ARFFX
Ariel Focus Investor
1W: -2.7%
1M: -8.4%
3M: -3.0%
YTD: +7.0%
1Y: -4.6%
3Y: +47.2%
5Y: +31.5%
$18.89
+0.05 (+0.27%)
Weekly Expected Move ±1.2%
$18
$19
$19
$19
$19
Portfolio Health Summary
IS Overall Score
49.7
★★★★★
Altman Z-Score
2.42
Grey Zone
Weight Coverage
89%
of portfolio analyzed
Holdings Matched
27
with fundamental data
InsiderStreet Scorecard
★★★★★
49.7
Top Holdings: Score Breakdown
Risk & Quality Signals
Altman Z-Score
2.42
Grey Zone (1.81–2.99)
Piotroski F-Score
6.4 / 9
Moderate
Beneish M-Score
1.94
Possible Manipulator
Credit Score
—
Earnings Quality
63.6 / 100
Portfolio Valuation
P/E
12.52x
P/B
1.86x
P/S
2.29x
EV/EBITDA
13.53x
EV/Revenue
4.28x
P/FCF
8.30x
P/OCF
6.61x
PEG
1.35x
Earnings Yield
7.99%
FCF Yield
12.05%
OCF Yield
15.13%
Median P/E
18.53x
Growth & Shareholder Returns
Year-over-Year Growth
Revenue
+14.2%
Net Income
+28.7%
EPS
+30.0%
FCF
+20.4%
EBITDA
+39.4%
Op. Income
—
Compound Growth Rates
Rev CAGR 3Y
+5.3%
Rev CAGR 5Y
+5.1%
EPS CAGR 3Y
+9.2%
EPS CAGR 5Y
+5.1%
FCF CAGR 3Y
+34.6%
FCF CAGR 5Y
-0.1%
EBITDA CAGR 3Y
+21.7%
EBITDA CAGR 5Y
+3.0%
Payout Ratio
25.53%
Buyback Yield
2.83%
Dividend Yield
1.68%
Total Shareholder Return
4.16%
Earnings Stability
Monte Carlo Price Simulation
Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.
Current Price
$18.84
Median 1Y
$20.00
5th Pctile
$14.02
95th Pctile
$28.82
Ann. Volatility
22.7%
25th–75th percentile
5th–95th percentile
Median path
Historical
All Ratios & Metrics
Valuation (12)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Portfolio P/E | 12.52 |
| Portfolio P/B | 1.86 |
| Portfolio P/S | 2.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.53 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.28 |
| P/FCF | 8.30 |
| P/OCF | 6.61 |
| PEG | 1.35 |
| Earnings Yield | 7.99% |
| FCF Yield | 12.05% |
| OCF Yield | 15.13% |
| Median P/E | 18.53 |
Profitability & Returns (9)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 30.79% |
| Operating Margin | 17.14% |
| Net Margin | 18.21% |
| FCF Margin | 26.02% |
| ROE | 15.72% |
| ROA | 2.45% |
| ROIC | 7.67% |
| ROCE | — |
| Asset Turnover | — |
Leverage & Solvency (6)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.87 |
| Debt/Assets | 0.14 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 2.90 |
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 |
| Current Ratio | 1.03 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.85 |
Efficiency (4)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | — |
| Inventory Turnover | — |
| Receivables Turnover | — |
| Payables Turnover | — |
Growth — YoY (6)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 14.25% |
| Net Income Growth | 28.70% |
| EPS Growth | 30.01% |
| FCF Growth | 20.38% |
| EBITDA Growth | 39.35% |
| Op. Income Growth | — |
Growth — CAGR (16)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 3Y | 5.34% |
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.10% |
| Revenue CAGR 10Y | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y | 9.24% |
| EPS CAGR 5Y | 5.06% |
| EPS CAGR 10Y | — |
| FCF CAGR 3Y | 34.64% |
| FCF CAGR 5Y | -0.06% |
| FCF CAGR 10Y | — |
| EBITDA CAGR 3Y | 21.73% |
| EBITDA CAGR 5Y | 3.03% |
| EBITDA CAGR 10Y | — |
| Net Income CAGR 3Y | 7.27% |
| Net Income CAGR 5Y | 2.91% |
| Op. Income CAGR 3Y | — |
| Op. Income CAGR 5Y | — |
Quality Scores (13)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| IS Overall | 49.7 |
| IS Profitability | 48.4 |
| IS Balance Sheet | 54.1 |
| IS Earnings Quality | 63.6 |
| IS Growth | 49.0 |
| IS Value | 64.3 |
| IS Momentum | 65.6 |
| IS Safety | 61.8 |
| IS Quality | 63.6 |
| Altman Z-Score | 2.42 |
| Piotroski F-Score | 6.36 |
| Beneish M-Score | 1.94 |
| Credit Score | — |
Dividends & Payout (4)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
| Payout Ratio | 25.53% |
| Buyback Yield | 2.83% |
| Total Shareholder Return | 4.16% |
Growth Stability (4)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Stability | 0.587 |
| Earnings Stability | 0.362 |
| Earnings Persistence | 0.707 |
| Margin Stability | 0.782 |
Medians (3)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median P/E | 18.53 |
| Median P/B | 1.70 |
| Median Dividend Yield | — |
Coverage Meta (3)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weight Coverage % | 88.50% |
| Holdings Matched | 27 |
| Total Holdings | 29 |