Spain Economic Surprise Index
-1.2 ▼ vs 1w ago (+0.5)
Spain economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-1.2
1 Week Ago
+0.5
Releases (90d)
80
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with IBEX 35 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Core Inflation Rate YoY +3.86z
- S&P Global Services PMI +0.78z
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI +0.70z
- S&P Global Composite PMI +0.90z
- Employment Change +0.53z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Unemployment Rate -0.71z
- Retail Sales YoY -0.84z
- CPI YoY -2.01z
- HICP MoM -2.17z
- CPI MoM -1.98z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (80 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Unemployment Rate | 10.18 | 9.9 | -0.709 | High | -53.16 |
| 2026-09-29 | Retail Sales YoY | -0.4 | 0.4 | -0.840 | High | -32.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.8 | +3.863 | Low | +24.15 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.3 | 56.8 | +0.779 | Medium | +23.44 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.0 | 50.1 | +0.702 | Medium | +19.26 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56.8 | 54.9 | +0.900 | Low | +13.54 |
| 2026-07-30 | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.2 | -2.008 | Medium | -12.84 |
| 2026-08-13 | HICP MoM | 0.0 | -0.1 | -2.174 | Low | -9.61 |
| 2026-08-13 | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | -1.975 | Low | -8.73 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 57.8 | 59.0 | -0.600 | Medium | -8.62 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | 50.3 | -0.622 | Medium | -8.53 |
| 2026-09-02 | Employment Change | 44.419 | 15.4 | +0.526 | Medium | +7.38 |
| 2026-09-29 | Business Confidence | -1.6 | -4.3 | +0.268 | Medium | +7.02 |
| 2026-08-28 | CPI YoY | 4.3 | 4.2 | -0.510 | Medium | -6.38 |
| 2026-09-01 | New Car Sales YoY | 11.8 | 2.5 | +0.927 | Low | +6.35 |
| 2026-09-01 | New Car Sales YoY | 11.8 | 2.5 | +0.927 | Low | +6.35 |
| 2026-08-28 | HICP YoY | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.477 | Medium | +5.96 |
| 2026-09-10 | Consumer Confidence | 84.1 | 81.5 | +0.352 | Medium | +5.95 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | +0.900 | Medium | +5.76 |
| 2026-08-13 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.0 | -0.1 | -1.243 | Low | -5.50 |
| 2026-08-13 | CPI YoY | 3.6 | 3.5 | -0.612 | Medium | -5.41 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 55.8 | 57.4 | -0.725 | Low | -5.21 |
| 2026-08-13 | HICP YoY | 3.9 | 3.8 | -0.577 | Medium | -5.10 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.7 | 2.5 | +1.542 | Low | +4.93 |
| 2026-08-28 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.9 | 0.5 | -0.751 | Low | -4.70 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.7 | 2.5 | +0.486 | High | +4.66 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.6 | +0.469 | High | +4.50 |
| 2026-08-28 | CPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.658 | Low | -4.11 |
| 2026-10-02 | Employment Change | 23.587 | 17.6 | +0.095 | High | +4.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | Employment Change | 19.5 | -20.3 | +0.548 | Medium | +3.93 |
| 2026-07-30 | HICP YoY | 3.8 | 3.7 | -0.593 | Medium | -3.79 |
| 2026-08-28 | Retail Sales YoY | -0.3 | 0.9 | -0.560 | Low | -3.50 |
| 2026-07-30 | HICP MoM | -0.1 | -0.2 | -1.087 | Low | -3.48 |
| 2026-08-28 | HICP MoM | 0.6 | 0.8 | +0.543 | Low | +3.40 |
| 2026-08-03 | New Car Sales YoY | 3.7 | -1.7 | +0.792 | Low | +2.78 |
| 2026-08-03 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 2.9 | 9.8 | -0.791 | Low | -2.77 |
| 2026-10-01 | New Car Sales YoY | 10.2 | 5.7 | +0.197 | Low | +2.70 |
| 2026-09-25 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | -0.225 | Low | -2.68 |
| 2026-10-26 | Producer Price Index YoY | 18.3 | 15.3 | -0.098 | Low | -2.39 |
| 2026-09-24 | Producer Price Index YoY | 13.2 | 9.6 | -0.187 | Low | -2.18 |
| 2026-07-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.622 | Low | -1.99 |
| 2026-08-13 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.445 | Low | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.207 | Low | -1.96 |
| 2026-08-28 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.8 | +0.311 | Low | +1.94 |
| 2026-08-28 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.148 | Medium | -1.85 |
| 2026-07-30 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 2.9 | -0.563 | Low | -1.80 |
| 2026-08-25 | Producer Price Index YoY | 9.2 | 5.8 | -0.292 | Low | -1.70 |
| 2026-08-28 | Business Confidence | -3.9 | -3.0 | -0.128 | Medium | -1.60 |
| 2026-08-28 | Business Confidence | -3.9 | -3.0 | -0.128 | Medium | -1.60 |
| 2026-09-30 | Current Account | 5.91 | 3.0 | +0.109 | Low | +1.46 |
| 2026-10-06 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.5 | 2.6 | -0.088 | Low | -1.35 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 4.6 | 4.0 | +0.168 | Low | +1.15 |
| 2026-09-10 | Industrial Production YoY | 2.3 | 1.6 | +0.091 | Low | +0.77 |
| 2026-08-28 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.3 | 4.2 | -0.054 | Medium | -0.68 |
| 2026-09-15 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 4.6 | 4.5 | -0.065 | Low | -0.61 |
| 2026-10-20 | Balance of Trade | -7.81 | -6.4 | -0.012 | Medium | -0.52 |
| 2026-08-06 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 2.5 | -0.116 | Low | -0.44 |
| 2026-09-22 | Balance of Trade | -5.22 | -8.1 | +0.020 | Medium | +0.44 |
| 2026-07-30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | -0.067 | Medium | -0.43 |
| 2026-08-28 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.063 | Low | +0.40 |
| 2026-08-13 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 3.8 | -0.077 | Low | -0.34 |
| 2026-08-13 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.6 | 3.5 | -0.065 | Low | -0.29 |
| 2026-07-30 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.7 | -0.079 | Low | -0.25 |
| 2026-08-31 | Current Account | 2.41 | 3.6 | -0.037 | Low | -0.25 |
| 2026-07-31 | Current Account | 1.84 | 4.5 | -0.066 | Low | -0.22 |
| 2026-08-18 | Balance of Trade | -7.69 | -6.3 | -0.012 | Medium | -0.12 |
| 2026-07-30 | Business Confidence | -2.6 | -2.7 | +0.016 | Medium | +0.10 |
| 2026-07-30 | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.3 | 4.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.7 | 0.7 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 5.0 | 5.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.9 | 4.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |