New Zealand
+4.0
▬
vs 1w ago (+4.0)
New Zealand economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+4.0
1 Week Ago
+4.0
Releases (90d)
64
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Business NZ PMI +3.38z
- Composite NZ PCI +1.82z
- ANZ Business Confidence +0.70z
- Services NZ PSI +0.86z
- ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence +0.81z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Consumer Price Index -0.91z
- Westpac Consumer Confidence -2.20z
- Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM -0.95z
- Balance of Trade MoM -0.69z
- Inflation Expectations -2.54z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (64 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Business NZ PMI | 59.7 | 49.0 | +3.381 | Medium | +106.51 |
| 2026-07-20 | Consumer Price Index | 1.5 | 1.4 | -0.912 | Medium | -37.92 |
| 2026-07-12 | Composite NZ PCI | 53.6 | 48.9 | +1.824 | Low | +31.51 |
| 2026-06-16 | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 92.9 | -2.201 | Low | -20.85 |
| 2026-06-30 | ANZ Business Confidence | 36.6 | 11.0 | +0.697 | Medium | +18.26 |
| 2026-07-14 | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -1.4 | 0.5 | -0.951 | Low | -17.20 |
| 2026-07-12 | Services NZ PSI | 50.6 | 48.3 | +0.863 | Low | +14.91 |
| 2026-07-19 | Balance of Trade MoM | 23.0 | 250.0 | -0.690 | Low | -14.02 |
| 2026-07-02 | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 91.3 | 87.2 | +0.814 | Low | +11.16 |
| 2026-05-13 | Inflation Expectations | 2.53 | 1.7 | -2.545 | Low | -10.99 |
| 2026-06-08 | Manufacturing Sales YoY | 2.8 | -0.8 | +1.299 | Low | +10.23 |
| 2026-06-02 | Building Permits MoM | 10.9 | -3.6 | +1.269 | Low | +8.70 |
| 2026-05-29 | ANZ Business Confidence | 10.0 | -8.0 | +0.674 | Medium | +8.43 |
| 2026-05-17 | Services NZ PSI | 48.9 | 45.0 | +1.571 | Low | +7.44 |
| 2026-06-17 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.1 | +0.382 | Medium | +7.41 |
| 2026-06-14 | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | 1.7 | 0.4 | +0.813 | Low | +7.36 |
| 2026-07-16 | Food Inflation YoY | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.344 | Low | +6.52 |
| 2026-05-28 | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 86.5 | 81.5 | +1.062 | Low | +6.48 |
| 2026-07-20 | Inflation Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 1.4 | -0.142 | Medium | -5.91 |
| 2026-05-17 | Composite NZ PCI | 49.4 | 46.8 | +1.054 | Low | +4.99 |
| 2026-04-30 | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 80.3 | 87.0 | -1.333 | Low | -4.26 |
| 2026-05-20 | Balance of Trade MoM | 1920.0 | 980.0 | +0.729 | Low | +3.70 |
| 2026-06-15 | Food Inflation YoY | 3.2 | 2.7 | -0.382 | Low | -3.54 |
| 2026-05-05 | Labour Cost Index QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.945 | Low | -3.39 |
| 2026-05-14 | Food Inflation YoY | 2.6 | 3.9 | +0.688 | Low | +3.04 |
| 2026-07-14 | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 1.3 | 3.6 | -0.154 | Low | -2.79 |
| 2026-04-30 | ANZ Business Confidence | -10.6 | 27.0 | -0.417 | Medium | -2.67 |
| 2026-05-18 | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -1.3 | 1.1 | -0.546 | Low | -2.65 |
| 2026-06-14 | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 3.3 | 1.5 | +0.290 | Low | +2.62 |
| 2026-07-20 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 4.0 | -0.113 | Low | -2.35 |
| 2026-04-30 | Building Permits MoM | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.709 | Low | -2.27 |
| 2026-05-05 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.4 | +0.291 | Medium | +2.09 |
| 2026-06-17 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.5 | 1.1 | +0.216 | Low | +2.09 |
| 2026-05-21 | Retail Sales YoY | 4.5 | 2.8 | +0.364 | Low | +1.89 |
| 2026-05-05 | Employment Change QoQ | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.253 | Medium | -1.82 |
| 2026-06-14 | Services NZ PSI | 47.5 | 48.0 | -0.189 | Low | -1.71 |
| 2026-07-01 | Building Permits MoM | -4.0 | -6.3 | +0.115 | Low | +1.54 |
| 2026-05-21 | Retail Sales QoQ | 0.9 | 0.5 | +0.249 | Low | +1.29 |
| 2026-06-17 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.065 | Medium | -1.25 |
| 2026-05-18 | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.4 | 0.8 | -0.253 | Low | -1.23 |
| 2026-07-13 | Visitor Arrivals YoY | 6.7 | 4.5 | +0.058 | Low | +1.03 |
| 2026-05-05 | Participation Rate | 70.4 | 70.5 | -0.263 | Low | -0.94 |
| 2026-07-13 | Capacity Utilization | 90.8 | 90.9 | -0.047 | Low | -0.83 |
| 2026-05-21 | Retail Sales QoQ | 1.0 | 0.8 | +0.078 | Medium | +0.81 |
| 2026-05-18 | PPI Output QoQ | 0.8 | 0.5 | -0.148 | Low | -0.72 |
| 2026-06-18 | Balance of Trade MoM | 800.0 | 875.0 | -0.065 | Low | -0.65 |
| 2026-06-02 | Terms of Trade QoQ | -2.0 | -1.2 | -0.091 | Low | -0.62 |
| 2026-05-18 | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 2.0 | 3.4 | -0.099 | Low | -0.48 |
| 2026-07-19 | Balance of Trade | 0.02 | 0.25 | -0.011 | Medium | -0.46 |
| 2026-05-20 | Exports | 8.62 | 7.8 | +0.089 | Low | +0.45 |
| 2026-07-19 | Exports | 8.09 | 7.9 | +0.020 | Low | +0.41 |
| 2026-06-14 | Composite NZ PCI | 48.4 | 48.5 | -0.039 | Low | -0.35 |
| 2026-05-20 | Balance of Trade | 1.92 | 0.98 | +0.012 | Medium | +0.12 |
| 2026-05-20 | Imports | 6.7 | 7.0 | -0.018 | Low | -0.09 |
| 2026-05-13 | Visitor Arrivals YoY | 15.1 | 17.0 | -0.013 | Low | -0.06 |
| 2026-07-19 | Imports | 8.07 | 8.1 | -0.002 | Low | -0.03 |
| 2026-06-18 | Balance of Trade | 0.8 | 0.875 | -0.001 | Medium | -0.02 |
| 2026-06-11 | Visitor Arrivals YoY | 8.0 | 7.9 | +0.002 | Low | +0.01 |
| 2026-05-05 | Labour Cost Index YoY | 2.0 | 2.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | Business NZ PMI | 50.5 | 50.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | Current Account | -1.01 | -1.01 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |