Turkey Economic Surprise Index
-0.9 ▼ vs 1w ago (+2.5)
Turkey economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-0.9
1 Week Ago
+2.5
Releases (90d)
100
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with BIST 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Current Account +5.18z
- Unemployment Rate +1.25z
- Retail Sales MoM +1.33z
- Exports +1.37z
- Inflation Rate YoY +0.51z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Unemployment Rate -1.11z
- Consumer Confidence -1.12z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY -1.57z
- Business Confidence -0.46z
- GDP Growth Rate YoY -1.06z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (100 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Current Account | 4.053 | 0.4 | +5.179 | Low | +93.70 |
| 2026-10-27 | Unemployment Rate | 8.4 | 7.9 | -1.111 | Medium | -55.55 |
| 2026-10-22 | Consumer Confidence | 84.8 | 92.0 | -1.121 | Medium | -49.93 |
| 2026-09-30 | Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.4 | +1.254 | Medium | +33.60 |
| 2026-10-12 | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | -0.3 | +1.328 | Low | +23.48 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | -1.567 | Medium | -20.99 |
| 2026-10-05 | Exports | 25.98 | 23.2 | +1.374 | Low | +20.66 |
| 2026-10-21 | Business Confidence | 99.8 | 102.5 | -0.458 | Medium | -19.94 |
| 2026-10-05 | Inflation Rate YoY | 29.73 | 30.3 | +0.506 | Medium | +15.22 |
| 2026-08-31 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | -1.065 | Medium | -14.27 |
| 2026-10-09 | Industrial Production MoM | -1.0 | 0.4 | -0.747 | Low | -12.32 |
| 2026-10-09 | Industrial Production YoY | -1.9 | -1.0 | -0.373 | Medium | -12.31 |
| 2026-08-31 | Unemployment Rate | 8.1 | 7.7 | -0.912 | Medium | -12.22 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unemployment Rate | 7.6 | 8.4 | +1.672 | Medium | +10.69 |
| 2026-10-22 | Overnight Lending Rate | 39.0 | 40.0 | -0.443 | Low | -9.86 |
| 2026-10-22 | Overnight Borrowing Rate | 34.5 | 35.5 | -0.429 | Low | -9.54 |
| 2026-10-27 | Participation Rate | 52.7 | 52.9 | -0.374 | Low | -9.34 |
| 2026-08-17 | Budget Balance | -378.1 | 100.0 | -1.918 | Low | -9.30 |
| 2026-10-07 | Treasury Cash Balance | -467.2 | -220.0 | -0.511 | Low | -8.05 |
| 2026-10-15 | Budget Balance | -532.2 | -260.0 | -0.420 | Low | -7.96 |
| 2026-10-05 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.84 | 2.3 | +0.258 | Medium | +7.77 |
| 2026-10-01 | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 49.0 | -0.563 | Low | -7.72 |
| 2026-09-22 | Consumer Confidence | 91.9 | 90.0 | +0.302 | Medium | +6.73 |
| 2026-09-25 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -0.03 | 0.5 | -0.545 | Low | -6.51 |
| 2026-10-05 | Balance of Trade | -5.23 | -7.8 | +0.198 | Medium | +5.96 |
| 2026-09-10 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.3 | -1.7 | +0.341 | Medium | +5.76 |
| 2026-08-10 | Industrial Production YoY | -1.4 | 2.4 | -0.656 | Medium | -5.41 |
| 2026-09-03 | CPI MoM | 1.84 | 1.93 | +0.358 | Medium | +5.14 |
| 2026-09-30 | Participation Rate | 52.5 | 52.7 | -0.375 | Low | -5.02 |
| 2026-08-31 | Participation Rate | 52.5 | 52.9 | -0.747 | Low | -5.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | Imports | 33.0 | 37.0 | -1.329 | Low | -4.66 |
| 2026-09-11 | Current Account | 0.036 | 0.65 | -0.536 | Low | -4.63 |
| 2026-08-17 | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | 10.0 | -0.844 | Low | -4.09 |
| 2026-09-03 | Imports | 28.7 | 30.0 | -0.533 | Low | -3.83 |
| 2026-09-03 | Imports | 28.7 | 30.0 | -0.533 | Low | -3.83 |
| 2026-10-15 | Auto Sales YoY | -24.3 | -15.0 | -0.195 | Low | -3.69 |
| 2026-10-05 | Producer Price Index YoY | 27.38 | 28.0 | +0.223 | Low | +3.35 |
| 2026-09-16 | Auto Production YoY | 1.5 | -11.0 | +0.329 | Low | +3.19 |
| 2026-09-03 | CPI YoY | 31.51 | 31.62 | +0.212 | Medium | +3.05 |
| 2026-09-11 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.2 | -0.5 | +0.328 | Low | +2.83 |
| 2026-08-17 | Auto Sales YoY | -25.0 | -9.0 | -0.559 | Low | -2.71 |
| 2026-08-21 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -0.3 | -5.0 | +0.483 | Low | +2.57 |
| 2026-09-03 | Producer Price Index YoY | 27.95 | 27.0 | -0.354 | Low | -2.54 |
| 2026-10-21 | Capacity Utilization | 74.5 | 74.3 | +0.113 | Low | +2.46 |
| 2026-09-03 | Balance of Trade | -5.24 | -7.0 | +0.151 | Medium | +2.17 |
| 2026-09-03 | Balance of Trade | -5.24 | -7.0 | +0.151 | Medium | +2.17 |
| 2026-09-29 | Economic Confidence Index | 101.3 | 100.6 | +0.152 | Low | +1.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | Business Confidence | 102.0 | 102.5 | -0.085 | Medium | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-03 | Exports | 23.5 | 23.0 | +0.249 | Low | +1.79 |
| 2026-09-03 | Exports | 23.5 | 23.0 | +0.249 | Low | +1.79 |
| 2026-08-20 | Central Government Debt | 15.463 | 15.2 | -0.315 | Low | -1.64 |
| 2026-08-03 | Balance of Trade | -7.4 | -11.8 | +0.224 | Medium | +1.57 |
| 2026-08-21 | Capacity Utilization | 73.5 | 74.0 | -0.284 | Low | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | Auto Production YoY | 5.1 | 4.0 | +0.080 | Low | +1.51 |
| 2026-08-03 | CPI MoM | 1.78 | 1.83 | +0.210 | Medium | +1.47 |
| 2026-08-28 | Economic Confidence Index | 100.6 | 99.6 | +0.219 | Low | +1.37 |
| 2026-08-21 | Consumer Confidence | 90.8 | 90.0 | +0.127 | Medium | +1.35 |
| 2026-09-03 | Inflation Rate YoY | 31.51 | 31.62 | +0.094 | Medium | +1.34 |
| 2026-10-05 | Imports | 31.21 | 31.0 | +0.083 | Low | +1.25 |
| 2026-09-03 | Balance of Trade | -5.24 | -7.34 | +0.172 | Low | +1.24 |
| 2026-09-21 | Capacity Utilization | 74.2 | 74.0 | +0.114 | Low | +1.24 |
| 2026-09-07 | Treasury Cash Balance | 49.816 | 75.1 | -0.153 | Low | -1.21 |
| 2026-07-31 | Tourism Revenues | 15.9 | 18.0 | -0.347 | Low | -1.14 |
| 2026-09-16 | Auto Sales YoY | -20.3 | -15.0 | -0.111 | Low | -1.08 |
| 2026-10-20 | Central Government Debt | 16.202 | 16.247 | +0.050 | Low | +1.07 |
| 2026-07-30 | Economic Confidence Index | 99.8 | 98.4 | +0.311 | Low | +0.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.84 | 1.93 | +0.060 | Medium | +0.87 |
| 2026-08-10 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.8 | -0.187 | Low | -0.77 |
| 2026-08-03 | CPI YoY | 31.75 | 31.8 | +0.096 | Medium | +0.67 |
| 2026-09-21 | Central Government Debt | 15.894 | 15.948 | +0.062 | Low | +0.67 |
| 2026-08-03 | Exports | 25.6 | 25.2 | +0.182 | Low | +0.64 |
| 2026-07-30 | Participation Rate | 52.9 | 52.8 | +0.187 | Low | +0.60 |
| 2026-07-31 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -4.02 | -3.0 | -0.175 | Low | -0.57 |
| 2026-10-05 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.07 | 2.5 | +0.037 | Low | +0.56 |
| 2026-08-03 | Producer Price Index YoY | 27.83 | 27.4 | -0.158 | Low | -0.55 |
| 2026-08-21 | Business Confidence | 102.8 | 102.5 | +0.051 | Medium | +0.54 |
| 2026-09-03 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.57 | 2.0 | -0.062 | Low | -0.44 |
| 2026-08-11 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | +0.094 | Low | +0.40 |
| 2026-08-13 | Current Account | -4.194 | -5.0 | +0.091 | Low | +0.40 |
| 2026-08-03 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.52 | 1.0 | -0.112 | Low | -0.39 |
| 2026-08-31 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.1 | 1.0 | +0.027 | Medium | +0.36 |
| 2026-08-03 | Inflation Rate YoY | 31.75 | 31.8 | +0.042 | Medium | +0.30 |
| 2026-08-03 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.78 | 1.83 | +0.035 | Medium | +0.25 |
| 2026-08-28 | Imports | 32.9 | 33.0 | -0.037 | Low | -0.23 |
| 2026-09-30 | Exports | 23.47 | 23.5 | -0.015 | Low | -0.20 |
| 2026-09-11 | Retail Sales YoY | 10.4 | 11.0 | -0.016 | Low | -0.14 |
| 2026-10-12 | Retail Sales YoY | 10.1 | 9.9 | +0.006 | Low | +0.11 |
| 2026-07-31 | Exports | 24.9 | 24.94 | -0.018 | Low | -0.06 |
| 2026-08-28 | Balance of Trade | -7.34 | -7.4 | +0.005 | Medium | +0.06 |
| 2026-09-30 | Imports | 28.71 | 28.7 | +0.004 | Low | +0.06 |
| 2026-08-11 | Retail Sales YoY | 11.8 | 12.0 | -0.005 | Low | -0.02 |
| 2026-07-31 | Balance of Trade | -10.37 | -10.4 | +0.002 | Medium | +0.01 |
| 2026-07-31 | Imports | 35.3 | 35.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | Exports | 25.6 | 25.6 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | Industrial Production MoM | -1.0 | -1.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | TCMB Interest Rate Decision | 37.0 | 37.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | Overnight Borrowing Rate | 35.5 | 35.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | Overnight Lending Rate | 40.0 | 40.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | Balance of Trade | -5.24 | -5.24 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | TCMB Interest Rate Decision | 36.0 | 36.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |