— Know what they know.
/
Not Investment Advice
Economic Surprises › South Africa

South Africa Economic Surprise Index

+7.8 ▲ vs 1w ago (+5.0)
South Africa economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+7.8
1 Week Ago
+5.0
Releases (90d)
81
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with JSE Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (81 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-10-21 Inflation Rate YoY 4.5 4.7 +1.335 Medium +58.12
2026-09-30 Balance of Trade 20.47 3.5 +2.003 Medium +53.67
2026-10-19 SACCI Business Confidence 135.1 123.3 +1.808 Low +37.57
2026-10-21 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.0 4.3 +1.713 Low +37.29
2026-10-19 SACCI Business Confidence 134.3 124.0 +1.569 Low +32.61
2026-09-23 Inflation Rate MoM 0.0 0.3 +1.338 Medium +30.49
2026-10-27 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM 1.1 0.3 +0.914 Low +22.84
2026-10-08 Manufacturing Production YoY -4.3 0.9 -1.376 Low -22.18
2026-10-22 Building Permits YoY -4.3 3.2 -0.867 Low -19.31
2026-09-23 Inflation Rate YoY 4.4 4.5 +0.697 Medium +15.89
2026-09-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 75.95 72.4 +1.968 Low +15.50
2026-09-16 Inflation Expectations 4.0 4.4 +1.505 Low +14.59
2026-10-13 Mining Production MoM -5.4 2.0 -0.791 Low -14.31
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate YoY 4.3 4.5 +1.395 Medium +14.16
2026-10-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 75.43 77.0 -0.819 Low -12.89
2026-09-16 Retail Sales YoY 3.4 0.9 +1.170 Low +11.34
2026-09-30 Producer Price Index MoM -0.4 0.8 +0.792 Low +10.62
2026-09-23 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.0 0.3 +0.767 Low +8.74
2026-09-22 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -0.9 0.7 -0.783 Low -8.72
2026-10-13 Mining Production YoY -12.7 -3.0 -0.421 Low -7.62
2026-09-10 Current Account -205.5 -85.0 -0.800 Low -6.75
2026-09-23 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.1 4.2 +0.585 Low +6.66
2026-10-08 Manufacturing Production MoM -3.1 1.7 -0.409 Low -6.60
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.2 4.0 -1.228 Low -6.23
2026-10-01 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 50.7 48.8 +0.452 Low +6.20
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.2 -1.150 Low -5.84
2026-09-08 GDP Growth Rate QoQ -0.2 -0.1 -0.362 Medium -5.83
2026-09-17 Building Permits YoY 4.1 -8.0 +0.560 Low +5.55
2026-09-10 Manufacturing Production MoM 2.2 -0.7 +0.601 Low +5.07
2026-08-27 Producer Price Index MoM -1.0 -0.4 +0.792 Low +4.84
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.446 Medium +4.53
2026-09-16 Retail Sales MoM 2.5 0.7 +0.396 Low +3.84
2026-08-25 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.4 -0.5 -0.617 Low -3.60
2026-09-17 Consumer Confidence -13.0 -20.0 +0.360 Low +3.58
2026-09-08 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.9 1.2 -0.219 Medium -3.53
2026-09-30 Producer Price Index YoY 5.0 6.0 +0.259 Low +3.47
2026-09-02 Business Confidence 38.0 34.0 +0.247 Medium +3.46
2026-09-10 Manufacturing Production YoY 1.1 -1.6 +0.402 Low +3.39
2026-08-13 Gold Production YoY 6.2 -1.0 +0.721 Low +3.19
2026-08-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 73.45 72.0 +0.808 Low +3.11
2026-08-20 Building Permits YoY 30.5 12.4 +0.540 Low +2.81
2026-09-30 Budget Balance -29.14 -50.0 +0.203 Low +2.73
2026-10-21 Retail Sales MoM -0.3 -1.5 +0.123 Low +2.68
2026-08-31 M3 Money Supply YoY 8.57 9.2 -0.334 Low -2.24
2026-09-10 Gold Production YoY -7.4 4.5 -0.265 Low -2.24
2026-08-11 Unemployment Rate 33.6 33.1 -0.253 Medium -2.13
2026-08-11 Unemployment Rate 33.6 33.1 -0.253 Medium -2.13
2026-09-01 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 45.8 47.0 -0.296 Low -2.03
2026-09-10 Mining Production YoY -7.5 -2.8 -0.219 Low -1.85
2026-08-03 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 46.8 49.0 -0.521 Low -1.83
2026-09-30 Private Sector Credit YoY 7.47 7.1 +0.135 Low +1.82
2026-07-30 Producer Price Index MoM -0.1 1.8 +0.558 Low +1.78
2026-08-18 SACCI Business Confidence 125.4 123.8 +0.244 Low +1.21
2026-07-31 Balance of Trade 17.75 32.0 -0.184 Medium -1.20
2026-08-18 SACCI Business Confidence 123.5 125.0 -0.227 Low -1.12
2026-08-11 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.9 -1.6 +0.227 Low +0.96
2026-10-21 Retail Sales YoY 3.3 3.0 +0.042 Low +0.92
2026-08-13 Mining Production MoM 0.3 3.2 -0.194 Low -0.86
2026-08-11 Unemployed Persons 8.481 8.3 -0.192 Low -0.81
2026-08-11 Unemployed Persons 8.481 8.3 -0.192 Low -0.81
2026-08-28 Budget Balance -161.58 -130.0 -0.118 Low -0.74
2026-10-13 Gold Production YoY -5.7 -4.1 -0.039 Low -0.71
2026-08-13 Mining Production YoY -4.0 -1.8 -0.159 Low -0.70
2026-07-29 Private Sector Credit YoY 7.8 8.5 -0.214 Low -0.67
2026-08-19 Retail Sales YoY 1.6 2.3 -0.128 Low -0.65
2026-07-30 Budget Balance 80.13 57.0 +0.198 Low +0.63
2026-08-27 Producer Price Index YoY 5.7 6.1 +0.102 Low +0.62
2026-09-10 Mining Production MoM -1.9 -1.5 -0.057 Low -0.48
2026-07-30 Producer Price Index YoY 7.5 8.2 +0.133 Low +0.42
2026-08-31 Balance of Trade 20.14 19.0 +0.025 Medium +0.33
2026-08-19 Retail Sales MoM -0.6 -1.0 +0.062 Low +0.31
2026-08-11 Manufacturing Production YoY -1.7 -2.3 +0.062 Low +0.26
2026-07-29 M3 Money Supply YoY 9.31 9.4 -0.047 Low -0.15
2026-08-31 Private Sector Credit YoY 7.41 7.4 +0.004 Low +0.02
2026-08-03 Total New Vehicle Sales 57.71 57.0 +0.004 Low +0.01
2026-09-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 57.9 58.0 -0.001 Low -0.00
2026-09-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 57.9 58.0 -0.001 Low -0.00
2026-09-03 S&P Global PMI 50.5 50.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-09-23 Interest Rate Decision 7.25 7.25 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-10-21 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-10-21 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00

Sign in to InsiderStreet

You'll also get our free weekly newsletter with
smart money signals, market insights, and alpha ideas.
Unsubscribe anytime.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms