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Economic Surprises › Brazil
Brazil -3.1 ▬ vs 1w ago (-3.7)
Brazil economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-3.1
1 Week Ago
-3.7
Releases (90d)
117
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Bovespa Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (117 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-01-26 Foreign Direct Investment -5.25 1.0 -9.062 Low -63.57
2026-02-27 IPCA mid-month CPI YoY 4.1 3.8 -3.295 Low -48.42
2026-03-11 Retail Sales MoM 0.4 -0.1 +1.210 Medium +46.91
2026-03-18 Interest Rate Decision 14.75 14.5 +0.946 Medium +43.10
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.1 51.5 +0.753 Medium +24.82
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.5 -1.560 Medium -24.01
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.5 -1.560 Medium -24.01
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.5 -1.560 Medium -24.01
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.0 -0.589 Medium -17.30
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.0 -0.589 Medium -17.30
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.0 -0.589 Medium -17.30
2026-03-06 Industrial Production YoY 0.2 -0.7 +0.997 Low +17.22
2026-03-18 Business Confidence 46.6 47.5 -0.347 Medium -15.83
2026-03-06 Industrial Production MoM 1.8 0.7 +0.427 Medium +14.75
2026-01-06 S&P Global Services PMI 53.7 50.5 +1.535 Medium +13.57
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 51.3 53.0 -0.777 Medium -13.42
2026-03-03 IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM 0.25 -0.4 -0.813 Low -13.10
2026-03-12 Inflation Rate YoY 3.81 3.77 -0.317 Medium -12.60
2026-02-27 CPI 0.84 0.6 -0.848 Low -12.46
2026-02-27 CPI 0.84 0.6 -0.848 Low -12.46
2026-02-27 CPI 0.84 0.6 -0.848 Low -12.46
2025-12-30 Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.4 +1.631 Medium +12.26
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.735 Low -10.80
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.735 Low -10.80
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.735 Low -10.80
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.3 50.1 +0.605 Low +9.98
2026-01-30 Gross Debt to GDP 78.7 79.5 +1.223 Low +9.41
2026-03-06 Car Production MoM 24.9 -4.0 +0.534 Low +9.23
2026-01-09 Inflation Rate YoY 4.26 4.4 +0.952 Medium +9.02
2026-02-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9 52.0 -1.020 Low -8.81
2026-01-09 Inflation Rate MoM 0.33 0.2 -0.863 Medium -8.18
2026-01-16 IBC-BR Economic Activity 0.7 0.1 +1.414 Low +7.87
2026-02-23 FGV Consumer Confidence 86.1 88.0 -0.521 Low -6.98
2026-01-08 Industrial Production YoY -1.2 1.3 -1.491 Low -6.90
2026-02-27 Gross Debt to GDP 78.7 79.0 +0.461 Low +6.78
2026-02-27 IPCA mid-month CPI MoM 0.84 0.6 -0.448 Low -6.59
2026-01-30 Budget Balance -115.502 -95.4 -0.812 Low -6.25
2026-01-30 Budget Balance -115.502 -95.4 -0.812 Low -6.25
2026-01-30 Budget Balance -115.502 -95.4 -0.812 Low -6.25
2026-02-25 Bank Lending MoM -0.2 -0.1 -0.433 Low -6.07
2026-02-19 Business Confidence 48.2 48.8 -0.225 Medium -5.50
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index YoY -4.33 -5.2 -0.322 Low -5.30
2026-02-13 Retail Sales MoM -0.4 -0.2 -0.242 Medium -5.15
2026-01-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.1 50.0 +1.061 Low +4.69
2026-03-11 Retail Sales YoY 2.8 1.7 +0.217 Low +4.21
2026-02-03 Industrial Production YoY 0.4 1.1 -0.493 Low -4.16
2026-03-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.65 -0.102 Medium -4.05
2026-03-03 Net Payrolls 112.33 92.0 +0.230 Low +3.71
2026-02-11 Producer Price Index MoM 0.12 -0.2 -0.337 Low -3.42
2026-02-27 Nominal Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.229 Low -3.36
2026-02-24 Foreign Direct Investment 8.17 7.0 +0.242 Low +3.32
2026-02-03 Industrial Production MoM -1.2 -0.7 -0.194 Medium -3.28
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.0 47.8 -0.382 Low -3.15
2026-01-15 Retail Sales YoY 1.3 0.5 +0.536 Low +2.92
2025-12-29 IGP-M Inflation MoM -0.01 0.15 +0.770 Low +2.83
2026-01-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.6 49.0 -0.652 Low -2.63
2026-01-15 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 0.5 +0.242 Medium +2.63
2026-02-11 Producer Price Index YoY -4.53 -4.0 +0.255 Low +2.59
2025-12-30 Budget Balance -101.6 -86.4 -0.678 Low -2.55
2026-01-08 Industrial Production MoM 0.0 0.2 -0.272 Medium -2.51
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index MoM 0.34 0.2 -0.148 Low -2.43
2026-01-29 Net Payrolls -618.16 -478.0 -0.306 Low -2.30
2026-02-06 New Car Registrations MoM -39.0 -9.6 -0.253 Low -2.28
2026-02-26 IGP-M Inflation MoM -0.73 -0.6 +0.156 Low +2.25
2026-02-24 Current Account -8.36 -6.6 -0.156 Low -2.14
2026-01-30 Nominal Budget Balance -115.502 -95.4 -0.253 Low -1.94
2025-12-22 FGV Consumer Confidence 90.2 88.0 +0.603 Low +1.89
2025-12-30 Gross Debt to GDP 79.0 78.7 -0.463 Low -1.74
2026-02-19 IBC-BR Economic Activity -0.2 -0.5 +0.141 Low +1.73
2026-01-06 Balance of Trade 9.6 6.5 +0.191 Medium +1.69
2026-01-15 Car Production MoM -15.8 5.1 -0.303 Low -1.65
2026-01-26 Current Account -3.36 -5.3 +0.214 Low +1.50
2026-02-10 Inflation Rate YoY 4.44 4.43 -0.068 Medium -1.34
2026-01-06 IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM 0.32 0.2 -0.300 Low -1.33
2026-01-15 New Car Registrations MoM 17.1 4.4 +0.238 Low +1.30
2026-02-03 IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM 0.21 0.3 +0.150 Low +1.27
2025-12-23 CPI 0.25 0.3 +0.353 Low +1.13
2025-12-30 Nominal Budget Balance -101.6 -84.7 -0.239 Low -0.90
2026-01-06 Balance of Trade 9.63 6.39 +0.203 Low +0.90
2026-03-12 CPI 3.81 3.77 -0.022 Medium -0.89
2026-03-12 CPI 3.81 3.77 -0.022 Medium -0.89
2026-02-10 Inflation Rate MoM 0.33 0.32 -0.042 Medium -0.82
2026-02-05 Balance of Trade 4.34 4.9 -0.046 Medium -0.81
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.3 47.2 +0.048 Low +0.76
2026-01-27 IPCA mid-month CPI YoY 4.5 4.51 +0.093 Low +0.66
2026-02-10 CPI 0.33 0.32 -0.066 Low -0.66
2025-12-23 IPCA mid-month CPI MoM 0.25 0.3 +0.187 Low +0.60
2026-01-09 CPI 0.33 0.35 +0.121 Low +0.57
2025-12-29 Net Payrolls 85.86 100.0 -0.147 Low -0.54
2026-03-06 New Car Registrations MoM 8.6 12.0 -0.023 Low -0.40
2026-01-27 IPCA mid-month CPI MoM 0.2 0.21 +0.053 Low +0.38
2026-02-06 Car Production MoM -13.5 -9.0 -0.037 Low -0.33
2025-12-23 IPCA mid-month CPI YoY 4.41 4.4 -0.095 Low -0.30
2026-03-16 IBC-BR Economic Activity 0.8 0.85 -0.014 Low -0.30
2026-02-13 Retail Sales YoY 2.3 2.5 -0.027 Low -0.29
2026-01-16 Producer Price Index MoM -0.37 -0.3 +0.049 Low +0.27
2026-01-16 Producer Price Index YoY -3.38 -3.3 +0.047 Low +0.26
2025-12-26 Bank Lending MoM 0.9 1.0 -0.043 Low -0.15
2026-02-10 CPI 4.44 4.43 -0.005 Medium -0.09
2026-02-10 CPI 4.44 4.43 -0.005 Medium -0.09
2026-01-27 CPI 4.5 4.52 +0.009 Low +0.07
2026-01-27 CPI 4.5 4.52 +0.009 Low +0.07
2026-03-05 Balance of Trade 4.21 4.23 -0.002 Medium -0.06
2025-12-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 79.0 79.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-16 Business Confidence 48.5 48.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-28 Interest Rate Decision 15.0 15.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-29 IGP-M Inflation MoM 0.41 0.41 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-30 Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-05 Unemployment Rate 5.4 5.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms