— Know what they know.
/
Not Investment Advice
Economic Surprises › Turkey
Turkey -2.8 ▬ vs 1w ago (-3.0)
Turkey economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-2.8
1 Week Ago
-3.0
Releases (90d)
87
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with BIST 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (87 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-02-27 Participation Rate 52.1 53.9 -3.498 Low -51.41
2026-03-10 Industrial Production MoM -2.8 0.4 -1.669 Low -31.62
2026-02-27 Unemployment Rate 8.1 8.6 +1.009 Medium +29.65
2026-02-03 CPI 4.84 4.32 -1.659 Medium -28.01
2026-02-03 CPI 4.84 4.32 -1.659 Medium -28.01
2026-02-11 Retail Sales MoM 1.7 -0.2 +2.716 Low +27.57
2026-02-10 Industrial Production YoY -2.1 1.7 -1.036 Medium -20.56
2026-03-03 Imports 30.3 28.5 +0.873 Low +14.06
2026-03-03 Producer Price Index YoY 27.56 25.75 -0.691 Low -11.14
2026-01-05 CPI 0.89 0.98 +1.266 Medium +10.93
2026-02-17 Auto Sales YoY 9.8 -8.0 +0.825 Low +9.62
2026-02-03 Inflation Rate YoY 30.65 30.0 -0.564 Medium -9.53
2026-03-16 Budget Balance 24.37 -290.0 +0.435 Low +9.46
2026-02-02 Exports 20.3 22.1 -1.125 Low -9.27
2026-02-20 Business Confidence 104.1 102.0 +0.344 Medium +8.59
2026-03-12 Current Account -6.807 -4.15 -0.412 Low -8.17
2026-03-03 Exports 21.1 21.8 -0.443 Low -7.15
2026-03-04 Balance of Trade -9.2 -6.7 -0.213 Medium -7.02
2026-03-02 Gross Domestic Product YoY 3.4 3.5 -0.218 Medium -6.88
2026-03-02 Gross Domestic Product YoY 3.4 3.5 -0.218 Medium -6.88
2026-03-02 Gross Domestic Product YoY 3.4 3.5 -0.218 Medium -6.88
2026-03-03 Balance of Trade -9.2 -6.7 -0.213 Medium -6.86
2026-03-11 Retail Sales MoM 2.4 1.1 +0.338 Low +6.55
2026-02-17 Auto Production YoY -5.2 -2.0 -0.536 Low -6.25
2026-02-19 Consumer Confidence 85.7 84.2 +0.246 Medium +6.02
2026-01-13 Retail Sales MoM 1.5 0.3 +1.143 Low +5.94
2026-03-03 CPI 2.96 3.0 +0.184 Medium +5.92
2026-03-02 Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI 49.3 48.6 +0.368 Low +5.79
2026-02-02 Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI 48.1 49.4 -0.672 Low -5.54
2026-02-03 CPI 30.65 30.0 -0.299 Medium -5.04
2026-03-02 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.4 1.0 -0.159 Medium -4.99
2026-02-20 Capacity Utilization 73.5 74.2 -0.380 Low -4.75
2026-03-02 GDP Growth Rate YoY 3.4 3.5 -0.146 Medium -4.60
2026-03-16 Auto Production YoY 0.6 1.5 -0.201 Low -4.37
2026-02-02 Imports 28.7 29.8 -0.510 Low -4.21
2026-01-30 Tourist Arrivals YoY 4.99 2.5 +0.517 Low +3.98
2026-03-10 Industrial Production YoY -1.8 -1.5 -0.093 Medium -3.51
2026-03-16 Auto Sales YoY -3.0 -5.0 +0.148 Low +3.23
2026-02-13 Current Account -7.253 -5.2 -0.254 Low -2.70
2026-03-03 Producer Price Index MoM 2.43 1.35 -0.166 Low -2.67
2026-02-03 Inflation Rate MoM 4.84 4.32 -0.150 Medium -2.53
2026-02-26 Economic Confidence Index 100.7 99.9 +0.168 Low +2.42
2026-01-30 Tourism Revenues 15.2 14.0 +0.249 Low +1.91
2026-01-19 Auto Production YoY 0.7 12.0 -0.315 Low -1.88
2026-02-10 Industrial Production MoM 1.2 5.0 -0.159 Low -1.57
2026-02-20 Tourist Arrivals YoY 3.48 2.8 +0.126 Low +1.57
2025-12-30 Unemployment Rate 8.6 8.5 -0.204 Medium -1.54
2026-01-05 Inflation Rate MoM 0.89 1.0 +0.137 Medium +1.18
2026-01-13 Current Account -3.996 -3.0 -0.213 Low -1.11
2025-12-25 Capacity Utilization 74.4 75.0 -0.322 Low -1.08
2026-03-11 Retail Sales YoY 18.8 15.8 +0.055 Low +1.06
2025-12-22 Tourist Arrivals YoY 2.61 7.0 -0.325 Low -1.02
2026-02-02 Balance of Trade -8.4 -7.7 -0.052 Medium -0.85
2026-01-05 Inflation Rate YoY 30.89 31.0 +0.092 Medium +0.80
2026-01-09 Industrial Production YoY 2.4 2.9 -0.080 Medium -0.76
2025-12-30 Economic Confidence Index 99.5 98.6 +0.192 Low +0.72
2026-02-11 Retail Sales YoY 16.3 13.2 +0.068 Low +0.69
2026-01-19 Auto Sales YoY 12.6 17.0 -0.096 Low -0.57
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate MoM 2.96 3.0 +0.017 Medium +0.53
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate YoY 31.53 31.55 +0.017 Medium +0.53
2025-12-22 Central Government Debt 13.325 13.2 -0.167 Low -0.52
2025-12-31 Exports 22.5 22.7 -0.122 Low -0.47
2026-01-30 Imports 35.7 35.8 -0.039 Low -0.30
2026-02-03 Producer Price Index YoY 27.17 27.25 +0.029 Low +0.24
2025-12-25 Business Confidence 100.8 101.0 -0.033 Medium -0.22
2026-01-05 Producer Price Index MoM 0.75 0.6 -0.052 Low -0.22
2026-01-23 Consumer Confidence 83.7 83.8 -0.016 Medium -0.22
2026-01-02 Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI 48.9 49.0 -0.052 Low -0.21
2025-12-31 Balance of Trade -8.0 -7.8 -0.015 Medium -0.11
2026-01-30 Balance of Trade -9.3 -9.4 +0.006 Medium +0.09
2026-01-05 Producer Price Index YoY 27.67 27.7 +0.011 Low +0.05
2026-01-06 Balance of Trade -9.4 -9.3 -0.006 Medium -0.05
2026-02-03 Producer Price Index MoM 2.67 2.75 +0.006 Low +0.05
2026-01-13 Retail Sales YoY 14.2 14.5 -0.006 Low -0.03
2025-12-30 Participation Rate 53.8 53.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2025-12-31 Imports 30.5 30.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-09 Industrial Production MoM 2.5 2.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-22 Overnight Lending Rate 40.0 40.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-22 TCMB Interest Rate Decision 37.0 37.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-22 Overnight Borrowing Rate 35.5 35.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-30 Exports 26.4 26.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-26 Exports 20.3 20.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-26 Imports 28.7 28.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-26 Balance of Trade -8.4 -8.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-12 TCMB Interest Rate Decision 37.0 37.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-12 Overnight Borrowing Rate 35.5 35.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-12 Overnight Lending Rate 40.0 40.0 +0.000 Low +0.00

Sign in to InsiderStreet

You'll also get our free weekly newsletter with
smart money signals, market insights, and alpha ideas.
Unsubscribe anytime.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms