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Economic Surprises › European Union
European Union +2.9 ▬ vs 1w ago (+3.2)
European Union economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+2.9
1 Week Ago
+3.2
Releases (90d)
216
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (216 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-02-04 CPI 100.08 129.0 +9.713 Low +83.89
2026-03-20 Current Account s.a 37.9 17.2 +3.198 Low +76.34
2026-02-13 Employment Change YoY 0.7 0.5 +1.981 High +63.18
2026-03-13 Industrial Production MoM -1.5 0.6 -1.505 Medium -61.13
2026-03-20 Balance of Trade -1.9 12.8 -1.152 Medium -55.00
2026-02-13 Employment Change QoQ 0.2 0.1 +1.605 High +51.18
2026-03-19 Construction Output YoY -1.9 -0.2 -1.861 Low -43.41
2026-03-04 Unemployment Rate 6.1 6.2 +1.151 Medium +37.98
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.469 Low +34.64
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.469 Low +34.64
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.469 Low +34.64
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.469 Low +34.64
2026-02-25 HICP MoM -0.8 2.3 +2.469 Low +34.64
2026-01-21 New Car Registrations YoY 5.8 1.0 +2.598 Medium +32.48
2026-02-09 Sentix Investors Sentiment 4.2 -0.2 +3.179 Low +30.82
2026-02-09 Sentix Investors Sentiment 4.2 -0.2 +3.179 Low +30.82
2026-02-09 Sentix Investors Sentiment 4.2 -0.2 +3.179 Low +30.82
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.116 Low +29.69
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.116 Low +29.69
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.116 Low +29.69
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.116 Low +29.69
2026-02-25 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.116 Low +29.69
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.4 -0.913 Medium -29.42
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index MoM 0.7 0.2 -1.737 Low -28.65
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.0 +1.075 Medium +26.87
2026-02-20 Negotiated Wage Growth 2.95 2.0 +1.036 Medium +25.91
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.700 Medium -24.17
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.700 Medium -24.17
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.700 Medium -24.17
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.689 Medium -23.82
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.689 Medium -23.82
2026-03-06 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.689 Medium -23.82
2026-02-20 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.0 +0.931 Medium +23.27
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.3 0.2 +0.975 High +22.51
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 49.9 +0.832 Medium +20.80
2026-02-26 Services Sentiment 5.0 7.5 -1.317 Low -18.91
2026-03-03 Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 1.7 -0.386 High -18.68
2026-02-20 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.0 +0.738 Medium +18.45
2026-01-30 Unemployment Rate 6.2 6.3 +1.133 Medium +17.44
2026-02-20 PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.668 Medium +16.69
2026-02-20 PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.668 Medium +16.69
2026-02-20 PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.668 Medium +16.69
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY -1.2 1.4 -0.804 Low -16.32
2026-02-05 HCOB Construction PMI 45.3 48.0 -1.815 Low -16.05
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.2 +1.034 Medium +15.91
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.2 +1.034 Medium +15.91
2026-03-04 Producer Price Index YoY -2.1 -2.7 -0.947 Low -15.62
2026-01-08 Unemployment Rate 6.3 6.4 +1.115 High +15.49
2026-03-20 Current Account 13.0 7.5 +0.641 Low +15.29
2026-01-23 HCOB Services PMI 51.9 52.9 -1.147 Medium -15.01
2026-01-23 HCOB Composite PMI 51.5 52.3 -1.125 Medium -14.73
2026-02-20 HCOB Composite PMI 51.9 51.5 +0.571 Medium +14.29
2026-03-05 Retail Sales MoM -0.1 0.3 -0.414 Medium -13.98
2026-02-19 Current Account 34.6 15.1 +1.128 Low +13.78
2026-02-26 Selling Price Expectations 11.5 9.0 -0.953 Low -13.68
2026-01-23 Services PMI 51.9 52.6 -0.913 Medium -11.95
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.3 1.2 +0.758 Medium +11.66
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.3 1.2 +0.758 Medium +11.66
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.3 1.2 +0.488 High +11.26
2026-03-06 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.650 Low -11.23
2026-01-07 HICP YoY 2.3 2.4 +1.940 Low +8.77
2026-02-05 Retail Sales MoM -0.5 -0.2 -0.466 Medium -8.24
2026-02-17 Economic Sentiment 39.4 45.7 -0.346 Medium -8.08
2026-02-17 Economic Sentiment 39.4 45.7 -0.346 Medium -8.08
2026-02-17 Economic Sentiment 39.4 45.7 -0.346 Medium -8.08
2026-03-06 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.450 Low -7.78
2026-02-26 Private sector loans 3.0 3.1 -0.517 Low -7.43
2026-02-26 Private sector loans 3.0 3.1 -0.517 Low -7.43
2026-02-26 Private sector loans 3.0 3.1 -0.517 Low -7.43
2026-02-13 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.2 0.3 -0.650 Low -6.91
2026-02-04 Services PMI 51.6 51.9 -0.397 Medium -6.85
2026-02-04 Services PMI 51.6 51.9 -0.397 Medium -6.85
2026-03-03 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.2 -0.185 Medium -5.96
2026-03-18 HICP MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.262 Low +5.96
2026-01-29 Services Sentiment 7.2 6.0 +0.790 Low +5.94
2026-01-06 PMI 51.5 51.9 -0.663 Medium -5.86
2026-02-04 PMI 51.3 51.5 -0.334 Medium -5.77
2026-02-04 PMI 51.3 51.5 -0.334 Medium -5.77
2026-01-09 Retail Sales YoY 2.3 1.6 +0.385 High +5.47
2026-03-17 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index -8.5 24.0 -0.122 Medium -5.44
2026-02-19 Construction Output YoY -0.9 -0.3 -0.438 Low -5.35
2026-02-04 Inflation Rate MoM -0.5 -0.4 +0.304 Medium +5.26
2026-01-08 Producer Price Index MoM 0.5 0.2 -1.042 Low -4.82
2026-02-13 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.450 Low -4.79
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 51.6 51.9 -0.273 Medium -4.72
2026-01-23 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 49.4 49.7 -0.351 Medium -4.60
2026-01-09 Retail Sales MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.311 High +4.41
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.132 Medium +4.37
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.132 Medium +4.37
2026-03-04 Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.132 Medium +4.37
2026-02-26 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.3 2.9 +0.300 Low +4.30
2026-01-22 Consumer Confidence -12.4 -13.6 +0.329 Medium +4.21
2026-01-29 Private sector loans 3.0 2.9 +0.553 Low +4.16
2026-02-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.3 51.5 -0.230 Medium -3.97
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.174 Low +3.96
2026-02-19 Consumer Confidence -12.2 -11.7 -0.159 Medium -3.89
2026-01-15 Balance of Trade 9.9 15.2 -0.350 Medium -3.81
2026-01-07 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.3 +0.406 Medium +3.67
2026-01-23 Manufacturing PMI 49.4 49.7 -0.278 Medium -3.65
2026-01-20 Economic Sentiment 40.8 36.7 +0.281 Medium +3.43
2026-02-25 Inflation Rate MoM -0.6 -0.5 +0.243 Low +3.42
2026-02-20 Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.132 Medium -3.31
2026-02-20 Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.132 Medium -3.31
2026-02-20 Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.132 Medium -3.31
2026-02-04 Producer Price Index YoY -2.1 -2.3 -0.371 Low -3.20
2026-02-19 Consumer Confidence -12.2 -11.8 -0.126 Medium -3.09
2026-02-04 HCOB Services PMI 51.6 51.9 -0.351 Low -3.03
2026-01-02 Manufacturing PMI 48.8 49.2 -0.375 Medium -3.02
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.091 Medium +3.01
2026-02-26 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.206 Low -2.95
2026-03-19 Labour Cost Index YoY 3.3 3.0 -0.126 Low -2.93
2026-02-20 HCOB Services PMI 51.8 51.9 -0.117 Medium -2.92
2026-01-20 Current Account 12.6 27.0 -0.466 Low -2.85
2026-02-26 Loans to Companies YoY 2.8 3.1 -0.198 Low -2.84
2026-02-24 New Car Registrations YoY -3.9 -4.8 +0.101 Medium +2.78
2026-02-26 Consumer Inflation Expectation 25.8 22.0 -0.191 Low -2.74
2026-03-05 Retail Sales YoY 2.0 1.7 +0.155 Low +2.62
2026-01-20 Construction Output YoY -0.8 0.9 -0.414 Low -2.53
2026-01-06 HCOB Composite PMI 51.5 51.9 -0.567 Low -2.51
2026-02-04 HCOB Composite PMI 51.3 51.5 -0.286 Low -2.47
2026-01-02 Private sector loans 2.9 2.8 +0.573 Low +2.31
2026-01-06 Services PMI 52.4 52.6 -0.261 Medium -2.31
2026-01-23 PMI 51.5 51.6 -0.167 Medium -2.18
2026-01-08 Producer Price Index YoY -1.7 -1.9 -0.449 Low -2.08
2026-03-04 HCOB Services PMI 51.9 51.8 +0.117 Low +1.93
2026-01-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 48.8 49.2 -0.473 Low -1.91
2026-01-15 Industrial Production MoM 0.7 0.5 +0.172 Medium +1.87
2026-01-08 Consumer Confidence -13.1 -14.6 +0.383 Low +1.77
2026-02-27 Consumer Inflation Expectation 2.6 2.9 +0.114 Low +1.68
2026-01-29 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 2.9 +0.220 Low +1.65
2026-01-07 HCOB Construction PMI 47.4 46.9 +0.344 Low +1.56
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.4 +0.093 Medium +1.54
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.4 +0.093 Medium +1.54
2026-02-04 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.3 +0.088 Medium +1.53
2026-03-03 CPI 100.72 100.5 -0.095 Low -1.53
2026-02-05 Retail Sales YoY 1.3 1.6 -0.165 Low -1.46
2026-03-19 Wage Growth YoY 3.0 2.8 +0.058 Low +1.36
2026-03-05 HCOB Construction PMI 46.0 45.9 +0.070 Low +1.19
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.4 +0.136 Low +1.12
2026-01-29 M3 Money Supply YoY 2.8 3.0 -0.145 Low -1.09
2026-02-26 Economic Sentiment 98.3 99.8 -0.038 Medium -1.08
2026-02-13 Balance of Trade 12.6 12.0 +0.050 Medium +1.07
2026-01-06 HCOB Services PMI 52.4 52.6 -0.231 Low -1.02
2026-02-26 Industrial Sentiment -7.1 -6.1 -0.069 Low -0.99
2026-01-19 Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 2.0 +0.164 Low +0.98
2026-01-02 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.0 2.7 +0.241 Low +0.97
2026-02-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.4 +0.118 Low +0.97
2026-01-08 Services Sentiment 5.6 5.9 -0.201 Low -0.93
2026-01-29 Economic Sentiment 99.4 97.0 +0.062 Medium +0.93
2026-01-02 Loans to Households YoY 2.9 2.8 +0.228 Low +0.92
2026-01-07 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.085 Medium +0.77
2026-02-02 Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.4 +0.093 Low +0.77
2026-01-08 Selling Price Expectations 10.9 10.4 -0.165 Low -0.76
2026-01-08 Consumer Inflation Expectation 26.7 23.6 -0.145 Low -0.67
2026-02-16 Industrial Production MoM -1.4 -1.5 +0.029 Medium +0.65
2026-01-15 Industrial Production YoY 2.5 2.0 +0.108 Low +0.59
2026-01-02 Loans to Companies YoY 3.1 2.9 +0.141 Low +0.57
2026-01-29 Industrial Sentiment -6.8 -8.1 +0.067 Low +0.51
2026-01-12 Sentix Investors Sentiment -1.8 -5.1 +0.093 Low +0.47
2026-01-20 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 40.8 29.0 +0.037 Medium +0.45
2026-02-16 Industrial Production YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.033 Low -0.38
2025-12-23 New Car Registrations YoY 2.1 1.9 +0.057 Medium +0.36
2026-03-18 CPI 100.71 100.72 +0.004 High +0.29
2026-02-17 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 39.4 45.2 -0.012 Medium -0.27
2026-01-08 Consumer Inflation Expectation 2.8 2.7 -0.041 Low -0.19
2026-01-07 CPI 129.56 129.6 +0.013 High +0.18
2026-02-25 CPI 100.05 100.08 +0.013 Low +0.18
2026-01-19 CPI 129.54 129.56 +0.007 High +0.12
2026-01-08 Economic Sentiment 96.7 97.0 -0.008 Medium -0.07
2026-01-08 Industrial Sentiment -9.0 -9.1 +0.005 Low +0.02
2026-01-07 Inflation Rate YoY 2.0 2.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-01-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-19 HICP MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-19 HICP YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-01-29 Consumer Confidence -12.4 -12.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-30 Consumer Inflation Expectation 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-04 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-02-04 Producer Price Index MoM -0.3 -0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 Marginal Lending Rate 2.4 2.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-05 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-13 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.3 1.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-13 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.3 1.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-25 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-25 Inflation Rate YoY 1.7 1.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-26 Consumer Confidence -12.2 -12.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 HCOB Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-02 Manufacturing PMI 50.8 50.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 HCOB Composite PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 PMI 51.9 51.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-06 Employment Change YoY 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-06 Employment Change QoQ 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-09 Sentix Investors Sentiment -3.1 -3.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-09 Sentix Investors Sentiment -3.1 -3.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-18 HICP YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-18 Inflation Rate YoY 1.9 1.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-19 Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 Marginal Lending Rate 2.4 2.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-19 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms