Russia
+8.4
▬
vs 1w ago (+8.2)
Russia economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+8.4
1 Week Ago
+8.2
Releases (90d)
62
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with MOEX Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Producer Price Index YoY +7.46z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY +9.78z
- Business Confidence +7.45z
- M2 Money Supply YoY +2.66z
- Unemployment Rate +1.37z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- CPI -1.72z
- Inflation Rate YoY -1.03z
- Retail Sales YoY -1.54z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY -1.22z
- Interest Rate Decision -0.79z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (62 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Producer Price Index YoY | -5.0 | -0.2 | +7.459 | Low | +89.03 |
| 2026-02-06 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.9 | 0.1 | +9.784 | Low | +88.50 |
| 2026-02-11 | Business Confidence | 0.7 | -0.1 | +7.454 | Low | +75.68 |
| 2026-03-13 | CPI | 0.7 | 0.6 | -1.720 | Medium | -69.87 |
| 2026-03-20 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 11.4 | 9.1 | +2.658 | Low | +63.46 |
| 2026-03-04 | Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.3 | +1.369 | Medium | +45.17 |
| 2026-02-13 | CPI | 1.6 | 2.0 | +2.064 | Medium | +43.90 |
| 2026-03-13 | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.9 | 5.7 | -1.031 | Medium | -41.88 |
| 2026-02-13 | Inflation Rate YoY | 6.0 | 6.4 | +1.837 | Medium | +39.06 |
| 2026-03-04 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.536 | Low | -25.33 |
| 2026-03-04 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | -2.1 | 1.7 | -1.215 | Low | -20.04 |
| 2026-02-18 | Producer Price Index MoM | -2.5 | 0.8 | +1.674 | Low | +19.98 |
| 2026-02-13 | Interest Rate Decision | 15.5 | 16.0 | -0.791 | Medium | -16.82 |
| 2026-02-13 | Interest Rate Decision | 15.5 | 16.0 | -0.791 | Medium | -16.82 |
| 2026-02-13 | Interest Rate Decision | 15.5 | 16.0 | -0.791 | Medium | -16.82 |
| 2026-02-06 | Full Year GDP Growth | 1.0 | 0.9 | +1.697 | Low | +15.35 |
| 2026-02-13 | CPI | 6.0 | 6.4 | +0.645 | Medium | +13.72 |
| 2026-02-13 | CPI | 6.0 | 6.4 | +0.645 | Medium | +13.72 |
| 2026-01-23 | Balance of Trade | 6.8 | 13.0 | -2.033 | Low | -13.31 |
| 2026-03-13 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.318 | Medium | -12.90 |
| 2026-03-18 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.5 | -1.4 | -0.551 | Low | -12.56 |
| 2026-03-06 | Vehicle Sales YoY | -4.0 | -15.0 | +0.667 | Low | +11.53 |
| 2026-01-16 | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.6 | 5.8 | +1.013 | Medium | +11.29 |
| 2026-02-02 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | 48.2 | +0.632 | Medium | +10.42 |
| 2026-03-13 | Balance of Trade | 6.6 | 7.5 | -0.512 | Low | -10.39 |
| 2026-02-06 | Industrial Production YoY | 3.7 | -1.0 | +1.102 | Low | +9.96 |
| 2025-12-26 | Unemployment Rate | 2.1 | 2.2 | +1.432 | Medium | +9.81 |
| 2026-01-16 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | +0.762 | Medium | +8.49 |
| 2026-02-13 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.6 | 2.0 | +0.381 | Medium | +8.10 |
| 2026-01-13 | Vehicle Sales YoY | 5.7 | -10.0 | +1.429 | Low | +7.42 |
| 2026-02-12 | Current Account | 9.2 | 17.5 | -0.702 | Low | -7.29 |
| 2026-03-04 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 52.8 | -0.431 | Low | -7.11 |
| 2026-02-04 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.1 | 50.0 | +0.791 | Low | +6.83 |
| 2026-03-04 | Business Confidence | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.399 | Low | -6.59 |
| 2026-03-04 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.8 | 51.8 | -0.363 | Low | -5.99 |
| 2025-12-26 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.3 | 2.0 | +1.697 | Low | +5.82 |
| 2026-02-06 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.9 | 3.2 | +0.571 | Low | +5.17 |
| 2026-02-27 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.8 | 4.0 | -0.281 | Low | -4.13 |
| 2026-01-16 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 754.9 | 735.0 | +0.736 | Low | +4.10 |
| 2026-01-16 | CPI | 5.6 | 5.8 | +0.356 | Medium | +3.96 |
| 2026-02-19 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 9.7 | 10.0 | -0.316 | Low | -3.85 |
| 2025-12-29 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 48.1 | 49.0 | -0.466 | Medium | -3.43 |
| 2026-02-11 | Balance of Trade | 10.02 | 9.3 | +0.330 | Low | +3.35 |
| 2026-03-11 | Corporate Profits | 27.073 | 28.0 | -0.148 | Low | -2.88 |
| 2025-12-26 | Business Confidence | -0.3 | -2.0 | +0.792 | Low | +2.71 |
| 2026-03-04 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 2.4 | 4.4 | -0.150 | Low | -2.48 |
| 2025-12-30 | M2 Money Supply YoY | 13.0 | 12.3 | +0.599 | Low | +2.25 |
| 2026-03-18 | Producer Price Index YoY | -5.2 | -4.0 | +0.093 | Low | +2.13 |
| 2026-02-04 | S&P Global Services PMI | 53.1 | 52.4 | +0.203 | Low | +1.75 |
| 2026-03-02 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 49.6 | -0.051 | Medium | -1.61 |
| 2025-12-24 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.7 | 1.2 | -0.371 | Low | -1.21 |
| 2025-12-26 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 6.1 | 3.1 | +0.320 | Low | +1.10 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.272 | Low | -0.93 |
| 2025-12-30 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.0 | 50.5 | -0.186 | Low | -0.70 |
| 2026-02-06 | Corporate Profits | 25.43 | 25.0 | +0.077 | Low | +0.70 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vehicle Sales YoY | -16.0 | -17.5 | +0.078 | Low | +0.69 |
| 2025-12-24 | Corporate Profits | 21.566 | 22.3 | -0.148 | Low | -0.48 |
| 2025-12-30 | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.3 | 52.6 | -0.087 | Low | -0.33 |
| 2026-02-06 | Real Wage Growth YoY | 5.8 | 6.1 | -0.016 | Low | -0.15 |
| 2026-02-06 | Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.2 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Interest Rate Decision | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Interest Rate Decision | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |