Mexico Economic Surprise Index
+2.0 ▬ vs 1w ago (+2.1)
Mexico economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days,
releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+2.0
1 Week Ago
+2.1
Releases (90d)
95
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with IPC Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
- Unemployment Rate n.s.a +1.30z
- Unemployment Rate +1.03z
- Core Inflation Rate YoY +1.15z
- Retail Sales MoM +0.58z
- Economic Activity MoM +1.07z
▼ Top Negative Surprises
- Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY -1.69z
- Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM -0.89z
- Producer Price Index MoM -1.05z
- Producer Price Index YoY -1.03z
- Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY -2.75z
All Releases — 90 Day Window (95 events)
| Date | Event | Actual | Estimate | Surprise Z | Impact | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.78 | 3.7 | -1.685 | Low | -37.53 |
| 2026-10-22 | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 2.8 | 3.0 | +1.305 | Low | +29.07 |
| 2026-10-22 | Unemployment Rate | 2.8 | 3.0 | +1.030 | Low | +22.93 |
| 2026-10-22 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.25 | 0.18 | -0.892 | Low | -19.86 |
| 2026-10-08 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.75 | 3.79 | +1.148 | Low | +18.50 |
| 2026-10-08 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.37 | 0.2 | -1.049 | Low | -16.90 |
| 2026-10-08 | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.05 | 3.3 | -1.030 | Low | -16.60 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY | 3.26 | 3.0 | -2.750 | Low | -15.67 |
| 2026-10-07 | Auto Production YoY | -15.1 | 3.49 | -0.922 | Low | -14.52 |
| 2026-10-21 | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.3 | +0.582 | Low | +12.67 |
| 2026-09-24 | Economic Activity MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | +1.069 | Low | +12.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.24 | +0.740 | Low | +11.93 |
| 2026-09-09 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.26 | 3.3 | +0.704 | Medium | +11.62 |
| 2026-09-09 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.88 | 3.93 | +1.383 | Low | +11.41 |
| 2026-10-08 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.45 | 3.47 | +0.335 | Medium | +10.80 |
| 2026-10-21 | Retail Sales YoY | 3.3 | 2.0 | +0.477 | Low | +10.39 |
| 2026-10-07 | Auto Exports YoY | -11.9 | -2.9 | -0.615 | Low | -9.68 |
| 2026-10-23 | Economic Activity MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | +0.356 | Low | +8.12 |
| 2026-10-07 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 255.95 | 253.7 | +0.499 | Low | +7.86 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.08 | 0.2 | +1.376 | Low | +7.84 |
| 2026-09-09 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.25 | +0.454 | Medium | +7.49 |
| 2026-09-09 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.16 | 0.2 | +0.888 | Low | +7.33 |
| 2026-09-03 | Consumer Confidence | 46.1 | 44.7 | +0.475 | Medium | +6.82 |
| 2026-10-27 | Balance of Trade | -0.606 | -0.4 | -0.119 | Medium | -5.94 |
| 2026-08-03 | Business Confidence | 48.0 | 46.8 | +0.805 | Medium | +5.65 |
| 2026-09-09 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 258.48 | 255.4 | +0.679 | Low | +5.60 |
| 2026-09-24 | Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY | 3.42 | 3.37 | -0.471 | Low | -5.49 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.2 | 1.5 | +0.784 | Medium | +5.02 |
| 2026-08-07 | Auto Exports YoY | -9.7 | 1.8 | -1.266 | Low | -4.87 |
| 2026-09-24 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.79 | 3.81 | +0.409 | Low | +4.77 |
| 2026-09-18 | Aggregate Demand QoQ | 1.7 | 0.9 | +0.408 | Low | +4.14 |
| 2026-09-09 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.99 | 2.7 | -0.487 | Low | -4.01 |
| 2026-09-24 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.17 | 0.2 | +0.344 | Low | +4.01 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 2.9 | 3.0 | +0.653 | Low | +3.99 |
| 2026-10-22 | Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY | 3.62 | 3.6 | -0.176 | Low | -3.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM | 0.33 | 0.26 | -0.334 | Low | -3.90 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.2 | 1.5 | +0.587 | Medium | +3.75 |
| 2026-08-05 | Gross Fixed Investment YoY | 1.1 | 0.3 | +0.992 | Low | +3.65 |
| 2026-08-27 | Balance of Trade | -0.848 | 3.0 | -0.296 | Medium | -3.61 |
| 2026-09-01 | Business Confidence | 48.1 | 47.7 | +0.263 | Medium | +3.61 |
| 2026-09-24 | Economic Activity YoY | 3.4 | 2.5 | +0.310 | Low | +3.61 |
| 2026-10-01 | Business Confidence | 48.0 | 48.2 | -0.130 | Medium | -3.57 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.621 | Low | +3.54 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.93 | 3.9 | -0.599 | Low | -3.42 |
| 2026-09-28 | Balance of Trade | 0.605 | 1.4 | -0.131 | Medium | -3.35 |
| 2026-09-22 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.291 | Low | -3.24 |
| 2026-08-24 | Economic Activity YoY | 2.8 | 1.7 | +0.556 | Low | +3.17 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unemployment Rate | 2.9 | 3.0 | +0.515 | Low | +3.14 |
| 2026-08-21 | Retail Sales MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.582 | Low | -3.10 |
| 2026-08-07 | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.56 | 3.1 | +0.789 | Low | +3.04 |
| 2026-08-24 | Economic Activity MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.534 | Low | -3.04 |
| 2026-10-22 | Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM | 0.41 | 0.37 | -0.134 | Low | -2.99 |
| 2026-10-12 | Industrial Production YoY | 3.5 | 2.6 | +0.160 | Low | +2.84 |
| 2026-09-04 | Gross Fixed Investment MoM | 1.3 | 0.4 | +0.370 | Low | +2.72 |
| 2026-10-01 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.0 | +0.187 | Low | +2.57 |
| 2026-08-04 | Consumer Confidence | 45.0 | 44.1 | +0.309 | Medium | +2.22 |
| 2026-09-07 | Auto Exports YoY | 1.3 | -3.4 | +0.274 | Low | +2.16 |
| 2026-10-06 | Consumer Confidence | 45.1 | 44.9 | +0.068 | Medium | +2.08 |
| 2026-09-11 | Industrial Production YoY | 2.7 | 1.8 | +0.232 | Low | +2.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.42 | 0.43 | +0.053 | Medium | +1.70 |
| 2026-09-09 | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.06 | -0.5 | -0.201 | Low | -1.66 |
| 2026-09-04 | Gross Fixed Investment YoY | 7.7 | 4.8 | +0.225 | Low | +1.65 |
| 2026-07-30 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 1.3 | +0.223 | Medium | +1.42 |
| 2026-08-07 | Auto Production YoY | -2.2 | 2.3 | -0.339 | Low | -1.30 |
| 2026-10-23 | Economic Activity YoY | 3.3 | 3.1 | +0.055 | Low | +1.26 |
| 2026-09-22 | Retail Sales YoY | 1.8 | 2.1 | -0.105 | Low | -1.17 |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 1.3 | +0.177 | Medium | +1.13 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.096 | Medium | -1.10 |
| 2026-08-11 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.1 | +0.253 | Low | +1.07 |
| 2026-08-07 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.95 | 3.94 | -0.276 | Low | -1.06 |
| 2026-10-05 | Gross Fixed Investment YoY | 6.6 | 5.6 | +0.066 | Low | +1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | Auto Production YoY | -1.4 | -5.1 | +0.126 | Low | +0.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.1 | 2.2 | -0.076 | Medium | -0.87 |
| 2026-08-07 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.23 | 0.22 | -0.202 | Low | -0.78 |
| 2026-08-07 | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.03 | 0.3 | +0.197 | Low | +0.76 |
| 2026-08-21 | Retail Sales YoY | 2.7 | 3.1 | -0.095 | Low | -0.50 |
| 2026-09-18 | Private Spending YoY | 2.1 | 3.0 | -0.049 | Low | -0.50 |
| 2026-08-05 | Gross Fixed Investment MoM | -0.4 | -1.8 | +0.128 | Low | +0.47 |
| 2026-09-18 | Private Spending QoQ | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.044 | Low | -0.45 |
| 2026-08-24 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.077 | Low | -0.44 |
| 2026-08-11 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.086 | Low | -0.36 |
| 2026-08-24 | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 2.1 | 2.2 | -0.057 | Low | -0.33 |
| 2026-08-05 | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 255.49 | 255.3 | +0.042 | Low | +0.15 |
| 2026-08-25 | Current Account | 8927.0 | 2500.0 | +0.011 | Low | +0.06 |
| 2026-09-18 | Aggregate Demand YoY | 5.8 | 6.0 | -0.005 | Low | -0.05 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fiscal Balance | -559.1 | -430.0 | -0.003 | Low | -0.01 |
| 2026-08-06 | Interest Rate Decision | 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | CPI YoY | 3.12 | 3.12 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | CPI MoM | 0.03 | 0.03 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.03 | 0.03 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.12 | 3.12 | -0.000 | Medium | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | Interest Rate Decision | 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.000 | Medium | +0.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | Unemployment Rate | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | Unemployment Rate n.s.a | 3.0 | 3.0 | -0.000 | Low | -0.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | Gross Fixed Investment MoM | 1.4 | 1.4 | +0.000 | Low | +0.00 |