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Economic Surprises › European Union
European Union +1.3 ▲ vs 1w ago (-1.1)
European Union economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.3
1 Week Ago
-1.1
Releases (90d)
170
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (170 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-16 Balance of Trade -7.8 -1.6 -3.730 Medium -141.33
2026-07-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.9 50.3 +1.826 Medium +83.24
2026-07-24 S&P Global Services PMI 51.6 49.8 +1.640 Medium +74.76
2026-05-28 Services Sentiment 2.2 0.2 +10.734 Low +65.56
2026-07-01 CPI YoY 2.8 3.0 +1.490 High +59.89
2026-06-05 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.3 0.8 -3.658 Medium -53.75
2026-06-05 Gross Domestic Product QoQ -0.2 0.1 -3.601 Medium -52.92
2026-07-01 Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 0.2 +1.842 Medium +49.36
2026-07-17 HICP YoY 2.1 2.2 +2.137 Low +41.43
2026-06-05 GDP Growth Rate QoQ -0.2 0.1 -5.166 Low -37.95
2026-07-15 Industrial Production MoM -0.2 0.2 -0.869 Medium -32.18
2026-07-02 Unemployment Rate 6.2 6.3 +1.129 Medium +30.97
2026-07-17 Current Account -6.2 8.5 -1.516 Low -29.40
2026-07-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 +0.624 Medium +28.44
2026-06-05 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.3 0.8 -3.503 Low -25.74
2026-07-24 Consumer Inflation Expectation 3.0 3.7 +0.980 Low +22.33
2026-06-15 Balance of Trade -1.0 7.8 -1.086 Medium -20.10
2026-06-29 Private sector loans YoY 3.1 2.9 +1.523 Low +19.49
2026-07-27 Private sector loans YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.713 Low -17.41
2026-05-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 47.5 48.8 -1.529 Medium -15.89
2026-06-01 Unemployment Rate 6.3 6.2 -1.148 Medium -15.37
2026-06-04 Retail Sales YoY 1.0 0.3 +2.056 Low +14.76
2026-05-21 S&P Global Services PMI 46.4 47.7 -1.237 Medium -12.85
2026-06-29 Consumer Inflation Expectation 34.0 42.0 +0.987 Low +12.62
2026-07-15 Industrial Production YoY -1.2 -0.5 -0.613 Low -11.34
2026-06-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.5 49.1 +0.468 Medium +10.42
2026-07-23 Consumer Confidence -15.9 -16.8 +0.203 Medium +9.03
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 47.7 46.4 +1.271 Low +8.92
2026-07-01 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 3.0 +0.222 High +8.91
2026-06-04 S&P Global Construction PMI 43.7 41.5 +1.205 Low +8.65
2026-06-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.5 47.5 +1.208 Low +8.48
2026-06-02 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.2 +0.614 Medium +8.42
2026-05-28 Consumer Inflation Expectation 40.5 55.0 +1.365 Low +8.34
2026-06-23 S&P Global Services PMI 48.9 48.5 +0.374 Medium +8.33
2026-06-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.6 -0.374 Medium -8.32
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.861 High -8.26
2026-07-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 50.0 49.5 +0.580 Low +8.14
2026-07-23 New Car Sales YoY 13.6 9.9 +0.182 Medium +8.09
2026-06-29 Selling Price Expectations 22.3 27.0 +0.604 Low +7.73
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 41.7 45.5 -1.899 Low -7.14
2026-07-03 S&P Global Services PMI 49.4 48.9 +0.464 Low +6.51
2026-07-20 Construction Output YoY 1.2 0.5 +0.312 Low +6.49
2026-06-26 Consumer Inflation Expectation 3.5 3.9 +0.531 Low +6.34
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.9 -0.623 High -5.98
2026-06-29 Loans to Households YoY 3.1 2.9 +0.454 Low +5.80
2026-05-28 Selling Price Expectations 27.4 37.0 +0.900 Low +5.50
2026-06-15 Industrial Production MoM 0.1 0.3 -0.290 Medium -5.36
2026-06-29 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.2 2.7 +0.409 Low +5.23
2026-07-27 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.212 Low -5.19
2026-05-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.8 -0.496 Medium -5.16
2026-06-15 Industrial Production YoY 0.3 -1.7 +0.515 Low +4.76
2026-07-01 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.6 +0.159 Medium +4.25
2026-05-19 Balance of Trade 7.8 5.4 +0.428 Medium +4.24
2026-07-21 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 23.4 11.2 +0.100 Medium +4.24
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.9 -0.650 Medium -4.16
2026-06-16 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index 9.5 -7.2 +0.212 Medium +4.02
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.600 Medium -3.84
2026-06-18 Current Account 14.9 25.6 -0.367 Low -3.64
2026-06-18 Construction Output YoY 0.9 -1.6 +0.349 Low +3.46
2026-05-21 Consumer Confidence -19.0 -20.8 +0.327 Medium +3.40
2026-07-06 Retail Sales MoM 0.2 0.3 -0.105 Medium -3.16
2026-06-29 Loans to Companies YoY 4.0 3.6 +0.235 Low +3.00
2026-06-01 M3 Money Supply YoY 2.7 3.3 -0.402 Low -2.69
2026-05-06 Producer Price Index YoY 2.1 1.8 -0.719 Low -2.64
2026-04-29 Services Sentiment 0.9 3.5 -0.797 Low -2.49
2026-06-03 Producer Price Index MoM 0.6 0.4 -0.352 Low -2.47
2026-06-01 Consumer Inflation Expectation 4.0 4.3 +0.361 Low +2.42
2026-07-06 Producer Price Index YoY 5.9 5.7 -0.151 Low -2.28
2026-04-29 Private sector loans YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.713 Low -2.23
2026-05-22 Negotiated Wage Growth 2.46 2.7 -0.206 Medium -2.19
2026-04-29 Selling Price Expectations 31.1 26.0 -0.681 Low -2.13
2026-07-06 Sentix Investors Sentiment -3.1 -14.5 +0.120 Low +1.81
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.4 +0.250 Low +1.68
2026-07-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.3 +0.125 Low +1.68
2026-07-06 S&P Global Construction PMI 42.8 43.0 -0.106 Low -1.59
2026-05-07 Retail Sales MoM -0.1 -0.3 +0.210 Medium +1.58
2026-06-23 New Car Sales YoY 3.2 2.8 +0.069 Medium +1.55
2026-06-04 Retail Sales MoM -0.4 -0.3 -0.105 Medium -1.51
2026-06-01 Loans to Companies YoY 3.4 3.1 +0.204 Low +1.37
2026-06-16 Wage Growth YoY 3.4 2.9 +0.143 Low +1.36
2026-05-27 New Car Sales YoY 5.1 6.6 -0.110 Medium -1.32
2026-07-27 Loans to Companies YoY 4.0 4.1 -0.051 Low -1.26
2026-05-13 Industrial Production MoM 0.2 0.3 -0.145 Medium -1.25
2026-06-02 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.4 -0.086 Medium -1.18
2026-05-21 Current Account 24.1 32.0 -0.216 Low -1.12
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 2.9 -0.115 High -1.10
2026-04-29 Loans to Companies YoY 3.2 2.8 +0.302 Low +0.94
2026-06-22 Consumer Confidence -17.7 -17.5 -0.043 Medium -0.94
2026-06-29 Services Sentiment 3.2 3.0 +0.072 Low +0.92
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.8 48.6 +0.236 Low +0.87
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.5 -0.082 Low -0.80
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 47.6 47.4 +0.191 Low +0.70
2026-05-21 Labour Cost Index YoY 3.3 3.0 -0.129 Low -0.67
2026-04-29 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 3.1 -0.212 Low -0.66
2026-05-07 Retail Sales YoY 1.2 1.0 +0.176 Low +0.66
2026-06-03 Producer Price Index YoY 4.9 4.8 -0.090 Low -0.63
2026-05-21 Construction Output YoY -1.2 -2.6 +0.120 Low +0.62
2026-04-30 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.3 +0.090 Medium +0.57
2026-06-29 Economic Sentiment 95.0 94.3 +0.019 Medium +0.49
2026-05-13 Industrial Production YoY -2.1 -1.7 -0.103 Low -0.44
2026-05-12 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index -9.1 -20.0 +0.050 Medium +0.42
2026-07-17 CPI 103.02 103.07 +0.022 Low +0.42
2026-06-29 Industrial Sentiment -7.7 -7.2 -0.030 Low -0.38
2026-04-29 Consumer Inflation Expectation 49.1 48.0 -0.119 Low -0.37
2026-04-29 Economic Sentiment 93.0 95.2 -0.060 Medium -0.37
2026-06-16 Labour Cost Index YoY 3.2 3.3 +0.039 Low +0.37
2026-05-28 Economic Sentiment 93.5 92.8 +0.020 Medium +0.24
2026-04-29 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.2 3.1 +0.071 Low +0.22
2026-06-02 CPI 103.15 103.2 +0.022 Low +0.15
2026-05-04 Sentix Investors Sentiment -16.4 -20.9 +0.033 Low +0.12
2026-04-29 Industrial Sentiment -7.7 -7.2 -0.030 Low -0.09
2026-05-06 Producer Price Index MoM 3.4 3.3 -0.021 Low -0.08
2026-06-17 CPI 103.13 103.15 +0.009 Low +0.08
2026-04-30 CPI 103.05 103.0 -0.022 Low -0.07
2026-06-08 Sentix Investors Sentiment -13.4 -13.8 +0.004 Low +0.03
2026-05-20 CPI 103.04 103.05 +0.004 Low +0.02
2026-04-29 Consumer Confidence -20.6 -20.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-30 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-30 CPI YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-30 Unemployment Rate 6.2 6.2 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-04-30 Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 Marginal Lending Rate 2.4 2.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-30 Deposit Facility Rate 2.0 2.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15 2.15 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.2 52.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-13 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-13 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-13 Employment Change YoY 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-13 Employment Change QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.8 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-13 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 CPI MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2 2.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 CPI YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate MoM 1.0 1.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 HICP YoY 2.1 2.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-20 HICP MoM 0.8 0.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-28 Consumer Confidence -19.0 -19.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-28 Industrial Sentiment -8.0 -8.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-01 Loans to Households YoY 3.0 3.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-02 CPI YoY 3.2 3.2 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-06-02 Inflation Rate YoY 3.2 3.2 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-06-05 Employment Change YoY 0.5 0.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-05 Employment Change QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-11 Marginal Lending Rate 2.65 2.65 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-11 Deposit Facility Rate 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-11 Interest Rate Decision 2.4 2.4 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-17 HICP MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-17 HICP YoY 2.3 2.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-17 CPI MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate YoY 3.2 3.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-17 CPI YoY 3.2 3.2 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-29 Consumer Confidence -17.7 -17.7 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-01 CPI 103.07 103.07 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-06 Retail Sales YoY 1.6 1.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-06 Producer Price Index MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.4 2.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-17 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-17 Inflation Rate MoM -0.1 -0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-17 CPI MoM -0.1 -0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-17 HICP MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-17 CPI YoY 2.8 2.8 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-07-23 Interest Rate Decision 2.4 2.4 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-23 Deposit Facility Rate 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-23 Marginal Lending Rate 2.65 2.65 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-23 Interest Rate Decision 2.4 2.4 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-23 Deposit Facility Rate 2.25 2.25 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-27 M3 Money Supply YoY 3.3 3.3 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms