Poland
+1.0
▬
vs 1w ago (+1.3)
Poland economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.0
1 Week Ago
+1.3
Releases (90d)
70
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- CPI MoM +2.43z
- CPI YoY +1.81z
- Inflation Rate MoM +3.54z
- Inflation Rate MoM +1.33z
- M3 Money Supply YoY +0.74z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Producer Price Index YoY -11.21z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI -2.11z
- Business Confidence -1.67z
- Consumer Confidence -0.55z
- Balance of Trade -0.97z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (70 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.9 | -0.1 | -11.213 | Low | -58.25 |
| 2026-06-30 | CPI MoM | -0.5 | -0.2 | +2.428 | Low | +31.79 |
| 2026-07-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.1 | 49.7 | -2.112 | Low | -28.29 |
| 2026-06-30 | CPI YoY | 2.5 | 2.7 | +1.806 | Low | +23.64 |
| 2026-05-29 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | +3.539 | Low | +22.12 |
| 2026-06-22 | Business Confidence | -6.0 | -3.5 | -1.670 | Low | -18.17 |
| 2026-06-30 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.5 | -0.2 | +1.327 | Low | +17.38 |
| 2026-07-22 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 11.8 | 11.2 | +0.740 | Low | +16.11 |
| 2026-06-30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.464 | Medium | +12.15 |
| 2026-07-22 | Consumer Confidence | -10.2 | -9.5 | -0.554 | Low | -12.06 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.887 | Medium | +11.88 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | +0.679 | Medium | +9.10 |
| 2026-06-12 | Balance of Trade | -1995.0 | -700.0 | -0.966 | Low | -8.34 |
| 2026-06-18 | Consumer Confidence | -9.9 | -11.1 | +0.813 | Low | +8.07 |
| 2026-07-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 293.5 | 297.0 | -0.410 | Low | -6.31 |
| 2026-07-20 | Corporate Sector Wages YoY | 5.9 | 5.6 | +0.300 | Low | +6.24 |
| 2026-05-20 | Consumer Confidence | -11.3 | -13.5 | +1.225 | Low | +6.22 |
| 2026-06-23 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 11.0 | 11.4 | -0.485 | Low | -5.40 |
| 2026-05-29 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.3 | +0.380 | Medium | +4.75 |
| 2026-05-18 | CPI YoY | 3.0 | 2.9 | -0.841 | Low | -4.08 |
| 2026-06-19 | Industrial Production YoY | 4.1 | 2.5 | +0.394 | Low | +4.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 0.9 | -0.417 | Medium | -3.69 |
| 2026-04-30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | +0.537 | Medium | +3.43 |
| 2026-06-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 48.6 | +0.480 | Low | +3.21 |
| 2026-05-14 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | -0.355 | Medium | -3.14 |
| 2026-07-22 | Business Confidence | -5.3 | -5.0 | -0.140 | Low | -3.05 |
| 2026-05-21 | Corporate Sector Wages YoY | 5.4 | 6.0 | -0.560 | Low | -2.91 |
| 2026-07-14 | Balance of Trade | -1182.0 | -1700.0 | +0.159 | Low | +2.88 |
| 2026-07-14 | Current Account | -1071.0 | -1674.0 | +0.121 | Low | +2.19 |
| 2026-07-22 | Retail Sales YoY | 6.2 | 5.2 | +0.100 | Low | +2.17 |
| 2026-06-22 | Corporate Sector Wages YoY | 5.8 | 6.0 | -0.187 | Low | -2.03 |
| 2026-05-25 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.3 | 3.0 | -0.294 | Low | -1.68 |
| 2026-05-15 | Balance of Trade | -497.0 | -1300.0 | +0.323 | Low | +1.46 |
| 2026-06-01 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | +0.188 | Low | +1.26 |
| 2026-06-01 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0.5 | +0.188 | Low | +1.26 |
| 2026-06-22 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.0 | 3.8 | -0.109 | Low | -1.19 |
| 2026-04-30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 1.0 | +0.354 | Low | +1.13 |
| 2026-05-15 | Current Account | -234.0 | -520.0 | +0.185 | Low | +0.84 |
| 2026-05-21 | Industrial Production YoY | 3.1 | 4.2 | -0.161 | Low | -0.84 |
| 2026-07-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.035 | Low | -0.73 |
| 2026-07-20 | Industrial Production YoY | 7.6 | 7.2 | +0.034 | Low | +0.71 |
| 2026-05-25 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 11.3 | 11.2 | +0.123 | Low | +0.70 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 48.8 | 48.6 | +0.120 | Low | +0.42 |
| 2026-05-22 | Business Confidence | -4.1 | -4.0 | -0.058 | Low | -0.31 |
| 2026-06-22 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.022 | Low | +0.24 |
| 2026-05-06 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | CPI YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | CPI MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Employment Growth YoY | -0.9 | -0.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Unemployment Rate | 6.0 | 6.0 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-02 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | CPI MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | CPI YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | CPI YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-06-22 | Employment Growth YoY | -0.9 | -0.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-24 | Unemployment Rate | 5.9 | 5.9 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | CPI YoY | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | CPI MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | Employment Growth YoY | -0.9 | -0.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Unemployment Rate | 5.8 | 5.8 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |