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Economic Surprises › South Africa
South Africa -1.8 ▬ vs 1w ago (-2.7)
South Africa economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-1.8
1 Week Ago
-2.7
Releases (90d)
82
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with JSE Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (82 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-09-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 75.95 72.4 +1.967 Low +44.84
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate YoY 4.3 4.5 +1.391 Medium +40.89
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate YoY 5.0 4.7 -1.998 Medium -30.75
2026-07-23 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.25 -1.627 Medium -25.63
2026-09-10 Current Account -205.5 -85.0 -0.800 Low -19.54
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.2 4.0 -1.228 Low -18.05
2026-09-08 GDP Growth Rate QoQ -0.2 -0.1 -0.362 Medium -16.87
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.2 -1.138 Low -16.73
2026-09-10 Manufacturing Production MoM 2.2 -0.7 +0.599 Low +14.63
2026-08-27 Producer Price Index MoM -1.0 -0.4 +0.791 Low +13.98
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.446 Medium +13.10
2026-07-23 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.25 -1.627 Low -12.81
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.2 -1.518 Low -11.68
2026-07-23 Building Permits YoY -13.1 -2.5 -1.455 Low -11.45
2026-07-23 Prime Overdraft Rate 10.5 10.75 -1.364 Low -10.74
2026-08-25 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.4 -0.5 -0.615 Low -10.39
2026-09-08 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.9 1.2 -0.219 Medium -10.22
2026-09-02 Business Confidence 38.0 34.0 +0.247 Medium +10.01
2026-09-10 Manufacturing Production YoY 1.1 -1.6 +0.403 Low +9.85
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.8 4.3 +2.857 Low +9.79
2026-08-13 Gold Production YoY 6.2 -1.0 +0.717 Low +9.17
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate YoY 4.5 4.7 +1.332 Medium +9.13
2026-08-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 73.45 72.0 +0.808 Low +9.00
2026-06-30 Inflation Expectations 4.2 3.8 -1.707 Low -7.90
2026-08-20 Building Permits YoY 30.5 12.4 +0.501 Low +7.53
2026-07-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 74.11 76.4 -1.203 Low -6.54
2026-08-31 M3 Money Supply YoY 8.57 9.2 -0.334 Low -6.48
2026-09-10 Gold Production YoY -7.4 4.5 -0.263 Low -6.44
2026-08-11 Unemployment Rate 33.6 33.1 -0.253 Medium -6.18
2026-08-11 Unemployment Rate 33.6 33.1 -0.253 Medium -6.18
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 2.0 +0.869 Medium +5.96
2026-09-01 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 45.8 47.0 -0.295 Low -5.85
2026-09-10 Mining Production YoY -7.5 -2.8 -0.218 Low -5.33
2026-08-03 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 46.8 49.0 -0.519 Low -5.27
2026-07-30 Producer Price Index MoM -0.1 1.8 +0.557 Low +5.15
2026-07-28 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -0.3 0.5 -0.547 Low -4.83
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.1 4.0 -0.614 Low -4.73
2026-06-30 Balance of Trade -1.79 19.0 -0.456 Medium -4.22
2026-07-14 Mining Production YoY -5.4 1.5 -0.598 Low -3.82
2026-07-14 Mining Production MoM -5.2 2.9 -0.596 Low -3.81
2026-08-18 SACCI Business Confidence 125.4 123.8 +0.248 Low +3.56
2026-07-31 Balance of Trade 17.75 32.0 -0.185 Medium -3.51
2026-08-18 SACCI Business Confidence 123.5 125.0 -0.230 Low -3.30
2026-07-01 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 47.3 50.3 -0.689 Low -3.26
2026-06-23 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.8 1.7 -0.704 Low -2.77
2026-08-11 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.9 -1.6 +0.226 Low +2.76
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.8 +0.167 Medium +2.57
2026-08-13 Mining Production MoM 0.3 3.2 -0.193 Low -2.47
2026-08-11 Unemployed Persons 8.481 8.3 -0.192 Low -2.35
2026-08-11 Unemployed Persons 8.481 8.3 -0.192 Low -2.35
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 1.6 +0.664 Low +2.28
2026-08-28 Budget Balance -161.58 -130.0 -0.117 Low -2.11
2026-08-13 Mining Production YoY -4.0 -1.8 -0.159 Low -2.03
2026-07-29 Private Sector Credit YoY 7.8 8.5 -0.213 Low -1.93
2026-08-19 Retail Sales YoY 1.6 2.3 -0.128 Low -1.88
2026-07-30 Budget Balance 80.13 57.0 +0.195 Low +1.80
2026-08-27 Producer Price Index YoY 5.7 6.1 +0.102 Low +1.80
2026-09-10 Mining Production MoM -1.9 -1.5 -0.057 Low -1.39
2026-06-17 Retail Sales YoY 1.3 0.7 +0.360 Low +1.23
2026-07-30 Producer Price Index YoY 7.5 8.2 +0.132 Low +1.22
2026-06-25 Producer Price Index MoM 2.6 1.7 -0.279 Low -1.15
2026-06-30 Private Sector Credit YoY 8.57 9.4 -0.229 Low -1.06
2026-06-25 Producer Price Index YoY 7.8 6.7 -0.254 Low -1.05
2026-06-30 Budget Balance -14.62 -10.0 -0.222 Low -1.03
2026-06-17 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 -1.0 +0.290 Low +0.99
2026-07-22 Retail Sales MoM 0.1 0.6 -0.127 Low -0.98
2026-08-31 Balance of Trade 20.14 19.0 +0.025 Medium +0.97
2026-08-19 Retail Sales MoM -0.6 -1.0 +0.061 Low +0.90
2026-08-11 Manufacturing Production YoY -1.7 -2.3 +0.062 Low +0.76
2026-06-23 Consumer Confidence -19.0 -16.0 -0.191 Low -0.75
2026-07-09 Manufacturing Production YoY -4.3 -3.2 -0.082 Low -0.47
2026-07-29 M3 Money Supply YoY 9.31 9.4 -0.047 Low -0.42
2026-07-22 Retail Sales YoY 2.3 2.5 -0.034 Low -0.26
2026-06-18 Building Permits YoY 16.9 15.0 +0.043 Low +0.15
2026-07-09 Manufacturing Production MoM 1.1 1.3 -0.022 Low -0.13
2026-07-14 Gold Production YoY -4.3 -5.0 +0.014 Low +0.09
2026-07-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 54.48 52.0 +0.015 Low +0.07
2026-08-31 Private Sector Credit YoY 7.41 7.4 +0.004 Low +0.07
2026-08-03 Total New Vehicle Sales 57.71 57.0 +0.004 Low +0.04
2026-09-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 57.9 58.0 -0.001 Low -0.01
2026-09-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 57.9 58.0 -0.001 Low -0.01
2026-09-03 S&P Global PMI 50.5 50.5 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms