Russia
-5.8
▼
vs 1w ago (+5.9)
Russia economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-5.8
1 Week Ago
+5.9
Releases (90d)
59
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with MOEX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- GDP Growth Rate YoY +1.96z
- Inflation Rate MoM +1.27z
- Retail Sales YoY +3.64z
- Vehicle Sales YoY +6.09z
- Inflation Rate YoY +1.02z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Producer Price Index YoY -17.49z
- Producer Price Index MoM -2.06z
- Business Confidence -1.68z
- Corporate Profits -1.45z
- Business Confidence -2.46z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (59 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | -0.1 | -17.490 | Low | -427.27 |
| 2026-05-15 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | -0.2 | -0.5 | +1.964 | Medium | +85.51 |
| 2026-05-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | +1.272 | Medium | +55.36 |
| 2026-04-29 | Retail Sales YoY | 6.2 | 2.5 | +3.639 | Low | +54.72 |
| 2026-05-20 | Producer Price Index MoM | 6.1 | 1.0 | -2.062 | Low | -50.37 |
| 2026-04-03 | Vehicle Sales YoY | 22.9 | 1.0 | +6.088 | Low | +50.21 |
| 2026-05-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 5.8 | +1.016 | Medium | +44.24 |
| 2026-04-01 | Unemployment Rate | 2.1 | 2.3 | +2.712 | Medium | +42.71 |
| 2026-04-29 | Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.3 | +1.356 | Medium | +40.79 |
| 2026-04-10 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.0 | 0.7 | +1.403 | Medium | +27.21 |
| 2026-04-29 | Business Confidence | -3.2 | -1.1 | -1.680 | Low | -25.27 |
| 2026-04-29 | Corporate Profits | 3.35 | 5.0 | -1.454 | Low | -21.86 |
| 2026-04-29 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.8 | 0.5 | +1.410 | Low | +21.21 |
| 2026-04-29 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.8 | 0.5 | +1.410 | Low | +21.21 |
| 2026-05-08 | Vehicle Sales YoY | 10.8 | -3.5 | +1.136 | Low | +21.03 |
| 2026-04-01 | Business Confidence | -0.9 | 0.5 | -2.465 | Low | -19.41 |
| 2026-04-13 | Balance of Trade | 5.35 | 8.9 | -1.690 | Low | -17.56 |
| 2026-03-13 | CPI | 0.7 | 0.6 | -1.720 | Medium | -17.47 |
| 2026-04-01 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.3 | 2.8 | -2.195 | Low | -17.29 |
| 2026-05-14 | Balance of Trade | 13.97 | 11.75 | +0.800 | Low | +17.02 |
| 2026-03-20 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 11.4 | 9.1 | +2.675 | Low | +15.96 |
| 2026-04-22 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.0 | 0.5 | -1.213 | Low | -15.51 |
| 2026-04-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 48.3 | 50.2 | -0.968 | Medium | -15.25 |
| 2026-03-04 | Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.3 | +1.356 | Medium | +11.18 |
| 2026-03-13 | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.9 | 5.7 | -1.034 | Medium | -10.50 |
| 2026-04-10 | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.9 | 5.8 | -0.508 | Medium | -9.85 |
| 2026-04-01 | Corporate Profits | 2.03 | 2.8 | -1.211 | Low | -9.54 |
| 2026-05-18 | Current Account | 12.2 | 16.0 | -0.358 | Low | -8.35 |
| 2026-05-06 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 49.1 | 48.0 | +0.436 | Low | +7.71 |
| 2026-04-10 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.382 | Medium | -7.40 |
| 2026-04-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 48.8 | 51.2 | -0.892 | Low | -7.36 |
| 2026-04-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.5 | 52.5 | -0.878 | Low | -7.24 |
| 2026-03-25 | Consumer Confidence | -12.0 | -9.0 | -0.894 | Low | -5.99 |
| 2026-03-04 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.446 | Low | -5.96 |
| 2026-04-29 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 8.6 | 4.0 | +0.383 | Low | +5.76 |
| 2026-03-04 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | -2.1 | 1.7 | -1.213 | Low | -5.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Industrial Production YoY | 2.3 | 0.9 | +0.367 | Low | +4.69 |
| 2026-05-06 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.7 | 48.9 | +0.251 | Low | +4.44 |
| 2026-03-13 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.318 | Medium | -3.23 |
| 2026-03-18 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.5 | -1.4 | -0.549 | Low | -3.13 |
| 2026-03-25 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.429 | Low | -2.87 |
| 2026-03-13 | Balance of Trade | 6.6 | 7.5 | -0.508 | Low | -2.58 |
| 2026-04-22 | Producer Price Index YoY | -1.8 | -5.0 | -0.200 | Low | -2.56 |
| 2026-04-01 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 8.6 | 4.5 | +0.303 | Low | +2.39 |
| 2026-04-20 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 11.8 | 11.6 | +0.182 | Low | +2.23 |
| 2026-03-04 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 52.8 | -0.436 | Low | -1.80 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 48.1 | 48.0 | +0.053 | Medium | +1.80 |
| 2026-03-04 | Business Confidence | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.377 | Low | -1.56 |
| 2026-03-04 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.8 | 51.8 | -0.367 | Low | -1.51 |
| 2026-02-27 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.8 | 4.0 | -0.283 | Low | -1.04 |
| 2026-03-06 | Vehicle Sales YoY | -4.0 | -15.0 | +0.204 | Low | +0.88 |
| 2026-03-11 | Corporate Profits | 27.073 | 28.0 | -0.146 | Low | -0.71 |
| 2026-03-04 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 2.4 | 4.4 | -0.151 | Low | -0.62 |
| 2026-03-18 | Producer Price Index YoY | -5.2 | -4.0 | +0.094 | Low | +0.53 |
| 2026-03-02 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 49.6 | -0.052 | Medium | -0.41 |
| 2026-03-20 | Interest Rate Decision | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Interest Rate Decision | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | -1.5 | -1.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | Interest Rate Decision | 14.5 | 14.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |