Mexico
+11.7
▼
vs 1w ago (+14.3)
Mexico economic data has been beating expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have generally come in above analyst estimates, suggesting the economy may be stronger than consensus forecasts.
Current Score
+11.7
1 Week Ago
+14.3
Releases (90d)
105
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with IPC Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Inflation Rate YoY +2.46z
- Inflation Rate MoM +2.42z
- CPI MoM +2.31z
- CPI YoY +2.05z
- Aggregate Demand YoY +3.63z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Industrial Production YoY -2.76z
- Retail Sales MoM -0.77z
- Unemployment Rate n.s.a -1.38z
- Consumer Confidence -0.56z
- Business Confidence -0.57z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (105 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.37 | 3.52 | +2.456 | Medium | +79.16 |
| 2026-07-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.27 | -0.13 | +2.420 | Medium | +78.02 |
| 2026-07-09 | CPI MoM | -0.27 | -0.13 | +2.314 | Medium | +74.59 |
| 2026-07-09 | CPI YoY | 3.37 | 3.52 | +2.050 | Medium | +66.07 |
| 2026-07-10 | Industrial Production YoY | -0.7 | -0.1 | -2.758 | Low | -45.49 |
| 2026-06-18 | Aggregate Demand YoY | 5.0 | 0.2 | +3.626 | Low | +35.98 |
| 2026-06-24 | CPI | -0.11 | 0.1 | +2.689 | Low | +30.65 |
| 2026-07-09 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.03 | 4.1 | +1.855 | Low | +29.90 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM | -0.11 | 0.1 | +2.584 | Low | +29.45 |
| 2026-07-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 47.8 | +2.190 | Low | +29.34 |
| 2026-06-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.21 | -0.12 | +1.686 | Medium | +27.17 |
| 2026-06-09 | CPI MoM | -0.21 | -0.12 | +1.612 | Medium | +25.97 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY | 3.55 | 3.77 | +1.886 | Low | +21.50 |
| 2026-06-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.94 | 4.03 | +1.287 | Medium | +20.74 |
| 2026-06-23 | Economic Activity MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.768 | Low | +19.69 |
| 2026-06-09 | CPI YoY | 3.94 | 4.03 | +1.074 | Medium | +17.31 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.2 | 0.1 | +1.615 | Medium | +17.17 |
| 2026-07-21 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.769 | Low | -16.36 |
| 2026-06-25 | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 2.8 | 2.6 | -1.380 | Low | -16.10 |
| 2026-07-09 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.24 | 0.31 | +0.998 | Low | +16.08 |
| 2026-07-03 | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 45.5 | -0.560 | Medium | -15.72 |
| 2026-07-01 | Business Confidence | 48.0 | 48.9 | -0.569 | Medium | -15.25 |
| 2026-06-11 | Industrial Production YoY | 2.3 | -0.8 | +1.781 | Low | +15.03 |
| 2026-07-24 | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.641 | Low | -14.61 |
| 2026-05-22 | Core CPI | 0.13 | 0.17 | +2.591 | Low | +13.78 |
| 2026-06-25 | Unemployment Rate | 2.8 | 2.6 | -1.179 | Low | -13.75 |
| 2026-07-24 | Unemployment Rate | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.547 | Low | -12.47 |
| 2026-06-11 | Industrial Production MoM | 2.1 | 0.4 | +1.086 | Low | +9.17 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 0.1 | 0.8 | -1.413 | Medium | -9.04 |
| 2026-06-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 47.5 | +1.322 | Low | +8.86 |
| 2026-07-27 | Balance of Trade | 4.09 | 2.28 | +0.181 | Medium | +8.86 |
| 2026-07-23 | CPI | 0.07 | 0.1 | +0.384 | Low | +8.56 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM | 0.07 | 0.1 | +0.369 | Low | +8.22 |
| 2026-05-22 | Economic Activity YoY | 1.4 | 0.5 | +1.534 | Low | +8.16 |
| 2026-05-28 | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 2.5 | 2.7 | +1.329 | Low | +8.12 |
| 2026-06-18 | Aggregate Demand QoQ | 0.3 | -0.4 | +0.785 | Low | +7.79 |
| 2026-04-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.1 | 0.8 | -1.090 | Medium | -6.97 |
| 2026-05-28 | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.7 | +1.135 | Low | +6.93 |
| 2026-05-22 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.2 | 0.1 | +1.246 | Low | +6.62 |
| 2026-06-05 | Consumer Confidence | 43.5 | 44.8 | -0.435 | Medium | -6.39 |
| 2026-06-24 | Core CPI | 0.19 | 0.2 | +0.551 | Low | +6.28 |
| 2026-05-25 | Balance of Trade | 4.52 | 1.41 | +0.504 | Medium | +5.74 |
| 2026-07-21 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | 2.5 | -0.262 | Low | -5.57 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.827 | Medium | -5.29 |
| 2026-06-01 | Business Confidence | 47.5 | 48.1 | -0.386 | Medium | -5.17 |
| 2026-05-07 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.45 | 4.5 | +0.640 | Medium | +4.81 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.12 | +0.207 | Low | +4.61 |
| 2026-04-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.682 | Medium | -4.36 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.12 | 4.14 | +0.376 | Low | +4.29 |
| 2026-05-11 | Auto Production YoY | 2.1 | 0.3 | +1.028 | Low | +4.24 |
| 2026-05-07 | CPI YoY | 4.45 | 4.5 | +0.534 | Medium | +4.02 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.731 | Low | +3.89 |
| 2026-05-11 | Auto Exports YoY | 11.4 | -3.1 | +0.921 | Low | +3.80 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | -0.6 | -0.8 | +0.345 | Medium | +3.66 |
| 2026-07-07 | Auto Exports YoY | -9.2 | -4.2 | -0.234 | Low | -3.61 |
| 2026-07-08 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 255.05 | 254.0 | +0.229 | Low | +3.60 |
| 2026-06-04 | Gross Fixed Investment MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | +0.485 | Low | +3.48 |
| 2026-06-18 | Private Spending YoY | 2.2 | 0.7 | +0.344 | Low | +3.41 |
| 2026-05-04 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 47.7 | 49.3 | -0.971 | Low | -3.40 |
| 2026-05-07 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.25 | +0.450 | Medium | +3.38 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gross Fixed Investment YoY | 5.9 | 3.8 | +0.204 | Low | +3.07 |
| 2026-06-09 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.22 | 0.24 | +0.368 | Low | +2.97 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.13 | 0.17 | +0.540 | Low | +2.87 |
| 2026-06-26 | Balance of Trade | 2.259 | 4.63 | -0.117 | Medium | -2.79 |
| 2026-06-08 | Auto Production YoY | -3.7 | -1.3 | -0.316 | Low | -2.49 |
| 2026-06-03 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 256.6 | 255.0 | +0.347 | Low | +2.44 |
| 2026-05-12 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.511 | Low | -2.16 |
| 2026-06-23 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | +0.192 | Low | +2.14 |
| 2026-06-09 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.19 | 4.2 | +0.259 | Low | +2.08 |
| 2026-06-23 | Economic Activity YoY | 2.3 | 1.9 | +0.179 | Low | +2.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Economic Activity MoM | -0.3 | -0.4 | +0.088 | Low | +1.97 |
| 2026-07-07 | Auto Production YoY | -1.89 | -7.0 | +0.125 | Low | +1.92 |
| 2026-05-06 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 256.3 | 254.0 | +0.501 | Low | +1.84 |
| 2026-05-08 | Consumer Confidence | 44.4 | 45.0 | -0.200 | Medium | -1.54 |
| 2026-06-23 | Retail Sales YoY | 4.4 | 3.7 | +0.138 | Low | +1.53 |
| 2026-05-22 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | -0.6 | -0.8 | +0.284 | Low | +1.51 |
| 2026-07-10 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.085 | Low | -1.41 |
| 2026-05-06 | Gross Fixed Investment YoY | -4.2 | -2.1 | -0.370 | Low | -1.36 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.19 | 0.2 | +0.115 | Low | +1.31 |
| 2026-05-06 | Gross Fixed Investment MoM | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.270 | Low | -0.99 |
| 2026-05-07 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 4.26 | 4.27 | +0.254 | Low | +0.96 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY | 4.11 | 4.13 | +0.157 | Low | +0.83 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gross Fixed Investment MoM | 4.0 | 3.0 | +0.054 | Low | +0.81 |
| 2026-05-21 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.154 | Low | -0.80 |
| 2026-05-25 | Current Account | 7702.0 | -400.0 | +0.085 | Low | +0.49 |
| 2026-05-04 | Business Confidence | 47.9 | 48.0 | -0.064 | Medium | -0.45 |
| 2026-05-22 | CPI | -0.16 | -0.15 | +0.085 | Low | +0.45 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM | -0.16 | -0.15 | +0.082 | Low | +0.44 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fiscal Balance | -391.3 | -81.0 | -0.034 | Low | -0.44 |
| 2026-06-04 | Gross Fixed Investment YoY | -2.6 | -3.1 | +0.060 | Low | +0.43 |
| 2026-05-12 | Industrial Production YoY | -1.3 | -1.5 | +0.061 | Low | +0.26 |
| 2026-05-21 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | -0.047 | Low | -0.24 |
| 2026-06-08 | Auto Exports YoY | 1.7 | 1.6 | +0.012 | Low | +0.10 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fiscal Balance | -217.1 | -99.0 | -0.011 | Low | -0.07 |
| 2026-05-25 | Current Account | -15878.0 | -9379.0 | -0.003 | Low | -0.02 |
| 2026-04-30 | Fiscal Balance | -110.1 | -105.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.31 | 0.31 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | CPI MoM | 0.31 | 0.31 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Interest Rate Decision | 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | Private Spending QoQ | -0.8 | -0.8 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | Interest Rate Decision | 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.16 | 0.16 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Core CPI | 0.16 | 0.16 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.95 | 3.95 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Economic Activity YoY | 1.1 | 1.1 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |