production YoY 4.1 3.0 +0.167 Low +3.16
2026-06-29 Jobs/applications ratio 1.17 1.18 -0.671 Low -3.04
2026-08-18 Machinery Orders YoY 16.9 10.8 +0.106 Medium +3.04
2026-09-07 Average Cash Earnings YoY 4.7 3.9 +0.133 Low +3.02
2026-08-11 Reuters Tankan Index 18.0 14.0 +0.240 Low +2.93
2026-08-16 GDP Price Index YoY 2.6 2.4 -0.211 Low -2.90
2026-07-15 Tertiary Industry Index MoM 1.1 0.4 +0.428 Low +2.80
2026-07-14 Machinery Orders YoY -1.9 12.9 -0.215 Medium -2.75
2026-08-17 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.2 -1.0 +0.196 Low +2.74
2026-07-27 Leading Index MoM 0.4 0.7 -0.316 Low -2.73
2026-08-09 Bank Lending YoY 5.4 5.7 -0.225 Low -2.62
2026-07-30 Core CPI YoY 1.9 1.7 -0.280 Low -2.60
2026-08-10 Eco Watchers Survey Current 45.7 44.4 +0.214 Low +2.56
2026-08-27 Core CPI YoY 1.8 1.7 -0.140 Low -2.48
2026-06-16 Adjusted Trade Balance -0.09 -0.21 +0.361 Medium +2.42
2026-08-17 Industrial Production MoM 1.9 1.3 +0.166 Low +2.33
2026-07-23 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 1.7 2.0 +0.287 Low +2.26
2026-08-07 CB Leading Index 116.4 116.5 -0.200 Low -2.22
2026-07-27 Coincident Index 117.9 118.5 -0.253 Low -2.19
2026-08-25 Coincident Index 118.5 118.2 +0.127 Low +2.14
2026-09-07 Current Account 2989.0 2870.0 +0.045 Medium +2.05
2026-07-23 Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.2 -0.260 Low -2.04
2026-07-01 Consumer Confidence 33.8 34.0 -0.142 High -2.02
2026-09-07 Overtime Pay YoY 3.1 3.9 -0.084 Low -1.92
2026-07-01 Monetary Base YoY -13.7 -10.0 -0.399 Low -1.89
2026-07-14 Industrial Production MoM 0.1 0.5 -0.288 Low -1.84
2026-09-07 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ -0.9 -0.8 -0.080 Low -1.82
2026-06-29 Industrial Production MoM 0.5 1.1 -0.197 Medium -1.78
2026-09-07 Bank Lending YoY 5.4 5.5 -0.078 Low -1.77
2026-06-25 CB Leading Index 116.1 115.9 +0.401 Low +1.65
2026-09-10 Producer Price Index YoY 7.6 7.4 -0.068 Low -1.65
2026-07-08 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 45.7 42.0 +0.286 Low +1.59
2026-07-27 Leading Economic Index 116.5 116.8 -0.183 Low -1.58
2026-07-09 Producer Price Index MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.268 Low -1.53
2026-07-31 Construction Orders YoY 2.3 -7.0 +0.156 Low +1.48
2026-07-06 Household Spending YoY -0.4 -2.5 +0.136 Medium +1.44
2026-06-16 Balance of Trade -378.7 -564.6 +0.132 High +1.33
2026-06-15 Tertiary Industry Index MoM 1.3 0.5 +0.391 Low +1.28
2026-06-16 Reuters Tankan Index 13.0 9.0 +0.373 Low +1.25
2026-08-18 Machinery Orders MoM 9.7 7.8 +0.043 Medium +1.23
2026-06-25 Leading Index MoM 0.7 0.5 +0.295 Low +1.22
2026-08-19 Balance of Trade -634.5 -680.0 +0.027 High +1.18
2026-07-31 Housing Starts YoY 18.6 12.8 +0.059 Medium +1.13
2026-06-30 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index 37.0 35.0 +0.237 Low +1.10
2026-06-30 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 28.0 30.0 -0.234 Low -1.08
2026-07-07 CB Leading Index 116.8 116.9 -0.199 Low -1.08
2026-06-28 Retail Sales MoM 1.9 0.7 +0.241 Low +1.07
2026-08-17 Industrial Production YoY 4.9 4.2 +0.076 Low +1.06
2026-08-25 Leading Economic Index 116.5 116.4 +0.061 Low +1.04
2026-06-30 Construction Orders YoY -6.7 8.0 -0.215 Low -1.00
2026-07-21 Imports YoY 25.4 21.0 +0.126 Low +0.94
2026-06-25 Coincident Indicator MoM 1.3 1.1 +0.222 Low +0.92
2026-06-18 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.084 High +0.89
2026-06-16 Machinery Orders YoY 15.6 9.3 +0.127 Medium +0.85
2026-08-12 Producer Price Index YoY 7.2 7.4 +0.068 Low +0.84
2026-08-12 Machine Tool Orders YoY 50.4 42.0 +0.055 Low +0.69
2026-07-14 Industrial Production YoY -2.1 -1.7 -0.107 Low -0.68
2026-08-07 Leading Economic Index 116.4 116.5 -0.061 Low -0.68
2026-08-03 Monetary Base YoY -13.8 -13.0 -0.066 Low -0.67
2026-07-09 Machine Tool Orders YoY 52.8 37.4 +0.113 Low +0.65
2026-07-09 Producer Price Index YoY 7.1 6.8 -0.110 Low -0.63
2026-06-18 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.173 Low -0.61
2026-07-06 Overtime Pay YoY 2.9 4.0 -0.113 Low -0.60
2026-08-30 Retail Sales MoM 2.4 3.1 -0.032 Low -0.60
2026-07-08 Eco Watchers Survey Current 44.0 44.6 -0.098 Low -0.55
2026-07-14 Capacity Utilization 0.1 0.9 -0.085 Low -0.54
2026-06-25 Leading Economic Index 116.1 115.9 +0.123 Low +0.51
2026-07-21 Exports YoY 19.3 18.6 +0.030 Medium +0.45
2026-07-07 Current Account 3968.0 4121.3 -0.040 Medium -0.44
2026-08-19 Imports YoY 27.8 26.5 +0.029 Low +0.43
2026-08-04 Overtime Pay YoY 2.8 3.1 -0.040 Low -0.41
2026-07-07 Bank Lending YoY 5.7 5.8 -0.074 Low -0.40
2026-07-14 Reuters Tankan Index 13.0 14.0 -0.060 Low -0.38
2026-09-08 Eco Watchers Survey Current 46.4 46.3 +0.016 Low +0.37
2026-06-18 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 1.8 1.9 +0.101 Low +0.35
2026-06-25 Coincident Index 118.1 117.9 +0.085 Low +0.35
2026-07-07 Leading Economic Index 116.8 116.9 -0.061 Low -0.33
2026-06-16 Exports YoY 17.0 16.2 +0.039 Medium +0.26
2026-07-07 Coincident Index 118.5 118.4 +0.042 Low +0.23
2026-07-06 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.2 3.4 -0.038 Low -0.20
2026-08-31 Housing Starts YoY 8.2 7.9 +0.005 Medium +0.19
2026-08-10 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 45.8 46.0 -0.014 Low -0.17
2026-06-30 Housing Starts YoY 33.9 31.8 +0.009 Medium +0.08
2026-06-16 Imports YoY 12.5 12.8 -0.014 Low -0.05
2026-06-16 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 1.0 1.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-18 Core CPI YoY 1.4 1.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.4 1.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-25 CPI YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-25 Core CPI YoY 1.6 1.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-29 Unemployment Rate 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-07-23 Core CPI YoY 1.6 1.6 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-23 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.6 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-30 Unemployment Rate 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-30 CPI YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-31 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 1.0 1.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-08-04 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-08-07 Coincident Index 118.2 118.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-08-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 1.8 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-08-20 Core CPI YoY 1.8 1.8 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-08-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-27 Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-07 GDP Price Index YoY 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-07 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-09-07 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-09-07 GDP External Demand QoQ 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms