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Economic Surprises › Spain
Spain -5.2 ▬ vs 1w ago (-5.2)
Spain economic data has been missing expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have generally fallen short of analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be weaker than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
-5.2
1 Week Ago
-5.2
Releases (90d)
131
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with IBEX 35 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (131 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 2.5 2.3 -2.009 Medium -59.03
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 2.5 2.3 -2.009 Medium -59.03
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 2.5 2.3 -2.009 Medium -59.03
2026-02-27 HICP YoY 2.5 2.3 -2.009 Medium -59.03
2026-02-04 Services PMI 53.5 56.6 -1.869 Medium -32.28
2026-02-04 Services PMI 53.5 56.6 -1.869 Medium -32.28
2026-02-04 HCOB Services PMI 53.5 56.6 -1.818 Medium -31.40
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.8 0.6 +1.644 Medium +25.31
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.8 0.6 +1.644 Medium +25.31
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.8 0.6 +1.644 Medium +25.31
2026-01-27 Unemployment Rate 9.93 10.6 +1.744 Medium +25.04
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 51.9 52.9 -0.665 Medium -21.95
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 52.9 -0.645 Medium -21.28
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 52.9 -0.645 Medium -21.28
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 52.9 -0.645 Medium -21.28
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.8 0.6 +0.917 High +21.18
2026-02-27 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.7 2.5 -1.346 Low -19.78
2026-02-13 HICP YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.924 Medium +19.65
2026-02-13 HICP YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.924 Medium +19.65
2026-02-13 HICP YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.924 Medium +19.65
2026-02-13 HICP YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.924 Medium +19.65
2026-03-04 HCOB Services PMI 51.9 52.8 -0.566 Medium -18.66
2026-03-04 HCOB Composite PMI 51.5 53.4 -1.119 Low -18.46
2026-02-24 Consumer Confidence 80.5 76.0 +0.660 Medium +18.09
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.5 56.6 -1.928 Low -16.65
2026-01-30 HICP YoY 2.5 2.4 -0.962 Medium -14.81
2026-01-30 HICP YoY 2.5 2.4 -0.962 Medium -14.81
2026-01-30 HICP YoY 2.5 2.4 -0.962 Medium -14.81
2026-01-05 Employment Change -16.3 5.7 -1.056 High -13.69
2026-02-04 HCOB Composite PMI 52.9 55.7 -1.581 Low -13.66
2026-01-30 Inflation Rate MoM -0.4 -0.2 +0.866 Medium +13.32
2026-03-12 Consumer Confidence 83.9 81.5 +0.328 Medium +13.02
2026-01-06 Services PMI 57.1 54.8 +1.432 Medium +12.66
2026-01-06 HCOB Services PMI 57.1 54.8 +1.393 Medium +12.31
2026-03-02 New Car Sales YoY 7.5 1.8 +0.750 Low +11.81
2026-01-30 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.4 -1.402 Low -10.79
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.704 Low -10.35
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.704 Low -10.35
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.704 Low -10.35
2026-02-27 HICP MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.704 Low -10.35
2026-01-02 Manufacturing PMI 49.6 51.2 -1.266 Medium -10.20
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 49.2 49.9 -0.568 Medium -9.37
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 49.2 49.9 -0.568 Medium -9.37
2026-01-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 49.6 51.2 -1.123 Medium -9.05
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.2 49.9 -0.549 Medium -9.05
2026-02-03 Employment Change 30.4 10.5 +0.519 Medium +8.76
2026-02-27 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.289 Medium -8.48
2026-02-03 Tourist Arrivals YoY 0.4 4.5 -0.995 Low -8.40
2026-03-03 Employment Change 3.584 37.5 -0.248 Medium -7.98
2026-03-11 Retail Sales MoM 0.1 -0.2 +0.393 Low +7.61
2026-02-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 49.2 49.8 -0.433 Medium -7.14
2026-02-27 CPI 2.3 2.2 -0.222 Medium -6.52
2026-02-27 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.405 Low -5.95
2025-12-23 Producer Price Index YoY -2.5 0.9 +1.837 Low +5.87
2026-02-03 Employment Change 30.4 13.4 +0.347 Medium +5.86
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.6 2.7 -0.662 Low -5.10
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.6 2.7 -0.662 Low -5.10
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.6 2.7 -0.662 Low -5.10
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2.6 2.7 -0.220 High -5.08
2026-03-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.8 +0.144 Medium +4.54
2025-12-30 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 0.4 +0.393 High +4.43
2026-02-27 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.3 -0.248 Low -3.64
2026-03-04 Tourist Arrivals YoY 1.2 1.0 +0.218 Low +3.60
2026-01-02 Consumer Confidence 76.0 79.0 -0.423 Medium -3.41
2026-01-09 Industrial Production YoY 4.5 1.0 +0.712 Low +3.37
2026-02-13 HICP MoM -0.8 -0.7 +0.302 Low +3.21
2026-02-13 HICP MoM -0.8 -0.7 +0.302 Low +3.21
2026-02-13 HICP MoM -0.8 -0.7 +0.302 Low +3.21
2026-02-13 HICP MoM -0.8 -0.7 +0.302 Low +3.21
2025-12-30 Retail Sales YoY 6.0 3.6 +0.274 High +3.09
2026-02-27 Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.2 -0.101 Medium -2.96
2026-03-05 Industrial Production YoY 0.3 1.7 -0.168 Low -2.83
2026-01-06 HCOB Composite PMI 55.6 54.5 +0.635 Low +2.81
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.0 50.1 -0.081 Medium -2.55
2025-12-30 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.5 -0.673 Low -2.53
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.9 +0.078 Medium +2.47
2026-01-30 Consumer Confidence 75.9 77.0 -0.159 Medium -2.45
2025-12-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.2 -0.607 Low -2.28
2026-02-26 Business Confidence -2.6 -3.2 +0.076 Medium +2.20
2026-01-30 HICP MoM -0.7 -0.8 -0.264 Low -2.03
2026-01-30 HICP MoM -0.7 -0.8 -0.264 Low -2.03
2026-01-30 HICP MoM -0.7 -0.8 -0.264 Low -2.03
2026-02-06 Industrial Production YoY -0.3 4.0 -0.219 Low -1.98
2026-01-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.7 -0.6 +0.202 Low +1.56
2026-01-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.5 +0.089 Medium +1.37
2026-01-02 New Car Sales YoY -2.2 7.5 -0.306 Low -1.23
2026-01-02 Tourist Arrivals YoY 2.1 2.9 -0.301 Low -1.21
2026-02-02 New Car Sales YoY 1.1 2.5 -0.133 Low -1.09
2026-01-09 Business Confidence -3.5 -2.8 -0.102 Medium -0.97
2026-01-30 Current Account 0.21 5.1 -0.103 Low -0.79
2025-12-30 Current Account 7.18 2.6 +0.189 Low +0.71
2026-02-25 Producer Price Index YoY -2.9 -3.2 -0.046 Low -0.64
2025-12-30 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.8 -0.079 Medium -0.60
2026-03-11 Retail Sales YoY 4.0 4.2 -0.020 Low -0.38
2026-02-19 Balance of Trade -5.57 -4.9 -0.007 Medium -0.18
2026-02-27 Current Account 1.8 2.0 -0.011 Low -0.16
2025-12-22 Balance of Trade -4.69 -6.4 +0.014 Medium +0.09
2026-01-20 Balance of Trade -5.68 -5.4 -0.003 Medium -0.03
2025-12-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2025-12-23 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2.8 2.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2025-12-23 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2025-12-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.8 2.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2025-12-30 Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2025-12-30 HICP YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2025-12-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 HICP YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-01-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 HICP MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 CPI 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-15 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-30 CPI 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-01-30 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 CPI 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 Inflation Rate MoM -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM -0.7 -0.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 CPI -0.4 -0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-13 CPI 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 CPI 2.7 2.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 HICP YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-03-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.7 2.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 HICP MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-13 Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms