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Economic Surprises › United Kingdom

United Kingdom Economic Surprise Index

+3.6 ▼ vs 1w ago (+6.8)
United Kingdom economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+3.6
1 Week Ago
+6.8
Releases (90d)
195
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (195 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-10-23 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM -0.7 -0.1 -1.806 High -123.49
2026-10-15 Manufacturing Production MoM 1.2 -0.1 +3.136 Medium +118.82
2026-10-20 Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.9 +1.491 High +95.14
2026-10-15 Industrial Production MoM 0.8 -0.1 +2.278 Medium +86.34
2026-10-20 Employment Change 102.0 20.0 +1.244 High +79.39
2026-10-23 S&P Global Services PMI 53.1 51.8 +1.118 High +76.48
2026-10-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.8 51.7 +1.051 High +71.88
2026-10-15 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 -0.1 +1.117 High +63.50
2026-10-23 Retail Sales MoM -0.4 -0.1 -0.884 High -60.48
2026-09-07 House Price Index YoY -0.4 0.1 -3.092 Medium -48.69
2026-10-22 Consumer Confidence -24.0 -15.0 -1.062 Medium -47.33
2026-09-18 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 0.6 -0.2 +1.204 High +36.67
2026-10-15 Goods Trade Balance -18.01 -21.8 +0.611 High +34.75
2026-09-18 Retail Sales MoM 0.5 -0.2 +1.032 High +31.43
2026-10-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.1 51.8 +1.292 Low +29.45
2026-10-23 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 0.8 1.5 -0.306 High -20.90
2026-09-15 Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.0 +0.731 High +20.77
2026-10-07 House Price Index YoY 0.0 -0.2 +0.618 Medium +19.48
2026-09-30 Business Investment YoY 5.2 0.8 +1.431 Low +19.17
2026-09-15 HMRC Payrolls Change -26.0 -4.0 -1.912 Low -18.12
2026-10-21 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.3 -0.415 Medium -18.07
2026-10-15 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.7 0.5 +0.462 Medium +17.52
2026-07-30 BoE MPC Vote Hike 3.0 2.0 +2.692 Medium +17.22
2026-10-15 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.7 0.5 +0.454 Medium +17.20
2026-10-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 0.8 1.3 -0.603 Medium -16.52
2026-10-15 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.7 0.4 +0.851 Low +16.12
2026-10-21 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 2.7 -0.369 Medium -16.05
2026-10-15 Industrial Production YoY 1.6 0.7 +0.814 Low +15.42
2026-09-11 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.9 0.2 +0.844 Medium +14.58
2026-10-22 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -32.0 -20.0 -0.326 Medium -14.52
2026-10-20 HMRC Payrolls Change 13.0 -15.0 +0.649 Low +13.80
2026-10-21 PPI Core Output MoM 0.2 0.1 -0.598 Low -13.02
2026-10-21 Inflation Rate YoY 3.5 3.4 -0.198 High -12.90
2026-08-07 Halifax House Price Index YoY 0.1 0.4 -1.653 Medium -12.72
2026-09-29 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.4 0.1 +0.921 Low +12.05
2026-09-29 BoE Consumer Credit 2.464 1.9 +0.436 Medium +11.42
2026-08-18 Unemployment Rate 4.9 4.8 -0.761 High -11.33
2026-09-11 Industrial Production YoY 0.6 0.2 +1.266 Low +10.94
2026-10-27 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 2.1 1.6 -0.402 Low -10.06
2026-10-06 S&P Global Construction PMI 46.1 45.2 +0.325 Medium +10.02
2026-09-01 Mortgage Approvals 56.05 59.4 -0.684 Medium -9.38
2026-09-16 PPI Output MoM 0.7 0.3 -0.955 Low -9.26
2026-10-15 Balance of Trade -0.92 -3.6 +0.478 Low +9.05
2026-09-22 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -9.0 -34.0 +0.400 Medium +8.90
2026-09-11 Industrial Production MoM 0.2 -0.2 +0.506 Medium +8.75
2026-10-26 CBI Distributive Trades -10.0 -47.0 +0.177 Medium +8.65
2026-09-18 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 2.7 1.9 +0.276 High +8.40
2026-09-04 S&P Global Construction PMI 44.3 45.8 -0.535 Medium -7.86
2026-09-24 Consumer Confidence -13.0 -16.0 +0.332 Medium +7.74
2026-10-23 Retail Sales YoY 0.8 1.0 -0.109 High -7.43
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.1 -1.364 Low -6.92
2026-08-13 Industrial Production MoM -0.2 0.1 -0.759 Medium -6.71
2026-09-29 Mortgage Approvals 54.92 56.1 -0.255 Medium -6.68
2026-09-11 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.4 0.3 +0.385 Medium +6.66
2026-09-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.4 1.2 +0.495 Low +6.63
2026-09-11 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.4 0.3 +0.378 Medium +6.53
2026-10-22 CBI Business Optimism Index -27.0 -38.0 +0.146 Medium +6.48
2026-08-18 HMRC Payrolls Change -13.0 5.0 -1.252 Low -6.21
2026-09-30 Current Account -19.9 -24.7 +0.224 Medium +6.01
2026-08-13 Business Investment QoQ 1.7 -0.5 +0.667 Medium +5.90
2026-08-31 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.5 0.9 -0.859 Low -5.75
2026-09-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.5 0.4 +0.428 Low +5.73
2026-08-13 Industrial Production YoY -0.2 0.2 -1.266 Low -5.60
2026-09-11 Goods Trade Balance -20.97 -22.3 +0.210 High +5.43
2026-10-05 S&P Global Services PMI 52.1 51.7 +0.345 Low +5.18
2026-09-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.6 2.1 -0.373 Medium -5.11
2026-10-15 Gross Domestic Product YoY 2.1 1.7 +0.264 Low +4.99
2026-09-07 House Price Index MoM -0.2 0.2 -0.316 Medium -4.98
2026-10-07 House Price Index MoM 0.0 0.2 -0.158 Medium -4.98
2026-10-12 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 1.0 0.7 +0.089 High +4.70
2026-08-13 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -10.45 -9.3 -0.351 High -4.66
2026-07-29 Net Lending to Individuals 9.5 5.5 +1.461 Low +4.57
2026-10-05 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0 51.7 +0.299 Low +4.49
2026-09-15 Claimant Count Change 27.8 8.3 -0.469 Low -4.45
2026-09-01 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.322 Medium +4.41
2026-09-18 Retail Sales YoY 2.4 1.9 +0.143 High +4.35
2026-09-01 Net Lending to Individuals 6.3 9.2 -0.633 Low -4.34
2026-08-20 Consumer Confidence -14.0 -18.0 +0.394 Medium +4.09
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.5 -0.398 Medium -4.04
2026-08-13 Goods Trade Balance -23.01 -20.5 -0.431 Medium -3.81
2026-07-29 Mortgage Lending 7.73 3.95 +0.608 Medium +3.80
2026-09-03 S&P Global Services PMI 52.5 52.8 -0.253 Medium -3.64
2026-08-13 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2 1.1 +0.270 High +3.58
2026-08-07 House Price Index YoY 0.1 0.4 -0.464 Medium -3.57
2026-10-07 RICS House Price Balance -32.0 -30.0 -0.112 Medium -3.53
2026-09-16 Retail Price Index YoY 3.4 3.5 +0.362 Low +3.51
2026-10-21 House Price Index YoY 0.9 1.2 -0.155 Low -3.36
2026-09-11 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.6 1.2 +0.373 Low +3.23
2026-08-13 Manufacturing Production MoM -0.5 -0.2 -0.362 Medium -3.20
2026-07-29 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.8 0.2 +0.921 Low +2.88
2026-09-29 Net Lending to Individuals 6.874 6.2 +0.218 Low +2.86
2026-10-20 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.7 3.6 +0.133 Low +2.83
2026-09-01 M4 Money Supply MoM -0.3 0.9 -0.409 Low -2.81
2026-08-26 CBI Distributive Trades -48.0 -24.0 -0.225 Medium -2.68
2026-09-09 RICS House Price Balance -28.0 -31.0 +0.162 Medium +2.68
2026-10-15 Manufacturing Production YoY 3.0 2.3 +0.139 Low +2.64
2026-09-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.7 51.5 +0.192 Medium +2.63
2026-08-13 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.2 0.4 -0.567 Low -2.51
2026-10-20 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 3.7 3.8 -0.058 Medium -2.45
2026-10-20 Claimant Count Change 30.3 19.4 -0.112 Low -2.39
2026-10-21 PPI Output YoY 4.6 4.3 -0.108 Low -2.35
2026-09-01 BoE Consumer Credit 2.006 1.8 +0.168 Medium +2.31
2026-10-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.58 6.6 +0.147 Low +2.31
2026-10-21 PPI Output MoM 0.8 0.7 -0.102 Low -2.23
2026-08-07 Halifax House Price Index MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.278 Medium -2.14
2026-08-20 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -25.0 -40.0 +0.204 Medium +2.12
2026-08-26 Car Production YoY -10.6 1.0 -0.350 Low -2.09
2026-08-13 Business Investment YoY 0.8 -1.0 +0.468 Low +2.07
2026-08-13 Construction Orders YoY -18.1 11.8 -0.468 Low -2.07
2026-09-16 House Price Index YoY 1.4 2.1 -0.206 Low -2.00
2026-08-18 Claimant Count Change -11.0 11.2 +0.396 Low +1.96
2026-08-19 Retail Price Index YoY 3.2 3.3 +0.384 Low +1.95
2026-09-07 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 0.5 1.2 -0.121 Medium -1.90
2026-08-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 0.8 +0.420 Low +1.86
2026-10-21 PPI Core Output YoY 2.9 2.8 -0.084 Low -1.83
2026-09-16 PPI Output YoY 3.7 3.3 -0.188 Low -1.82
2026-07-30 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 6.0 7.0 -0.278 Medium -1.78
2026-08-18 Employment Change 83.0 200.0 -0.178 Medium -1.76
2026-08-21 Retail Sales YoY 1.6 2.2 -0.148 Medium -1.57
2026-09-16 PPI Core Output YoY 2.7 2.9 +0.162 Low +1.57
2026-08-13 Balance of Trade -5.537 -3.6 -0.345 Low -1.53
2026-10-21 PPI Input YoY 8.3 7.2 -0.070 Low -1.53
2026-07-29 Mortgage Approvals 58.2 57.1 +0.234 Medium +1.46
2026-09-16 PPI Core Output MoM 0.3 0.4 +0.150 Low +1.45
2026-09-16 Retail Price Index MoM 0.6 0.7 +0.148 Low +1.43
2026-08-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.1 +0.102 High +1.35
2026-08-19 Retail Price Index MoM 0.6 0.8 +0.258 Low +1.31
2026-09-22 Public Sector Net Borrowing -18.3 -15.7 +0.116 Low +1.30
2026-10-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.9 52.0 -0.095 Low -1.30
2026-08-21 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM -0.9 -0.5 -0.241 Low -1.28
2026-08-07 House Price Index MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.158 Medium -1.22
2026-08-13 Manufacturing Production YoY 0.5 1.2 -0.267 Low -1.18
2026-09-11 Manufacturing Production YoY 2.6 2.0 +0.137 Low +1.18
2026-09-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.58 6.6 +0.147 Low +1.16
2026-08-18 Labour Productivity QoQ -0.8 -0.5 -0.224 Low -1.11
2026-09-28 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.4 1.5 +0.086 Low +1.10
2026-08-21 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 2.3 3.3 -0.198 Low -1.06
2026-09-16 PPI Input MoM 0.3 0.4 +0.091 Low +0.89
2026-08-13 Construction Output MoM -0.1 -0.3 +0.192 Low +0.85
2026-09-11 Balance of Trade -3.45 -4.0 +0.088 Low +0.76
2026-08-18 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.5 3.4 +0.141 Low +0.70
2026-08-19 PPI Core Output MoM 0.6 0.5 -0.120 Low -0.61
2026-08-19 PPI Input YoY 4.9 6.6 +0.118 Low +0.60
2026-09-01 Mortgage Lending 4.29 4.6 -0.043 Medium -0.59
2026-07-29 BoE Consumer Credit 1.807 1.7 +0.093 Medium +0.58
2026-09-16 PPI Input YoY 6.1 5.4 -0.059 Low -0.58
2026-08-10 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 1.0 1.5 -0.069 Medium -0.57
2026-07-31 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.8 1.9 -0.082 Medium -0.54
2026-09-24 CBI Distributive Trades -55.0 -50.0 -0.022 Medium -0.52
2026-10-21 PPI Input MoM 1.5 1.6 +0.023 Low +0.50
2026-08-12 RICS House Price Balance -30.0 -31.0 +0.054 Medium +0.47
2026-08-19 PPI Core Output YoY 2.8 2.7 -0.087 Low -0.44
2026-10-21 Public Sector Net Borrowing -24.5 -23.9 +0.018 Low +0.38
2026-09-15 Employment Change 67.0 70.0 -0.013 High -0.37
2026-10-15 Construction Output YoY -1.8 -1.6 -0.019 Low -0.36
2026-08-19 PPI Output YoY 3.1 3.2 +0.048 Low +0.25
2026-08-19 House Price Index YoY 2.0 1.9 +0.033 Low +0.17
2026-08-05 New Car Sales YoY 11.7 10.0 +0.041 Low +0.15
2026-07-29 Car Production YoY -1.2 -0.5 -0.042 Low -0.13
2026-09-30 Business Investment QoQ 1.8 1.7 +0.009 Low +0.12
2026-09-11 Construction Output YoY -2.5 -2.3 -0.013 Low -0.11
2026-09-29 Mortgage Lending 4.41 4.4 +0.001 Medium +0.04
2026-08-13 Construction Output YoY -2.3 -2.4 +0.006 Low +0.03
2026-10-02 New Car Sales YoY 12.1 12.0 +0.002 Low +0.03
2026-07-30 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-30 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-31 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-13 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.4 0.4 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-08-13 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-13 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.4 0.4 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-08-13 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-18 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.1 4.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-08-19 CPI MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-08-19 PPI Output MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-19 CPI YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-08-21 Retail Sales MoM -0.5 -0.5 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.5 52.5 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-09-11 Construction Output MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-09-15 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.5 3.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-09-15 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 3.9 3.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-09-16 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-09-16 Inflation Rate MoM 0.5 0.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-09-16 Inflation Rate YoY 3.1 3.1 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-09-16 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.6 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-09-17 BoE MPC Vote Hike 39.0 39.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-09-17 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-17 BoE MPC Vote Cut 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-09-17 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-17 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 69.0 69.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-10-21 Retail Price Index MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-10-21 Retail Price Index YoY 3.9 3.9 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-10-21 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms