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Economic Surprises › United Kingdom
United Kingdom +4.5 ▲ vs 1w ago (+1.5)
United Kingdom economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+4.5
1 Week Ago
+1.5
Releases (90d)
221
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (221 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-07-24 S&P Global Services PMI 51.8 49.4 +2.072 High +141.66
2026-07-24 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 -0.3 +1.273 High +87.03
2026-07-22 PPI Input MoM -2.0 0.2 +3.991 Low +86.87
2026-07-22 CPI YoY 2.6 2.7 +0.919 High +60.00
2026-07-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.1 49.7 +2.372 Low +54.07
2026-07-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.0 +0.755 High +51.62
2026-06-23 S&P Global Services PMI 48.7 50.5 -1.520 High -50.78
2026-05-21 S&P Global Services PMI 47.9 51.7 -3.134 High -48.85
2026-06-17 CPI YoY 2.8 3.0 +1.654 High +48.11
2026-07-21 Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.0 +0.730 High +46.59
2026-07-16 Industrial Production MoM -0.5 -0.1 -1.026 Medium -38.88
2026-06-17 CPI MoM 0.2 0.4 +1.900 Medium +36.85
2026-06-29 Mortgage Approvals 56.21 62.9 -1.281 Medium -32.78
2026-07-16 Goods Trade Balance -18.66 -23.6 +0.726 Medium +27.51
2026-07-16 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -7.14 -9.6 +0.721 Medium +27.34
2026-07-24 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 1.1 -0.4 +1.137 Low +25.91
2026-05-20 CPI YoY 2.8 3.0 +1.654 High +25.19
2026-06-18 Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.0 +0.730 High +21.73
2026-06-01 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM -0.6 -0.1 -1.597 Medium -21.39
2026-06-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.8 -0.638 High -21.33
2026-07-24 Retail Sales YoY 4.2 2.3 +0.445 Medium +20.26
2026-05-14 Construction Orders YoY -11.9 0.5 -4.498 Low -19.88
2026-07-06 S&P Global Construction PMI 38.4 40.0 -0.645 Medium -19.39
2026-07-07 House Price Index YoY 0.6 0.3 +0.628 Medium +19.34
2026-07-22 PPI Core Output MoM 0.5 0.2 -0.881 Low -19.18
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.3 -0.2 +1.398 High +18.53
2026-06-18 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.4 3.2 +1.863 Low +18.49
2026-07-16 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.7 0.5 +0.455 Medium +17.23
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.5 -0.394 Medium -17.17
2026-05-14 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -15.195 -9.0 -1.938 Medium -17.13
2026-07-16 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.7 0.5 +0.442 Medium +16.73
2026-06-12 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -13.05 -9.8 -0.934 Medium -16.13
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.7 +0.246 High +16.09
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 39.7 45.7 -2.116 Medium -15.91
2026-07-22 PPI Output MoM 0.0 0.4 +0.711 Low +15.47
2026-05-14 Manufacturing Production MoM 1.2 -0.2 +1.738 Medium +15.36
2026-05-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 48.5 51.6 -2.951 Low -15.33
2026-07-23 Consumer Confidence -17.0 -21.0 +0.336 Medium +14.95
2026-06-08 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 3.4 0.6 +0.944 Medium +14.87
2026-05-14 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.1 0.8 +1.106 High +14.66
2026-07-16 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.1 -0.2 +0.372 Medium +14.11
2026-06-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.4 50.6 -1.165 Low -12.97
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 3.0 +0.444 High +12.90
2026-06-12 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.4 -0.2 +0.745 Medium +12.87
2026-06-19 Retail Sales MoM 1.2 0.5 +0.411 High +12.52
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.4 +0.616 Medium +11.95
2026-06-04 S&P Global Construction PMI 38.2 40.2 -0.802 Medium -11.51
2026-06-02 Mortgage Approvals 65.94 61.7 +0.828 Medium +11.35
2026-05-19 Unemployment Rate 5.0 4.9 -0.745 High -11.09
2026-05-14 Goods Trade Balance -27.22 -20.0 -1.252 Medium -11.07
2026-07-06 New Car Sales YoY 11.4 2.8 +0.732 Low +11.01
2026-05-20 Retail Price Index YoY 3.0 3.6 +2.096 Low +10.64
2026-07-24 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 5.4 3.2 +0.446 Low +10.17
2026-05-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.0 +0.648 High +10.10
2026-06-12 Goods Trade Balance -26.05 -22.5 -0.547 Medium -9.45
2026-07-21 Employment Change 147.0 85.0 +0.219 Medium +9.33
2026-07-21 HMRC Payrolls Change -4.0 20.0 -0.427 Low -9.08
2026-07-16 Construction Output MoM -0.8 -0.3 -0.467 Low -8.84
2026-07-16 Balance of Trade -1.044 -3.9 +0.465 Low +8.81
2026-05-11 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY -3.4 0.8 -1.062 Medium -8.76
2026-06-03 S&P Global Services PMI 49.3 47.9 +1.246 Low +8.74
2026-06-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.7 2.9 -0.644 Medium -8.62
2026-05-20 CPI MoM 0.7 0.9 +0.845 Medium +8.58
2026-06-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.7 48.5 +1.216 Low +8.53
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.9 1.1 -0.200 High -7.86
2026-07-07 Halifax House Price Index MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.255 Medium +7.85
2026-06-05 Halifax House Price Index MoM -0.1 0.1 -0.510 Medium -7.50
2026-06-19 Retail Sales YoY 3.2 1.9 +0.368 Medium +7.48
2026-07-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.5 53.1 -0.554 Low -7.43
2026-06-17 Retail Price Index YoY 3.1 3.3 +0.762 Low +7.39
2026-05-19 Labour Productivity QoQ 0.9 -0.3 +1.478 Low +7.33
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.7 +0.365 Medium +7.08
2026-06-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.9 1.1 -0.536 Low -7.02
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 3.0 +0.444 High +6.76
2026-07-03 CPI 3.3 3.7 +0.474 Low +6.65
2026-07-22 PPI Core Output YoY 2.6 2.3 -0.302 Low -6.56
2026-07-24 CPI 3.0 3.2 +0.274 Low +6.25
2026-06-19 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 1.2 0.4 +0.606 Low +6.16
2026-06-29 Mortgage Lending 2.89 4.6 -0.234 Medium -5.98
2026-06-17 Retail Price Index MoM 0.2 0.5 +0.614 Low +5.95
2026-06-29 Net Lending to Individuals 4.6 6.0 -0.462 Low -5.91
2026-06-12 Manufacturing Production YoY 1.0 0.4 +0.679 Low +5.87
2026-06-12 Balance of Trade -8.435 -4.1 -0.671 Low -5.80
2026-05-22 Retail Sales YoY 0.0 1.3 -0.538 Medium -5.72
2026-06-17 PPI Core Output MoM 0.8 0.4 -0.588 Low -5.70
2026-07-27 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 0.9 1.1 +0.226 Low +5.53
2026-06-12 Industrial Production YoY -0.2 -0.1 -0.635 Low -5.49
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 0.8 +0.413 High +5.47
2026-05-22 Retail Sales MoM -1.3 -0.6 -0.343 High -5.47
2026-05-14 Balance of Trade -9.658 -3.4 -1.168 Low -5.16
2026-07-08 RICS House Price Balance -33.0 -30.0 -0.164 Medium -5.16
2026-05-13 RICS House Price Balance -34.0 -25.0 -0.589 Medium -5.09
2026-05-19 HMRC Payrolls Change -100.0 -26.0 -1.012 Low -5.02
2026-05-14 Construction Output MoM 1.5 -0.5 +1.120 Low +4.95
2026-05-01 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.4 -0.3 +0.745 Medium +4.88
2026-07-07 House Price Index MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.157 Medium +4.82
2026-05-01 Mortgage Approvals 63.53 60.0 +0.709 Medium +4.64
2026-07-27 CBI Distributive Trades -26.0 -45.0 +0.094 Medium +4.59
2026-06-12 Industrial Production MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.257 Medium -4.43
2026-06-18 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.4 4.0 +0.217 Medium +4.30
2026-07-22 PPI Output YoY 3.5 4.0 +0.192 Low +4.18
2026-07-21 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.3 4.5 -0.096 Medium -4.10
2026-05-20 PPI Core Output MoM 0.7 0.3 -0.783 Low -3.98
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.6 +0.379 Medium +3.85
2026-06-05 CPI 3.7 4.2 +0.522 Low +3.84
2026-05-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 3.0 2.2 +0.566 Medium +3.70
2026-06-18 HMRC Payrolls Change 2.0 -80.0 +0.365 Low +3.62
2026-06-10 RICS House Price Balance -35.0 -31.0 -0.211 Medium -3.48
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 0.7 +0.786 Low +3.47
2026-07-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 2.2 2.4 -0.130 Medium -3.47
2026-06-23 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -45.0 -35.0 -0.154 Medium -3.43
2026-05-20 PPI Output YoY 4.0 2.8 -0.658 Low -3.34
2026-05-21 Consumer Confidence -23.0 -28.0 +0.315 Medium +3.27
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.4 +0.338 Low +3.27
2026-07-21 Claimant Count Change 6.7 29.4 +0.153 Low +3.25
2026-05-20 House Price Index YoY 0.0 -0.1 +0.628 Low +3.19
2026-05-05 New Car Sales YoY 24.0 5.1 +0.883 Low +3.17
2026-05-20 PPI Core Output YoY 2.4 1.9 -0.608 Low -3.09
2026-07-23 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -45.0 -40.0 -0.067 Medium -3.00
2026-07-13 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 1.7 2.9 -0.084 Medium -2.96
2026-06-18 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.4 3.2 +0.296 Low +2.94
2026-06-29 BoE Consumer Credit 1.662 1.8 -0.112 Medium -2.86
2026-07-21 Public Sector Net Borrowing -16.0 -19.8 -0.134 Low -2.85
2026-05-14 Industrial Production YoY 0.0 0.2 -0.635 Low -2.81
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.9 +0.274 Medium +2.78
2026-06-12 Construction Output MoM 0.1 -0.7 +0.320 Low +2.76
2026-05-08 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.7 +0.709 Low +2.73
2026-05-20 Retail Price Index MoM 0.7 1.4 +0.512 Low +2.60
2026-06-19 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 4.6 3.3 +0.256 Low +2.60
2026-05-20 PPI Input MoM 2.4 1.0 -0.508 Low -2.58
2026-06-24 Car Production YoY 3.2 -0.5 +0.220 Low +2.51
2026-05-01 Net Lending to Individuals 8.0 5.9 +0.705 Low +2.31
2026-07-23 CBI Business Optimism Index -36.0 -40.0 +0.049 Medium +2.20
2026-06-17 House Price Index YoY 3.8 2.8 +0.224 Low +2.18
2026-07-22 House Price Index YoY 2.7 3.2 -0.098 Low -2.14
2026-06-02 Mortgage Lending 4.37 5.8 -0.155 Medium -2.13
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 52.7 52.0 +0.574 Low +2.11
2026-06-17 PPI Input MoM 0.2 0.5 +0.218 Low +2.11
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.6 52.0 +0.567 Low +2.08
2026-07-16 Industrial Production YoY 1.0 1.2 -0.106 Low -2.01
2026-06-18 Employment Change 100.0 75.0 +0.100 Medium +1.99
2026-06-29 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.1 0.2 -0.151 Low -1.93
2026-05-01 Mortgage Lending 6.15 4.2 +0.292 Medium +1.91
2026-05-14 Business Investment YoY -1.8 2.8 -0.427 Low -1.89
2026-06-02 BoE Consumer Credit 1.859 1.7 +0.136 Medium +1.87
2026-07-22 PPI Input YoY 7.3 9.0 +0.086 Low +1.87
2026-06-19 Public Sector Net Borrowing -23.3 -18.5 +0.181 Low +1.84
2026-07-16 Manufacturing Production YoY 2.3 1.9 +0.095 Low +1.81
2026-07-16 Construction Output YoY -1.8 -1.1 -0.095 Low -1.80
2026-06-02 Net Lending to Individuals 6.2 7.1 -0.251 Low -1.72
2026-05-19 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.1 3.8 +0.171 Medium +1.70
2026-06-25 CBI Distributive Trades -54.0 -41.0 -0.071 Medium -1.65
2026-06-04 New Car Sales YoY 7.1 3.7 +0.219 Low +1.57
2026-07-16 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.3 1.4 -0.079 Low -1.49
2026-06-18 Consumer Confidence -23.0 -24.0 +0.073 Medium +1.46
2026-05-20 PPI Output MoM 1.4 1.0 -0.284 Low -1.44
2026-07-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 49.3 49.4 -0.099 Low -1.40
2026-06-02 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.2 0.6 -0.201 Low -1.38
2026-07-03 S&P Global Services PMI 48.8 48.7 +0.088 Low +1.23
2026-06-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.7 +0.183 Low +1.22
2026-05-19 Employment Change 148.0 107.0 +0.115 Medium +1.14
2026-06-30 Business Investment YoY -1.3 -1.8 +0.072 Low +0.94
2026-06-17 PPI Core Output YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.096 Low +0.93
2026-05-22 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 1.1 1.5 -0.173 Low -0.92
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.8 +0.169 Low +0.86
2026-06-30 Current Account -22.1 -21.5 -0.032 Medium -0.84
2026-05-14 Industrial Production MoM -0.2 -0.3 +0.086 Medium +0.76
2026-06-12 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.3 -0.085 Low -0.73
2026-05-20 PPI Input YoY 7.7 5.9 -0.139 Low -0.70
2026-05-25 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.2 1.1 -0.113 Low -0.64
2026-05-26 CBI Distributive Trades -46.0 -60.0 +0.052 Medium +0.61
2026-05-22 Public Sector Net Borrowing -24.3 -20.9 +0.114 Low +0.60
2026-05-01 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.8 0.5 +0.181 Low +0.59
2026-05-14 Construction Output YoY -0.3 -2.5 +0.131 Low +0.58
2026-06-30 Business Investment QoQ 0.9 0.7 +0.043 Low +0.56
2026-05-22 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM -0.4 -0.3 -0.101 Low -0.54
2026-06-12 Construction Output YoY -1.0 -1.7 +0.061 Low +0.53
2026-05-01 BoE Consumer Credit 1.895 1.8 +0.077 Medium +0.50
2026-05-14 Business Investment QoQ 0.7 1.1 -0.055 Medium -0.48
2026-06-18 Claimant Count Change 31.2 25.8 -0.041 Low -0.41
2026-05-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.6 +0.092 Low +0.30
2026-05-27 Car Production YoY -0.7 13.5 -0.031 Low -0.19
2026-05-21 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -41.0 -40.0 -0.013 Medium -0.14
2026-04-29 Car Production YoY -0.8 4.4 -0.035 Low -0.11
2026-06-17 PPI Input YoY 8.7 8.8 +0.005 Low +0.05
2026-05-19 Claimant Count Change 26.5 27.3 +0.006 Low +0.03
2026-04-30 BoE MPC Vote Hike 19.0 19.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 BoE MPC Vote Cut 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 89.0 89.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-08 Halifax House Price Index MoM -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-14 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-14 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-14 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-06-05 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-12 Gross Domestic Product MoM -0.1 -0.1 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-12 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-12 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.7 0.7 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-17 PPI Output YoY 4.0 4.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-17 PPI Output MoM 0.5 0.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-18 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE MPC Vote Cut 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 79.0 79.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE MPC Vote Hike 29.0 29.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-29 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-16 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-21 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-21 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-22 Retail Price Index YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-22 Retail Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-22 CPI MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms