European Union Economic Surprise Index
-1.4 ▼ vs 1w ago (-0.1)
European Union economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-1.4
1 Week Ago
-0.1
Releases (90d)
132
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- GDP Growth Rate YoY +5.09z
- Balance of Trade +2.48z
- Balance of Trade +4.29z
- CPI MoM +2.62z
- Gross Domestic Product YoY +3.98z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Industrial Production YoY -4.17z
- Balance of Trade -1.83z
- S&P Global Composite PMI -0.90z
- Current Account s.a -1.68z
- S&P Global Services PMI -0.71z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (132 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Industrial Production YoY | -1.1 | -0.1 | -4.167 | Low | -78.94 |
| 2026-10-16 | Balance of Trade | -16.1 | 14.7 | -1.831 | Medium | -71.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.0 | 0.5 | +5.095 | High | +48.89 |
| 2026-09-15 | Balance of Trade | 14.2 | 3.7 | +2.480 | Medium | +46.99 |
| 2026-10-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 51.9 | 52.7 | -0.900 | Medium | -41.02 |
| 2026-08-14 | Balance of Trade | 8.6 | -2.2 | +4.290 | Medium | +38.80 |
| 2026-10-20 | Current Account s.a | 8.71 | 25.2 | -1.681 | Low | -35.76 |
| 2026-10-23 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.7 | 52.5 | -0.711 | Medium | -32.41 |
| 2026-08-19 | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 2.8 | +2.621 | Medium | +26.61 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.0 | 0.5 | +3.978 | Medium | +25.44 |
| 2026-10-23 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 52.7 | -0.367 | Medium | -16.75 |
| 2026-09-01 | Core CPI YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | +1.212 | Medium | +16.62 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | +1.721 | High | +16.51 |
| 2026-09-01 | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.3 | -1.125 | Medium | -15.43 |
| 2026-09-04 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.947 | Medium | -13.92 |
| 2026-08-14 | Employment Change YoY | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.844 | High | -11.46 |
| 2026-10-20 | Current Account | 7.7 | 16.9 | -0.483 | Low | -10.27 |
| 2026-08-06 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | -1.263 | Medium | -9.49 |
| 2026-10-22 | Consumer Confidence | -17.9 | -17.0 | -0.202 | Medium | -9.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | Private sector loans YoY | 3.1 | 2.9 | +1.399 | Low | +8.54 |
| 2026-09-29 | Selling Price Expectations | 20.3 | 25.0 | +0.648 | Low | +8.48 |
| 2026-07-31 | Core CPI YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | -1.262 | Medium | -8.26 |
| 2026-10-06 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.178 | High | -8.20 |
| 2026-09-07 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 1.0 | +1.019 | Low | +8.02 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.2 | +1.221 | Medium | +7.81 |
| 2026-10-20 | Construction Output YoY | 1.4 | -2.3 | +0.364 | Low | +7.74 |
| 2026-08-19 | Current Account s.a | 35.1 | 22.1 | +1.512 | Low | +7.67 |
| 2026-09-25 | Private sector loans YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | -0.634 | Low | -7.57 |
| 2026-08-28 | Selling Price Expectations | 16.4 | 25.0 | +1.186 | Low | +7.41 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unemployment Rate | 6.3 | 6.2 | -1.144 | Medium | -7.31 |
| 2026-09-03 | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.8 | 4.7 | -1.016 | Low | -7.30 |
| 2026-10-06 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.158 | High | -7.29 |
| 2026-09-24 | New Car Sales YoY | 3.0 | 7.5 | -0.306 | Medium | -7.13 |
| 2026-09-24 | New Car Sales YoY | 4.5 | 11.0 | -0.301 | Medium | -7.02 |
| 2026-09-07 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.6 | 0.4 | +0.861 | Low | +6.78 |
| 2026-09-16 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.1 | -0.2 | +0.219 | Medium | +4.24 |
| 2026-09-16 | Industrial Production YoY | 0.0 | -0.1 | +0.417 | Low | +4.04 |
| 2026-08-13 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.0 | -0.1 | +0.437 | Medium | +3.86 |
| 2026-10-23 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.1 | 3.2 | +0.164 | Low | +3.73 |
| 2026-07-30 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 30.3 | 38.0 | +1.062 | Low | +3.40 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.9 | 52.7 | +0.245 | Low | +3.36 |
| 2026-07-30 | Selling Price Expectations | 17.7 | 25.0 | +1.007 | Low | +3.22 |
| 2026-10-06 | S&P Global Construction PMI | 43.4 | 43.0 | +0.209 | Low | +3.22 |
| 2026-09-04 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 1.1 | -0.404 | Low | -2.97 |
| 2026-08-27 | Loans to Households YoY | 3.1 | 2.9 | +0.459 | Low | +2.80 |
| 2026-08-28 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 33.0 | 36.0 | +0.437 | Low | +2.73 |
| 2026-09-18 | Current Account s.a | 27.6 | 30.7 | -0.259 | Low | -2.63 |
| 2026-08-20 | Construction Output YoY | -0.7 | 0.6 | -0.490 | Low | -2.55 |
| 2026-09-25 | Loans to Households YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | -0.208 | Low | -2.48 |
| 2026-09-18 | Construction Output YoY | -2.0 | -1.0 | -0.226 | Low | -2.30 |
| 2026-08-19 | Current Account | 46.9 | 32.0 | +0.413 | Low | +2.10 |
| 2026-08-13 | Industrial Production YoY | 0.1 | -0.8 | +0.469 | Low | +2.07 |
| 2026-08-27 | Loans to Companies YoY | 4.4 | 3.8 | +0.337 | Low | +2.06 |
| 2026-08-21 | Consumer Confidence | -15.5 | -16.3 | +0.187 | Medium | +1.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | Sentix Investors Sentiment | 5.1 | 2.1 | +0.228 | Low | +1.80 |
| 2026-10-22 | New Car Sales YoY | 9.3 | 10.1 | -0.040 | Medium | -1.80 |
| 2026-09-03 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.237 | Low | -1.70 |
| 2026-09-25 | Loans to Companies YoY | 4.2 | 4.5 | -0.142 | Low | -1.70 |
| 2026-09-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.122 | Medium | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-27 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | +0.065 | Low | +1.64 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.0 | 52.1 | -0.114 | Medium | -1.63 |
| 2026-08-10 | Sentix Investors Sentiment | 0.9 | -0.7 | +0.365 | Low | +1.51 |
| 2026-09-03 | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.6 | 51.7 | -0.090 | Medium | -1.30 |
| 2026-08-28 | Services Sentiment | 5.8 | 4.9 | +0.199 | Low | +1.25 |
| 2026-09-01 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.083 | Medium | +1.14 |
| 2026-09-29 | Industrial Sentiment | -3.8 | -4.7 | +0.082 | Low | +1.08 |
| 2026-09-17 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.102 | Low | +1.01 |
| 2026-08-06 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.7 | 1.0 | -0.266 | Low | -1.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.187 | Low | -1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | Sentix Investors Sentiment | 2.7 | 4.5 | -0.064 | Low | -0.96 |
| 2026-09-01 | CPI | 103.7 | 103.6 | -0.044 | High | -0.91 |
| 2026-09-29 | Services Sentiment | 6.1 | 6.5 | -0.067 | Low | -0.88 |
| 2026-10-20 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 18.5 | 23.6 | -0.020 | Medium | -0.85 |
| 2026-07-30 | Services Sentiment | 4.7 | 3.8 | +0.257 | Low | +0.82 |
| 2026-10-05 | Producer Price Index YoY | 8.2 | 8.1 | -0.054 | Low | -0.81 |
| 2026-09-29 | Economic Sentiment | 97.9 | 99.0 | -0.029 | Medium | -0.75 |
| 2026-08-21 | Negotiated Wage Growth | 2.44 | 2.5 | -0.059 | Medium | -0.62 |
| 2026-09-15 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 25.8 | 39.9 | -0.033 | Medium | -0.62 |
| 2026-07-31 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | -0.087 | Medium | -0.57 |
| 2026-09-16 | Wage Growth YoY | 3.0 | 3.2 | -0.053 | Low | -0.51 |
| 2026-09-16 | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.0 | -0.044 | Low | -0.43 |
| 2026-08-28 | Economic Sentiment | 98.4 | 97.5 | +0.024 | Medium | +0.30 |
| 2026-08-18 | ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 31.4 | 25.4 | +0.022 | Medium | +0.22 |
| 2026-07-30 | Industrial Sentiment | -6.1 | -7.0 | +0.055 | Low | +0.18 |
| 2026-07-30 | Economic Sentiment | 96.9 | 96.0 | +0.024 | Medium | +0.16 |
| 2026-08-19 | CPI | 103.24 | 103.22 | -0.009 | High | -0.14 |
| 2026-09-18 | Current Account | 36.5 | 36.0 | +0.012 | Low | +0.13 |
| 2026-08-28 | Industrial Sentiment | -5.3 | -5.2 | -0.008 | Low | -0.05 |
| 2026-07-30 | Consumer Confidence | -15.9 | -15.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | CPI | 103.22 | 103.22 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.6 | 4.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-05 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Employment Change QoQ | 0.1 | 0.1 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.4 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | HICP YoY | 2.2 | 2.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | Core CPI YoY | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | Labour Cost Index YoY | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | Consumer Confidence | -15.5 | -15.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | CPI YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | Employment Change YoY | 0.5 | 0.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | Employment Change QoQ | 0.1 | 0.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | Deposit Facility Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | Marginal Lending Rate | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | Interest Rate Decision | 2.65 | 2.65 | +0.000 | High | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | M3 Money Supply YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | Consumer Confidence | -16.5 | -16.5 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | Unemployment Rate | 6.4 | 6.4 | -0.000 | High | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Services PMI | 53.0 | 53.0 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 53.1 | 53.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.9 | 1.9 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.8 | 3.8 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-27 | Loans to Households YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-27 | Private sector loans YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-10-27 | Loans to Companies YoY | 4.2 | 4.2 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |