Philippines
-5.7
▼
vs 1w ago (-3.8)
Philippines economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-5.7
1 Week Ago
-3.8
Releases (90d)
46
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI +1.65z
- Inflation Rate MoM +3.76z
- CPI MoM +1.59z
- Foreign Exchange Reserves +1.22z
- Budget Balance +0.27z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Business Confidence -3.67z
- Unemployment Rate -1.02z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY -1.89z
- GDP Growth Rate YoY -0.74z
- Gross Domestic Product QoQ -1.02z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (46 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Business Confidence | -20.3 | 2.0 | -3.669 | Low | -78.03 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unemployment Rate | 6.0 | 5.0 | -1.020 | Medium | -47.61 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 52.0 | +1.649 | Low | +32.72 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.3 | 2.8 | -1.893 | Low | -21.08 |
| 2026-07-07 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | 0.05 | +3.762 | Low | +20.47 |
| 2026-08-07 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.3 | 2.8 | -0.742 | Medium | -16.54 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.6 | 0.9 | -1.021 | Low | -11.37 |
| 2026-08-06 | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.5 | -0.454 | Medium | -9.87 |
| 2026-08-07 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0.9 | -0.429 | Medium | -9.54 |
| 2026-08-13 | Foreign Direct Investment | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.724 | Low | -9.26 |
| 2026-07-07 | CPI MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | +1.587 | Low | +8.64 |
| 2026-09-10 | Foreign Direct Investment | 0.4 | 0.51 | -0.312 | Low | -7.63 |
| 2026-07-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 104.8 | 102.0 | +1.223 | Low | +6.66 |
| 2026-09-04 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.1 | 6.0 | -0.145 | Medium | -6.16 |
| 2026-08-27 | Budget Balance | -106.3 | -220.0 | +0.267 | Low | +4.73 |
| 2026-08-27 | Budget Balance | -106.3 | -220.0 | +0.267 | Low | +4.73 |
| 2026-07-10 | Foreign Direct Investment | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.724 | Low | -4.22 |
| 2026-07-07 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.4 | 4.1 | -0.637 | Low | -3.46 |
| 2026-07-31 | Business Confidence | 0.0 | -45.0 | +0.329 | Low | +3.12 |
| 2026-08-28 | Balance of Trade | -5.973 | -4.4 | -0.166 | Low | -3.01 |
| 2026-08-05 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.2 | 6.3 | +0.138 | Medium | +2.93 |
| 2026-07-07 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.4 | 6.6 | +0.263 | Medium | +2.86 |
| 2026-08-05 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.269 | Low | +2.86 |
| 2026-09-04 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.107 | Low | -2.29 |
| 2026-09-04 | Industrial Production YoY | 9.6 | 14.0 | -0.108 | Low | -2.29 |
| 2026-08-05 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 4.1 | -0.212 | Low | -2.26 |
| 2026-08-06 | Industrial Production YoY | 13.5 | 10.0 | +0.120 | Low | +1.30 |
| 2026-08-05 | CPI YoY | 6.2 | 6.3 | +0.116 | Low | +1.24 |
| 2026-07-07 | CPI YoY | 6.4 | 6.6 | +0.222 | Low | +1.21 |
| 2026-07-08 | Unemployment Rate | 4.8 | 4.7 | -0.109 | Medium | -1.21 |
| 2026-06-26 | Business Confidence | -25.2 | -45.0 | +0.145 | Low | +0.61 |
| 2026-07-30 | Balance of Trade | -4.939 | -4.4 | -0.057 | Low | -0.53 |
| 2026-06-29 | Consumer Confidence | -42.0 | -30.0 | -0.109 | Low | -0.49 |
| 2026-07-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 51.0 | -0.058 | Low | -0.27 |
| 2026-07-07 | Industrial Production YoY | 13.5 | 12.0 | +0.043 | Low | +0.23 |
| 2026-07-23 | Budget Balance | -264.3 | -280.0 | +0.029 | Low | +0.23 |
| 2026-06-30 | Balance of Trade | -5.481 | -5.75 | +0.022 | Low | +0.10 |
| 2026-06-25 | Budget Balance | -198.5 | -200.0 | +0.004 | Low | +0.02 |
| 2026-06-25 | Budget Balance | -198.5 | -200.0 | +0.004 | Low | +0.02 |
| 2026-06-25 | Budget Balance | -198.5 | -200.0 | +0.004 | Low | +0.02 |
| 2026-06-18 | Interest Rate Decision | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | Interest Rate Decision | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 4.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |