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Economic Surprises › South Africa
South Africa +1.5 ▼ vs 1w ago (+3.8)
South Africa economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.5
1 Week Ago
+3.8
Releases (90d)
76
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with JSE Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (76 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.1 -3.969 Medium -180.94
2026-03-18 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.1 -4.481 Low -102.13
2026-03-16 Inflation Expectations 3.6 4.0 +2.553 Low +55.55
2026-03-16 Inflation Expectations 3.6 4.0 +2.553 Low +55.55
2026-03-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.3 +2.356 Low +53.70
2026-01-22 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 -0.1 -3.969 Medium -50.78
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.1 +1.023 Medium +46.65
2026-02-18 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.1 -1.323 Medium -31.58
2026-03-12 Current Account 50.2 -30.0 +1.533 Low +30.41
2026-03-12 Current Account 50.2 -30.0 +1.533 Low +30.41
2026-02-26 Producer Price Index MoM -0.2 0.1 +1.591 Low +22.85
2026-03-04 Business Confidence 47.0 35.0 +0.686 Medium +22.65
2026-03-04 Business Confidence 47.0 35.0 +0.686 Medium +22.65
2026-02-18 Inflation Rate YoY 3.5 3.4 -0.933 Medium -22.27
2026-02-04 S&P Global PMI 50.0 46.8 +2.248 Low +19.42
2026-03-12 Mining Production MoM 2.9 -0.8 +0.960 Low +19.06
2026-03-10 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 1.8 -0.477 Medium -18.07
2026-02-18 SACCI Business Confidence 131.4 122.0 +1.513 Low +18.06
2026-02-27 Balance of Trade 9.31 -20.0 +0.599 Medium +17.62
2026-02-18 SACCI Business Confidence 133.2 125.0 +1.288 Low +15.38
2026-02-02 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 48.7 43.0 +1.508 Low +12.44
2026-02-24 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.0 0.8 -0.868 Low -11.90
2026-01-22 Inflation Rate YoY 3.6 3.5 -0.906 Medium -11.60
2026-03-12 Manufacturing Production MoM 1.5 0.3 +0.570 Low +11.31
2026-03-18 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 -0.4 +0.483 Low +11.01
2026-02-06 Foreign Exchange Reserves 80.19 78.0 +1.174 Low +10.62
2026-03-12 Mining Production YoY 4.6 -1.6 +0.493 Low +9.79
2026-03-06 Foreign Exchange Reserves 81.06 82.0 -0.479 Low -8.28
2026-01-08 Foreign Exchange Reserves 75.89 73.0 +1.655 Low +7.66
2026-03-18 Retail Sales YoY 4.2 2.5 +0.281 Low +6.41
2026-03-02 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 47.4 49.0 -0.372 Low -5.85
2026-01-21 Mining Production MoM -5.9 1.7 -0.928 Low -5.80
2026-03-04 S&P Global PMI 50.0 50.5 -0.326 Low -5.37
2026-01-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.3 3.2 -0.810 Low -5.18
2026-01-30 Balance of Trade 23.18 13.0 +0.320 Medium +4.93
2026-02-26 Producer Price Index YoY 2.2 2.8 +0.326 Low +4.68
2026-03-10 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.4 0.3 +0.119 Medium +4.49
2026-02-18 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.2 -0.373 Low -4.46
2026-01-08 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 40.5 44.0 -0.905 Low -4.19
2026-01-21 Retail Sales YoY 3.5 1.4 +0.620 Low +3.88
2026-03-12 Gold Production YoY 0.7 -0.8 +0.181 Low +3.60
2026-02-17 Unemployment Rate 31.4 31.7 +0.152 Medium +3.54
2026-02-17 Unemployment Rate 31.4 31.7 +0.152 Medium +3.54
2026-02-12 Mining Production YoY 2.5 -1.8 +0.304 Low +3.16
2026-03-12 Manufacturing Production YoY -0.7 -2.0 +0.155 Low +3.07
2026-02-18 Retail Sales MoM -0.4 0.8 -0.223 Low -2.66
2026-01-22 Building Permits 5.8 2.1 +0.366 Low +2.34
2026-02-27 Private Sector Credit YoY 8.83 9.4 -0.154 Low -2.26
2026-01-30 Budget Balance 38.44 24.0 +0.274 Low +2.11
2026-02-19 Building Permits -14.3 -8.0 -0.164 Low -2.00
2025-12-31 M3 Money Supply YoY 8.26 7.5 +0.489 Low +1.88
2026-02-12 Manufacturing Production YoY -1.4 -0.8 -0.178 Low -1.85
2026-01-30 Private Sector Credit YoY 8.74 8.0 +0.235 Low +1.81
2026-02-18 Retail Sales YoY 2.6 3.7 -0.123 Low -1.47
2026-01-21 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 -1.2 +0.223 Low +1.39
2026-01-21 Mining Production YoY -2.7 4.6 -0.202 Low -1.26
2026-02-12 Gold Production YoY 1.1 -4.5 +0.120 Low +1.25
2026-01-21 Gold Production YoY -6.0 -2.0 -0.193 Low -1.21
2026-02-12 Mining Production MoM -1.2 -2.5 +0.108 Low +1.12
2025-12-30 Budget Balance -14.99 -34.0 +0.255 Low +0.96
2026-01-06 S&P Global PMI 47.7 48.0 -0.205 Low -0.91
2025-12-31 Balance of Trade 37.7 30.0 +0.105 Medium +0.81
2026-02-17 Unemployed Persons 7.836 7.9 +0.067 Low +0.78
2026-02-17 Unemployed Persons 7.836 7.9 +0.067 Low +0.78
2026-02-27 Budget Balance -69.69 -62.8 -0.050 Low -0.73
2025-12-31 Private Sector Credit YoY 7.79 7.4 +0.134 Low +0.52
2026-01-09 Manufacturing Production YoY -1.0 -1.4 +0.068 Low +0.32
2026-03-02 Total New Vehicle Sales 53.46 51.0 +0.014 Low +0.22
2026-02-12 Manufacturing Production MoM -1.2 -1.4 +0.020 Low +0.21
2026-02-02 Total New Vehicle Sales 50.07 52.0 -0.011 Low -0.09
2026-01-09 Manufacturing Production MoM -1.1 -1.2 +0.012 Low +0.06
2026-01-05 Total New Vehicle Sales 48.98 50.0 -0.006 Low -0.03
2026-01-29 Producer Price Index YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-29 Interest Rate Decision 6.75 6.75 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-29 Interest Rate Decision 6.75 6.75 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.4 3.4 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms