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Economic Surprises › Brazil
Brazil +0.5 ▬ vs 1w ago (+0.3)
Brazil economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+0.5
1 Week Ago
+0.3
Releases (90d)
119
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Bovespa Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (119 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 52.3 49.0 +1.602 Medium +57.95
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product MoM 80.1 79.6 +0.925 Medium +29.15
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.6 49.5 +1.434 Low +24.76
2026-05-15 Business Confidence 47.2 46.0 +0.483 Medium +21.50
2026-04-30 Budget Balance -199.539 -148.0 -1.355 Low -21.34
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.4 50.1 +1.164 Low +21.05
2026-04-10 Inflation Rate YoY 4.14 4.0 -1.050 Medium -20.83
2026-04-10 CPI YoY 4.14 4.0 -1.010 Medium -20.04
2026-04-06 S&P Global Services PMI 50.1 52.5 -1.087 Medium -19.67
2026-04-28 IPCA mid-month CPI YoY 4.37 4.49 +1.105 Low +16.62
2026-03-26 CPI MoM 0.44 0.29 -2.235 Low -15.68
2026-05-07 Industrial Production MoM 0.1 -0.2 +0.410 Medium +15.18
2026-04-29 Producer Price Index YoY -1.54 -3.0 -0.945 Low -14.54
2026-05-18 IBC-BR Economic Activity -0.7 -0.2 -0.593 Low -14.15
2026-04-27 Bank Lending MoM 0.9 0.3 +0.882 Low +12.96
2026-04-27 Bank Lending MoM 0.9 0.3 +0.882 Low +12.96
2026-03-26 IPCA mid-month CPI YoY 3.9 3.74 -1.769 Low -12.41
2026-02-27 IPCA mid-month CPI YoY 4.1 3.8 -3.265 Low -12.28
2026-03-11 Retail Sales MoM 0.4 -0.1 +1.214 Medium +12.04
2026-04-30 Gross Debt to GDP 80.1 79.6 -0.760 Low -11.98
2026-03-27 Unemployment Rate 5.8 5.7 -0.774 Medium -11.12
2026-03-18 Interest Rate Decision 14.75 14.5 +0.950 Medium +11.08
2026-04-28 CPI YoY 4.37 4.48 +0.708 Low +10.65
2026-03-25 FGV Consumer Confidence 88.1 83.0 +1.488 Low +10.20
2026-04-29 Producer Price Index MoM 2.37 0.6 -0.630 Low -9.70
2026-03-26 CPI YoY 3.9 3.74 -1.234 Low -8.66
2026-02-27 CPI YoY 4.1 3.8 -2.278 Low -8.56
2026-04-29 Net Payrolls 228.21 150.0 +0.549 Low +8.44
2026-04-02 IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM 0.59 0.2 -0.983 Low -8.11
2026-04-24 FGV Consumer Confidence 89.1 87.0 +0.584 Low +8.01
2026-04-15 Business Confidence 45.2 46.0 -0.322 Medium -7.17
2026-04-28 CPI MoM 0.89 1.0 +0.475 Low +7.15
2026-04-30 Nominal Budget Balance -199.539 -148.0 -0.421 Low -6.62
2026-02-27 CPI MoM 0.84 0.6 -1.728 Low -6.50
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.1 51.5 +0.739 Medium +6.24
2026-04-10 CPI MoM 0.88 0.77 -0.617 Low -6.12
2026-04-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.9 51.2 -0.644 Low -5.82
2026-05-12 Inflation Rate YoY 4.39 4.41 +0.136 Medium +5.65
2026-05-12 CPI YoY 4.39 4.41 +0.131 Medium +5.44
2026-05-05 IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM 0.4 1.0 +0.303 Low +5.35
2026-03-06 Industrial Production YoY 0.2 -0.7 +1.003 Low +4.43
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.0 -0.559 Medium -4.21
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.0 -0.559 Medium -4.21
2026-02-27 Gross Domestic Product MoM 78.7 79.0 -0.559 Medium -4.21
2026-03-18 Business Confidence 46.6 47.5 -0.351 Medium -4.09
2026-03-26 IPCA mid-month CPI MoM 0.44 0.29 -0.584 Low -4.09
2026-05-12 CPI MoM 0.67 0.7 +0.185 Low +3.85
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.0 48.0 +0.477 Low +3.84
2026-03-06 Industrial Production MoM 1.8 0.7 +0.429 Medium +3.80
2026-04-10 Inflation Rate MoM 0.88 0.77 -0.191 Medium -3.79
2026-03-03 IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM 0.25 -0.4 -0.820 Low -3.38
2026-05-07 Industrial Production YoY 4.3 3.5 +0.178 Low +3.30
2026-05-13 Retail Sales YoY 4.0 2.75 +0.153 Low +3.26
2026-03-31 Nominal Budget Balance -100.589 -75.0 -0.412 Low -3.24
2026-03-12 Inflation Rate YoY 3.81 3.77 -0.318 Medium -3.23
2026-02-27 CPI 0.84 0.6 -0.848 Low -3.19
2026-02-27 CPI 0.84 0.6 -0.848 Low -3.19
2026-02-27 CPI 0.84 0.6 -0.848 Low -3.19
2026-04-15 Retail Sales YoY 0.2 1.2 -0.281 Low -3.13
2026-03-12 CPI YoY 3.81 3.77 -0.306 Medium -3.11
2026-04-08 Car Production MoM 27.6 -9.0 +0.304 Low +2.88
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.742 Low -2.79
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.742 Low -2.79
2026-02-27 Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.742 Low -2.79
2026-03-31 Producer Price Index MoM -0.25 0.4 +0.347 Low +2.73
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.3 50.1 +0.607 Low +2.56
2026-03-06 Car Production MoM 24.9 -4.0 +0.540 Low +2.39
2026-05-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.67 0.7 +0.057 Medium +2.38
2026-04-15 Retail Sales MoM 0.6 1.0 -0.097 Medium -2.16
2026-04-02 Industrial Production YoY -0.7 -1.0 +0.234 Low +1.93
2026-04-28 IPCA mid-month CPI MoM 0.89 1.0 +0.124 Low +1.87
2026-02-23 FGV Consumer Confidence 86.1 88.0 -0.523 Low -1.79
2026-02-27 Gross Debt to GDP 78.7 79.0 +0.460 Low +1.73
2026-02-27 IPCA mid-month CPI MoM 0.84 0.6 -0.451 Low -1.70
2026-03-12 CPI MoM 0.7 0.65 -0.332 Low -1.69
2026-02-25 Bank Lending MoM -0.2 -0.1 -0.441 Low -1.58
2026-02-19 Business Confidence 48.2 48.8 -0.228 Medium -1.42
2026-04-24 Foreign Direct Investment 6.04 6.5 -0.103 Low -1.42
2026-03-31 Producer Price Index YoY -4.47 -4.1 +0.175 Low +1.38
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index YoY -4.33 -5.2 -0.325 Low -1.37
2026-04-02 Industrial Production MoM 0.9 0.7 +0.078 Medium +1.29
2026-03-27 Foreign Direct Investment 6.75 7.6 -0.163 Low -1.17
2026-03-30 Bank Lending MoM 0.4 0.6 -0.147 Low -1.13
2026-03-30 Bank Lending MoM 0.4 0.6 -0.147 Low -1.13
2026-03-11 Retail Sales YoY 2.8 1.7 +0.218 Low +1.08
2026-04-29 IGP-M Inflation MoM 2.73 2.5 -0.068 Low -1.05
2026-03-12 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.65 -0.103 Medium -1.04
2026-04-07 Balance of Trade 6.4 7.4 -0.054 Medium -1.01
2026-03-03 Net Payrolls 112.33 92.0 +0.233 Low +0.96
2026-02-27 Nominal Budget Balance 40.062 49.5 -0.230 Low -0.87
2026-02-24 Foreign Direct Investment 8.17 7.0 +0.244 Low +0.86
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index MoM 0.34 0.2 -0.150 Low -0.63
2026-02-26 IGP-M Inflation MoM -0.73 -0.6 +0.161 Low +0.59
2026-04-24 Current Account -6.04 -5.65 -0.041 Low -0.56
2026-02-24 Current Account -8.36 -6.6 -0.157 Low -0.55
2026-04-16 IBC-BR Economic Activity 0.6 0.5 +0.047 Low +0.54
2026-05-08 Car Production MoM -9.5 -15.0 +0.027 Low +0.52
2026-05-07 Balance of Trade 10.54 10.9 -0.013 Medium -0.49
2026-03-31 Net Payrolls 255.32 270.0 -0.057 Low -0.45
2026-02-19 IBC-BR Economic Activity -0.2 -0.5 +0.142 Low +0.44
2026-03-12 CPI 3.81 3.77 -0.022 Medium -0.23
2026-03-12 CPI 3.81 3.77 -0.022 Medium -0.23
2026-03-30 IGP-M Inflation MoM 0.52 0.5 -0.030 Low -0.23
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.3 47.2 +0.048 Low +0.20
2026-03-27 Current Account -5.61 -5.4 -0.023 Low -0.16
2026-03-06 New Car Registrations MoM 8.6 12.0 -0.023 Low -0.10
2026-03-16 IBC-BR Economic Activity 0.8 0.85 -0.014 Low -0.08
2026-03-05 Balance of Trade 4.21 4.23 -0.002 Medium -0.02
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-03 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-05 Unemployment Rate 5.4 5.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-29 Interest Rate Decision 14.5 14.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 Unemployment Rate 6.1 6.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms