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Economic Surprises › Japan
Japan +3.2 ▬ vs 1w ago (+3.9)
Japan economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+3.2
1 Week Ago
+3.9
Releases (90d)
204
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nikkei 225 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (204 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-04-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.9 51.2 +3.311 Medium +88.71
2026-04-09 Consumer Confidence 33.3 38.0 -2.969 High -86.34
2026-04-14 Machinery Orders MoM 13.6 -1.1 +2.340 Medium +50.93
2026-05-12 Coincident Index 116.5 112.0 +1.981 Low +41.17
2026-05-14 Producer Price Index MoM 2.3 0.7 -1.818 Low -39.58
2026-04-23 S&P Global Services PMI 51.2 52.0 -1.456 Medium -39.00
2026-03-09 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 1.3 0.2 +3.711 Medium +35.15
2026-04-27 Leading Index MoM 1.3 0.3 +2.351 Low +34.55
2026-05-14 Producer Price Index YoY 4.9 3.0 -1.559 Low -33.93
2026-05-11 Household Spending MoM -1.3 0.6 -0.820 Medium -33.31
2026-02-26 Retail Sales YoY 1.8 -0.4 +4.448 Medium +32.68
2026-03-24 S&P Global Services PMI 52.8 51.5 +2.388 Medium +32.00
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 1.5 2.3 +1.981 Low +31.20
2026-04-30 Consumer Confidence 32.2 33.1 -0.653 High -30.83
2026-04-27 CB Leading Index 113.3 112.4 +1.928 Low +28.33
2026-04-29 Retail Sales YoY 1.7 0.8 +0.910 Medium +28.00
2026-04-27 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.901 Medium -26.48
2026-04-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.4 51.4 +1.913 Low +25.63
2026-03-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.4 52.8 -1.215 Medium -16.27
2026-05-18 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.5 0.4 +0.223 High +15.98
2026-04-29 Industrial Production MoM -0.5 1.1 -0.518 Medium -15.94
2026-03-30 Retail Sales YoY -0.2 0.8 -1.011 Medium -15.56
2026-03-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.5 51.3 +2.300 Low +15.41
2026-05-12 Bank Lending YoY 5.4 4.6 +0.732 Low +15.21
2026-03-17 Exports YoY 4.2 1.6 +1.270 Medium +14.47
2026-03-04 Consumer Confidence 40.0 38.2 +1.131 High +14.32
2026-03-30 Unemployment Rate 2.6 2.7 +0.868 Medium +13.35
2026-05-18 GDP External Demand QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.525 Low +12.52
2026-03-31 Construction Orders YoY 42.7 3.0 +1.543 Low +12.15
2026-05-19 Capacity Utilization -1.2 0.3 -0.476 Low -11.62
2026-03-09 Household Spending MoM -2.5 0.8 -1.068 Medium -10.12
2026-03-08 Current Account 3.15 1010.0 -1.076 Medium -9.96
2026-05-18 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.1 1.7 +0.202 Medium +9.64
2026-05-12 Current Account 4682.0 3879.0 +0.224 Medium +9.29
2026-04-03 S&P Global Services PMI 53.4 52.8 +1.075 Low +9.07
2026-04-23 CPI YoY 1.8 1.7 -0.335 Medium -8.98
2026-04-27 Leading Economic Index 113.3 112.4 +0.565 Low +8.31
2026-04-08 Eco Watchers Survey Current 42.2 48.0 -0.872 Low -8.26
2026-03-17 Balance of Trade 57.3 -483.2 +0.475 High +8.13
2026-05-18 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.337 Low +8.05
2026-05-11 Household Spending YoY -2.9 -1.3 -0.197 Medium -7.99
2026-04-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.0 52.5 +0.936 Low +7.90
2026-05-18 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.328 Low +7.83
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.8 52.5 +2.434 Low +7.79
2026-05-18 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.325 Low +7.76
2026-04-07 Coincident Index 116.3 118.3 -0.834 Low -7.72
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index MoM -0.1 0.1 +1.591 Low +7.71
2026-04-14 Machinery Orders YoY 24.7 8.5 +0.353 Medium +7.68
2026-05-18 GDP Growth Annualized 2.1 1.7 +0.157 Medium +7.51
2026-03-02 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.901 Medium -7.26
2026-05-08 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.2 52.4 -0.375 Low -7.11
2026-05-08 S&P Global Services PMI 51.0 51.2 -0.370 Low -7.00
2026-02-26 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.881 Low +6.91
2026-02-26 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.881 Low +6.91
2026-04-23 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.2 -0.512 Low -6.87
2026-02-25 Leading Index MoM 1.1 0.3 +1.881 Low +6.75
2026-03-23 Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 0.2 +1.025 Low +6.71
2026-04-21 Balance of Trade 667.0 1106.0 -0.169 High -6.47
2026-02-26 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.748 Low +6.42
2026-02-26 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.748 Low +6.42
2026-04-08 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 38.7 49.2 -0.678 Low -6.42
2026-05-13 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 39.4 36.0 +0.300 Low +6.38
2026-02-25 CB Leading Index 111.0 110.2 +1.748 Low +6.28
2026-03-09 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.3 0.1 +1.313 Low +6.22
2026-04-30 Core CPI YoY 1.5 1.8 +0.388 Low +6.11
2026-03-09 CB Leading Index 112.4 113.0 -1.279 Low -6.06
2026-03-08 CB Leading Index 112.4 113.0 -1.279 Low -5.92
2026-05-18 GDP Price Index YoY 3.4 3.1 -0.238 Low -5.69
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.3 +0.888 Medium +5.68
2026-04-08 Overtime Pay YoY 3.3 1.3 +0.599 Low +5.68
2026-04-07 Overtime Pay YoY 3.3 1.3 +0.599 Low +5.55
2026-03-03 Capital Expenditure YoY 6.5 3.0 +0.658 Medium +5.43
2026-03-02 Capital Expenditure YoY 6.5 3.0 +0.658 Medium +5.30
2026-03-30 Jobs/applications ratio 1.19 1.18 +0.665 Low +5.11
2026-04-15 Reuters Tankan Index 7.0 15.0 -0.438 Low -4.87
2026-04-15 Reuters Tankan Index 7.0 15.0 -0.438 Low -4.87
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 52.8 52.0 +0.758 Medium +4.85
2026-03-09 Coincident Index 116.8 114.5 +0.991 Low +4.69
2026-04-06 Household Spending YoY -1.8 -0.7 -0.251 Medium -4.54
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.0 +0.705 Medium +4.51
2026-03-25 CB Leading Index 112.1 112.4 -0.643 Low -4.41
2026-03-23 CPI YoY 1.6 1.7 +0.335 Medium +4.39
2026-05-12 CB Leading Index 114.5 114.4 +0.210 Low +4.37
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 51.3 +1.340 Low +4.28
2026-02-19 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 51.3 +1.340 Low +4.19
2026-03-08 Overtime Pay YoY 3.3 1.0 +0.896 Low +4.15
2026-04-21 Imports YoY 10.9 7.1 +0.317 Low +4.05
2026-03-23 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.7 +0.287 Medium +3.76
2026-03-03 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.901 Low -3.71
2026-04-09 Bank Lending YoY 4.8 4.4 +0.383 Low +3.71
2026-03-04 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +3.69
2026-03-04 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +3.69
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 53.8 52.5 +1.145 Low +3.66
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI Flash 53.8 53.3 +0.568 Medium +3.64
2026-05-15 Machine Tool Orders YoY 45.1 28.1 +0.163 Low +3.62
2026-03-03 Services PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.873 Low +3.60
2026-05-07 Overtime Pay YoY 1.9 3.5 -0.178 Low -3.30
2026-03-26 Coincident Index 117.9 116.8 +0.464 Low +3.26
2026-03-25 Coincident Index 117.9 116.8 +0.464 Low +3.18
2026-04-20 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.4 9.6 -0.252 Low -3.15
2026-03-25 Coincident Indicator MoM 3.4 2.5 +0.458 Low +3.14
2026-05-19 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.2 -0.4 +0.121 Low +2.96
2026-05-13 Eco Watchers Survey Current 40.8 41.6 -0.139 Low -2.95
2026-03-31 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index 36.0 33.0 +0.372 Low +2.93
2026-03-03 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.19 -0.659 Low -2.72
2026-05-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 55.1 54.9 +0.167 Low +2.69
2026-02-19 Inflation Rate MoM -0.2 0.3 +0.854 Low +2.67
2026-03-02 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.19 -0.659 Low -2.66
2026-04-30 Construction Orders YoY -14.4 33.0 -0.167 Low -2.64
2026-02-19 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.9 +0.277 High +2.60
2026-03-31 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 17.0 16.0 +0.103 High +2.43
2026-03-30 Industrial Production YoY 0.3 1.0 -0.314 Low -2.41
2026-03-18 Reuters Tankan Index 18.0 12.0 +0.410 Low +2.39
2026-03-09 Leading Economic Index 112.4 113.2 -0.499 Low -2.36
2026-02-26 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.636 Low -2.34
2026-02-26 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.636 Low -2.34
2026-04-27 Coincident Indicator MoM -1.8 -1.6 -0.159 Low -2.34
2026-02-25 Coincident Indicator MoM -0.6 -0.4 -0.636 Low -2.28
2026-04-07 Current Account 3933.0 3549.0 +0.117 Medium +2.16
2026-03-09 Household Spending YoY -1.0 2.5 -0.224 Medium -2.12
2026-04-29 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 3.3 -0.136 Low -2.09
2026-03-19 Industrial Production MoM 4.3 2.2 +0.340 Low +2.03
2026-03-30 CPI YoY 2.3 2.2 -0.259 Low -1.99
2026-04-09 Producer Price Index YoY 2.6 2.4 -0.205 Low -1.99
2026-04-06 Household Spending MoM 1.5 2.6 -0.110 Medium -1.98
2026-04-09 Machine Tool Orders YoY 28.1 16.0 +0.203 Low +1.97
2026-03-17 Balance of Trade -0.37 -0.62 +0.171 Medium +1.95
2026-03-31 Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook 14.0 13.0 +0.246 Low +1.93
2026-02-26 Leading Economic Index 111.0 110.2 +0.513 Low +1.88
2026-03-19 Industrial Production YoY 0.7 2.3 -0.312 Low -1.86
2026-05-07 Average Cash Earnings YoY 2.7 3.2 -0.099 Low -1.84
2026-03-31 Tankan Large All Industry Capex 3.3 13.0 -0.229 Low -1.80
2026-05-19 Industrial Production MoM -0.4 -0.5 +0.071 Low +1.74
2026-04-14 Industrial Production YoY 0.4 0.3 +0.149 Low +1.63
2026-03-17 Tertiary Industry Index MoM 1.7 0.8 +0.273 Low +1.55
2026-02-26 Industrial Production MoM 2.2 5.3 -0.208 Medium -1.53
2026-02-26 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 1.2 +0.411 Low +1.51
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.4 +0.178 Low +1.44
2026-05-06 Monetary Base YoY -11.3 -10.5 -0.077 Low -1.40
2026-02-26 CPI YoY 1.6 1.5 -0.380 Low -1.39
2026-04-29 Retail Sales MoM 1.3 0.8 +0.087 Low +1.33
2026-03-26 Leading Economic Index 112.1 112.4 -0.188 Low -1.32
2026-04-07 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.3 2.7 +0.141 Low +1.31
2026-03-30 Retail Sales MoM -2.0 -0.9 -0.170 Low -1.30
2026-03-25 Leading Economic Index 112.1 112.4 -0.188 Low -1.29
2026-05-12 Leading Economic Index 114.5 114.6 -0.062 Low -1.28
2026-04-21 Exports YoY 11.7 11.0 +0.050 Medium +1.27
2026-02-19 Reuters Tankan Index 13.0 9.0 +0.365 Low +1.14
2026-04-14 Capacity Utilization -0.1 1.0 -0.105 Low -1.14
2026-03-30 Core CPI YoY 1.7 1.8 +0.129 Low +1.00
2026-03-31 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 29.0 28.0 +0.124 Low +0.97
2026-03-19 Capacity Utilization 2.9 1.1 +0.156 Low +0.93
2026-03-25 Leading Index MoM 1.7 2.1 -0.134 Low -0.92
2026-02-26 Retail Sales MoM 4.1 1.5 +0.240 Low +0.88
2026-03-18 Machinery Orders MoM -5.5 -9.6 +0.075 Medium +0.87
2026-04-09 Producer Price Index MoM 0.8 0.9 +0.088 Low +0.86
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.8 +0.183 Low +0.77
2026-02-27 Housing Starts YoY -0.4 -1.6 +0.097 Medium +0.73
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.0 52.8 +0.174 Low +0.70
2026-03-18 Machinery Orders YoY 13.7 10.5 +0.056 Medium +0.66
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.9 48.0 +0.135 Low +0.64
2026-04-01 Monetary Base YoY -11.6 -10.8 -0.075 Low -0.61
2026-03-09 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.0 2.5 +0.127 Low +0.60
2026-04-07 Leading Economic Index 112.4 112.3 +0.063 Low +0.58
2026-03-10 Producer Price Index YoY 2.0 2.1 +0.117 Low +0.57
2026-03-09 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ 1.3 1.1 +0.118 Low +0.56
2026-03-09 GDP Growth Annualized 1.3 1.2 +0.056 Medium +0.53
2026-03-23 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 2.5 2.4 -0.078 Low -0.51
2026-02-26 Core CPI YoY 1.8 1.7 -0.137 Low -0.50
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Current 48.9 48.2 +0.105 Low +0.50
2026-05-19 Industrial Production YoY 2.4 2.3 +0.019 Low +0.48
2026-03-08 Bank Lending YoY 4.5 4.4 +0.096 Low +0.44
2026-02-19 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 2.6 2.8 +0.134 Low +0.42
2026-03-17 Imports YoY 10.2 11.5 -0.067 Low -0.38
2026-03-03 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.083 Low -0.34
2026-03-02 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.083 Low -0.33
2026-03-02 Monetary Base YoY -10.6 -9.8 -0.083 Low -0.33
2026-02-26 Coincident Index 114.3 114.5 -0.086 Low -0.32
2026-03-11 BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ 3.8 5.5 -0.062 Low -0.31
2026-02-27 Construction Orders YoY 5.7 12.0 -0.061 Low -0.23
2026-03-09 Current Account 941.6 960.0 -0.021 Medium -0.20
2026-02-26 CPI 1.8 1.9 +0.048 Low +0.18
2026-04-14 Industrial Production MoM -2.0 -2.1 +0.017 Low +0.18
2026-03-09 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 50.0 50.4 -0.025 Low -0.12
2026-04-30 Housing Starts YoY -29.3 -28.5 -0.004 Medium -0.11
2026-03-31 Housing Starts YoY -4.9 -4.7 -0.006 Medium -0.09
2026-03-10 Machine Tool Orders YoY 24.2 25.3 -0.012 Low -0.06
2026-02-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-03-03 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-09 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-09 GDP Price Index YoY 3.4 3.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-19 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75 0.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.3 1.3 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-03-30 Industrial Production MoM -2.1 -2.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-31 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index 7.0 7.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-07 CB Leading Index 112.4 112.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-23 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.8 1.8 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.5 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-04-23 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-27 Coincident Index 116.3 116.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-27 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.18 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-28 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75 0.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-20 Reuters Tankan Index 8.0 8.0 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms