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Economic Surprises › Mexico
Mexico -1.3 ▬ vs 1w ago (-1.3)
Mexico economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
-1.3
1 Week Ago
-1.3
Releases (90d)
105
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with IPC Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (105 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-04-27 Balance of Trade 5.932 0.72 +1.638 Medium +48.14
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.1 0.8 -1.459 Medium -45.94
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.1 0.8 -1.097 Medium -34.56
2026-03-26 Interest Rate Decision 6.75 7.0 -1.901 Medium -26.67
2026-04-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ -0.8 -0.5 -0.810 Medium -25.52
2026-05-07 Inflation Rate YoY 4.45 4.5 +0.651 Medium +24.11
2026-04-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ -0.8 -0.5 -0.678 Medium -21.35
2026-05-11 Auto Production YoY 2.1 0.3 +1.017 Low +20.65
2026-04-23 Retail Sales MoM -0.9 -0.1 -1.523 Low -20.40
2026-05-11 Auto Exports YoY 11.4 -3.1 +0.911 Low +18.50
2026-05-04 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.7 49.3 -1.007 Low -17.39
2026-04-01 Business Confidence 47.8 46.2 +1.068 Medium +17.21
2026-05-07 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.25 +0.459 Medium +16.99
2026-04-24 Economic Activity YoY -0.3 0.7 -1.217 Low -16.68
2026-04-02 Foreign Exchange Reserves 257.8 249.0 +1.932 Low +15.93
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 48.9 46.0 +1.956 Low +15.76
2026-03-24 Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY 4.63 4.35 -2.089 Low -13.99
2026-03-09 Inflation Rate YoY 4.02 3.94 -1.190 Medium -11.27
2026-05-12 Industrial Production MoM -0.6 -0.2 -0.510 Low -10.59
2026-05-06 Foreign Exchange Reserves 256.3 254.0 +0.495 Low +8.95
2026-04-24 Unemployment Rate 2.4 2.5 +0.614 Low +8.42
2026-04-08 Consumer Confidence 44.1 42.9 +0.417 Medium +7.90
2026-05-08 Consumer Confidence 44.4 45.0 -0.199 Medium -7.53
2026-04-09 Auto Production YoY 2.5 -0.7 +0.775 Low +7.51
2026-04-23 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.27 4.3 +0.533 Low +7.15
2026-03-24 CPI 0.62 0.35 -1.047 Low -7.01
2026-04-23 CPI 0.11 0.08 -0.509 Low -6.82
2026-03-24 Economic Activity YoY -0.3 1.6 -1.011 Low -6.77
2026-05-06 Gross Fixed Investment YoY -4.2 -2.1 -0.367 Low -6.63
2026-04-23 Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM 0.11 0.08 -0.469 Low -6.28
2026-03-24 Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM 0.62 0.37 -0.844 Low -5.66
2026-04-09 Inflation Rate YoY 4.59 4.61 +0.254 Medium +4.93
2026-05-06 Gross Fixed Investment MoM -0.8 -0.3 -0.267 Low -4.82
2026-05-07 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.26 4.27 +0.257 Low +4.76
2026-03-27 Balance of Trade -0.463 1.2 -0.314 Medium -4.50
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY -1.1 1.7 -0.780 Low -4.05
2026-04-10 Industrial Production YoY -1.3 -0.7 -0.406 Low -4.03
2026-04-24 Economic Activity MoM 0.1 0.5 -0.285 Low -3.90
2026-03-20 Aggregate Demand QoQ 2.4 1.0 +0.616 Low +3.76
2026-03-09 Auto Production YoY -1.8 0.5 -0.780 Low -3.69
2026-03-05 Consumer Confidence 44.4 43.2 +0.414 Medium +3.57
2026-03-09 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.43 -0.374 Medium -3.54
2026-02-27 Balance of Trade -6.481 -2.2 -0.440 Medium -3.31
2026-04-09 Auto Exports YoY 4.2 -6.0 +0.331 Low +3.21
2026-04-23 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.18 0.2 +0.228 Low +3.05
2026-03-24 Economic Activity MoM -0.9 -0.4 -0.445 Low -2.98
2026-02-24 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.52 4.57 +0.837 Low +2.93
2026-03-23 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 0.3 +0.444 Low +2.91
2026-04-23 Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY 4.53 4.5 -0.216 Low -2.90
2026-03-23 Retail Sales YoY 5.0 3.1 +0.442 Low +2.89
2026-04-09 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.45 4.46 +0.246 Low +2.39
2026-04-23 Retail Sales YoY 3.1 4.1 -0.176 Low -2.36
2026-03-03 Foreign Exchange Reserves 255.6 253.0 +0.562 Low +2.32
2026-03-24 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.46 4.48 +0.341 Low +2.29
2026-05-04 Business Confidence 47.9 48.0 -0.064 Medium -2.22
2026-02-26 Unemployment Rate 2.7 2.6 -0.591 Low -2.17
2026-04-09 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.38 0.4 +0.220 Low +2.14
2026-03-09 Auto Exports YoY -4.4 4.0 -0.409 Low -1.94
2026-04-06 Gross Fixed Investment YoY -3.3 -2.1 -0.210 Low -1.90
2026-03-20 Aggregate Demand YoY 4.5 1.8 +0.300 Low +1.83
2026-03-05 Gross Fixed Investment YoY 0.0 -2.8 +0.367 Low +1.58
2026-02-24 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.22 0.27 +0.421 Low +1.48
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.208 Medium +1.43
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.208 Medium +1.43
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.208 Medium +1.43
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.208 Medium +1.43
2026-05-12 Industrial Production YoY -1.3 -1.5 +0.063 Low +1.31
2026-02-23 Economic Activity MoM 0.4 0.2 +0.356 Low +1.22
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.169 Medium +1.16
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.169 Medium +1.16
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.169 Medium +1.16
2026-02-23 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.169 Medium +1.16
2026-04-09 Inflation Rate MoM 0.86 0.88 +0.052 Medium +1.01
2026-02-24 CPI 0.25 0.21 -0.258 Low -0.91
2026-02-24 CPI 0.25 0.21 -0.258 Low -0.91
2026-02-24 CPI 0.22 0.27 +0.251 Low +0.88
2026-02-24 CPI 0.22 0.27 +0.251 Low +0.88
2026-02-24 Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY 3.92 3.89 -0.250 Low -0.88
2026-04-10 Industrial Production MoM 0.4 0.6 -0.085 Low -0.84
2026-02-24 Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM 0.25 0.21 -0.238 Low -0.83
2026-02-23 Economic Activity YoY 3.3 2.6 +0.229 Low +0.79
2026-03-20 Private Spending YoY 4.0 2.3 +0.117 Low +0.71
2026-02-23 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.8 1.6 +0.157 Low +0.54
2026-03-20 Private Spending QoQ 1.0 1.6 -0.088 Low -0.54
2026-04-06 Gross Fixed Investment MoM -1.1 -0.8 -0.060 Low -0.54
2026-03-02 Business Confidence 48.1 48.2 -0.064 Medium -0.52
2026-02-23 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.9 0.8 +0.141 Low +0.48
2026-02-20 Retail Sales MoM -0.1 -0.4 +0.143 Low +0.46
2026-03-09 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.46 0.47 +0.094 Low +0.44
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.1 47.0 +0.066 Low +0.27
2026-02-20 Retail Sales YoY 4.3 3.9 +0.074 Low +0.24
2026-03-05 Gross Fixed Investment MoM 0.5 0.7 -0.046 Low -0.20
2026-03-09 CPI 0.46 0.47 +0.029 Low +0.14
2026-03-09 CPI 0.46 0.47 +0.029 Low +0.14
2026-03-02 Fiscal Balance -19.3 -1100.0 +0.009 Low +0.03
2026-03-30 Fiscal Balance -70.0 -100.0 +0.003 Low +0.02
2026-02-27 Current Account 7702.0 11520.0 -0.001 Low -0.01
2026-04-30 Fiscal Balance -110.1 -105.0 -0.000 Low -0.01
2026-02-25 Current Account 7702.0 11520.0 -0.001 Low -0.00
2026-02-25 Current Account 7702.0 11520.0 -0.001 Low -0.00
2026-03-09 Core Inflation Rate YoY 4.5 4.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-24 Mid-month Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.22 0.22 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-27 Unemployment Rate 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-07 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.31 0.31 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-05-07 Interest Rate Decision 6.5 6.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms