South Korea Economic Surprise Index
+1.5 ▲ vs 1w ago (+0.4)
South Korea economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.5
1 Week Ago
+0.4
Releases (90d)
65
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with KOSPI Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ +0.65z
- GDP Growth Rate YoY +0.52z
- Unemployment Rate +0.34z
- CPI MoM +2.74z
- Consumer Confidence +0.32z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -0.74z
- Business Confidence -0.76z
- Industrial Production MoM -1.28z
- Consumer Confidence -0.28z
- Industrial Production YoY -0.48z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (65 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.0 | 0.7 | +0.648 | Medium | +31.66 |
| 2026-10-26 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.0 | +0.517 | Medium | +25.28 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 54.9 | -0.743 | Medium | -20.37 |
| 2026-09-28 | Business Confidence | 79.0 | 84.0 | -0.759 | Medium | -19.43 |
| 2026-09-29 | Industrial Production MoM | -4.8 | 0.5 | -1.276 | Low | -16.70 |
| 2026-10-26 | Consumer Confidence | 105.4 | 107.0 | -0.277 | Medium | -13.54 |
| 2026-10-15 | Unemployment Rate | 2.6 | 2.7 | +0.337 | Medium | +12.75 |
| 2026-08-03 | CPI MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | +2.737 | Low | +9.60 |
| 2026-09-22 | Consumer Confidence | 106.6 | 104.8 | +0.318 | Medium | +7.09 |
| 2026-10-01 | Exports YoY | 83.5 | 61.7 | +0.231 | Medium | +6.34 |
| 2026-09-29 | Industrial Production YoY | -2.2 | 4.0 | -0.477 | Low | -6.25 |
| 2026-08-03 | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 3.0 | +1.711 | Low | +6.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.4 | 0.3 | +1.131 | Low | +5.88 |
| 2026-08-03 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | +1.649 | Low | +5.78 |
| 2026-09-01 | CPI YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | +0.802 | Low | +5.50 |
| 2026-08-24 | Consumer Confidence | 104.5 | 107.0 | -0.433 | Medium | -4.94 |
| 2026-09-29 | Retail Sales MoM | -1.8 | 3.0 | -0.310 | Low | -4.05 |
| 2026-08-25 | Business Confidence | 81.0 | 83.0 | -0.307 | Medium | -3.58 |
| 2026-07-30 | Retail Sales MoM | 2.7 | 0.5 | +0.851 | Low | +2.72 |
| 2026-08-03 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.0 | +0.304 | Medium | +2.13 |
| 2026-09-01 | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.304 | Low | +2.08 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | +0.142 | Medium | +1.95 |
| 2026-10-01 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.137 | Low | +1.88 |
| 2026-09-17 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.162 | Low | +1.60 |
| 2026-07-30 | Industrial Production YoY | 5.8 | 2.5 | +0.407 | Low | +1.30 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | +0.183 | Low | +1.26 |
| 2026-09-14 | Import Prices YoY | 15.6 | 23.0 | +0.127 | Low | +1.18 |
| 2026-10-15 | Import Prices YoY | 17.6 | 15.3 | -0.060 | Low | -1.13 |
| 2026-07-29 | Business Confidence | 82.0 | 81.0 | +0.157 | Medium | +0.98 |
| 2026-08-30 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | -1.0 | +0.144 | Low | +0.95 |
| 2026-10-01 | Balance of Trade | 49.85 | 38.2 | +0.066 | Low | +0.90 |
| 2026-09-01 | Exports YoY | 68.7 | 62.6 | +0.064 | Medium | +0.87 |
| 2026-10-01 | Imports YoY | 26.0 | 21.5 | +0.058 | Low | +0.80 |
| 2026-08-13 | Import Prices YoY | 18.7 | 31.0 | +0.157 | Low | +0.69 |
| 2026-08-30 | Industrial Production YoY | 3.6 | 5.0 | -0.086 | Low | -0.56 |
| 2026-08-05 | Current Account | 49.73 | 34.7 | +0.122 | Low | +0.45 |
| 2026-07-30 | Industrial Production MoM | 6.4 | 3.0 | +0.136 | Low | +0.44 |
| 2026-10-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.7 | 7.5 | -0.017 | Low | -0.35 |
| 2026-09-03 | Current Account | 42.08 | 50.0 | -0.045 | Low | -0.32 |
| 2026-08-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.7 | 8.5 | +0.059 | Low | +0.31 |
| 2026-08-01 | Exports YoY | 62.8 | 59.0 | +0.042 | Medium | +0.28 |
| 2026-09-14 | Export Prices YoY | 42.4 | 52.0 | +0.029 | Low | +0.27 |
| 2026-10-15 | Export Prices YoY | 40.9 | 45.0 | +0.014 | Low | +0.27 |
| 2026-08-30 | Retail Sales MoM | -2.4 | -2.0 | -0.039 | Low | -0.25 |
| 2026-09-01 | Balance of Trade | 34.75 | 30.7 | +0.029 | Low | +0.20 |
| 2026-09-01 | Imports YoY | 22.5 | 24.7 | -0.025 | Low | -0.17 |
| 2026-09-17 | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.9 | 8.1 | +0.015 | Low | +0.15 |
| 2026-10-07 | Current Account | 46.11 | 45.0 | +0.007 | Low | +0.11 |
| 2026-08-13 | Export Prices YoY | 49.1 | 55.0 | +0.017 | Low | +0.07 |
| 2026-08-01 | Balance of Trade | 30.32 | 29.59 | +0.005 | Low | +0.02 |
| 2026-08-18 | Exports YoY | 63.0 | 62.8 | +0.002 | Low | +0.01 |
| 2026-09-15 | Imports YoY | 22.4 | 22.5 | -0.001 | Low | -0.01 |
| 2026-08-01 | Imports YoY | 26.5 | 26.6 | -0.001 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | Unemployment Rate | 2.8 | 2.8 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | Balance of Trade | 30.39 | 30.32 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | Imports YoY | 26.5 | 26.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0.6 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unemployment Rate | 2.7 | 2.7 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Balance of Trade | 34.79 | 34.75 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Exports YoY | 68.7 | 68.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-20 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |