Philippines Economic Surprise Index
-1.9 ▲ vs 1w ago (-6.9)
Philippines economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-1.9
1 Week Ago
-6.9
Releases (90d)
42
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Interest Rate Decision +1.79z
- Unemployment Rate +0.60z
- Foreign Direct Investment +0.59z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI +1.49z
- Balance of Trade +0.18z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -2.41z
- Business Confidence -3.78z
- Inflation Rate YoY -0.79z
- Unemployment Rate -1.03z
- Core Inflation Rate YoY -0.60z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (42 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.5 | 5.25 | +1.786 | Medium | +79.56 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 54.5 | -2.409 | Low | -33.03 |
| 2026-09-04 | Business Confidence | -20.3 | 2.0 | -3.784 | Low | -27.81 |
| 2026-10-06 | Inflation Rate YoY | 7.2 | 6.6 | -0.791 | Medium | -24.33 |
| 2026-10-07 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.600 | Medium | +18.91 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unemployment Rate | 6.0 | 5.0 | -1.029 | Medium | -16.59 |
| 2026-10-13 | Foreign Direct Investment | 0.7 | 0.5 | +0.586 | Low | +10.60 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 52.0 | +1.494 | Low | +10.24 |
| 2026-10-06 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.7 | 4.4 | -0.597 | Low | -9.19 |
| 2026-09-25 | Business Confidence | -10.9 | 10.0 | -0.709 | Low | -8.47 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.3 | 2.8 | -1.893 | Low | -7.28 |
| 2026-08-07 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.3 | 2.8 | -0.742 | Medium | -5.71 |
| 2026-10-06 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.0 | 0.6 | -0.360 | Low | -5.54 |
| 2026-10-22 | Budget Balance | -248.9 | -175.0 | -0.227 | Low | -5.06 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.6 | 0.9 | -1.021 | Low | -3.93 |
| 2026-08-06 | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.5 | -0.457 | Medium | -3.44 |
| 2026-08-07 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0.9 | -0.429 | Medium | -3.30 |
| 2026-08-13 | Foreign Direct Investment | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.732 | Low | -3.24 |
| 2026-09-10 | Foreign Direct Investment | 0.4 | 0.51 | -0.316 | Low | -2.67 |
| 2026-09-30 | Balance of Trade | -3.85 | -6.3 | +0.182 | Low | +2.44 |
| 2026-09-04 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.1 | 6.0 | -0.145 | Medium | -2.13 |
| 2026-08-27 | Budget Balance | -106.3 | -220.0 | +0.278 | Low | +1.70 |
| 2026-08-27 | Budget Balance | -106.3 | -220.0 | +0.278 | Low | +1.70 |
| 2026-07-31 | Business Confidence | 0.0 | -45.0 | +0.339 | Low | +1.11 |
| 2026-08-28 | Balance of Trade | -5.973 | -4.4 | -0.168 | Low | -1.05 |
| 2026-08-05 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.2 | 6.3 | +0.138 | Medium | +1.01 |
| 2026-08-05 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.270 | Low | +0.99 |
| 2026-09-28 | Consumer Confidence | -29.8 | -40.0 | +0.072 | Low | +0.91 |
| 2026-09-04 | Industrial Production YoY | 9.6 | 14.0 | -0.109 | Low | -0.80 |
| 2026-09-04 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.108 | Low | -0.79 |
| 2026-08-05 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 4.1 | -0.214 | Low | -0.78 |
| 2026-09-24 | Budget Balance | -161.3 | -150.0 | -0.040 | Low | -0.47 |
| 2026-08-06 | Industrial Production YoY | 13.5 | 10.0 | +0.122 | Low | +0.46 |
| 2026-08-05 | CPI YoY | 6.2 | 6.3 | +0.116 | Low | +0.43 |
| 2026-07-30 | Balance of Trade | -4.939 | -4.4 | -0.057 | Low | -0.18 |
| 2026-10-07 | Industrial Production YoY | 10.8 | 11.0 | -0.006 | Low | -0.10 |
| 2026-07-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 4.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |