US Market Regime
Where each market sits on two questions: are most stocks taking part (breadth: the share above their 200-day average) and is the index itself trending up (strength). As of Nov 6, 2026.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Most stocks are still above their 200-day average but the index has stalled or slipped: the leaders are fading while the rest hold up.
5 years by count by weight · band = state
Strength, 5 years cap-weighted (SPY) equal-weighted (every stock one vote) · now -4.9 vs -2.0
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)
Fewer than half the stocks are above their 200-day average and the index is falling or flat: a broad pullback.
5 years by count by weight · band = state
Strength, 5 years cap-weighted (QQQ) equal-weighted (every stock one vote) · now -9.0 vs -6.6
All US stocks: Broad & weak
50% of 3,006 stocks (price above $5, $2M+ traded a day) are above their 200-day average, 49% by market value; -0.8% net new 52-week highs. Most stocks are still above their 200-day average but the index has stalled or slipped: the leaders are fading while the rest hold up.
Insider buying breadth
Of the companies whose insiders traded on the open market in the week of Nov 2, 2026, 20% saw buying (127 companies with buys, 498 with sales). The typical week since 2004 is 26%; this week is higher than 19% of them.
5 years, by Form 4 filing week · dashed = long-run median. Highest weeks on record: Nov 24, 2008 (69%), Mar 9, 2009 (69%), Aug 8, 2011 (76%), Mar 9, 2020 (73%), Mar 16, 2020 (74%).
Open-market purchases and sales only (Form 4 codes P and S). Grants and awards, option exercises, shares withheld for tax and gifts are left out. Sales include pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan sales, which are often routine rather than a view on the stock, so purchases are the cleaner signal. Each company counts once a week, however many of its insiders traded.
Sector rotation
Each sector against the S&P 500. Across: is it beating the market compared with its own recent average (right of 100 = yes). Up: has that reading risen or fallen lately (above 100 = risen). Sectors tend to travel clockwise: Recovering, Leading, Fading, Lagging.
Tails: the last 20 days, to Nov 6, 2026.
| Sector | Now | 20 trading days ago |
|---|---|---|
| Materials XLB | Leading | Lagging |
| Financials XLF | Leading | Lagging |
| Staples XLP | Leading | Recovering |
| Health care XLV | Leading | Fading |
| Discretionary XLY | Leading | Recovering |
| Energy XLE | Fading | Leading |
| Industrials XLI | Recovering | Lagging |
| Real estate XLRE | Recovering | Lagging |
| Utilities XLU | Recovering | Recovering |
| Communication XLC | Lagging | Lagging |
| Technology XLK | Lagging | Leading |
Tails: the last 8 weeks, to Nov 6, 2026.
| Sector | Now | 8 weeks ago |
|---|---|---|
| Materials XLB | Leading | Lagging |
| Energy XLE | Leading | Leading |
| Financials XLF | Leading | Fading |
| Staples XLP | Leading | Lagging |
| Health care XLV | Leading | Fading |
| Discretionary XLY | Leading | Lagging |
| Industrials XLI | Recovering | Lagging |
| Real estate XLRE | Recovering | Lagging |
| Utilities XLU | Recovering | Lagging |
| Communication XLC | Lagging | Recovering |
| Technology XLK | Lagging | Fading |
Tails: the last 8 months, to Nov 6, 2026.
| Sector | Now | 8 months ago |
|---|---|---|
| Materials XLB | Leading | Fading |
| Energy XLE | Leading | Leading |
| Financials XLF | Leading | Lagging |
| Staples XLP | Leading | Lagging |
| Health care XLV | Leading | Lagging |
| Technology XLK | Fading | Leading |
| Real estate XLRE | Recovering | Recovering |
| Utilities XLU | Recovering | Fading |
| Discretionary XLY | Recovering | Lagging |
| Communication XLC | Lagging | Lagging |
| Industrials XLI | Lagging | Fading |
Leading: beating the market and pulling further ahead. Fading: still ahead but losing pace. Lagging: behind and still falling back. Recovering: behind but closing the gap. Daily compares with the last 6 months, weekly with 26 weeks, monthly with 12 months.
Sector, style and country ETFs
| ETF | State | Breadth by count | Breadth by weight | 1 month, pts | Strength, cap-weighted | Strength, equal-weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Narrow & weak | 41% |
49% |
-32 | -11.6 |
-10.3 |
| XLF | Broad & weak | 70% |
75% |
+19 | -1.1 |
-1.0 |
| XLV | Broad & strong | 90% |
96% |
+13 | +9.7 |
+11.0 |
| XLE | Narrow & strong | 43% |
72% |
-29 | +2.4 |
-2.0 |
| XLI | Narrow & weak | 47% |
45% |
+5 | -11.9 |
-6.6 |
| XLY | Broad & weak | 55% |
60% |
+21 | -1.7 |
-1.2 |
| XLP | Broad & strong | 72% |
86% |
+28 | +6.0 |
+3.8 |
| XLC | Narrow & weak | 24% |
17% |
-10 | -6.9 |
-5.7 |
| XLU | Broad & weak | 52% |
50% |
+42 | -2.6 |
-1.6 |
| XLB | Broad & weak | 62% |
70% |
+33 | -1.9 |
-3.2 |
| XLRE | Narrow & weak | 41% |
50% |
+21 | -0.9 |
-1.4 |
| SMH | Narrow & weak | 17% |
16% |
-67 | -18.5 |
-18.6 |
| IWM | Narrow & weak | 45% |
55% |
-2 | -8.8 |
-9.6 |
| MDY | Broad & weak | 51% |
54% |
+9 | -7.0 |
-4.6 |
| IBB | Narrow & strong | 43% |
84% |
-3 | +6.8 |
-11.9 |
| KRE | Broad & weak | 79% |
75% |
+19 | -5.0 |
-3.5 |
| ITB | Broad & weak | 51% |
67% |
+39 | -2.0 |
-5.1 |
| IGV | Broad & weak | 66% |
62% |
+0 | -5.9 |
+0.7 |
| EFA | Broad & weak | 58% |
58% |
+6 | -5.7 |
-2.3 |
| EEM | Narrow & weak | 34% |
31% |
-2 | -9.0 |
-10.0 |
| INDA | Broad & strong | 54% |
61% |
+26 | +1.5 |
-2.7 |
| EWJ | Narrow & weak | 40% |
41% |
-11 | -8.1 |
-6.6 |
| FXI | Narrow & weak | 49% |
53% |
+9 | -4.2 |
-5.6 |
| EWZ | Narrow & weak | 25% |
30% |
-57 | -13.9 |
-4.6 |
6 months. Breadth: share of holdings above their 200-day average, by count and by weight (dashed: 50%). Strength: the ETF itself (cap-weighted) and its holdings averaged equally (dashed: 0); each pair shares a scale. Strength is the weaker of the distance above the 200-day average and the 3-month return, in %.
How to read it
Breadth (across) is the share of a market's stocks above their 200-day average: how many are taking part. Strength (up) is the weaker of the index's distance above its own 200-day average and its 3-month return, so it is positive only when the index is above that average and rising. The line on the map is the last 3 months; the large dot is today.
Breadth is shown two ways. By count, every stock is one vote. By weight, each counts by market value. When the two split, the index is being carried (or dragged) by its largest companies.
A state changes only on a clear break (breadth past 53% or below 47%, strength past ±1%), so a reading sitting on the line does not flip it every day.
History uses today's members (S&P 500 from each stock's date added), so stocks removed or delisted since are missing, which flatters older readings. Prices adjusted for splits and dividends; market values roll the last reported quarterly value forward with the share price. This describes the market as it is, not a forecast.