Russia Economic Surprise Index
-1.6 ▼ vs 1w ago (+2.5)
Russia economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-1.6
1 Week Ago
+2.5
Releases (90d)
49
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with MOEX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- GDP Growth Rate YoY +8.13z
- Inflation Rate MoM +0.48z
- Inflation Rate YoY +0.47z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI +0.43z
- Current Account +2.28z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Producer Price Index MoM -4.00z
- Foreign Exchange Reserves -1.29z
- Unemployment Rate -1.41z
- Retail Sales YoY -0.98z
- Balance of Trade -0.71z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (49 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.5 | 0.2 | -4.005 | Low | -87.17 |
| 2026-08-12 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.3 | 0.2 | +8.127 | Medium | +70.19 |
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 731.76 | 770.0 | -1.294 | Low | -20.38 |
| 2026-09-02 | Unemployment Rate | 2.3 | 2.2 | -1.414 | Medium | -19.83 |
| 2026-10-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | +0.485 | Medium | +15.99 |
| 2026-10-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.3 | 6.4 | +0.468 | Medium | +15.45 |
| 2026-09-30 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.3 | 5.6 | -0.980 | Low | -13.14 |
| 2026-10-12 | Balance of Trade | 11.74 | 14.1 | -0.715 | Low | -12.65 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 49.0 | +0.426 | Medium | +11.68 |
| 2026-08-14 | Current Account | 21.4 | 8.0 | +2.284 | Low | +10.33 |
| 2026-08-19 | Producer Price Index MoM | -2.5 | 0.6 | +1.800 | Low | +9.14 |
| 2026-09-16 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.9 | -0.9 | -0.697 | Low | -6.75 |
| 2026-09-23 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.6 | 0.5 | -0.524 | Low | -5.97 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.8 | 49.8 | +0.393 | Low | +5.90 |
| 2026-09-04 | Vehicle Sales YoY | -7.3 | 5.0 | -0.713 | Low | -5.24 |
| 2026-10-07 | Vehicle Sales YoY | 0.0 | 16.5 | -0.290 | Low | -4.56 |
| 2026-09-23 | Consumer Confidence | -16.0 | -14.0 | -0.394 | Low | -4.49 |
| 2026-09-30 | Business Confidence | -0.5 | -1.0 | +0.302 | Low | +4.04 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.6 | 49.5 | +0.434 | Low | +3.12 |
| 2026-09-02 | Corporate Profits | 11.7 | 12.9 | -0.419 | Low | -2.94 |
| 2026-07-29 | Corporate Profits | 11.3 | 9.4 | +0.909 | Low | +2.84 |
| 2026-08-12 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.6 | +0.323 | Medium | +2.79 |
| 2026-08-11 | Balance of Trade | 12.46 | 14.5 | -0.601 | Low | -2.54 |
| 2026-09-02 | Retail Sales YoY | 5.3 | 6.2 | -0.347 | Low | -2.43 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.317 | Low | -2.22 |
| 2026-09-30 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 3.3 | 2.4 | +0.127 | Low | +1.70 |
| 2026-08-05 | Vehicle Sales YoY | 0.3 | 25.0 | -0.286 | Low | -1.05 |
| 2026-07-29 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.1 | 0.7 | +0.317 | Low | +0.99 |
| 2026-10-21 | Producer Price Index YoY | 8.6 | 6.7 | -0.044 | Low | -0.96 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.1 | +0.061 | Low | +0.92 |
| 2026-07-29 | Business Confidence | -1.2 | -1.9 | +0.222 | Low | +0.69 |
| 2026-09-16 | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 4.5 | -0.069 | Low | -0.67 |
| 2026-07-29 | Retail Sales YoY | 7.3 | 8.0 | -0.209 | Low | -0.65 |
| 2026-08-26 | Industrial Production YoY | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.102 | Low | -0.61 |
| 2026-09-02 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.058 | Low | -0.41 |
| 2026-09-02 | Business Confidence | -1.0 | -1.1 | +0.055 | Low | +0.38 |
| 2026-08-19 | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.6 | 10.0 | +0.053 | Low | +0.27 |
| 2026-09-11 | Balance of Trade | 13.59 | 13.5 | +0.028 | Low | +0.25 |
| 2026-07-29 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 4.5 | 4.2 | +0.024 | Low | +0.08 |
| 2026-07-29 | Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.2 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.0 | 6.0 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | Interest Rate Decision | 14.0 | 14.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.3 | 6.3 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | Corporate Profits | 13.0 | 13.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.2 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-23 | Interest Rate Decision | 14.0 | 14.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |