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Economic Surprises › South Africa
South Africa -8.2 ▼ vs 1w ago (-0.3)
South Africa economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-8.2
1 Week Ago
-0.3
Releases (90d)
83
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with JSE Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (83 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate YoY 5.0 4.7 -2.000 Medium -87.07
2026-07-23 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.25 -1.627 Medium -72.49
2026-07-23 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.25 -1.627 Low -36.24
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.2 -1.511 Low -32.88
2026-07-23 Building Permits YoY -13.1 -2.5 -1.395 Low -31.07
2026-07-23 Prime Overdraft Rate 10.5 10.75 -1.364 Low -30.38
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.8 4.3 +2.870 Low +27.83
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate YoY 4.5 4.7 +1.333 Medium +25.86
2026-05-26 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM 2.4 -0.2 +4.428 Low +25.82
2026-06-30 Inflation Expectations 4.2 3.8 -1.707 Low -22.34
2026-07-07 Foreign Exchange Reserves 74.11 76.4 -1.213 Low -18.66
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 2.0 +0.867 Medium +16.82
2026-06-11 Current Account 190.7 47.0 +1.720 Low +14.52
2026-07-28 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -0.3 0.5 -0.545 Low -13.62
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.1 4.0 -0.617 Low -13.43
2026-06-30 Balance of Trade -1.79 19.0 -0.453 Medium -11.86
2026-07-03 S&P Global PMI 50.5 49.3 +0.798 Low +11.20
2026-07-14 Mining Production YoY -5.4 1.5 -0.594 Low -10.74
2026-07-14 Mining Production MoM -5.2 2.9 -0.589 Low -10.65
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.6 3.9 +1.899 Low +9.64
2026-06-11 Manufacturing Production MoM -2.7 0.4 -1.114 Low -9.40
2026-07-01 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 47.3 50.3 -0.683 Low -9.15
2026-06-11 SACCI Business Confidence 124.1 131.6 -1.081 Low -9.12
2026-06-11 SACCI Business Confidence 123.6 131.0 -1.072 Low -9.04
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate YoY 4.0 3.9 -0.804 Medium -8.16
2026-06-23 Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM -1.8 1.7 -0.701 Low -7.81
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index MoM 1.1 0.2 -2.363 Low -7.56
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.8 +0.167 Medium +7.26
2026-06-11 Manufacturing Production YoY -2.9 1.2 -0.811 Low -6.84
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 1.6 +0.661 Low +6.41
2026-06-03 S&P Global PMI 49.6 51.0 -0.900 Low -6.32
2026-05-28 Producer Price Index YoY 4.8 2.9 -1.008 Low -6.15
2026-05-21 Building Permits YoY 16.9 -8.0 +1.024 Low +5.32
2026-04-30 Budget Balance -45.6 -10.0 -1.655 Low -5.29
2026-05-04 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 52.6 46.7 +1.447 Low +5.08
2026-05-14 Mining Production MoM -5.1 -0.8 -1.133 Low -5.01
2026-06-09 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.5 0.3 +0.239 Medium +3.85
2026-06-17 Retail Sales YoY 1.3 0.7 +0.359 Low +3.48
2026-06-25 Producer Price Index MoM 2.6 1.7 -0.278 Low -3.24
2026-06-30 Private Sector Credit YoY 8.57 9.4 -0.227 Low -2.97
2026-06-25 Producer Price Index YoY 7.8 6.7 -0.253 Low -2.95
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate MoM 1.1 1.4 +0.286 Medium +2.90
2026-05-28 Producer Price Index MoM 3.0 1.6 -0.459 Low -2.81
2026-06-30 Budget Balance -14.62 -10.0 -0.215 Low -2.81
2026-06-17 Retail Sales MoM 0.9 -1.0 +0.288 Low +2.79
2026-07-22 Retail Sales MoM 0.1 0.6 -0.126 Low -2.75
2026-05-29 Private Sector Credit YoY 9.2 7.9 +0.423 Low +2.65
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 1.3 +0.465 Low +2.36
2026-06-01 ABSA Manufacturing PMI 50.8 49.4 +0.325 Low +2.17
2026-06-23 Consumer Confidence -19.0 -16.0 -0.191 Low -2.13
2026-05-12 Manufacturing Production YoY 0.9 -1.0 +0.451 Low +1.90
2026-06-11 Mining Production YoY 8.2 3.0 +0.224 Low +1.89
2026-05-12 Unemployment Rate 32.7 32.3 -0.203 Medium -1.71
2026-05-12 Unemployment Rate 32.7 32.3 -0.203 Medium -1.71
2026-04-30 Producer Price Index YoY 2.3 1.8 -0.427 Low -1.37
2026-07-09 Manufacturing Production YoY -4.3 -3.2 -0.082 Low -1.32
2026-05-20 Retail Sales MoM 0.1 -0.2 +0.228 Low +1.16
2026-06-11 Gold Production YoY -0.2 2.9 -0.106 Low -0.89
2026-05-12 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.8 -1.8 +0.208 Low +0.88
2026-06-05 Foreign Exchange Reserves 76.58 76.8 -0.116 Low -0.85
2026-06-09 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.9 1.8 +0.048 Medium +0.78
2026-06-02 Business Confidence 39.0 38.0 +0.054 Medium +0.74
2026-06-02 Business Confidence 39.0 38.0 +0.054 Medium +0.74
2026-07-22 Retail Sales YoY 2.3 2.5 -0.033 Low -0.73
2026-04-30 Balance of Trade 31.87 40.0 -0.084 Medium -0.54
2026-04-30 Private Sector Credit YoY 8.5 9.0 -0.143 Low -0.46
2026-06-18 Building Permits YoY 16.9 15.0 +0.042 Low +0.41
2026-07-09 Manufacturing Production MoM 1.1 1.3 -0.022 Low -0.36
2026-05-14 Gold Production YoY 17.1 9.5 +0.079 Low +0.35
2026-05-12 Unemployed Persons 8.137 8.2 +0.066 Low +0.28
2026-05-12 Unemployed Persons 8.137 8.2 +0.066 Low +0.28
2026-07-14 Gold Production YoY -4.3 -5.0 +0.014 Low +0.25
2026-05-14 Mining Production YoY 2.5 4.1 -0.050 Low -0.22
2026-07-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 54.48 52.0 +0.014 Low +0.19
2026-05-08 Foreign Exchange Reserves 77.09 77.0 +0.047 Low +0.18
2026-05-29 Budget Balance -63.57 -60.0 -0.028 Low -0.17
2026-05-04 Total New Vehicle Sales 47.98 53.5 -0.031 Low -0.11
2026-06-01 Total New Vehicle Sales 51.07 49.0 +0.013 Low +0.09
2026-05-20 Retail Sales YoY 2.6 2.5 +0.017 Low +0.08
2026-05-29 Balance of Trade 15.16 15.0 +0.004 Medium +0.06
2026-06-11 Mining Production MoM 3.3 3.2 +0.007 Low +0.06
2026-05-28 Prime Overdraft Rate 10.5 10.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-28 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms