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Economic Surprises › Turkey
Turkey +1.7 ▬ vs 1w ago (+2.2)
Turkey economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.7
1 Week Ago
+2.2
Releases (90d)
99
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with BIST 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (99 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-06-15 Industrial Production YoY 6.0 -0.6 +4.507 Medium +83.44
2026-06-16 Auto Production YoY -32.8 2.5 -4.020 Low -38.08
2026-07-03 Imports 35.3 28.8 +2.698 Low +37.85
2026-06-16 Auto Sales YoY -22.5 2.0 -3.717 Low -35.21
2026-07-03 Exports 24.9 21.0 +2.062 Low +28.94
2026-07-13 Retail Sales MoM 2.4 0.3 +1.622 Low +28.67
2026-05-11 Retail Sales MoM 2.6 0.1 +5.792 Low +23.89
2026-07-01 Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI 47.1 49.9 -1.396 Low -18.71
2026-06-15 Industrial Production MoM 3.7 0.4 +1.722 Low +15.94
2026-06-01 Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI 49.8 45.9 +2.114 Low +14.16
2026-07-10 Industrial Production YoY 0.0 5.1 -0.410 Medium -13.52
2026-05-04 CPI YoY 32.37 31.25 -1.925 Medium -13.51
2026-05-04 CPI MoM 4.18 3.28 -1.868 Medium -13.11
2026-07-23 Consumer Confidence 89.8 88.0 +0.291 Medium +12.96
2026-07-16 Budget Balance 114.2 -200.0 +0.639 Low +12.11
2026-05-22 Tourist Arrivals YoY -9.44 3.0 -2.090 Low -11.11
2026-07-22 Business Confidence 102.2 103.7 -0.248 Medium -10.80
2026-07-20 Central Government Debt 14.992 15.394 +0.468 Low +9.73
2026-07-22 Capacity Utilization 73.9 74.7 -0.443 Low -9.64
2026-07-03 Producer Price Index YoY 28.09 30.0 +0.630 Low +8.85
2026-07-17 Auto Production YoY 15.5 -35.0 +0.411 Low +7.96
2026-06-01 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.5 2.7 -0.590 Medium -7.90
2026-06-04 Participation Rate 52.4 53.0 -1.095 Low -7.86
2026-07-07 Treasury Cash Balance 50.759 -400.0 +0.505 Low +7.78
2026-07-16 Auto Production YoY 15.5 -35.0 +0.411 Low +7.78
2026-04-29 Participation Rate 52.8 54.1 -2.325 Low -7.27
2026-05-04 Exports 25.4 21.5 +2.014 Low +7.07
2026-06-05 CPI MoM 1.71 1.6 -0.468 Medium -6.88
2026-06-19 Business Confidence 103.5 101.5 +0.338 Medium +6.86
2026-06-22 Consumer Confidence 87.9 86.0 +0.314 Medium +6.84
2026-06-04 Imports 28.1 30.5 -0.941 Low -6.75
2026-05-04 Inflation Rate YoY 32.37 31.25 -0.950 Medium -6.66
2026-05-04 Imports 33.91 29.5 +1.787 Low +6.27
2026-07-13 Current Account -1.459 -0.96 -0.341 Low -6.03
2026-06-30 Unemployment Rate 8.2 8.1 -0.218 Medium -5.72
2026-07-03 Balance of Trade -10.4 -7.8 -0.196 Medium -5.49
2026-05-08 Industrial Production YoY -1.1 1.5 -0.710 Medium -5.46
2026-04-29 Unemployment Rate 8.1 8.5 +0.833 Medium +5.20
2026-06-01 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2.5 2.7 -0.384 Medium -5.14
2026-05-04 Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI 45.7 48.2 -1.291 Low -4.53
2026-05-22 Business Confidence 103.3 100.8 +0.425 Medium +4.52
2026-06-22 Tourist Arrivals YoY -3.58 -2.0 -0.398 Low -4.33
2026-07-17 Auto Sales YoY -11.4 -28.0 +0.180 Low +3.49
2026-07-16 Auto Sales YoY -11.4 -28.0 +0.180 Low +3.41
2026-06-01 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.9 -0.237 Medium -3.18
2026-07-10 Industrial Production MoM -2.9 -1.6 -0.170 Low -2.80
2026-07-13 Retail Sales YoY 13.7 9.0 +0.154 Low +2.72
2026-06-05 CPI YoY 32.61 32.5 -0.182 Medium -2.67
2026-05-04 Inflation Rate MoM 4.18 3.28 -0.349 Medium -2.45
2026-06-30 Participation Rate 52.8 52.7 +0.184 Low +2.40
2026-07-03 Producer Price Index MoM 1.8 1.0 -0.170 Low -2.38
2026-06-04 Balance of Trade -5.6 -7.7 +0.160 Medium +2.30
2026-05-05 Auto Sales YoY -1.0 1.0 -0.607 Low -2.18
2026-06-16 Retail Sales MoM -1.7 -0.9 -0.206 Low -1.95
2026-05-20 Central Government Debt 14.765 14.5 -0.328 Low -1.66
2026-06-22 Central Government Debt 14.989 15.104 +0.137 Low +1.49
2026-05-08 Industrial Production MoM -0.8 1.1 -0.361 Low -1.39
2026-06-05 Inflation Rate YoY 32.61 32.5 -0.090 Medium -1.32
2026-06-05 Inflation Rate MoM 1.71 1.6 -0.087 Medium -1.28
2026-06-16 Retail Sales YoY 11.4 19.0 -0.118 Low -1.12
2026-06-29 Economic Confidence Index 98.9 98.5 +0.087 Low +1.11
2026-05-18 Auto Production YoY 5.3 3.0 +0.218 Low +1.06
2026-06-04 Exports 22.5 22.8 -0.146 Low -1.05
2026-05-25 Economic Confidence Index 97.2 96.5 +0.156 Low +0.89
2026-05-11 Retail Sales YoY 21.2 13.2 +0.178 Low +0.74
2026-04-30 Tourist Arrivals YoY 5.0 3.5 +0.216 Low +0.69
2026-06-05 Producer Price Index YoY 28.93 29.2 +0.092 Low +0.67
2026-04-29 Economic Confidence Index 96.4 97.3 -0.199 Low -0.62
2026-06-19 Capacity Utilization 74.5 74.4 +0.056 Low +0.56
2026-04-30 Tourism Revenues 9.9 10.5 -0.168 Low -0.54
2026-07-03 CPI YoY 32.11 32.1 -0.017 Medium -0.47
2026-06-12 Current Account -5.695 -6.2 +0.053 Low +0.46
2026-05-18 Consumer Confidence 85.8 86.0 -0.033 Medium -0.32
2026-05-22 Capacity Utilization 74.2 74.1 +0.056 Low +0.30
2026-05-04 Balance of Trade -8.51 -8.0 -0.037 Medium -0.26
2026-07-03 Inflation Rate YoY 32.11 32.1 -0.008 Medium -0.23
2026-05-04 Producer Price Index MoM 3.2 2.6 -0.049 Low -0.17
2026-06-05 Producer Price Index MoM 2.75 3.0 +0.018 Low +0.13
2026-04-30 Imports 33.1 33.2 -0.036 Low -0.12
2026-05-04 Producer Price Index YoY 28.59 28.5 -0.031 Low -0.11
2026-04-30 Balance of Trade -11.2 -11.3 +0.005 Medium +0.03
2026-06-30 Balance of Trade -5.61 -5.6 -0.001 Medium -0.03
2026-05-13 Current Account -9.672 -9.6 -0.005 Low -0.02
2026-05-22 Imports 33.9 33.91 -0.004 Low -0.02
2026-06-15 Budget Balance -298.2 -300.0 +0.002 Low +0.02
2026-05-22 Balance of Trade -8.5 -8.51 +0.001 Medium +0.01
2026-04-30 Exports 21.9 21.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-22 Exports 25.4 25.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-04 Unemployment Rate 8.2 8.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-11 Overnight Borrowing Rate 35.5 35.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-11 TCMB Interest Rate Decision 37.0 37.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-11 Overnight Lending Rate 40.0 40.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-30 Imports 28.1 28.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-30 Exports 22.5 22.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-03 Inflation Rate MoM 0.99 0.99 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-03 CPI MoM 0.99 0.99 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-23 Overnight Lending Rate 40.0 40.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-23 Overnight Borrowing Rate 35.5 35.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-23 TCMB Interest Rate Decision 37.0 37.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms