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Economic Surprises › United Kingdom
United Kingdom +0.8 ▬ vs 1w ago (+0.7)
United Kingdom economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+0.8
1 Week Ago
+0.7
Releases (90d)
206
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (206 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-09-07 House Price Index YoY -0.4 0.1 -3.068 Medium -139.86
2026-07-30 BoE MPC Vote Hike 3.0 2.0 +2.633 Medium +48.75
2026-09-11 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.9 0.2 +0.872 Medium +43.61
2026-08-21 S&P Global Services PMI 52.8 51.8 +0.858 High +39.59
2026-08-07 Halifax House Price Index YoY 0.1 0.4 -1.653 Medium -36.82
2026-08-18 Unemployment Rate 4.9 4.8 -0.761 High -32.76
2026-09-11 Industrial Production YoY 0.6 0.2 +1.265 Low +31.63
2026-07-24 Retail Sales MoM 1.0 -0.3 +1.277 High +30.87
2026-07-22 PPI Input MoM -2.0 0.2 +3.991 Low +30.71
2026-09-01 Mortgage Approvals 56.05 59.4 -0.682 Medium -27.08
2026-09-11 Industrial Production MoM 0.2 -0.2 +0.515 Medium +25.75
2026-07-22 CPI YoY 2.6 2.7 +0.980 High +22.61
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.1 -1.348 Low -19.81
2026-08-13 Industrial Production MoM -0.2 0.1 -0.773 Medium -19.77
2026-09-11 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.4 0.3 +0.383 Medium +19.16
2026-09-11 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.4 0.3 +0.374 Medium +18.72
2026-08-18 HMRC Payrolls Change -13.0 5.0 -1.277 Low -18.33
2026-06-17 CPI YoY 2.8 3.0 +1.763 High +18.13
2026-09-04 S&P Global Construction PMI 44.3 45.5 -0.426 Medium -18.13
2026-08-13 Business Investment QoQ 1.7 -0.5 +0.665 Medium +17.02
2026-07-21 Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.0 +0.730 High +16.47
2026-08-31 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.5 0.9 -0.839 Low -16.26
2026-08-13 Industrial Production YoY -0.2 0.2 -1.265 Low -16.19
2026-09-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.6 2.1 -0.373 Medium -14.78
2026-09-07 House Price Index MoM -0.2 0.2 -0.315 Medium -14.37
2026-06-17 CPI MoM 0.2 0.4 +2.073 Medium +14.21
2026-07-16 Industrial Production MoM -0.5 -0.1 -1.030 Medium -13.80
2026-08-21 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.5 51.6 +0.897 Low +13.80
2026-08-13 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -10.45 -9.3 -0.351 High -13.48
2026-07-29 Net Lending to Individuals 9.5 5.5 +1.435 Low +12.98
2026-09-01 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.322 Medium +12.77
2026-09-01 Net Lending to Individuals 6.3 9.2 -0.622 Low -12.34
2026-08-20 Consumer Confidence -14.0 -18.0 +0.393 Medium +11.81
2026-06-29 Mortgage Approvals 56.21 62.9 -1.287 Medium -11.64
2026-08-19 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.5 -0.396 Medium -11.63
2026-08-13 Goods Trade Balance -23.01 -20.5 -0.429 Medium -10.98
2026-07-29 Mortgage Lending 7.73 3.95 +0.606 Medium +10.96
2026-09-11 Goods Trade Balance -20.97 -22.3 +0.209 Medium +10.45
2026-08-13 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.2 1.1 +0.269 High +10.34
2026-08-07 House Price Index YoY 0.1 0.4 -0.460 Medium -10.25
2026-07-16 Goods Trade Balance -18.66 -23.6 +0.734 Medium +9.83
2026-07-16 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -7.14 -9.6 +0.728 Medium +9.75
2026-08-13 Manufacturing Production MoM -0.5 -0.2 -0.374 Medium -9.56
2026-09-11 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.6 1.2 +0.372 Low +9.29
2026-07-24 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 1.1 -0.4 +1.140 Low +9.19
2026-07-29 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.8 0.2 +0.918 Low +8.30
2026-09-01 M4 Money Supply MoM -0.3 0.9 -0.408 Low -8.09
2026-08-26 CBI Distributive Trades -48.0 -24.0 -0.223 Medium -7.71
2026-09-09 RICS House Price Balance -28.0 -31.0 +0.161 Medium +7.69
2026-06-18 Unemployment Rate 4.9 5.0 +0.730 High +7.68
2026-07-24 Retail Sales YoY 4.2 2.3 +0.446 Medium +7.19
2026-08-13 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.2 0.4 -0.562 Low -7.18
2026-07-22 PPI Core Output MoM 0.5 0.2 -0.888 Low -6.83
2026-07-07 House Price Index YoY 0.6 0.3 +0.614 Medium +6.68
2026-09-01 BoE Consumer Credit 2.006 1.8 +0.168 Medium +6.66
2026-06-18 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.4 3.2 +1.863 Low +6.54
2026-08-07 Halifax House Price Index MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.278 Medium -6.20
2026-07-16 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.7 0.5 +0.460 Medium +6.16
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.5 -0.396 Medium -6.09
2026-08-20 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -25.0 -40.0 +0.203 Medium +6.09
2026-08-13 Business Investment YoY 0.8 -1.0 +0.473 Low +6.05
2026-08-26 Car Production YoY -10.6 1.0 -0.350 Low -6.05
2026-07-16 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.7 0.5 +0.449 Medium +6.02
2026-08-13 Construction Orders YoY -18.1 11.8 -0.468 Low -5.98
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.7 +0.247 High +5.71
2026-08-18 Claimant Count Change -11.0 11.2 +0.394 Low +5.65
2026-08-19 Retail Price Index YoY 3.2 3.3 +0.382 Low +5.61
2026-07-22 PPI Output MoM 0.0 0.4 +0.714 Low +5.49
2026-09-07 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 0.5 1.2 -0.120 Medium -5.46
2026-08-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.1 0.8 +0.418 Low +5.35
2026-07-23 Consumer Confidence -17.0 -21.0 +0.337 Medium +5.30
2026-09-03 S&P Global Services PMI 52.5 52.8 -0.252 Low -5.25
2026-08-18 Employment Change 83.0 200.0 -0.177 Medium -5.07
2026-07-30 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 6.0 7.0 -0.272 Medium -5.04
2026-07-16 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.1 -0.2 +0.374 Medium +5.01
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate YoY 2.8 3.0 +0.445 High +4.58
2026-08-21 Retail Sales YoY 1.6 2.2 -0.147 Medium -4.53
2026-06-19 Retail Sales MoM 1.2 0.5 +0.413 High +4.44
2026-08-13 Balance of Trade -5.537 -3.6 -0.344 Low -4.41
2026-06-17 Inflation Rate MoM 0.2 0.4 +0.619 Medium +4.24
2026-07-29 Mortgage Approvals 58.2 57.1 +0.233 Medium +4.22
2026-07-06 New Car Sales YoY 11.4 2.8 +0.742 Low +3.95
2026-08-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.2 1.1 +0.101 High +3.89
2026-09-01 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.7 51.5 +0.191 Low +3.80
2026-08-19 Retail Price Index MoM 0.6 0.8 +0.257 Low +3.77
2026-08-21 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM -0.9 -0.5 -0.243 Low -3.74
2026-07-24 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 5.4 3.2 +0.448 Low +3.61
2026-08-07 House Price Index MoM 0.0 0.1 -0.158 Medium -3.51
2026-09-11 Manufacturing Production YoY 2.6 2.0 +0.137 Low +3.42
2026-08-13 Manufacturing Production YoY 0.5 1.2 -0.266 Low -3.40
2026-09-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.58 6.6 +0.147 Low +3.35
2026-09-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.58 6.6 +0.147 Low +3.35
2026-07-21 Employment Change 147.0 85.0 +0.220 Medium +3.31
2026-07-16 Construction Output MoM -0.8 -0.3 -0.481 Low -3.22
2026-08-18 Labour Productivity QoQ -0.8 -0.5 -0.224 Low -3.21
2026-07-21 HMRC Payrolls Change -4.0 20.0 -0.426 Low -3.20
2026-07-16 Balance of Trade -1.044 -3.9 +0.469 Low +3.14
2026-08-21 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 2.3 3.3 -0.197 Low -3.04
2026-07-07 Halifax House Price Index MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.278 Medium +3.03
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.9 1.1 -0.203 High -2.82
2026-06-19 Retail Sales YoY 3.2 1.9 +0.369 Medium +2.65
2026-06-17 Retail Price Index YoY 3.1 3.3 +0.764 Low +2.62
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.6 2.7 +0.366 Medium +2.51
2026-06-30 GDP Growth Rate YoY 0.9 1.1 -0.539 Low -2.49
2026-08-13 Construction Output MoM -0.1 -0.3 +0.192 Low +2.46
2026-07-03 CPI 3.3 3.7 +0.474 Low +2.35
2026-07-22 PPI Core Output YoY 2.6 2.3 -0.303 Low -2.33
2026-07-24 CPI 3.0 3.2 +0.274 Low +2.21
2026-09-11 Balance of Trade -3.45 -4.0 +0.088 Low +2.20
2026-06-19 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 1.2 0.4 +0.608 Low +2.18
2026-06-29 Mortgage Lending 2.89 4.6 -0.235 Medium -2.13
2026-06-17 Retail Price Index MoM 0.2 0.5 +0.616 Low +2.11
2026-06-29 Net Lending to Individuals 4.6 6.0 -0.460 Low -2.08
2026-06-17 PPI Core Output MoM 0.8 0.4 -0.592 Low -2.03
2026-08-18 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.5 3.4 +0.140 Low +2.01
2026-07-27 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 0.9 1.1 +0.229 Low +1.98
2026-07-08 RICS House Price Balance -33.0 -30.0 -0.166 Medium -1.85
2026-08-19 PPI Core Output MoM 0.6 0.5 -0.118 Low -1.74
2026-08-19 PPI Input YoY 4.9 6.6 +0.117 Low +1.73
2026-07-07 House Price Index MoM 0.2 0.1 +0.158 Medium +1.72
2026-09-01 Mortgage Lending 4.29 4.6 -0.043 Medium -1.69
2026-07-29 BoE Consumer Credit 1.807 1.7 +0.092 Medium +1.67
2026-07-27 CBI Distributive Trades -26.0 -45.0 +0.094 Medium +1.63
2026-08-10 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 1.0 1.5 -0.068 Medium -1.63
2026-07-31 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.8 1.9 -0.082 Medium -1.56
2026-06-18 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.4 4.0 +0.218 Medium +1.53
2026-07-22 PPI Output YoY 3.5 4.0 +0.193 Low +1.48
2026-07-21 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.3 4.5 -0.097 Medium -1.45
2026-08-12 RICS House Price Balance -30.0 -31.0 +0.054 Medium +1.34
2026-06-18 HMRC Payrolls Change 2.0 -80.0 +0.364 Low +1.28
2026-08-19 PPI Core Output YoY 2.8 2.7 -0.086 Low -1.27
2026-09-04 New Car Sales YoY 13.7 11.0 +0.059 Low +1.26
2026-07-01 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 2.2 2.4 -0.130 Medium -1.24
2026-06-23 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -45.0 -35.0 -0.154 Medium -1.22
2026-06-17 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.4 +0.337 Low +1.16
2026-07-21 Claimant Count Change 6.7 29.4 +0.153 Low +1.15
2026-07-13 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 1.7 2.9 -0.085 Medium -1.06
2026-07-23 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -45.0 -40.0 -0.068 Medium -1.06
2026-06-18 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.4 3.2 +0.297 Low +1.04
2026-06-29 BoE Consumer Credit 1.662 1.8 -0.112 Medium -1.02
2026-07-21 Public Sector Net Borrowing -16.0 -19.8 -0.134 Low -1.01
2026-06-19 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 4.6 3.3 +0.257 Low +0.92
2026-06-24 Car Production YoY 3.2 -0.5 +0.223 Low +0.90
2026-07-23 CBI Business Optimism Index -36.0 -40.0 +0.049 Medium +0.78
2026-06-17 PPI Input MoM 0.2 0.5 +0.218 Low +0.75
2026-06-17 House Price Index YoY 3.8 2.8 +0.219 Low +0.75
2026-07-22 House Price Index YoY 2.7 3.2 -0.096 Low -0.74
2026-06-18 Employment Change 100.0 75.0 +0.101 Medium +0.71
2026-07-16 Industrial Production YoY 1.0 1.2 -0.105 Low -0.71
2026-08-19 PPI Output YoY 3.1 3.2 +0.048 Low +0.71
2026-06-29 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.1 0.2 -0.153 Low -0.69
2026-07-22 PPI Input YoY 7.3 9.0 +0.086 Low +0.66
2026-06-19 Public Sector Net Borrowing -23.3 -18.5 +0.181 Low +0.65
2026-07-16 Manufacturing Production YoY 2.3 1.9 +0.096 Low +0.64
2026-07-16 Construction Output YoY -1.8 -1.1 -0.096 Low -0.64
2026-06-25 CBI Distributive Trades -54.0 -41.0 -0.071 Medium -0.58
2026-07-16 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.3 1.4 -0.080 Low -0.53
2026-06-18 Consumer Confidence -23.0 -24.0 +0.074 Medium +0.52
2026-08-19 House Price Index YoY 2.0 1.9 +0.032 Low +0.47
2026-08-05 New Car Sales YoY 11.7 10.0 +0.041 Low +0.44
2026-07-29 Car Production YoY -1.2 -0.5 -0.042 Low -0.38
2026-06-30 Business Investment YoY -1.3 -1.8 +0.073 Low +0.34
2026-06-17 PPI Core Output YoY 2.3 2.4 +0.097 Low +0.33
2026-09-11 Construction Output YoY -2.5 -2.3 -0.013 Low -0.33
2026-06-30 Current Account -22.1 -21.5 -0.032 Medium -0.30
2026-06-30 Business Investment QoQ 0.9 0.7 +0.043 Low +0.20
2026-06-18 Claimant Count Change 31.2 25.8 -0.042 Low -0.15
2026-08-13 Construction Output YoY -2.3 -2.4 +0.006 Low +0.08
2026-06-17 PPI Input YoY 8.7 8.8 +0.005 Low +0.02
2026-06-17 PPI Output YoY 4.0 4.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-17 PPI Output MoM 0.5 0.5 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-18 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE MPC Vote Cut 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 79.0 79.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-18 BoE MPC Vote Hike 29.0 29.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-06-29 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.2 1.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-06-30 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-06-30 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.6 0.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-16 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-21 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-21 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.4 3.4 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-07-22 Retail Price Index YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-22 Retail Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-22 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-07-22 Inflation Rate MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-22 CPI MoM 0.1 0.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-07-30 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-30 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-07-31 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-07 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.6 6.6 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-13 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-13 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.4 0.4 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-08-13 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.4 0.4 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-13 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.4 0.4 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-08-18 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.1 4.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-08-19 PPI Output MoM 0.2 0.2 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-08-19 Inflation Rate YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-08-19 CPI MoM 0.3 0.3 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-08-19 CPI YoY 2.9 2.9 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-08-21 Retail Sales MoM -0.5 -0.5 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-08-21 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.5 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-09-03 S&P Global Composite PMI 52.5 52.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-09-11 Construction Output MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms