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Economic Surprises › United Kingdom
United Kingdom +4.9 ▲ vs 1w ago (+2.8)
United Kingdom economic data has been roughly in line with expectations. Over the past 90 days, releases have been close to analyst estimates with no strong directional bias.
Current Score
+4.9
1 Week Ago
+2.8
Releases (90d)
238
Top Beats
5
Top Misses
5
Surprise Index — 3 Year Weekly Trend with FTSE 100 Overlay
G7 Comparison — Economic Surprise Index
▲ Top Positive Surprises
▼ Top Negative Surprises
All Releases — 90 Day Window (238 events)
Date Event Actual Estimate Surprise Z Impact Contribution
2026-03-19 Employment Change 84.0 -4.0 +6.491 High +454.21
2026-02-20 Retail Sales MoM 1.8 0.2 +2.329 High +87.33
2026-03-13 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -3.46 -11.4 +1.985 Medium +80.61
2026-03-19 BoE MPC Vote Cut 9.0 29.0 -1.534 Medium -71.54
2026-03-13 Goods Trade Balance -14.45 -22.2 +1.198 Medium +48.67
2026-03-19 Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.3 +0.691 High +48.35
2026-01-23 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 3.1 0.7 +2.192 High +43.04
2026-02-12 Industrial Production MoM -0.9 -0.1 -2.032 Medium -42.23
2026-03-13 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.0 0.2 -0.570 High -34.71
2026-03-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 3.8 4.0 -1.469 Low -34.27
2026-03-20 Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks -14.3 -8.5 +1.435 Low +34.24
2026-02-20 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 2.0 0.2 +2.694 Low +33.67
2026-01-23 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 51.7 +2.544 Medium +33.30
2026-01-23 S&P Global Services PMI Flash 54.3 51.5 +1.684 High +33.06
2026-01-23 S&P Global Services PMI 54.3 51.7 +2.514 Medium +32.91
2026-02-05 S&P Global Construction PMI 46.4 42.0 +1.726 Medium +30.52
2026-03-05 S&P Global Construction PMI 44.5 47.0 -0.876 Medium -29.59
2026-01-15 Industrial Production MoM 1.1 0.1 +2.540 Medium +27.64
2026-02-05 BoE MPC Vote Cut 49.0 29.0 +1.534 Medium +27.11
2026-02-12 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.839 High -26.16
2026-02-17 Unemployment Rate 5.2 5.1 -0.718 High -25.12
2026-03-05 New Car Sales YoY 7.2 1.0 +1.447 Low +24.42
2026-03-19 HMRC Payrolls Change 20.0 5.0 +1.032 Low +24.06
2026-02-12 Business Investment QoQ -2.7 0.4 -1.141 Medium -23.71
2026-01-20 Employment Change 82.0 -25.0 +1.263 High +23.14
2026-01-15 Industrial Production YoY 2.3 -0.4 +4.243 Low +23.09
2026-01-23 Retail Sales YoY 2.5 0.8 +1.127 High +22.14
2026-03-19 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 99.0 79.0 +0.450 Medium +21.00
2026-03-12 RICS House Price Balance -12.0 -9.0 -0.526 Medium -20.86
2026-03-13 Balance of Trade 3.922 -6.2 +1.027 Low +20.86
2026-03-02 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.0 0.7 +0.660 Medium +20.79
2026-01-15 Manufacturing Production YoY 2.1 -0.3 +3.595 Low +19.56
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.625 High -19.49
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.625 High -19.49
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.625 High -19.49
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.2 -0.625 High -19.49
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 +0.512 High +19.21
2026-01-15 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.3 0.1 +1.140 High +18.60
2026-01-15 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.1 -0.2 +1.688 Medium +18.36
2026-01-15 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.1 -0.2 +1.633 Medium +17.77
2026-02-07 House Price Index MoM 0.7 0.1 +0.936 Medium +17.34
2026-02-07 House Price Index MoM 0.7 0.1 +0.936 Medium +17.34
2026-01-23 Retail Sales MoM 0.4 -0.2 +0.873 High +17.15
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.3 +0.673 Medium +16.82
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.3 +0.673 Medium +16.82
2026-02-17 Employment Change 52.0 -40.0 +0.679 Medium +15.83
2026-01-21 Retail Price Index MoM 0.7 0.2 -2.522 Low -15.76
2026-03-13 Industrial Production MoM -0.1 0.2 -0.381 Medium -15.47
2026-02-12 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.0 1.2 -0.488 High -15.23
2026-03-13 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.2 0.3 -0.375 Medium -15.23
2026-01-21 Inflation Rate MoM 0.4 0.2 -1.213 Medium -15.16
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.5 +0.374 High +14.02
2026-01-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.6 50.6 +1.043 Medium +13.65
2026-02-27 Consumer Confidence -19.0 -15.0 -0.461 Medium -13.55
2026-01-02 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM -0.4 0.1 -1.601 Medium -12.90
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 +0.512 Medium +12.80
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.5 +0.512 Medium +12.80
2026-03-02 Mortgage Approvals 60.0 62.0 -0.386 Medium -12.16
2026-01-15 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -11.46 -9.1 -0.739 High -12.06
2026-02-20 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 52.0 51.5 +0.320 High +11.98
2026-01-21 Inflation Rate YoY 3.4 3.1 -0.634 High -11.90
2026-01-23 Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM 0.3 -0.3 +0.599 High +11.76
2026-02-12 GDP 3-Month Avg 0.1 0.2 -0.563 Medium -11.69
2026-02-12 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.1 0.2 -0.544 Medium -11.31
2026-02-12 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.1 0.2 -0.544 Medium -11.31
2026-02-12 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.1 0.2 -0.544 Medium -11.31
2026-02-12 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.1 0.2 -0.544 Medium -11.31
2026-01-05 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.8 -0.1 +2.608 Low +11.26
2026-01-05 BoE Consumer Credit 2.077 1.1 +1.274 Medium +11.00
2026-02-02 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 1.0 0.7 +0.660 Medium +10.89
2026-01-30 Mortgage Approvals 61.01 64.8 -0.700 Medium -10.77
2026-01-21 Retail Price Index YoY 4.2 3.7 -1.701 Low -10.63
2026-01-23 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash 51.6 50.8 +0.518 High +10.18
2026-02-24 CBI Distributive Trades -43.0 -16.0 -0.368 Medium -10.10
2026-01-15 Construction Output YoY -1.1 0.1 -1.765 Low -9.60
2026-03-06 House Price Index YoY 1.3 0.9 +0.275 Medium +9.49
2026-03-06 House Price Index YoY 1.3 0.9 +0.275 Medium +9.49
2026-03-06 House Price Index YoY 1.3 0.9 +0.275 Medium +9.49
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.5 +0.374 Medium +9.34
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.5 +0.374 Medium +9.34
2026-01-21 PPI Core Output MoM -0.1 0.1 +1.493 Low +9.33
2026-01-23 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 53.9 51.7 +1.409 Low +9.22
2026-01-15 Goods Trade Balance -23.71 -20.4 -0.557 High -9.09
2026-02-18 PPI Core Output MoM 0.2 0.1 -0.746 Low -8.91
2026-01-27 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.5 0.7 -1.230 Low -8.83
2026-02-20 S&P Global Services PMI Flash 53.9 53.5 +0.232 High +8.68
2026-01-15 Manufacturing Production MoM 2.1 0.5 +0.795 Medium +8.65
2026-02-18 PPI Output MoM 0.0 0.2 +0.715 Low +8.53
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.9 53.3 +0.673 Low +8.41
2026-02-20 Retail Sales YoY 4.5 2.8 +0.322 Medium +8.05
2026-02-05 BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 59.0 79.0 -0.450 Medium -7.96
2026-02-12 Manufacturing Production MoM -0.5 -0.2 -0.373 Medium -7.75
2026-02-20 Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks 30.4 23.8 -0.583 Low -7.29
2026-01-21 PPI Input MoM -0.2 0.1 +1.131 Low +7.07
2026-02-18 CPI -0.6 -0.7 -0.585 Low -6.98
2026-03-02 M4 Money Supply MoM -0.1 0.2 -0.435 Low -6.85
2026-02-18 PPI Input YoY -0.2 0.9 +0.563 Low +6.72
2026-01-02 Nationwide Housing Prices YoY 0.6 1.2 -0.770 Medium -6.21
2026-02-12 Construction Output MoM -0.5 0.5 -0.569 Low -5.91
2026-02-12 Construction Output MoM -0.5 0.5 -0.569 Low -5.91
2026-02-12 Construction Output MoM -0.5 0.5 -0.569 Low -5.91
2026-02-12 Construction Output MoM -0.5 0.5 -0.569 Low -5.91
2026-01-08 House Price Index MoM -0.6 0.2 -0.624 Medium -5.78
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.0 1.2 -0.178 High -5.55
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.0 1.2 -0.178 High -5.55
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.0 1.2 -0.178 High -5.55
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.0 1.2 -0.178 High -5.55
2026-01-08 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.77 6.6 -1.194 Low -5.53
2026-03-19 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 3.8 4.0 -0.233 Low -5.44
2026-03-10 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 0.7 2.4 -0.141 Medium -5.35
2026-01-15 Construction Output MoM -1.3 -0.3 -0.949 Low -5.16
2026-02-07 House Price Index YoY 1.0 1.8 -0.275 Medium -5.09
2026-01-06 New Car Sales YoY 3.9 -1.0 +1.143 Low +5.05
2026-03-13 Manufacturing Production MoM 0.1 0.2 -0.124 Medium -5.05
2026-02-06 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.62 6.7 +0.554 Low +5.01
2026-03-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.7 52.0 -0.304 Low -4.79
2026-01-15 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.4 1.1 +0.291 High +4.76
2026-02-20 S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 53.9 53.3 +0.373 Low +4.66
2026-01-21 PPI Output MoM 0.0 0.1 +0.715 Low +4.47
2026-02-12 Industrial Production YoY 0.5 1.5 -0.419 Low -4.35
2026-02-17 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.2 4.6 -0.186 Medium -4.34
2026-03-13 Industrial Production YoY 0.4 0.6 -0.210 Low -4.25
2026-02-20 Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY 5.5 3.6 +0.337 Low +4.22
2026-01-08 House Price Index YoY 0.3 1.1 -0.449 Medium -4.16
2026-01-21 Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.2 -0.657 Low -4.11
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.7 1.1 -0.389 Low -4.04
2026-02-18 PPI Output YoY 2.5 3.2 +0.331 Low +3.95
2026-01-21 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.2 3.1 -0.313 Medium -3.92
2026-02-18 Retail Price Index YoY 3.8 3.9 +0.323 Low +3.85
2026-03-03 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.1 1.4 +0.231 Low +3.72
2026-03-03 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.1 1.4 +0.231 Low +3.72
2026-03-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.7 53.9 -0.222 Low -3.66
2026-02-10 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 2.3 1.2 +0.183 Medium +3.63
2026-03-02 BRC Shop Price Index YoY 1.1 1.4 +0.231 Low +3.63
2026-01-06 S&P Global Composite PMI 51.4 52.1 -0.803 Low -3.55
2026-02-12 Manufacturing Production YoY 0.5 1.8 -0.325 Low -3.37
2026-02-18 PPI Core Output YoY 2.9 3.3 +0.276 Low +3.29
2026-01-22 Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks -11.58 -15.0 -0.479 Low -3.07
2025-12-22 Current Account -12.1 -21.3 +0.486 Medium +3.04
2026-02-18 Retail Price Index MoM -0.5 -0.4 +0.252 Low +3.01
2026-03-13 Construction Output YoY -0.2 -0.1 -0.147 Low -2.99
2026-02-12 RICS House Price Balance -10.0 -11.0 +0.143 Medium +2.98
2026-03-02 BoE Consumer Credit 1.812 1.7 +0.094 Medium +2.98
2026-01-06 S&P Global Services PMI 51.4 52.1 -0.672 Low -2.97
2025-12-22 Business Investment QoQ 1.5 -0.3 +0.883 Low +2.76
2026-01-15 Balance of Trade -6.116 -3.5 -0.470 Low -2.56
2026-01-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.6 51.2 -0.618 Low -2.49
2026-02-18 House Price Index YoY 2.4 1.8 +0.206 Low +2.46
2026-02-18 House Price Index YoY 2.4 1.8 +0.206 Low +2.46
2026-02-18 House Price Index YoY 2.4 1.8 +0.206 Low +2.46
2026-02-18 House Price Index YoY 2.4 1.8 +0.206 Low +2.46
2026-01-20 HMRC Payrolls Change -43.0 -20.0 -0.395 Low -2.42
2026-03-13 Gross Domestic Product YoY 0.8 0.9 -0.119 Low -2.41
2026-02-04 S&P Global Services PMI 54.0 54.3 -0.276 Low -2.39
2025-12-22 Business Investment YoY 2.7 0.7 +0.729 Low +2.28
2026-01-30 BoE Consumer Credit 1.524 1.7 -0.148 Medium -2.28
2026-02-18 Core Inflation Rate MoM -0.6 -0.7 -0.188 Low -2.24
2026-01-05 Net Lending to Individuals 6.6 5.2 +0.498 Low +2.15
2026-01-15 RICS House Price Balance -14.0 -16.0 +0.197 Medium +2.15
2026-01-13 BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY 1.0 0.6 +0.133 High +2.07
2026-01-22 CBI Distributive Trades -17.0 -57.0 +0.153 Medium +1.96
2026-02-04 S&P Global Composite PMI 53.7 53.9 -0.222 Low -1.92
2026-01-05 Net Lending to Individuals MoM 6.6 5.2 +0.426 Low +1.84
2026-02-12 Balance of Trade -4.34 -6.0 +0.174 Low +1.81
2026-01-21 CBI Business Optimism Index -19.0 -27.0 +0.143 Medium +1.79
2026-03-20 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -27.0 -29.0 +0.037 Medium +1.75
2026-02-02 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.8 51.6 +0.204 Low +1.69
2026-01-21 House Price Index YoY 2.5 1.8 +0.240 Low +1.50
2026-02-05 New Car Sales YoY 3.4 2.0 +0.163 Low +1.44
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals 5.9 6.2 -0.090 Low -1.41
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals 5.9 6.2 -0.090 Low -1.41
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals 5.9 6.2 -0.090 Low -1.41
2026-01-23 Consumer Confidence -16.0 -17.0 +0.102 Medium +1.33
2026-03-13 Manufacturing Production YoY 1.3 1.5 -0.060 Low -1.22
2026-03-06 BBA Mortgage Rate 6.59 6.6 +0.070 Low +1.21
2026-03-02 Net Lending to Individuals MoM 5.9 6.2 -0.076 Low -1.20
2026-01-20 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 4.7 4.5 +0.095 Medium +1.16
2026-02-12 Goods Trade Balance Non-EU -10.99 -11.2 +0.053 Medium +1.11
2026-02-27 Car Production YoY -8.2 5.3 -0.074 Low -1.08
2026-02-12 Business Investment YoY 2.0 3.1 -0.091 Low -0.94
2026-01-21 PPI Core Output YoY 3.2 3.4 +0.134 Low +0.84
2026-01-22 Public Sector Net Borrowing -11.58 -13.4 -0.093 Low -0.60
2026-01-21 PPI Input YoY 0.8 1.0 +0.092 Low +0.58
2026-02-17 Claimant Count Change 28.6 22.8 -0.050 Low -0.58
2026-03-02 Mortgage Lending 4.08 4.2 -0.018 Medium -0.56
2026-01-21 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -30.0 -28.0 -0.038 Medium -0.47
2026-02-12 Construction Orders YoY 28.6 25.0 +0.043 Low +0.44
2026-02-17 HMRC Payrolls Change -11.0 -10.0 -0.034 Low -0.40
2026-01-21 PPI Output YoY 3.4 3.3 -0.046 Low -0.29
2026-01-05 Mortgage Approvals 64.53 64.4 +0.024 Medium +0.21
2026-01-30 Mortgage Lending 4.6 4.5 +0.014 Medium +0.21
2026-03-19 Claimant Count Change 24.7 25.8 +0.008 Low +0.19
2026-01-20 Claimant Count Change 17.9 20.5 +0.025 Low +0.15
2026-02-12 Goods Trade Balance -22.72 -22.7 -0.003 Medium -0.06
2026-01-05 Mortgage Lending 4.49 4.5 -0.001 Medium -0.01
2025-12-22 Gross Domestic Product QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 High +0.00
2025-12-22 GDP Growth Rate YoY 1.3 1.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2025-12-22 Gross Domestic Product YoY 1.3 1.3 +0.000 High +0.00
2025-12-22 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 0.1 0.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-07 S&P Global Construction PMI 40.1 40.1 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-01-20 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 4.5 4.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-20 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 4.5 4.5 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-20 Unemployment Rate 5.1 5.1 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-01-30 Net Lending to Individuals 6.1 6.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-30 Net Lending to Individuals 6.1 6.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-30 Net Lending to Individuals 6.1 6.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-30 Net Lending to Individuals MoM 6.1 6.1 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-01-30 M4 Money Supply MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-02 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-05 BoE MPC Vote Hike 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-02-05 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-12 Gross Domestic Product MoM 0.1 0.1 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-02-17 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 4.2 4.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-17 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 4.2 4.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-17 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) 4.2 4.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-17 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 4.2 4.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-17 Average Earnings excl. Bonus 4.2 4.2 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-17 Labour Productivity QoQ -0.6 -0.6 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-02-18 CPI -0.5 -0.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 PPI Input MoM 0.4 0.4 -0.000 Low -0.00
2026-02-18 Inflation Rate MoM -0.5 -0.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 Inflation Rate YoY 3.0 3.0 -0.000 High -0.00
2026-02-18 Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.1 3.1 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-18 CPI -0.5 -0.5 -0.000 Medium -0.00
2026-02-19 CBI Industrial Trends Orders -28.0 -28.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-02 Nationwide Housing Prices MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-04 S&P Global Services PMI 53.9 53.9 +0.000 Low +0.00
2026-03-06 House Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-06 House Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-06 House Price Index MoM 0.3 0.3 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-13 NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.2 0.2 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-19 Average Earnings incl. Bonus 3.9 3.9 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-19 BoE MPC Vote Hike 9.0 9.0 +0.000 Medium +0.00
2026-03-19 BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00
2026-03-19 Interest Rate Decision 3.75 3.75 +0.000 High +0.00

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