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Economic Surprises › South Africa
South Africa +1.1 ▬ vs 1w ago (+0.8)
South Africa economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.1
1 Week Ago
+0.8
Releases (90d)
80
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with JSE Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (80 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.6 3.9 +1.939 Low +48.47
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.1 -3.989 Medium -46.53
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate YoY 4.0 3.9 -0.816 Medium -40.78
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index MoM 1.1 0.2 -2.350 Low -37.00
2026-04-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.2 3.6 +2.800 Low +36.66
2026-04-21 SACCI Business Confidence 131.3 115.0 +2.708 Low +34.64
2026-04-09 Foreign Exchange Reserves 77.76 84.0 -3.002 Low -29.10
2026-03-18 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.1 -4.559 Low -26.59
2026-04-30 Budget Balance -45.6 -10.0 -1.598 Low -25.17
2026-05-04 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 52.6 46.7 +1.436 Low +24.80
2026-05-14 Mining Production MoM -5.1 -0.8 -1.122 Low -24.42
2026-04-09 Manufacturing Production YoY -2.8 -0.3 -1.968 Low -19.08
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate MoM 1.1 1.4 +0.285 Medium +14.25
2026-03-16 Inflation Expectations 3.6 4.0 +2.553 Low +14.21
2026-03-16 Inflation Expectations 3.6 4.0 +2.553 Low +14.21
2026-04-22 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 1.0 +0.532 Medium +13.93
2026-03-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.3 +2.291 Low +13.36
2026-04-07 S&P Global PMI 50.8 48.7 +1.407 Low +13.02
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.1 +1.026 Medium +11.97
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 1.3 +0.468 Low +11.69
2026-05-12 Manufacturing Production YoY 0.9 -1.0 +0.449 Low +9.32
2026-05-12 Unemployment Rate 32.7 32.3 -0.203 Medium -8.44
2026-05-12 Unemployment Rate 32.7 32.3 -0.203 Medium -8.44
2026-03-12 Current Account 50.2 -30.0 +1.533 Low +7.78
2026-03-12 Current Account 50.2 -30.0 +1.533 Low +7.78
2026-03-31 Balance of Trade 36.92 18.0 +0.433 Medium +6.81
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index YoY 2.3 1.8 -0.426 Low -6.70
2026-03-04 Business Confidence 47.0 35.0 +0.686 Medium +5.79
2026-03-04 Business Confidence 47.0 35.0 +0.686 Medium +5.79
2026-04-09 Manufacturing Production MoM -2.2 0.7 -0.594 Low -5.76
2026-02-26 Producer Price Index MoM -0.2 0.1 +1.566 Low +5.75
2026-05-20 Retail Sales MoM 0.1 -0.2 +0.225 Low +5.63
2026-03-12 Mining Production MoM 2.9 -0.8 +0.966 Low +4.90
2026-04-21 SACCI Business Confidence 134.6 132.0 +0.376 Low +4.81
2026-04-22 Retail Sales MoM -1.0 0.7 -0.365 Low -4.77
2026-04-01 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 49.0 46.6 +0.585 Low +4.72
2026-03-10 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 1.8 -0.477 Medium -4.62
2026-02-27 Balance of Trade 9.31 -20.0 +0.603 Medium +4.54
2026-05-12 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.8 -1.8 +0.207 Low +4.30
2026-03-26 Producer Price Index MoM 0.0 -0.1 -0.522 Low -3.66
2026-04-22 Retail Sales YoY 1.6 4.8 -0.277 Low -3.63
2026-03-30 Private Sector Credit YoY 10.5 8.9 +0.460 Low +3.54
2026-02-24 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.0 0.8 -0.879 Low -3.08
2026-04-28 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM 0.5 1.0 -0.195 Low -2.94
2026-03-12 Manufacturing Production MoM 1.5 0.3 +0.573 Low +2.91
2026-03-18 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 -0.4 +0.488 Low +2.85
2026-04-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.8 1.1 +0.207 Low +2.71
2026-04-30 Balance of Trade 31.87 40.0 -0.084 Medium -2.64
2026-03-24 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM 0.4 0.2 +0.391 Low +2.62
2026-03-12 Mining Production YoY 4.6 -1.6 +0.497 Low +2.52
2026-03-24 Consumer Confidence -7.0 -11.0 +0.364 Low +2.44
2026-04-30 Private Sector Credit YoY 8.5 9.0 -0.142 Low -2.24
2026-03-06 Foreign Exchange Reserves 81.06 82.0 -0.463 Low -2.05
2026-05-14 Gold Production YoY 17.1 9.5 +0.078 Low +1.70
2026-03-18 Retail Sales YoY 4.2 2.5 +0.283 Low +1.65
2026-03-26 Producer Price Index YoY 1.8 2.1 +0.219 Low +1.54
2026-03-02 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 47.4 49.0 -0.371 Low -1.50
2026-03-04 S&P Global PMI 50.0 50.5 -0.323 Low -1.36
2026-05-12 Unemployed Persons 8.137 8.2 +0.066 Low +1.36
2026-05-12 Unemployed Persons 8.137 8.2 +0.066 Low +1.36
2026-02-26 Producer Price Index YoY 2.2 2.8 +0.328 Low +1.21
2026-03-10 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.4 0.3 +0.119 Medium +1.15
2026-05-14 Mining Production YoY 2.5 4.1 -0.050 Low -1.09
2026-03-30 Budget Balance 27.28 21.0 +0.134 Low +1.03
2026-03-12 Gold Production YoY 0.7 -0.8 +0.183 Low +0.93
2026-05-08 Foreign Exchange Reserves 77.09 77.0 +0.047 Low +0.89
2026-04-14 Mining Production MoM 2.3 3.7 -0.079 Low -0.86
2026-03-12 Manufacturing Production YoY -0.7 -2.0 +0.154 Low +0.78
2026-02-27 Private Sector Credit YoY 8.83 9.4 -0.155 Low -0.58
2026-05-04 Total New Vehicle Sales 47.98 53.5 -0.031 Low -0.53
2026-02-19 Building Permits -14.3 -8.0 -0.164 Low -0.51
2026-04-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 58.06 48.5 +0.059 Low +0.47
2026-05-20 Retail Sales YoY 2.6 2.5 +0.017 Low +0.42
2026-02-27 Budget Balance -69.69 -62.8 -0.049 Low -0.19
2026-04-14 Gold Production YoY 12.8 11.0 +0.016 Low +0.17
2026-03-02 Total New Vehicle Sales 53.46 51.0 +0.014 Low +0.06
2026-04-14 Mining Production YoY 9.7 10.0 -0.004 Low -0.04
2026-03-26 Prime Overdraft Rate 10.25 10.25 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-26 Interest Rate Decision 6.75 6.75 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-22 Inflation Rate YoY 3.1 3.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms