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Economic Surprises › New Zealand

New Zealand Economic Surprise Index

+8.0 ▲ vs 1w ago (+6.0)
New Zealand economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+8.0
1 Week Ago
+6.0
Releases (90d)
79
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (79 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-10-21 Consumer Price Index 0.7 0.8 +1.465 Medium +63.76
2026-10-20 3-Month Bill Auction 3.133 3.009 +1.987 Low +42.25
2026-09-29 3-Month Bill Auction 3.084 2.909 +2.900 Low +37.97
2026-10-27 3-Month Bill Auction 3.192 3.109 +1.287 Low +32.18
2026-08-23 Retail Sales QoQ -0.5 0.1 -1.831 High -30.59
2026-10-15 Business NZ PMI 56.5 54.0 +0.726 Medium +27.51
2026-09-30 Building Permits MoM 5.6 0.9 +1.579 Low +21.15
2026-10-13 3-Month Bill Auction 3.071 3.009 +0.993 Low +17.97
2026-09-02 Import Prices QoQ 13.8 1.1 -2.374 Low -16.65
2026-09-15 3-Month Bill Auction 2.902 2.809 +1.596 Low +15.12
2026-10-15 Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY 0.9 -0.4 +0.794 Low +15.05
2026-09-07 Manufacturing Sales YoY 6.4 -1.0 +1.833 Low +14.43
2026-08-20 Balance of Trade MoM -1949.0 -175.0 -2.733 Low -14.20
2026-09-15 Westpac Consumer Confidence 89.5 82.3 +1.414 Low +13.40
2026-10-06 3-Month Bill Auction 3.06 3.009 +0.817 Low +12.58
2026-09-16 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.1 +0.584 Medium +11.32
2026-10-21 Inflation Rate QoQ 0.7 0.8 +0.251 Medium +10.92
2026-09-01 3-Month Bill Auction 2.892 2.809 +1.425 Low +9.77
2026-08-13 Business NZ PMI 54.3 58.4 -1.101 Medium -9.73
2026-10-21 Credit Card Spending YoY 6.9 3.4 +0.442 Low +9.61
2026-09-08 3-Month Bill Auction 2.878 2.809 +1.184 Low +9.54
2026-09-15 Current Account -1.67 -2.57 +0.479 Medium +9.08
2026-10-18 Balance of Trade MoM -1971.0 -775.0 -0.416 Low -8.45
2026-08-04 Employment Change QoQ 0.5 0.2 +1.145 Medium +8.22
2026-10-05 Capacity Utilization 91.0 89.9 +0.542 Low +8.15
2026-10-18 Services NZ PSI 50.9 50.0 +0.339 Low +6.89
2026-10-18 Composite NZ PCI 53.4 52.5 +0.338 Low +6.87
2026-09-02 Export Prices QoQ 3.5 1.0 -0.924 Low -6.48
2026-10-05 Business Confidence 43.0 15.0 +0.412 Low +6.20
2026-09-01 Building Permits MoM -4.3 2.5 -0.822 Low -5.64
2026-07-30 ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence 99.3 90.5 +1.685 Low +5.39
2026-08-25 3-Month Bill Auction 2.85 2.8999 -0.830 Low -4.84
2026-08-23 Retail Sales QoQ 0.7 0.3 +0.407 Medium +4.53
2026-09-10 Business NZ PMI 53.1 54.0 -0.261 Medium -4.41
2026-08-04 Unemployment Rate 5.6 5.4 -0.582 Medium -4.18
2026-08-16 Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM 1.3 -0.6 +0.808 Low +3.83
2026-08-04 Participation Rate 70.7 70.3 +1.053 Low +3.78
2026-08-16 Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY 3.4 0.8 +0.794 Low +3.76
2026-10-15 Food Inflation YoY 2.4 2.6 +0.166 Low +3.14
2026-09-02 Terms of Trade QoQ -9.0 -2.2 -0.424 Low -2.98
2026-08-13 Inflation Expectations 2.34 2.7 +0.666 Low +2.95
2026-09-16 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2.6 2.3 +0.138 Medium +2.68
2026-10-21 Inflation Rate YoY 3.7 3.8 +0.120 Low +2.62
2026-08-16 Composite NZ PCI 52.6 54.0 -0.512 Low -2.42
2026-08-04 Labour Cost Index YoY 2.1 2.0 -0.657 Low -2.36
2026-09-13 Services NZ PSI 51.2 50.5 +0.261 Low +2.36
2026-08-04 Labour Cost Index QoQ 0.7 0.6 -0.634 Low -2.28
2026-08-16 Food Inflation YoY 1.9 2.4 +0.449 Low +2.13
2026-09-14 Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY 0.2 3.0 -0.228 Low -2.11
2026-08-18 Producer Price Index QoQ 2.9 1.3 -0.424 Low -2.10
2026-08-21 Credit Card Spending YoY 5.3 2.8 +0.383 Low +2.04
2026-10-13 Visitor Arrivals YoY 8.0 4.3 +0.105 Low +1.91
2026-09-21 Credit Card Spending YoY 3.5 5.5 -0.156 Low -1.70
2026-10-15 Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM -0.4 -0.6 +0.085 Low +1.61
2026-08-16 Services NZ PSI 50.6 51.4 -0.293 Low -1.39
2026-08-20 Balance of Trade -1.95 -0.175 -0.127 Medium -1.32
2026-08-18 PPI Output QoQ 1.6 0.8 -0.251 Low -1.25
2026-09-13 Visitor Arrivals YoY 8.5 4.0 +0.138 Low +1.25
2026-07-30 ANZ Business Confidence 56.1 36.0 +0.172 Medium +1.10
2026-09-17 Food Inflation YoY 1.9 2.0 +0.108 Low +1.07
2026-10-01 ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence 97.6 98.0 -0.071 Low -0.97
2026-10-18 Imports 8.44 7.6 +0.046 Low +0.94
2026-09-02 ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence 98.0 98.7 -0.123 Low -0.86
2026-09-17 Exports 6.66 7.4 -0.087 Low -0.86
2026-10-18 Balance of Trade -1.971 -0.775 -0.019 Medium -0.79
2026-09-17 Imports 8.0 9.7 -0.074 Low -0.73
2026-09-13 Composite NZ PCI 52.5 52.3 +0.075 Low +0.68
2026-09-14 Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM -0.9 -0.7 -0.073 Low -0.67
2026-09-17 Balance of Trade MoM -1349.0 -1775.0 +0.065 Low +0.64
2026-08-02 Building Permits MoM -3.6 -2.3 -0.171 Low -0.59
2026-09-30 ANZ Business Confidence 51.9 55.1 -0.018 Medium -0.48
2026-08-23 Retail Sales YoY 3.3 3.2 +0.019 High +0.32
2026-08-20 Imports 9.34 8.3 +0.053 Low +0.27
2026-08-20 Exports 7.39 7.7 -0.035 Low -0.18
2026-08-31 ANZ Business Confidence 53.7 55.7 -0.011 Medium -0.15
2026-08-13 Visitor Arrivals YoY 8.1 7.0 +0.019 Low +0.09
2026-10-18 Exports 6.47 6.5 -0.004 Low -0.08
2026-09-17 Balance of Trade -1.349 -1.775 +0.003 Medium +0.06
2026-09-02 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.75 2.75 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms