— Know what they know.
/
Not Investment Advice
Economic Surprises › Japan
Japan +2.9 ▼ vs 1w ago (+4.4)
Japan economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+2.9
1 Week Ago
+4.4
Releases (90d)
179
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Nikkei 225 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (179 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-24 S&P Global Services PMI 51.9 53.0 -1.609 Medium -73.34
2026-05-20 Balance of Trade 301.9 -29.7 +4.472 High +68.11
2026-07-21 Balance of Trade -406.9 -120.0 -0.958 High -61.09
2026-06-23 S&P Global Services PMI 51.8 50.3 +2.312 Medium +51.48
2026-06-30 Tankan Large All Industry Capex 11.5 1.0 +2.974 Low +38.93
2026-06-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.5 50.8 +2.808 Low +31.27
2026-06-16 Machinery Orders MoM 8.7 0.9 +1.521 Medium +28.82
2026-06-30 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 22.0 16.0 +0.621 High +24.40
2026-05-29 Consumer Confidence 33.6 32.0 +1.200 High +22.51
2026-06-05 CB Leading Index 115.9 114.4 +2.967 Low +21.80
2026-05-28 Unemployment Rate 2.5 2.7 +1.731 Medium +21.15
2026-06-30 Tankan Small Manufacturers Index 9.0 4.0 +1.490 Low +19.50
2026-07-21 Adjusted Trade Balance -0.88 -0.56 -0.352 Medium -14.96
2026-06-05 Coincident Indicator MoM 1.1 -1.7 +2.000 Low +14.70
2026-07-27 CB Leading Index 116.5 116.8 -0.581 Low -14.20
2026-06-28 Retail Sales YoY 5.3 3.2 +0.533 Medium +13.33
2026-06-30 Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook 17.0 13.0 +0.986 Low +12.90
2026-07-06 Household Spending MoM 3.7 1.4 +0.428 Medium +12.88
2026-05-20 Adjusted Trade Balance 0.24 -0.23 +1.258 Medium +12.77
2026-05-21 CPI YoY 1.4 1.7 +1.195 Medium +12.41
2026-07-14 Machinery Orders MoM -12.4 -4.2 -0.343 Medium -12.40
2026-05-21 S&P Global Services PMI 50.0 50.7 -1.070 Medium -11.12
2026-07-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.1 52.8 +0.477 Low +10.87
2026-06-29 Industrial Production YoY -1.7 2.2 -0.800 Low -10.23
2026-06-07 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.5 0.3 +0.597 Medium +9.19
2026-05-21 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.4 1.7 +0.868 Medium +9.02
2026-07-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.7 54.5 +0.190 Medium +8.66
2026-06-29 Jobs/applications ratio 1.17 1.18 -0.669 Low -8.55
2026-06-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.9 54.5 +0.380 Medium +8.47
2026-05-12 Coincident Index 116.5 112.0 +2.000 Low +8.44
2026-07-03 S&P Global Services PMI 52.2 51.8 +0.599 Low +8.40
2026-05-28 Industrial Production MoM 0.8 -0.9 +0.677 Medium +8.26
2026-05-14 Producer Price Index MoM 2.3 0.7 -1.833 Low -8.10
2026-07-15 Tertiary Industry Index MoM 1.1 0.4 +0.426 Low +7.89
2026-07-14 Machinery Orders YoY -1.9 12.9 -0.215 Medium -7.76
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 1.5 2.3 +2.355 Low +7.53
2026-05-31 Capital Expenditure YoY 0.0 4.1 -0.567 Medium -7.42
2026-06-05 Leading Economic Index 115.9 114.3 +0.996 Low +7.32
2026-05-29 Construction Orders YoY -32.3 3.6 -1.160 Low -7.25
2026-05-14 Producer Price Index YoY 4.9 3.0 -1.571 Low -6.94
2026-05-11 Household Spending MoM -1.3 0.6 -0.826 Medium -6.81
2026-07-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.8 52.5 +0.479 Low +6.73
2026-06-16 Adjusted Trade Balance -0.09 -0.21 +0.352 Medium +6.66
2026-07-23 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 1.7 2.0 +0.286 Low +6.37
2026-04-30 Consumer Confidence 32.2 33.1 -0.653 High -6.26
2026-07-27 Coincident Index 117.9 118.5 -0.252 Low -6.16
2026-05-28 Retail Sales YoY 2.1 1.3 +0.500 Medium +6.11
2026-05-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.1 51.8 -1.134 Low -5.89
2026-07-23 Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.2 -0.261 Low -5.82
2026-05-26 CB Leading Index 114.0 114.5 -0.988 Low -5.76
2026-04-29 Retail Sales YoY 1.7 0.8 +0.914 Medium +5.71
2026-07-01 Consumer Confidence 33.8 34.0 -0.141 High -5.68
2026-06-05 Coincident Index 117.9 116.2 +0.728 Low +5.35
2026-07-01 Monetary Base YoY -13.7 -10.0 -0.388 Low -5.20
2026-07-14 Industrial Production MoM 0.1 0.5 -0.287 Low -5.18
2026-06-09 Producer Price Index MoM 0.9 0.5 -0.642 Low -5.17
2026-06-29 Industrial Production MoM 0.5 1.1 -0.195 Medium -5.00
2026-05-20 Exports YoY 14.8 9.3 +0.466 Medium +4.73
2026-05-21 Inflation Rate YoY 1.4 1.8 +0.296 High +4.61
2026-06-25 CB Leading Index 116.1 115.9 +0.391 Low +4.55
2026-07-27 Leading Economic Index 116.5 116.8 -0.183 Low -4.46
2026-07-08 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 45.7 42.0 +0.283 Low +4.45
2026-06-25 CPI YoY 1.9 1.8 -0.376 Low -4.39
2026-07-09 Producer Price Index MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.267 Low -4.31
2026-06-07 Current Account 3907.0 3137.0 +0.267 Medium +4.10
2026-07-06 Household Spending YoY -0.4 -2.5 +0.135 Medium +4.06
2026-06-07 GDP Growth Annualized 1.8 1.3 +0.259 Medium +3.98
2026-06-16 Balance of Trade -378.7 -564.6 +0.132 High +3.75
2026-06-04 Household Spending MoM 1.6 0.8 +0.261 Medium +3.74
2026-06-15 Tertiary Industry Index MoM 1.3 0.5 +0.390 Low +3.61
2026-06-16 Reuters Tankan Index 13.0 9.0 +0.369 Low +3.49
2026-06-25 Leading Index MoM 0.7 0.5 +0.292 Low +3.41
2026-04-29 Industrial Production MoM -0.5 1.1 -0.521 Medium -3.26
2026-05-18 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.5 0.4 +0.224 High +3.26
2026-06-08 Eco Watchers Survey Current 43.6 41.3 +0.405 Low +3.19
2026-05-12 Bank Lending YoY 5.4 4.6 +0.738 Low +3.11
2026-06-30 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index 37.0 35.0 +0.237 Low +3.10
2026-05-28 Retail Sales MoM 1.3 -0.5 +0.504 Low +3.08
2026-06-30 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 28.0 30.0 -0.234 Low -3.06
2026-06-28 Retail Sales MoM 1.9 0.7 +0.240 Low +3.00
2026-07-07 CB Leading Index 116.8 116.9 -0.194 Low -2.98
2026-06-09 Producer Price Index YoY 6.3 5.5 -0.361 Low -2.91
2026-06-30 Construction Orders YoY -6.7 8.0 -0.214 Low -2.80
2026-07-21 Imports YoY 25.4 21.0 +0.125 Low +2.66
2026-06-25 Coincident Indicator MoM 1.3 1.1 +0.221 Low +2.58
2026-05-18 GDP External Demand QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.529 Low +2.56
2026-06-18 Inflation Rate YoY 1.5 1.6 +0.083 High +2.48
2026-06-16 Machinery Orders YoY 15.6 9.3 +0.127 Medium +2.40
2026-05-19 Capacity Utilization -1.2 0.3 -0.481 Low -2.39
2026-06-10 BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ -1.8 4.2 -0.289 Low -2.38
2026-05-26 Coincident Indicator MoM 0.2 0.3 -0.405 Low -2.36
2026-05-21 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.5 +0.418 Low +2.17
2026-05-21 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 1.9 2.4 +0.397 Low +2.06
2026-06-01 Monetary Base YoY -12.2 -9.5 -0.298 Low -2.00
2026-05-18 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.1 1.7 +0.202 Medium +1.96
2026-05-28 Core CPI YoY 1.3 1.5 +0.314 Low +1.92
2026-07-14 Industrial Production YoY -2.1 -1.7 -0.106 Low -1.92
2026-05-12 Current Account 4682.0 3879.0 +0.225 Medium +1.90
2026-05-26 Leading Economic Index 114.0 114.5 -0.311 Low -1.81
2026-07-09 Machine Tool Orders YoY 52.8 37.4 +0.112 Low +1.80
2026-07-09 Producer Price Index YoY 7.1 6.8 -0.109 Low -1.76
2026-06-18 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.174 Low -1.73
2026-05-18 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.346 Low +1.68
2026-07-06 Overtime Pay YoY 2.9 4.0 -0.110 Low -1.66
2026-05-26 Leading Index MoM 0.8 1.3 -0.281 Low -1.64
2026-05-11 Household Spending YoY -2.9 -1.3 -0.198 Medium -1.63
2026-05-18 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.330 Low +1.60
2026-05-18 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.327 Low +1.58
2026-07-14 Capacity Utilization 0.1 0.9 -0.085 Low -1.55
2026-06-04 Household Spending YoY -0.5 -1.5 +0.107 Medium +1.54
2026-07-08 Eco Watchers Survey Current 44.0 44.6 -0.098 Low -1.54
2026-05-18 GDP Growth Annualized 2.1 1.7 +0.158 Medium +1.53
2026-06-07 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 1.8 2.1 -0.099 Medium -1.52
2026-05-28 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 1.5 +0.241 Low +1.47
2026-06-25 Leading Economic Index 116.1 115.9 +0.123 Low +1.43
2026-05-13 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 39.4 36.0 +0.303 Low +1.31
2026-07-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.8 54.9 -0.094 Low -1.26
2026-07-21 Exports YoY 19.3 18.6 +0.030 Medium +1.26
2026-04-30 Core CPI YoY 1.5 1.8 +0.392 Low +1.25
2026-07-07 Current Account 3968.0 4121.3 -0.040 Medium -1.24
2026-05-08 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.2 52.4 -0.320 Low -1.23
2026-05-18 GDP Price Index YoY 3.4 3.1 -0.241 Low -1.17
2026-05-08 S&P Global Services PMI 51.0 51.2 -0.303 Low -1.16
2026-06-12 Capacity Utilization -0.8 2.0 -0.135 Low -1.16
2026-06-12 Industrial Production MoM 0.5 0.8 -0.134 Low -1.16
2026-06-07 GDP Price Index YoY 3.2 3.4 +0.146 Low +1.13
2026-07-07 Bank Lending YoY 5.7 5.8 -0.073 Low -1.13
2026-06-07 GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ -0.7 -0.9 +0.145 Low +1.12
2026-07-14 Reuters Tankan Index 13.0 14.0 -0.059 Low -1.07
2026-06-18 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY 1.8 1.9 +0.100 Low +1.00
2026-06-25 Coincident Index 118.1 117.9 +0.084 Low +0.98
2026-07-07 Leading Economic Index 116.8 116.9 -0.061 Low -0.94
2026-06-04 Overtime Pay YoY 4.2 3.2 +0.125 Low +0.90
2026-05-12 CB Leading Index 114.5 114.4 +0.198 Low +0.83
2026-05-15 Machine Tool Orders YoY 45.1 28.1 +0.165 Low +0.74
2026-06-16 Exports YoY 17.0 16.2 +0.039 Medium +0.74
2026-05-07 Overtime Pay YoY 1.9 3.5 -0.183 Low -0.69
2026-07-07 Coincident Index 118.5 118.4 +0.042 Low +0.65
2026-05-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 55.1 54.9 +0.189 Low +0.62
2026-05-13 Eco Watchers Survey Current 40.8 41.6 -0.140 Low -0.60
2026-05-19 Tertiary Industry Index MoM -0.2 -0.4 +0.122 Low +0.60
2026-05-20 Machinery Orders YoY 5.9 4.5 +0.058 Medium +0.59
2026-06-07 Bank Lending YoY 5.7 5.6 +0.076 Low +0.58
2026-07-06 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.2 3.4 -0.038 Low -0.57
2026-04-30 Construction Orders YoY -14.4 33.0 -0.167 Low -0.53
2026-05-20 Imports YoY 9.7 8.3 +0.101 Low +0.51
2026-06-12 Industrial Production YoY 2.0 2.3 -0.059 Low -0.51
2026-06-08 Eco Watchers Survey Outlook 40.7 40.0 +0.056 Low +0.44
2026-04-29 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 3.3 -0.137 Low -0.43
2026-05-29 Housing Starts YoY 11.4 15.5 -0.034 Medium -0.43
2026-06-04 Average Cash Earnings YoY 3.5 3.2 +0.060 Low +0.43
2026-05-07 Average Cash Earnings YoY 2.7 3.2 -0.100 Low -0.38
2026-05-19 Industrial Production MoM -0.4 -0.5 +0.072 Low +0.36
2026-05-06 Monetary Base YoY -11.3 -10.5 -0.080 Low -0.29
2026-05-20 Machinery Orders MoM -9.4 -8.1 -0.028 Medium -0.29
2026-04-29 Retail Sales MoM 1.3 0.8 +0.088 Low +0.27
2026-05-12 Leading Economic Index 114.5 114.6 -0.062 Low -0.26
2026-05-26 Coincident Index 116.4 116.5 -0.043 Low -0.25
2026-06-30 Housing Starts YoY 33.9 31.8 +0.009 Medium +0.23
2026-06-16 Imports YoY 12.5 12.8 -0.014 Low -0.13
2026-05-19 Industrial Production YoY 2.4 2.3 +0.020 Low +0.10
2026-04-30 Housing Starts YoY -29.3 -28.5 -0.004 Medium -0.02
2026-06-09 Machine Tool Orders YoY 37.4 37.0 +0.003 Low +0.02
2026-05-20 Reuters Tankan Index 8.0 8.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-28 CPI YoY 1.6 1.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-28 Jobs/applications ratio 1.18 1.18 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.1 51.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 50.0 50.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-07 GDP Private Consumption QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-07 GDP External Demand QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-16 BoJ Interest Rate Decision 1.0 1.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.4 1.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-18 Core CPI YoY 1.4 1.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-25 Core CPI YoY 1.6 1.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-29 Unemployment Rate 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-23 Core Inflation Rate YoY 1.6 1.6 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-23 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 High -0.00

Sign in to InsiderStreet

You'll also get our free weekly newsletter with
smart money signals, market insights, and alpha ideas.
Unsubscribe anytime.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms