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Japan Economic Surprise Index

-0.5 ▬ vs 1w ago (-1.1)

Japan economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.

Current Score

-0.5

1 Week Ago

-1.1

Releases (90d)

162

Top Beats

Top Misses

Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nikkei 225 Overlay

G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index

▲ Top Positive Surprises

S&P Global Services PMI +1.30z 2026-10-23 · 52.0 vs 51.3
Capital Expenditure YoY +3.51z 2026-08-31 · 1.6 vs 0.2
Producer Price Index MoM +1.28z 2026-10-12 · -0.3 vs 0.5
S&P Global Services PMI +1.30z 2026-10-05 · 52.3 vs 51.6
S&P Global Composite PMI +0.75z 2026-10-23 · 52.3 vs 51.9

▼ Top Negative Surprises

Balance of Trade -0.79z 2026-10-20 · -536.6 vs -181.0
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -1.07z 2026-10-23 · 53.3 vs 54.5
Adjusted Trade Balance -1.07z 2026-10-20 · -0.7 vs -0.26
Capacity Utilization -2.09z 2026-10-15 · -4.2 vs 0.2
Unemployment Rate -0.98z 2026-10-01 · 2.5 vs 2.4

All Releases — 90 Day Window (162 events)

Date	Event	Actual	Estimate	Surprise Z	Impact	Contribution
2026-10-23	S&P Global Services PMI	52.0	51.3	+1.303	Medium	+59.42
2026-10-20	Balance of Trade	-536.6	-181.0	-0.793	High	-50.57
2026-10-23	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	53.3	54.5	-1.075	Medium	-49.00
2026-08-31	Capital Expenditure YoY	1.6	0.2	+3.512	Medium	+47.05
2026-10-20	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.7	-0.26	-1.070	Medium	-45.51
2026-10-15	Capacity Utilization	-4.2	0.2	-2.086	Low	-39.52
2026-10-01	Unemployment Rate	2.5	2.4	-0.977	Medium	-26.80
2026-10-12	Producer Price Index MoM	-0.3	0.5	+1.280	Low	+22.62
2026-10-05	S&P Global Services PMI	52.3	51.6	+1.296	Low	+19.49
2026-10-23	S&P Global Composite PMI	52.3	51.9	+0.751	Low	+17.12
2026-08-09	Current Account	-923.0	1512.0	-1.749	Medium	-14.10
2026-08-16	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	-1.2	0.4	-2.554	Low	-12.10
2026-10-22	Inflation Rate MoM	0.0	0.4	+0.524	Low	+11.68
2026-08-27	Unemployment Rate	2.4	2.5	+0.938	Medium	+11.46
2026-09-14	Industrial Production MoM	-0.2	0.1	-1.081	Low	-10.01
2026-10-07	Current Account	4062.0	3194.6	+0.295	Medium	+9.29
2026-10-22	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	2.4	2.0	-0.386	Low	-8.61
2026-08-20	Inflation Rate MoM	0.4	0.1	-1.573	Low	-8.17
2026-10-22	Inflation Rate YoY	2.1	2.3	+0.118	High	+7.88
2026-08-25	Coincident Indicator MoM	0.6	0.3	+1.273	Low	+7.42
2026-09-01	Consumer Confidence	35.5	35.0	+0.346	High	+7.11
2026-10-08	Household Spending MoM	0.1	0.5	-0.211	Medium	-6.80
2026-08-17	Capacity Utilization	4.1	0.3	+1.201	Low	+5.82
2026-10-20	Exports YoY	16.7	20.1	-0.135	Medium	-5.72
2026-09-17	Core Inflation Rate YoY	1.7	1.8	+0.277	Medium	+5.51
2026-08-30	Industrial Production MoM	0.1	-0.6	+0.420	Medium	+5.50
2026-08-06	Household Spending YoY	-3.3	1.0	-0.697	Medium	-5.24
2026-09-29	CB Leading Index	117.7	117.9	-0.398	Low	-5.21
2026-08-16	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	0.5	-0.361	High	-5.14
2026-10-14	Machinery Orders MoM	5.2	3.0	+0.130	Medium	+4.81
2026-07-30	Consumer Confidence	34.9	34.2	+0.495	High	+4.75
2026-09-30	Tankan Small Manufacturers Index	14.0	11.0	+0.329	Low	+4.41
2026-07-30	Retail Sales YoY	0.5	3.1	-0.687	Medium	-4.39
2026-08-27	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.19	-0.668	Low	-4.08
2026-09-29	Retail Sales YoY	2.7	3.3	-0.149	Medium	-3.90
2026-09-17	Inflation Rate YoY	1.9	2.1	+0.129	High	+3.85
2026-10-19	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	-0.1	-0.4	+0.185	Low	+3.84
2026-08-16	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.1	2.0	-0.402	Medium	-3.81
2026-10-06	Overtime Pay YoY	5.2	3.3	+0.241	Low	+3.70
2026-08-19	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.69	-0.44	-0.359	Medium	-3.65
2026-08-30	Retail Sales YoY	4.0	3.0	+0.273	Medium	+3.57
2026-09-10	BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ	7.6	2.5	+0.417	Low	+3.52
2026-08-16	GDP External Demand QoQ	0.5	0.3	+0.712	Low	+3.37
2026-07-30	Retail Sales MoM	-4.1	-0.5	-1.018	Low	-3.26
2026-08-16	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.0	0.5	-0.663	Low	-3.14
2026-10-05	Consumer Confidence	35.4	35.3	+0.069	High	+3.09
2026-09-03	Household Spending MoM	0.5	2.6	-0.213	Medium	-3.06
2026-08-31	Construction Orders YoY	-13.4	5.0	-0.434	Low	-2.91
2026-09-03	Household Spending YoY	-3.6	-1.6	-0.203	Medium	-2.91
2026-09-07	GDP Growth Annualized	1.4	1.1	+0.185	Medium	+2.91
2026-08-16	GDP Growth Annualized	1.1	2.0	-0.305	Medium	-2.89
2026-08-12	Producer Price Index MoM	0.1	0.6	+0.667	Low	+2.88
2026-10-15	Industrial Production MoM	-2.4	-1.7	-0.148	Low	-2.81
2026-10-12	Bank Lending YoY	5.3	5.5	-0.156	Low	-2.76
2026-09-08	Reuters Tankan Index	21.0	15.0	+0.338	Low	+2.72
2026-09-30	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	24.0	25.0	-0.067	High	-2.69
2026-09-17	Inflation Rate MoM	0.1	0.2	+0.262	Low	+2.60
2026-08-20	Inflation Rate YoY	1.9	1.7	-0.160	High	-2.49
2026-08-27	CPI YoY	1.9	2.0	+0.392	Low	+2.39
2026-08-16	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.5	0.3	+0.484	Low	+2.29
2026-07-30	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.17	+0.680	Low	+2.17
2026-08-06	Household Spending MoM	-6.4	-3.1	-0.281	Medium	-2.11
2026-07-30	Industrial Production MoM	1.3	0.7	+0.309	Medium	+1.98
2026-09-30	Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook	21.0	22.0	-0.147	Low	-1.97
2026-07-30	Industrial Production YoY	4.2	1.8	+0.607	Low	+1.94
2026-09-15	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.84	-1.0	+0.101	Medium	+1.92
2026-07-30	Core Inflation Rate YoY	1.9	1.7	-0.588	Low	-1.88
2026-08-27	Core Inflation Rate YoY	1.8	1.7	-0.294	Low	-1.79
2026-10-15	Industrial Production YoY	2.7	3.4	-0.094	Low	-1.78
2026-10-26	Coincident Indicator MoM	-1.8	-1.9	+0.067	Low	+1.64
2026-09-30	Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index	35.0	36.0	-0.116	Low	-1.56
2026-08-19	Exports YoY	23.2	19.9	+0.132	Medium	+1.34
2026-09-03	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.5	53.4	+0.183	Low	+1.31
2026-10-14	Machinery Orders YoY	18.6	15.7	+0.035	Medium	+1.29
2026-09-03	S&P Global Services PMI	53.5	53.4	+0.179	Low	+1.28
2026-09-08	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	48.3	46.1	+0.155	Low	+1.25
2026-08-07	Coincident Indicator MoM	0.3	0.4	-0.318	Low	-1.22
2026-09-01	Monetary Base YoY	-15.7	-13.5	-0.177	Low	-1.22
2026-09-14	Capacity Utilization	0.5	-1.3	+0.131	Low	+1.22
2026-09-01	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	54.9	55.1	-0.177	Low	-1.21
2026-08-20	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	1.9	1.7	-0.227	Low	-1.18
2026-08-25	CB Leading Index	116.5	116.4	+0.202	Low	+1.18
2026-09-29	Leading Index MoM	1.5	1.7	-0.090	Low	-1.17
2026-09-09	Machine Tool Orders YoY	64.7	43.0	+0.140	Low	+1.15
2026-09-30	Construction Orders YoY	-3.6	-12.0	+0.083	Low	+1.11
2026-08-30	Industrial Production YoY	4.1	3.0	+0.167	Low	+1.09
2026-09-15	Machinery Orders MoM	-3.7	-2.8	-0.057	Medium	-1.08
2026-08-18	Machinery Orders YoY	16.9	10.8	+0.107	Medium	+1.06
2026-09-07	Average Cash Earnings YoY	4.7	3.9	+0.133	Low	+1.05
2026-10-26	Coincident Index	118.8	118.7	+0.042	Low	+1.03
2026-08-11	Reuters Tankan Index	18.0	14.0	+0.241	Low	+1.02
2026-10-01	Monetary Base YoY	-15.2	-16.3	+0.073	Low	+1.01
2026-08-16	GDP Price Index YoY	2.6	2.4	-0.211	Low	-1.00
2026-08-17	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	-0.2	-1.0	+0.197	Low	+0.96
2026-09-15	Machinery Orders YoY	11.2	15.3	-0.051	Medium	-0.96
2026-08-09	Bank Lending YoY	5.4	5.7	-0.226	Low	-0.91
2026-09-15	Exports YoY	19.3	18.2	+0.048	Medium	+0.91
2026-07-30	Core CPI YoY	1.9	1.7	-0.280	Low	-0.90
2026-08-10	Eco Watchers Survey Current	45.7	44.4	+0.215	Low	+0.89
2026-08-27	Core CPI YoY	1.8	1.7	-0.140	Low	-0.86
2026-08-17	Industrial Production MoM	1.9	1.3	+0.166	Low	+0.81
2026-09-15	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	0.4	0.3	+0.082	Low	+0.78
2026-08-07	CB Leading Index	116.4	116.5	-0.201	Low	-0.77
2026-08-25	Coincident Index	118.5	118.2	+0.127	Low	+0.74
2026-10-08	Household Spending YoY	-3.1	-3.6	+0.023	Medium	+0.73
2026-09-07	Current Account	2989.0	2870.0	+0.045	Medium	+0.71
2026-09-07	Overtime Pay YoY	3.1	3.9	-0.086	Low	-0.68
2026-10-08	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	47.4	48.0	-0.041	Low	-0.66
2026-09-07	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	-0.9	-0.8	-0.080	Low	-0.63
2026-09-07	Bank Lending YoY	5.4	5.5	-0.078	Low	-0.61
2026-09-15	Balance of Trade	-1105.6	-1052.6	-0.020	High	-0.58
2026-09-10	Producer Price Index YoY	7.6	7.4	-0.068	Low	-0.57
2026-10-06	Reuters Tankan Index	22.0	23.0	-0.037	Low	-0.56
2026-07-31	Construction Orders YoY	2.3	-7.0	+0.157	Low	+0.51
2026-10-08	Eco Watchers Survey Current	47.0	46.8	+0.031	Low	+0.51
2026-10-20	Imports YoY	18.9	19.6	-0.022	Low	-0.46
2026-09-30	Housing Starts YoY	6.1	7.0	-0.017	Medium	-0.45
2026-08-18	Machinery Orders MoM	9.7	7.8	+0.043	Medium	+0.43
2026-08-19	Balance of Trade	-634.5	-680.0	+0.027	High	+0.41
2026-08-27	Inflation Rate YoY	1.9	2.0	+0.068	Low	+0.41
2026-07-31	Housing Starts YoY	18.6	12.8	+0.060	Medium	+0.39
2026-08-17	Industrial Production YoY	4.9	4.2	+0.076	Low	+0.37
2026-09-15	Imports YoY	28.0	26.3	+0.039	Low	+0.37
2026-09-29	Retail Sales MoM	-1.2	-1.0	-0.028	Low	-0.37
2026-08-25	Leading Economic Index	116.5	116.4	+0.061	Low	+0.36
2026-09-30	Tankan Large All Industry Capex	11.3	12.3	-0.023	Low	-0.31
2026-08-12	Producer Price Index YoY	7.2	7.4	+0.068	Low	+0.29
2026-10-06	Average Cash Earnings YoY	3.8	3.7	+0.018	Low	+0.27
2026-08-03	Monetary Base YoY	-13.8	-13.0	-0.067	Low	-0.24
2026-08-07	Leading Economic Index	116.4	116.5	-0.061	Low	-0.24
2026-08-12	Machine Tool Orders YoY	50.4	42.0	+0.055	Low	+0.24
2026-08-30	Retail Sales MoM	2.4	3.1	-0.032	Low	-0.21
2026-09-14	Industrial Production YoY	3.9	4.1	-0.022	Low	-0.21
2026-08-04	Overtime Pay YoY	2.8	3.1	-0.040	Low	-0.15
2026-08-19	Imports YoY	27.8	26.5	+0.030	Low	+0.15
2026-09-08	Eco Watchers Survey Current	46.4	46.3	+0.016	Low	+0.13
2026-08-31	Housing Starts YoY	8.2	7.9	+0.005	Medium	+0.07
2026-08-10	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	45.8	46.0	-0.014	Low	-0.06
2026-10-09	Machine Tool Orders YoY	60.4	61.0	-0.003	Low	-0.04
2026-07-30	CPI YoY	2.0	2.0	-0.000	Low	-0.00
2026-07-30	Inflation Rate YoY	2.0	2.0	-0.000	Low	-0.00
2026-07-30	Unemployment Rate	2.5	2.5	-0.000	Medium	-0.00
2026-07-31	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	1.0	1.0	+0.000	High	+0.00
2026-08-04	Average Cash Earnings YoY	3.4	3.4	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-08-07	Coincident Index	118.2	118.2	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-08-20	Core CPI YoY	1.8	1.8	-0.000	Medium	-0.00
2026-08-20	Core Inflation Rate YoY	1.8	1.8	-0.000	Medium	-0.00
2026-09-07	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.5	0.5	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-09-07	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.4	0.4	+0.000	Medium	+0.00
2026-09-07	GDP Price Index YoY	2.6	2.6	-0.000	Low	-0.00
2026-09-07	GDP External Demand QoQ	0.5	0.5	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-09-17	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	1.9	1.9	-0.000	Low	-0.00
2026-09-18	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	1.25	1.25	+0.000	High	+0.00
2026-09-29	Coincident Index	120.6	120.6	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-09-29	Coincident Indicator MoM	1.7	1.7	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-09-30	Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook	30.0	30.0	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-10-01	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	54.1	54.1	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-10-01	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.18	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-10-22	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2.1	2.1	-0.000	Medium	-0.00
2026-10-26	CB Leading Index	118.0	118.0	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-10-26	Leading Index MoM	0.4	0.4	+0.000	Low	+0.00
2026-10-26	Producer Price Index YoY	3.7	3.7	-0.000	Low	-0.00

Japan Economic Surprise Index

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