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Economic Surprises › United Kingdom
United Kingdom +5.0 ▬ vs 1w ago (+5.5)
United Kingdom economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+5.0
1 Week Ago
+5.5
Releases (90d)
235
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (235 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-04-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.6 49.9 +3.530 High +138.65
2026-05-14 Construction Orders YoY -11.9 0.5 -4.498 Low -95.67
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.3 -0.2 +1.381 High +88.11
2026-05-14 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -15.195 -9.0 -1.926 Medium -81.94
2026-04-21 Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.2 +2.096 High +78.61
2026-03-19 Employment Change 84.0 -4.0 +6.555 Medium +76.45
2026-04-23 S&P Global Services PMI 52.0 50.0 +1.938 High +76.10
2026-05-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 39.7 45.7 -2.066 Medium -74.74
2026-04-16 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.5 0.1 +2.210 High +73.82
2026-05-14 Manufacturing Production MoM 1.2 -0.2 +1.731 Medium +73.63
2026-05-14 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.1 0.8 +1.103 High +70.36
2026-05-19 Unemployment Rate 5.0 4.9 -0.742 High -53.10
2026-05-14 Goods Trade Balance -27.22 -20.0 -1.244 Medium -52.89
2026-05-20 Retail Price Index YoY 3.0 3.6 +2.086 Low +50.96
2026-05-11 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY -3.4 0.8 -1.050 Medium -41.65
2026-04-22 PPI Input YoY 5.4 0.7 -3.032 Low -38.79
2026-04-16 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.5 0.2 +1.686 Medium +37.56
2026-04-16 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.5 0.2 +1.632 Medium +36.36
2026-05-19 Labour Productivity QoQ 0.9 -0.3 +1.478 Low +35.28
2026-03-25 PPI Core Output MoM -0.8 0.1 +5.251 Low +35.17
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 3.0 +0.441 High +32.33
2026-03-24 S&P Global Services PMI 51.2 53.0 -1.645 High -32.30
2026-04-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0 49.8 +2.457 Low +32.16
2026-04-24 Retail Sales MoM 0.7 0.2 +0.731 High +29.40
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 0.8 +0.407 High +25.98
2026-05-14 Balance of Trade -9.658 -3.4 -1.161 Low -24.69
2026-03-24 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.4 50.1 +1.235 High +24.26
2026-05-13 RICS House Price Balance -34.0 -25.0 -0.578 Medium -24.03
2026-05-01 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.4 -0.3 +0.752 Medium +23.68
2026-05-19 HMRC Payrolls Change -100.0 -26.0 -0.992 Low -23.68
2026-04-23 CBI Business Optimism Index -65.0 -23.0 -0.889 Medium -23.27
2026-05-14 Construction Output MoM 1.5 -0.5 +1.085 Low +23.08
2026-05-01 Mortgage Approvals 63.53 60.0 +0.710 Medium +22.35
2026-02-20 Retail Sales MoM 1.8 0.2 +2.341 High +21.94
2026-03-13 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -3.46 -11.4 +1.949 Medium +19.79
2026-05-20 PPI Core Output MoM 0.7 0.3 -0.778 Low -19.00
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.5 2.6 +0.377 Medium +18.42
2026-03-19 BoE MPC Vote Cut 9.0 29.0 -1.571 Medium -18.32
2026-05-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 3.0 2.2 +0.563 Medium +17.74
2026-03-25 PPI Output MoM -0.5 0.2 +2.472 Low +16.56
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 0.7 +0.776 Low +16.50
2026-05-20 PPI Output YoY 4.0 2.8 -0.654 Low -15.98
2026-05-20 House Price Index YoY 0.0 -0.1 +0.623 Low +15.23
2026-05-05 New Car Sales YoY 24.0 5.1 +0.872 Low +15.07
2026-05-20 PPI Core Output YoY 2.4 1.9 -0.602 Low -14.70
2026-04-16 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -7.1 -9.2 +0.639 Medium +14.23
2026-05-14 Industrial Production YoY 0.0 0.2 -0.632 Low -13.43
2026-04-08 House Price Index YoY -0.2 1.3 -0.719 Medium -13.31
2026-04-08 House Price Index YoY -0.2 1.3 -0.719 Medium -13.31
2026-05-20 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.9 +0.272 Medium +13.31
2026-03-24 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.0 52.9 -1.997 Low -13.07
2026-05-20 PPI Input MoM 2.4 1.0 -0.531 Low -12.98
2026-05-08 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.7 +0.698 Low +12.92
2026-04-21 Employment Change 25.0 -35.0 +0.511 Medium +12.77
2026-05-20 Retail Price Index MoM 0.7 1.4 +0.509 Low +12.43
2026-03-13 Goods Trade Balance -14.45 -22.2 +1.203 Medium +12.21
2026-04-16 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.6 0.3 +1.088 Low +12.12
2026-04-16 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.6 0.3 +1.088 Low +12.12
2026-03-19 Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.3 +0.686 High +11.99
2026-05-06 S&P Global Services PMI 52.7 52.0 +0.652 Low +11.53
2026-05-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.6 52.0 +0.642 Low +11.34
2026-04-08 S&P Global Construction PMI 45.6 43.9 +0.609 Medium +11.28
2026-03-31 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 2.2 1.5 +0.723 Medium +11.12
2026-03-30 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.6 0.1 +1.466 Low +11.02
2026-05-01 Net Lending to Individuals 8.0 5.9 +0.686 Low +10.80
2026-04-21 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.6 3.5 +0.855 Low +10.69
2026-04-16 Construction Output MoM 1.0 -0.4 +0.950 Low +10.58
2026-04-22 PPI Core Output YoY 2.0 3.1 +0.811 Low +10.38
2026-04-13 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 3.1 0.9 +0.489 Medium +10.16
2026-05-01 Mortgage Lending 6.15 4.2 +0.290 Medium +9.15
2026-05-14 Business Investment YoY -1.8 2.8 -0.424 Low -9.01
2026-03-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.8 4.0 -1.496 Low -8.72
2026-03-20 Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks -14.3 -8.5 +1.435 Low +8.56
2026-04-16 Industrial Production MoM 0.5 0.2 +0.383 Medium +8.53
2026-02-20 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 2.0 0.2 +2.712 Low +8.47
2026-03-13 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.0 0.2 -0.552 High -8.41
2026-04-08 RICS House Price Balance -23.0 -18.0 -0.446 Medium -8.26
2026-04-22 Retail Price Index YoY 4.1 3.9 -0.642 Low -8.21
2026-05-19 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.1 3.8 +0.170 Medium +8.12
2026-04-16 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.0 0.6 +0.724 Low +8.06
2026-04-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.1 3.2 +0.306 Medium +7.84
2026-04-21 HMRC Payrolls Change -11.0 15.0 -0.604 Low -7.55
2026-04-22 PPI Core Output MoM 0.2 0.1 -0.583 Low -7.46
2026-04-16 Manufacturing Production MoM -0.1 0.3 -0.330 Medium -7.34
2026-04-07 New Car Sales YoY 6.6 1.5 +0.800 Low +7.24
2026-03-05 S&P Global Construction PMI 44.5 47.0 -0.837 Medium -7.06
2026-04-07 S&P Global Composite PMI 50.3 51.0 -0.763 Low -6.90
2026-05-20 PPI Output MoM 1.4 1.0 -0.282 Low -6.90
2026-03-25 PPI Core Output YoY 1.9 3.2 +0.929 Low +6.22
2026-03-05 New Car Sales YoY 7.2 1.0 +1.459 Low +6.16
2026-03-19 HMRC Payrolls Change 20.0 5.0 +1.046 Low +6.10
2026-04-07 S&P Global Services PMI 50.5 51.2 -0.662 Low -5.99
2026-04-16 Balance of Trade -0.72 -3.6 +0.505 Low +5.62
2026-05-19 Employment Change 148.0 107.0 +0.114 Medium +5.45
2026-03-19 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 99.0 79.0 +0.462 Medium +5.38
2026-04-16 Goods Trade Balance -18.79 -20.2 +0.240 Medium +5.36
2026-03-12 RICS House Price Balance -12.0 -9.0 -0.535 Medium -5.31
2026-03-02 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.0 0.7 +0.664 Medium +5.23
2026-03-13 Balance of Trade 3.922 -6.2 +1.030 Low +5.23
2026-04-22 Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.6 -0.204 Medium -5.23
2026-04-27 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.0 1.4 +0.327 Low +4.70
2026-03-30 BoE Consumer Credit 1.935 1.6 +0.303 Medium +4.56
2026-04-24 Retail Sales YoY 1.7 1.3 +0.164 Medium +4.40
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 +0.462 High +4.33
2026-03-25 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.2 3.1 -0.316 Medium -4.24
2026-05-20 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.7 0.8 +0.167 Low +4.08
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.3 +0.626 Medium +3.91
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.3 +0.626 Medium +3.91
2026-04-16 Industrial Production YoY -0.4 -0.9 +0.351 Low +3.91
2026-03-13 Industrial Production MoM -0.1 0.2 -0.383 Medium -3.89
2026-03-13 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.2 0.3 -0.375 Medium -3.81
2026-03-30 Mortgage Approvals 62.58 61.3 +0.252 Medium +3.79
2026-03-31 Current Account -18.4 -23.4 +0.242 Medium +3.73
2026-04-23 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -38.0 -30.0 -0.142 Medium -3.72
2026-05-14 Industrial Production MoM -0.2 -0.3 +0.085 Medium +3.62
2026-03-25 PPI Output YoY 1.7 2.6 +0.528 Low +3.54
2026-04-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.267 Low +3.42
2026-02-27 Consumer Confidence -19.0 -15.0 -0.464 Medium -3.41
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.5 +0.362 High +3.40
2026-05-20 PPI Input YoY 7.7 5.9 -0.138 Low -3.37
2026-04-16 Manufacturing Production YoY -0.5 -0.3 -0.301 Low -3.35
2026-03-30 Net Lending to Individuals 6.8 5.6 +0.413 Low +3.10
2026-03-02 Mortgage Approvals 60.0 62.0 -0.389 Medium -3.06
2026-03-27 Consumer Confidence -21.0 -24.0 +0.218 Medium +3.05
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 52.0 51.5 +0.320 High +3.00
2026-04-21 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 3.8 3.6 +0.120 Medium +2.99
2026-04-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.0 51.4 -0.371 Low -2.92
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 +0.462 Medium +2.89
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 +0.462 Medium +2.89
2026-03-20 Public Sector Net Borrowing -14.3 -8.5 +0.471 Low +2.81
2026-04-22 PPI Input MoM 4.4 2.8 -0.217 Low -2.77
2026-05-01 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.8 0.5 +0.176 Low +2.77
2026-05-14 Construction Output YoY -0.3 -2.5 +0.130 Low +2.77
2026-04-22 House Price Index YoY 1.2 0.9 +0.208 Low +2.66
2026-03-27 Retail Sales MoM -0.4 -0.7 +0.125 High +2.64
2026-04-27 CBI Distributive Trades -68.0 -48.0 -0.092 Medium -2.63
2026-03-30 Net Lending to Individuals MoM 6.8 5.6 +0.340 Low +2.56
2026-02-24 CBI Distributive Trades -43.0 -16.0 -0.371 Medium -2.54
2026-03-31 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.9 0.6 +0.161 Medium +2.48
2026-05-01 BoE Consumer Credit 1.895 1.8 +0.076 Medium +2.41
2026-03-06 House Price Index YoY 1.3 0.9 +0.277 Medium +2.39
2026-03-06 House Price Index YoY 1.3 0.9 +0.277 Medium +2.39
2026-03-06 House Price Index YoY 1.3 0.9 +0.277 Medium +2.39
2026-05-14 Business Investment QoQ 0.7 1.1 -0.054 Medium -2.31
2026-03-25 Retail Price Index YoY 3.6 3.7 +0.338 Low +2.27
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.5 +0.362 Medium +2.26
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.5 +0.362 Medium +2.26
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI Flash 53.9 53.5 +0.232 High +2.17
2026-02-20 Retail Sales YoY 4.5 2.8 +0.324 Medium +2.03
2026-04-22 PPI Output YoY 2.6 2.9 +0.158 Low +2.02
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.3 +0.626 Low +1.96
2026-04-23 Public Sector Net Borrowing -12.6 -10.4 +0.146 Low +1.91
2026-04-23 Consumer Confidence -25.0 -24.0 -0.073 Medium -1.90
2026-04-22 Retail Price Index MoM 0.8 0.7 -0.145 Low -1.86
2026-02-20 Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks 30.4 23.8 -0.583 Low -1.82
2026-03-25 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.6 0.5 -0.267 Low -1.79
2026-03-02 M4 Money Supply MoM -0.1 0.2 -0.440 Low -1.73
2026-03-02 M4 Money Supply MoM -0.1 0.2 -0.440 Low -1.73
2026-03-30 Mortgage Lending 4.84 4.1 +0.113 Medium +1.70
2026-04-21 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.6 3.5 +0.134 Low +1.68
2026-04-16 Construction Output YoY -1.0 -0.5 -0.148 Low -1.65
2026-03-02 Mortgage Approvals 60.0 62.0 -0.389 Low -1.53
2026-03-25 PPI Input MoM 0.8 0.5 -0.228 Low -1.53
2026-03-27 Retail Sales YoY 2.5 2.1 +0.102 Medium +1.43
2026-05-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.6 +0.089 Low +1.40
2026-03-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.8 4.0 -0.235 Low -1.37
2026-03-25 Retail Price Index MoM 0.4 0.5 +0.204 Low +1.36
2026-03-10 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 0.7 2.4 -0.142 Medium -1.34
2026-04-24 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 1.7 2.0 -0.097 Low -1.29
2026-03-13 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.1 0.2 -0.124 Medium -1.26
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 53.9 53.3 +0.373 Low +1.16
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.7 52.0 -0.275 Low -1.08
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY 0.4 0.6 -0.211 Low -1.07
2026-02-20 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 5.5 3.6 +0.340 Low +1.06
2026-03-27 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM -0.4 -0.8 +0.151 Low +1.06
2026-03-03 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.1 1.4 +0.245 Low +0.99
2026-03-03 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.1 1.4 +0.245 Low +0.99
2026-03-25 House Price Index YoY 1.3 1.7 -0.147 Low -0.98
2026-03-02 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.1 1.4 +0.245 Low +0.97
2026-04-22 PPI Output MoM 0.9 1.0 +0.071 Low +0.90
2026-03-24 CBI Distributive Trades -52.0 -40.0 -0.066 Medium -0.86
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.7 53.9 -0.206 Low -0.85
2026-03-27 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 3.4 2.9 +0.111 Low +0.78
2026-03-25 PPI Input YoY 0.5 0.4 -0.113 Low -0.76
2026-03-02 BoE Consumer Credit 1.812 1.7 +0.095 Medium +0.75
2026-03-13 Construction Output YoY -0.2 -0.1 -0.148 Low -0.75
2026-04-21 Claimant Count Change 26.8 21.4 -0.050 Low -0.62
2026-03-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.9 -0.121 Low -0.61
2026-04-29 Car Production YoY -0.8 4.4 -0.035 Low -0.52
2026-03-27 Car Production YoY -10.7 8.0 -0.069 Low -0.48
2026-03-20 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -27.0 -29.0 +0.037 Medium +0.44
2026-03-02 BoE Consumer Credit 1.812 1.7 +0.095 Low +0.38
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals 5.9 6.2 -0.093 Low -0.37
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals 5.9 6.2 -0.093 Low -0.37
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals 5.9 6.2 -0.093 Low -0.37
2026-03-06 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.59 6.6 +0.071 Low +0.31
2026-03-13 Manufacturing Production YoY 1.3 1.5 -0.060 Low -0.31
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals MoM 5.9 6.2 -0.077 Low -0.30
2026-02-27 Car Production YoY -8.2 5.3 -0.075 Low -0.27
2026-03-02 Mortgage Lending 4.08 4.2 -0.018 Medium -0.14
2026-05-19 Claimant Count Change 26.5 27.3 +0.006 Low +0.14
2026-03-31 Business Investment QoQ -2.5 -2.7 +0.011 Low +0.09
2026-03-19 Claimant Count Change 24.7 25.8 +0.008 Low +0.05
2026-03-02 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-06 House Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-06 House Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-06 House Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-13 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-19 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 3.9 3.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-19 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 BoE MPC Vote Hike 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-19 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-25 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-03-25 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-03-30 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-03-31 Business Investment YoY 2.0 2.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-31 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.0 1.0 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-31 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-31 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-31 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.0 1.0 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-09 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-04-22 Inflation Rate YoY 3.3 3.3 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-04-24 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-04-30 BoE MPC Vote Cut 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 89.0 89.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-04-30 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-04-30 BoE MPC Vote Hike 19.0 19.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-14 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-14 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-14 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-05-14 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-05-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-05-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms