Brazil Economic Surprise Index
-2.8 ▬ vs 1w ago (-3.4)
Brazil economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-2.8
1 Week Ago
-3.4
Releases (90d)
95
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Bovespa Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Business Confidence +0.94z
- Foreign Direct Investment +1.08z
- IPCA mid-month CPI YoY +0.96z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY +1.47z
- Gross Domestic Product QoQ +0.88z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Industrial Production MoM -1.92z
- Industrial Production YoY -3.76z
- Producer Price Index YoY -1.09z
- IPCA mid-month CPI YoY -1.63z
- Inflation Rate YoY -0.54z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (95 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.6 | 0.1 | -1.923 | Medium | -53.97 |
| 2026-10-02 | Industrial Production YoY | -1.2 | 0.3 | -3.762 | Low | -52.78 |
| 2026-10-14 | Business Confidence | 46.2 | 44.0 | +0.941 | Medium | +34.85 |
| 2026-10-27 | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.34 | 2.7 | -1.090 | Low | -27.25 |
| 2026-10-26 | Foreign Direct Investment | 11.29 | 6.5 | +1.085 | Low | +26.49 |
| 2026-10-23 | IPCA mid-month CPI YoY | 4.62 | 4.73 | +0.959 | Low | +21.86 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.0 | 1.8 | +1.468 | Medium | +20.12 |
| 2026-09-25 | IPCA mid-month CPI YoY | 4.47 | 4.3 | -1.630 | Low | -19.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.58 | 4.5 | -0.540 | Medium | -17.82 |
| 2026-08-11 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.07 | 0.03 | -1.795 | Medium | -15.15 |
| 2026-09-15 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.738 | Medium | -13.98 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | +0.883 | Medium | +12.11 |
| 2026-08-11 | CPI MoM | 0.07 | 0.03 | -2.764 | Low | -11.66 |
| 2026-10-27 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.54 | 0.5 | -0.464 | Low | -11.59 |
| 2026-10-07 | New Car Sales MoM | 2.3 | -2.0 | +0.721 | Low | +11.35 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 44.8 | 46.5 | -0.818 | Low | -11.22 |
| 2026-08-17 | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | -0.5 | 0.1 | +2.253 | Low | +10.92 |
| 2026-09-29 | Net Payrolls | 165.8 | 95.7 | +0.782 | Low | +10.24 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.2 | 49.9 | -0.338 | Medium | -10.15 |
| 2026-09-30 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 82.9 | 83.1 | -0.360 | Medium | -9.66 |
| 2026-09-02 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.5 | 0.8 | -1.223 | Low | -8.58 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 47.4 | 48.5 | -0.569 | Low | -8.55 |
| 2026-10-15 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.211 | Medium | -7.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.0 | 1.8 | +0.551 | Medium | +7.55 |
| 2026-10-26 | FGV Consumer Confidence | 84.7 | 83.7 | +0.301 | Low | +7.35 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 82.5 | 82.2 | +0.547 | Medium | +7.32 |
| 2026-10-23 | IPCA mid-month CPI MoM | 0.32 | 0.43 | +0.294 | Low | +6.69 |
| 2026-08-25 | FGV Consumer Confidence | 84.7 | 88.6 | -1.108 | Low | -6.46 |
| 2026-09-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.53 | 2.0 | -0.476 | Low | -6.37 |
| 2026-09-11 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.22 | 4.27 | +0.356 | Medium | +6.15 |
| 2026-09-14 | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 45.7 | -0.330 | Medium | -6.10 |
| 2026-08-26 | IPCA mid-month CPI YoY | 4.24 | 4.34 | +0.950 | Low | +5.67 |
| 2026-09-30 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.36 | -0.4 | -0.424 | Low | -5.67 |
| 2026-08-13 | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 44.8 | +0.630 | Medium | +5.57 |
| 2026-10-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.82 | 0.73 | -0.166 | Medium | -5.47 |
| 2026-10-02 | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.51 | 0.3 | -0.366 | Low | -5.14 |
| 2026-07-31 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.5 | +0.735 | Medium | +4.81 |
| 2026-10-15 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 1.5 | -0.251 | Low | -4.75 |
| 2026-08-31 | Budget Balance | -97.6 | -84.0 | -0.696 | Low | -4.66 |
| 2026-09-25 | IPCA mid-month CPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.53 | -0.368 | Low | -4.40 |
| 2026-08-26 | CPI YoY | 4.24 | 4.34 | +0.735 | Low | +4.38 |
| 2026-08-26 | CPI MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | +0.691 | Low | +4.12 |
| 2026-09-30 | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 83.1 | +0.300 | Low | +4.02 |
| 2026-09-02 | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.01 | -0.4 | -0.536 | Low | -3.76 |
| 2026-09-30 | Budget Balance | -116.0 | -109.4 | -0.259 | Low | -3.47 |
| 2026-07-31 | Budget Balance | -166.0 | -133.2 | -1.058 | Low | -3.46 |
| 2026-09-01 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | +0.249 | Medium | +3.41 |
| 2026-09-02 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 1.2 | -0.229 | Medium | -3.21 |
| 2026-08-28 | Net Payrolls | 58.57 | 112.0 | -0.510 | Low | -3.18 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.5 | 82.2 | -0.455 | Low | -3.04 |
| 2026-08-04 | Industrial Production MoM | -1.8 | -0.8 | -0.343 | Medium | -2.47 |
| 2026-08-11 | CPI YoY | 4.44 | 4.4 | -0.290 | Medium | -2.45 |
| 2026-09-11 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.32 | -0.29 | +0.139 | Medium | +2.41 |
| 2026-08-11 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.44 | 4.4 | -0.276 | Medium | -2.33 |
| 2026-09-16 | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.241 | Low | -2.33 |
| 2026-08-26 | IPCA mid-month CPI MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | +0.383 | Low | +2.28 |
| 2026-10-19 | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | 1.8 | 1.4 | -0.107 | Low | -2.23 |
| 2026-08-04 | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | -0.03 | 0.4 | +0.562 | Low | +2.02 |
| 2026-07-31 | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.5 | -0.611 | Low | -2.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | 0.5 | +0.566 | Low | +1.85 |
| 2026-08-28 | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.94 | 2.3 | +0.281 | Low | +1.76 |
| 2026-09-15 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.2 | 2.2 | -0.156 | Low | -1.47 |
| 2026-08-13 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | +0.164 | Medium | +1.45 |
| 2026-08-28 | Bank Lending MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.226 | Low | -1.41 |
| 2026-09-28 | Foreign Direct Investment | 7.4 | 6.9 | +0.107 | Low | +1.36 |
| 2026-08-07 | New Car Sales MoM | 2.6 | 1.3 | +0.335 | Low | +1.29 |
| 2026-08-04 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 3.0 | -0.326 | Low | -1.17 |
| 2026-07-31 | Nominal Budget Balance | -166.0 | -133.2 | -0.301 | Low | -0.98 |
| 2026-10-06 | Balance of Trade | 7.74 | 7.19 | +0.031 | Medium | +0.97 |
| 2026-07-29 | Net Payrolls | 145.16 | 115.0 | +0.280 | Low | +0.88 |
| 2026-08-27 | Current Account | -8.11 | -6.6 | -0.129 | Low | -0.79 |
| 2026-09-24 | FGV Consumer Confidence | 84.2 | 84.0 | +0.060 | Low | +0.70 |
| 2026-08-28 | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.094 | Low | -0.59 |
| 2026-07-30 | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | +0.181 | Low | +0.58 |
| 2026-09-16 | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -0.058 | Low | -0.56 |
| 2026-08-28 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.83 | -0.6 | +0.085 | Low | +0.53 |
| 2026-08-27 | Foreign Direct Investment | 7.46 | 7.9 | -0.082 | Low | -0.50 |
| 2026-08-06 | Balance of Trade | 7.07 | 8.4 | -0.065 | Medium | -0.49 |
| 2026-08-13 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.4 | +0.071 | Low | +0.32 |
| 2026-10-26 | Current Account | -5.1 | -5.0 | -0.011 | Low | -0.27 |
| 2026-09-28 | Current Account | -5.06 | -4.9 | -0.018 | Low | -0.24 |
| 2026-08-17 | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.048 | Low | -0.23 |
| 2026-09-04 | Balance of Trade | 7.39 | 7.14 | +0.014 | Medium | +0.21 |
| 2026-09-29 | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.57 | 1.6 | +0.015 | Low | +0.19 |
| 2026-07-30 | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -1.09 | +0.051 | Low | +0.16 |
| 2026-09-08 | New Car Sales MoM | -1.6 | -1.7 | +0.020 | Low | +0.16 |
| 2026-08-07 | Car Production MoM | 3.1 | 2.8 | +0.008 | Low | +0.03 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2.5 | -0.007 | Low | -0.02 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.4 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | Interest Rate Decision | 14.0 | 14.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.3 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | Interest Rate Decision | 13.75 | 13.75 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | Bank Lending MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.3 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | IBC-BR Economic Activity | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |