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Economic Surprises › Mexico
Mexico +1.5 ▬ vs 1w ago (+1.3)
Mexico economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+1.5
1 Week Ago
+1.3
Releases (90d)
110
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with IPC Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (110 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-03-09 Inflation Rate YoY 4.02 3.94 -1.183 Medium -43.82
2026-01-09 Inflation Rate YoY 3.69 3.9 +3.138 Medium +29.73
2026-01-09 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.33 4.5 +4.081 Low +19.33
2026-01-22 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.43 0.2 -2.600 Low -16.63
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY -1.1 1.7 -0.775 Low -15.74
2026-03-20 Aggregate Demand QoQ 2.4 1.0 +0.616 Low +14.70
2026-03-09 Auto Production YoY -1.8 0.5 -0.777 Low -14.38
2026-03-05 Consumer Confidence 44.4 43.2 +0.411 Medium +13.86
2026-03-09 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.43 -0.371 Medium -13.74
2026-02-27 Balance of Trade -6.481 -2.2 -0.441 Medium -12.97
2026-02-24 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.52 4.57 +0.826 Low +11.33
2026-03-03 Foreign Exchange Reserves 255.6 253.0 +0.565 Low +9.10
2026-02-09 Inflation Rate YoY 3.79 3.82 +0.458 Medium +8.88
2026-02-26 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.587 Low -8.42
2026-01-26 Unemployment Rate 2.4 2.6 +1.173 Low +8.23
2026-01-22 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.47 4.4 -1.201 Low -7.68
2026-03-09 Auto Exports YoY -4.4 4.0 -0.407 Low -7.53
2026-01-08 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.41 0.3 -1.604 Low -7.42
2026-03-20 Aggregate Demand YoY 4.5 1.8 +0.300 Low +7.15
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.8 0.6 +0.442 Medium +6.80
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.8 0.6 +0.442 Medium +6.80
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.6 1.3 +0.405 Medium +6.23
2026-01-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.6 1.3 +0.405 Medium +6.23
2026-03-05 Gross Fixed Investment YoY 0.0 -2.8 +0.364 Low +6.14
2026-01-23 Economic Activity YoY -0.1 1.5 -0.909 Low -5.95
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.219 Medium +5.88
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.219 Medium +5.88
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.219 Medium +5.88
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.219 Medium +5.88
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.8 0.6 +0.375 Medium +5.77
2026-02-24 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.22 0.27 +0.419 Low +5.74
2026-02-03 Business Confidence 48.4 48.9 -0.313 Medium -5.28
2026-02-11 Industrial Production MoM 0.2 -0.2 +0.506 Low +5.14
2026-01-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 46.1 48.0 -1.265 Low -5.10
2026-02-23 Economic Activity MoM 0.4 0.2 +0.352 Low +4.72
2026-02-09 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.52 4.5 -0.480 Low -4.65
2026-01-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.6 1.3 +0.289 Medium +4.45
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.166 Medium +4.44
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.166 Medium +4.44
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.166 Medium +4.44
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.166 Medium +4.44
2025-12-23 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.34 4.42 +1.367 Low +4.37
2025-12-23 Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY 3.72 3.87 +1.269 Low +4.06
2026-02-10 Auto Production YoY -2.7 1.9 -0.409 Low -4.05
2026-02-11 Industrial Production YoY 2.4 1.3 +0.398 Low +4.04
2026-01-09 Auto Exports YoY -14.6 -2.8 -0.816 Low -3.86
2026-01-08 CPI 0.28 0.4 +0.403 Medium +3.73
2026-02-06 Consumer Confidence 44.0 44.6 -0.199 Medium -3.60
2026-02-24 CPI 0.25 0.21 -0.256 Low -3.50
2026-02-24 CPI 0.25 0.21 -0.256 Low -3.50
2026-01-23 Economic Activity MoM -0.2 0.4 -0.529 Low -3.46
2026-02-24 Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY 3.92 3.89 -0.253 Low -3.46
2026-02-24 CPI 0.22 0.27 +0.248 Low +3.41
2026-02-24 CPI 0.22 0.27 +0.248 Low +3.41
2026-02-24 Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM 0.25 0.21 -0.237 Low -3.25
2026-02-09 Inflation Rate MoM 0.38 0.41 +0.167 Medium +3.23
2026-02-23 Economic Activity YoY 3.3 2.6 +0.229 Low +3.07
2026-01-09 Industrial Production MoM 0.6 -0.4 +0.632 Low +3.00
2026-03-20 Private Spending YoY 4.0 2.3 +0.117 Low +2.79
2026-01-21 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 0.3 +0.445 Low +2.78
2026-02-10 Auto Exports YoY 2.3 -7.1 +0.256 Low +2.54
2026-01-09 Auto Production YoY 8.5 -5.0 +0.456 Low +2.16
2026-02-23 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.157 Low +2.10
2026-03-20 Private Spending QoQ 1.0 1.6 -0.088 Low -2.09
2026-03-02 Business Confidence 48.1 48.2 -0.063 Medium -2.00
2025-12-23 CPI 0.17 0.31 +0.606 Low +1.94
2026-02-09 CPI 0.38 0.41 +0.098 Medium +1.90
2026-02-23 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.141 Low +1.88
2025-12-22 Economic Activity YoY 1.7 1.0 +0.596 Low +1.86
2025-12-23 Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM 0.17 0.31 +0.562 Low +1.80
2026-02-20 Retail Sales MoM -0.1 -0.4 +0.143 Low +1.79
2026-02-03 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 46.3 46.0 +0.208 Low +1.76
2026-03-09 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.46 0.47 +0.093 Low +1.72
2026-01-21 Retail Sales YoY 4.4 3.2 +0.269 Low +1.68
2026-01-22 Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY 3.77 3.8 +0.259 Low +1.65
2026-02-02 Foreign Exchange Reserves 251.9 251.0 +0.197 Low +1.63
2025-12-23 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.31 0.39 +0.464 Low +1.48
2026-01-08 Inflation Rate MoM 0.28 0.3 +0.152 Medium +1.41
2026-01-22 CPI 0.31 0.37 +0.218 Low +1.39
2025-12-22 Economic Activity MoM 1.0 0.5 +0.352 Low +1.10
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.1 47.0 +0.068 Low +1.07
2026-02-20 Retail Sales YoY 4.3 3.9 +0.074 Low +0.92
2026-01-06 Consumer Confidence 44.7 45.0 -0.099 Medium -0.87
2026-03-05 Gross Fixed Investment MoM 0.5 0.7 -0.045 Low -0.76
2026-02-09 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.59 -0.074 Low -0.72
2026-03-09 CPI 0.46 0.47 +0.029 Low +0.53
2026-03-09 CPI 0.46 0.47 +0.029 Low +0.53
2026-01-02 Business Confidence 48.9 48.8 +0.063 Medium +0.51
2025-12-23 Balance of Trade 0.663 0.5 +0.074 Medium +0.47
2026-02-05 Gross Fixed Investment YoY -6.4 -5.6 -0.052 Low -0.46
2026-01-15 Gross Fixed Investment YoY -5.5 -4.6 -0.071 Low -0.39
2026-02-05 Gross Fixed Investment MoM 0.4 0.5 -0.032 Low -0.28
2026-01-22 Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM 0.31 0.3 -0.041 Low -0.27
2026-02-09 CPI 3.79 3.82 +0.011 Medium +0.20
2026-02-09 CPI 3.79 3.82 +0.011 Medium +0.20
2026-03-02 Fiscal Balance -19.3 -1100.0 +0.008 Low +0.13
2026-01-27 Balance of Trade 2.43 2.5 -0.006 Medium -0.09
2026-02-25 Current Account 7702.0 11520.0 -0.001 Low -0.02
2026-02-25 Current Account 7702.0 11520.0 -0.001 Low -0.02
2026-02-27 Current Account 7702.0 11520.0 -0.001 Low -0.02
2025-12-24 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.7 -0.000 Low -0.00
2025-12-30 Fiscal Balance -1083.1 -1100.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-09 Industrial Production YoY -0.8 -0.8 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-15 Gross Fixed Investment MoM 0.9 0.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-30 Fiscal Balance -1382.4 -1350.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 7.0 7.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-09 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.5 4.5 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms