— Know what they know.
Not Investment Advice
Also trades as: TYGIF (OTC) · $vol 0M

4970.T JPX

Toyo Gosei Co.,Ltd.
1W: +8.2% 1M: -4.6% 3M: -34.9% YTD: +10.8% 1Y: +139.5% 3Y: +21.8% 5Y: -11.9%
¥10,780.00 ($68.30)
+190.00 (+1.79%)
 
Weekly Expected Move ±7.3%
¥9199 ¥9990 ¥10780 ¥11570 ¥12361
JPX · Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialty · Tech Score Neutral · Power 46 · ¥85.6B mcap · 5M float · 1.50% daily turnover

Financial Rating

Composite financial health rating (A+ to F) based on discounted cash flow valuation, return on equity, return on assets, debt-to-equity leverage, and relative P/E and P/B multiples.

C+
Oct 02, 2026
DCF
1
ROE
4
ROA
5
D/E
1
P/E
1
P/B
1
The Financial Rating evaluates six fundamental factors — discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), debt-to-equity leverage (D/E), and relative price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples — each scored 1–5. 4970.T receives an overall rating of C+. Strongest factors: ROE (4/5), ROA (5/5). Areas of concern: DCF (1/5), D/E (1/5), P/E (1/5), P/B (1/5).
Rating Change History
DateFromTo
2026-09-24 None ADDED
2026-09-23 EXISTED None
2026-07-01 B- C+
2026-05-13 B B-
2026-05-07 None ADDED
2026-05-06 EXISTED None
2026-04-24 B- B
2026-02-12 C+ B-
2026-02-09 B- C+
2026-01-05 None ADDED

InsiderStreet Scorecard

Proprietary multi-factor scorecard rating companies across seven fundamental dimensions — profitability, balance sheet strength, earnings quality, growth, value, momentum, and safety — each scored 0–100.

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 68 Grade A
Profitability
43
Balance Sheet
60
Earnings Quality
69
Growth
77
Value
44
Momentum
100
Safety
50
Cash Flow
77
The InsiderStreet Scorecard rates companies across eight dimensions: Profitability (margins, ROA, ROE), Balance Sheet (leverage, liquidity, coverage), Earnings Quality (accruals, cash conversion), Growth (revenue and earnings trajectory), Value (P/E, P/B, earnings yield, Graham criteria), Momentum (revenue and earnings acceleration), Safety (Altman Z-Score risk adjustment), and Cash Flow (operating cash flow quality, FCF conversion, cash coverage). The overall score blends 35% quality, 35% value, and 30% momentum, with a penalty for distress-zone Altman scores. 4970.T scores highest in Momentum (100/100) and lowest in Profitability (43/100). An overall grade of A places 4970.T among the highest-quality companies in its peer group.

Risk & Quality Signals

Academic financial models used by institutional investors to assess bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, financial strength, and credit quality.

Altman Z-Score
2.31
Grey Zone
Piotroski F-Score
8/9
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
Beneish M-Score
-2.75
Unlikely Manipulator
Ohlson O-Score
-8.15
Bankruptcy prob: 0.0%
Low Risk
Credit Rating
BBB
Score: 55.6/100
Trend: Improving
Earnings Quality
75/100
OCF/NI: 2.06x
Accruals: -5.6%
The Altman Z-Score (1968) combines five ratios — working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales, all relative to total assets or liabilities — into a single bankruptcy predictor. 4970.T scores 2.31, placing it in the Grey Zone (safe > 2.99, distress < 1.81). Financial distress is possible and warrants monitoring. The Piotroski F-Score (2000) is a 9-point binary checklist — four profitability tests (positive ROA, positive cash flow, improving ROA, cash flow exceeding net income), three leverage tests (declining debt ratio, improving current ratio, no share dilution), and two efficiency tests (improving gross margin, improving asset turnover). Each pass scores 1 point. 4970.T scores 8/9, signaling strong financial health across all three dimensions. The Beneish M-Score (1999) is an 8-variable model that detects earnings manipulation by comparing year-over-year changes in receivables, gross margins, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation, SG&A, leverage, and accruals. Scores above −1.78 statistically resemble past manipulators. 4970.T's score of -2.75 falls below this threshold, suggesting earnings are unlikely to be manipulated. The Ohlson O-Score (1980) is a 9-variable logistic regression that estimates bankruptcy probability using firm size, leverage, working capital, current ratio, profitability (ROA), cash flow coverage, negative equity flag, consecutive losses flag, and earnings trajectory. The raw score is converted to a probability via logistic transformation. 4970.T's implied 0.0% bankruptcy probability is well within safe territory. Our Credit Rating model scores companies on five weighted components — solvency (30%), earning power (25%), leverage (20%), liquidity (15%), and cash flow quality (10%) — then blends the absolute score with sector and industry peer rankings. For companies with large buyback programs, equity is adjusted by adding back cumulative 5-year repurchases (capped at 80% of FCF generated) to avoid penalizing shareholder-friendly capital allocation. 4970.T receives an estimated rating of BBB (score: 55.6/100), with a improving trend. The Earnings Quality score measures how well reported earnings are backed by real cash. It evaluates the operating cash flow to net income ratio (OCF/NI ≥ 1.0 means every dollar of earnings is cash-backed) and the accruals ratio (the gap between earnings and cash flow relative to assets — lower is better). 4970.T's score of 75/100 is high — cash flows strongly support reported earnings.

Valuation

Key valuation multiples comparing the stock's market price to its earnings, revenue, book value, and cash flows. Lower multiples may indicate relative undervaluation versus peers.

P/E
22.63x
PEG
0.45x
P/S
1.90x
P/B
2.97x
P/FCF
11.34x
P/OCF
11.34x
EV/EBITDA
12.60x
EV/Revenue
2.64x
EV/EBIT
22.43x
EV/FCF
14.39x
Earnings Yield
4.29%
FCF Yield
8.82%
Shareholder Yield
0.00%
Graham Number
$4598.32
Equity-based multiples (P/E, P/B, P/FCF) compare the stock price to per-share fundamentals and are affected by capital structure. Enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, EV/FCF) strip out debt and cash, making them more useful for cross-company comparisons regardless of how companies are financed. The Graham Number — √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value) — is Benjamin Graham's formula for the maximum price a defensive investor should pay. At 22.6x earnings, 4970.T commands a growth premium. Graham's intrinsic value formula yields $4598.32 per share, 134% below the current price.

DuPont Decomposition (5-Factor)

The 5-factor DuPont framework breaks Return on Equity into its component drivers — tax efficiency, interest burden, operating profitability, asset utilization, and financial leverage — to reveal what truly drives shareholder returns.

Tax Burden
0.782
NI / EBT
×
Interest Burden
0.968
EBT / EBIT
×
EBIT Margin
0.118
EBIT / Rev
×
Asset Turnover
0.599
Rev / Assets
×
Equity Multiplier
2.654
Assets / Equity
=
ROE
14.1%
The 5-factor DuPont identity decomposes ROE as: Tax Burden × Interest Burden × EBIT Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier = ROE. This reveals whether returns are driven by operating performance, financial leverage, or tax efficiency — three very different sources of profitability. 4970.T's ROE of 14.1% is driven by Asset Turnover (0.599), indicating efficient use of assets to generate revenue.

Graham-Dodd Adjusted Valuation

Our adaptation of Graham's growth formula (Fair P/E = 8.5 + 2g) from The Intelligent Investor. The classic version relies on analyst growth projections, which can be unreliable. This adjusted model substitutes the company's realized 3-year EPS CAGR — a backward-looking, verifiable measure of actual earnings power — grounding the valuation in demonstrated performance rather than forecasts.

Two adjustments we make, and why. Growth is capped at 15%. Graham defined g as expected growth over the next seven to ten years, not last year's rate. Across US companies since 1994 the median realized 7-year EPS growth is 5–8% regardless of how fast a company grew beforehand, and of 4,457 company-quarters that grew faster than 200%, none sustained it. Uncapped, the formula assigned fair multiples in the hundreds to companies that had never held that rate — and scored worse than simply reading the P/E. Capped, it carries real information. The verdict has three states, not two. Tested over 377,249 stock-months, this ratio only separates outcomes at its extremes: below 0.25 beat the universe by 1.3 points a year, above 3.0 lagged by 2.7, and everything in between sat inside a one-point band. Rather than call two-thirds of the market "undervalued" on a threshold of 1.0, we say Neutral where the model cannot tell — which is most of the time.

Adj. Growth Rate
15.00%
Fair P/E
38.50x
Intrinsic Value
$13612.03
Price/Value
0.61x
Margin of Safety
39.40%
Premium
-39.40%
Assessment
Neutral
Graham's classic formula uses analyst-projected growth to estimate a fair P/E (8.5 + 2g). Our adjusted version replaces that projection with 4970.T's realized 15.0% 3-year EPS CAGR, capped at 15% — demonstrated performance rather than forecasts, held to a rate companies have historically sustained. 4970.T trades at a -39% premium to its adjusted intrinsic value of $13612.03, suggesting the market is pricing in future growth beyond what historical earnings support. The adjusted fair P/E of 38.5x compares to the current market P/E of 22.6x.

Profitability Trends

Historical profitability ratios tracking how efficiently the company converts revenue into returns for shareholders over time.

Leverage & Solvency Trends

Debt and liquidity metrics showing the company's financial leverage and ability to meet short-term and long-term obligations.

Efficiency & Working Capital Trends

Operating efficiency metrics measuring how quickly the company converts inventory to sales, collects receivables, and manages its cash conversion cycle.

Growth Trends (YoY %)

Year-over-year growth rates for key financial metrics, showing the trajectory of revenue, earnings, and cash flow generation.

Earnings Stability

R-squared of linear regression measuring how predictably revenue, earnings, and margins follow a trend over the trailing 5 years. 1.0 = perfectly predictable; lower values indicate erratic or cyclical behavior.

Monte Carlo Price Simulation

Geometric Brownian Motion with 1,000 antithetic paths over 1 year, seeded from 1800 days of historical volatility. Percentile bands show the range of statistically plausible outcomes — this is a statistical model, not a forecast.

Current Price
$10780.00
Median 1Y
$11861.85
5th Pctile
$4380.77
95th Pctile
$32104.17
Ann. Volatility
57.8%
25th–75th percentile 5th–95th percentile Median path Historical
All Ratios & Metrics

Complete fundamental data with up to 20 periods of history, sparkline trends, and current values across 13 categories and 130+ financial metrics.

Profitability
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
ROE -20.6% -6.2% 1.5% 9.5% 7.0% 1.7% -0.9% -7.5% 1.0% 0.7% -1.9% -1.5% -7.2% -10.8% 3.6% 9.6% 18.0% 24.3% 12.9% 14.1% 14.15%
ROA -5.6% -1.7% 0.4% 2.5% 1.9% 0.4% -0.2% -1.9% 0.2% 0.2% -0.4% -0.3% -1.6% -2.3% 1.1% 3.1% 5.7% 7.8% 4.9% 5.3% 5.33%
ROIC -4.8% -0.3% 1.8% 5.0% 7.7% 6.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% -0.0% -0.1% -1.2% -1.6% 1.6% 4.2% 7.7% 9.4% 7.1% 7.6% 7.63%
ROCE -9.2% -1.8% 2.0% 5.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.3% -2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 0.9% 1.0% -1.1% -2.6% 3.7% 6.5% 10.0% 13.5% 9.4% 10.7% 10.66%
Gross Margin 14.0% 24.2% 23.9% 21.2% 18.8% 19.3% 20.6% 12.4% 23.5% 20.3% 14.4% 12.1% 13.5% 15.3% 29.2% 24.0% 25.1% 24.4% 19.8% 29.0% 28.97%
Operating Margin -1.5% 10.8% 8.1% 5.5% 1.9% 0.3% 4.3% -5.6% 6.4% 1.7% -3.4% -6.3% -2.1% -0.4% 16.7% 11.7% 13.7% 11.0% 6.2% 16.6% 16.55%
Net Margin -2.2% 7.4% 6.3% 4.0% -6.6% -1.0% 2.0% -8.4% 7.9% -1.6% -2.8% -6.9% -1.5% -6.9% 12.2% 6.1% 12.9% 7.3% 4.9% 10.0% 10.04%
EBITDA Margin 16.3% 20.6% 19.7% 18.3% 16.1% 1.9% 3.3% -6.3% 9.3% 1.7% -1.0% -5.2% 0.5% -0.4% 26.3% 17.8% 21.8% 20.4% 17.2% 24.0% 24.02%
FCF Margin 12.0% 18.3% 17.1% 12.0% 10.3% 3.7% -1.5% -6.8% -9.9% -13.9% -17.9% -21.5% -25.4% -20.3% -3.6% 6.7% 13.8% 17.5% 18.1% 18.3% 18.33%
OCF Margin 24.8% 25.2% 22.8% 17.5% 15.2% 12.9% 12.1% 11.3% 10.5% 10.8% 11.1% 11.2% 11.5% 10.1% 12.7% 14.4% 15.6% 17.5% 18.1% 18.3% 18.33%
ROE 3Y Avg snapshot only 6.06%
ROE 5Y Avg snapshot only 3.93%
ROA 3Y Avg snapshot only 2.36%
ROIC 3Y Avg snapshot only 3.31%
ROIC Economic snapshot only 7.10%
Cash ROA snapshot only 10.16%
Cash ROIC snapshot only 14.90%
CROIC snapshot only 14.90%
NOPAT Margin snapshot only 9.39%
Pretax Margin snapshot only 11.39%
R&D / Revenue snapshot only 3.79%
SGA / Revenue snapshot only 8.86%
SBC / Revenue snapshot only 0.00%
Valuation
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
P/E Ratio -2.54 -8.19 32.27 5.69 9.37 28.48 -49.06 -5.94 44.53 86.99 -22.68 -32.38 -6.13 -4.14 111.82 47.49 30.27 25.62 21.19 23.33 22.629
P/S Ratio 0.28 0.25 0.21 0.23 0.27 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.27 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.19 2.52 2.32 2.44 2.48 1.67 2.08 1.905
P/B Ratio 0.58 0.55 0.47 0.52 0.64 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.57 0.44 0.49 0.46 0.47 2.72 3.04 3.59 4.03 2.59 3.10 2.969
P/FCF 2.32 1.36 1.24 1.93 2.60 5.69 -13.84 -3.04 -1.99 -1.91 -1.12 -0.98 -0.76 -0.92 -69.87 34.67 17.73 14.19 9.23 11.34 11.337
P/OCF 1.12 0.98 0.93 1.33 1.76 1.61 1.70 1.83 1.88 2.46 1.81 1.89 1.68 1.84 19.84 16.11 15.61 14.19 9.23 11.34 11.337
EV/EBITDA 12.99 7.06 5.75 4.96 5.06 7.13 10.66 28.26 51.70 59.32 111.55 103.36 -137.72 -87.60 31.92 19.56 15.67 13.69 11.49 12.60 12.604
EV/Revenue 1.19 1.04 0.95 0.93 0.95 1.01 1.07 1.13 1.20 1.35 1.34 1.39 1.39 1.28 3.25 2.94 2.97 2.96 2.22 2.64 2.638
EV/EBIT -12.52 -60.67 50.57 17.77 29.74 73.76 354.84 -44.65 52.27 63.80 127.63 113.89 -114.25 -45.42 58.12 35.01 27.19 22.98 21.60 22.43 22.427
EV/FCF 10.00 5.69 5.56 7.77 9.18 27.52 -71.97 -16.67 -12.13 -9.68 -7.47 -6.46 -5.47 -6.33 -90.30 43.97 21.57 16.93 12.27 14.39 14.394
Earnings Yield -39.3% -12.2% 3.1% 17.6% 10.7% 3.5% -2.0% -16.8% 2.2% 1.1% -4.4% -3.1% -16.3% -24.2% 0.9% 2.1% 3.3% 3.9% 4.7% 4.3% 4.29%
FCF Yield 43.1% 73.7% 80.9% 51.7% 38.5% 17.6% -7.2% -32.9% -50.2% -52.3% -89.0% -1.0% -1.3% -1.1% -1.4% 2.9% 5.6% 7.0% 10.8% 8.8% 8.82%
PEG Ratio snapshot only 0.448
Price/Tangible Book snapshot only 3.262
EV/OCF snapshot only 14.394
EV/Gross Profit snapshot only 10.697
Acquirers Multiple snapshot only 21.969
Shareholder Yield snapshot only 0.00%
Graham Number snapshot only $4598.32
Leverage & Solvency
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Current Ratio 0.76 0.78 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.79 0.72 0.70 0.74 0.77 0.75 0.79 0.77 0.78 1.15 1.29 1.11 1.07 1.15 0.99 0.991
Quick Ratio 0.37 0.40 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.34 0.59 0.62 0.51 0.48 0.54 0.49 0.490
Debt/Equity 2.16 1.98 1.87 1.80 1.78 2.03 2.13 2.27 2.40 2.58 2.79 2.95 3.10 3.04 1.00 1.01 0.94 0.95 1.03 1.00 1.004
Net Debt/Equity 1.93 1.75 1.66 1.56 1.61 1.75 1.86 2.04 2.16 2.32 2.50 2.74 2.81 2.79 0.80 0.81 0.78 0.78 0.85 0.84 0.837
Debt/Assets 0.56 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.55 0.57 0.59 0.62 0.63 0.62 0.38 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.40 0.37 0.373
Debt/EBITDA 11.15 6.10 5.05 4.29 4.02 6.55 9.86 25.77 47.96 52.80 105.82 94.36 -130.35 -81.51 9.08 5.12 3.39 2.72 3.44 3.21 3.211
Net Debt/EBITDA 9.98 5.37 4.47 3.73 3.63 5.66 8.61 23.11 43.20 47.59 94.77 87.60 -118.55 -74.88 7.22 4.14 2.79 2.22 2.85 2.68 2.677
Interest Coverage -7.35 -1.52 1.80 5.30 3.37 1.38 0.28 -2.15 1.78 1.53 0.72 0.80 -0.77 -1.79 5.36 11.66 22.42 39.19 29.92 31.74 31.744
Equity Multiplier 3.88 3.72 3.60 3.54 3.61 4.06 4.22 4.49 4.39 4.53 4.69 4.74 4.89 4.92 2.63 2.61 2.60 2.60 2.61 2.69 2.694
Cash Ratio snapshot only 0.160
Debt Service Coverage snapshot only 56.482
Cash to Debt snapshot only 0.166
FCF to Debt snapshot only 0.273
Defensive Interval snapshot only 881.5 days
Efficiency & Turnover
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Asset Turnover 0.51 0.56 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.62 0.71 0.80 0.63 0.60 0.599
Inventory Turnover 2.37 2.41 2.72 2.75 2.86 2.50 2.48 2.50 2.48 2.14 2.20 2.27 2.31 2.35 2.01 2.21 2.52 2.73 2.27 2.12 2.118
Receivables Turnover 6.51 17.20 11.18 12.23 6.20 11.17 11.20 11.72 11.19 5.85 10.80 5.80 9.88 6.32 4.26 5.39 6.54 7.90 5.24 5.04 5.041
Payables Turnover 6.39 6.08 6.88 5.76 5.41 5.72 5.74 5.66 5.16 5.74 5.95 6.50 6.50 6.00 3.93 4.51 4.16 4.48 3.88 2.93 2.927
DSO 56 21 33 30 59 33 33 31 33 62 34 63 37 58 86 68 56 46 70 72 72.4 days
DIO 154 152 134 133 127 146 147 146 147 171 166 161 158 155 182 165 145 134 161 172 172.3 days
DPO 57 60 53 63 68 64 64 64 71 64 61 56 56 61 93 81 88 82 94 125 124.7 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 153 113 114 99 119 115 116 112 109 169 138 168 139 152 174 152 113 99 136 120 120.0 days
Fixed Asset Turnover snapshot only 0.959
Operating Cycle snapshot only 244.7 days
Cash Velocity snapshot only 8.940
Capital Intensity snapshot only 1.804
Growth (YoY)
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue 5.8% 2.0% 86.7% 31.5% 19.0% 5.8% 0.1% -3.3% -4.2% -1.5% -0.1% 3.8% 2.1% 5.7% 38.9% 68.1% 99.9% 1.2% 60.7% 29.7% 29.67%
Net Income -97.1% 69.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% -1.6% -1.8% -85.1% -58.9% -1.1% 80.4% -8.3% -16.6% 4.5% 13.6% 6.1% 5.7% 4.6% 1.4% 1.36%
EPS -97.1% 69.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% -1.7% -1.8% -85.1% -58.9% -1.1% 80.4% -8.3% -16.6% 4.5% 13.6% 6.1% 5.7% 4.6% 1.4% 1.36%
FCF 2.8% 3.1% 4.3% 4.2% 2.6% -78.8% -1.1% -1.5% -1.9% -4.7% -11.0% -2.3% -1.6% -54.0% 72.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 9.1% 2.6% 2.55%
EBITDA 13.1% 234.1% 4.8% 3.0% 1.4% 1.5% -39.2% -79.5% -88.1% -84.2% -88.1% -65.1% -1.4% -1.7% 10.8% 17.8% 38.5% 33.1% 2.1% 80.4% 80.38%
Op. Income -77.5% 93.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.9% 8.8% 11.4% -95.0% -77.1% -52.7% -1.0% -1.9% -2.6% -2.6% 380.4% 56.3% 10.5% 10.8% 2.2% 68.2% 68.20%
OCF Growth snapshot only 64.98%
Asset Growth snapshot only 17.34%
Equity Growth snapshot only 13.60%
Debt Growth snapshot only 13.05%
Shares Change snapshot only -0.00%
Dividend Growth snapshot only -1.00%
Growth (CAGR)
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue 3Y — — — — — — — — 97.6% 46.7% 23.1% 9.7% 5.2% 3.3% 11.6% 19.1% 25.1% 31.3% 30.7% 31.3% 31.29%
Revenue 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 73.6% 48.6% 33.1% 23.5% 23.53%
EPS 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 69.8% 26.4% 76.9% 2.1% — — —
EPS 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Net Income 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 68.5% 26.3% 76.8% 2.1% — — —
Net Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
EBITDA 3Y — — — — — — — — 59.4% 2.4% -24.9% -34.3% — — -5.0% 10.5% 25.6% 51.2% 62.7% 1.3% 1.28%
EBITDA 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1.3% 2.8% 72.6% 57.3% 57.30%
Gross Profit 3Y — — — — — — — — — — 1.8% 95.4% 33.8% 2.4% 16.9% 22.1% 29.7% 40.8% 37.7% 46.2% 46.20%
Gross Profit 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1.3% 86.7% 86.74%
Op. Income 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 40.6% 37.9% 52.8% 96.2% 1.0% 3.4% 3.45%
Op. Income 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
FCF 3Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -2.1% 37.8% 1.2% — — —
FCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 77.0% 77.00%
OCF 3Y — — — — — — — — 87.8% 34.4% 5.6% -14.1% -18.5% -23.8% -8.2% 11.5% 26.3% 45.2% 49.6% 54.5% 54.46%
OCF 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 82.4% 55.3% 33.8% 17.7% 17.67%
Assets 3Y — — — — — — — — 4.1% 5.2% 7.2% 7.1% 9.6% 8.1% 28.1% 28.4% 31.6% 25.1% 24.2% 26.2% 26.19%
Assets 5Y — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 14.9% 15.3% 16.8% 18.9% 18.92%
Equity 3Y — — — — — — — — -3.2% -3.1% 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% -1.6% 42.4% 42.2% 46.7% 45.1% 45.9% 49.6% 49.59%
Book Value 3Y — — — — — — — — -2.5% -2.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.3% -0.8% 43.5% 42.2% 46.8% 45.2% 46.0% 49.7% 49.69%
Dividend 3Y — — — — — — — — 7.9% 59.8% 27.0% 11.0% 0.9% -3.5% -13.8% -27.8% -49.9% — — — —
Growth Quality
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Revenue Stability — — — — 0.88 0.81 0.75 0.63 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.60 0.45 0.78 0.60 0.60 0.82 0.76 0.84 0.81 0.811
Earnings Stability — — — — 0.38 0.97 0.68 0.33 0.43 0.82 0.49 0.29 0.19 0.23 0.60 0.55 0.53 0.55 0.75 0.74 0.743
Margin Stability — — — — 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.32 0.00 0.06 0.40 0.46 0.60 0.79 0.93 0.88 0.19 0.22 0.48 0.51 0.510
Rev. Growth Consistency 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
Earn. Growth Consistency 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF Positive Streak 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Earnings Persistence — — — — 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.500
Earnings Smoothness — — — — — — — — 0.00 0.16 — — — — — — — — 0.00 0.19 0.189
ROE Trend — — — — 0.23 0.14 0.11 0.04 0.09 0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.11 -0.13 0.04 0.11 0.15 0.21 0.12 0.11 0.109
Gross Margin Trend — — — — 0.21 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.06 -0.06 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.045
FCF Margin Trend — — — — 0.27 0.08 -0.05 -0.14 -0.21 -0.25 -0.26 -0.24 -0.26 -0.15 0.06 0.21 0.31 0.35 0.29 0.26 0.257
Sustainable Growth Rate — — 1.5% 9.5% 7.0% 1.5% — — 0.2% -0.1% — — — — 3.4% 9.4% 18.0% 24.3% 12.9% 14.1% 14.15%
Internal Growth Rate — — 0.4% 2.6% 1.9% 0.4% — — 0.1% — — — — — 1.1% 3.1% 6.1% 8.4% 5.2% 5.6% 5.63%
Cash Flow Quality
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
OCF/Net Income -2.28 -8.31 34.88 4.29 5.32 17.64 -28.83 -3.25 23.66 35.31 -12.52 -17.16 -3.65 -2.25 5.64 2.95 1.94 1.81 2.30 2.06 2.058
FCF/OCF 0.48 0.73 0.75 0.69 0.68 0.28 -0.12 -0.60 -0.94 -1.29 -1.61 -1.92 -2.20 -2.00 -0.28 0.46 0.88 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000
FCF/Net Income snapshot only 2.058
OCF/EBITDA snapshot only 0.876
CapEx/Revenue 12.9% 6.9% 5.7% 5.5% 4.9% 9.3% 13.5% 18.0% 20.4% 24.7% 29.0% 32.7% 37.0% 30.4% 16.3% 7.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
CapEx/Depreciation snapshot only 0.000
Accruals Ratio -0.18 -0.16 -0.13 -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.07 -0.08 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.05 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.056
Sloan Accruals snapshot only -0.152
Earnings Quality Score snapshot only 0.750
Dividends & Buybacks
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.42%
Dividend/Share $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $1.49 $2.98 $4.46 $5.95 $5.97 $5.97 $5.97 $5.98 $5.23 $3.74 $2.24 $0.75 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $45.00
Payout Ratio — — 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% — — 75.6% 1.1% — — — — 6.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
FCF Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% — — — — — — — — — 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Payout Ratio — — 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% — — 75.6% 1.1% — — — — 7.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Div. Increase Streak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 — — — —
Chowder Number -0.80 -0.89 -0.90 -0.93 -0.74 73.75 168.17 353.93 694.87 3.00 1.02 0.35 0.02 -0.11 -0.37 -0.62 -0.87 — — — —
Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Net Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
Total Shareholder Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00%
DuPont Factors
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Tax Burden (NI/EBT) 1.01 1.06 0.79 0.96 1.28 1.95 0.54 0.93 0.44 0.42 2.14 2.21 1.12 1.02 0.49 0.64 0.77 0.77 0.79 0.78 0.782
Interest Burden (EBT/EBIT) 1.14 1.66 0.44 0.81 0.70 0.28 -2.57 1.47 0.44 0.35 -0.40 -0.24 2.31 1.56 0.81 0.91 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.968
EBIT Margin -0.10 -0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.10 0.12 0.118
Asset Turnover 0.51 0.56 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.62 0.71 0.80 0.63 0.60 0.599
Equity Multiplier 3.69 3.62 3.75 3.77 3.74 3.89 3.92 4.01 4.01 4.30 4.45 4.61 4.63 4.71 3.16 3.14 3.15 3.12 2.62 2.65 2.654
Per Share
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
EPS (Diluted TTM) $-166.38 $-50.69 $11.41 $74.04 $52.99 $13.25 $-7.47 $-60.55 $7.87 $5.45 $-15.83 $-11.89 $-57.50 $-84.81 $55.87 $149.58 $293.20 $396.79 $314.53 $353.56 $353.56
Book Value/Share $723.98 $757.16 $776.35 $812.91 $781.76 $824.39 $828.11 $792.48 $824.70 $827.74 $812.70 $782.05 $774.55 $739.21 $2292.97 $2339.74 $2474.74 $2524.66 $2576.46 $2657.99 $3631.21
Tangible Book/Share $653.25 $690.95 $714.37 $753.84 $726.16 $773.18 $779.51 $747.03 $783.50 $788.39 $765.76 $739.64 $733.24 $697.30 $2224.31 $2270.36 $2398.14 $2442.26 $2453.36 $2528.47 $2528.47
Revenue/Share $1526.51 $1671.38 $1745.06 $1810.49 $1855.89 $1806.21 $1784.34 $1750.69 $1778.10 $1781.62 $1786.13 $1821.07 $1818.96 $1882.74 $2481.58 $3061.07 $3636.56 $4099.20 $3988.75 $3969.43 $5659.00
FCF/Share $182.42 $305.76 $297.77 $217.70 $191.11 $66.26 $-26.47 $-118.40 $-175.83 $-247.84 $-319.50 $-391.17 $-462.84 $-381.66 $-89.42 $204.90 $500.63 $716.34 $722.24 $727.58 $0.00
OCF/Share $378.58 $421.37 $398.01 $317.41 $281.79 $233.62 $215.21 $197.06 $186.28 $192.45 $198.28 $204.10 $209.92 $190.82 $314.90 $441.02 $568.54 $716.34 $722.24 $727.58 $0.00
Cash/Share $163.67 $177.75 $165.88 $191.25 $135.37 $227.47 $222.66 $186.19 $196.32 $210.33 $236.50 $165.22 $217.14 $182.79 $470.23 $453.77 $409.77 $442.24 $455.34 $444.01 $469.71
EBITDA/Share $140.36 $246.57 $288.02 $340.80 $346.91 $255.67 $178.72 $69.85 $41.25 $40.43 $21.40 $24.44 $-18.39 $-27.58 $252.96 $460.62 $688.95 $886.31 $771.77 $830.89 $830.89
Debt/Share $1564.33 $1502.95 $1454.24 $1460.93 $1393.77 $1673.47 $1761.31 $1800.30 $1978.33 $2134.45 $2264.23 $2305.91 $2397.37 $2247.82 $2297.73 $2360.10 $2333.84 $2407.23 $2653.95 $2668.20 $2668.20
Net Debt/Share $1400.66 $1325.19 $1288.37 $1269.68 $1258.40 $1446.00 $1538.65 $1614.11 $1782.01 $1924.12 $2027.72 $2140.69 $2180.23 $2065.03 $1827.50 $1906.32 $1924.07 $1965.00 $2198.60 $2224.19 $2224.19
Academic Models
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Altman Z-Score — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2.305
Altman Z-Prime snapshot only 3.364
Piotroski F-Score 6 7 9 9 9 7 4 4 5 5 4 6 4 5 9 9 9 9 6 8 8
Beneish M-Score -3.74 -4.50 -3.32 -3.24 -2.92 -2.78 -2.77 -2.55 -3.73 -170.69 -191.28 -2.64 -2.39 -2.56 -1.52 -1.60 -1.60 -1.64 -2.57 -2.75 -2.754
Ohlson O-Score snapshot only -8.149
ROIC (Greenblatt) snapshot only 11.35%
Net-Net WC snapshot only $-1746.79
EVA snapshot only $-917088753.03
Credit
Metric Trend Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Current
Credit Rating snapshot only BBB
Credit Score 11.80 15.53 24.03 31.95 28.54 14.81 11.18 9.13 15.02 15.19 10.73 10.76 15.23 15.39 39.04 50.26 63.29 64.71 58.19 55.64 55.640
Credit Grade snapshot only 9
Credit Trend snapshot only 5.380
Implied Spread (bps) snapshot only 275.000
Industry Credit Rank snapshot only 38
Sector Credit Rank snapshot only 46

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