— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice

001391.SZ SHZ

Air China Cargo Co Ltd
1W: -2.3% 1M: -5.7% 3M: -7.7% YTD: -36.0% 1Y: -43.0%
¥3.84 ($0.57)
+0.04 (+1.05%)
 
SHZ · Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Tech Score Strong Sell · Power 30 · ¥46.9B mcap · 1.83B float · 1.19% daily turnover

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

A-
Sep 30, 2026
DCF
3
ROE
3
ROA
4
D/E
5
P/E
2
P/B
3
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. 001391.SZ receives an overall rating of A-. Strongest factors: ROA (4/5), D/E (5/5). Areas of concern: P/E (2/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-08-31 B+ A-
2026-07-27 A- B+
2026-07-23 B+ A-
2026-07-01 A- B+
2026-05-29 B+ A-
2026-05-06 None ADDED
2026-05-05 EXISTED None
2026-04-24 B B+
2026-04-01 A- B
2026-03-24 B+ A-

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 65 Grade B
Profitability
25
Balance Sheet
92
Earnings Quality
58
Growth
64
Value
64
Momentum
90
Safety
100
Cash Flow
65
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. 001391.SZ scores highest in Safety (100/100) and lowest in Profitability (25/100). A grade of B indicates above-average fundamentals with room for improvement in select areas.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
7.46
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score
5/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.19
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-12.89
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
AAA
Score: 97.2/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 2.72x
Accruals: -12.7%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. 001391.SZ scores 7.46, placing it in the Safe Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Bankruptcy is statistically unlikely within the next two years. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. 001391.SZ scores 5/9, indicating moderate financial health — some areas of strength offset by weaknesses in others. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. 001391.SZ's score of -2.19 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. 001391.SZ's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. 001391.SZ receives an estimated rating of AAA (score: 97.2/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). 001391.SZ's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
20.59x
PEG
-4.12x
P/S
1.91x
P/B
1.76x
P/FCF
18.32x
P/OCF
7.92x
EV/EBITDA
12.16x
EV/Revenue
1.80x
EV/EBIT
17.20x
EV/FCF
16.58x
Earnings Yield
4.64%
FCF Yield
5.46%
Shareholder Yield
0.27%
Graham Number
$3.02
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 20.6x earnings, 001391.SZ commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $3.02 per share, 27% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.757
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
1.166
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.105
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.803
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
1.169
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
8.7%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. 001391.SZ's ROE of 8.7% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.803), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
2.69%
Fair P/E
13.88x
Intrinsic Value
$2.57
Price/Value
1.55x
Margin of Safety
-55.16%
Premium
55.16%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with 001391.SZ's realized 2.7% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. 001391.SZ trades at a 55% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $2.57, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 13.9x compares to the current market P/E of 20.6x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 401 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$3.84
Median 1Y
$2.11
5th Pctile
$1.28
95th Pctile
$3.49
Ann. Volatility
30.9%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
ROE 3.4% 5.6% 8.2% 10.3% 10.0% 9.4% 8.7% 8.67%
ROA 3.1% 5.0% 7.1% 9.2% 9.0% 8.4% 7.4% 7.42%
ROIC 4.5% 7.1% 10.4% 12.9% 11.6% 10.4% 8.8% 8.78%
ROCE 4.6% 7.4% 10.9% 13.7% 12.5% 11.0% 9.5% 9.47%
Gross Margin 21.0% 16.5% 16.4% 15.7% 19.4% 12.3% 8.7% 8.73%
Operating Margin 17.9% 14.9% 15.3% 13.9% 14.8% 8.5% 5.5% 5.48%
Net Margin 13.4% 11.2% 11.5% 10.5% 12.0% 9.0% 6.1% 6.09%
EBITDA Margin 23.5% 15.0% 15.4% 18.6% 21.3% 8.5% 10.9% 10.86%
FCF Margin -23.6% -19.3% -13.6% -7.1% -1.0% 4.9% 10.9% 10.86%
OCF Margin 21.3% 16.3% 17.5% 18.3% 18.8% 19.9% 25.1% 25.12%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 7.28%
Cash ROA snapshot only 19.46%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 27.85%
CROIC snapshot only 12.05%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 7.92%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 12.21%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 0.05%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 3.52%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
P/E Ratio 116.74 55.87 36.97 29.07 27.96 25.82 21.53 20.590
P/S Ratio 15.59 6.91 4.47 3.39 3.16 2.79 1.99 1.915
P/B Ratio 4.03 3.11 3.03 2.99 2.69 2.34 1.82 1.756
P/FCF -65.98 -35.85 -32.87 -47.74 -312.92 57.43 18.32 18.315
P/OCF 73.25 42.46 25.59 18.53 16.83 14.02 7.92 7.922
EV/EBITDA 62.39 32.68 22.78 17.28 16.61 15.81 12.16 12.157
EV/Revenue 14.66 6.43 4.15 3.17 2.94 2.56 1.80 1.801
EV/EBIT 81.81 38.73 25.66 20.27 19.90 19.28 17.20 17.202
EV/FCF -62.04 -33.34 -30.57 -44.54 -291.09 52.73 16.58 16.581
Earnings Yield 0.9% 1.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 4.6% 4.64%
FCF Yield -1.5% -2.8% -3.0% -2.1% -0.3% 1.7% 5.5% 5.46%
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 1.855
EV/OCF snapshot only 7.172
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 13.022
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 17.226
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.27%
Graham Number snapshot only $3.02
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Current Ratio 3.21 3.34 2.50 3.17 2.89 3.00 2.04 2.036
Quick Ratio 3.21 3.33 2.50 3.16 2.89 3.00 2.03 2.035
Debt/Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.016
Net Debt/Equity -0.24 -0.22 -0.21 -0.20 -0.19 -0.19 -0.17 -0.173
Debt/Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.014
Debt/EBITDA 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.13 0.12 0.119
Net Debt/EBITDA -3.96 -2.46 -1.71 -1.24 -1.25 -1.41 -1.27 -1.272
Interest Coverage 352.45 317.28 329.30 343.05 370.98 291.82 216.46 216.462
Equity Multiplier 1.12 1.11 1.15 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.18 1.184
Cash Ratio snapshot only 1.114
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 306.308
Cash to Debt snapshot only 11.715
FCF to Debt snapshot only 6.177
Defensive Interval snapshot only 4063.5 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Asset Turnover 0.23 0.40 0.59 0.79 0.79 0.77 0.80 0.803
Inventory Turnover 1101.95 1196.60 2510.42 1293.53 4085.68 3029.27 3798.17 3798.168
Receivables Turnover 2.25 3.77 5.57 7.35 7.78 7.53 7.15 7.147
Payables Turnover 2.83 5.59 7.44 10.87 10.03 10.62 9.90 9.904
DSO 162 97 66 50 47 48 51 51.1 days
DIO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 days
DPO 129 65 49 34 36 34 37 36.9 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 33 32 17 16 11 14 14 14.3 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 1.168
Operating Cycle snapshot only 51.2 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 4.853
Capital Intensity snapshot only 1.291
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue — — — — 2.6% 98.6% 41.6% 41.60%
Net Income — — — — 2.0% 73.6% 8.3% 8.30%
EPS — — — — 1.7% 64.6% 2.7% 2.69%
FCF — — — — 84.6% 1.5% 2.1% 2.13%
EBITDA — — — — 1.7% 63.7% 15.0% 15.05%
Op. Income — — — — 2.0% 59.2% -8.2% -8.22%
OCF Growth snapshot only 1.04%
Asset Growth snapshot only 7.53%
Equity Growth snapshot only 4.68%
Debt Growth snapshot only 4.77%
Shares Change snapshot only 5.46%
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — — — — —
Earnings Stability — — — — — — — —
Margin Stability — — — — — — — —
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — — — — —
Earnings Smoothness — — — — 0.00 0.46 0.92 0.920
ROE Trend — — — — — — — —
Gross Margin Trend — — — — — — — —
FCF Margin Trend — — — — — — — —
Sustainable Growth Rate 3.4% 5.6% 8.2% 10.3% 10.0% 9.4% 8.2% 8.16%
Internal Growth Rate 3.2% 5.3% 7.7% 10.2% 9.9% 9.1% 7.5% 7.51%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
OCF/Net Income 1.59 1.32 1.44 1.57 1.66 1.84 2.72 2.718
FCF/OCF -1.11 -1.18 -0.78 -0.39 -0.05 0.24 0.43 0.433
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 1.176
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 1.695
CapEx/Revenue 44.9% 35.6% 31.0% 25.4% 19.8% 15.1% 14.3% 14.25%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 3.279
Accruals Ratio -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.06 -0.07 -0.13 -0.127
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.068
Cash Flow Adequacy snapshot only 1.698
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.27%
Dividend/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.09
Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 5.84%
FCF Payout Ratio — — — — — 0.0% 5.0% 4.97%
Total Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 5.84%
Div. Increase Streak — — — — — — 0 0
Chowder Number — — — — — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% -0.7% -0.9% -0.93%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% -0.7% -0.7% -0.66%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.757
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.08 1.17 1.166
EBIT Margin 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.10 0.105
Asset Turnover 0.23 0.40 0.59 0.79 0.79 0.77 0.80 0.803
Equity Multiplier 1.12 1.11 1.15 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.17 1.169
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $0.08 $0.12 $0.18 $0.23 $0.21 $0.20 $0.19 $0.19
Book Value/Share $2.27 $2.21 $2.20 $2.19 $2.20 $2.24 $2.19 $2.19
Tangible Book/Share $2.23 $2.18 $2.17 $2.16 $2.16 $2.20 $2.15 $2.15
Revenue/Share $0.59 $1.00 $1.49 $1.93 $1.87 $1.88 $2.01 $2.01
FCF/Share $-0.14 $-0.19 $-0.20 $-0.14 $-0.02 $0.09 $0.22 $0.22
OCF/Share $0.12 $0.16 $0.26 $0.35 $0.35 $0.37 $0.50 $0.50
Cash/Share $0.55 $0.49 $0.47 $0.45 $0.42 $0.47 $0.41 $0.41
EBITDA/Share $0.14 $0.20 $0.27 $0.35 $0.33 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30
Debt/Share $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Net Debt/Share $-0.54 $-0.48 $-0.47 $-0.44 $-0.41 $-0.43 $-0.38 $-0.38
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — 7.464
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 12.607
Piotroski F-Score 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5
Beneish M-Score — — — — -2.16 -2.54 -2.19 -2.194
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -12.886
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 9.99%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $0.35
EVA snapshot only $-269978051.31
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26 Q2'26 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only AAA
Credit Score 93.40 93.43 92.20 93.36 93.16 96.74 97.16 97.155
Credit Grade snapshot only 1
Credit Trend snapshot only 4.959
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 50.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 97
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 92

Sign in to InsiderStreet

You'll also get our free weekly newsletter with
smart money signals, market insights, and alpha ideas.
Unsubscribe anytime.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data sourced from SEC filings. Privacy Terms