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Economic Surprises › European Union
European Union -2.7 ▬ vs 1w ago (-2.9)
European Union economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-2.7
1 Week Ago
-2.9
Releases (90d)
209
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (209 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-04-23 S&P Global Services PMI 47.4 49.8 -2.212 Medium -59.28
2026-04-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.6 50.2 -1.893 Medium -50.72
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.978 High -46.19
2026-04-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.2 50.8 +1.666 Medium +44.65
2026-04-29 Services Sentiment 0.9 3.5 -2.840 Low -43.70
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 41.7 45.5 -2.019 Low -37.37
2026-03-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.4 49.4 +2.448 Medium +32.80
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.2 -1.022 Medium -32.20
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.9 -1.009 Medium -31.77
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.9 -0.654 High -30.89
2026-04-28 Consumer Inflation Expectation 4.0 2.9 -1.977 Low -29.73
2026-03-03 CPI YoY 1.9 1.7 -2.373 High -29.35
2026-05-19 Balance of Trade 7.8 5.4 +0.449 Medium +21.92
2026-03-20 Current Account s.a 37.9 17.2 +3.231 Low +19.73
2026-04-01 Unemployment Rate 6.2 6.1 -1.169 Medium -18.84
2026-03-13 Industrial Production MoM -1.5 0.6 -1.515 Medium -15.74
2026-04-23 New Car Sales YoY 12.5 5.5 +0.584 Medium +15.63
2026-04-22 Consumer Confidence -20.6 -17.9 -0.566 Medium -14.82
2026-04-22 Government Budget to GDP -2.9 -3.2 +0.555 Medium +14.53
2026-03-30 Consumer Inflation Expectation 43.4 32.0 -1.857 Low -14.29
2026-03-20 Balance of Trade -1.9 12.8 -1.159 Medium -14.16
2026-03-31 CPI YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.840 Medium +13.23
2026-05-06 Producer Price Index YoY 2.1 1.8 -0.714 Low -12.92
2026-03-24 S&P Global Services PMI 50.1 51.1 -0.898 Medium -12.03
2026-03-19 Construction Output YoY -1.9 -0.2 -1.871 Low -11.17
2026-04-21 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index -20.4 -3.6 -0.424 Medium -10.85
2026-04-29 Selling Price Expectations 31.1 26.0 -0.679 Low -10.46
2026-04-08 S&P Global Construction PMI 44.6 46.6 -1.037 Low -9.83
2026-03-04 Unemployment Rate 6.1 6.2 +1.150 Medium +9.71
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.543 Low +9.13
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.543 Low +9.13
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.543 Low +9.13
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.543 Low +9.13
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.543 Low +9.13
2026-03-30 Selling Price Expectations 19.7 15.0 -1.085 Low -8.35
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.173 Low +7.80
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.173 Low +7.80
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.173 Low +7.80
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.173 Low +7.80
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.173 Low +7.80
2026-03-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 50.5 51.0 -0.582 Medium -7.80
2026-05-07 Retail Sales MoM -0.1 -0.3 +0.208 Medium +7.72
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.4 -0.921 Medium -7.60
2026-03-24 New Car Sales YoY 1.4 -6.0 +0.565 Medium +7.58
2026-03-30 Services Sentiment 4.9 3.9 +0.980 Low +7.54
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index MoM 0.7 0.2 -1.750 Low -7.38
2026-02-20 Negotiated Wage Growth 2.95 2.0 +1.036 Medium +6.63
2026-03-23 Consumer Confidence -16.3 -14.4 -0.495 Medium -6.48
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.0 +0.967 Medium +6.19
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.698 Medium -6.17
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.698 Medium -6.17
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.698 Medium -6.17
2026-05-13 Industrial Production MoM 0.2 0.3 -0.144 Medium -6.14
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.681 Medium -6.02
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.681 Medium -6.02
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.681 Medium -6.02
2026-02-20 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.0 +0.931 Medium +5.95
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 2.9 -0.114 High -5.38
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 49.9 +0.832 Medium +5.32
2026-04-17 Current Account s.a 25.0 29.8 -0.432 Low -5.04
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 1.7 -0.389 High -4.81
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.0 +0.738 Medium +4.72
2026-02-26 Services Sentiment 5.0 7.5 -1.274 Low -4.68
2026-04-29 Loans to Companies YoY 3.2 2.8 +0.296 Low +4.55
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.8 48.6 +0.244 Low +4.42
2026-02-20 PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.668 Medium +4.27
2026-02-20 PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.668 Medium +4.27
2026-02-20 PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.668 Medium +4.27
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY -1.2 1.4 -0.809 Low -4.20
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index YoY -2.1 -2.7 -0.952 Low -4.02
2026-03-20 Current Account 13.0 7.5 +0.644 Low +3.93
2026-02-20 HCOB Composite PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.571 Medium +3.65
2026-03-05 Retail Sales MoM -0.1 0.3 -0.417 Medium -3.60
2026-02-19 Current Account 34.6 15.1 +1.134 Low +3.54
2026-02-26 Selling Price Expectations 11.5 9.0 -0.962 Low -3.53
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 47.6 47.4 +0.194 Low +3.50
2026-02-26 Consumer Inflation Expectation 25.8 22.0 -0.900 Low -3.31
2026-05-07 Retail Sales YoY 1.2 1.0 +0.177 Low +3.28
2026-04-17 Current Account 21.09 16.0 +0.279 Low +3.26
2026-04-15 Industrial Production MoM 0.4 0.3 +0.144 Medium +3.21
2026-04-29 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.209 Low -3.21
2026-03-31 Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.6 +0.127 High +3.00
2026-03-06 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.652 Low -2.88
2026-04-30 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.3 +0.089 Medium +2.80
2026-03-31 Inflation Rate MoM 1.2 1.4 +0.176 Medium +2.76
2026-04-07 S&P Global Composite PMI 50.7 50.5 +0.235 Low +2.18
2026-05-13 Industrial Production YoY -2.1 -1.7 -0.103 Low -2.18
2026-04-07 Sentix Investors Sentiment -19.2 -7.5 -0.232 Low -2.15
2026-05-12 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index -9.1 -20.0 +0.050 Medium +2.06
2026-02-27 Consumer Inflation Expectation 2.6 2.9 +0.539 Low +2.03
2026-03-06 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.453 Low -2.00
2026-04-15 Industrial Production YoY -0.6 -1.0 +0.174 Low +1.94
2026-02-26 Private sector loans 3.0 3.1 -0.517 Low -1.90
2026-02-26 Private sector loans 3.0 3.1 -0.517 Low -1.90
2026-02-26 Private sector loans 3.0 3.1 -0.517 Low -1.90
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.4 +0.235 Low +1.90
2026-04-29 Consumer Inflation Expectation 49.1 48.0 -0.119 Low -1.84
2026-04-29 Economic Sentiment 93.0 95.2 -0.058 Medium -1.80
2026-04-20 Construction Output YoY -1.9 -1.2 -0.128 Low -1.61
2026-03-18 HICP MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.270 Low +1.57
2026-03-03 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.2 -0.186 Medium -1.53
2026-04-16 Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.5 -0.132 Low -1.51
2026-03-26 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.209 Low -1.46
2026-03-31 CPI 101.96 102.1 +0.061 High +1.43
2026-03-17 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index -8.5 24.0 -0.123 Medium -1.40
2026-03-26 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.0 3.3 -0.199 Low -1.40
2026-02-19 Construction Output YoY -0.9 -0.3 -0.440 Low -1.38
2026-03-31 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.085 Medium +1.34
2026-04-16 Inflation Rate MoM 1.3 1.2 -0.102 Low -1.17
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.132 Medium +1.12
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.132 Medium +1.12
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.132 Medium +1.12
2026-02-26 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.3 2.9 +0.302 Low +1.11
2026-04-22 Government Debt to GDP 87.8 87.6 -0.042 Medium -1.11
2026-04-29 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.2 3.1 +0.071 Low +1.09
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.176 Low +1.02
2026-02-19 Consumer Confidence -12.2 -11.7 -0.160 Medium -1.00
2026-02-25 Inflation Rate MoM -0.6 -0.5 +0.246 Low +0.88
2026-02-20 Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.132 Medium -0.85
2026-02-20 Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.132 Medium -0.85
2026-02-20 Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.132 Medium -0.85
2026-04-07 S&P Global Services PMI 50.2 50.1 +0.092 Low +0.85
2026-02-19 Consumer Confidence -12.2 -11.8 -0.127 Medium -0.79
2026-02-26 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.209 Low -0.77
2026-02-20 HCOB Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.117 Medium -0.75
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.089 Medium +0.75
2026-03-19 Labour Cost Index YoY 3.3 3.0 -0.126 Low -0.75
2026-02-26 Loans to Companies YoY 2.8 3.1 -0.200 Low -0.74
2026-02-24 New Car Registrations YoY -3.9 -4.8 +0.101 Medium +0.71
2026-03-05 Retail Sales YoY 2.0 1.7 +0.156 Low +0.68
2026-02-24 New Car Sales YoY -3.9 -4.8 +0.086 Medium +0.60
2026-05-04 Sentix Investors Sentiment -16.4 -20.9 +0.032 Low +0.55
2026-03-26 Loans to Companies YoY 2.9 2.8 +0.074 Low +0.52
2026-04-08 Retail Sales YoY 1.7 1.6 +0.055 Low +0.52
2026-03-04 HCOB Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.117 Low +0.49
2026-04-29 Industrial Sentiment -7.7 -7.2 -0.029 Low -0.45
2026-03-30 Industrial Sentiment -7.0 -8.0 +0.053 Low +0.41
2026-03-03 CPI 100.72 100.5 -0.097 Low -0.40
2026-04-17 Balance of Trade 11.5 11.7 -0.017 Medium -0.40
2026-05-06 Producer Price Index MoM 3.4 3.3 -0.021 Low -0.38
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.089 Low +0.37
2026-03-19 Wage Growth YoY 3.0 2.8 +0.058 Low +0.35
2026-04-30 CPI 103.05 103.0 -0.021 Low -0.34
2026-03-05 HCOB Construction PMI 46.0 45.9 +0.070 Low +0.30
2026-02-26 Economic Sentiment 98.3 99.8 -0.038 Medium -0.28
2026-02-26 Industrial Sentiment -7.1 -6.1 -0.069 Low -0.25
2026-03-05 S&P Global Construction PMI 46.0 45.9 +0.053 Low +0.23
2026-04-16 CPI 101.99 101.96 -0.013 Low -0.15
2026-05-20 CPI 103.04 103.05 +0.004 Low +0.11
2026-03-30 Economic Sentiment 96.6 96.8 -0.005 Medium -0.08
2026-02-25 CPI 100.05 100.08 +0.013 Low +0.05
2026-03-18 CPI 100.71 100.72 +0.004 Low +0.03
2026-02-25 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-25 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-25 CPI YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-26 Consumer Confidence -12.2 -12.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 HCOB Composite PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-06 Employment Change QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-06 Employment Change YoY 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-09 Sentix Investors Sentiment -3.1 -3.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-09 Sentix Investors Sentiment -3.1 -3.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-18 HICP YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-18 CPI YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-03-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 1.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-19 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 Marginal Lending Rate 2.4 2.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-27 Consumer Inflation Expectation 2.5 2.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-30 Consumer Confidence -16.3 -16.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-08 Producer Price Index MoM -0.7 -0.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-08 Retail Sales MoM -0.2 -0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-08 Producer Price Index YoY -3.0 -3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-16 HICP MoM 0.7 0.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-16 HICP YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-16 CPI YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-16 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-29 Consumer Confidence -20.6 -20.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-30 Unemployment Rate 6.2 6.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-30 Marginal Lending Rate 2.4 2.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-30 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.2 52.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-13 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-13 Employment Change YoY 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-13 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-13 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-13 Employment Change QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-20 CPI YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-05-20 HICP YoY 2.1 2.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 HICP MoM 0.8 0.8 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms