Poland Economic Surprise Index
-0.0 ▬ vs 1w ago (+0.4)
Poland economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-0.0
1 Week Ago
+0.4
Releases (90d)
64
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Unemployment Rate +1.67z
- M3 Money Supply YoY +1.34z
- Core Inflation Rate YoY +1.15z
- Foreign Exchange Reserves +0.91z
- Consumer Confidence +0.72z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Consumer Confidence -1.64z
- Foreign Exchange Reserves -1.02z
- Corporate Sector Wages YoY -0.85z
- Inflation Rate YoY -0.61z
- Balance of Trade -0.43z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (64 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Unemployment Rate | 5.8 | 5.9 | +1.667 | Medium | +37.99 |
| 2026-10-21 | Consumer Confidence | -14.0 | -11.4 | -1.644 | Low | -35.77 |
| 2026-10-22 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 12.5 | 11.4 | +1.340 | Low | +29.84 |
| 2026-10-15 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.3 | +1.153 | Low | +21.85 |
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 295.4 | 304.5 | -1.025 | Low | -16.15 |
| 2026-09-21 | Corporate Sector Wages YoY | 5.6 | 6.6 | -0.855 | Low | -9.30 |
| 2026-08-31 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | -0.612 | Medium | -8.20 |
| 2026-10-14 | Balance of Trade | -3047.0 | -1700.0 | -0.432 | Low | -7.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 304.9 | 297.0 | +0.913 | Low | +7.19 |
| 2026-09-17 | Consumer Confidence | -10.8 | -12.0 | +0.721 | Low | +7.15 |
| 2026-10-20 | Industrial Production YoY | 4.6 | 3.1 | +0.301 | Low | +6.39 |
| 2026-08-31 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.895 | Low | -5.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.2 | -0.595 | Low | -5.76 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 48.3 | 49.6 | -0.775 | Low | -5.31 |
| 2026-08-19 | Consumer Confidence | -11.3 | -10.0 | -0.937 | Low | -4.76 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 3.9 | 3.8 | +0.639 | Low | +4.28 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | 48.5 | +0.305 | Low | +4.18 |
| 2026-10-20 | Corporate Sector Wages YoY | 5.9 | 6.1 | -0.185 | Low | -3.93 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.0 | 0.9 | +0.511 | Low | +3.42 |
| 2026-10-14 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.1 | 4.0 | -0.158 | Low | -2.93 |
| 2026-10-22 | Business Confidence | -6.6 | -6.3 | -0.130 | Low | -2.89 |
| 2026-08-13 | Current Account | -2216.0 | -764.0 | -0.644 | Low | -2.85 |
| 2026-08-20 | Corporate Sector Wages YoY | 6.8 | 6.2 | +0.546 | Low | +2.84 |
| 2026-09-14 | Balance of Trade | -1843.0 | -1200.0 | -0.292 | Low | -2.70 |
| 2026-08-13 | Balance of Trade | -1469.0 | -700.0 | -0.598 | Low | -2.64 |
| 2026-10-14 | Current Account | -3567.0 | -2600.0 | -0.126 | Low | -2.33 |
| 2026-09-18 | Industrial Production YoY | 4.3 | 6.8 | -0.228 | Low | -2.32 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.224 | Low | +2.12 |
| 2026-08-24 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 11.3 | 11.6 | -0.359 | Low | -2.05 |
| 2026-08-13 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.9 | 1.0 | -0.460 | Low | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | Business Confidence | -5.8 | -5.5 | -0.148 | Low | -1.73 |
| 2026-08-20 | Employment Growth YoY | -0.8 | -0.9 | +0.304 | Low | +1.58 |
| 2026-09-22 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 11.3 | 11.2 | +0.124 | Low | +1.38 |
| 2026-10-22 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.3 | 3.7 | -0.057 | Low | -1.26 |
| 2026-08-31 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.9 | 3.8 | +0.170 | Low | +1.14 |
| 2026-09-18 | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.2 | 3.6 | -0.094 | Low | -0.96 |
| 2026-08-13 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.0 | -0.095 | Medium | -0.84 |
| 2026-08-31 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.0 | 0.9 | +0.106 | Low | +0.71 |
| 2026-08-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.8 | 2.3 | -0.123 | Low | -0.64 |
| 2026-10-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.1 | 5.8 | -0.029 | Low | -0.62 |
| 2026-09-22 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.8 | 4.2 | -0.050 | Low | -0.56 |
| 2026-08-24 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.9 | 4.5 | -0.070 | Low | -0.40 |
| 2026-08-20 | Industrial Production YoY | 5.1 | 4.9 | +0.025 | Low | +0.13 |
| 2026-09-14 | Current Account | -2419.0 | -2341.0 | -0.011 | Low | -0.10 |
| 2026-07-31 | CPI MoM | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | CPI YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | CPI YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | CPI MoM | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 3.8 | 3.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.8 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | Business Confidence | -5.1 | -5.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | Unemployment Rate | 5.8 | 5.8 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | Employment Growth YoY | -0.8 | -0.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-20 | Employment Growth YoY | -0.8 | -0.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-23 | Unemployment Rate | 5.8 | 5.8 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |