Turkey
+0.1
▬
vs 1w ago (+0.3)
Turkey economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+0.1
1 Week Ago
+0.3
Releases (90d)
94
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with BIST 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Retail Sales MoM +5.79z
- Exports +4.74z
- Exports +2.02z
- Industrial Production YoY +1.72z
- Imports +1.84z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Participation Rate -2.31z
- Inflation Rate YoY -0.94z
- Industrial Production YoY -0.80z
- Imports -3.77z
- Auto Production YoY -2.58z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (94 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Retail Sales MoM | 2.6 | 0.1 | +5.788 | Low | +114.85 |
| 2026-03-31 | Exports | 30.1 | 21.1 | +4.744 | Low | +36.50 |
| 2026-04-29 | Participation Rate | 52.8 | 54.1 | -2.305 | Low | -34.66 |
| 2026-05-04 | Exports | 25.4 | 21.5 | +2.017 | Low | +34.05 |
| 2026-04-10 | Industrial Production YoY | 2.2 | -0.8 | +1.723 | Medium | +33.41 |
| 2026-05-04 | Inflation Rate YoY | 32.37 | 31.25 | -0.939 | Medium | -31.70 |
| 2026-05-04 | Imports | 33.91 | 29.5 | +1.838 | Low | +31.03 |
| 2026-05-08 | Industrial Production YoY | -1.1 | 1.5 | -0.796 | Medium | -29.49 |
| 2026-03-31 | Imports | 21.0 | 30.3 | -3.774 | Low | -29.04 |
| 2026-04-16 | Auto Production YoY | -14.1 | 2.0 | -2.581 | Low | -28.75 |
| 2026-04-29 | Unemployment Rate | 8.1 | 8.5 | +0.824 | Medium | +24.79 |
| 2026-05-04 | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 45.7 | 48.2 | -1.327 | Low | -22.40 |
| 2026-03-31 | Participation Rate | 52.6 | 54.0 | -2.487 | Low | -19.14 |
| 2026-04-16 | Auto Sales YoY | -12.7 | -3.0 | -1.192 | Low | -13.27 |
| 2026-04-03 | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.08 | 24.25 | -1.550 | Low | -12.78 |
| 2026-05-05 | Auto Sales YoY | -1.0 | 1.0 | -0.737 | Low | -12.74 |
| 2026-02-27 | Participation Rate | 52.1 | 53.9 | -3.203 | Low | -11.77 |
| 2026-05-04 | Inflation Rate MoM | 4.18 | 3.28 | -0.345 | Medium | -11.65 |
| 2026-03-10 | Industrial Production MoM | -2.8 | 0.4 | -1.691 | Low | -8.01 |
| 2026-05-20 | Central Government Debt | 14.765 | 14.5 | -0.326 | Low | -7.97 |
| 2026-02-27 | Unemployment Rate | 8.1 | 8.6 | +1.019 | Medium | +7.48 |
| 2026-04-03 | Inflation Rate YoY | 30.87 | 31.4 | +0.442 | Medium | +7.29 |
| 2026-05-08 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.8 | 1.1 | -0.365 | Low | -6.76 |
| 2026-04-02 | Imports | 33.2 | 31.2 | +0.788 | Low | +6.35 |
| 2026-04-02 | Exports | 21.9 | 23.5 | -0.757 | Low | -6.10 |
| 2026-05-18 | Auto Production YoY | 5.3 | 3.0 | +0.246 | Low | +5.73 |
| 2026-03-23 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | -2.08 | 3.0 | -0.884 | Low | -5.66 |
| 2026-04-10 | Industrial Production MoM | 2.6 | 0.7 | +0.574 | Low | +5.56 |
| 2026-04-01 | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 49.2 | -0.676 | Low | -5.32 |
| 2026-04-21 | Capacity Utilization | 73.8 | 73.1 | +0.390 | Low | +4.87 |
| 2026-04-13 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.463 | Low | -4.81 |
| 2026-04-02 | Balance of Trade | -11.3 | -7.7 | -0.272 | Medium | -4.38 |
| 2026-03-23 | Consumer Confidence | 85.0 | 83.0 | +0.339 | Medium | +4.33 |
| 2026-04-22 | Consumer Confidence | 85.5 | 84.5 | +0.166 | Medium | +4.26 |
| 2026-03-30 | Economic Confidence Index | 97.9 | 100.2 | -0.487 | Low | -3.66 |
| 2026-05-11 | Retail Sales YoY | 21.2 | 13.2 | +0.176 | Low | +3.50 |
| 2026-04-30 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 5.0 | 3.5 | +0.224 | Low | +3.44 |
| 2026-04-03 | Inflation Rate MoM | 1.94 | 2.32 | +0.206 | Medium | +3.40 |
| 2026-03-03 | Imports | 30.3 | 28.5 | +0.777 | Low | +3.13 |
| 2026-04-29 | Economic Confidence Index | 96.4 | 97.3 | -0.196 | Low | -2.95 |
| 2026-03-03 | Producer Price Index YoY | 27.56 | 25.75 | -0.690 | Low | -2.78 |
| 2026-04-30 | Tourism Revenues | 9.9 | 10.5 | -0.168 | Low | -2.59 |
| 2026-03-16 | Budget Balance | 24.37 | -290.0 | +0.435 | Low | +2.37 |
| 2026-03-23 | Central Government Debt | 14.396 | 14.7 | +0.369 | Low | +2.36 |
| 2026-02-20 | Business Confidence | 104.1 | 102.0 | +0.348 | Medium | +2.17 |
| 2026-03-24 | Business Confidence | 101.0 | 102.0 | -0.166 | Medium | -2.17 |
| 2026-04-21 | Business Confidence | 100.6 | 100.1 | +0.084 | Medium | +2.11 |
| 2026-03-12 | Current Account | -6.807 | -4.15 | -0.416 | Low | -2.07 |
| 2026-03-04 | Balance of Trade | -9.2 | -6.7 | -0.217 | Medium | -1.79 |
| 2026-03-03 | Balance of Trade | -9.2 | -6.7 | -0.217 | Medium | -1.75 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.218 | Medium | -1.72 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.218 | Medium | -1.72 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.218 | Medium | -1.72 |
| 2026-04-03 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.3 | 1.2 | -0.192 | Low | -1.58 |
| 2026-05-18 | Consumer Confidence | 85.8 | 86.0 | -0.033 | Medium | -1.53 |
| 2026-03-03 | CPI | 2.96 | 3.0 | +0.184 | Medium | +1.48 |
| 2026-03-02 | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 49.3 | 48.6 | +0.369 | Low | +1.45 |
| 2026-03-03 | Exports | 21.1 | 21.8 | -0.357 | Low | -1.44 |
| 2026-03-11 | Retail Sales MoM | 2.4 | 1.1 | +0.274 | Low | +1.33 |
| 2026-03-02 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 1.0 | -0.159 | Medium | -1.25 |
| 2026-05-04 | Balance of Trade | -8.51 | -8.0 | -0.037 | Medium | -1.25 |
| 2026-02-20 | Capacity Utilization | 73.5 | 74.2 | -0.384 | Low | -1.20 |
| 2026-03-02 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.146 | Medium | -1.15 |
| 2026-03-24 | Capacity Utilization | 73.3 | 73.0 | +0.167 | Low | +1.09 |
| 2026-03-16 | Auto Production YoY | 0.6 | 1.5 | -0.192 | Low | -1.05 |
| 2026-03-10 | Industrial Production YoY | -1.8 | -1.5 | -0.092 | Medium | -0.87 |
| 2026-05-04 | Producer Price Index MoM | 3.2 | 2.6 | -0.048 | Low | -0.82 |
| 2026-03-16 | Auto Sales YoY | -3.0 | -5.0 | +0.147 | Low | +0.80 |
| 2026-04-20 | Central Government Debt | 14.447 | 14.5 | +0.065 | Low | +0.80 |
| 2026-03-03 | Producer Price Index MoM | 2.43 | 1.35 | -0.168 | Low | -0.68 |
| 2026-02-26 | Economic Confidence Index | 100.7 | 99.9 | +0.170 | Low | +0.61 |
| 2026-04-30 | Imports | 33.1 | 33.2 | -0.037 | Low | -0.57 |
| 2026-05-04 | Producer Price Index YoY | 28.59 | 28.5 | -0.031 | Low | -0.52 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 3.48 | 2.8 | +0.127 | Low | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-11 | Retail Sales YoY | 18.8 | 15.8 | +0.055 | Low | +0.27 |
| 2026-04-13 | Retail Sales YoY | 15.6 | 14.5 | +0.022 | Low | +0.23 |
| 2026-03-31 | Balance of Trade | -9.0 | -9.2 | +0.013 | Medium | +0.19 |
| 2026-04-30 | Balance of Trade | -11.2 | -11.3 | +0.005 | Medium | +0.16 |
| 2026-03-03 | Inflation Rate MoM | 2.96 | 3.0 | +0.017 | Medium | +0.14 |
| 2026-04-07 | Treasury Cash Balance | -279.578 | -270.0 | -0.016 | Low | -0.14 |
| 2026-03-03 | Inflation Rate YoY | 31.53 | 31.55 | +0.017 | Medium | +0.13 |
| 2026-05-13 | Current Account | -9.672 | -9.6 | -0.005 | Low | -0.10 |
| 2026-02-26 | Exports | 20.3 | 20.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-26 | Imports | 28.7 | 28.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-02-26 | Balance of Trade | -8.4 | -8.4 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | TCMB Interest Rate Decision | 37.0 | 37.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | Overnight Borrowing Rate | 35.5 | 35.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | Overnight Lending Rate | 40.0 | 40.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | Unemployment Rate | 8.5 | 8.5 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Current Account | -7.501 | -7.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | TCMB Interest Rate Decision | 37.0 | 37.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Overnight Borrowing Rate | 35.5 | 35.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Overnight Lending Rate | 40.0 | 40.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Exports | 21.9 | 21.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |