Brazil
+1.4
▬
vs 1w ago (+0.9)
Brazil economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.4
1 Week Ago
+0.9
Releases (90d)
98
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with Bovespa Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Gross Domestic Product YoY +1.47z
- Gross Domestic Product QoQ +0.88z
- GDP Growth Rate YoY +0.55z
- Gross Domestic Product MoM +0.53z
- Inflation Rate YoY +0.35z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Inflation Rate MoM -1.79z
- CPI MoM -2.76z
- Industrial Production YoY -1.27z
- S&P Global Composite PMI -0.93z
- FGV Consumer Confidence -1.09z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (98 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.0 | 1.8 | +1.468 | Medium | +58.24 |
| 2026-08-11 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.07 | 0.03 | -1.787 | Medium | -43.65 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | +0.883 | Medium | +35.04 |
| 2026-08-11 | CPI MoM | 0.07 | 0.03 | -2.764 | Low | -33.76 |
| 2026-09-02 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.5 | 0.8 | -1.275 | Low | -25.88 |
| 2026-09-01 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.0 | 1.8 | +0.551 | Medium | +21.85 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 82.5 | 82.2 | +0.533 | Medium | +20.69 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 49.1 | 51.0 | -0.928 | Low | -19.29 |
| 2026-08-25 | FGV Consumer Confidence | 84.7 | 88.6 | -1.092 | Low | -18.44 |
| 2026-09-11 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.22 | 4.27 | +0.354 | Medium | +17.72 |
| 2026-08-26 | IPCA mid-month CPI YoY | 4.24 | 4.34 | +0.956 | Low | +16.51 |
| 2026-08-13 | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 44.8 | +0.626 | Medium | +16.03 |
| 2026-07-31 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.5 | +0.717 | Medium | +13.59 |
| 2026-08-31 | Budget Balance | -97.6 | -84.0 | -0.684 | Low | -13.27 |
| 2026-08-26 | CPI YoY | 4.24 | 4.34 | +0.735 | Low | +12.69 |
| 2026-07-28 | CPI MoM | 0.06 | 0.19 | +1.418 | Low | +12.54 |
| 2026-07-10 | CPI YoY | 4.64 | 4.8 | +1.063 | Medium | +12.40 |
| 2026-08-26 | CPI MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | +0.691 | Low | +11.94 |
| 2026-07-28 | IPCA mid-month CPI YoY | 4.52 | 4.67 | +1.333 | Low | +11.78 |
| 2026-07-10 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.64 | 4.8 | +1.009 | Medium | +11.76 |
| 2026-09-02 | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.01 | -0.4 | -0.532 | Low | -10.81 |
| 2026-07-28 | Foreign Direct Investment | 9.07 | 5.0 | +1.194 | Low | +10.56 |
| 2026-09-01 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | +0.249 | Medium | +9.87 |
| 2026-07-31 | Budget Balance | -166.0 | -133.2 | -1.041 | Low | -9.86 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 50.5 | 51.0 | -0.236 | Medium | -9.81 |
| 2026-07-13 | Business Confidence | 44.4 | 46.3 | -0.768 | Medium | -9.60 |
| 2026-09-02 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 1.2 | -0.231 | Medium | -9.37 |
| 2026-08-28 | Net Payrolls | 58.57 | 112.0 | -0.508 | Low | -9.19 |
| 2026-07-28 | CPI YoY | 4.52 | 4.67 | +1.024 | Low | +9.05 |
| 2026-08-31 | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.5 | 82.2 | -0.449 | Low | -8.71 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.3 | 47.2 | -0.429 | Low | -8.52 |
| 2026-07-10 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.16 | 0.31 | +0.648 | Medium | +7.56 |
| 2026-08-04 | Industrial Production MoM | -1.8 | -0.8 | -0.346 | Medium | -7.19 |
| 2026-08-11 | CPI YoY | 4.44 | 4.4 | -0.290 | Medium | -7.08 |
| 2026-07-28 | IPCA mid-month CPI MoM | 0.06 | 0.2 | +0.799 | Low | +7.06 |
| 2026-09-11 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.32 | -0.29 | +0.139 | Medium | +6.93 |
| 2026-08-11 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.44 | 4.4 | -0.275 | Medium | -6.72 |
| 2026-08-26 | IPCA mid-month CPI MoM | -0.4 | -0.3 | +0.380 | Low | +6.57 |
| 2026-07-10 | CPI MoM | 0.16 | 0.31 | +1.003 | Low | +5.85 |
| 2026-08-04 | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | -0.03 | 0.4 | +0.558 | Low | +5.80 |
| 2026-07-31 | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.5 | -0.604 | Low | -5.72 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | 0.5 | +0.563 | Low | +5.33 |
| 2026-08-28 | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.94 | 2.3 | +0.279 | Low | +5.05 |
| 2026-07-03 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.461 | Medium | -4.58 |
| 2026-08-13 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | +0.163 | Medium | +4.18 |
| 2026-08-28 | Bank Lending MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.225 | Low | -4.06 |
| 2026-06-30 | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.1 | 80.6 | -0.763 | Low | -3.53 |
| 2026-08-04 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 3.0 | -0.340 | Low | -3.53 |
| 2026-08-07 | New Car Sales MoM | 2.6 | 1.3 | +0.315 | Low | +3.51 |
| 2026-07-03 | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | 1.3 | -0.664 | Low | -3.29 |
| 2026-07-31 | Nominal Budget Balance | -166.0 | -133.2 | -0.301 | Low | -2.85 |
| 2026-07-16 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.196 | Medium | -2.63 |
| 2026-07-29 | Net Payrolls | 145.16 | 115.0 | +0.279 | Low | +2.53 |
| 2026-06-16 | Retail Sales MoM | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.367 | Medium | -2.46 |
| 2026-06-26 | Foreign Direct Investment | 7.97 | 5.75 | +0.566 | Low | +2.39 |
| 2026-06-30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 1.99 | 2.8 | +0.515 | Low | +2.39 |
| 2026-08-27 | Current Account | -8.11 | -6.6 | -0.128 | Low | -2.26 |
| 2026-06-30 | Budget Balance | -163.679 | -148.3 | -0.438 | Low | -2.03 |
| 2026-06-30 | Net Payrolls | 72.96 | 115.0 | -0.389 | Low | -1.80 |
| 2026-08-28 | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.093 | Low | -1.69 |
| 2026-07-30 | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | +0.180 | Low | +1.66 |
| 2026-08-28 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.83 | -0.6 | +0.085 | Low | +1.54 |
| 2026-07-07 | New Car Sales MoM | -0.8 | -7.0 | +0.279 | Low | +1.52 |
| 2026-07-16 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 1.2 | -0.227 | Low | -1.52 |
| 2026-06-24 | FGV Consumer Confidence | 88.7 | 90.0 | -0.358 | Low | -1.44 |
| 2026-08-27 | Foreign Direct Investment | 7.46 | 7.9 | -0.082 | Low | -1.44 |
| 2026-08-06 | Balance of Trade | 7.07 | 8.4 | -0.065 | Medium | -1.41 |
| 2026-06-30 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 1.8 | +0.259 | Low | +1.20 |
| 2026-07-02 | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.3 | +0.208 | Low | +1.01 |
| 2026-08-13 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.4 | +0.071 | Low | +0.91 |
| 2026-06-25 | IPCA mid-month CPI YoY | 4.8 | 4.82 | +0.172 | Low | +0.71 |
| 2026-08-17 | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.048 | Low | -0.67 |
| 2026-09-04 | Balance of Trade | 7.39 | 7.14 | +0.014 | Medium | +0.61 |
| 2026-06-30 | Nominal Budget Balance | -163.679 | -148.3 | -0.127 | Low | -0.59 |
| 2026-06-25 | CPI MoM | 0.41 | 0.44 | +0.141 | Low | +0.58 |
| 2026-06-16 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.0 | 2.0 | -0.170 | Low | -0.57 |
| 2026-06-25 | CPI YoY | 4.8 | 4.82 | +0.132 | Low | +0.55 |
| 2026-06-26 | Current Account | -3.19 | -4.16 | +0.130 | Low | +0.55 |
| 2026-06-15 | Business Confidence | 46.7 | 46.5 | +0.080 | Medium | +0.53 |
| 2026-07-27 | FGV Consumer Confidence | 88.3 | 88.5 | -0.056 | Low | -0.48 |
| 2026-07-30 | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -1.09 | +0.050 | Low | +0.46 |
| 2026-09-08 | New Car Sales MoM | -1.6 | -1.7 | +0.019 | Low | +0.43 |
| 2026-06-29 | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -0.5 | -0.45 | +0.086 | Low | +0.39 |
| 2026-06-25 | IPCA mid-month CPI MoM | 0.41 | 0.44 | +0.078 | Low | +0.32 |
| 2026-07-07 | Car Production MoM | -3.0 | -13.0 | +0.058 | Low | +0.32 |
| 2026-07-28 | Current Account | -2.33 | -2.45 | +0.027 | Low | +0.24 |
| 2026-06-17 | IBC-BR Economic Activity | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.040 | Low | -0.14 |
| 2026-08-07 | Car Production MoM | 3.1 | 2.8 | +0.008 | Low | +0.09 |
| 2026-07-31 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2.5 | -0.007 | Low | -0.07 |
| 2026-07-03 | Balance of Trade | 9.76 | 9.9 | -0.006 | Medium | -0.06 |
| 2026-07-06 | Balance of Trade | 9.76 | 9.9 | -0.006 | Medium | -0.06 |
| 2026-06-17 | Interest Rate Decision | 14.25 | 14.25 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | Interest Rate Decision | 14.25 | 14.25 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | Unemployment Rate | 5.6 | 5.6 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bank Lending MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.4 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | Interest Rate Decision | 14.0 | 14.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.3 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |